Cnotes 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[CNOTES]

Monday’s six-pack


Six most popular picks in Week 14 of the Westgate SuperContest:


6) Green Bay Packers +2.5 (408)- W


5) Minnesota Vikings -3 (420)- W


4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (440)- W


3) Washington Redskins -1 (481)- W


2) Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 (558)- W


1) Baltimore Ravens +7 (577)


Strong week for popular opinion


Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…..


Titans 13, Broncos 10— Tennessee has to be excited; they’re 7-6, tied for first in AFC South and they have the Rams’ #1 draft pick next year, so they’ll clean up next April and get even better. This was an ugly game; Titans scored 10 points on first two possessions, then held on for the win despite gaining only 178 yards the rest of the game. Mariota was 6-20/88 passing, but his team won. Five of last six Denver games stayed under the total.


Panthers 28, Chargers 16— San Diego turned ball over five times (-4). I have a question: Why can’t the Chargers just stay in San Diego and play in Qualcomm? Why is it better for them to move to LA and be a second rate tenant in a new ballpark? Who will go to their games there? At least in San Diego they have a whole city behind them, buying their gear, Maybe I’m an idiot, but seems to me every NFL team doesn’t need a brand-new stadium.


Texans 22, Colts 17— Houston is tied for first with Titans in AFC South; they ran ball for 185 yards, had 3 takeaways (+2), kicked five FGs- usually when a team scores one TD and kicks five FGs, they lose. Colts are 1-4-1 vs spread this year in game following a win; some teams cannot stand prosperity. This is only second time Texans have won in Indy (2-13). Under is 5-2 in last seven Houston games, 4-0 in Colts’ last four home games.


Bengals 23, Browns 10— I’m still amazed that an NFL franchise is worth roughly $1B, give or take, and the Browns are being run by Jonah Hill’s character from Moneyball. Seriously, why would you have a guy who spent most of the last 15 years as a baseball executive run your NFL team? It makes zero bleeping sense. Cleveland is 1-5-1 vs spread as a home underdog, losing home games by 5-20-3-25-15-14-13 points


Steelers 27, Bills 20— Pittsburgh ran ball for 240 yards in the snow, amidst rumors that Rex Ryan is going to get fired. If Ryan and Jeff Fisher both get fired, then maybe their teams can hire coaches who actually care about offense and the league will put out a better product. Pittsburgh has now won/covered its last four games.


Non-football observation: if you’re going to be outside in a snowstorm for 3.5 hours, put on a goddamn coat. Rex Ryan wore same clothes for this game he wore in the LA Coliseum when the Bills played there. Even his brother wore a parka.


Dolphins 26, Cardinals 23— Game was played in a monsoon; Arizona’s kicker had an awful day, but did make a 56-yard FG. Miami kicked FG on last play to win, but they lost QB Tannehill to an ACL injury, so looks like Matt Moore gets to run the ball club the rest of the way- their #3 QB is former Western Kentucky QB Doughty. Arizona needs to draft a QB next spring; Carson Palmer is getting up there in years.


NFC West went 0-4 Sunday, turning ball over 15 times and 49ers didn’t have any turnovers.


Lions 20, Bears 17— Detroit is now 9-4 despite trailing in 4th quarter in 12 of 13 games. You know it might be the Lions’ year when Stafford throws a pick-6 to give Chicago a 17-13 lead with 7:07 left, but Detroit drives back down field to score game-winning TD with 3:17 left. Lions are 6-1 at home with four wins by exactly three points.


Pretty sure I’m going to be in Las Vegas when the NFL schedule comes out for 2017; first thing I’m going to do is bet the under on the Lions’ win total for next year.


Vikings 25, Jaguars 16— Minnesota ran ball 29 times for 85 yards (28 for 70 if you take out one Bradford scramble for 15 yards); they scored only 16 points on five red zone drives, but won anyway. Jaguars are 0-6 at home, have lost eight games in a row (2-6 vs spread). Vikings had been 2-6 this season when they didn’t score a TD on defense/special teams, now they’re 3-6.


Mike Zimmer coached this game with his right eye totally covered by tape; he is one tough human. He wore sunglasses when Minnesota had the ball, but took them off so he could read his defensive call charts when Jaguars had the ball. Lot of admiration for coach Zimmer.


Bucs 16, Saints 11— Sean Payton was yukking it up two weeks ago when he ran the score up on the sorry Rams, but since then his team scored a total of 24 points in losses to Detroit, Tampa Bay. New Orleans is 5-8 and going nowhere with an aging QB; they’re 0-6 when they score less than 25 points. Under is 5-2 in Saints’ last seven games, 2-0-1 in Bucs’ last three.


Tampa Bay has won five games in a row and is looking smart for drafting Jameis Winston.


Redskins 27, Eagles 22— Washington won last five meetings with Philly, with average total in last six series games, 53.8; Eagles scored one offensive TD on 17 drives in two games with Redskins this year. Over is 11-2 in Washington games this season.


Jets 23, 49ers 17 OT— Niners snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, blowing a 17-3 halftime lead, losing their 12th straight game. Bryce Petty gets his first NFL win. Weird that SF was favored in its last two games, despite being an awful team.


I’m wondering if the networks stopped showing Colin Kaepernick kneeling during the National Anthem because he said he didn’t vote on Election Day. Just curious, thats all.


Packers 38, Seahawks 10— Seattle has now lost their last seven visits here; they’re 1-4-1 this season when scoring less than 26 points. Somehow, Green Bay’s defense has revived itself, allowing 36 points in last three games, after allowing 153 points in the four games before that- they had six takeaways in this game. Seattle is 2-4-1 on the road and they’ve fallen out of the #2 slot in the NFC, so they might be going on the road in the second week of the playoffs.


Falcons 42, Rams 14— Observations from this game and with apologies to the Falcons, I’ve got nothing to say about them— picked them last week and they lost.


— Rams should fire their head coach today, just to save everyone three more weeks of aggravation.


— Last three weeks: L21-49, L10-26, L14-42. Unacceptable results. Sometimes divorce is a good thing— just ask my ex-wife (its a joke!!!)


— The next coach should a) be an offensive guru or b) hire an offensive guru to be OC and yes, I’m thinking of Norv Turner, if we go the OC way.


— Find the best offensive line coach in America and pay him a boatload of cash to come to LA.


— They can keep Gregg Williams and John Fassel; defense/special teams ain’t the problem.


— Here are some W-L records of how QBs did their rookie year: Elway 4-6, PManning 3-13, EManning 1-6, Aikman 0-11, Stafford 2-8, Marino 7-2. Playing QB in the NFL is a hard job.


— I pay more money than I should for DirecTV, for one reason; to watch NFL games on Sundays, specifically the Rams. 13 consecutive non-winning seasons is getting my money’s worth.


Giants 10, Cowboys 7— Dak Prescott grew up in Louisiana; wonder if he ever played in a frigid night game before? Dallas is 11-2 with two losses to the Giants by total of four points. If playoffs started tomorrow, NFC Wild Card game would be Bucs @ Giants. AFC would be either Miami/Denver @ Oakland. Last five Giant games stayed under the total.

 

[CNOTES]

MNF - Ravens at Patriots
December 11, 2016


Two old playoff rivals meet up on Monday night in Foxboro to close out Week 14 of the NFL. The Patriots host the Ravens at Gillette Stadium as both these teams are looking at January football. New England is on pace to grab home-field advantage in the AFC, while Baltimore is in a tug-of-war atop the AFC North with Pittsburgh coming down the stretch.


LAST WEEK


New England (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) extended its winning streak to three games after beating Los Angeles, 26-10 as 13-point favorites. The Patriots scored two early touchdowns then relied on the right leg of Stephen Gostkowski to connect on four field goals. Tom Brady threw only one touchdown pass, while compiling less than 300 yards passing for the third straight game (269 yards). The Patriots held their third straight opponent to below 17 points, resulting in a third consecutive UNDER.


Baltimore (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) improved to 4-1 the last five games after blasting Miami, 38-6 as 3 ½-point favorites. Ravens’ quarterback Joe Flacco diced up the Dolphins’ defense for 381 yards and four touchdowns, while Baltimore intercepted Miami three times in its fourth consecutive victory at M&T Bank Stadium. During this 4-1 run, Baltimore’s defense has stepped up by allowing 14 points or less in each of the past four wins, as the Ravens are 4-1 to the UNDER in this stretch.


SERIES HISTORY


These teams last met in the 2014 divisional playoffs in Foxboro as the Patriots held off the Ravens, 35-31. Baltimore cashed as seven-point road underdogs, but squandered a pair of 14-point leads, including a 28-14 third quarter advantage. Brady connected with Brandon LaFell on a 28-yard touchdown strike with 5:13 remaining in the fourth quarter to give New England its only lead of the game, but that was good enough to reach the AFC Championship and eventually the Super Bowl.


The Ravens have won four of the last seven matchups with the Patriots since the 2009 Wild Card game in which Baltimore blew out New England, 33-14. Baltimore owns a 4-0-1 ATS record in its last five trips to New England, while four of the past six meetings overall have been decided by four points or less.


LINE MOVEMENT

The Patriots opened as seven-point favorites (-120) last Tuesday at the Las Vegas Westgate Superbook, but that number has dropped to 6 ½ at most books. The total currently sits at 45 as temperatures are expected to be in the mid-30’s with clear conditions in Foxboro on Monday.


ROAD WOES


Since starting the season with road victories at Cleveland and Jacksonville, the Ravens have failed to win on the highway in their last three tries. Two of those losses came in back-to-back weeks at Met Life Stadium against the Giants and Jets in October, while the latest road setback came at Dallas in Week 11 by 10 points, 27-17. Flacco has thrown only two touchdowns and has been picked off six times in five road games this season, as Baltimore owns a 1-4 ATS mark away from M&T Bank Stadium.

PRIMETIME PATRIOTS


New England has won four of its past six Monday night contests since the start of 2012, while making its first Monday night appearance this season. In the last three Monday night home games in this span, the Patriots have won by scores of 34-3, 42-14, and 20-13, with that seven-point victory coming over the Bills last season.


HANDICAPPER’S CORNER


VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says Baltimore has held its own over the years against New England, “Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens have played the Patriots about as well as anyone with a 3-5 (4-3-1 ATS) mark though more importantly winning two of four playoff meetings (4-0 ATS). Baltimore has a home game with Philadelphia up next before division road games in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to close the season as the Ravens are a strong candidate to fall out of the AFC playoff picture completely with the Wild Card path less likely.”


Meanwhile, the Patriots have taken advantage of weak competition according to Nelson, “Since the home loss to Seattle in mid-November, the Patriots have won three in a row but they faced three losing teams and didn’t win all that convincingly facing the 49ers, Jets, and Rams scoring just 26 points per game. Losing Rob Gronkowski changes the offense and the numbers paint a clear decline for the offense the past few seasons in the games their star tight end has missed.”


PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook


Baltimore


J. Flacco – Total Gross Passing Yards
257 ½ - OVER (-110)
257 ½ - UNDER (-110)


J. Flacco – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (+110)
1 ½ - UNDER (-130)


M. Wallace – Total Receiving Yards
54 ½ - OVER (-110)
54 ½ - UNDER (-110)


New England


T. Brady – Total Completions
25 ½ - OVER (-110)
25 ½ - UNDER (-110)


T. Brady – Total Touchdown Passes
2 – OVER (-120)
2 – UNDER (Even)


L. Blount – Total Rushing Yards
64 ½ - OVER (-110)
64 ½ - UNDER (-110)


NEXT WEEK


The Patriots travel to Denver for an AFC Championship rematch in Week 15 as the Westgate Superbook opened New England as three-point road favorites. The Ravens host the Eagles as Baltimore has yet to beat an NFC opponent this season. The Westgate opened Baltimore as 6 ½-point favorites.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL THURS- MONDAY RECORD AND BEST BETS:


12/01/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
12/04/2016 15-10-1 60.00% +2000
12/05/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/08/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
12/11/2016 17-10-0 62.96% +3000


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 114-129-8 46.91% -13950


O/U Picks 115-129-6 47.13% -13450


Triple Plays:..... 59 - 63 - 4


BIG PLAYS FOR OCT/NOV 5 - 8 - 1
BIG PLAYS FOR DEC. 6 - 2


12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 1 KANSAS CITY + 4' 29/ N. ORLEANS 28
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL SNOW FAVORITE OF THE DAY G. BAY - 6 21 / HOUSTON 13
12/04- 1 - 0 NFL TOTAL OF THE DAY. UN 44 SAN FRAN/ CHICAGO 26 - 6
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 2 BUFFALO + 3 24 / OAKLAND 38
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 3 TAMPA + 3' 28 / SAN DIEGO 21
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 4 WASHINGTON + 2' 23 / ARIZONA 31
12/08- 1 - 0 NFL THUR. NIGHT GOY K.C. - 3 / OAKLAND 21 - 13
12/08 - 1 - 0 NFL THUR. NIGHT TOTAL OF THE NIGHT KC / OAKLAND UN 46 21 - 13

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Monday, December 12

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Monday Night Football betting preview: Ravens at Patriots
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The Patriots own a deceptive 7-1 regular-season record in the series against the Ravens, who have been a major nemesis for New England and quarterback Tom Brady.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-6.5, 44.5)

The New England Patriots did not even have to take the field to seize control of their postseason destiny and they can solidify the front-running status when they host the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night. Oakland's loss to Kansas City on Thursday night put the Patriots one-half game up for the No. 1 seed in the AFC entering the final quarter of the season.

New England has won three in a row and can wrap up the AFC East title for an eight consecutive season -- which would be an NFL record -- with a win over Baltimore and a loss by Miami. The Patriots own a deceptive 7-1 regular-season record in the series against the Ravens, who have been a major nemesis for New England and quarterback Tom Brady. Four of the last six meetings (playoffs included) have been decided by four points or fewer and Baltimore owns a pair of postseason victories over the Patriots in Foxborough, Mass. The stakes are equally high for the Ravens, who are tied with Pittsburgh atop the AFC North but currently hold the tiebreaker over the Steelers.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Ravens (-1.5) - Patriots (-6) + home field (-3) = Patriots -7.5

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as 7.5-point home favorites and the public quickly jumped on Baltimore's historical success against Tom Brady and the Pats - puching the line down to -6.5 by Sunday. The total hit the board at 46 and came all of the way down to 44.5. View complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Gillette Stadium on Monday night is calling for foggy, damp conditions with temperatures in the mid-30's. There will also be a 9-10 mph wind blowing just to make the conditions even more unpleasant.

INJURIES:

Ravens - G M. Yanda (Questionable, shoulder), TE C. Gilmore (Questionable, thigh), RB L. Taliaferro (Questionable, thigh), RB J. Allen (Questionable, personal), CB T. Young (Questionable, shoulder), G A. Lewis (Early Jan, ankle), TE B. Watson (I-R, achilles), DT W. Henry (I-R, undisclosed), CB M. Canady (I-R, hamstring), S K. Lewis (I-R, thigh), CB S. Price (I-R, thigh), TE M. Williams (I-R, knee), WR C. Matthews (I-R, undisclosed), G D. Wesley (I-R, undisclosed), DT C. Davis (I-R, ankle), DE B. Kaufusi (I-R, ankle), T S. Nembot (I-R, undisclosed), CB K. Arrington (I-R, concussion), LB C. Luckett (I-R, undisclosed), CB J. Rolle (I-R, achilles), WR K. Clay (I-R, foot).

Patriots - TE M. Bennett (Probable, ankle), QB T. Brady (Probable, knee), LB E. Roberts (Questionable, hamstring), DL W. Hamilton (Questionable, leg), WR M. Slater (Questionable, foot), DB J. Richards (Questionable, knee), DB E. Rowe (Questionable, hamstring), WR D. Amendola (Out, ankle), G T. Jackson (Questionable, knee), QB J. Brissett (Questionable, thumb), TE R. Gronkowski (I-R, back), T S. Vollmer (I-R, knee), LB J. Freeny (I-R, shoulder), TE G. Scruggs (knee).

ABOUT THE RAVENS (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 4-7-1 O/U): Baltimore improved to 4-1 in its last five games following its most impressive victory of the season, a 38-6 demolition of Miami last week that snapped the Dolphins' six-game winning streak. Muddling through a season of mediocrity to that point, quarterback Joe Flacco established season highs with 381 yards passing and four touchdowns while setting a franchise record with 36 completions. Tight end Dennis Pitta had nine catches for 90 yards and two touchdowns, part of a unit that features veteran Steve Smith, speedster Mike Wallace and promising Breshad Perriman at wide receiver. The Ravens have the league's top-ranked defense (296.1 yards per game) and rank No. 1 against the run (73.8 yards).

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS, 4-8 O/U): New England has won three in a row, although the combined record of those opponents entering Week 13 is 8-28. Brady has 19 touchdown passes versus only one interception since returning from his four-game suspension, but he is without his No. 1 receiving target in tight end Rob Gronkowski and has 12 scoring passes versus 11 picks in 10 career games (playoffs included) versus Baltimore. Rookie Malcolm Mitchell continues to emerge as a bigger threat in the passing game with a season-high eight receptions in last week's 26-10 win over Los Angeles while LeGarrette Blount is 43 yards shy of his second 1,000-yard season. The Patriots' defense is tied with Baltimore with 17.3 points allowed -- second in the NFL.

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
* Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
* Under is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Road team is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 52 percent of the picking public is grabbing the road underdog Ravens and 58 percent are taking the Over.

 

[CNOTES]

Books capture Week 14 win
December 12, 2016


The Las Vegas sport books all had mixed results in Week 14 NFL action Sunday, but the thing every book was united with was they needed the New York Giants to cover Sunday night against the Dallas Cowboys to call the day a win, break even or lessen the losses.


"We're up a little on the day, but the late game risk will give a lot back," said MGM Resorts race and sports VP Jay Rood prior to kickoff.


"If we lose with the Dallas game, we'll make a ham sandwich on the day."


Rood brought in a classic old school bookmaking term 'ham sandwich' reference regarding a small win for the day most often used famously by Jerry "Shoes" Zimny, which means the book will basically make enough cash on to buy a ham sandwich.


Chris Andrews took it one step lower with an old school term by saying his South Point sports book "will make a peanut" with a Giants cover. One peanut, wow! Now that's a small win.


John Avello at the Wynn Las Vegas book said "We can probably eek out a win (with the Giants) or get buried (with Dallas covering)."


After sweating out each and every score of the first 13 Sunday games, a span of six-and-a-half hours, once again all that stress of trying to break a lengthy losing streak was for naught and came down to another late game to deciding the fate of their day.


The entire city got their wish with the Giants covering (+4) and the total staying 'under' (46.5) in a 10-7 outright win, but most book bosses were feeling greedy hoping for the ultimate decision with Dallas winning by 1-to-3 points to knock out the Giants money-line payouts of +170.


"We were kind of hoping for our best scenario, like we're usually in with the Super Bowl where we want the favorite to win, but not cover," said Westgate SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay.


It was a small window of opportunity for the books that didn't happen, but what they get was the Cowboys to finally lose after 11 straight wins following a Week 1 loss to the same Giants. It was the third straight game the Cowboys accelerated rating did not cover the spread after covering nine straight.


The result now gives bettors something extra to think about in the final three weeks of the regular season rather than simply taking Dallas on almost every parlay played in the city. Sharps have been cashing the last three weeks by betting against the Cowboys inflated numbers, but just like the books they're having trouble cashing on a few other teams.


The winless Browns failed to cover again for the seventh straight week in a 23-10 home loss to the Bengals. The books opened high with Cincinnati -6 and sharps took the 2.5-points of perceived value, again, and pushed the number all the way down to -4.5 by kickoff. However, the public didn't care what the number was, they just wanted whoever was playing against the Browns and they were correct again.


Betting against bad teams has been the public's winning strategy weekly and the books keep inflating numbers against them, but not enough. However, one of the bad teams showed up in Week 14 to help avoid a total disaster.


The Chicago Bears (+7) got a cover at Detroit in a 20-17 loss -- helping the books, but they got no help elsewhere.


The San Francisco 49ers once again looked awful in a 23-17 overtime loss to the New York Jets, after jumping out to a 14-0 first-quarter lead. With Bryce Petty starting at QB for the Jets, 49ers money came strong from the sharps pushing them from -1 to -3.


The team that is beginning to fall to low rating depths similar the the Browns is Los Angeles with Jared Goff starting at QB. Sharp money bet the Rams +7 all the way down to +4.5, but the Atlanta Falcons struck quick and often in 42-14 win sending the Rams to their fourth consecutive loss and non-cover. The Falcons were the most one-sided bet game at William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada with 89 percent of the tickets written.


Overall, favorites went 8-6 against the spread on the day with five underdogs winning outright and the 'under' went 9-5, and surprisingly, two of the cold weather games at Pittsburgh and Green Bay managed to barely be two of the 'over' winners.


It's back to the drawing board for the books in an attempt to end one of the worst NFL stretches in Las Vegas history and right out of the gate they get to hold their breath with the Rams at Seattle on Thursday night where the high number in town is -14 at the Stratosphere, which offers about 3-point of value.


The Rams beat the Seahawks, 9-3, in Week 2, but the public will still lay whatever number is posted with Seattle.

 

[CNOTES]

MONDAY, DECEMBER 12


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


BAL at NE 08:30 PM


BAL +6.0 *****


U 45.0 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Patriots get big win, continue to inch toward playoffs
December 13, 2016


FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) By the time the Patriots took the field Monday night against the Ravens, they knew they'd have to wait at least another week to wrap up their eighth consecutive playoff berth.


It didn't stop New England from producing a postseason-quality effort.


The Patriots overcame a pair of miscues on special teams and provided some timely offense late to beat the Baltimore Ravens 30-23 on Monday night .


New England enters its final three regular season games in great position for an eighth straight AFC East crown.


''We just gotta keep it rolling,'' Patriots safety Devin McCourty said. ''That's whether you want to call it a playoff game, must-win, or any of that stuff. Once you get into December and toward the end of December, every game is important. There's really no rebounding and trying to fix things. You want to try and play your best ball every time you go out there and play.''


Of course, that kind of consistency is common practice for New England's 39-year-old quarterback.


Tom Brady carved up the NFL's top-ranked defense for 406 yards passing and three touchdowns, saving his best for last with a 79-yard strike to Chris Hogan in the fourth quarter.


He became just fourth NFL quarterback with at least 450 career touchdown passes.


''We weren't clicking early, but that happens in football,'' Brady said. ''I'm glad we found a way to make some plays. A lot of guys contributed. ... It was a big win for us.''


For the Ravens, it will be a short turnaround as they try to salvage their playoff hopes over the final three weeks. It begins with their final regular season home game against the Eagles on Sunday, followed by road tests at Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.


Baltimore is currently one game behind the Steelers in the AFC North.


''It doesn't really matter what our record is,'' quarterback Joe Flacco said. ''We've just got to win our games.''


FOCUSED ON PHILLY


Coach John Harbaugh said coming up short against the Patriots won't deter the Ravens from doing all they can to stay in the division hunt. That begins, he said, with putting all their focus into the matchup with Philadelphia.


''We know where we stand and the situation we are in. And that we basically have to win three games, you know, and (we are) certainly fully capable of doing that. That's what we intend to do, but all the focus goes to the next game,'' Harbaugh said.

BLOUNT FORCE


Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount picked up a pair of milestones in the game, topping 1,000 yards for the season and collecting his 14th touchdown. A 1-yard TD run in the first quarter gave the Patriots a 9-0 lead and tied the franchise record set by Curtis Martin in 1995 (and matched by Martin in '96).


Blount ended the game with 1,029 yards this season, topping the 1,007 from his rookie season with Tampa Bay in 2010. He's the first 1,000-yard rusher for the team since Stevan Ridley had 1,263 in 2012.


SAYONARA, CYRUS


Cyrus Jones continues to have problems returning kicks.


After dancing away from the football in the first half to avoid a fumble, he touched a bouncing punt with his foot in the second and allowed the Ravens to recover at the New England 3. Two plays later, the Ravens scored to make it 23-10.


It was the fifth fumble of the season for Jones, who sat out four times in six weeks as a healthy scratch because of his earlier struggles to hold onto the ball.


''We turned the ball over three times tonight. Three situations that I would say were pretty preventable,'' Belichick said. ''We'll work on it with everybody. It's everybody's job to protect the ball who handles it.''


SCORING DEFENSE


New England's defense was the first unit to get on the scoreboard Monday night. Patriots punter Ryan Allen pinned the Ravens at their own 1, and on the next play, Kenneth Dixon was swarmed in the end zone and brought down by Malcolm Butler for a safety.


It was the Patriots' third safety of the season - a franchise record. They also had one on Oct. 9 against Cleveland when Browns quarterback Cody Kessler fumbled the ball out of the end zone, and the following week when Dont'a Hightower sacked Andy Dalton in the end zone.

 

[CNOTES]

Rams fire coach Jeff Fisher after 42-14 loss to Falcons
December 12, 2016


LOS ANGELES (AP) Jeff Fisher's tenure in Los Angeles didn't last one full season.


The Rams fired Fisher on Monday and elevated special teams coordinator John Fassel to interim coach. The Rams are 4-9 heading into Thursday night's game at NFC West-leading Seattle.


Fisher had been the team's coach since 2012, and compiled a 31-45-1 record with the Rams. He oversaw the move from St. Louis to Los Angeles this past offseason.


The lack of success on the field, capped by a 42-14 home rout by Atlanta on Sunday, spelled the end for Fisher, who is tied with Dan Reeves for most regular-season losses in NFL history with 165. Fisher has the lowest winning percentage (.512) among coaches with 130-plus losses.


Los Angeles has scored a league-low 194 points this season.


''Making a decision such as this, especially during the season, is one of the most difficult in sports,'' Rams owner Stan Kroenke said.


''I have great respect for Jeff as a coach, person, father and friend. He has worked tirelessly despite some challenging circumstances. He played an integral role in helping this team make history in returning the NFL to Los Angeles, and we always will be grateful for his commitment and dedication to our organization.''


Fisher, 58, went 147-126 as coach of the Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans and helped that franchise in its relocation. He led the Titans to the 1999 AFC championship.


Long respected in league circles for his work on the NFL's competition committee, Fisher never found success - or a franchise quarterback - with the Rams, who went 7-8-1, 7-9, 6-10 and 7-9 in his four full seasons.


They traded up for the first selection in this year's draft and took California's Jared Goff, but he rode the bench for much of the season behind journeyman Case Keenum as Los Angeles jumped out to a 3-1 start. Fisher finally turned to Goff in Week 11 and the Rams have dropped all four of his starts.


''Some of the performances the past few weeks have been a little bit more lopsided,'' said Kevin Demoff, the Rams' executive vice president.


''I think that's what really tipped it. This is solely a performance-related issue. For the fans, for the players, for the coaches, for the organization we wanted to make sure games like (Sunday) didn't happen again.''


Kroenke said in his statement that ''this is the right time to make a change as our performance has not lived up to my or our fans' expectations. We all are focused on improving as an organization and building a team that makes Los Angeles proud. Our mission is to celebrate a Super Bowl title with our fans in Los Angeles. Today is the first step to bringing us closer to that goal.''


Oddly, Kroenke gave Fisher a contract extension before the season, though it was not made public until recently.


Now, that extension looks more like a bonus to Fisher for his role in aiding the organization's move to California than being any part of a plan for the team's future.


Demoff would not commit on general manager Les Snead keeping his position, either.


''Starting today we are going to have a complete review of the entire organization. We sat down with Les, and again this team is not where it needs to be,'' he said.


Fisher spoke to the team Monday before the firing was announced, and players reacted to his dismissal with a mix of guilt, frustration and anger.


''We didn't do enough for him,'' Goff said. ''Unfortunately, it falls on him, but us in the locker room blame ourselves and need to be better.''


The Rams barely had time to process the news before beginning preparations to play the Seahawks on a short week under Fassel.


Fassel, 42, joined the Rams after spending the past three years as special teams coordinator in Oakland. He also has worked for the Ravens.


He is the son of Jim Fassel, who coached the Giants to the 2000 NFC title.


Attendance has been something of an issue at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, which has a listed capacity of 93,607. Only in their home opener did they approach that number, and they drew 82,495 on Sunday.


That's still a high number, but their performance against Atlanta isn't likely to help sell more tickets for their remaining two home games.


But Demoff said the timing of Fisher's dismissal had nothing to do with appeasing the frustrated fan base.


''The best marketing is winning,'' Demoff said.

 

[CNOTES]

Opening Line Report - Week 15
December 12, 2016


Here are the opening point spreads for Week 15 of the 2016 NFL season, with insight from two Las Vegas oddsmakers – the South Point’s Chris Andrews and the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook’s Ed Salmons.


Numbers listed are the Vegas consensus as of about 11:30 p.m. ET on Sunday night. Early line moves and differences among sports books are also noted.


Thursday, Dec. 15


Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5)


Seattle -12.5, the first number posted in Las Vegas (Westgate), wasn’t big enough for bettors’ tastes, as it was pushed to -13.5 within the first hour of wagering. The betting market apparently is fading the Rams’ embarrassing showing Sunday, a 42-14 home loss to the Falcons, more than the Seahawks’ forgettable performance, a 38-10 loss at Green Bay.


Sunday was the first time since 2011, the year before Russell Wilson came into the league, that the Seahawks lost by more than 10 points. But they also lost at Tampa Bay two weeks ago by nine, 14-5.


“I don’t want to jump conclusions because they are really good, but they have had holes in their game all year,” Andrews said of Seattle. “Their offensive line is not that good, they haven’t run the ball consistently in a lot of games...At some point, you’ve got to quit ignoring those danger signs, because we’ve been looking for them all year, but they haven’t really come to fruition until these last couple of weeks.”


Salmons added, “Usually Pete Carroll’s team play great in December, so it’s really hard to justify (Sunday’s) performance. It was just awful, especially defensively. Earl Thomas (safety, out for the season) is probably their best defensive player, but Green Bay has been so bad all year, and they looked good today, and it was more Seattle than them.”


All that said, Seattle is 6-0 at home and lays the biggest number on the Week 15 card.


Saturday, Dec. 17


Miami Dolphins (-3 even) at New York Jets


Miami remains in the thick of the playoff race but will have to go the rest of the way without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who suffered a torn ACL in Sunday’s win over Arizona. Matt Moore, who’s been in the league nine seasons but hasn’t gotten a lot of reps over the past five years, takes over.


The dropoff from Tannehill to Moore is worth about 2 points to the betting line, Andrews estimated.


“I’m not the biggest Tannehill fan, but he is their quarterback and they’ve built everything around him the past couple years, so it’s gotta be worth at least a couple of points,” Andrews said.


Sunday, Dec. 18


Tampa Bay Bucs at Dallas Cowboys (-8.5)


CG posted Dallas -8 and the Westgate hung -8.5 before the Cowboys lost at the Giants on Sunday night. The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in three straight games, and bookmakers continue to make bettors lay big numbers to back them.


Meanwhile, both oddsmakers we spoke to are impressed with Tampa’s D, which held the Saints and Seahawks without a touchdown over the last three weeks.


Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-4.5)


Detroit has won five in row and eight of their last nine, but Salmons isn’t sold.


“I don’t know how they have the record they have,” Salmons said. “They really could have lost that game at home (to the Bears on Sunday). They’re an average team.”


The Lions, though, did have some takers for next week’s game at the Giants at the Westgate’s original number.


“We put that line up 5.5 and they bet us down to 4.5, which we knew they would,” Salmons said. “We just wanted to see how high we could go.”


Matthew Stafford’s status bears watching. He tore ligaments in the middle finger of his throwing hand Sunday and continued to play but with a glove on his hand.


Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens (-6)


CG Technology opened Baltimore -5.5 but soon joined the rest of the market at -6.


Green Bay Packers (-5) at Chicago Bears


Left for dead a few weeks ago, the Packers have won three straight games.


Green Bay was bet from -4.5 to -5 Sunday night at the Westgate for next week’s trip to Chicago. The Packers have owned the Bears in recent seasons, winning 13 of the last 16 meetings and covering the spread in 14 of the last 18.


Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-4)


The Westgate bounced between Minnesota -4 and -3.5 Sunday night for this inter-conference battle of mediocrity.


Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-10)


Cleveland has covered only two spreads all season but catches double digits against a Bills team that figures to be motivationally challenged next week.


Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)


The Westgate and William Hill opened Kansas City -6 but moved to -5.5 during Sunday night action. Both of those numbers were available in Las Vegas of this writing.


Andrews was impressed that the Titans beat Denver on Sunday despite an anemic offensive performance, but he doubts they’re ready to compete with the AFC’s best.


“If they can win without (Marcus Mariota) playing great football, that’s a pretty good plus for them,” Andrews said. “I’m not sure they can make a lot of noise in the playoffs, but they’re a good, young, coming team.”


Andrews, though, puts Kansas City near the top of the conference: “I really like Kansas City a lot. I’ve been talking about them since the beginning of the year. I think they’re a real Super Bowl contender.”


Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-5.5)


The Westgate opened Houston -5, William Hill went -6, and the two books met in the middle at -5.5.


New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)


William Hill opened Arizona -3 and moved to -2.5, while CG Technology went from 2.5 to -3 (-105) on Sunday night for this matchup of what have become NFC also-rans.


San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (-12.5)


CG and the Westgate both moved from 11.5 to 12.5, while multiple other books were dealing 13 on Sunday night.


New England Patriots (-3/-120) at Denver Broncos


This AFC showdown may shape up as the classic sharps vs. public at the bet window. In games of the year and advanced wagering at the Westgate, there’s been more wiseguy money on Denver than on New England, but Salmons said, “We know next week we’re gonna need Denver big. The public will bet New England.”


Andrews is concerned about the Broncos, who have lost three of five.


“I think Denver’s got some real problems,” Andrews said. “(Trevor) Siemian didn’t look very good (in Sunday’s loss at Tennessee), and they haven’t been able to run the ball all year. Suddenly, they’re a very desperate team.”


But, he added, “New England’s another team that may not be at their peak all of a sudden.”

Oakland Raiders (-3 even) at San Diego Chargers


As an indication of the way these AFC West rivals are trending, the Raiders were 3.5-point favorites when they beat San Diego in Oakland on October 9. Oakland won 34-31, but failed to cover the spread.


Said Andrews, “Oakland is probably due to come to earth a little bit. They’ve been playing really well, but they’re still a young team that has a few holes. They’ve become a public darling and I’m not sure they’re quite that good yet.”


CG Tech was dealing Oakland -2.5 Sunday night.


Pittsburgh Steelers (-3/-120) at Cincinnati Bengals


Similar to the situation discussed just above, Pitt goes from a field-goal favorite at home against Cincy in Week 2 to a field-goal favorite on the road against the division rival. In fact, William Hill was dealing Pitt -3.5 on Sunday.


Monday, Dec. 19


Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins (-4)


The Washington -3.5 that CG hung Sunday lasted less than 20 minutes, and the book moved to -4. There was mix of 4s and 4.5s Sunday night for the Week 15 Monday nighter.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL THURS- MONDAY RECORD AND BEST BETS:


12/01/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
12/04/2016 15-10-1 60.00% +2000
12/05/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/08/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
12/11/2016 17-10-0 62.96% +3000
12/12/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 114-130-8 46.72% -14500


O/U Picks 115-130-6 46.94% -14000


Triple Plays:..... 60 - 64 - 4


BIG PLAYS FOR OCT/NOV 5 - 8 - 1
BIG PLAYS FOR DEC. 6 - 2


12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 1 KANSAS CITY + 4' 29/ N. ORLEANS 28
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL SNOW FAVORITE OF THE DAY G. BAY - 6 21 / HOUSTON 13
12/04- 1 - 0 NFL TOTAL OF THE DAY. UN 44 SAN FRAN/ CHICAGO 26 - 6
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 2 BUFFALO + 3 24 / OAKLAND 38
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 3 TAMPA + 3' 28 / SAN DIEGO 21
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 4 WASHINGTON + 2' 23 / ARIZONA 31
12/08- 1 - 0 NFL THUR. NIGHT GOY K.C. - 3 / OAKLAND 21 - 13
12/08 - 1 - 0 NFL THUR. NIGHT TOTAL OF THE NIGHT KC / OAKLAND UN 46 21 - 13

 

[CNOTES]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 15
December 14, 2016

We've hit the homestretch of the NFL campaign and teams everywhere are doing what they can to stay in the playoff hunt. There are plenty of teams still alive in both conferences and that makes for some very interesting games (and point spreads) this week. We've got plenty of teams getting 4 points or more on the line and there's no question that at least one or two of them are more than capable of pulling off the outright upset.


Sportsbook.ag Underdogs That Qualify


Detroit Lions (+4); ML (+170)
Philadelphia Eagles (+6); ML (+220)
Chicago Bears (+7); ML (+260)
Indianapolis Colts (+4); ML (+170)
Cleveland Browns (+10); ML (+420)
Tennessee Titans (+6); ML (+205)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6); ML (+220)
San Francisco 49ers (+14); ML (+700)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7); ML (+255)
Carolina Panthers (+6); ML (+220)


With 10 teams making the list, I'll start by omitting the Bears, Browns, and 49ers here as only die-hard fans of those clubs will ever seriously consider a ML bet on those sides this week. All three of those organizations know that their 2016 seasons are all but done and with the level of effort and focus in question, trying to take a shot with the ML isn't likely to get your bankroll very far.


Nearly that same list are teams like the Eagles, Jaguars, and Panthers, but while those respective teams are out of the playoff picture, playing spoiler against their opponents (Baltimore, Houston, and Washington respectively) is something to consider. Carolina is on MNF against the Redskins and after such a disappointing season for the defending NFC Champions, the Panthers could use that primetime showcase game to have one of their better outings of the season and spoil the Redskins season at the same time.


Jacksonville is in a similar spot as they are on the road in Houston, and they'd love to get one over on a division rival and snap their eight-game losing streak in the process. At +220 for both Jacksonville and Carolina, both sides are worth serious consideration on the ML this week.


Of the remaining teams, all are either in the lead in their division or a game back and desperately need a win. Indianapolis (+4) likely has to go 3-0 SU to finish the year just to have a shot at getting into the tournament, but going into Minnesota is no easy task, especially when the Vikings are clinging to their own playoff hopes as well. Andrew Luck and the Colts are more than capable of getting it done though as the loser of this game will likely see their hopes for 2016 go down with the L. Getting better than +170 on the Colts would be nice, but even at that price they are still worthy of a deeper look.


Detroit is trying to fend off the Vikings and Packers in the NFC North and their game against the Giants this week is another one where both sides would love to avoid the L. However, the Lions have been playing with fire all year long with almost all of their victories coming after trailing in the 4th quarter and eventually they'll get burned. With Detroit having Dallas and Green Bay on tap to finish out the year, they are still a team that should be in the “wait and see” category this week. That leaves the Titans and the Bucs who both have tough road games against opponents with double digit wins.


Tennessee is in Kansas City to face a Chiefs team that I still don't believe in as they've been living off turnovers and mistakes made by opponents. Like the Lions run with 4th quarter comebacks, eventually a run like that wears out and Tennessee definitely has the running game that can take advantage of the Chiefs ranking 27th in the league vs the run.


Tampa Bay is in Dallas to take on a Cowboys team remembering how to deal with a loss, and fading a team after a loss that snapped a six-plus game winning streak is a strategy I like to employ. It's funny how even after 11 straight wins, the Cowboys and their fans are wondering when they will see Tony Romo again after another defeat and that organization just loves to create drama. But the Giants did expose ways how to beat this Dallas side and Tampa Bay is built in a similar fashion and playing tremendous football themselves in winning five straight. Tampa's defense has only allowed more than 17 points once during that span and they've played some very good teams and/or offenses during that time as well. Holding the Saints to 11 points last week was prefaced by giving up 5 to Seattle and 17 to Kansas City, so there is quite a bit of value on Tampa at +255.


Of the 10 teams on this list, putting ML wagers on Indianapolis (+170), Jacksonville (+220), Carolina (+220), Tennessee (+205), and Tampa Bay (+255) should see you go at least 2-3 SU and wrangle up some profits.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL opening line report: "Lines like these are usually fishy for a reason"


“The public is going to be all over Oakland in this matchup, laying just a field goal against a 5-8 Chargers squad. But lines like these are usually fishy for a reason.”


Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-4)


New York has proven to be the kryptonite that kills Dallas. The Giants (9-4 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) beat the Cowboys for the second time this year, winning a defensive slugfest 10-7 as a 3.5-point home underdog. New York has now won seven of its last eight SU, going 6-2 ATS in that stretch to put itself firmly in playoff position.


Of Detroit’s 13 games this season, all but one have been decided by 7 points or less, and the Lions have won eight of those one-score games. That was the case again Sunday, when Detroit (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) edged Chicago 20-17 on quarterback Matthew Stafford’s 7-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter.


Stafford played through a right-hand injury, reportedly a dislocated thumb and torn ligaments that will require him to wear a glove on his throwing hand against New York.


“The injury to Stafford is certainly something to consider when handicapping this contest, as he was clearly affected by it (Sunday),” Lester said early Monday. “A pair of quality defenses should equate to this total heading south, and it has already moved from 44 to 42.5.”


More under action dropped that number to 41 Monday afternoon. On the flip side, the line is heading north, having gone to Giants -5.


New England Patriots at Denver Broncos, no line


Defending Super Bowl champion Denver is closing in on must-win situations if it hopes to reach the playoffs and defend that title. The Broncos (8-5 SU and ATS) were held scoreless into the fourth quarter at Tennessee on Sunday, and a late comeback attempt fizzled on a lost fumble in a 13-10 loss as a 2-point underdog.


New England (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) still has work to do in Week 14, playing host to Baltimore in the Monday night game. The Patriots would be the No. 1 seed in the AFC if the playoffs opened today.


“We’ll wait until ‘Monday Night Football’ is over before hanging a line, but if there aren’t any surprises, the Patriots will be 3.5 to 4-point road favorites,” Lester said. “The Denver defense should be pretty amped to perform well against a top-flight offense. But can Trevor Siemian and the Denver offense keep up?”


Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (+3)

Oakland will look to bounce back from its first loss since mid-October. The Raiders (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) were dealt a 21-13 setback at Kansas City as a 3.5-point pup in the Thursday nighter, dropping them into a tie for first in the AFC West with the Chiefs, who hold the tiebreaker because they won both meetings with Oakland this year.


Much like Detroit, San Diego has been in a lot of one-score games this year, but on the wrong end of the result. The Chargers were on the wrong end again Sunday, but not in a one-score game. San Diego (5-8 SU, 7-6 ATS) fell behind 23-0 in a 28-16 loss at Carolina catching 1 point.


“The public is going to be all over Oakland in this matchup, laying just a field goal against a 5-8 Chargers squad,” Lester said. “But lines like these are usually fishy for a reason, and the early money has actually been on the home ‘dog.”


That brought the number down to 2.5 this afternoon.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-7)


Dallas has only lost to one team the entire 2016 season. Twice. The Cowboys (11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS) fell to the New York Giants 20-19 in their season opener as a 1-point favorite, then ripped off 11 consecutive wins. On Sunday night, that streak ended with a 10-7 loss in a defensive struggle at New York, where the Pokes were 3.5-point favorites.


Meanwhile, a month ago, this game looked like any other late-season contest for Tampa Bay in recent years – meaningless. However, the Buccaneers ripped off five consecutive SU and ATS wins and are tied with Atlanta atop the NFC South. Tampa (8-5 SU and ATS) slogged past New Orleans 16-11 Sunday laying 2 points at home.


“Tampa Bay has been one of the hottest teams at the wagering window, and the bettors have certainly taken notice,” Lester said. “Sharps played against them last week, but the squares didn’t hesitate to take them against the Saints. That won’t happen here, as the Cowboys are the most-backed team in the league, and the fact that they’re off a loss won’t help us garner ‘dog action.”

 

[CNOTES]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 15 NFL lines are going to move


The Bucs earned valuable street cred with their Weeks 11-12 wins over Kansas City and Seattle, and now are legit players in the NFC playoff mix.


Game to bet now


Tampa Bay at Dallas (-7)


It took the Bucs a while to figure things out this season, but Tampa Bay is on its best roll in years, and with five straight victories is making life very uncomfortable for Atlanta in the NFC South. Both are 8-5, the teams have split their two games and the final three weeks of the season will be spent examining tie-breaking procedures.


Tampa Bay’s road won’t be easy – after Sunday they play at New Orleans and then home vs. Carolina. But the Bucs earned valuable street cred with their Weeks 11-12 wins over Kansas City and Seattle, and now are legit players in the NFC playoff mix. Bettors are responding, too, feasting on the original line of 7.5 and betting it down a half-point early in the week.


Game to wait on


Cleveland at Buffalo (-10)


The players love him and the media loves him, but in the NFL you can lose only so much, so it looks like Rex Ryan’s coaching career is about to fade to black. A SU loss to the Browns would probably be his final game as a head coach and he pretty much needs to run the table (and somewhat convincingly) to salvage a 9-7 season and perhaps another season on the sidelines. But things don’t look good for either Ryan or QB Tyrod Taylor. Taylor is due a huge guaranteed contract if he stays with the Bills into mid-March, so it’s very possible they cut ties with both the HC and the QB.


As for the Browns and their trip to nowhere, bettors don’t even like them against a struggling Bills team, so the line has already bumped up a half-point from its 9.5 opening, and could go further.


Total to watch


Detroit at New York Giants (41.5)


Just when the Lions start to figure things out, they now have to deal with an injured quarterback. Matthew Stafford has emerged as one of the best QBs in the league and has led the 9-4 Lions to the top of the NFC North and a probable playoff spot. If things break right, they could get a first-round bye. But the injury (the Lions aren’t saying what it is) is raising concerns. He’ll play Sunday, but you can be sure that the Giants (9-4; they also need a victory to keep the heat on Dallas) will attempt to make the pocket very uncomfortble.


Will Detroit try to relieve the pressure by running the ball, killing clock? One other note – both the Giants (3-10-0) and Lions (4-9) are among the best under teams in the league.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 15

Thursday, December 15

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LA RAMS (4 - 9) at SEATTLE (8 - 4 - 1) - 12/15/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 175-221 ATS (-68.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 175-221 ATS (-68.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-173 ATS (-64.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 137-175 ATS (-55.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 64-94 ATS (-39.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 65-36 ATS (+25.4 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 4-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 4-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, December 17

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MIAMI (8 - 5) at NY JETS (4 - 9) - 12/17/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 54-78 ATS (-31.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NY JETS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 4-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 18

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TAMPA BAY (8 - 5) at DALLAS (11 - 2) - 12/18/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
TAMPA BAY is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
DALLAS is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 36-58 ATS (-27.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (9 - 4) at NY GIANTS (9 - 4) - 12/18/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 130-166 ATS (-52.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (5 - 8) at BALTIMORE (7 - 6) - 12/18/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games after playing on Monday night football since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GREEN BAY (7 - 6) at CHICAGO (3 - 10) - 12/18/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 104-76 ATS (+20.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 64-37 ATS (+23.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 59-35 ATS (+20.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 7) at MINNESOTA (7 - 6) - 12/18/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (0 - 13) at BUFFALO (6 - 7) - 12/18/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as an underdog this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
BUFFALO is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
BUFFALO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (7 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (10 - 3) - 12/18/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 11) at HOUSTON (7 - 6) - 12/18/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 5-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (5 - 8) at ARIZONA (5 - 7 - 1) - 12/18/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 12) at ATLANTA (8 - 5) - 12/18/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (11 - 2) at DENVER (8 - 5) - 12/18/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 180-135 ATS (+31.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 59-39 ATS (+16.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 111-81 ATS (+21.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 77-53 ATS (+18.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 57-36 ATS (+17.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 2-1 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (10 - 3) at SAN DIEGO (5 - 8) - 12/18/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 31-58 ATS (-32.8 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 36-76 ATS (-47.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 19-42 ATS (-27.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 30-55 ATS (-30.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
OAKLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 3-2 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (8 - 5) at CINCINNATI (5 - 7 - 1) - 12/18/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 70-96 ATS (-35.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 5-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 19

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CAROLINA (5 - 8) at WASHINGTON (7 - 5 - 1) - 12/19/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CAROLINA is 55-33 ATS (+18.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 31-50 ATS (-24.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 58-90 ATS (-41.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home games when playing on Monday night since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 22-44 ATS (-26.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Week 15

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, December 15

8:25 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. SEATTLE
Los Angeles is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Los Angeles's last 7 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games at home
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Los Angeles


Saturday, December 17

8:25 PM
MIAMI vs. NY JETS
Miami is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Miami is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets are 3-5-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing at home against Miami
NY Jets are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing at home against Miami


Sunday, December 18

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. CHICAGO
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at home
Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. HOUSTON
Jacksonville is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Jacksonville is 2-21 SU in its last 23 games on the road
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games
NY Giants are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Buffalo's last 9 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 4-9-2 ATS in its last 15 games
Cincinnati is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games ,

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Minnesota's last 12 games

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. BALTIMORE
Philadelphia is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ATLANTA
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Francisco

4:05 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ARIZONA
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Arizona18-5-1 SU in its last 24 games at home

4:25 PM
OAKLAND vs. SAN DIEGO
Oakland is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games at home
San Diego is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Oakland

4:25 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 12 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Denver's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games at home

8:30 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tampa Bay's last 11 games when playing Dallas
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 6-11-2 ATS in its last 19 games at home
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Monday, December 19

8:30 PM
CAROLINA vs. WASHINGTON
Carolina is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Carolina is 3-6-2 ATS in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games at home

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 15

Thurs – Dec. 15

Los Angeles at Seattle, 8:25 PM ET
Los Angeles: 29-57 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse
Seattle: 5-1 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game


Sat – Dec. 17

Miami at NY Jets, 8:25 PM ET
Miami: 0-6 ATS off a non-conference game
New York: 8-0 ATS after 4 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse


Sun – Dec. 18

Tampa Bay at Dallas, 8:30 PM ET
Tampa Bay: 18-6 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49
Dallas: 5-13 ATS in games played on turf

Detroit at NY Giants, 1:00 PM ET
Detroit: 22-43 ATS in road games off a home win
New York: 64-41 ATS off a home win

Philadelphia at Baltimore, 1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia: 48-29 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Baltimore: 3-12 ATS in home games after playing on Monday night football

Green Bay at Chicago, 1:00 PM ET
Green Bay: 6-0 ATS after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game
Chicago: 10-22 ATS in home games after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game

Indianapolis at Minnesota, 1:00 PM ET
Indianapolis: 9-1 OVER in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest
Minnesota: 9-2 ATS as a home favorite

Cleveland at Buffalo, 1:00 PM ET
Cleveland: 0-6 ATS after 7 or more consecutive losses
Buffalo: 20-7 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Tennessee at Kansas City, 1:00 PM ET
Tennessee: 6-16 ATS in road games
Kansas City: 18-7 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Jacksonville at Houston, 1:00 PM ET
Jacksonville: 67-94 ATS after playing a game at home
Houston: 10-2 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

New Orleans at Arizona, 4:05 PM ET
New Orleans: 44-25 OVER off 2 or more consecutive unders
Arizona: 7-0 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5

San Francisco at Atlanta, 4:05 PM ET
San Francisco: 20-8 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite
Atlanta: 7-22 ATS in home games after a win by 14 or more points

New England at Denver, 4:25 PM ET
New England: 16-4 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
Denver: 27-13 OVER after a loss by 3 or less points

Oakland at San Diego, 4:25 PM ET
Oakland: 10-1 ATS in road games against conference opponents
San Diego: 0-7 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh: 48-28 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game
Cincinnati: 70-96 ATS versus division opponents


Mon – Dec. 19

Carolina at Washington, 8:30 PM ET
Carolina: 8-1 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3
Washington: 4-15 ATS in home games when playing on Monday night

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday's Top Action
December 13, 2016


NFL Week 15 Thursday Football Betting Preview
Los Angeles Rams (4-9 SU; 4-8-1 ATS) vs. Seattle Seahawks (8-4-1 SU; 7-6 ATS)


Sportsbook.ag Odds: Seattle (-15); Total set at 38.5


The post-Jeff Fisher era begins for the Rams on a short week as they head north to Seattle to take on a Seahawks team that just got their asses handed to them in Green Bay. NFL bettors have had no problem fading the lowly Rams all year with their lowly 4-8-1 ATS record, but those bets against L.A. have been ramped up in both ticket count and money bet since the start of October as L.A. is just 2-7-1 ATS since then.


Internally, the Rams organization is a complete mess and become a laughingstock of the NFL and chances are it will be at least a year or two before this team becomes respectable. Three straight losses by 16 points or more sealed Fisher's fate (if it wasn't already) and now the Rams are left to pick up the pieces in just a few days. There will be no shortage of money going against the Rams again this week, but are you really excited about laying 15 points with Seattle on short rest?


Seattle looked downright awful on both sides of the ball vs. Green Bay on Sunday as the defense allowed 38 points in the 38-10 loss. To be fair to Seattle's defense, they weren't exactly put in the best spots with the offense turning the ball over five times and cleaning up those turnovers is one of the top priorities this week. There is little doubt that Seattle should win this game rather comfortably given all the dysfunction in Los Angeles right now, but the point spread is always the great equalizer and 15 points is a lot of chalk to swallow.


That being said, early betting action has already seen this number get pushed up to 15 after opening at -14, and given how profitable it's been to bet against the Rams the past two months, there is only going to be more and more tickets written Seattle's way as the week goes on. If you aren't shy about laying that kind of chalk, I'd suggest getting your bet in sooner than later as we could very well see this game close around the -17 mark.


Those that are willing to lay the points will have to remember that it's actually Seattle who is looking for revenge in this division rivalry though as it was the Rams who won the first meeting 9-3 back in mid-September. Obviously the teams have gone in much different directions since then, but the Rams do match up well with Seattle and they've won the last three meetings – all as underdogs. There's a great chance Seattle snaps that streak this week, but the game could end up being closer than this point spread suggests.


Yet, rather then making a play on this point spread with all the uncertainty and changes going on in L.A right now, it's the total that presents more value here. Early money on this total has already pushed the number down about two points (opened 40.5) as bettors look back at that 9-3 score in the first meeting and don't expect the Rams to put up many points against a Seattle defense that will be hungry for redemption after getting torched in Green Bay.


However, the Rams coaching change could spark an excitement within that Rams locker room to attempt to finish the season strong and it's not like Green Bay was the only team to put up good numbers against this Seahawks defense this season.


Seattle is 4-1 O/U in their last five games at home and should be able to threaten 30+ points against a Rams defense that has allowed an average of 39 points/game over their last three contests. Seattle has averaged 32 points per game during this 4-1 O/U run at home, and as the hefty favorites they are, the Seahawks would love to improve on that number.


Simply reaching that average this week and allowing just a single TD would push this game 'over' the current total of 38.5 and as part of a division rematch flip-flop theory here (1st meeting goes 'under' take 'over' in the 2nd meeting), the chances of that happening are rather strong. As embarrassed and frustrated as the Seahawks defense was last week, once this game is in hand, it's very easy to think that the Seahawks defense will be in prevent-mode and let the Rams move the ball with more success during garbage time.


And if this game is closer than expected, it's not likely to be a FG battle again and the Rams will have 14+ points in that scenario. Either way, this total is a touch too low now and should be surpassed in a game that's not likely to bring plenty of excitement.


Best Bet: Over 38.5 points.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 15


Thursday's game
Rams (4-9) @ Seahawks (8-4-1)— Seattle slipped out of #2 seed in NFC with loss to Packers; Seahawks are 6-0 at home, 3-3 as home favorites, with three wins by 11+ points. LA is in turmoil, traveling on short work week with John Fassel their interim coach; Rams lost eight of last nine games overall, but they have beaten Seattle three times in row, including a 6-3 slugfest in Coliseum in Week 2, when Wilson was gimpy with bad ankle. Rams’ 23-17 win here LY was their first win in last 11 visits to Seattle. Rams were outscored 117-45 in last three games; they’re 4-2 as road underdogs, but were outscored 38-0 in first half of last two games. NFC divisional home favorites are 6-12-1 vs spread. Over is 4-2 in last six Seattle games, 3-5 in Rams’ eight games away from home.




Saturday's game
Dolphins (8-5) @ Jets (4-9)— Tannehill (sprained ACL/MCL) is out, but maybe not for year; Matt Moore gets his first start since 2011 (13-12 career record). His backup is WKU rookie Doughty, who has never played in NFL. Miami (-3.5) won first meeting 27-23 in Week 9, running kick back for GW TD with 5:15 left in game; that snapped 3-game skid with Jets. Miami has won six of last eight visits here. Dolphins won seven of last eight games overall, are 2-4 on road (won at Chargers/Rams). Jets rallied from down 17-3 at half to win in OT in Santa Clara LW, snapping 4-game skid. New York is 1-5 at home, with three losses by 5 or less points- this is best team Petty has started against (previous starts vs LA/SF). Over is 4-1 in Miami’s last five games, 2-7 in Jets’ last nine. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 13-7 vs spread.




Sunday's games
Lions (9-4) @ Giants (9-4)— Giants are 0-4-1 vs spread the week after their last five wins over Dallas. Third and final outdoor game for Detroit this season, first since Week 4 in Chicago. Lions are 9-4 despite trailing in 4th quarter in 12 of 13 games; they’re 3-3 on road (0-2 outdoors), 4-1 as road underdog. Stafford has injured middle finger on throwing hand; he played whole game LW, but his throwing has to be hampered. New York won seven of last eight games, is 6-1 at home, 2-2 as a home favorite. Giants won three of last four series games; Detroit won three of last four visits here, with last one in 2010. NFC North road underdogs are 7-6 against the spread; NFC East home favorites are 7-3. Last seven Detroit games stayed under the total, as have last five Giant games.

Eagles (5-8) @ Ravens (7-6)— Last four games, Philly allowed 8.7/8.0/10.7/10.8 yards/pass attempt; not good. Eagles lost eight of last ten games after a 3-0 start; they’re 1-6 on road with only win at Chicago in Week 2- they lost last four games overall (0-4 vs spread) with losses by 11-14-18-5 points. Philly also has a new long snapper this week. Ravens are on short week after 30-23 loss in Foxboro; Baltimore won/covered its last four home games, they’re 4-2 as home favorites. Home side is 3-0-1 in last four series games; three of those games were decided by 5 or less points. Eagles lost 36-7 in last visit here, in ’08. NFC East road underdogs are 4-6 vs spread; AFC North home favorites are 7-5. Over is 5-1-1 in Eagle road games, 1-5 in Baltimore home games.


Packers (7-6) @ Bears (3-10)— Green Bay defense allowed 36 points in last three games (all wins), after allowing 153 (153!!!) in previous four games. Packers are 2-4 on road, with wins at Jaguars (27-23), Eagles (27-13); they’re 0-3 as road favorites. Pack is 7-1 when they allow less than 30 points. Chicago is 1-4 since its bye; they’re 3-3 at home, 3-1 as home underdogs- their last three losses were all by 6 or less points. Green Bay (-7.5) won first meeting 26-10 in Week 7, outgunning Bears 406-189; only Chicago TD was scored by defense in game that was 6-3 at half. Packers won last six visits here, five by 7+ points. Over is 5-2 in Packers’ last seven games, 2-6 in Bears’ last eight. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 13-7 vs spread. Packers had 12 takeaways in 12 games before they had six in 38-10 win over Seattle.


Colts (6-7) @ Vikings (7-6)— Minnesota is 2-6 in its last eight games but only game out of Wild Card; Vikings are 4-2 at home, 3-1 as home favorites- they struggled in red zone LW, scoring 16 points on five red zone drives vs Jaguars. Minnesota is 11-37 on 3rd down the last three weeks. Colts won last three road games, are 3-1-1 as road underdogs, losing true road games by 3 in Houston, 14 in Denver. Indy is 20-40 on 3rd down last three games, but they turned ball over six times (-2)- Colts are 5-0 vs spread in game following their last five losses. Indy won last four series games, last three all by three points; home side won 10 of last 11 series games. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 7-14, 5-7 on road. NFC North home favorites are 7-6. Under is 9-4 in Viking games, 3-1 in last four Indy games.


Browns (0-13) @ Bills (6-7)— Cleveland is 2-11 vs spread; 0-16 Lions were 7-9 vs spread in ‘08. Browns are 2-4 as road underdogs, losing away games by 19-6-11-2-14-21 points- this is their first road game since Week 10. In last three games, Cleveland was outscored 48-6 in first half. Buffalo is 6-1 if they allow 21 or less points, 0-6 if they allow more. Browns scored 9.8 pts/game their last five games. Bills lost last two games, dropped out of contention; they are 3-3 at home, 1-2 as home favorite, with wins by 15-29-7 at home. Buffalo won three of last four series games; Browns lost 13-6/26-10 in last two visits here. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 2-10, 2-6 on road. AFC East home favorites are 4-5. Last five Cleveland games stayed under total; over is 10-2 in Bills’ last 12 games.


Titans (7-6) @ Chiefs (10-3)— Tennessee won three of last four games; they’re 3-3 on road, 2-3 as road underdogs. Titans were just 6-21/73 passing LW but beat Denver and are tied for first in AFC South. Chiefs won eight of last nine games, won/covered last three; they had three extra days to prep since beating Oakland last Thursday. KC is 5-1 at home, 2-4 vs spread as a home favorite, with three home wins by 6 or less points- they averaged 10.6.9.9 yds/pass attempt last two games. Home side lost five of last six series games; Titans won three of last four visits here- they’re 4-3 overall in last seven series games. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 7-14, 5-7 on road. AFC West home favorites are 6-9. Over is 8-2 in last ten Tennessee games, 3-9 in Chiefs’ last 12 games.


Jaguars (2-11) @ Texans (7-6)— Houston’s win at Indy LW snapped 3-game skid, kept them tied for first in AFC South; Texans are 5-1 at home, 3-0-1 as a home favorite- they’ve been outscored in second half in each of their last seven games. Jaguars lost last eight games (2-6 vs spread); they’re 1-5 on road, 3-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 24-14-5-7-7 points- their only road win was 17-16 at Chicago, when they were down 13-0 in 4th quarter. Houston (+2) won first meeting 24-21 in Jacksonville in Week 10, throwing for only 92 yards but scoring a defensive TD. Texans are 10-2 in last 12 series games, winning last five in row. Jaguars lost five of last six visits here, losing 23-17/30-6 the last two years. AFC divisional home favorites are 14-7 vs spread this season.


Saints (5-8) @ Cardinals (5-7-1)— New Orleans lost by 15-5 points last two games, with one TD, five FGA, six turnovers on 20 drives; Saints are 2-4 on road, 4-1 as road underdogs, with road losses by 3-6-3-5 points- five of their six road games were decided by 6 or less points. Arizona lost three of its last four games, is 4-2-1 at home, 3-4 as home favorites; they lost to Rams/Patriots, tied Seattle. Redbirds allowed 27.8 pts/game their last six games, giving up 16 TD’s on opponents’ last 62 drives. Home side won last six series games; Saints lost last three visits here, by 24-10-12 points. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 9-2 vs spread. NFC West home favorites are 7-10 vs spread, 5-5 at home. Under is 6-2 in Saints’ last eight games, 0-4 in Arizona’s last four.


49ers (1-12) @ Falcons (8-5)— Niners blew 17-3 halftime lead LW in losing 12th game in row; SF is 2-4 as road underdog, losing away games by 19-19-29-3-7-20 points. SF allowed 37-45 in its two games on artificial turf this year, losses by 19-29. Bad sign: Niners were outscored 39-0 in second half of last two games, vs Bears/Jets. Atlanta’s two best WRs sat out LW’s game in LA; Falcons are 3-3 at home, 1-4 as home favorites, with wins by 15-1-19 points. 49ers won last three series games, by 4-1-10 points; they’ve lost two of last three visits here, winning 28-24 in last visit here, a 2012 playoff game. NFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 4-8 vs spread; NFC South home favorites are 5-9. Four of last five 49er game stayed under total; over is 11-2 in Falcon games this year.

Patriots (10-2) @ Broncos (8-5)— Long travel on short week for New England, which is 1-6 in last seven games in Denver, losing last three by 10-6-2 points. Patriots are 8-1 with Brady under center this year, 5-0 on road, 4-1 as road favorites, 3-0 on grass. Denver is 2-3 in its last five games, 4-2 at home, losing to Falcons by 7, Chiefs by 3. Broncos are 3-2 as an underdog this year. Denver is tied with Miami for last Wild Card slot; this game means more to them than to Patriots, who have game lead for #1 seed in AFC. Home side won last seven games in series; Patriots lost three of last four games with Denver, with wins in playoff games the last two years. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 8-5 vs spread, 4-0 on road. AFC West underdogs are 9-4, 1-0 at home. Under is 7-3 in last ten Denver games, 3-1 in last four Patriot games.

Raiders (10-3) @ Chargers (5-8)—Oakland had three extra days to prep after loss in Kansas City snapped its 6-game win streak. Raiders are 5-1 in true road games, with wins by 1-7-1-17-6 points- they’re 3-3 as a favorite this year, +6 in turnovers their last four games. San Diego lost three of last four games; they’re 3-3 at home, losing last two games here 31-24/28-21 to Dolphins/Bucs. Chargers are 4-3 as an underdog this year. Raiders (-4) won first meeting 34-31 in Week 5; Raiders had four takeaways (+3) while San Diego averaged 11.0 yards/pass attempt. Raiders won last three series games, by 8-3-3 points, but lost three of last four visits here. Favorites are 5-3 vs spread in AFC West divisional games this season. Over is 10-3 in Oakland games, 0-2-1 in last three Charger games.


Steelers (8-5) @ Bengals (5-7-1)— Steelers won/covered last four games, with three of those wins on road; Pitt is 4-2 at home, 4-1 as home favorite, with wins by 8-29-18-10 points- their home losses were to Pats/Cowboys. Bengals won last two games after a 1-5-1 skid; they’re 3-2 at home, losing to Broncos/Bills; they’re 0-3 as an underdog. Pitt (-3.5) won first meeting 24-16 in Week 2, in a game where Bengals outgained them 412-374. Steelers won six of last seven series games; they are 6-1 in last seven visits here, winning 33-20/18-16 in last two visits to Queen City. Favorites are 7-1 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season. Bengals cut K Nugget this week, signed former Steeler K Bullock. Under is 9-3 in last 12 Steeler games, 4-1 in last five Bengal games.

Buccaneers (8-5) @ Cowboys (11-2)— Dallas is 2-24 on third down in its last two games; if they lose this game. there will be a QB controversy. Tampa Bay gets thrust into national spotlight here after five straight wins/covers; Bucs allowed only five TDs on last 38 drives over last four games- they’re 5-1 on road with four SU upsets (4-1 vs spread as road dog this year). Cowboys are 0-2 vs Giants, 11-0 vs everyone else; they’re 3-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 14-14-6-10-5 points. Dallas won five of last six series games; Bucs are 1-9 in Dallas, with only win a 10-6 game in 2001. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 9-2 vs spread. NFC East home favorites are 7-3. Under is 3-0-1 in Bucs’ last four games, 7-3 in Cowboys’ last ten. This is Bucs’ first game on artificial turf since 31-24 win in Week 1 at Atlanta.




Monday's game
Panthers (5-8) @ Redskins (7-5-1)— Washington enters week half-game behind Bucs in Wild Card race; Redskins won/covered last four home games, scoring 31.5 pts/game- they’re 3-1 as home favorites. Panthers are 1-5 on road, with only win 13-10 at LA; they were favored in four of six road games, are 1-1 as a road underdog. Washington scored 23+ points in its last six games; they’re 6-1 allowing less than 27 points. Carolina held Redskins to nine first downs in 44-16 win LY; Panthers won last four series games after losing seven of previous eight- Carolina lost five of six games here. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 9-2 vs spread. NFC East home favorites are 7-3. Last six Redskin games went over total; under is 4-2 in last six Carolina games. Hopefully Cam Newton wore a tie on the team flight.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 15

Thursday, December 15

Los Angeles @ Seattle

Game 301-302
December 15, 2016 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Los Angeles
120.955
Seattle
140.363
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 19 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 16
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-16); Over


Saturday, December 17

Miami @ NY Jets

Game 303-304
December 17, 2016 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
130.723
NY Jets
124.678
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 6
31
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 2 1/2
38
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-2 1/2); Under


Sunday, December 18

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

Game 329-330
December 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
137.590
Cincinnati
136.362
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+3 1/2); Over

Oakland @ San Diego

Game 327-328
December 18, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
136.114
San Diego
130.754
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 5 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 3
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-3); Under

New England @ Denver

Game 325-326
December 18, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
137.327
Denver
135.978
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 1 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 3 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+3 1/2); Over

San Francisco @ Atlanta

Game 323-324
December 18, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
118.065
Atlanta
142.869
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 25
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 14
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-14); Over

New Orleans @ Arizona

Game 321-322
December 18, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
131.522
Arizona
131.418
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
Even
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 2 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+2 1/2); Under

Jacksonville @ Houston

Game 319-320
December 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
123.033
Houston
134.015
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 11
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 6
39
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-6); Over

Tennessee @ Kansas City

Game 317-318
December 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
136.613
Kansas City
135.668
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 1
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 6
42
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+6); Under

Cleveland @ Buffalo

Game 315-316
December 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
123.186
Buffalo
129.762
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 6 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 10
41
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+10); Over

Indianapolis @ Minnesota

Game 313-314
December 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
128.633
Minnesota
136.021
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 7 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 4
45
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-4); Under

Green Bay @ Chicago

Game 311-312
December 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
140.245
Chicago
126.298
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 14
31
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 7
41
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-7); Under

Philadelphia @ Baltimore

Game 309-310
December 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
125.456
Baltimore
137.566
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 12
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 6
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-6); Over

Detroit @ NY Giants

Game 307-308
December 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
136.939
NY Giants
135.544
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 1 1/2
33
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 4
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+4); Under

Tampa Bay @ Dallas

Game 305-306
December 18, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
132.055
Dallas
144.206
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 12
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 7
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-7); Over


Monday, December 19

Carolina @ Washington

Game 331-332
December 19, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
133.689
Washington
133.061
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 1
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 5
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+5); Under

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Thursday, December 15

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Thursday Night Football betting preview: Rams at Seahawks
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Russell Wilson was hampered by an ailing ankle on Sept. 18 and threw for just 254 yards as the Seahawks lost to the Rams, 9-3, in Los Angeles.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-16, 38.5)

The Seattle Seahawks are trying to put the pieces together after a lopsided loss while the Los Angeles Rams are attempting to tackle a much bigger puzzle with an interim head coach at the helm during a short week. The first-place Seahawks look to capture the NFC West title for the third time in four years and remain perfect in the Pacific Northwest on Thursday night when they host John Fassel and the reeling Rams.

Seattle, which needs just a win or an Arizona loss to clinch the division crown, hardly looked like a playoff contender on Sunday as Russell Wilson threw a career-high five interceptions in a 38-10 setback in Green Bay. "I put that on me. That game was on me," said the 28-year-old Wilson, who was hampered by an ailing ankle on Sept. 18 and threw for just 254 yards as the Seahawks suffered their third straight loss to the Rams with a 9-3 decision in Los Angeles. That was a happier time for the Rams, who parted ways with Jeff Fisher on Monday and temporarily handed the keys to special teams coach Fassel just hours after the club sustained its eighth loss in nine games with a 42-14 shellacking by Atlanta. Fassel's task is a formidable one as Los Angeles ranks last in the NFL in points (14.9 per game) and total yards (286.2), and 30th overall in both rushing yards (81.1) and turnover differential (minus-11).

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC, NFL Network.

POWER RANKINGS: Rams (+5.5) - Seahawks (-4.5) + home field (-3) = Seahawks -13

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened as 13-point home favorites over the Rams. That -13 clearly wasn't big enough for the betting public and was steadily bet up all week until it finally settled in at -16 on Wednesday evening. The total hit the board at 39.5 and came down a full point to 38.5. View complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast in Seattle for Thursday night is calling for clear skies, temperatures right around the freezing mark and no wind issues at all (2-3 mph).

INJURIES:

Rams - WR B. Quick (Probable, shoulder), DE M. Longacre (Probable, heel), DE R. Quinn (Doubtful, concussion), CB E. Gaines (Doubtful, quadricep), RB B. Cunningham (Out, neck), S M. Alexander (Out, concussion), TE C. Harkey (I-R, tricep), LB J. Forrest (I-R, knee), WR N. Spruce (I-R, knee), DT L. Trinca-Pasat (I-R, knee), FB Z. Laskey (I-R, undisclosed), WR M. North (I-R, undisclosed), DB B. Randolph (I-R, knee), T D. Williams (I-R, undisclosed).

Seahawks - LB B. Coyle (Probable, foot), LB D. McDonald (Questionable, illness), DE D. Moore (Out, foot), RB C. Prosise (Out For Season, shoulder), FB W. Tukuafu (I-R, concussion), RB T. Pope (I-R, ankle), S E. Thomas (I-R, leg), DT Q. Jefferson (I-R, knee), DT G. Smith (I-R, undisclosed), TE J. Sommers (I-R, ankle), WR T. Slavin (I-R, undisclosed), DE T. Barnes (I-R, arm), CB S. Jean-Baptiste (I-R, shoulder).

ABOUT THE RAMS (4-9 SU, 4-8-1 ATS, 5-8 O/U): Todd Gurley didn't help Fisher's cause after blurting out that Los Angeles "looked like a middle-school offense out there," with the running back being limited to 3.3 yards per carry and five touchdowns in 13 games this season after an impressive 4.8 average and 10 scores in his rookie campaign. Top overall pick Jared Goff is still getting his feet wet after sitting in favor of Case Keenum, throwing two interceptions on Sunday before finishing with respectable numbers (24-of-41 for 235 yards) due in part to the game being out of hand in a hurry. Both Goff and Gurley scored a rushing touchdown last week, with the former's serving as his first of his career.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (8-4-1 SU, 7-6 ATS, 7-6 O/U): Seattle entered Sunday's game versus Green Bay as the league's top defense but saw that designation shredded after surrendering a season high in points in the first contest without former All-Pro safety Earl Thomas (broken leg). Seattle limited Gurley to just 51 yards on 19 carries with linebacker K.J. Wright collecting a team-high nine tackles in Week 2 and 49 with two sacks and a forced fumble over his last six games at home. Wideout Doug Baldwin has 20 receptions in his last three contests, but was limited to season lows in catches (three) and yards (20) in the first meeting with the Rams.

TRENDS:

* Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Seahawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
* Under is 9-0 in Rams' last 9 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Over is 4-1 in Seahawks' last 5 home games.
* Home team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 57 percent of the picking public is grabbing the home favorite Seahawks and 56 percent are taking the Over.