Cnotes 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 15
December 20, 2016


Overall Notes


NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 15 RESULTS


Wager Favorites-Underdogs


Straight Up 12-4
Against the Spread 8-8


Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-9
Against the Spread 5-11


Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-9


The largest underdogs to win straight up
Panthers (+7, ML +250) at Redskins, 26-15
Titans (+6, ML +220) at Chiefs, 19-17
Colts (+5, ML +200) at Vikings, 34-6

The largest favorite to cover
Seahawks (-15.5) vs. Rams, 24-3
Falcons (-14) vs. 49ers, 41-13
Bills (-10.5) vs. Browns, 33-13


Buffalo Wings


-- The Buffalo Bills slapped the brakes on a three-game non-cover skid, pounding the winless Cleveland Browns by a 33-13 score. It was also the fourth consecutive 'over' result for the Bills, and the ninth over in the past 10 games for Buffalo. The Bills have scored 20 or more points in four straight, and 11 of the past 13 games. Next up is a home game against the Miami Dolphins. The last time these teams faced each other it was a 28-25 loss in Miami as the 'over' cashed in Week 7.

Grin And Bear It


-- The Chicago Bears fell short in their comeback against the Green Bay Packers, but the results were good against the number. Chicago picked up its fifth consecutive cover in the 30-27 loss, erasing a 17-point deficit entering the final quarter. The Bears will host the Washington Redskins in the final home game at Soldier Field. The Bears are 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS at home, four in a row in Chicago. The 'under' is 2-4-1 in Chicago's seven home games this season, although the 'over' easily hit in Sunday's game with the Pack.


Total Recall

-- The 'under' edged out the 'over' 9-7 after Monday's low-scoring game between the Carolina Panthers-Washington Redskins (50.5). In seven games between AFC foes, the 'under' edged the 'over' 4-3. In seven NFC battles the 'under' edges out the 'over' 4-3 after the MNF game. In two AFC vs. NFC games the 'over/under' has split 1-1.


-- Three games in Week 15 had a total of 50 or higher, including Monday's game between the Panthers and Redskins. The 'under' went 2-1, with only the San Francisco-Atlanta (51.5) inching over the mark with a late fourth quarter field by the Falcs, keeping up the West Coast teams in the Eastern Time Zone trend. The 'over' is 4-0 for the 49ers in games in the Eastern Time Zone this season, and the over is 15-4 (78.9%) with Pacific Coast Time Zone teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone.


-- The other game in Sunday's slate with a 50-point total was the Oakland-San Diego (50) game, and the 'over' was never threatened in this field goal fest. In fact, neither side had more than seven points in any one quarter. The third-highest game on the board, the New Orleans-Arizona (48) game was the highest scoring game in the NFL this season, as the Saints won it 48-41.


-- There were four games with totals of 40 or less, and the 'over' went 3-1 in those games. The lone exception was Thursday's snoozefest between Los Angeles-Seattle (39.5), mainly due to the ineptitude of the Rams offensive unit. Miami-N.Y. Jets (39.5) had an identical total as LA-SEA, but it went over Saturday night. The Dolphins have hit the 'over' in four straight, and seven of the past eight.

-- The 'over/under' split 2-2 in the four primetime games after Monday's tussle between the Panthers-Redskins (50). Officially, the 'over' is 22-24 (47.8%) through 46 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.


Injury Report

-- Steelers TE Ladarius Green (concussion) checked out of Sunday's game in Cincinnati to be evaluated for concussion.


-- Broncos TE Virgil Green (concussion) left Sunday's game in the first half against New England due to a concussion and he was unable to return.


-- 49ers WR Quinton Patton (foot) was forced out of the blowout loss in Atlanta due to a foot injury sustained in the first half and he was unable to return.


-- Vikings WR Adam Thielen (neck) left the Week 15 game against the Colts early in the first half due to a neck injury and he did not come back.


Looking Ahead


-- The Eagles host the Giants Thursday night. The Eagles opened as a five-point favorite as they look to avenge a 28-23 loss in New Jersey back in Week 9. The Eagles have won four of the past five in this series, and they're also 4-1 ATS during the span. As far as the total is concerned, the 'over' is 3-1 in the past four meetings between the sides, although the 'under' has connected in six straight meetings at Lincoln Financial Field. The last 'under' between these NFC East rivals in Philadelphia took place Nov. 1, 2009.


-- Remember the West Coast team playing on the East Coast in Week 16 when San Diego visits Cleveland. The 'under' is actually 5-1 in Cleveland's past six games overall, and 4-0 in their past four home games, so the trend will be put to the test. The 'under' is also 3-0-1 in the past four for San Diego. The total opened at 44.


-- The Patriots host the Jets in Week 16, returning home after clinching the AFC East Division title with a win in Denver. The Jets are 1-4 SU over the past five meetings, including Week 12 in New Jersey. However, the Jets covered in that meeting, and are now 6-0-1 ATS in the past seven in the series, and 11-5-1 ATS in the past 17. The 'over' is 6-1 in the past seven meetings at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro.


-- Tampa Bay and New Orleans meet for the second time in three weeks. The Bucs exorcised some demons with a 16-11 win in Week 14 at the Ray Jay. The Bucs have won two of the past three in this series, and they're 4-1 ATS over the past five meetings. The 'under' is a perfect 4-0 in the past four in the series, and the 'under' is 6-2 in the past eight meetings in NOLA.

 

[CNOTES]

Bettors stay hot, win Week 15
December 19, 2016


The NFL's 15th week of the regular season action saw the Patriots clinch an NFL record eighth straight division title and the Raiders clinch their first playoff appearance since 2002, and at the same time those two teams helped clinch another losing week for the majority of Las Vegas sports books.


If you're keeping score at home, that's seven of the last nine weeks most books have lost or broke even which makes it the most horrendous NFL season Las Vegas has ever seen.


"Outside of the Steelers, we won all the morning games, but they were small wins -- all under six figures," said MGM Resorts race and sports VP Jay Rood. "We lost every afternoon game and the total losses were more than double what we won in the morning. The worst was the Patriots and the Falcons which were both over six-figure losses by themselves."


The Falcons' 41-13 home win over the 49ers (+13.5) was the eighth time this season that they have covered and gone 'over' the the total (52) in 14 games this season and the public has been jumping on the 13/5 two-team parlay (Bet $100 to win $260) all year once the trend got rolling with the NFL's highest scoring team. In Sunday's case, they were playing a San Francisco defense that allows the most points in the league.


The Patriots (-3) grinded out a 16-3 win at Denver, where they lost twice last season, but the public was correct with the Broncos having trouble running the ball and being able to score despite multiple opportunities given to them.


The NFL is supposed to gravy for the books with parity and the spreads being the equalizer, but not this year and the steam roller kept going with the popular teams. The Raiders were one of them, however, one sports book was able to escape the wrath of the Death Star.


"We had a 9-to-1 ticket and cash count on the Raiders, but we never moved off of 3, so that helped us a little bit," said Stratosphere oddsmaker Hugh Citron. "We had hardly anything on the Chargers."


The Raiders ticket count disparity in Las Vegas was just like the San Diego residents fan appeal at the game where Charger fans were scarce at Qualcomm (Jack Murphy) Stadium. I've seen some massively weighted fan support for road teams at Arizona over the past 20 years, but nothing like the roar Raider Nation provided Sunday in their 19-16 win. There hasn't been a decibel level at that place like we saw Sunday for the Raiders since Leon Durham muffed a grounder in the 1984 NLCS.


The Stratosphere's move to stay with Oakland at -3 afforded them the ability to push on the game meaning they weren't paying on large parlays as much as other places that had the Raiders -2.5 because a few sharp bettors had shown an interest in the Chargers at +3.


The Stratosphere, along with the Golden Nugget, were the lone Rangers on Sunday that showed a profit in Vegas.


When Golden Nugget book boss Tony Miller was asked if he survived on the day, he was happy to report that the epidemic throughout the town didn't hit his downtown and Laughlin books.


"No, we had a great day today," Miller said. "We still need the Cowboys, but no matter what happens we're going to be a winner."


The Buccaneers would cover +7 in a 26-20 loss at Dallas which kept the total 'under' 47.5 and didn't help many books. Once a public team, Dallas has quickly lost favor with them after failing to cover its last four games. Tampa Bay had its five-game win streak end, but have covered the last six.


"We needed a Dallas blowout win," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. "All other results were bad. Teasers take their toll."


The four-way teaser win with each side and total cashed in that game. It was another dagger into the hearts of most books. However, MGM books weren't affected by it.


"We didn't lose on parlays (or teasers), which is kind of surprising," said Rood. "Most the damage done was on straight bets."


And the crazy thing was that the winless Browns weren't the recipients of being the most hated team in league by the books despite dropping to 0-8 ATS in their last eight games in a 33-13 loss at Buffalo (-10.5).


Sharp money left Cleveland alone for the first time weeks and they were right to do so. However, the public still threw whoever the Browns were playing and whoever the 49ers were playing in their parlays, and cashed again. Those two dregs of the NFL have now gone a combined 4-23-1 ATS this season and the public has been all over it.


"The wise guys aren't the ones beating us. It's the $20 to $100 bettor with the parlays," said Westgate SuperBook VP Jay Korneagy. "They take a regular three teamer and then add whatever teams are playing the Browns and 49ers every week to make it a five-teamer."


That's a tough road to finagle and the books can't make up 20-to-1 five team parlay payout odds every week and that's what been happening this season.


Overall in Week 15, the favorites went 6-7 against the spread and the popular 'over' plays cashed, including cold weather games at Chicago, where the Bears (+4.5) covered their fifth straight game in a 30-27 loss to the Packers and at Buffalo in the Bills (-10.5) win against the Browns. The Bears cover helped the books a ton on Sunday.


The casino bean counters are asking questions weekly what can be done to stop the slide in the books, and they hate that they can't forecast book numbers to an exact science like they do table games and slots, but it is what it is. Every once in a while there's a hiccup. Last season was one of the best NFL seasons for the books, but the tide has definitely turned in 2016.


The best piece of optimism I can offer to all my bookie friends fielding questions in executive meetings -- with the tiresome bean counter questions -- is that 2017 is going to look so much better in month over month comparisons. There's only one way to go and it's up.


There's only one more NFL Sunday to go before the ledgers are closed on 2016 and it comes early on Saturday, Dec. 24 with 12 games and two more on Christmas.

 

[CNOTES]

Texans' QB Savage to start Saturday
December 19, 2016


HOUSTON (AP) Tom Savage will start at quarterback for the Houston Texans on Saturday against the Cincinnati Bengals.


Coach Bill O'Brien announced the decision on Monday, a day after Savage took over in the second quarter when Brock Osweiler was benched against the Jacksonville Jaguars.


Savage threw for 260 yards to help Houston rally from a 13-point deficit for a 21-20 win in his first regular-season action since 2014.


O'Brien wouldn't say if he planned to start Savage for the rest of the season, saying the team is focused on the Bengals.


Osweiler has struggled in his first season in Houston after signing a $72 million contract to join the Texans from Denver. He threw two interceptions before he was benched on Sunday to give him 16 interceptions and just 14 touchdowns this season.


---------------------------------


Jaguars name Marrone interim coach
December 19, 2016


JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) The Jacksonville Jaguars have named Doug Marrone interim coach for the final two games of the season.


General manager Dave Caldwell made the announcement Monday, a day after owner Shad Khan fired coach Gus Bradley.


Marrone served as Jacksonville's assistant head coach/offensive line coach the past two seasons. Before that, he was Buffalo's head coach for two seasons (2013-14). Marrone went 15-17 with the Bills.


Owner Shad Khan fired Bradley following the team's ninth consecutive loss Sunday, ending one of the least successful coaching tenures in NFL history. Bradley went 14-48 in four seasons in Jacksonville, the worst winning percentage (.225) of any NFL coach with at least 60 games.


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Close isn't good enough for the Eagles
December 19, 2016


PHILADELPHIA (AP) The Philadelphia Eagles are 5-9, have glaring weaknesses and several holes to fill during the offseason.


Still, they may not be too far away based on six losses in one-score games.


Every NFL team can play the ''what if'' game and come up with more wins, but the Eagles could point to one play that would've changed the outcome in five different losses.


''It seems like it comes down to one or two plays every game,'' Carson Wentz said. ''We just need to keep building on our success.''


The play that will stand out most occurred Sunday in a 27-26 loss at Baltimore. If Wentz connected with Jordan Matthews across the middle on a win-or-lose 2-point conversion attempt with 4 seconds left, the Eagles win 28-27 instead.


Same story last week in a 27-22 loss to Washington. If Wentz throws a touchdown pass from the Redskins 14 instead of losing a fumble on the final drive, the Eagles would've won.


In Week 9, Wentz threw four straight incomplete passes from the Giants 17 with under two minutes left in a 28-23 loss. He just missed Matthews in the end zone on his last pass in that one. One completion equals a win.


A week earlier, the Eagles blew a 10-point, fourth-quarter lead in a 29-23 overtime loss at Dallas. If coach Doug Pederson allowed Caleb Sturgis to try a 51-yard field goal with 6:34 left and he connected - Sturgis made one from 55 earlier in the game - instead of punting away, perhaps Philadelphia wins that game.


In Week 5, Ryan Mathews fumbled after running for a first down with the Eagles leading the Lions and 2:34 left. If Mathews secures the ball, the Eagles could've run out the clock and won that one.


But none of those plays went Philadelphia's way so they are what their record says they are, as Bill Parcells once said.


''It was a couple of plays here and there,'' linebacker Nigel Bradham said. ''It seems like it's been like that the last few weeks for us. We've got to win these close games. It's something we haven't done this season. We've been in all the games, pretty much. We've just got to win these close ones. That's all it is.''


The Eagles have no time to dwell on what-ifs or a five-game losing streak. They have to get back to work and prepare for a home game against the Giants (10-4) on Thursday night.


''We got a quick turnaround,'' Wentz said. ''We just have to move on from this one as quickly as we can and get ourselves ready to go.''

NOTES: Pederson said he plans to start RT Lane Johnson vs. the Giants. Johnson was reinstated Monday after serving a 10-game suspension for violating the league's policy on performance enhancing drugs. ... RB Kenjon Barner won't play because of a hamstring strain.


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Titans lose DL Klug to torn Achilles
December 19, 2016


Tennessee Titans defensive lineman Karl Klug has a torn left Achilles tendon and will have season-ending surgery, coach Mike Mularkey announced Monday.


Klug, 28, will be placed on injured reserve.


Klug suffered a strained Achilles injury in the Titans' 13-10 victory over the Denver Broncos on Dec. 11 and further damaged the tendon during the second half of Sunday's 19-17 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs.


A fifth-round pick by the Titans in 2011, Klug has 20 career sacks and 110 tackles in 94 career games. He had 26 tackles and 1.5 sacks this season.


Klug re-signed with the Titans as a free agent in the offseason and will become a free agent again when this season is over.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL opening line report: Ravens at Steelers highlights Week 16


"The Steelers have been attracting so much public action that we had to factor that into our opening number."


Bettors will hope to stuff their stockings with winnings from the Week 16 NFL slate. We talk with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag., about four key games this Christmas week.


Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)


Pittsburgh is on a five-game SU and ATS surge that has put it atop the AFC North heading into this pivotal contest. The Steelers (9-5 SU and ATS) rallied from a 17-3 deficit at Cincinnati on Sunday to snare a 24-20 victory as a 3-point favorite.


Baltimore (8-6 SU, 6-8 ATS) edged Philadelphia 27-26 when the Eagles, after scoring a last-seconds touchdown, opted to go for the 2-point conversion and failed.
The Ravens, who beat Pittsburgh on Nov. 6, can reclaim first place – based on tiebreakers – with a road win this week, but are ostensibly in a must-win situation.


“Massive game for both teams, essentially an elimination game for the Ravens,” Childs said. “Historically, these games have always been competitive and go down to the wire. That said, the Steelers have been attracting so much public action that we had to factor that into our opening number.


“We have the Steelers a good 2 points higher in our power ratings. Throw in home field, and we thought of an opening number of 5. But knowing the history of this series, we felt 5 was just too much and decided to open at 4.5, which is our current number. So far, we’re seeing a bit more Ravens money than Steelers, but nothing major and certainly not enough to move the number.”


Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)


With two victories over Oakland this season, Kansas City had control of the AFC West, but gave away all that leverage in Week 15. The Chiefs (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS) blew a 14-0 first-quarter lead against Tennessee, netting just a field goal the rest of the way and losing on a last-second field goal 19-17 laying 6 points at home.


Defending Super Bowl champion Denver (8-6 SU and ATS) is in a very precarious spot to return to the playoffs. The Broncos had two key turnovers that turned into 10 New England points Sunday in a 16-3 home loss as a 3-point pup. So Denver, which fell at home to K.C. 30-27 in overtime in Week 12, can’t take a loss in this Christmas night showdown.


“Both teams coming off tough losses, and the Broncos now have a major uphill battle to make the playoffs. It’s a must-win for them, but they simple cannot move the ball on offense,” Childs said. “They’ve scored just 13 points over their past two games, and things don’t get easier going into Kansas City with an offense that can’t run the ball. It’s tough to win on the road in the NFL with no running game.


“We have the Chiefs 2 points higher in our ratings, and we give the Chiefs 3.5 points for home field. We only give more than 3 points for home field on a handful of teams, such as the Seahawks and Chiefs. So our raw number was 5.5 points, but with all the anti-Broncos money we just booked in their game against the Pats, we wanted to open a touch high, so we opened at 6. We did take very sharp action on the Broncos +6, with the public supporting them too, so we moved straight from 6 to 5 on the Chiefs.”


Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys, no line


Detroit has arguably been the biggest surprise of the season and is still atop the NFC North, but has some work to do to stay there after a lackluster Week 15 effort. The Lions (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) lost to the New York Giants 17-6 as a 4-point road pup, ending a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS).


Dallas (12-2 SU, 9-5 ATS) will look to nail down home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a Week 16 win. The Cowboys rebounded from a Week 14 loss at the New York Giants – their first setback since falling to the Giants in Week 1 – by fending off Tampa Bay 26-20 Sunday night as a 6.5-point chalk.


“With the Cowboys playing Sunday night, no line yet,” Childs said, noting Sportsbook.ag will post the number Monday. “The preliminary line on them is about 7, maybe 7.5.”


Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-7)


A month ago, Green Bay was reeling at 4-6 SU. Now, the Packers are on a 4-0 SU run (3-1 ATS) and back in the NFC North hunt. Green Bay (8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) let a 27-10 lead at Chicago melt away in frigid temperatures Sunday, but a big long ball from Aaron Rodgers late in the game led to a field goal that secured a 30-27 victory as a 4.5-point fave.


Meanwhile, Minnesota (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS) continued to watch its playoff hopes fade away. The Vikings, who started the season 5-0 SU and ATS, got hammered at home Sunday by Indianapolis, 34-6 giving 5 points.


“The Vikings are another team that just can’t move the ball on offense. They can’t run the ball worth a lick, and teams that can’t run don’t win on the road in the NFL,” Childs said. “The Packers have been a monster public team the last few weeks, but they didn’t cash today, which might take some of the luster off them going forward. But we have to question the Vikes’ motivation against the Packers, who have to win if they want to win their division and continue their road to the playoffs.


“We have the Packers a solid 3.5 points higher in our ratings over the Vikings. Tack on 3 points for home field, and our raw number was 6.5, but with the big motivation edge going to the Packers, we decided to open on the key number of 7 and see what happens. So far, we’ve seen decent two-way action at that number, and we haven’t moved off it.”

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet


Week 16


Thursday, December 22


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NY GIANTS (10 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 9) - 12/22/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 40-20 ATS (+18.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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Saturday, December 24


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WASHINGTON (7 - 5 - 1) at CHICAGO (3 - 11) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 31-50 ATS (-24.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 58-90 ATS (-41.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
CHICAGO is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
CHICAGO is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in home games against NFC East division opponents since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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MIAMI (9 - 5) at BUFFALO (7 - 7) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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TAMPA BAY (8 - 6) at NEW ORLEANS (6 - 8) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 30-51 ATS (-26.1 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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ATLANTA (9 - 5) at CAROLINA (5 - 8) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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MINNESOTA (7 - 7) at GREEN BAY (8 - 6) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 104-77 ATS (+19.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 179-127 ATS (+39.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 64-38 ATS (+22.2 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 59-36 ATS (+19.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-2 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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NY JETS (4 - 10) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 2) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 60-39 ATS (+17.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 58-36 ATS (+18.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
NY JETS are 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
NY JETS are 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 4-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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TENNESSEE (8 - 6) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 12) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 28-49 ATS (-25.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 3-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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SAN DIEGO (5 - 9) at CLEVELAND (0 - 14) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 92-66 ATS (+19.4 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) as an underdog this season.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games this season.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 7) at OAKLAND (11 - 3) - 12/24/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 72-101 ATS (-39.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 72-101 ATS (-39.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 56-81 ATS (-33.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 72-101 ATS (-39.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 32-58 ATS (-31.8 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 31-55 ATS (-29.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 13) at LA RAMS (4 - 10) - 12/24/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 23-41 ATS (-22.1 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS is 175-222 ATS (-69.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 175-222 ATS (-69.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-174 ATS (-65.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 57-88 ATS (-39.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


ARIZONA (5 - 8 - 1) at SEATTLE (9 - 4 - 1) - 12/24/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 66-36 ATS (+26.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 4-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


CINCINNATI (5 - 8 - 1) at HOUSTON (8 - 6) - 12/24/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
HOUSTON is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, December 25


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BALTIMORE (8 - 6) at PITTSBURGH (9 - 5) - 12/25/2016, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 100-69 ATS (+24.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 87-61 ATS (+19.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 97-71 ATS (+18.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 4-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 5-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


DENVER (8 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (10 - 4) - 12/25/2016, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-2 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Monday, December 26


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


DETROIT (9 - 5) at DALLAS (12 - 2) - 12/26/2016, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Week 16


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, December 22


8:25 PM
NY GIANTS vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games on the road
NY Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games



Saturday, December 24

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. NEW ENGLAND
NY Jets are 4-7-2 ATS in their last 13 games on the road
NY Jets are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games on the road
New England is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
New England is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games when playing NY Jets


1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. CHICAGO
Washington is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games ,on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 9 games when playing Washington


1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. JACKSONVILLE
Tennessee is 1-4-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games at home


1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. CLEVELAND
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing San Diego
Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home


1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Atlanta's last 21 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games ,
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing Atlanta


1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 10 games on the road
Green Bay is 19-5 SU in its last 24 games at home
Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota


1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. BUFFALO
Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Miami is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Buffalo is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Buffalo is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami


4:05 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis


4:25 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Tampa Bay's last 16 games when playing New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay


4:25 PM
ARIZONA vs. SEATTLE
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Arizona


4:25 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. LOS ANGELES
San Francisco is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
San Francisco is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Los Angeles is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home


8:25 PM
CINCINNATI vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 4-10-2 ATS in its last 16 games
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games




Sunday, December 25


4:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore


8:30 PM
DENVER vs. KANSAS CITY
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 10 games




Monday, December 26


8:30 PM
DETROIT vs. DALLAS
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Dallas is 6-12-2 ATS in its last 20 games at home




----------------------------------------------------------------

 

[CNOTES]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 16 NFL lines are going to move


The Jags’ underperforming offense combined with the Titans’ still-suspect offense make this one an attractive option for under players.


Game to bet now


New York Giants at Philadelphia (+2.5) (Thursday)


Never get in the way of a runaway train, and that’s pretty much the Eagles’ problem at this point of the season. Five straight losses (and 7 in the last 8), combined with solid seasons from Dallas and the Giants, have relegated Philadelphia to Baltic Ave. status in the NFC East. By contrast, the Giants are on one of their don’t-you-dare-forget-us late-season rolls and have an outside shot at winning the division and actually robbing the Cowboys of the overall No. 1 playoff seed in the conference. With defense as its calling card, New York has won 8 of 9 and is crushing it defensively with the league’s third-best defense in points allowed (17.9/game). The game opened at 3, then surprisingly moved to 2.5 – a gift for NY backers.


Game to wait on


San Diego at Cleveland (+6) (Saturday)


San Diego’s ownership may be talking about turning out the lights and moving, but the Chargers showed some life in an overtime loss to Oakland last Sunday. San Diego’s reward was a trip to Cleveland, where the Browns’ road to nowhere season plays out its string. More amazing than Cleveland’s 0-14 SU record is the fact that the Brownies have not had a single home cover (0-7) this season. Browns fans are so upset that they have been campaigning for the league to not televise Cleveland games, and instead show Steelers games. Pretty bad. This line may not be done moving, so there’s no harm in holding off.


Total to watch


Tennessee at Jacksonville (44) (Saturday)


The AFC South is fertile ground for any team that can win even two games in a row, and the Titans have surprised everyone with three straight – including stunning back-to-back victories over Denver and Kansas City. And Tennessee has been doing it without putting up a ton of points – the Titans had a total of only 32 in the Broncos/Chiefs parlay. You have to wonder how much offensive game-planning is going on in Jacksonville, where a fed-up management pulled the plug on coach Gus Bradley and gave the keys to Doug Marrone. J-Ville was a chic pick to make some noise in the wide-open South, but never got any traction. The Jags’ underperforming offense combined with the Titans’ still-suspect offense make this one an attractive option for under players.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Week 16 lines that make you go hmmm...

Are books putting too much weight in the Ravens-Steelers rivalry and not focusing on how those teams are currently playing? Our Vegas oddsmaker thinks so.


Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 16:

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (+2, 41.5)


Philadelphia has now lost five straight heading into Week 16 and it’s the defense which has been particularly poor. Allowing 26, 27, 32, 27 and 27 points while averaging 18 points per game isn’t such a difficult trend to spot. Philadelphia, now out of the playoffs, still will be incentivized to play somewhat against an arch-rival and being at home.


The Giants are quietly having a banner year with 10 wins under their belt. New York is a winner of two straight and eight of nine games heading into play, and the defense has been sensational. In four wins in their past five games, the G-Men have held its opponents to 16, 13, 7 and six points. It’s hard not to think that this spread could easily be four or higher. If the bookmakers are giving you an obvious play, take it and head to the cashier.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 42)


I’m not quite sure Buffalo should be the favorite. Buffalo’s playoff outlook is rather bleak, to say the least, which doesn’t really conjure up a good reason to be playing with a whole lot of spirit.


Sure, historically speaking, the Bills would love to launch a salvo at one of their arch rivals. But Miami is in the thick of the playoff hunt, one game ahead of Baltimore, Tennessee and Denver. During any time of the year, we like to side with the team with the most incentive to play. What was considered a surprise upset earlier in the year in Miami doesn’t really look like it now as we see how the season panned out.


This is the 2016 season for Miami. A loss here would leave the Fins pinning their hopes on defeating the New England Patriots on the final weekend of the schedule. This game here affords them a little gap between the rest no matter what they do.


I had this game Miami -1.5 which truly scares me how off I am. But since we’re being given the better team with +3.5 (and I see a +4 out there as well), it might be worth a roll the dice with the Dolphins in Week 15.

San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns (+6.5, 44)


Now it comes down to a test of wills between a team that needs a win and a team that doesn’t want to be the team to lose to them.


You can say the Browns showed some life against Buffalo but they still lost by 20 points. In fact, Cleveland has lost by an average of 13.5 points per game all season. The Browns haven’t been as close as 6.5 for six consecutive games. Now you can play the “due factor” but that’s not going to get you too far. Particularly since they haven’t won a game in over a year.


The Chargers have been more than disappointing - again. But truly, take a look at the teams they have played the past 10 games. That’s a tough schedule. They know they don’t want to be the “it” team and lose to the Browns. We know they’re thinking that too. Being that this may be the second last game the Chargers will be known as San Diego’s team, we think the Bolts will be more than up for this one.


I had this +7.5, so I like what I see out there. We know we have the better team. We know the spread is more than attainable. Maybe this is the best chance the Browns have to win a game this season since they play at Pittsburgh in the last game of the year. But they’ve had chances all year and still haven’t won. We also don’t like the chances of RG3 having two good games in a row. He’s proven he can’t do that anymore.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5, 44)


It’s becoming obvious that Pittsburgh is the team most likely to challenge the Patriots in a final conference tilt. Their plus-65 scoring difference is second to the Patriots in the AFC. I made this line closer to -6.5 to -7 Even.


Pittsburgh has won five in a row heading into this clash and most assuredly will want to seek a little revenge for its loss in Baltimore earlier this season. By no means are the Steelers set in the playoffs. Incentive will be high and their momentum is heavily into the swing of things heading to the postseason.


Baltimore has lost four in a row on the road with margins of seven, 10 and eight the past three. With a few +4.5 lines still out there, you’ll want to pick that off right now. There won’t be any left by the weekend for sure. The Steelers are allowing only 14 points per game during their current streak and scoring over 25 in those same games.

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

NFL trends with Week 16 sneaking up on us:

— Cleveland is 1-12-1 vs spread in its last fourteen games.

— Steelers are 10-3 in last thirteen games as a home favorite.

— Atlanta is 8-17 in its last 25 games as a favorite.

— New England covered 10 of its last 13 games.

— Rams are 1-7-2 vs spread in last 10 games; 49ers are 2-11 in last 13.

— Chiefs covered twice in their last ten home games.

 

[CNOTES]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 16
December 21, 2016


Last week's underdogs feature brought home some nice profits as three of the five teams suggested (Indianapolis, Carolina, Tennessee) were able to bring home the cash, while Jacksonville and Tampa Bay definitely had their chances to get to the winner's circle as well.


Having said that those five teams would likely go at least 2-3 SU, grabbing a 3-2 SU mark for +$395 (on $100 flat wagers) proved to be a nice little profit and I'll be looking for more of the same in Week 16 from underdogs of +4 or more.

Sportsbook.ag Underdogs That Qualify


Minnesota Vikings (+7); ML (+250)
New York Jets (+16.5); ML (+1150)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5); ML (+185)
Cleveland Browns (+6.5); ML (+230)
Indianapolis Colts (+4); ML (+160)
Arizona Cardinals (+9); ML (+320)
Baltimore Ravens (+4.5); ML (+185)
Denver Broncos (+4); ML (+170)
Detroit Lions (+7); ML (+270)


It's another big list this week with a few teams that will surely get some support, but as always I'll begin with Cleveland. If the Browns are going to avoid being the second franchise in the modern era to avoid going 0-16 SU, this week is their best shot. Next week they will be in Pittsburgh to face a Steelers team that will still be fighting for a division title and/or playoff seeding and will make sure to get the job done.


This week, Cleveland plays their final home game of the year against a Chargers team that has to fly cross country and is back to being in complete shambles. If you've got the stones to ride with the Browns one more time, Week 16 will be your best opportunity.


Moving on, the Jets have already folded up shop for 2016 and with New England looking to clinch top spot in the AFC and getting the Jets best punch last time around, there is no need to even consider New York going into Foxboro and winning.


Arizona is in a similar boat being up in Seattle and while the Cardinals have had success in Seattle in the past, 2017 can't come soon enough for that franchise.


Teams on this list that are clinging to their slim playoff hopes include the Vikings, Colts, and Broncos and I would not be surprised to see all three put up strong efforts.


Nobody wants any part of backing Minnesota straight up this week after they were beat up and embarrassed on their own field by the Colts on Sunday, but often times it's those teams that you'd want to back in a spot like this.


The Vikings visit Lambeau Field to take on the rolling Packers and will be desperate to show the NFL world that they are much better then what they showed on film a week ago. As the biggest 'dog of the three in this group, +250 ML odds does have significant value if you've got no problem being in a very small minority.


Denver visits Kansas City in a game that could go either way, but with the Broncos offense being one of the worst in the league right now, it's tough to completely trust them in this spot. KC gave away a golden opportunity at a W last week and would love to end Denver's hopes of repeating.


Indy needs to win out and get plenty of help in the AFC South to see postseason action, but they can only worry about what they can control for now.


A matchup with Oakland is one that actually looks good on paper for the Colts, and with the Raiders achieving their main goal of clinching a playoff spot last week, Indy is a live dog in Week 16.


Speaking of that help the Colts need in the AFC South, getting a Jaguars win over Tennessee this week would be ideal. Jacksonville has lost nine in a row though and gave away the game in Houston on Sunday so they are tough to trust.


But the decision to fire head coach Gus Bradley is one that could spark the entire Jags team during the final two weeks, and while helping Indy isn't high on their priority list, spoiling Tennessee's playoff hopes any way they can would be a happy consequence for the Jags.


Baltimore is in Pittsburgh in a game that will decide the AFC North and will likely be the most popular ML underdog bet on this entire list. Those two teams go to war when they meet up and there is no question either side could win. But being the most popular underdog ML bet isn't necessarily a good thing, and it might be best for your bankroll to stay away from this game altogether in terms of ML options.


Detroit faces Dallas on MNF and that contest sets up similar to the Ravens/Steelers game. Both sides are more than capable of winning, both would love a victory to further their cause, but all in all, staying away from this contest is likely the best option.


Of the nine teams that make this week's list, there aren't as many I'm willing to back as a week ago. Close your eyes, plug your nose, and pray with Cleveland (+230) if you wish, but the three I'm seriously considering are Minnesota (+250), Indianapolis (+160), and cough, Jacksonville (+185) again.


Two of these three should be able to come out on the winning side and throw even more wrinkles into an already crowded and confusing playoff picture heading into the final week of the year.

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


NYG at PHI 08:25 PM

NYG +1.5 *****


U 42.5 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Eagles end skid, knock off Giants
December 22, 2016


PHILADELPHIA (AP) If the New York Giants continue to play this way, they won't have much of an impact even if they make the playoffs.


Malcolm Jenkins had the second two-interception game of his eight-year career, returning one for a touchdown, and the Philadelphia Eagles snapped a five-game slide by beating the Giants 24-19 on Thursday night. The loss prevented New York from advancing to the playoffs and handed Dallas the NFC East title - and home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs.


It also put the Giants (10-5) in a more difficult spot for ending their four-season playoff drought. They still own the top wild-card position heading into their finale at Washington.


''We're disappointed right now in the way we played tonight,'' said Eli Manning, who threw a career-high 63 times, completing 38 for 356 yards, but was picked off three times. ''We know we can bounce back next week and still get a win and get in the playoffs.''


New York can still get in this weekend if Detroit, Green Bay, Tampa Bay or Atlanta loses.


Carson Wentz threw a touchdown pass to Nelson Agholor, then returned from being examined for a concussion in the fourth quarter to guide a drive to Caleb Sturgis' 41-yard field goal. After New York's Robbie Gould made his fourth field goal, Philadelphia (6-9) held on downs with just under two minutes remaining.


The Giants got the ball back with 1:31 left and Terrence Brooks intercepted to clinch it with 5 seconds to go.


''I knew they were going to come at me because I just came in the game,'' said Brooks, a third-stringer. ''I made them pay. I was waiting on it.''


''We expect as an offense to scored touchdowns,'' said Manning, who was inconsistent with his throws all night. On Jenkins' second interception, the throw was woefully short. ''We got in scoring position a bunch and got too many field goals. We got off to a bad start and spotted them 14 points.''


Indeed, the Giants came up short because they fell behind early and didn't catch up.


Right tackle Lane Johnson's return from a 10-game suspension paid dividends immediately. Twice Johnson wiped out the left side of New York's defensive line, with his block helping spring Darren Sproles for a 25-yard touchdown run for a 7-0 lead.


It was 14-0 1:28 later when Manning's short pass to Will Tye was way too soft. Jenkins cut in front of the tight end, then romped down the right side for a 34-yard score.


The current Giants' offense isn't built for big comebacks, and now New York needed one. Manning hit Odell Beckham Jr. on a 30-yard play that highlighted an 80-yard drive to Gould's 35-yard field goal. But Manning also made two inaccurate throws in that series.


It was that way all night, though Beckham made 11 catches for 150 yards and tied his career high of 96 receptions in a season.


''We've been in a slide and things haven't been going our way,'' Jenkins said, ''so we wanted to show up and compete. A lot of guys stepped up. We came up with big stops. It was a huge win for us. Guys showed up today.''


Gould's 35-yard field goal brought the Giants closer. Then Wentz found the seldom-used Agholor wide open for a 40-yard touchdown and a 21-6 edge.


Manning, who was not sacked all night, finally found his touch on the last drive of the half, with a gorgeous 29-yard connection to Victor Cruz keying an 84-yard mark. Shepard slipped past Jenkins' bump at the line to score from 13 yards for a 21-13 deficit.


It was all field goals in the second half - and some more imprecise throws by Manning.


AGHOLOR EMERGES


Agholor, the Eagles' first-round draft pick last year who had only 57 catches in 26 career games, scored his first touchdown this season and third of his career with the 40-yarder in the second period. He had not reached the end zone since the season opener.

CITY OF BROTHERLY LOVE?


Not quite for the Giants, who have lost three straight at the Linc and been outscored 78-26.

CRASH COLLINS

Giants safety Landon Collins, the top tackler at his position in the league and on Tuesday selected to the Pro Bowl in his second season, had nine tackles, giving him 117 for the season.


INJURIES


Giants: DT Damon Harrison left before a fourth-and-inches play at the goal line with a right knee injury. The Giants stopped Philadelphia's run anyway, and Harrison returned later.


Eagles: Aside from Wentz, guard Allen Barbre hurt his right hamstring in the first half and didn't return. Safety Jaylen Watkins left in the third quarter with a concussion. RB Ryan Mathews left in the fourth quarter with a stinger.

NEXT UP


Giants: Finish season at Washington.


Eagles: Host Dallas to finish season.

 

[CNOTES]

Pick Six - Week 16
December 22, 2016


Week 15 Record: 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS
Overall Record: 42-44 SU, 39-47-2 ATS


Dolphins at Bills (-3 ½, 41 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


Miami
Record: 9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS, 10-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1


The Dolphins control their own destiny for a playoff spot in the AFC with two games remaining. Miami has won eight of its past nine games, coming off a 34-13 blowout of the Jets last Saturday as backup quarterback Matt Moore tossed four touchdown passes. Moore will start once again for the injured Ryan Tannehill as the Dolphins go for the season sweep of the Bills after beating Buffalo, 28-25 as 2 ½-point home underdogs in Week 7.


Buffalo
Record: 7-7 SU, 6-8 ATS, 11-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF


The Bills will likely fall short of the playoffs in spite of blowing out the Browns last week, 33-13 as 10 ½-point favorites to cash for only the second time in the last eight games. Buffalo has owned Miami at home through the years by winning eight of the past 10 matchups at New Era Stadium, including four straight victories. In each of those wins, the Bills have limited the Dolphins to 17 points or fewer, while Buffalo has covered in each of those games in the home favorite role.


Best Bet: Buffalo -3 ½


Falcons (-2 ½) at Panthers – 1:00 PM EST


Atlanta
Record: 9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS, 12-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1


Last season, the Falcons handed the Panthers their first loss of the season in Week 16 as a home underdog. The two NFC South rivals meet again in Week 16 but the roles are reversed as Atlanta is listed as a short favorite looking to creep closer towards a division crown. The Falcons are coming off a pair of blowouts over two of the worst teams in the league, beating the Rams and 49ers by a combined score of 83-27. Atlanta has thrived as a favorite from a scoring perspective by putting up at least 28 points in its last seven opportunities in the chalk role.


Carolina
Record: 6-8 SU, 5-8-1 ATS, 7-7 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF


The Panthers won’t be heading back to the Super Bowl this season, much less the playoffs. Carolina is looking to finish on a strong note following wins over San Diego and Washington the last two weeks, while trying to avenge a 48-33 setback in Atlanta earlier this season. The Panthers allowed 300 yards receiving to Atlanta’s Julio Jones in that loss, but the Falcons’ standout has missed the last two games with a toe injury as he hopes to return on Saturday. Carolina has won three of the past four home matchups with Atlanta, including a 38-0 shutout last season.


Best Bet: Carolina +2 ½


Vikings at Packers (-6 ½, 43) – 1:00 PM EST


Minnesota
Record: 7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS, 9-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF


It’s seems like a lifetime ago when the Vikings were sitting comfortably atop the NFC North at 5-0. Minnesota has slumped to a 2-7 record the last nine games and are on the outside of the NFC playoff picture heading to Lambeau Field. The Vikings suffered their worst loss of the season last Sunday in a 34-6 home setback to the Colts. Minnesota has been limited to 16 points or less in six of its seven losses, but managed to score 17 points and beat Green Bay in Week 2 by a 17-14 count as a 1 ½-point home ‘dog.


Green Bay
Record: 8-6 ATS, 7-6-1 ATS, 8-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1


The Packers are turning it on at the right time by winning four straight games to pull within one of the Lions atop the NFC North as the two teams meet next week in Detroit. Green Bay held off Chicago last Sunday at Soldier Field, 30-27, but failed to cash as 4 ½-point favorites in spite of four takeaways. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t thrown an interception in his last five games for Green Bay, while the Packers are riding a five-game December winning streak at Lambeau Field since 2014.


Best Bet: Minnesota +6 ½


Colts at Raiders (-4, 53) – 4:05 PM EST


Indianapolis
Record: 7-7 SU, 7-6-1 ATS, 8-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1


The playoff chances for the Colts are slim at this point, but Indianapolis looks to keep up its road dominance of late after routing Minnesota last Sunday, 34-6 as five-point underdogs. The Colts have won four straight on the highway with all four victories coming in the underdog role, including earlier triumphs at Green Bay and Tennessee. However, Indianapolis has won consecutive games only once this season, owning a 1-5 SU/ATS record off a victory.


Oakland
Record: 11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS, 10-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 14/1


The Raiders pulled back into first place of the AFC West after last Sunday’s three-point road win at San Diego and Kansas City’s last-second loss to Tennessee. Oakland has clinched a playoff spot and can wrap up the division title with a victory over Indianapolis and a loss by Kansas City on Sunday night against Denver. The Raiders are rolling at home since a 1-2 start by winning their last four games at the Black Hole, while eclipsing the OVER in each of those victories.


Best Bet: Oakland -4


Buccaneers at Saints (-3, 52 ½) – 4:25 PM EST


Tampa Bay
Record: 8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS, 7-6-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 70/1


The Buccaneers fell short at Dallas last Sunday night in a 26-20 setback, but Tampa Bay managed to cash as seven-point underdogs to improve to 6-1 ATS away from Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay seeks the season sweep of New Orleans on Sunday after holding off the Saints less than two weeks ago, 16-11 as two-point favorites. The Bucs scored only one touchdown in that win, but intercepted Drew Brees three times as Tampa Bay has covered six consecutive games.


New Orleans
Record: 6-8 SU, 9-5 ATS, 7-7 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF


The Saints rebounded from a pair of poor offensive efforts in losses to Detroit and Tampa Bay by dropping 48 points on Arizona last Sunday. New Orleans held off Arizona, 48-41 as Brees torched the Cardinals’ defense for four touchdown passes after failing to throw a touchdown in the previous two weeks. The Saints haven’t been great in the favorite role this season with a 2-4 ATS record (compared to the 7-1 ATS mark as an underdog), but this is the shortest number New Orleans has laid to Tampa Bay at home since 2012 when the Saints blanked the Bucs, 41-0 as 3 ½-point chalk.


Best Bet: New Orleans -3


Cardinals at Seahawks (-8, 43) – 4:25 PM EST


Arizona
Record: 5-8-1 SU, 4-10 ATS, 8-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF


Just like the team they lost to in last season’s NFC championship, the Cardinals will not be returning to the postseason. Arizona started the season at 3-3, but have won only twice in the last eight tries, while allowing a season-high 48 points to New Orleans last Sunday. The Cardinals played to a 6-6 tie with the Seahawks in Week 7 as Arizona couldn’t pull out the win in spite of racking up 443 yards of offense that night. Arizona hasn’t been listed as an underdog by more than four points this season, while the Cardinals have won in two of their past three visits to Seattle.


Seattle
Record: 9-4-1 SU, 8-6 ATS, 7-7 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 6/1


The Seahawks have wrapped up the NFC West title and can grab a first-round bye with wins in their final two games against the Cardinals and 49ers. Seattle bounced back from an embarrassing 38-10 loss at Green Bay in Week 14 to rout the hapless Rams last Thursday, 24-3 as 15-point favorites. The Seahawks look for an 8-0 home mark for the first time since 2012 as Seattle has put together a 5-2 ATS record at CenturyLink Field this season.

Best Bet: Arizona +8

 

[CNOTES]

Best Bets - Week 16
December 22, 2016


The final two weeks of the NFL season are upon us and teams vying for one of the playoff spots still up for grabs have no room for error.


Week 16 brings plenty of huge division matchups with the stakes ramped up for many, but there are two division games where I believe the most value lies on the entire board.


Best Bet #1: Buffalo (-4)


At 7-7 SU, Buffalo's chances of getting to the postseason are slim at best as they'll need to win out and get plenty of help. But the Bills can only worry about what they can control, and winning this week would actually help on both fronts as Miami is one of the teams Buffalo needs to stumble down the stretch.


Ever since reports came out that HC Rex Ryan would likely be gone at season's end, the Bills have turned up their play, and blowing out Cleveland last week could be just the spark the Bills needed to make one final playoff push.


There is more good news for those looking to tag along with this bet as Buffalo does have the revenge angle in their favor after falling 28-25 to Miami earlier in the year. Throw in either a gimpy Ryan Tannehill or backup Matt Moore at QB, and this Bills defense should so much more fight against those units than we saw from the Jets a week ago.


Furthermore, while it may appear that more pressure sits on the Buffalo side as they need to win to stay alive, it's the Dolphins who have got more pressure on their performance this week in my opinion, knowing that a collapse these final two weeks would be disastrous, spoiling an otherwise strong season, and they've got to deal with the New England Patriots in Week 17.


The home team in this AFC East rivalry is 7-2 ATS the last nine times they've met, and with Buffalo being 4-1 ATS after scoring 30+ points and 5-2 ATS after a win by 14+ points, laying the chalk with the home side here is one of the better plays on the board this week.


Throw in Miami's 2-7 ATS run after scoring 30+ and their 2-12 ATS mark in December games the past few years and the Dolphins will have to come up with a home win next week vs. New England to punch their ticket into the playoffs.


Best Bet #2: Minnesota (+7)


The Minnesota Vikings are a team nobody wants a part of from a betting perspective right now as they've been really quite bad since starting the year 5-0 SU.


Last week's blowout home loss vs. Indy was the icing on the cake for most bettors to avoid this team going forward, especially when they have to go on the road to face one of the hottest teams in the league this week.


There is no denying that the Packers have been on a roll of late and looking to get into a showdown with Detroit for the division crown next week, but last week's narrow win in Chicago still showed the deficiencies this Packers team has – especially stopping the run - and this is too many points to give a desperate Vikings team looking to stay alive themselves.


Look, I get it, Minnesota looked awful a week ago and it's tough to back them in front of the train that is the Packers right now, but did you know that a SU win by Minnesota would all but eliminate Green Bay from the playoff picture? That's not exactly a scenario too many people are commenting on this week given the current form of both sides, but remember no NFL team is ever as good, or as bad as they look after one specific week.


Minnesota already shut down this Packers offense once this year (17-14 win) and although that came back when it was the Vikings who were on a roll, it's not like it couldn't happen again this week.


RB Adrian Peterson – should he play – will be looking to redeem himself after an awful return to the lineup and historically he's had some of his best games in Green Bay in the past. The Packers showed last week that they still have plenty of issues stopping the run and if Minnesota's O-line can hold up strong, AP will be able to find the holes and get some big gains.


The Vikings offense needs to stay on the field with long drives to have a chance this week – to not only score points but keep Aaron Rodgers on the sidelines – and giving them a touchdown here with the defense we all know they have is ludicrous.


Minnesota absolutely must win this game outright to keep their playoff hopes alive and while they may not get the outright win, this game will come down to the wire like last week's Packers game vs. Chicago did.


With Minnesota on a 7-2 ATS run vs winning foes, 35-16 ATS after a loss by 14+ points, and a 4-1 ATS run after a double-digit home loss, grab the points in this one.

 

[CNOTES]

Help in Houston
December 22, 2016


Tom Savage To Rescue For Texans?


The two biggest news items in the NFL in Week 15 both came out of one of the worst matchups on paper going in: Jacksonville at Houston. That featured two of the lowest-rated and most intercepted quarterbacks in the league this season in the Jaguars' Blake Bortles and Texans' Brock Osweiler. They played to expectations in the game and two jobs were lost because of their performances: those of Jaguars coach Gus Bradley and Osweiler himself.


While you can look for a prop on the next full-time head coach of the downtrodden Jaguars later this week on BetOnline's NFL odds, this will look at Houston's chances going forward behind new starting quarterback Tom Savage.


Houston signed Osweiler this offseason to a four-year, $72 million free-agent deal to leave Denver even though the Texans brass never met with Osweiler personally and he had been uneven in his starts for an injured Peyton Manning in 2015. That contract included $37 million in guaranteed money over the first two years, something the Texans have to regret now.


The Texans were trailing the Jaguars, who entered on an eight-game losing streak, 13-0 in the second quarter when Coach Bill O'Brien pulled Osweiler after he was 6-for-11 for 48 yards and two interceptions in his five drives. Savage, a fourth-round pick in 2014, had attempted just 19 career regular-season passes in his career and not since his rookie year. He spent last season on injured reserve after spraining his shoulder during a preseason game.


But Savage looked very comfortable against the Jaguars in completing 23 of 36 for 260 yards in a 21-20 come-from-behind victory. Not exactly Hall of Fame numbers, but Savage didn't turn the ball over -- Osweiler had 16 picks and three fumbles this year -- and threw for more yards in less than three quarters than Osweiler did in all but two of his games.


On passes thrown 15 yards or more downfield on Sunday, Osweiler was 0-for-2 with two interceptions. Savage was 4-for-8 for 89 yards. Savage also got star receiver DeAndre Hopkins involved. He finished with a season-high 17 targets along with eight catches (second most of season) and 87 yards (also second most).


In a no-brainer move, O'Brien on Monday announced that Savage was his starting quarterback going forward. The coach would have lost the locker room had he gone back to Osweiler. But it's fairly unprecedented for a division leader to make a change this late in the season under center that didn't come due to injury. O'Brien said he chose to name a starter early in the week because he wanted to give Savage the full week to prepare.


O'Brien might be betting his job on this move as the Texans could fire him should they miss the playoffs. He's supposed to be a quarterback guru, but the play at that position has been wildly inconsistent since he was hired from Penn State before the 2014 season.


Houston and Tennessee are tied for the AFC South lead at 8-6. The Texans are opening 2-point favorites at BetOnline for their home game vs. Cincinnati on Christmas Eve night. The Titans are -4.5 in Jacksonville, which will be led by interim coach Doug Marrone the rest of the season.


Houston visits Nashville in Week 17 in a potential winner-take-all game for the division. The Texans are -110 favorites to repeat as South champions at BetOnline with the Titans are +110 and the Indianapolis Colts (7-7) at +1500. Indy needs to win out with Houston losing both its games and Tennessee losing to Jacksonville for the Colts to win the division.


Keep in mind that Houston's NRG Stadium hosts Super Bowl LI and no team has played in a Super Bowl its stadium hosted. The Texans are +3300 to win their first AFC championship.

 

[CNOTES]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 16
December 21, 2016


Last week's underdogs feature brought home some nice profits as three of the five teams suggested (Indianapolis, Carolina, Tennessee) were able to bring home the cash, while Jacksonville and Tampa Bay definitely had their chances to get to the winner's circle as well.


Having said that those five teams would likely go at least 2-3 SU, grabbing a 3-2 SU mark for +$395 (on $100 flat wagers) proved to be a nice little profit and I'll be looking for more of the same in Week 16 from underdogs of +4 or more.


Sportsbook.ag Underdogs That Qualify


Minnesota Vikings (+7); ML (+250)
New York Jets (+16.5); ML (+1150)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5); ML (+185)
Cleveland Browns (+6.5); ML (+230)
Indianapolis Colts (+4); ML (+160)
Arizona Cardinals (+9); ML (+320)
Baltimore Ravens (+4.5); ML (+185)
Denver Broncos (+4); ML (+170)
Detroit Lions (+7); ML (+270)

It's another big list this week with a few teams that will surely get some support, but as always I'll begin with Cleveland. If the Browns are going to avoid being the second franchise in the modern era to avoid going 0-16 SU, this week is their best shot. Next week they will be in Pittsburgh to face a Steelers team that will still be fighting for a division title and/or playoff seeding and will make sure to get the job done.


This week, Cleveland plays their final home game of the year against a Chargers team that has to fly cross country and is back to being in complete shambles. If you've got the stones to ride with the Browns one more time, Week 16 will be your best opportunity.


Moving on, the Jets have already folded up shop for 2016 and with New England looking to clinch top spot in the AFC and getting the Jets best punch last time around, there is no need to even consider New York going into Foxboro and winning.


Arizona is in a similar boat being up in Seattle and while the Cardinals have had success in Seattle in the past, 2017 can't come soon enough for that franchise.


Teams on this list that are clinging to their slim playoff hopes include the Vikings, Colts, and Broncos and I would not be surprised to see all three put up strong efforts.


Nobody wants any part of backing Minnesota straight up this week after they were beat up and embarrassed on their own field by the Colts on Sunday, but often times it's those teams that you'd want to back in a spot like this.


The Vikings visit Lambeau Field to take on the rolling Packers and will be desperate to show the NFL world that they are much better then what they showed on film a week ago. As the biggest 'dog of the three in this group, +250 ML odds does have significant value if you've got no problem being in a very small minority.


Denver visits Kansas City in a game that could go either way, but with the Broncos offense being one of the worst in the league right now, it's tough to completely trust them in this spot. KC gave away a golden opportunity at a W last week and would love to end Denver's hopes of repeating.


Indy needs to win out and get plenty of help in the AFC South to see postseason action, but they can only worry about what they can control for now.


A matchup with Oakland is one that actually looks good on paper for the Colts, and with the Raiders achieving their main goal of clinching a playoff spot last week, Indy is a live dog in Week 16.


Speaking of that help the Colts need in the AFC South, getting a Jaguars win over Tennessee this week would be ideal. Jacksonville has lost nine in a row though and gave away the game in Houston on Sunday so they are tough to trust.


But the decision to fire head coach Gus Bradley is one that could spark the entire Jags team during the final two weeks, and while helping Indy isn't high on their priority list, spoiling Tennessee's playoff hopes any way they can would be a happy consequence for the Jags.


Baltimore is in Pittsburgh in a game that will decide the AFC North and will likely be the most popular ML underdog bet on this entire list. Those two teams go to war when they meet up and there is no question either side could win. But being the most popular underdog ML bet isn't necessarily a good thing, and it might be best for your bankroll to stay away from this game altogether in terms of ML options.


Detroit faces Dallas on MNF and that contest sets up similar to the Ravens/Steelers game. Both sides are more than capable of winning, both would love a victory to further their cause, but all in all, staying away from this contest is likely the best option.


Of the nine teams that make this week's list, there aren't as many I'm willing to back as a week ago. Close your eyes, plug your nose, and pray with Cleveland (+230) if you wish, but the three I'm seriously considering are Minnesota (+250), Indianapolis (+160), and cough, Jacksonville (+185) again.


Two of these three should be able to come out on the winning side and throw even more wrinkles into an already crowded and confusing playoff picture heading into the final week of the year.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Christmas Tips
December 22, 2016


The NFL has given us a couple of Week 16 Christmas games to be very merry about with four teams all fighting for a playoff berth and the results of Sunday's game will make the postseason picture much clearer.


The Steelers can clinch a division crown with a win against the Ravens in the early game and the Chiefs can clinch a spot in the nightcap against the Broncos.


Let's take at how these two rivalries stack up:


Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-5.5, 44)
NFL Network, 4:30 p.m. ET


The Ravens have won four straight over the Steelers, but if Pittsburgh can halt the streak and win Sunday at Heinz Field they'll clinch the AFC North. However, Baltimore controls its own destiny. If they win Sunday and next week at Cincinnati, they'll clinch the division and be the AFC's No. 3 seed in the playoffs.


Prior to Saturday's games, the Ravens were outside looking in as the No. 7 seed in the AFC. They've built up their respect with Las Vegas oddsmakers over the past seven weeks by going 5-2. However, they've lost the past four on the road and are just 1-5 ATS on the road this season which is part of the reason Pittsburgh is as high as a six-point favorite at CG Technology sports books for this one.


The other reason Pittsburgh is favored so high is because they're peaking at the right time and playing to expectations that their high rating had when the season started. After going through a stretch of losing and failing to cover four straight, Pittsburgh has won and covered its last five with the running game, passing game and defense all being dominant at times.


Four of those five games during the win streak have stayed 'under' the total. Pittsburgh's 10-4 'under' mark is tied with two other teams as second-best in the NFL. Sunday's total is set with a a high at 45 and a low at 44.


RECENT MEETINGS


Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings and the Under is 3-0-1 as well.


TRENDS


-- Baltimore is 7-0 ATS in last seven against NFC North teams.
-- Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in last five road games.
-- Baltimore 'under' is 5-1-1 in last seven Week 16 games.


-- Pittsburgh is 4-1-1 ATS in last six against AFC North teams.
-- Pittsburgh in 5-0 ATS in last five games.
-- Pittsburgh 'under' is 19-6-1 in last 26 against NFC North teams.


Denver at Kansas City (-3.5, 37.5)
NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET


All the Chiefs need to clinch a playoff berth is for Baltimore to either tie or lose Sunday's earlier game at Pittsburgh or take care of business on their own with a win or tie at home against the Broncos in the evening.


For the Broncos, they have all kinds of scenarios that could give them a playoff berth by either winning their final two games and finishing 10-6 or splitting them and finishing 9-7. Any way they slice it, they're still outside looking in to the playoff equation and need lots of help.


"The only scenario I know is that if we don't win, we get no chance," said Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak.


Those chances look bleak based on what we've all seen out of the Broncos lately. After starting 4-0 they've lost six of their last 10, including three of their last four. However, they have won the last four visits to Arrowhead Stadium.


The Denver defense has been steady, ranked No. 2 overall (310 YPG allowed) while also tied for No. 1 with 40 sacks. But the run defense has been a source for repeated success by opponents, ranked No. 29 allowing 127 yards per game. The sluggish offense has shown it can't run the ball (91 YPG) and can't score getting just 13 points combined in its it last two games. The passing game will also suffer this week as the top two tight-ends are likely to be 'out' with concussions.


The top reason for Denver optimism coming into this game is "Mother Nature" which could turn this into a really ugly game that bodes well for Denver's defense to make some big plays. Thunderstorms are expected with winds as high as 24 miles per hour, which means passing will be very difficult and turnovers with slippery balls should be high for both teams.


LINE MOVEMENT


The Chiefs may have already clinched a playoff spot with a Baltimore loss which could lend belief that Kansas City might not play as hard, but they're still in the hunt for the AFC West crown and if Oakland loses to the Colts Saturday a Kansas City win would put them in first-place by virtue of sweeping the Raiders this season. So don't expect major line adjustment based on other teams results heading into the game. However, some serious line movement has already happened. The -- Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Kansas City -6 on Sunday night and by Monday afternoon it had been bet down to -4 and then -3.5 on Tuesday. The total has dropped from 38 down to 37.5 as of Thursday afternoon.


RECENT MEETINGS


The Broncos have covered six of its past seven at Kansas City and the road team has covered the last six meetings. Kansas City has won the past two meetings, both at Denver.


TRENDS

-- Denver is 1-4 ATS in last five against winning teams.
-- Denver is 1-5 ATS in last six against AFC West teams.
-- Denver 'under' is 5-1 in last six road games.


-- Kansas City is 2-8 ATS in last 10 home games.
-- Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in last five following an ATS loss.
-- Kansas City 'under' is 38-15 in last 53 home games.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL THURS- MONDAY RECORD AND BEST BETS:


12/01/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
12/04/2016 15-10-1 60.00% +2000
12/05/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/08/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
12/11/2016 17-10-0 62.96% +3000
12/12/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/15/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
12/18/2016 14-12-0 53.85% +400
12/22/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/19/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 121-139-8 46.54% -15950


O/U Picks 125-136-6 47.89% -12300


Triple Plays:..... 70 - 73 - 4


BIG PLAYS FOR OCT/NOV 5 - 8 - 1
BIG PLAYS FOR DEC. 9 - 9


12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 1 KANSAS CITY + 4' 29/ N. ORLEANS 28
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL SNOW FAVORITE OF THE DAY G. BAY - 6 21 / HOUSTON 13
12/04- 1 - 0 NFL TOTAL OF THE DAY. UN 44 SAN FRAN/ CHICAGO 26 - 6
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 2 BUFFALO + 3 24 / OAKLAND 38
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 3 TAMPA + 3' 28 / SAN DIEGO 21
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 4 WASHINGTON + 2' 23 / ARIZONA 31
12/08- 1 - 0 NFL THUR. NIGHT GOY K.C. - 3 / OAKLAND 21 - 13
12/08 - 1 - 0 NFL THUR. NIGHT TOTAL OF THE NIGHT KC / OAKLAND UN 46 21 - 13

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 16
December 23, 2016


Wise guys have been getting lumps of coal as a return on their investment betting the Browns all season, including failing to cash the last eight weeks, but they're all-in on Christmas Eve riding Cleveland as a home underdog against San Diego in an attempt to get some of the hundreds of thousands of dollars lost on the Browns over the first 15 weeks.


"We've taken lots of Browns action taking us from +6.5, +6, +5.5 (skipped over +5) and +4.5," said South Point sports book director Chris Andrews who has the game -4 as of Friday afternoon. "We have nothing on the Chargers."


Beating the wise-guys who bet the Browns (0-14 straight up, 2-12 against the spread) has been one of the positives for sports books in an otherwise ugly season. But the sharps might be correct with their timing this week as San Diego comes in having lost and failed to cover its last three and it's expected to be without injured running back Melvin Gordon.


The sharps are also heavy on Atlanta at Carolina this week and so are is the average Joe with their parlays. William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada have taken 96 percent of its cash on the game and 88 percent of the tickets written siding with the Falcons who can clinch the NFC South with a win and a loss or tie by the Buccaneers. It's the most one-sided bet game of the week.


"We've taken a lot on Atlanta," said Andrews. "Limit wagers and -2, a couple at -2,5 and also at -3."


The South Point is still holding tight at -3 despite a limit wager there because they don't want to straddle the most key number in the NFL. It'll take at least two more limit bets for them to move to -3.5. A few other books have the Falcons -3 (-120).


Andrews said he's also taken sharp plays on New Orleans (-3.5) at home against Tampa Bay and Chicago (+3) at home against Washington. The Buccaneers have covered the number in their last six games which began with a 36-10 home win against the Bears. Coincidentally, Chicago has covered its last five games since that loss to the Bucs.


Houston (-1) can clinch an AFC Title with a home win against Cincinnation Saturday night if Tennessee (-5) lose at Jacksonville earlier in the day. The Texans will make their playoff push behind new starting quarterback Tom Savage who might be considered an upgrade over Brock Osweiler.


"I've got Savage rated a little higher than Osweiler so I upgraded the number 1 point," said Andrews. "He was a hot player coming out of Pitt (fourth-round of 2014 NFL draft). A lot of people liked him and he's finally getting his chance to show what he can do."


The Ravens have won four straight against the Steelers but Pittsburgh rides a five-game winning streak (5-0 ATS) in this matchup and is listed as a 5.5-point home favorite on Christmas Day.


"We've got play on both sides and I'm kind of surprised because I thought I'd be at -6 already," Andrews said.


The Christmas nightcap is another divisional rivalry with Denver visiting Kansas City and the number has been falling rapidly since posted on Monday.


"We've got a ton of money on Denver already," said Andrews, who has dropped the Chiefs from -5 to -3. "The Chiefs really blew one last week, so I look for them to come up with a good performance and the Broncos haven't shown anything offensively the last two weeks."


The total is sitting at 37.5 at most books with rain expected and winds up to 23 mph. Beyond the weather causing such a low total, the Chiefs have stayed 'under' the total in 10 of 14 games and the Broncos have scored 13 combined points in their last two games. Denver has won the last five meetings at Arrowhead.


Monday night has Detroit visiting Dallas looking to clinch the NFC North with a win, which would be Matt Stafford's first division title in his seven-year career. Dallas has already clinched home field and the question is whether or not the starters will play the entire game.


"We got lots of play on Dallas -7 early in the week. Even with the Cowboys clinching with the Giants loss, I don't buy into the fact that this team needs the game or that team doesn't; it's overrated. I waited to take a strong bet at +7 until dropping to 6.5."


The last instance of the Cowboys clinching their playoff spot where a regular season game meant nothing was in 2014 and the starters played for most of the 44-17 win over the Redskins -- Dallas played the Lions the next week in the Wild Card round.


No word on what head coach Jason Garrett will do with his starters on Monday, but even if he does choose rest over rust, he's got a hungry Tony Romo as a nice back-up itching to play if he decides to rest Dak Prescott.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 16
December 23, 2016


For the second consecutive week, the ‘under’ posted a 9-7 record despite a lot of teams moving the chains. Unfortunately for ‘over’ bettors, there were 69 made field goals in Week 15 compared to 71 touchdowns and those four-point swings can often hurt or help outcomes. Through 15 weeks of the season, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge 112-111-1.


Divisional Trends to Watch


Eleven of the 16 games scheduled this week are divisional matchups and all but one of them have playoff implications.


Miami at Buffalo: The Bills (11-3) and Dolphins (10-4) have been sneaky-good ‘over’ bets this season yet oddsmakers continue to post low totals on this pair (41 ½). Is there a reason for this production? The answer is yes and the proof lies with big plays (great stat) from both clubs. The Bills have seen the 'over' go 7-0 at Ralph Wilson Stadium this season behind an offense averaging 30.7 points per game at home and a suspect defense (24.7 PPG). Miami has scored 24 and 34 in its two divisional matchups on the road and the 'over' cashed in each game. The ‘over’ is on a 3-0 run in this series but the last two games played at Buffalo in December went ‘under’ the number. Keep an eye on the latest weather reports for this matchup with snow possibly looming.


Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The Buccaneers stifled the Saints 16-11 in Week 14 at home and the ‘under’ (51 ½) was never in doubt. It was the fourth straight ‘under’ in this series yet the rematch is staring at a higher total (52 ½). The Saints are coming off a 48-point performance and are averaging 31 PPG at home plus the scoring defense (30.3 PPG) at the Superdome is ranked last in the league.


Atlanta at Carolina: The Falcons diced up the Panthers 48-33 at home on Oct. 2 and the ‘over’ (48 ½) cashed easily. Even though that game went to the high side, the ‘under’ connected in the six previous encounters. The Atlanta-Over combination has cashed eight times this season, three times in their last four games. I’d be weary to press that wager here knowing Carolina’s defense (20.3 PPG) has played better at home and it’s still technically alive for the playoffs.


Minnesota at Green Bay: I thought this total (43) would be a tad lower but the majority of bettors always lean to Packers and ‘over’ at Lambeau Field. Unfortunately for the masses, that combo has hit once this season for Green Bay at home. Minnesota has leaned to the ‘under’ (9-5) all season and a couple of those ‘over’ tickets received help from its defense. The ‘under’ is on a 4-0 run in this series.


N.Y. Jets at New England: The ‘over’ has gone 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the pair but I wouldn’t put much stock into those results. The Jets are a mess offensively with whomever at QB and New England is already in playoff-mode. I expect an ugly game with the Patriots trying to get off the field with a win and no injuries.


Tennessee at Jacksonville: The Titans blasted the Jaguars 36-22 in a Thursday night matchup at home in Week 8 and they also earned a 42-39 shootout victory in Nashville over Jacksonville last season. We mention those results because Tennessee has only managed to score 13 and 13 points in its last two trips to Jacksonville. The Jaguars will have a new coach (Doug Marrone) on the sidelines and it’s always tough to handicap teams who may or may not be playing for pride.


San Francisco at Los Angeles: Low total (39) for this meaningless matchup and it’s warranted with neither team showing consistent production on offense. The ‘under’ has gone 4-0 in the last four games in this series, which includes the Week 1 result when the 49ers blanked the Rams 28-0 at home.


Arizona at Seattle: The ‘under’ is on a 4-2 run in this series and we’re looking at a low total (43) this week but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some fireworks. The Cardinals are eliminated from the playoffs but they’re on a 5-0 ‘over’ run and all six of their road games have gone to the high side. Seattle has been much more potent offensively at home (28 PPG) and it needs to win this game to push closer to No. 2 seed in the NFC.


Baltimore at Pittsburgh (Sunday): Tough total (44) to handicap because Pittsburgh’s been a clear-cut ‘under’ team (10-4) this season but it still has the ability to explode offensively. Baltimore has also leaned to the ‘under’ (8-6) yet the offense has found its rhythm the last three weeks (29.3 PPG) and that’s resulted in three ‘over’ tickets. The ‘under’ is on a 3-0 run in this series, which includes their first meeting this season when Baltimore dropped Pittsburgh 21-14 at home.


Denver at Kansas City: (See Below)


Coast to Coast


It wasn’t easy last week but head coach Dan Quinn decided to kick a late field goal in Atlanta’s 41-13 home win San Francisco and the ‘over’ (51 ½) connected for bettors last Sunday. Including that result, the ‘over’ has gone 15-4 (79%) in games where a team from the West Coast has played in the Eastern Time Zone. Dating back to last season, the overall numbers are 26-9 (74%) to the ‘over’ in these games.


The last regular season game featuring a West Coast team playing in the Eastern Time Zone takes place on Saturday when San Diego visits Cleveland. The total on this game opened at 44 and you can make an argument for either decision.


The Browns (29.1 PPG) and Chargers (26.1 PPG) are both ranked in the bottom four in scoring defense but neither team has shown much pop offensively lately. Cleveland is averaging 10.3 PPG in its last six while San Diego’s once potent attack has been held to 21 or less in four straight games. The Chargers have already made two trips to the East Coast this season and the total has gone 1-1 in those games with combined scores of 63 and 44 points posted. Weather expected to play a factor in this matchup as well.


Under the Lights


The ‘under’ run in the primetime matchups continued in Week 15 with a 3-1 mark, the lone ‘over’ occurring in Miami’s 34-13 win over the Jets last Saturday. The ‘under’ was on a 5-2 run the last two weeks but Philadelphia and New York did go ‘over’ this past Thursday, which snapped a six-game run to the low side on the midweek game. Through 15 weeks and one game, the ‘under’ holds a 26-21-1 mark in night games this season.


We have three games slated under the lights for Week 16, with the action starting on Saturday.


Cincinnati at Houston (Saturday): Despite playing in different divisions, these teams have met the last five seasons and the ‘under’ has gone 3-2. The average combined scored during this span was 32.6. Houston is going with Tom Savage at quarterback and he looked decent last week (23-of-36, 260 yards) against a decent Jaguars defense. The Bengals offense has been held to 20 points or less in five of seven road games and hard to see them improving that number against a stout Texans defense that has been much better at home (17.6 PPG).


Denver at Kansas City (Sunday): These teams combined for 57 points in Week 12 as Kansas City nipped Denver 30-27 in overtime on the road. This was a 16-10 game going into the fourth quarter and looked like an easy ‘under’ winner. For the rematch, the books have sent out a super-low number of 37 ½ points and the number is justified. The Chiefs have seen the ‘under’ go 10-4 this season, 6-1 at Arrowhead Stadium while Denver enters this contest on a 3-0 ‘under’ run behind an offense (11 PPG) that has imploded the last three weeks. This is another contest that will likely be affected with inclement weather.


Detroit at Dallas (Monday): Knowing the Cowboys clinched the No. 1 overall seed on Thursday due to the Giants losing makes this game very tough to handicap. Will Dallas pull up in this spot and go through the motions? Tough to say but we do know the Lions enter this game on an 8-0 run to the ‘under’ and they have a very good defense. Dallas has also been a solid ‘under’ bet (9-5) this season and its last three games have all leaned to the low side. This total opened 42 ½ and sits at 44 ½ as of Friday but that could quickly change based on what Cowboys team we’ll see this Monday.


Fearless Predictions

I expected the elements to play a factor in the Green Bay-Chicago game and that didn’t work out so well. That matchup alone put us in the red ($230) and pushed the deficit back to the five-unit ($490) mark on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy Holidays to you and yours!


Best Over: Tampa Bay-New Orleans 52 ½


Best Under: Tennessee-Jacksonville 44


Best Team Total: Over 25 Washington


Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Tampa Bay-New Orleans 43 ½
Over Arizona-Seattle 34
Under Denver-Kansas City 46 ½