Cnotes 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[CNOTES]

Steelers can knock defending champ Bengals out of race
December 16, 2016


CINCINNATI (AP) The previous time the Steelers came to town, they knocked the Bengals out of the playoffs with a stunning last-minute rally.


They're headed back with a chance to inflict another loss that will leave a lasting mark.


The AFC North leaders would unseat the defending champions with a win on Sunday at Paul Brown Stadium.


The Steelers (8-5) can maintain control of the division by winning in a place that has a homey feel for them.


They've won their past three in Cincinnati and six of their past seven, including the 18-16 victory in the opening round of the playoffs last January.


Penalties on Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict and cornerback Adam ''Pacman'' Jones moved Pittsburgh in range for the winning field goal in the final seconds.


Their return trip to Cincinnati (5-7-1) was originally scheduled for prime time, given the animosity involved from the playoff game.


Burfict's hit to Antonio Brown's head left the receiver with a concussion, set up Pittsburgh's winning kick, and led to a three-game suspension from the NFL. Burfict sat out the Steelers' 24-16 win at Heinz Field on Sept. 18.


The game was switched to a daytime slot with the Bengals fading from contention, but the stakes are high for the Steelers. Plus, the hard feelings remain.


''We love playing against Pittsburgh, so we're eager for the week and the task at hand,'' Jones said. ''It's always different when we play those guys. Just one of those games that you mark on your calendar every year. I know I do, those two games.''


Pittsburgh has moved to the front of the pack in the division by winning four straight, with Le'Veon Bell rushing for at least 100 yards each game. He set a club record with 236 yards rushing last Sunday in a win over the Bills.


Bell also sat out the earlier meeting this season while serving an NFL suspension.


Thousands of Steelers fans are expected to make the five-hour drive and fill the stadium with their Terrible Towels, making the Steelers feel right at home.


''Typical one down there - crazy, riled up,'' said Ben Roethlisberger, who is 11-2 at Paul Brown Stadium. ''It's the AFC North. It's us coming to town. Maybe not as crazy as it would have been if it was that initial 8:30 p.m. (kickoff), but I still expect the fans to come out for it and for it to be a typical Steelers-Bengals game.''


Some things to watch on Sunday at Paul Brown Stadium:


ON A TEAR: The Steelers are reveling in what coach Mike Tomlin calls ''December Football.'' Pittsburgh is 13-2 over its past 15 games in December, a stretch that propelled the Steelers to playoff berths in 2014 and 2015. If they can do it again this season, the AFC North leaders will reach the postseason for the third straight year, something they haven't yet done during Tomlin's 10-year tenure.


''December football is all about running the ball and playing good defense, and we've done that,'' tackle Marcus Gilbert said.


AGELESS WONDER: Pittsburgh's resurgent pass rush has been led by 38-year-old linebacker James Harrison, who retired briefly in 2014 after spending a forgettable season with the Bengals before returning to the Steelers. Harrison's five sacks lead the team and he played every defensive snap in last week's victory over Buffalo.


''James is a marvel,'' Bengals coach Marvin Lewis said.


GETTING THEIR KICKS: The Bengals changed kickers during the week, releasing Mike Nugent after a string of missed extra points and field goals. They claimed Randy Bullock off waivers a day after he was released by the Steelers, who brought him in for a temporary stint while Chris Boswell recovered from an abdominal strain.


STOPPING AB: The Bengals focused on containing Brown during their game in Pittsburgh earlier this season, and it worked. He was held to four catches for 39 yards. Brown hasn't scored a touchdown in his past three games against Cincinnati. He needs one TD catch from Roethlisberger to make the two of them the Steelers' all-time duo, moving ahead of Terry Bradshaw and Lynn Swann, who also had 49 touchdown plays.


KEEPING COOL: Burfict has avoided the personal fouls that marred his career until this season, a sign that he's finally taking his coaches' and teammates' advice to heart. He has delivered some pushes after the whistle, but nothing egregious enough to warrant a flag for unsportsmanlike conduct. His demeanor will be tested against the Steelers, who will try to get him riled.


''I would, too,'' Jones said. ''He'll be all right.''

 

[CNOTES]

Ravens launch decisive stretch drive against fading Eagles
December 16, 2016


BALTIMORE (AP) The Baltimore Ravens and Philadelphia Eagles have veered in different directions after starting the season with three straight wins.


Employing a first-year coach and a rookie quarterback, Philadelphia couldn't sustain its early success.


Carson Wentz threw five touchdown passes and no interceptions in helping the Eagles open with victories over Cleveland, Chicago and Pittsburgh.


He has since been picked off 12 times, with only eight TD passes. That's just one reason why Philadelphia (5-8) has lost six of seven, including four in a row.


''Self-inflicted wounds and self-inflicted penalties have (prevented) us from maybe winning a few more games,'' coach Doug Pederson said.


The Ravens followed their 3-0 start with four straight defeats, but have rebounded to remain in the thick of the playoff chase. Baltimore (7-6) will win the AFC North if it defeats Philadelphia on Sunday, Pittsburgh on Christmas Day and Cincinnati in the finale.


''The Steelers game doesn't happen unless we win this game,'' Ravens safety Eric Weddle said. ''The Steelers game is on the backburner right now. It's all about Philly.''


Baltimore is on the rebound after losing at New England 30-23 on Monday night. The Ravens fell into a 23-3 hole before getting back into the game by taking advantage of two turnovers by the Patriots, but the overall performance of the team was disappointing following three wins in four weeks.


''Obviously, we weren't good enough to beat the Patriots,'' Weddle said. ''That's really what the reality comes down to, but that doesn't mean that our ultimate goal to win the division and get in the playoffs isn't attainable.''


Some things to know about the first meeting between Baltimore and Philadelphia since 2012:


FIRING AWAY: Wentz is 74 passes away from breaking Donovan McNabb's team record for attempts in one season.


Despite Pederson's desire to call a balanced game, he has relied more on the pass. Wentz has thrown 44.7 passes per game over the last seven after averaging 30.8 in the first six.


''I think it's putting him in a tough situation,'' Pederson said. ''I would love to be able to manage it and lean on that offensive line more with the run game. Obviously, we're going against a tough run defense this week, and yet we still have to be patient with that to help our quarterback.''


NEED TO RUN: Like the Eagles, the Ravens have all but abandoned the run recently.


Joe Flacco threw 52 passes against the Patriots, while the running game generated only 42 yards on 14 attempts.


''There is no doubt we are going to have to run the ball,'' Flacco said. ''We have to be able to hand the ball off and get yardage out of it because then it is going to get the play-action game going a little bit more and make it that much better.''


Baltimore owns the 28th-ranked rushing attack. Terrance West has the team's lone 100-yard game, against Oakland in Week 4.

NO SACK ATTACK: The Eagles have only eight sacks in the last seven games after getting 20 in the first six games.


Philadelphia has proven pass rushers with big contracts putting no pressure on quarterbacks. Fletcher Cox leads the way with 5 1/2 sacks, but he went eight straight games without one. Brandon Graham has two in the last 10 games and Vinny Curry has 1 1/2.


''You've got to be careful with judging it only on sacks, but sacks do affect the game,'' defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz said. ''Not only do you stop drives and get them for lost-yardage plays, but there is a high incidence of quarterbacks either getting tipped balls or throwing when they're getting hit and you're getting interceptions or fumbles. Those are the plays that we've been missing.''

SMITH NEEDED: The Ravens could be without standout cornerback Jimmy Smith, who sprained an ankle against the Patriots.


With Smith out, Tom Brady torched Baltimore for 406 yards and three touchdowns.


''We're not worried about who is going to play or who is not going to play,'' Weddle insisted. ''We'll play with the guys we have out there.''


If Smith can't go, that will put additional pressure on rookie cornerback Tavon Young, who knocked away two passes and had four solo tackles against New England.


''It's really important that Tavon is focused and ready to go,'' coach John Harbaugh said.


HAPPY RETURNS: Michael Campanaro will likely return kicks for the Ravens, who cut veteran Devin Hester on Tuesday.


Activated from the practice squad Wednesday, Campanaro has five career punt returns for an average of 13.2 yards and is averaging 26.3 yards on three career kickoff returns.


Lardarius Webb is also an option for returning punts, though he's the starting safety.

 

[CNOTES]

Moore, Dolphins look to beat Jets and clinch winning season
December 16, 2016


EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) Matt Moore last started an NFL game in the 2011 season finale, when the Miami Dolphins beat the New York Jets and Todd Bowles was his coach.


Well, Bowles is on the other sideline now, and the veteran quarterback is stepping in for Ryan Tannehill on Saturday night at MetLife Stadium when the AFC East rivals meet for the second time this season.


''I have a lot of respect for Matt,'' said Bowles, the Jets coach who served as Miami's interim coach for the final three games in 2011. ''He hasn't played in a while, obviously. Tannehill's been playing good for them. Matt's a competitor. I know he can throw the football and he'll be ready to play.''


Tannehill is sidelined with a strained left knee, which will sideline him for the first time in his NFL career.


With the Dolphins (8-5) looking to clinch their first winning season since 2008, Moore will be under center after leading Miami on the winning drive last Sunday against Arizona.


''I've done this before,'' the 32-year-old Moore said. ''I'm just trying to jump in and have these guys and myself really not miss a beat.''


It's been a busy week for Moore, whose wife gave birth to their son Wyatt on Monday. Now, the quarterback is trying to keep the Dolphins in the playoff hunt. Miami is in the thick of things in the AFC, but is on the outside looking in for the final wild-card because of tiebreakers with Denver (8-5).


''If you're a Miami fan, you've been looking forward to it for a long time,'' wide receiver Jarvis Landry said. ''Just being here and to just see how things have evolved, where we came from and where we have the position to be heading to, it's amazing. It's something that definitely makes you jump out of bed in the morning and come to work with a smile on your face.''


Meanwhile, the Jets (4-9) are hoping to play spoiler and looking to avoid being swept by the Dolphins in a season series for the first time since 2009. Bryce Petty will make his second straight start for New York after leading the Jets to a 23-17 overtime win at San Francisco.


''It was kind of a statement deal for, I think, everybody that we're not just going to lay down,'' Petty said. ''We have three games left now and a lot of good things to come for this team.''


Here are some other things to know when the Dolphins and Jets meet Saturday night:


POSTSEASON SCENARIOS: The Dolphins have a chance to end a seven-season playoff drought, but players insist they're paying little attention to the standings.


''We're somewhere in the middle, the top, the bottom. Who knows?'' defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh said. ''We all understand what's ahead of us and what we need to do.''


To make the playoffs, Miami needs to win one more game than the Broncos the rest of the way, meaning if Denver goes 2-1, the Dolphins would need to go 3-0.


ROBBY THE ROOKIE: In his last four games, rookie Robby Anderson leads the Jets with 263 yards receiving on 15 catches.


Anderson signed as an undrafted free agent out of Temple. He had an uphill climb to make New York's roster, but impressed the coaching staff with his speed and athleticism. He's fourth on the team with 34 catches and ranks eighth among rookie wide receivers in team history with 464 yards receiving.

MIAMI MILESTONE: Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi needs 44 yards for 1,000, but has averaged only 3.1 yards per carry in the past three games.


Ajayi had consecutive 200-yard games in October. He hasn't reached triple figures since running for 111 against the Jets in Game 8, and coach Adam Gase blames injuries on the offensive line, stout defensive fronts and bad luck.


''We're a shoelace away so many different times, where all of a sudden that 5-yard gain is going to be 25,'' Gase said. ''I don't want him to change anything he's doing because he's doing exactly what we need him to do, and he's doing exactly the same thing he did when we had those big-time rushing numbers. He just can't get frustrated thinking it's something with him.''

BOOM-BOOM-POWELL: After Matt Forte went down with a knee injury early against San Francisco, Bilal Powell came in and rushed for 145 yards , the second-highest total of career, and two TDs, including a 19-yard game-winning run in OT.


His 179 yards from scrimmage were the most by a Jets running back on the road since Curtis Martin's 175 in 2004 vs. St Louis. Forte is uncertain to play against the Dolphins, so Powell could be in for another busy game - which could also be big for his fantasy owners.


O-LINE SHUFFLE: Continuity has been an issue for New York's offensive line because of injuries, with starting center Nick Mangold, left tackle Ryan Clady and right tackle Breno Giacomini all on injured reserve. Only left guard James Carpenter has started every game.


The Jets have used seven different combinations of linemen and could see an eighth on Saturday. If Brent Qvale (hamstring) is unable to play right tackle, rookie Brandon Shell could make his first NFL start.

 

[CNOTES]

Falcons try to edge closer to playoffs against reeling 49ers
December 16, 2016


ATLANTA (AP) Four years after losing to San Francisco in the NFC championship game at the Georgia Dome, the Atlanta Falcons finally are moving closer to a return to the playoffs.


The 49ers are far from the playoffs as they try to end a franchise-record 12-game losing streak in Sunday's game against the Falcons.


The Falcons (8-5) are tied for the NFC South lead and hold the tiebreaker advantage over Tampa Bay. They are trying for their first winning record since finishing 13-3 with the loss to the 49ers in the NFC championship game to end their 2012 season.


Quarterback Matt Ryan says he's not following other scores, including the Buccaneers, during games.


''I don't worry about it too much,'' Ryan said Wednesday. ''At the end of the day, we have to play our best. ... What everybody else does, if we handle our business it doesn't matter.''


Despite playing without injured wide receivers Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, the Falcons rolled to a 42-14 win at the Los Angeles Rams last week.


Atlanta may be without Jones , who has a sprained toe, for the second straight week. Sanu is expected to return from a groin injury.


The Falcons average a league-leading 32.9 points per game as Ryan already has his sixth straight season with 4,000 yards passing. It's a tough test for the reeling 49ers (1-12), who are allowing the most points (30.2) per game in the league.


''They're as good of an offense as there is right now in the NFL,'' said Niners defensive coordinator Jim O'Neil, who added Ryan is ''as good of a quarterback as you have right now in the NFL.''


The Falcons offense has strong balance. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman each have seven rushing touchdowns. Ryan has thrown scoring passes to 11 targets, including to Justin Hardy and Taylor Gabriel last week.


''They're probably the most complete offense that we've faced all year,'' O'Neil said. ''So it'll be a challenge. We're going to have to play really good football.''


It was a confidence-building week for the Falcons.


''I think it's always hard anytime you have your top two wide receivers down,'' Ryan said. ''It's tough to replace that. Our guys stepped up great.''

Here are some things to watch as the Falcons face the 49ers:


NO FUMBLES: Freeman and Coleman have no fumbles in their combined 269 carries and 62 receptions. Freeman leads the team with 791 yards rushing. Coleman has 328 yards rushing.


''I have a ton of respect for them and the fact they haven't fumbled the ball this year, that's incredible,'' left tackle Jake Matthews said. ''That goes to show you how hard they've been working at it. In my mindset, that means you just keep giving them opportunities to make plays. They're really special players.''


FAST STARTS, SLOW FINISHES: Starting fast hasn't been a problem for the Niners, who have scored first in 10 of their 13 games. The problem has been San Francisco lost nine of those, tying the NFL record for most losses when scoring first, according to Pro Football Reference.


The Niners blew their third 14-point lead of the season last week to the Jets. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has been a big part of the problem. Kaepernick leads all qualifying QBs in passer rating (119.5), completion percentage (71.7) and yards per attempt (9.4) in the first half, while ranking last at 42.9 percent completions and 4.6 yards per attempt, and second worst with a 61.3 rating the rest of the game.


''If there was one thing we could do that we could change it, we would,'' Kaepernick said. ''There are a lot of things that play into that. But, once again, we have to be able to be better in the second half.''


BEASLEY'S BREAKOUT: Atlanta second-year linebacker/defensive end Vic Beasley continued his breakout season with three sacks last week. He has 13 + sacks to share the NFL lead with Denver's Von Miller. Beasley leads the league with six forced fumbles, including one against the Rams he returned 21 yards for a touchdown.


BUCKNER'S BOOST: One of the rare bright spots for San Francisco has been the play of first-round defensive lineman DeForest Buckner. Buckner had two sacks against the Jets. Buckner has played the third-most defensive snaps of any defensive lineman in the league this season and has missed just six defensive plays the past five games, according to Pro Football Focus.


''There's just no way you can take that guy out and there's no way he wants to be out,'' O'Neil said.


RUN AND HYDE: Carlos Hyde is coming off the best day of his career, having rushed 193 yards on just 17 carries last week against the Jets. Hyde had four runs of at least 20 yards, including 47- and 43-yarders, and also caught a 7-yard touchdown pass. Hyde needs just 121 yards over the final three games for his first career 1,000-yard season.

 

[CNOTES]

Joe Thomas leans on wit as Browns take 0-13 skid to Buffalo
December 16, 2016


ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) The one thing Joe Thomas hasn't lost so far during the Browns' winless start is his sense of humor.


Mention snow Buffalo's forecast this weekend, and Cleveland's tackle said: ''The ski slopes are happy.''


Bring up the Browns being in danger of going 0-16, and Thomas didn't miss a beat.


''Well, we wouldn't be the first team,'' he said with a distinct laugh.


In 2008, the Detroit Lions were the first - and so far only - NFL team to not win during a 16-game season. The Browns (0-13), who play at the Bills (6-7) on Sunday, are in contention to double the list of futility.


The best way Thomas knows how to deal with avoiding that possibility is preparing as diligently as he can and leaning on humor as a coping mechanism.


''Definitely this season you have to cope with the difficulties of not winning a game,'' the 10th-year veteran said. ''It could be overwhelming when you think of a whole season at one time and trying to avoid being 0-16.''


The Browns are running out of opportunities.


What's worse is Cleveland has actually lost 16 in a row, dating to a 24-10 win against San Francisco on Dec. 13. Yes, the Browns haven't won in a calendar year.


This year's struggles are the result of yet another top-to-bottom upheaval, this time under Hue Jackson, their fourth coach since owner Jimmy Haslam took over in October 2012.


Difficult as it might be to accept in the short term, Thomas supports what the Browns are doing by attempting to stockpile draft picks and build through youth. The key, he said, is sticking with a commitment to establish a semblance of continuity under Jackson.


''Part of the reason we haven't been able to turn it around is instability leads to poor performance,'' Thomas said. ''But that's why I'm so optimistic in our future because I think Jimmy Haslam has finally committed to this organization, this management team and coaching staff.''


The Bills are no strangers to revolving doors at coach, general manager and quarterback. It's a key reason behind why they're in jeopardy of extending the NFL's longest active playoff drought to 17 years.


And more change could be on the way with questions being raised about Rex Ryan's job security after just two seasons.


Receiver Sammy Watkins rallied to Ryan's defense in saying he has no interest in Buffalo changing coaches.


''I don't want to keep going through all this craziness,'' Watkins said. ''That kills a player and a team and an organization.''


As a result, losing to the Browns is not an option.


''We can't let that let that happen,'' Watkins said. ''It'll look bad on everybody.''


What else to look for Sunday:


TRAILING: The Browns have not had a lead in 13-plus quarters, dating to a 7-6 edge at halftime in a 28-7 loss at Baltimore on Nov. 10. Cleveland also squandered a 20-0 lead in a 25-20 loss to Baltimore on Sept. 18, and a 20-7 halftime lead in a 31-28 loss to the New York Jets on Oct. 3.


FADING: Buffalo is coming off a 27-20 loss to Pittsburgh , in which running back Le'Veon Bell had 236 yards rushing to set a Steelers franchise record, and a Bills franchise record for most allowed. A week earlier at Oakland, the Bills squandered a 24-9 third-quarter lead in a 38-24 loss at Oakland.


Aside from a 16-0 win over a New England team minus quarterback Tom Brady (suspension), Buffalo's five other wins are against teams with a combined record of 17-46-2.


SNOW CROW: Browns running back Isaiah Crowell grew up in the South, but he runs like he's from the Midwest. Despite slippery, snowy conditions, Crowell gained 113 yards on just 10 carries last week in a loss to Cincinnati. He wanted more opportunities, but Cleveland fell behind 13-0, which changed the game plan. Crowell, who has three 100-yard rushing games this season, feels his running style is perfectly suited for the cold.


''I really feel it's natural,'' he said.


Informed Bell had 38 carries on a snow-covered field in Buffalo last weekend, Crowell said: ''I'd take that.''


MEMORIES: Two of Thomas' favorite games are wins over Buffalo. There was the Browns' 8-0 win played during a blizzard that hit Cleveland on Dec. 16, 2007. And then there was the 6-3 victory at Buffalo two years later in which Cleveland starter Derek Anderson went 2 of 17 for 23 yards and an interception. Cleveland won on Billy Cundiff's 18-yard field goal with 23 seconds remaining, and set up by Buffalo's Roscoe Parrish muffing a punt at his 16.


''Two completed passes, an NFL record,'' Thomas said. ''One of my many records in the NFL that I'm proud of.''


ONE MORE YEAR: When asked if two seasons are enough to judge a coach, Buffalo's Ryan smiled and said: ''I think three years is better.''

 

[CNOTES]

NFL THURS- MONDAY RECORD AND BEST BETS:


12/01/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
12/04/2016 15-10-1 60.00% +2000
12/05/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/08/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
12/11/2016 17-10-0 62.96% +3000
12/12/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/15/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 115-130-8 46.94% -14000


O/U Picks 116-130-6 47.15% -13500


Triple Plays:..... 62 - 64 - 4


BIG PLAYS FOR OCT/NOV 5 - 8 - 1
BIG PLAYS FOR DEC. 6 - 2


12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 1 KANSAS CITY + 4' 29/ N. ORLEANS 28
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL SNOW FAVORITE OF THE DAY G. BAY - 6 21 / HOUSTON 13
12/04- 1 - 0 NFL TOTAL OF THE DAY. UN 44 SAN FRAN/ CHICAGO 26 - 6
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 2 BUFFALO + 3 24 / OAKLAND 38
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 3 TAMPA + 3' 28 / SAN DIEGO 21
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 4 WASHINGTON + 2' 23 / ARIZONA 31
12/08- 1 - 0 NFL THUR. NIGHT GOY K.C. - 3 / OAKLAND 21 - 13
12/08 - 1 - 0 NFL THUR. NIGHT TOTAL OF THE NIGHT KC / OAKLAND UN 46 21 - 13

 

[CNOTES]

Pick Six - Week 15
December 17, 2016

Week 14 Record: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS
Overall Record: 38-42 SU, 36-45-1 ATS


Lions at Giants (-4, 41) – 1:00 PM EST


Detroit
Record: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS, 9-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1


The Lions keep continuing to show they are not a fluke, coming off their fifth consecutive victory last Sunday against the Bears, 20-17. Although Detroit didn’t cover as 7 ½-point home favorites, quarterback Matthew Stafford overcame a finger injury to score the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter as the Lions cashed the UNDER for the seventh straight game. Detroit’s defense has been fantastic during this stretch, giving up 20 points or less in each of the past seen contests, while seeking its third consecutive road win after starting the season with 1-3 record overall.


New York
Record: 9-4 SU, 7-5-1 ATS, 10-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 22/1


The Giants are the only team in the league to beat the Cowboys and New York accomplished that feat for the second time this season in last Sunday’s 10-7 triumph. New York didn’t compile many yards from an offensive standpoint (260 yards), but the Giants took the lead for good thanks to an Eli Manning 61-yard touchdown connection with Odell Beckham, Jr. late in the third quarter. The Giants improved to 6-1 at Met Life Stadium, while riding a five-game streak to the UNDER overall. New York is facing Detroit for the first time since the 2014 season opener when the Lions blasted the Giants, 35-14 at Ford Field.


Best Bet: New York -4


Colts at Vikings (-4, 45 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


Indianapolis
Record: 6-7 SU, 6-6-1 ATS, 8-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1


The Colts were dealt a huge blow in their chances to win the AFC South title following last Sunday’s 22-17 home defeat to the Texans as 6 ½-point favorites. Indianapolis has not lost consecutive games since the first two weeks of the season as the Colts are 5-0 SU/ATS in their last five contests off a defeat. The Colts have performed well on the highway recently by winning three straight road games, while scoring at least 31 points in each of those victories.


Minnesota
Record: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS, 8-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 85/1


The Vikings haven’t had much luck this season as both quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and running back Adrian Peterson were injured early on. Bridgewater won’t return this season, but Peterson will come back following an 11-game absence due to a right knee injury. Peterson is a welcome sign for a Minnesota team that has won only twice in the last eight games since a 5-0 start. The Vikings knocked off the Jaguars last Sunday, 25-16 as three-point road favorites as Sam Bradford threw for 292 yards and a touchdown. Minnesota has been a solid team to back at U.S. Bank Stadium this season by going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS.


Best Bet: Indianapolis +4


Titans at Chiefs (-4 ½, 42 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


Tennessee
Record: 7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS, 9-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 85/1


The Titans are right in the mix of the AFC South race as Tennessee faces Houston in Week 17 at home. However, Tennessee needs to take care of business in Kansas City on Sunday on the heels off a huge victory over another AFC West foe, Denver last week. The Titans knocked off the Broncos, 13-10, while limiting Denver to 18 yards rushing on nine carries. Tennessee has held its own away from Nissan Stadium with a 3-3 road record, including outright underdog triumphs at Detroit and Miami.


Kansas City
Record: 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS, 9-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 17/2


The Chiefs braved the frigid temperatures at Arrowhead Stadium last Thursday night to pull off the season sweep of the rival Raiders, 21-13 to cash as 3 ½-point favorites. Kansas City holds the tiebreaker advantage over Oakland atop the AFC West as each team enters Sunday’s action at 10-3. The Chiefs improved to 5-1 at Arrowhead with the win, but Kansas City has cashed only twice in the role of a home favorite this season. Kansas City looks to avenge a 26-10 setback to Tennessee suffered in the 2014 season opener as the Titans outgained the Chiefs, 405-245.


Best Bet: Tennessee +4 ½


Steelers (-3, 45) at Bengals – 1:00 PM EST


Pittsburgh
Record: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS, 9-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1


The Steelers knocked the Bengals out of the playoffs last season in the Wild Card round, as Pittsburgh seeks its third straight postseason appearance. Mike Tomlin’s squad has won four consecutive games, including each of the past three away from Heinz Field. The Steelers cashed in each of those victories, as Pittsburgh is fresh off a 27-20 triumph at Buffalo as running back Le’Veon Bell rushed for a career-high 236 yards and three touchdowns. Pittsburgh has won six of the past seven matchups with Cincinnati, including a 24-16 victory at Heinz Field in Week 2 as three-point favorites.


Cincinnati
Record: 5-7-1 SU, 5-8 ATS, 7-6 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF


It may be too little, too late for the defending AFC North champion Bengals to qualify for the playoffs. However, Cincinnati is looking to finish strong, coming off back-to-back wins over Philadelphia and Cleveland the last two weeks. The Bengals’ defense is stepping up of late by allowing 19 points or less in each of the past four games, while Cincinnati is currently on a 4-1 run to the UNDER. Cincinnati is listed as a home underdog with Andy Dalton starting at quarterback for the first time since Week 16 of the 2014 season in a 37-28 victory over Denver.


Best Bet: Cincinnati +3


Patriots (-3, 44) at Broncos – 4:25 PM EST


New England
Record: 11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS, 8-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 13/5


The Patriots are eyeing the top seed in the AFC after finishing with the second seed last season. New England fell short of consecutive Super Bowl appearances after losing at Denver in the AFC Championship, 20-18 as three-point favorites. The Pats have dropped their past three visits to Sports Authority Field as they put their 6-0 road record on the line on Sunday. Bill Belichick’s club has covered in five of six away contests this season, while facing their third different Denver quarterback since last October (Trevor Siemian, Peyton Manning, Brock Osweiler).


Denver
Record: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS, 7-6 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1


The Broncos are back at home in a must-win spot as the defending champions face a treacherous three-game stretch to close the season. Following New England, Denver takes on division rival Kansas City on the road before hosting Oakland in the season finale. The Broncos are coming off a three-point loss at Tennessee last week, but Denver has dropped back-to-back games only once this season. Since Gary Kubiak took over as head coach last season, the Broncos have produced a 9-2 ATS mark in the underdog role, including a 3-0 SU/ATS ledger as a home ‘dog.


Best Bet: Denver +3


Raiders (-3, 49) at Chargers – 4:25 PM EST


Oakland
Record: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS, 10-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1


The Raiders are 10-1 this season against any team not from Kansas City as Oakland suffered its second loss to its division rivals last Thursday. Oakland is back on the road with a trip to San Diego, going for the sweep of the Chargers. The last time these teams met up at the Black Hole in early October, the Raiders rallied for a 34-31 triumph as both Derek Carr and Philip Rivers eclipsed the 320-yard mark. Oakland is listed as a road favorite for only the second time this season, as the Raiders are 4-3 ATS this season when laying points.


San Diego
Record: 5-8 SU, 7-6 ATS, 8-4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF


The Chargers have played to plenty of exciting finishes this season, but are running out steam down the stretch following interconference losses to the Buccaneers and Panthers. San Diego has fallen apart in each of its last two home defeats to Tampa Bay and Miami by allowing 45 second half points in those setbacks. The Chargers have lost three straight meetings with the Raiders, but the underdog has cashed in nine of the past 10 matchups, including San Diego’s cover as 3 ½-point ‘dogs in Week 5 at Oakland.


Best Bet: Oakland -3

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday’s six-pack


Six most popular picks in Week 15 of the Westgate SuperContest:


6) Patriots (430) -3.5


5) Lions (433) +4


4) Ravens (456) -5.5


3) Raiders (501) -3


2) Buccaneers (593) +6.5


1) Steelers (603) -3


Sunday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday…….


13) Kentucky 103, North Carolina 100— A GREAT advertisement for college basketball, just a tremendous game. Malik Monk had 47 for the Wildcats.


if the Final Four isn’t from this group: Villanova-UNC-Kentucky-UCLA-Duke, it will be a surprise, which means who the 4th #1 seed is will be critical, because the “5th #1” will be the 2-seed in that same region as the 4th #1.


12) One of the cool things about college basketball is that during pre-conference play, you want teams in your league to win….seriously. It raises the platform of the whole league and could mean an extra bid to the NCAA tournament in March.


Kentucky beating North Carolina could help….say Texas A&M get a play-in spot over Virginia Tech. You never know.


Put it this way; San Diego State’s regression in the Mountain West hurts everyone in the league, especially potential bubble teams like Nevada.


11) Over the last four years, Los Angeles Dodgers have shelled out $113M, just in luxury tax payments- they’re expected to be over the cap again this coming season.


10) OK there is a Mercedes commercial where the young teenage boy bugs his dad to drive thru a snowstorm so he can meet his girlfriend at a movie theater. The father reluctantly does, and no one is there, but because it is TV, the girl shows up….in her parents’ Mercedes. The only two cars on the road. In a snowstorm.


Do these people not own cellphones? Do kids not text each other? Couldn’t they just watch movies at one of their houses, so one parent wouldn’t have to drive? Why does this bother me?


9) You know how Boise State has a blue football field? Well, Eastern Washington has a red field; it doesn’t look bad on TV but who decided this was a good idea?


8) Houston Rockets made 24-61 3-pointers Friday night, most 3’s ever taken/made in an NBA game. Just for the record, Phoenix Suns are 316-350 since they stupidly fired D’Antoni 8.5 years ago- they were 253-136 with D’Antoni as head coach.


7) Highland Park HS won the Texas 5-A state championship Friday night; why do I mention this? QB for Highland Park is Jerry Jones’ grandson. Imagine their booster club has some serious cash.


6) UCLA 86, Ohio State 73— Buckeyes did good job in first half of running offense, making possessions longer to keep UCLA from running, but then they didn’t in second half and Bruins pulled away. UCLA is great fun to watch because of freshman PG Lonzo Ball, who reminds lot of people of Jason Kidd— he gets the open guy the ball and UCLA has lot of kids who can put the ball in the basket, if they get it in the right place.


5) Purdue 86, Notre Dame 81— Irish led by 14 at the half, but Boilers stormed back and got Matt Painter a big win. Dick Vitale’s daughters went to Notre Dame, so if ESPN puts him on a ND game, they’re begging me to change the channel— it is intolerable to listen to him.


4) Phillies gave CF Odubel Herrera $30.5M for five years; he hit .286 with 15 HRs for the Phils last summer. Herrera is the first player Philly has under contract for 2018, which is next season. For a big market team to have such roster flexibility is interesting.


By the way, the word processing program on my MacBook Pro has an annoying auto-correct that changes Odubel to double every time I type it. Every time.


3) Lane Kiffin’s move to Florida Atlantic means that Steve Sarkisian is the new OC at Alabama, once the Crimson Tide’s season is over. Good to see Sarkisian get a second chance in life; hope he makes the most of it.


2) Brandon Shell, the Jets’ right tackle this week, is nephew of the great Art Shell, the Raiders’ Hall of Famer. If he is anything like his uncle, young Shell is a keeper.


1) West Virginia coach Bob Huggins won his 800th game Saturday, just 10th college coach to do so. He looks gruff on TV but I’ve met him twice and he’s a pretty normal guy to talk to, and when he was sitting in the lobby at an AAU tournament in Las Vegas in July of ‘15, a ton of people came up to talk to him. His teams are fun to watch. Congrats coach.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 15
December 16, 2016

The ‘under’ produced a 9-7 mark last weekend as only three teams were able to post 30 or more points up on the scoreboard. Perhaps the biggest surprise from last weekend is that a couple games dealing with the elements went ‘over’ while both indoor games leaned to the low side. Through 14 weeks, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge (104-102-1) on the season.


Be on the Lookout!


-- Including the Rams-Seahawks matchup this past Thursday, we’ve seen 10 totals this season close in the thirties. The ‘under’ has gone 8-2 in those games and as of Friday afternoon, it looks like there will be three more contests nearing that territory.


-- Ironically, the Browns have seen the ‘under’ cash in five straight games yet none of their totals have ever been in the thirties.


-- The Vikings are staring at their highest total of the season (45 ½) as the Colts visit on Sunday. Minnesota has scored 25, 31 and 25 in its first three matchups against the AFC South this season, all ‘over’ winners. Meanwhile, Indy has seen the ‘over’ cash in all three games versus the NFC North. Not sure what will come of it but running back Adrian Peterson is expected


-- High total in the desert (50) this Sunday between the Cardinals and Saints. Be aware that Arizona is 6-1 to the ‘under’ at home and New Orleans is 4-2 to the ‘under’ on the road.


-- New England visits Denver in Week 15 and it’s been held to 18, 24 and 16 points in its last three trips to Mile High.


-- Two of the best ‘under’ teams meet in New York this weekend as the Giants (10-3) and Lions (9-4) square off.


Divisional Matchups


Miami at N.Y. Jets (Saturday): The Ryan Tannehill injury completely changes the dynamic of this game, especially with Matt Moore taking over at quarterback for Miami. He’s a backup for a reason and even though he helped the Dolphins win last week, he’s a major drop-off. I expect Miami to ground-and-pound the Jets with their running game and try not to make any mistakes. New York is averaging 11 points per game in its last three home games and I don’t see a drastic improvement here. The total (37 ½) is low for a reason and even though the ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings, it’s hard to make a case for the high side.


Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The ‘under’ has cashed in four of the last five meetings, which includes the Steelers 24-16 over the Bengals in Week 2 at home. That total was 48 ½ and the rematch is set for 44. Despite being known for its offense, Pittsburgh has been a great ‘under’ bet (9-4) and the defense has picked up the pace the last four games (12.5 PPG) albeit against much weaker foes. Cincinnati’s defense (16.6 PPG) has been much better at home and it’s ranked second in interceptions (15) and sixth in sacks (36).


Green Bay at Chicago: This total opened 42 ½ and has dropped to 39 ½ as of Friday with super-low temperatures expected in “The Windy City” on Sunday. The first meeting between the pair went ‘under’ (46 ½) the number as Green Bay earned a 26-10 win at home. The Packers defense has finally got on track and only allowed 36 points the last three weeks. Chicago, despite playing with backups, has been competitive under head coach John Fox and tight divisional games usually lean to ‘under’ tickets.


Jacksonville at Houston: The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in this series and the first meeting between the pair on Nov. 13 barely went to the high side (42) as Houston dropped Jacksonville 24-21 on the road. The Texans and Jaguars sort of mirror one another. They both have sound defensive units and quarterbacks that look terrible more often than not. Houston (-7) and Jacksonville (-17) are two of the worst turnover-prone teams and that could be both good and bad for either the ‘over’ or the ‘under.’ The Texans defense (17.2 PPG) at home has been tough for all opponents and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 4-2 at NRG Stadium.


Oakland at San Diego: These teams played to a shootout on Oct. 9 in Oakland as the Raiders captured a 34-31 win over the Chargers and the ‘over’ (50 ½) connected. Round two has a lower number (49 ½) but I expect the public to push it back up come Sunday afternoon. The Raiders (10-3) and Chargers (8-4-1) have both been great ‘over’ bets this season and they’re style dictates high-scoring games. A couple factors that could make me hesitant backing the ‘over’ is the health of Raiders QB Derrick Carr (finger) and his top two wide receivers (Cooper, Crabtree) have been limited in practice this week. For San Diego, it’s not expected to have running back Melvin Gordon (hip) and the back-and-forth travel has taken a serious toll on the offense (19.3 PPG) the last three weeks.


Coast to Coast


Bettors saw this popular total trend go 1-1 last week and these results could’ve gone 2-0 to the high or low sides. The Arizona-Miami ‘over’ connected with the help of a late touchdown and two-point conversion while the Carolina-San Diego matchup ran out of gas in the second-half and stayed ‘under’ the number.


Through 18 games, the ‘over’ holds a 14-4 (78%) record when teams from the West Coast are playing in the Eastern Time Zone. If you track back to the 2015 campaign, the ‘over’ is 25-9 (74%) the last two seasons.


Week 15 has one situation on tap and to no surprise, the oddsmakers are expecting a shootout.


San Francisco at Atlanta: The Falcons are tied for the best ‘over’ record (11-2) this season and that includes an impressive 6-0 mark at home. Atlanta’s scoring offense (32.9 PPG) is ranked first in the league and the numbers (33.5 PPG) have been a touch better at the Georgia Dome. That unit will be facing the worst scoring defense in San Francisco (30.2 PPG) and its numbers have been worse on the road (34.7 PPG). Even though the 49ers attack isn’t spectacular, the Falcons defense (376.3 YPG) is ranked 28th in total yards and they don’t have a bunch of takeaways (18). San Francisco does enter this game on a strong ‘under’ run (4-1 last 5) but it has seen the ‘over’ cash in its first three games on the East Coast this season and it allowed 46, 45 and 31 points in those games.


The last game featuring a West Coast team playing in the Eastern Time Zone takes place next Saturday when San Diego visits Cleveland.


Under the Lights


The ‘under’ went 2-1 in the primetime matchups last week and it could’ve been 3-0 if the Baltimore-New England result on Monday didn’t close with a late surge. Through 14 weeks and this past Thursday’s outcome between Seattle and Los Angeles, the ‘under’ has gone 23-20-1 in night games this season. We only have one Thursday night matchup left and bettors will be starting at a six-game ‘under’ run In Week 16 when the Giants and Eagles meet.


Tampa Bay at Dallas: The Buccaneers, winners in five straight, have been lights out defensively (12.8 PPG) during their current win streak. The once potent Dallas offense has only managed to score 24 points the last two weeks but that came against quality defensive units in the Vikings and Giants. Are the Bucs on that level? They certainly belong in the conversation and it’s hard to make to ignore the fact that tied for the most takeaways (25) in the league. Since losing its home opener, Dallas is averaging 29.2 PPG in its last five and that’s led to a 3-2 ‘over’ mark.


Carolina at Washington: Weather permitting, this game has all the makings for a classic Monday Night Football shootout. This total (50 ½) is high but Washington has posted the same ‘over’ numbers as Atlanta, 11-2 overall and 6-0 at home. The Redskins have a knack for moving the chains and the defense (24.4 PPG) hasn’t been able to play consistently for 60 minutes. Carolina’s defense (25.9 PPG) has been worse and it’s been embarrassed (32.5 PPG) on the road, which has helped the ‘over’ go 5-1 in its away games. Carolina is a longshot to make the playoffs but from a total perspective, this quote from QB Cam Newton after last week's win makes you believe they'll finish strong. He said, "Offensively, not to rain on the win, we have to put up points - points as in getting touchdowns."


Fearless Predictions


Back on the winning track ($190) and could’ve been a sweep if the offensive unit of the Rams showed up a tad earlier. The deficit is down 2 ½ bucks ($260) with three weeks left in the regular season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


Best Over: Indianapolis-Minnesota 45 ½


Best Under: Green Bay-Chicago 39 ½


Best Team Total: Under 23 ½ Kansas City


Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Under 48 ½ Green Bay-Chicago
Over 41 ½ San Francisco-Atlanta
Over 41 ½ Carolina-Washington

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 15
December 16, 2016


The Steelers-Bengals game got flexed out of its originally scheduled Sunday night time slot in Week 15 NFL action, but bettors in Las Vegas are finding it the most attractive game of the week through the bet windows.


William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada have taken 97 percent of its cash on the game and 90 percent of the tickets written on the Steelers to make it their most one-sided game of the week. CG Technology's seven Las Vegas sports books don't have as high of a disparity, but the risk is piling up quick.


"The biggest sweat we have right now is on the Steelers at Cincinnati," said CG's VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "We opened the Steelers 3-flat and we were been pushed up (the ladder) to -3 -130 and we're at -3.5 -105 right now."


Pittsburgh has won and covered its last four games and are finally living up to the high rating they started with at the beginning of the season. Meanwhile, Cincinnati -- after an awful start -- have won and covered its last two. When the two teams met in Week 2 at Hines Field, the Steelers won 24-16 as 3-point favorites. From then to now shows a massive rating change with most of it coming from the Bengals dropping down the charts.


Cold weather is going to be a factor with several of the midwest and northern sites this week. Cincinnati has a 20 percent chance of snow at 23 degrees with 13 mph winds. However, CG books have been bet up from 44 to 45.


The coldest site on Sunday will be at Soldier Field in Chicago at zero degrees with winds at 15 mph, which gives the Packers now three straight freezing games. Green Bay has looked good while winning three straight, but sharp money thinks they're inflated this week.


"They (wise guys) went the other way taking the Bears at +6.5 and +6, and they've also taken the Bears on the money-line (+250) as well. This is our next biggest risk after the Steelers game, but we've taken in probably only 18 percent of the overall action we'll see this weekend," said Simbal, who currently has the Packers -5.5 and the Bears money-line at +215.


William Hill books haven't seen that same type of sharp action and their ticket counts have the Packers written at an 84 percent clip. Green Bay won 26-10 in the Week 7 meeting, which was sandwiched in between five bad looking losses. The Bears have been very competitive lately -- playing above their low rating -- covering the number in their last four.


Another cold weather site has some lopsided Buffalo action where the big question is when the Browns when will finally win. It's also the first time in two months where the Browns aren't getting extreme value to the number of close to 3-points from the true rating.


"We've had just over $10,000 in bets on the Bills and only $350 on the Browns. That's it," Simbal said. "However, it's the complete opposite with the money-line where we have $4,000 on the Browns (+450) and nothing on the Bills."


It could be that the wise-guys are simply giving up on the Browns who have gone 0-7 ATS the last seven weeks. They don't figure to be any better with 20 mph winds on Sunday. The total is sitting at 42 and the Browns have stayed Under the total in their last five contributing an average of just under 10 ppg.


Here's some other sharp plays that Simbal has been seeing early on this week:


"We've seen action on the Saints (+3) at Arizona and while we were heavy early on with New England (-3) action, we evened things out a bit with one large bet on the Broncos."


"We've also seen more action on Tampa Bay taking +8 and +7.5, and they also like the Bucs (+280) money-line."


"We're seeing Monday night shape up sooner than usual with who we need as they bet the Redskins heavy laying -3.5, -4.5 up to -6 (-115). We moved quickly through -5 and and took a few bets at -5.5."

 

[CNOTES]

SuperContest Picks - Week 15
December 17, 2016

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.


Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.


The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.


This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.


Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.


Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9


Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 | Week 14




Week 15


1) Pittsburgh -3 (603)


2) Tampa Bay +6.5 (593)


3) Oakland -3 (501)


4) Baltimore -5.5 (456)


5) Detroit +4 (433)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 15 MATCHUPS & ODDS


Away Team Selections Home Team Selections


Los Angeles (+16) 88 Seatle (-16) 46


Miami (-2.5) 229 N.Y. Jets (+2.5) 199


Tampa Bay (+6.5) 593 Dallas (-6.5) 250


Detroit (+4) 433 N.Y. Giants (-4) 238


Philadelphia (+5.5) 121 Baltimore (-5.5) 456


Green Bay (-6.5) 382 Chicago (+6.5) 376


Indianapolis (+4.5) 230 Minnesota (-4.5) 390


Cleveland (+10) 131 Buffalo (-10) 235


Tennessee (+5) 362 Kansas City (-5) 335


Jacksonville (+6) 179 Houston (-6) 257


New Orleans (+2.5) 102 Arizona (-2.5) 351


San Francisco (+13.5) 72 Atlanta (-13.5) 265


New England (-3.5) 430 Denver (+3.5) 360


Oakland (-3) 501 San Diego (+3) 244


Pittsburgh (-3) 603 Cincinnati (+3) 215


Carolina (+6.5) 336 Washington (-6.5) 121




WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS


Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%
4 1-4 4-16 20%
5 3-2 7-18 28%
6 1-3-1 8-21-1 28%
7 3-2 11-23-1 32%
8 3-2 14-25-1 35%
9 2-3 16-28-1 36%
10 0-5 16-33-1 32%
11 3-2 19-35-1 35%
12 5-0 24-35-1 40%
13 3-2 27-37-1 42%
14 4-0-1 31-37-2 46%

 

[CNOTES]

Gridiron Angles - Week 15
December 17, 2016

NFL CHOICE TRENDS:


-- The Titans are 0-10-1 ATS (-7.05 ppg) since Dec 26, 2010 and off a win in which they never trailed.


-- The Steelers are 0-10 OU (-8.35 ppg) since Oct 16, 2011 as a favorite off a game as a favorite where they had at least 400 yards total offense.


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:


-- The Colts are 10-0 ATS (10.25 ppg) since Dec 04, 2011 off a loss where they had less than 26 minutes of possession time.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:


-- The Bills are 0-11 ATS (-15.68 ppg) since Nov 25, 2007 off a game as a home dog where they scored less than expected.

TOP NFL PLAYER ATS TREND:


-- The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS (-10.00 ppg) since Dec 29, 2013 when Carson Palmer threw at least two interceptions last game.

TOP NFL PLAYER OU TREND:


-- The Colts are 7-0 OU (17.07 ppg) since Jan 04, 2014 after a home game where TY Hilton had at least seven receptions.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:


-- The Chiefs are 0-11 OU (-12.59 ppg) since Dec 16, 2012 after a game where they gained no more than 15 first downs.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Giants are 12-0-1 OU (12.35 ppg) since Nov 12, 2006 at home after a game that went under the total by at least 14 points.


NFL BIBLE O/U ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Patriots are 0-10 OU off a win as a home favorite in which they committed two-plus turnovers.


NFL BIBLE ATS ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Cowboys are 0-12 ATS as a home favorite off a SU and ATS loss.

NFL ATS SYSTEM:


-- Teams playing their final regular season home game which have won at least six of their first seven home games are 93-73-1 ATS. Active on NY Giants.

 

[CNOTES]

SNF - Bucs at Cowboys
December 17, 2016


The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5 straight up, 8-5 against the spread) come into Sunday night's game at AT&T Stadium riding a five game win and cover streak, while the Cowboys lost last week for the first time since Week 1 -- both losses against the Giants -- and have failed to cover their last three after reeling off nine straight covers. Dallas (11-2 SU, 9-3-1 ATS)) comes in as a seven-point favorite, but the number has dropped from its opener.

"We've also seen more action on Tampa Bay taking +8 and +7.5 (early), and they also like the Bucs money-line," CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal said on Friday.

CG books currently has Dallas -7 (-105) and the total has dropped from 47 to 46. The money-line has dropped from -350/+285 down to -300/+250

HAS THE DALLAS POWER RATING PEAKED?


During the Cowboys 9-0 ATS run, their power rating had climbed to the heights as the elite NFC team, but the betting patterns by wise guys so far suggest they believe that rating has peaked and reached its ceiling. Defenses around the league have seen enough film on the Cowboys to get a better feel how to slow its amazing running game while daring rookie quarterback Dak Prescott to throw deep, which he rarely does.

"I was reading this article the other day that said of all the QBs to start at least 10 games, his passes in the air have traveled the least amount of yards," Simbal said.

PRESCOTT HITTING ROOKIE WALL?


After two consecutive wins against the Steelers and Ravens (2-0 ATS) where Prescott threw for 300 or more yards, he's failed to throw over 200 yards in each of the last three games where Dallas went 0-3 ATS. And in the Cowboys 10-7 road loss to the Giants last week he had his first two-interception game after tossing just two in his first 12 games.

Maybe the wears of Prescott's first NFL season is something to think about. He never played more than 13 games in any of his four seasons at Mississippi State. He's also got the pressure of a healthy Tony Romo holding a clip-board on the sidelines, and although owner Jerry Jones has said there's no chance of a QB change, it's got to be a burden Prescott has weighing on his mind.

Still, the main attribute that Prescott brings to the Cowboys that keeps them winning is his conservative nature. While he doesn't have the big play capabilities that Romo brings, and WR Dez Bryant loves, his offense doesn't turn the ball over -- just 12 on the season. Prescott's running ability also adds an element the Dallas offense never had.

Legendary football coach Woody Hayes used to say three things can happen when you pass and two of them are bad. Dallas has used that philosophy this season better than anyone in recent NFL history. No matter how you slice it, the Cowboys are 11-2 looking at home field throughout the playoffs. It's that ball control offense that masks what is essentially a mediocre Dallas defense.

BUCS RATING RISING WEEKLY


On the other side, the Buccaneers rating is still climbing and it's no coincidence that their five-game winning streak started when running back Doug Martin was inserted into the lineup after missing the previous six games with a hamstring injury. Martin has given the Bucs some stability and opened the field up more for QB Jameis Winston to find an open target.

Perhaps the biggest boost for Tampa Bay lately has been its defense that has allowed an average of 12.8 points per game in the last five games while creating 14 turnovers. Their 25 turnovers created this season is tied for most in the NFL.

Sunday's match-up will be a great barometer to see how good the Bucs really are, as if beating the Chiefs, Seahawks, Chargers and Saints in the last four weeks wasn't enough evidence. They're currently tied atop the NFC South with Atlanta and the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has the Falcons 5/13 favorites to win the division with the Bucs at 9/5 odds.

SUPER BOWL ODDS


Should Tampa Bay add a win over Dallas to its impressive resume, you have to start thinking Championship possibilities and they're currently 15/1 to win the NFC and 40/1 to win the Super Bowl. Dallas is 8/5 in the NFC and a 4/1 choice for the Super Bowl.

ROBERTS' RATING


I have the Cowboys rated as the top NFC team, but haven't adjusted them more than few percentage points in the past three weeks. I have them 3.5-points better than Tampa Bay on a neutral field and give AT&T Stadium a 2.5-point home edge which makes my true number on the game -- with no other considerations such as public popularity -- Dallas -6.


TRENDS


-- Tampa Bay is 4-0 ATS in last four road games.
-- Tampa Bay Under 3-0-1 in last four games.
-- Tampa Bay Under 8-3-1 last 12 road games against winning home teams.


-- Dallas is 3-8-1 ATS in last 12 games against winning teams.
-- Dallas is 0-4-1 ATS in last five December games.
-- Dallas Under in last six December games.


-- Tampa Bay and Dallas Under 4-1 in last five meetings.

NEXT WEEK


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted early week 16 spreads on Tuesday and the Bucs are getting +3 (-120) at New Orleans on Christmas Eve. Dallas is a seven-points home favorite against the Lions.

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 18


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


GB at CHI 01:00 PM


CHI +4.5


U 38.5


IND at MIN 01:00 PM


IND +5.0


O 45.0


CLE at BUF 01:00 PM


CLE +10.5


U 42.5 *****


PIT at CIN 01:00 PM


CIN +3.0


U 45.5 *****


JAC at HOU 01:00 PM


JAC +3.5


O 39.5


PHI at BAL 01:00 PM


PHI +4.5


U 41.0


TEN at KC 01:00 PM


KC -6.0 ***** ( FAVORITE OF THE DAY 0)


U 43.0 ***** ( TOTAL OF THE DAY )


DET at NYG 01:00 PM


NYG -4.0 *****


U 41.0 *****






NO at ARI 04:05 PM


NO +3.0 *****


O 48.5


SF at ATL 04:05 PM


SF +14.0


O 51.5


OAK at SD 04:25 PM


SD +2.5 ***** ( DOG OF THE DAY )


O 49.5


NE at DEN 04:25 PM


DEN +3.0 ***** ( DOG OF THE DAY # 2 )


U 43.0 *****


TB at DAL 08:30 PM


DAL -7.0 ***** ( SUNDAY NIGHT FAVORITE )


U 47.5 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Monday’s six-pack

Six most popular picks in Week 15 of the Westgate SuperContest:


6) Patriots (430) -3.5- W


5) Lions (433) +4- L


4) Ravens (456) -5.5- L


3) Raiders (501) -3- T


2) Buccaneers (593) +6.5- W


1) Steelers (603) -3- W

Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday


Giants 17, Lions 6— Seattle jumps Detroit into #2 seed in NFC after an inept offensive performance by Lions in their 3rd (and last) outdoor game of year. Giants are 8-1 in last nine games, now head on road to Philly/Washington to end season. Last eight Detroit games stayed under the total, as have last six Giant games.


Steelers 24, Bengals 20— Bengals led 20-6 wth 2:51 left in first half, but Steelers kicked FG’s on five consecutive drives, then finally scored TD and won/covered fifth game in row, with four of those wins on road- they’ve now won seven of last eight games with Cincinnati. Favorites are 8-1 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season.


Ravens 27, Eagles 26— Eagles scored TD with 0:04 left, went for two points and the win, a play I just disagree with, especially on road with a rookie QB who had just run for a TD. Tennessee did it, failed but wound up winning anyway. Philly has now lost nine of last ten games after a 3-0 start; they’re 1-7 on road. Ravens won its last five home games (4-1 vs spread).


Every TV announcer “loves the aggressive nature of going for two” in that spot. Without fail, they cover the coach’s butt by saying that, but I disagree. Let your entire team decide the game.


Packers 30, Bears 27— Green Bay blew a 27-10 4th quarter lead, but Rodgers hit Jordy Nelson with a 60-yard bomb to set up the GW field goal with 0:03 left. Packers have now won last seven games in Chicago, but Bears have to like what they see out of 3rd-string QB Barkley.


if Dallas wins Sunday night, Packers are tied with Tampa Bay for last Wild Card slot.


Colts 34, Vikings 6— Stunning no-show by Minnesota that basically ends their season; game was 27-nil at the half. I spent 50 Sunday afternoons watching Sam Bradford play for the Rams, so I’m not totally surprised by all this, and the Norv Turner resignation should’ve raised the red flag about as high as it can go, that there were big problems with this team.


Bills 33, Browns 13— Worst thing for the Browns is that they still have zero idea who their QB is as they move towards 2017. Cleveland is 2-12 vs spread; ’08 Lions went 0-16, but were 7-9 against spread. In its last four games, Cleveland was outscored 65-9 in first half. Buffalo is 7-1 if they allow 21 or less points, 0-6 if they allow more. Over is 11-2 in Buffalo’s last 13 games.


Titans 19, Chiefs 17— Chiefs led 14-0 after 10:31 of play but lost. Kansas City had the ball with 3:12 left up 17-16 and Tennessee had no timeouts left (other than 2:00 warning), but Chiefs couldn’t get a first down and lost 19-17 at home for the second time in five weeks (Bucs were other loss). Tennessee has now won four of last five games; they went for two-point conversion and the lead with 3:12 left, down 17-16 and won despite not getting it.


Texans 21, Jaguars 20— Houston benched Brock Osweiler after his second INT; he has $37M in guaranteed money coming his way. Bill O’Brien coached this game like he was getting fired if Houston misses the playoffs— Tom Savage may have saved O’Brien’s butt by leading this comeback that makes the Texans 6-1 at home this season. Jaguars lost their ninth game in a row; they fired coach Gus Bradley after the game- at least he’ll get to spend Christmas with his family.


Saints 48, Cardinals 41— 20 possessions in this game; 11 TD’s, three FG’s tried, not a lot of defense played. Cardinals have now allowed 30.9 pts/game their last seven games, giving up 22 TD’s on opponents’ last 72 drives. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 10-2 vs spread this season. Except for Seattle, NFC West has been a dumpster fire in 2016.


Falcons 41, 49ers 13— First three times they had the ball, Atlanta ran 22 plays for 157 yards and a quick 21-nil lead— Falcons coasted the rest of the way, running ball for 248 yards, throwing for 302. 49ers haven’t won since Week 1; they allowed 12.6 yards/pass attempt in this game. In their last three games, Niners have been outscored 52-0 in second half. I’m going to spend Christmas Eve in a sportsbook watching Rams-49ers; Feliz Navidad. Over is 12-2 in Falcon games this season.


Patriots 16, Broncos 3— In their last three games, Denver has two offensive TDs on 35 drives; we’re going to find out this winter how patient John Elway is. Will he go after Tony Romo and try to jumpstart his offense for 2017? Patriots won for just second time in last eight visits here. Under is 8-3 in last 11 Denver games, 4-1 in last five Patriot games.


Raiders 19, Chargers 16— Two years ago, Oakland went 3-13 with rookie Derek Carr at QB; things have improved for him. Oakland is 6-1 in true road games this year; they’re 8-1 in games decided by 7 or less points, thanks in large part to a +15 turnover ratio. San Diego is 1-7 in games decided by 7 or less points; their TO ratio is -6. There is a very fine line between winning and losing in the NFL.


Cowboys 26, Buccaneers 20— Prescott went 32-36/280 in this highly entertaining game; putting to rest any potential QB controversy. Jameis Winston is going to be really good; this was his first game in the brightest of NFL spotlights. Bucs’ 5-game win streak is snapped. Packer fans were rooting like hell for Dallas, Giant fans were rooting for Tampa Bay

 

[CNOTES]

MNF - Panthers at Redskins
December 18, 2016


The Week 15 card wraps up on Monday night from Washington as the Redskins look to stay alive in the NFC playoff race against the Panthers. Last season, Carolina lost its first game in Week 16 following a 14-0 start, but went through the expected letdown this season after a Super Bowl appearance by limping to a 5-8 record. The Panthers can put a dent in Washington’s postseason hopes with a road victory at FedEx Field.


LAST WEEK


Carolina (5-8 SU, 4-8-1 ATS) rebounded from a 40-7 drubbing at Seattle in Week 13 to beat San Diego last Sunday, 28-16 to cash as one-point home favorites. After allowing a total of 75 points in the previous two losses, the Panthers’ defense stepped up by causing five turnovers, including three interceptions of Chargers’ quarterback Philip Rivers. Kicker Graham Gano connected on four field goals for Carolina, while the Panthers overcame just 10 completions from Cam Newton to improve to 4-3 at Bank of America Stadium.


Washington (7-5-1 SU, 9-4 ATS) finished off a string of three consecutive road games by rallying past Philadelphia, 27-22 to cover as two-point favorites. The Redskins lost the previous two weeks at Dallas and Arizona, but pulled off the season sweep of the Eagles thanks to a pair of touchdown passes by Kirk Cousins and the go-ahead touchdown run scored by Chris Thompson after the two-minute warning. DeSean Jackson burned his former team by hauling in three catches for 102 yards and a touchdown, his highest yardage mark in a victory this season.

SERIES HISTORY


The Panthers have won four consecutive matchups with the Redskins since 2009, including three victories at Bank of America Stadium. Last season, Carolina blasted Washington, 44-16 to easily cover as seven-point favorites. The Redskins hung around after one quarter, tying the Panthers at 14-14 with a 99-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. However, Carolina exploded for 17 points in the second quarter and only allowed a fourth quarter safety in the final 45 minutes. Newton diced up the Redskins’ defense for five touchdown passes to five different receivers, as last season’s MVP owns a perfect 3-0 record against Washington in his career.


LINE MOVEMENT


The Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened the Redskins as four-point favorites with a total of 51, but Washington has jumped to seven-point chalk. The total is still a solid 51 across the board as game-time temperatures are expected to be in the low 30’s.

ROAD WOES


Carolina has slumped to a 1-5 mark on the highway this season following a 7-1 road record last season. The Panthers dropped three of those games by three points or less at Denver, Oakland, and New Orleans, while allowing at least 35 points in four of six road contests, as Carolina is 5-1 to the OVER away from Bank of America Stadium. Carolina is listed as an underdog for the third time this season, going 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS with the lone cover coming at Oakland as 3 ½-point ‘dogs in a 35-32 setback.

MONDAY NIGHT MISERY


Since 2013, the Redskins have struggled on Monday Night Football by posting a 1-5 SU/ATS record, including an 0-5 SU/ATS mark at FedEx Field. In this season’s opener against Pittsburgh, the Redskins were steamrolled by the Steelers, 38-16 on Monday night as 2 ½-point underdogs. The last time Washington won a Monday night home game came in 2012 against the Giants, as the Redskins own a dreadful 2-15 record on Mondays at FedEx Field since the stadium opened in 1997.


HOME COOKING

The Redskins will look to break their Monday night jinx as home teams on Monday night have fared well over the last two months by going 7-2 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine weeks. Following a five-week UNDER run, the OVER has hit in four of the past six Monday night games.


PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook


Carolina


C. Newton – Total Completions
19 – OVER (-110)
19 – UNDER (-110)


C. Newton – Total Touchdown Passes + Interceptions
2 – OVER (-110)
2 – UNDER (-110)


J. Stewart – Total Rushing Yards
69 ½ - OVER (-110)
69 ½ - UNDER (-110)

Washington


K. Cousins – Total Gross Passing Yards
283 ½ - OVER (-110)
283 ½ - UNDER (-110)


K. Cousins – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (-170)
1 ½ - UNDER (+150)


R. Kelly – Total Rushing Yards
66 ½ - OVER (-110)
66 ½ - UNDER (-110)

NEXT WEEK


The Redskins opened as a 3 ½-point road favorite at Chicago in Week 16 at the Westgate Superbook, their fourth away contest in the past five weeks. Carolina is listed as a 2 ½-point home underdog against Atlanta next Sunday according to the Westgate, one year after the Falcons upset the Panthers as a home ‘dog.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL THURS- MONDAY RECORD AND BEST BETS:


12/01/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
12/04/2016 15-10-1 60.00% +2000
12/05/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/08/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
12/11/2016 17-10-0 62.96% +3000
12/12/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/15/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
12/18/2016 14-12-0 53.85% +400


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 121-137-8 46.90% -14850


O/U Picks 124-135-6 47.88% -12250


Triple Plays:..... 69 - 70 - 4


BIG PLAYS FOR OCT/NOV 5 - 8 - 1
BIG PLAYS FOR DEC. 7 - 6


12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 1 KANSAS CITY + 4' 29/ N. ORLEANS 28
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL SNOW FAVORITE OF THE DAY G. BAY - 6 21 / HOUSTON 13
12/04- 1 - 0 NFL TOTAL OF THE DAY. UN 44 SAN FRAN/ CHICAGO 26 - 6
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 2 BUFFALO + 3 24 / OAKLAND 38
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 3 TAMPA + 3' 28 / SAN DIEGO 21
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 4 WASHINGTON + 2' 23 / ARIZONA 31
12/08- 1 - 0 NFL THUR. NIGHT GOY K.C. - 3 / OAKLAND 21 - 13
12/08 - 1 - 0 NFL THUR. NIGHT TOTAL OF THE NIGHT KC / OAKLAND UN 46 21 - 13[/B

 

[CNOTES]

MONDAY, DECEMBER 19


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


CAR at WAS 08:30 PM


WAS -6.5 *****


U 50.5 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Panthers turn back clock in 26-15 rout of Redskins
December 20, 2016


LANDOVER, Md. (AP) Cam Newton threw for 300 yards, Carolina's running game was overwhelmingly effective and an aggressive defense forced three turnovers.


It was just like last year for the Panthers. Unfortunately for Carolina, there almost certainly will be no Super Bowl at the end of the season for the defending NFC champions.


Though the Panthers did just about everything right Monday night in a 26-15 win over the Washington Redskins, it's been a rough encore for a team that went 15-1 before breezing into the Super Bowl.


Carolina (6-8) has battled through injuries, free-agent defections and inexperience at key positions. On Monday night, the Panthers showed just how good they can be when performing to their potential.


''For us, our challenge all year has been playing a complete game,'' Newton said.


Battered, bruised and weary from a season's worth of hard hits, the agile quarterback showed his frustration when he tossed the ball at Washington's Trent Murphy on a play in the second quarter. Newton was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct after Murphy roughed him up a bit as he was sliding to the ground.


''I've got to be better than that,'' Newton said.


When it came to flinging the ball at his receivers, Newton was better than usual. He went 21 for 37 with two touchdowns and didn't turn the ball over.


He was backed by a solid running game led by Jonathan Stewart, who amassed a season-high 132 yards on 25 carries.


Throw in a defense that allowed only one touchdown, and you've got the 2015 Panthers.


''They loaded the box up, backers were shooting the gap,'' Redskins tackle Trent Williams said. ''That's the same front seven they went to the Super Bowl with. That's a good group of guys.''


The Panthers on Monday night looked nothing like the group that started 1-5 and got beat by such scores as 22-10 and 40-7.


''We had a bit of continuity,'' coach Ron Rivera said. ''We've got an offensive line that's played together for what, four weeks now? We've got a group of young corners that have played together for five weeks now. We ran the ball very effectively today.''


Carolina has only a mathematical chance of getting back to the playoffs, but that's not what drives the Panthers as the season draws to end.


Asked what the team is playing for, Newton replied with one word: ''Wins.''


''We're playing for a ton of pride and the guy next to us,'' defensive end Wes Horton said. ''Even if we didn't have a playoff scenario, we're still going to fight to the end. Our objective is to go undefeated the rest of the season.''


Rivera insisted upon it.


''Coach challenged us as man, as players, as professionals, to come out and do our job,'' Newton said. ''That's what we tried to do today, and we did it.''


Newton arrived fashionably late for his postgame session wearing a pink hat, checkered suit, blue tie and sneakers - even though Rivera told the team they could travel home in sweat suits.


Newton said his attire was a tribute to Craig Sager, an NBA analyst who died recently of cancer.

 

[CNOTES]

Opening Line Report - Week 16
December 19, 2016

By this point of the NFL season, many teams’ chances of making the playoffs are nil, and bookmakers and bettors have to wrestle with the question of how motivated such squads will be in their last few games.


The answer is surely not one-size-fits-all. Teams that are used to playing meaningful games late in the season but recently saw this year’s playoff hopes vanish – the Cardinals and Bengals, for example – probably approach late-season games differently than a team like the Bears that has been out of contention for some time.


“If you’re a team that hasn’t been in the playoffs before, you’re working on (getting better). They may come and play a little harder,” John Avello, executive director of race and sports at the Wynn, said Sunday night. “Teams that have made the playoffs before and had high expectations that are not playing well, that are out of it, maybe you’ll get a little lesser performance out of them.”


Bettors, though, are kidding themselves if they think they can read teams’ minds and guess with any accuracy how hard they will play in “meaningless” games.


“For the one time you get it right, you’re probably wrong five other times,” said Ed Salmons, manager at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. “It’s like flipping coins. You just don’t know.”


Still, Avello says he adjusts his numbers if a team has been eliminated from the playoff race.


“The reason those teams aren’t making the playoffs is they’re playing poorly, so it’s an adjustment of the power rating to go along with the team not needing the game,” Avello said. “It’s a combination of the two.”


Several of these teams face opponents in Week 16 that still have plenty to play for, and even though handicappers are not mind readers, this has to be a factor when analyzing games.


Here are all the opening point spreads for the penultimate week of the NFL regular season, which features most of the games on Christmas Eve (Saturday) but a pair of doozies on Christmas Day. Numbers listed are the Las Vegas consensus as of Sunday night at 11 p.m. ET, with early line moves and differences among Vegas books also noted.


Thursday, Dec. 22


New York Giants (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles


Philadelphia is out of the playoff race, and the Giants are in the thick of it. But before you rush to the window to lay these points next week, know that the last time the Giants were favored in Philly was in 2009 (they lost 40-17 as 2-point chalk).


Saturday, Dec. 24


Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.5)


While not much can be gleaned from beating the Browns, Rex Ryan’s men played hard for him in Sunday’s 33-13 win. Spoiling their division rival’s season may provide the motivation they need to win at home again next week.


Tampa Bay Bucs at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)


The Bucs shut down the Saints’ offense when these teams met in Tampa Bay two weeks ago, and the 16-11 final score didn’t come close to getting the game ‘over’ the lofty total of 52. A different story figures to unfold in the Superdome.


Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers


The Panthers were 3-point favorites when they visited Atlanta in Week 4 (the Falcons won 48-33 as Julio Jones lit up Carolina for 300 receiving yards), an indication of the massive power rating adjustments these teams have seen as the season has progressed.


Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-7 even)


While the Packers have hit their stride with four straight wins and the Vikings continue to flounder, this number looks expensive to Salmons, whose shop opened Green Bay -6.5.


“I don’t care how bad Minnesota played (in Sunday’s 34-6 home loss to the Colts), that game ain’t 7,” Salmons said. “Green Bay is still the piece of garbage team we’ve seen all year. The Bears really should have won that game (the Packers won at Chicago, 30-27). For whatever reason, they got close to the goal line and they choked.”


New York Jets at New England Patriots (-16.5)


If this line holds, it will be the largest so far of the NFL season. New England opened a point lower at the Wynn, at -15.5. Either way, laying this number is a bit daunting, even with the gap in quality between these AFC East foes. The Pats almost always beat the Jets (they’ve won nine of the last 11 meetings), but they don’t cover a lot of spreads against them (1-7-1 ATS over the last nine).


Tennessee Titans (-4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars


Tennessee opened -3.5 at the Wynn, but that number was bet up to -4.5, where most books opened the game, within about 90 minutes of wagering. CG Technology opened Tennessee -4 and stood pat through early betting.

San Diego Chargers (-6.5) at Cleveland Browns


William Hill and Stratosphere opened San Diego -6.5 before early moves to -6.


The Browns are winless and have covered the spread only twice this season, but desperate teams can be dangerous.

Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders (-4)


The Westgate opened this game 4.5 but a bet on the dog prompted a move to 4.


Said Salmons, “It’s to the point now where I feel like if I don’t get dog money (on Sundays), I’m probably not going to get too much during the week. You get some wiseguys that bet dogs at the end (of the week), but you just get so overridden with all this chalk money, it’s just crazy.”


San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3)


Next.


Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-8.5)


The Wynn was dealing Seattle -8 on Sunday night, while the Westgate had -9. William Hill opened -9 and moved to -8.5.


Despite Arizona’s being officially bounced from playoff contention via Sunday’s home loss to New Orleans, Salmons expects Bruce Arians’ men to show up against their division rival.


Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-2)


There was an even mix of 2s and 2.5s for this AFC battle between a perennial playoff team that is no longer alive this season and another that is very much alive amid a brewing quarterback controversy.

Washington Redskins (-3.5) at Chicago Bears


Sunday’s narrow loss as 5-point home underdogs to Green Bay marked the Bears’ fifth straight cover, and Salmons continues to be impressed with their effort under John Fox.


“The Bears play hard every week,” he said.


Sunday, Dec. 25


Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5)


Pittsburgh opened -6 at multiple books, all of which moved the line in Baltimore’s direction to 5 or 5.5 during Sunday night action. Coasts Resorts offered favorite players Pitt -4.5.


The Steelers were 3-point favorites when these teams met in Baltimore in Week 9 and lost outright, 21-14. But the Ravens have been dreadful on the road this season, losing four in a row away from Baltimore and counting wins at the Jaguars and at the Browns as their only two road wins of the season.


Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)


Like the one above, this game also saw an early move toward the underdog, as the line was bet down from 6 to 5.5 and from 5.5 to 5 at various shops. The numbers mark a significant swing from the Broncos -3.5 when these teams played three weeks ago in Denver.


“Denver is just so inept right now,” Salmons said. “Even when they’re open they drop the ball, (and) they can’t stop the run anymore.”


Said Avello, “Denver right now might not be in a good state of mind. Things are going south for them quickly, and this is a tough spot” with the Chiefs playing at home off a loss.


But, he added, “Kansas City offensively isn’t exactly lighting it up, so this game might be closer than you think.”


Monday, Dec. 26


Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)


A touchdown plus the hook was the original number at the Westgate and CG Tech for this huge NFC clash. Dallas clinches the NFC East and the No. 1 seed in the conference with a win, while Detroit is just a game ahead of Green Bay for the lead in the North.