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NFL TRENDS
Half Time



1:00 pm 12/11/2016
(107) SAN DIEGO @(108) CAROLINA
Play ON SAN DIEGO in the first half in All games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 9 Wins and 1 Losses this season (+7.9 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 12/11/2016
(109) HOUSTON @(110) INDIANAPOLIS
Play AGAINST HOUSTON in the first half in Road games in games played on turf.
The record is 11 Wins and 32 Losses since 1992 (-24.2 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 12/11/2016
(109) HOUSTON @(110) INDIANAPOLIS
Play AGAINST HOUSTON in the first half in All games in games played on turf.
The record is 11 Wins and 32 Losses since 1992 (-24.2 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 12/11/2016
(123) WASHINGTON @(124) PHILADELPHIA
Play AGAINST PHILADELPHIA in the first half in All games revenging a loss against opponent.
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)
BET NOW!


--------------------------------


NFL TRENDS
Half Time Over



4:25 pm 12/11/2016
(129) ATLANTA @(130) LA RAMS
Play OVER ATLANTA on the first half total in All games against NFC West division opponents.
The record is 25 Overs and 7 Unders since 1992 (+17.3 units)
BET NOW!


------------------------------------


NFL TRENDS
Half Time Under



8:30 pm 12/12/2016
(133) BALTIMORE @(134) NEW ENGLAND
Play UNDER BALTIMORE on the first half total in All games in all games where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5.
The record is 2 Overs and 14 Unders for the last two seasons (+11.8 units)
BET NOW!


8:30 pm 12/12/2016
(133) BALTIMORE @(134) NEW ENGLAND
Play UNDER BALTIMORE on the first half total in All games in all games where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5.
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders this season (+8 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 12/11/2016
(105) DENVER @(106) TENNESSEE
Play UNDER TENNESSEE on the first half total in All games after a bye week.
The record is 4 Overs and 18 Unders since 1992 (+13.6 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 12/11/2016
(117) CHICAGO @(118) DETROIT
Play UNDER DETROIT on the first half total in All games after 2 or more consecutive wins.
The record is 2 Overs and 12 Unders for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 12/11/2016
(107) SAN DIEGO @(108) CAROLINA
Play UNDER SAN DIEGO on the first half total in All games in games where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5.
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders for the last two seasons (+8 units)
BET NOW
 

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NFL TRENDS
Over



4:25 pm 12/11/2016
(129) ATLANTA @(130) LA RAMS
Play OVER ATLANTA on the total in All games in all lined games.
The record is 10 Overs and 2 Unders this season (+7.8 units)
BET NOW!


4:25 pm 12/11/2016
(129) ATLANTA @(130) LA RAMS
Play OVER ATLANTA on the total in All games in all games.
The record is 10 Overs and 2 Unders this season (+7.8 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 12/11/2016
(123) WASHINGTON @(124) PHILADELPHIA
Play OVER WASHINGTON on the total in All games in all games.
The record is 10 Overs and 2 Unders this season (+7.8 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 12/11/2016
(105) DENVER @(106) TENNESSEE
Play OVER TENNESSEE on the total in All games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 9 Overs and 1 Unders this season (+7.9 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 12/11/2016
(123) WASHINGTON @(124) PHILADELPHIA
Play OVER WASHINGTON on the total in All games in all lined games.
The record is 10 Overs and 2 Unders this season (+7.8 units)
BET NOW!


8:25 pm 12/8/2016
(101) OAKLAND @(102) KANSAS CITY
Play OVER OAKLAND on the total in All games in all games.
The record is 10 Overs and 2 Unders this season (+7.8 units)
BET NOW!


8:25 pm 12/8/2016
(101) OAKLAND @(102) KANSAS CITY
Play OVER OAKLAND on the total in All games in all lined games.
The record is 10 Overs and 2 Unders this season (+7.8 units)
BET NOW!


---------------------------------


NFL TRENDS
Under



4:25 pm 12/11/2016
(127) SEATTLE @(128) GREEN BAY
Play UNDER GREEN BAY on the total in Home games against conference opponents.
The record is 1 Overs and 9 Unders for the last two seasons (+7.9 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 12/11/2016
(111) CINCINNATI @(112) CLEVELAND
Play UNDER CLEVELAND on the total in All games in December games.
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders for the last three seasons (+8 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 12/11/2016
(111) CINCINNATI @(112) CLEVELAND
Play UNDER CLEVELAND on the total in All games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders for the last three seasons (+8 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 12/11/2016
(107) SAN DIEGO @(108) CAROLINA
Play UNDER SAN DIEGO on the total in All games in games where the line is +3 to -3.
The record is 2 Overs and 13 Unders for the last three seasons (+10.8 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 12/11/2016
(113) PITTSBURGH @(114) BUFFALO
Play UNDER PITTSBURGH on the total in Road games when playing with 6 or less days rest.
The record is 2 Overs and 14 Unders for the last three seasons (+11.8 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 12/11/2016
(113) PITTSBURGH @(114) BUFFALO
Play UNDER PITTSBURGH on the total in Road games against conference opponents.
The record is 1 Overs and 11 Unders for the last two seasons (+9.9 units)
BET NOW!
 

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TNF - Raiders at Chiefs
December 8, 2016




Oakland at Kansas City (-3, 46), 8:25 pm ET, NBC/NFLN



If you’ve dutifully suffered through the Thursday night slate and can remember Miami being shut down by Cincinnati or Baltimore embarrassing Cleveland, this is supposed to be your payoff.


With apologies to the final two TNF offerings, divisional games between the Rams and Seahawks and Giants and Eagles, neither will top the drama of a game that will either decide the AFC West or tighten things up significantly.


The Chiefs and Raiders, long-time AFC West rivals, are both likely to make the playoffs this season, something they haven’t accomplished jointly since 1993. The Raiders were still in L.A. back then, Derrick Thomas was still among us terrorizing quarterbacks and a rivalry between two teams that didn’t hide their disdain for one another thrived.


Barring a massive collapse, Oakland is set to end a playoff drought that dates back to 2002 and can clinch an appearance with a victory here. The Chiefs can wreck the party by earning their 10th win, which would also earn them a season sweep of their rival and the tie-breaker that goes with it. Considering they would also move to 4-0 in divisional play, a victory would certainly put them in the driver’s seat for an AFC West title and a first-round bye. Although these teams have split their last 18 meetings, Kansas City has had the much better run of late, winning six of seven since Andy Reid took over in ’13. They’ve been perfect at Arrowhead Stadium under Reid against the Raiders, winning three times by a combined margin of 78-37.


From a scheduling standpoint, Kansas City is in better shape than the Raiders, who have to travel on a short week. The Chiefs suffered their first home loss of the season against Tampa Bay on Nov. 20, ending a run of 10 consecutive victories at Arrowhead. They’re 22-8 at home under Reid, thriving despite a myriad of injuries and inconsistent offense.


Meanwhile, this Oakland team is 5-0 on the road, a positive since they’ll finish the regular season with three of four away from the Coliseum. Each of the Raiders’ remaining divisional games will be played in enemy territory. They’ve notched one-point wins at New Orleans and Baltimore, but have enjoyed home cooking since Oct. 30, when they rallied to beat the Bucs in overtime for a road win that looks increasingly more impressive by the week. Derek Carr has cemented his status as one of the game’s top young guns with his ability to deliver in the clutch, rallying the Raiders to wins despite the fact they’ve trailed in the second half in four of their last five outings.


Carr’s second-lowest rated game this season came in the Week 6 home loss against the Chiefs, who won 26-10 by holding the Raiders scoreless in the second half, only the second time that’s happened to Oakland all season. It hasn’t transpired since, and the Carr-led offense has actually scored in 20 of the last 24 quarters entering this one.


Kansas City was coming off a by entering their road win at Oakland and put together a complete effort. Carr was forced into an interception by Marcus Peters and also fumbled after being hit by sack master Dee Ford. Spencer Ware ran for a career-high 131 yards to keep the pressure off Alex Smith on the road. Rain was a factor in that contest, but isn’t part of the forecast here. Instead, expect a clear night with frigid temperatures that could dip into the teens. The ‘under’ is 8-4 on Thursday night and has prevailed in four consecutive contests.


Oakland Raiders
Season win total: 8.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Odds to win AFC West: 4/5 to 1/1
Odds to win AFC: 6/1 to 6/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 12/1 to 12/1

Kansas City Chiefs
Season win total: 9.5 (Over -140, Under +120)
Odds to win AFC West: 13/10 to 6/5
Odds to win AFC: 9/1 to 5/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 18/1 to 10/1


LINE MOVEMENT


Kansas City's dds to win the AFC and Super Bowl are virtually the same as they were when they were initially released way back in mid-January. The same can't be said about Oakland, which was a 25-to-1 bet to win its conference and went off at 50-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, potentially paying off handsomely for anyone who took that plunge.


Division odds for these two opened at 7-to-2 for the Raiders on May 1, while the Chiefs came in at 8-to-5. Both were longshots compared to defending champion Denver, which was favored to win a sixth consecutive AFC West title at 3-to-2 but is currently 10-to-1 as it opens Week 14 two games back of Oakland. The Raiders have already surpassed their projected win total at the WestgateLV SuperBook, while Kansas City will cash the 'over' with its next win.


As far as this matchup is concerned, the advanced line was set at Chiefs -3.5 when released on Nov. 29, but opened at -3 and continues to be widely available at that number. The total opened at 47 but is set at 46 virtually everywhere on game day.

TOSSING IT DEEP



Alex Smith has rightfully gained a reputation as a "Checkdown Charlie," opting to keep his team on task by taking minimal risks with dinks and dunks in the passing game. On Sunday, he broke character and ended up with a season-high 10.8 yards per pass in the 29-28 upset at Atlanta, hooking up with star tight end Travis Kelce for 140 yards by working the middle of the field.


The only other time that Smith has cracked over 10 yards per completion came against these Raiders, as he finished 19-for-22 despite not throwing for a touchdown. With Kelce dominating and Tyreek Hill emerging as valuable weapon, Kansas City has some firepower. The Chiefs will also welcome back No. 1 receiver Jeremy Maclin, who missed the Falcons win with a groin injury.


Although the aerial attack has been the driving force for Oakland all season, Latavius Murray's contributions have been immense since he returned from an injury that resulted in him missing that Chiefs loss. Oakland ran just 17 times for 64 yards as rookie DeAndre Washington led the way. Murray has since ran the ball 100 times for 381 yards and eight touchdowns and will be eager to have his say here.

INJURY CONCERNS



With Maclin back, the Chiefs are healthier than most teams typically are in December. DT Jaye Howard was lost to a season-ending hip injury to start the month, but Justin Houston has returned. Defensive linemen Dontari Poe (back) and Kendall Reyes (knee) are questionable, while LB Tamba Hali and CB Philip Gaines are full-go.


The Raiders have upgraded DE Mario Edwards to probable, but have put key corner D.J. Hayden on IR and will be without rookie safety Karl Joseph, LB Shilique Calhoun and DT Stacy McGee.

RECENT MEETINGS (Kansas City 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS last five; OVER 3-2)



10/16/16 Kansas City 26-10 at Oakland (KC -2, 47)
1/3/16 Kansas City 23-17 vs. Oakland (KC -6.5, 44)
12/6/15 Kansas City 34-20 at Oakland (KC -3, 45.5)
12/14/14 Kansas City 31-13 vs. Oakland (KC -11, 41.5)
11/20/14 Oakland 24-20 vs. Kansas City (KC -7, 42.5)


PROPS


Of the props available below at the WestgateLV Superbook, I'd ride that Alex Smith TD/INT prop going over 1.5 and expect more than 3.5 combined sacks.


Will Latavius Murray score TD?: (+110 yes, -130 no)
Alex Smith completions 23.5: (-110 o/u)
Derek Carr passing yards 268.5: (-110 o/u)
Tyreek Hill receiving yards 53.5: (-110 o/u)
Derek Carr TD passes 1.5: (-150 over, +130 under)
Alex Smith TD passes+INT 1.5: (-150 over, +130 under)
Total combined sacks 3.5: (-120 over, +100 under)
First score of game will be: (-165 TD, +145 other)
Total points: Chiefs 25, Raiders 21.5 (-110 o/u)


RAIDERS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG


The Raiders are 3-0 SU/ATS in this role, which doesn't take into account the Bucs win since that closed as a pick'em. They did manage to cover in Kansas City last season despite a loss.

CHIEFS AS A HOME FAVORITE



The Chiefs have been a home favorite in each of their five Arrowhead outings to date, but covered only once against the Jets. They were just 3-5 ATS despite winning their final six home games last season.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED



The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 15 has the Chiefs as 6-point home favorites against Tennessee. The Raiders are back on the road for another divisional game in San Diego and have been placed as an early 1-point underdog against the Chargers.
 

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AFC West heats up TNF
December 7, 2016



Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Kansas City (-3), Total set at 46.5



There isn't anyone out there who thought that this week's Raiders/Chiefs game on TNF would be a battle for 1st place in the AFC West division but that's precisely where we stand.


The Raiders have been one of the best success stories this season at 10-2 SU, currently holding top spot in the entire conference and looking to stay there the rest of the way. Yet, one of those two defeats came at the hands of these Kansas City Chiefs in mid-October and the Raiders would love to solidify their top spot in the division.


The 26-10 loss Oakland suffered at home to the Chiefs earlier this season was by far their worst game of the year. Oakland couldn't get anything going on the ground (64 yards) and QB Derek Carr managed just one TD pass on 225 yards passing with an INT. Kansas City's defense frustrated Oakland's offense all afternoon, and punctuated the win by turning a close 13-10 game at half into a 26-10 drubbing by shutting out the Raiders in the 2nd half.


There is no question that a performance like that by Oakland stuck in their minds for a while, and since then they've put up 30 or more points in five of their six games. The Raiders will need to do something similar this week to earn the W and there aren't too many reasons to think that Oakland's offense won't find better success this time around.


The Chiefs have done everything they can to keep pace in the division outside of a dissapointing two-point home loss vs the Buccaneers a few weeks back. Kansas City has won seven out of their past eight games outright, but they've gone just 5-3 ATS during that span.


Their two most recent wins came on the road as slight underdogs to Atlanta and Denver, and now that they are back at home they are in the much less preferred role of favorites. KC is just 3-5 ATS when laying points this season and as I've said for many weeks in various pieces, this Chiefs team is still one that's getting by on smoke and mirrors right now.


However, many statistically dependant handicappers believe the same can be said about a Raiders team that's been outgained in yardage in nearly every contest this season and that gives this TNF an interesting dynamic. We've got two teams battling out for 1st place and there can be strong arguments made on both sides that neither team deserves to be where they are.


Oakland could very well have a few more L's on their record and the Chiefs – thanks to a last second TD to tie the game in Denver, and a pick-6 on a two point conversion last week – could have a few more defeats as well. The revenge angle does favor the Oakland side getting points, and with the Chiefs poor record as chalk this season, taking the points may be the way to go. But it's this total that I'm making a play on as this number is a little too short.


At 46.5 now thanks to about 60% of the action coming in on the 'under' according to Vegas Insider, bettors currently believe that this 1st place showdown will feature plenty of defense and a playoff-type style of game.


Yet, the Raiders have gone 'over' in six straight games – all six since losing to the Chiefs before – and I doubt that KC will have similar success again this week. After all, Kansas City's defense has given up 27+ points the past two weeks as their own defense has not played up to their full potential.


The last thing Oakland wants to do on the road here is to get into a slugfest with KC as the Raiders defense gives up 24.9 points per game. Carr and the offense prefer to carry the load and protecting the ball will be key.


Kansas City has lived off forcing turnovers this season (something that remains unsustainable), and if Oakland can force the Chiefs to put up 20+ by going the length of the field each time they'll be in good shape.


That being said, KC will likely capitalize on at least one loose ball and short fields and multiple turnovers tend to be good for an 'over' wager.


Although the first meeting between these two stayed well below the total, going with the “flip-flop” strategy in the rematch is the best way to bet this game.


Best Bet: Take Over 46.5 points
 

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NFL THURS- MONDAY RECORD AND BEST BETS:


12/01/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
12/04/2016 15-10-1 60.00% +2000
12/05/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 106-123-8 46.29% -14650


O/U Picks 104-125-6 45.41% -16750


Triple Plays:..... 51 - 58 - 4


BIG PLAYS FOR OCT/NOV 5 - 8 - 1
BIG PLAYS FOR DEC. 4 - 2


12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 1 KANSAS CITY + 4' 29/ N. ORLEANS 28
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL SNOW FAVORITE OF THE DAY G. BAY - 6 21 / HOUSTON 13
12/04- 1 - 0 NFL TOTAL OF THE DAY. UN 44 SAN FRAN/ CHICAGO 26 - 6
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 2 BUFFALO + 3 24 / OAKLAND 38
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 3 TAMPA + 3' 28 / SAN DIEGO 21
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 4 WASHINGTON + 2' 23 / ARIZONA 31
 

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THURSDAY, DECEMBER 8


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


OAK at KC 08:25 PM


KC -3.0 ***** ( AFC WEST THURSDAY NIGHT GOY )


U 46.0 ***** ( TOTAL OF THE DAY )
 

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Chiefs hold off Raiders, 'under' hits
December 8, 2016



KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) Tyreek Hill didn't know what to do when he started hearing thousands of people in Arrowhead Stadium chanting his name, even as he stood all alone on the frozen turf waiting for the punt.


''Just give them what they want, I guess,'' Hill thought to himself.


So he did, the rookie speedster taking the punt back 78-yards for a game-changing touchdown. It followed shortly after he had hauled in a 36-yard touchdown grab, spurring Kansas City to a 21-13 victory over the Oakland Raiders on a frosty Thursday night and into control of the AFC West.


''It gave me chills on the sideline,'' said Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith, who had 261 yards passing with a touchdown and an interception. ''The whole stadium is chanting his name and he answers - that was one of the coolest things I've seen, for sure.''


The Chiefs (10-3) and Raiders (10-3), longtime and bitter rivals, are now tied atop the division, but Kansas City has the tiebreaker by virtue of two head-to-head wins this season.


''This was as big as it gets for a regular-season game,'' Smith said. ''We don't get caught up in all the must-win stuff, that's not how we operate, but we knew the stakes for sure.''


Charcandrick West added a touchdown run and Travis Kelce had five catches for 101 yards as the Chiefs returned from a back-to-back road wins to beat Oakland for the seventh time in eight meetings.


It came at a big cost, though: The Chiefs lost Derrick Johnson for the rest of the season after the star linebacker ruptured his left Achilles just before halftime.


''I felt a little bit of a letdown when it happened,'' Chiefs coach Andy Reid acknowledged, ''but the last thing D.J. would have wanted was a letdown.''


Derek Carr was just 17 of 41 for 117 yards passing for Oakland, but the ugly line wasn't entirely his fault. Seth Roberts dropped just about everything thrown at him, Amari Cooper couldn't adjust to a long throw for a would-be touchdown early in the fourth quarter, and several more passes were dropped to the rock-hard turf of Arrowhead Stadium on a night when wind chills approached single digits.


Latavius Murry led the Raiders with 103 yards rushing and a touchdown.


''I liked our effort, just didn't like the execution,'' said Jack Del Rio, who remained winless in four tries against Kansas City as the Raiders' coach. ''In all three phases we came up a little short.''


That includes the way they defended Hill, one of the game's bright young stars.


He scorched the Raiders for a 36-yard TD reception before bringing his punt back, in the process becoming the first rookie since Gale Sayers in 1965 with touchdowns on the ground, through the air and on punt and kickoff returns in a single season.


''I didn't know that,'' he said. ''I mean, that's great, but I'm not the only one on that field doing it. Without those guys blocking for me, and Alex throwing me the rock, none of that stuff would happen.''


It was still 21-3 when Johnson went down, and his injury seemed to briefly deflate the Kansas City defense. Oakland proceeded to march 92 yards for its lone touchdown just before halftime.


But the Raiders kept coming up empty with their chances in the second half.


Smith threw a pick on the second play of the third quarter, but Oakland had to settle for a field goal. And when Smith was strip-sacked by Khalil Mack on the next play, the Raiders again had to try a field goal - only this time, holder Marquette King couldn't get the snap down.


The Raiders' last chance came with about two minutes left, when a questionable pass interference penalty and a fourth-and-4 conversion got them deep into Kansas City territory. But after a false start on fourth-and-1, Carr's pass toward the end zone was batted incomplete.


The Chiefs went on to pick up the first down they needed to put the game away.


''It was definitely a bad night. There's no getting around that,'' Carr said. ''I hate to have the bad night come on this one, right? Out of all the games that we've had. Obviously, we didn't do enough.''


CATCHING KELCE


Kelce has had at least 100 yards receiving in four straight games, matching the franchise record set by Tony Gonzalez. The only tight end with such a streak is Jimmy Graham, who has done it twice.


MACK DADDY


Mack had a strip-sack for the third straight game, and a sack in his eighth straight dating to the Raiders' loss to Kansas City in October. That matches Lance Johnstone for the longest streak in franchise history since sacks became official in 1982.


INJURIES


Johnson appeared to know he had ruptured his Achilles the moment he went down. He ruptured his other Achilles in 2014 and missed the remainder of that season. ... Defensive tackle Rakeem Nunez-Roches left with back spasms and did not return.


Raiders offensive lineman Kelechi Osemele was a late scratch with an illness that sent him to the hospital, though Del Rio said he'll be able to travel home with the team. Safety Karl Joseph was inactive with a toe injury and defensive tackle Stacy McGee was sidelined by an ankle injury.


UP NEXT


Oakland remains in the AFC West when it heads to slumping San Diego on Dec. 18.


Kansas City continues its three-game homestand Dec. 18 against Tennessee.
 

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NFL THURS- MONDAY RECORD AND BEST BETS:


12/01/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
12/04/2016 15-10-1 60.00% +2000
12/05/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/08/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 107-123-8 46.52% -14150


O/U Picks 105-125-6 45.65% -16250


Triple Plays:..... 53 - 58 - 4


BIG PLAYS FOR OCT/NOV 5 - 8 - 1
BIG PLAYS FOR DEC. 6 - 2


12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 1 KANSAS CITY + 4' 29/ N. ORLEANS 28
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL SNOW FAVORITE OF THE DAY G. BAY - 6 21 / HOUSTON 13
12/04- 1 - 0 NFL TOTAL OF THE DAY. UN 44 SAN FRAN/ CHICAGO 26 - 6
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 2 BUFFALO + 3 24 / OAKLAND 38
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 3 TAMPA + 3' 28 / SAN DIEGO 21
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 4 WASHINGTON + 2' 23 / ARIZONA 31
12/08- 1 - 0 NFL THUR. NIGHT GOY K.C. - 3 / OAKLAND 21 - 13
12/08 - 1 - 0 NFL THUR. NIGHT TOTAL OF THE NIGHT KC / OAKLAND UN 46 21 - 13
 

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Sunday’s six-pack


Six most popular picks in Week 14 of the Westgate SuperContest:


6) Green Bay Packers +2.5 (408)


5) Minnesota Vikings -3 (420)


4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (440)


3) Washington Redskins -1 (481)


2) Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 (558)


1) Baltimore Ravens +7 (577)


Sunday’s Den: Running Diary of a sports Saturday…….


11:45am— I am not a morning person; like to stay up late and then sleep late, so dragging my butt out of bed at 11:25 for some Rice Krispies and the start of the Temple-DePaul game seems like an even worse idea now that Temple leads 13-1 5:30 into the game.


This is part of a HoopHall doubleheader in the Miami Heat’s arena and there might’ve been 100 people in the arena when the game started. Players probably had their pregame meal at 7:30am. Coaches will do most anything to get their teams on national TV.


12:05— Mercifully, games are starting that have people in the stands.


Arizona is playing with seven scholarship players at Missouri, due to injury/eligiblity issues. Missouri hasn’t been any good since Frank Haith bolted for Tulsa. Supposedly Missouri has a kid who is a real good scorer who becomes eligible for their next game, so that should help the Tigers.


UMass-Providence from the Dunkin’ Donuts Center; every time I watch a Providence home game, I get hungry for a jelly donut and a hot chocolate.


Dunkin’ Donuts have drive-thru windows (I’ve never used one); seems to me if you’re sucking down donuts, least you can do is get out of the car to buy them.


Villanova-Notre Dame is the best noon game, from the arena in New Jersey where the NHL’s Devils play. The great Bill Raftery is on this game; met him in Syracuse close to 30 years ago. Good guy, as friendly in person as he seems on TV.


Notre Dame leads early 15-6; Mike Brey is an underrated coach.


12:50— Arizona was up 17 at Missouri, but Tigers cut lead to 41-36 at the half. Sean Miller looks like a guy in a bar at 3am who just lost his job— tie undone, frazzled. He’s never been in the Final Four at a school where Final Fours are expected and his team is dangerously thin this season.


Good one in Newark; Notre Dame is better than expected- they lead Villanova 41-36 at the half of a high-level game. Could easily be an NCAA tournament game.


I was in the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas when Villanova won the national title last April; great fun. Opening Day of baseball, last college hoop game of the year- first Monday in April has become one of the better days of the sports year.


1:25— CBS’ Carter Blackburn is one of the best play-by-play guys on TV; he is working with Raftery today on the Villanova game. Few years ago, he was working a Conference USA game with Pete Gillen when Rice’s mascot Sammie the Owl was ejected for bitching (hooting?) at a referee. Blackburn should be doing NFL games on the network; someday he’ll call a Final Four.


Easy way for college basketball to increase scoring in its games: allow continuation baskets after fouls, the way they do in the NBA. Would be simple enough to do, makes the game more fun.


1:45— Final: Temple 74, DePaul 65— Blue Demons fought back, but they’re not very good.


ESPNU had a live Pop Warner football game from Florida on TV this morning. Seriously? They televise 12-year old kids playing football? Thought that was only at the Little League World Series in August. No wonder I like to sleep late.


Sean Miller can relax: his Arizona team went on a 21-0 run, leads Mizzou by 22 with 2:00 left.


Remember the time when Pitt’s Jerome Lane dunked in a game and shattered the backboard while Raftery screamed “Send it in Jerome!!!” on live TV? Miller assisted on that dunk.


2:05— Villanova 74, Notre Dame 66— If you won this game laying 6.5 points with the Wildcats, you had the wrong side in this game, but you covered. Thats an interesting debate; people will say “I won, how could they be the wrong side?” but sometimes the covering team lucked out. Notre Dame controlled this game for 36:00 but faded down the stretch- couldn’t hit that one shot to cover the number.


Odd bowl matchup: North Texas (+16.5) went to West Point Oct 22 and upset Army 35-18; UNT was +6 in turnovers in game where Cadets outgained North Texas 396-320- this is the only rematch of this bowl season. Favorites won/covered the Heart of Dallas Bowl the last five years, with all five games decided by 13+ points. Favorites rarely dominate bowl games.


Mediocre set of 2:00 TV games; I’m focusing on Rhode Island-Houston, Wisconsin-Marquette.


2:45— URI is up 42-37; Rams have lot of injuries, seems like every year.


Former major league pitcher Anthony Varvaro (relieved in 166 games in a 6-year MLB career) made over $2M in his baseball career, but now he has a new job— he will be a police officer with the Port Authority Police of NY/NJ- he pitched for the Red Sox’ AAA team this past summer. Interesting career change.


3:02— Halftime: Marquette 40, Wisconsin 35- Best game going on right now, Katin Reinhardt plays for Marquette, his third college (UNLV, USC) in five years. College coaches are like NBA GMs now, poaching other teams for unhappy kids who might catch lightning in a bottle with a new team for one season. This is why teams have very little depth; unhappy subs are constantly transferring. The grass is always greener somewhere else.


But what do these kids do when they become adults and join the real world? Reinhardt isn’t an NBA player, so he’ll play in Europe for a while then have to find a real job. He’ll have a boss and a wife and kids and he won’t be able to pull up stakes and move every time he is unhappy.


3:50— Houston 82, Rhode Island 77— Danny Hurley’s team is banged-up and having trouble on the road. This game had the feel of an NIT first-round game in March.


Meanwhile, Wisconsin went on a 26-8 run and is up 15 at Marquette. Just because you sit next to Mike Krzyzewski and played for him doesn’t mean you can coach like him.


In one 3-game stretch in November, Maryland’s football team was outscored 149-13; how in the name of Ralph Friedgen are the Terps in a bowl game, much less favored to win it? They play Boston College in a bowl at 2:30 on a Monday afternoon; fitting time slot, at least.


4:16— Wisconsin 93, Marquette 84— Damn. High scoring. Badgers are a veteran team; I’m curious how Greg Gard will fare once these kids are gone and he has to recruit new guys. I’m not judging, just saying this is being done with players Bo Ryan recruited.


Is it fun to be rich? Everyone has problems, rich people’s problems seem better than mine.


Las Vegas Sands Corp. owner Sheldon Adelson lost more than $3 billion in less than an hour this week, after word came from Macau that the government there was reducing the amount of money people can withdraw from one of Macau’s largest banks by 50%.


Because of this rule change, stock in Macau’s casinos dipped so much that Adelson’s stake was worth $3.2B less than it had been an hour earlier. The guy is still worth $29B, so not like he has to panhandle for food, but minus-$3.2B is still a rough couple of hours.


This all has to do with Chinese people wanting to gamble in Macau and how they withdraw money to do so. They just opened a new Asian-themed casino in Las Vegas, that also caters to Chinese clientele.


5:35— Duke was killing UNLV 20-3, it is 20-7 now. Rebels are basically an expansion team; when they hired Marvin Menzies, think he had four players on the roster, so this is a total rebuild- they’re in way over their head today, getting 24.5 points down the street from their own campus.


Dick Vitale is doing this game; it is tough for me to listen to him anymore. He is talking about 1990 and the Tarkanian years— that era is long gone and ain’t ever coming back. Menzies will build this roster up and UNLV will be a solid mid-major, but no more Final Fours.


Wichita State 53, Oklahoma 50— 9:10 left. Good ballgame with March implications.
Butler 44, Cincinnati 39— 15:00 left. Big East-AAC games are always interesting. Still makes me laugh that there are Big EAST teams in Cincinnati, Indy, Milwaukee and Omaha.


6:05— Duke 42-26 at the half and UNLV’s kids are playing their butts off. One thing Vitale was talking about that has some merit; making it six fouls for a college player to foul out. Think the game would be better that way.


Wichita State beats Oklahoma 76-73; Doug Gottlieb had this one right. ESPN messed up when they let Gottlieb bolt for CBS. He is a better analyst than Jay Bilas and more personable.


This game pushed the spread when the Wichita kid made a foul shot he was trying to miss with 0:00.5 left and Shockers up by 2.


Army 21, Navy 17— Cadets win this rivalry game for first time in 15 years.


8:00— Duke 94, UNLV 45— If I’m Marvin Menzies, next time he makes recruiting calls, the term “…..immediate playing time is available” would be used. A lot. It is an effective phrase.


8:30— It bugs me that the Heisman Trophy has an actual hour-long TV program to give out an award when it takes 90 seconds to announce the winner. Guess people are stupid enough to buy commercial time, so they have the program and it makes money. Why?


9:00— Halftime: Michigan 50, UCLA 50— Outstanding game.


Lamar Jackson won the Heisman Trophy. Good for him.


I’m off to go have dinner and watch some more games. Have a nice day.
 

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NFL Week 14: Keys to all games
December 10, 2016



Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) at Buffalo Bills (6-6)


KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, New Era Field. TV: CBS, Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson.


SERIES HISTORY: 22nd regular-season meeting. Steelers lead series, 13-8. The last time the Steelers played in Buffalo, they pulled out a 19-16 overtime victory, a game remembered in Buffalo for a dropped pass in the end zone by a wide-open Stevie Johnson that would have given the win to the Bills, and then Johnson asking God why he let Johnson down like that. Pittsburgh won the last meeting, in 2013 at Heinz Field, 23-10.


GAMEDATE: 12/11/16


KEYS TO THE GAME: After three consecutive wins, the Steelers are in contention for the AFC North division title and a playoff berth. One reason for the late-season turnaround is a stingy defense. They are only 19th in the league against the pass and 14th in total defense, but seventh in the most important stat, points allowed, at 19.7 per game.


Unlike the struggling Bills, the Steelers control their path to the playoffs. If they win their remaining four games, they are in.


The Steelers' No. 1 task this Sunday will be stopping the Bills' running game, which leads the league with 162 yards per game after registering 212 last week against Oakland. That infantry is led by LeSean McCoy, who has 949 yards at 5.5 per try.


The Bills will certainly lean on the run to control the ball and keep Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger and his potent offense off the field. Three times this year the Bills have topped 200 yards rushing (one game was a 313-yard performance) and McCoy's backup, Mike Gillislee, averages a whopping 6.4 yards per carry.


When the Steelers have the ball, not only must Buffalo try to cover Pittsburgh's great receiver, Antonio Brown, but try to match up against the running and receiving of versatile Le'Veon Bell.


MATCHUPS TO WATCH:


--Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell vs. Bills linebackers. One of the things that makes Bell so great is his ability to wait for a crease to open and then burst through. The Bills are stout up the middle with DTs Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus, so Bell will probably need to bounce some runs outside. If he does, Preston Brown and Zach Brown will be put to the test, and the issue for them is that neither is very good at shedding blockers. That may be just enough for Bell to break some big runs.


--Bills RB LeSean McCoy vs. Steelers LB Ryan Shazier. McCoy is a dual threat out of the backfield. In addition to rushing for 949 yards this season, he also has 35 receptions, including seven against the Raiders last week. Shazier has been a big part of the improving defense and often draws the assignment of covering running backs out of the backfield.


FRIDAY INJURY REPORT


PITTSBURGH STEELERS


--Out: WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (foot), S Shamarko Thomas (concussion)


--Doubtful: DT Javon Hargrave (concussion)


--Questionable: K Chris Boswell (abdomen), G Ramon Foster (chest), RB DeAngelo Williams (knee)


BUFFALO BILLS


--Out: LB Lerentee McCray (concussion)


--Questionable: TE Charles Clay (knee), T Cordy Glenn (back), WR Sammy Watkins (foot), DT Kyle Williams (back), WR Robert Woods (knee)


PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Bills S Sean Davis. The rookie second-round pick is starting to come into his own and become a playmaker at strong safety. He recorded his first interception of the season against the Giants on Sunday and also led the team with seven tackles. He should be a central figure in the game against the Bills, who have the No. 2 rushing offense in the NFL.


FAST FACTS: In the last four games, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger amassed 1,085 yards passing, 8 TD passes and one interception. ... Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell seeks his fifth consecutive game with at least 100 yards from scrimmage and leads the NFL with 146.4 scrimmage yards per game. He is second among NFL RBs with 63 catches. ... Steelers WR Antonio Brown leads the NFL with 11 TD catches and is tied for the league lead with 88 receptions. ... Steelers LB James Harrison has five sacks in the last five games, not bad for a 38-year-old who almost retired two years back. ... Bills QB Tyrod Taylor has three TD passes, two TDs rushing in the last three home games. Since 2015, he is the only NFL QB with 5,000 yards passing (5,327) and 1,000 yards rushing (1,037). ... Bills RB LeSean McCoy aims for a third consecutive game over 100 rushing yards. ... Bills DT Marcell Dareus had a sack and a forced fumble in the last meeting and has 3.5 sacks in the past four games. ... Bills LB Zach Brown is one of two players in NFL with more than 100 tackles (116).


PREDICTION: The Steelers appear to be on a mission to roll into the playoffs in high gear. QB Ben Roethlisberger can pick apart any defense with WR Antonio Brown and RB Le'Veon Bell.


OUR PICK: Steelers, 28-17.


--Frank Cooney


San Diego Chargers (5-7) at Carolina Panthers (4-8)


KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Bank of America Stadium. TV: FOX, Sam Rosen, Brady Quinn, Jennifer Hale.


SERIES HISTORY: Sixth regular-season meeting. Panthers lead series, 4-1. Carolina has won two straight, both in San Diego. Sunday will be the first meeting in Charlotte since 2004.


GAMEDATE: 12/11/16


KEYS TO THE GAME: Residual reaction to Tie-gate continued through Wednesday, when Panthers QB Cam Newton usually speaks to the media. He did not, thereby avoiding questions about his being benched for the first play against the Seattle Seahawks. Coach Ron Rivera sat the 2015 NFL MVP for not wearing a tie, per pre-game dress code. Backup QB Derek Anderson's game-opening pass bounced off fullback Mike Tolbert and was intercepted. The Seahawks won, 40-7. Rivera pleaded Wednesday to "move forward and start focusing on the Chargers."


The Panthers have struggled to run the ball for more than a month, and that may not change against San Diego's third-ranked run defense. So this one could be on the arm of Newton, who needs to take advantage of a Chargers pass defense that ranks 27th. As long as Newton's makeshift offensive line can keep him upright, there will be chunks of yards there for the taking.


For San Diego, usually reliable QB Philip Rivers has been uncharacteristically careless with the football. Every interception has a story but it's been a tale of two halves lately for the Rivers -- his interceptions are piling up in the final 30 minutes of games; he had two more last Sunday.


So, to take the pressure off Rivers, the Chargers need to lean on RB Melvin Gordon more often. Gordon had 10 carries in the second half last week, despite the Chargers having the lead for the majority of it. The Panthers are giving up nearly 108 rushing yards per game, but starting linebacker Luke Kuechly is expected to return from concussion protocol although he was listed as questionable in Friday injury report..


MATCHUPS TO WATCH:


--Chargers TE Antonio Gates vs. Panthers LB Luke Kuechly. Kuechly is expected to return from a concussion after a two-game absence. Gates, in his 14th season, is still going strong, although maybe not as fast. The Panthers have been gashed by opposing TEs -- with or without Kuechly -- and Gates is a dangerous target for QB Philip Rivers.


--Panthers' offensive line vs. Chargers DE Joey Bosa. Carolina's O-line allowed no sacks against the Seahawks. Bosa has 5.5 sacks and seven QB hits in his first eight games. The Panthers used plenty of max protection to keep QB Cam Newton clean in Seattle and Bosa will be a handful for a banged-up line.


FRIDAY INJURY REPORT


SAN DIEGO CHARGERS


--Out: CB Brandon Flowers (concussion)


--Questionable: LB Jatavis Brown (knee), G Orlando Franklin (knee)


CAROLINA PANTHERS


--Out: DE Charles Johnson (hamstring), LB David Mayo (concussion), T Daryl Williams (ankle)


--Questionable: DE Mario Addison (foot), S Kurt Coleman (concussion), LB Luke Kuechly (concussion), CB Daryl Worley (concussion)


PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Panthers C Tyler Larsen. Undrafted out of Utah State in 2014, Larsen wasn't even on a practice squad the past two seasons. But he's turned what was likely his final chance into a season-ending audition. In his first career start, Larsen was part of a line that held the Seahawks without a sack; and, with the Panthers' top two centers on injured reserve, Larsen is set to play four more games in the middle of the line.


FAST FACTS: Chargers QB Philip Rivers has thrown two or more touchdown passes in each of the last five games, which is tied for the third-longest active streak in the league and is also tied for the second-longest streak of his career. His longest streak of multi-touchdown games was seven, set in September-October 2014. ... Chargers RB Melvin Gordon, who ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing, needs eight yards to reach the 1,000-yard mark. Gordon is averaging 155 scrimmage yards per game since Week 8, the highest mark in the league. ... Panthers QB Cam Newton has completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes in each of his last three games, which is a career high, or low. The last quarterback to make at least 25 attempts and complete fewer than half of them in four or more straight games was Andrew Luck in December 2012 (five straight). ... Carolina WR Ted Ginn Jr. aims for a fourth consecutive game with a TD catch.


PREDICTION: This is a sad state of affairs for two of the more dynamic QBs in the NFL. Rivers is still capable of beating any team if he stops throwing them the ball, but Newton won't need to dress to impress as he seeks respect in a home game


OUR PICK: Panthers, 32-28.


--Frank Cooney

Cincinnati Bengals (4-7-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-12)



KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FirstEnergy Stadium. TV: CBS, Andrew Catalon, Steve Tasker, Steve Beuerlein.


SERIES HISTORY: 87th meeting. Cincinnati leads the series 47-39, including wins in the past four meetings. The Bengals are 18-24 as the road club. Cincinnati owns a 19-8 record against the Browns during coach Marvin Lewis' tenure.


GAMEDATE: 12/11/16


KEYS TO THE GAME: The Bengals don't want to be the first team to lose to the Browns in more than a year.


Robert Griffin III might just give Cleveland hope of finding the win column for only the third time in nearly 750 days. He's certainly more of a threat than the Bengals faced in the first meeting this season, in which rookie Cody Kessler left with a concussion and gave way to another rookie, Kevin Hogan.


Players in Cincinnati confess they are sensing pressure playing a winless team coached by former offensive coordinator Hue Jackson.


"You don't want to be the team to help them stop their streak," said defensive end Carlos Dunlap. "For us it's an AFC North game, against one of our old coaches. We know it's personal for him and we're going to approach it that way."


It was clear that Bengals players believe the team needs to prepare for anything this week from Jackson's Browns.


Cleveland also will have two of its top defensive playmakers back in LB Jamie Collins and CB Joe Haden, neither of whom played in the Bengals' 31-17 win in October.


Cincinnati is coming off its most complete performance of the season in last week's 32-14 win over the Philadelphia Eagles. With wide receiver A.J. Green not expected to play due to a hamstring strain, they'll feed running back Jeremy Hill, who has averaged 116.5 yards in four career meetings.


Griffin hasn't played since Week 1, but the Browns are ready to give him another shot at the helm after losing 11 in a row with a revolving door at quarterback.


He carried the ball five times in the opener and was injured on an 11-yard scramble, but the threat of Griffin on the move could be the Browns' best weapon.


MATCHUPS TO WATCH:


--Bengals WR Brandon LaFell vs. Browns CB Joe Haden. There's no A.J. Green to contend with so, depending on matchups, the veteran Haden will get LaFell or one of the Bengals' young receivers. Haden didn't play when the teams met in October.


--Browns RB Isaiah Crowell vs. Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict. Cleveland wants to win at a slow, methodical pace; but, with a 30th-ranked third-down offense, the strategy demands success on first and second downs. Burfict missed the first four games but leads the team in tackles.


FRIDAY INJURY REPORT


CINCINNATI BENGALS


--Out: DE Wallace Gilberry (calf), WR A.J. Green (hamstring), S Derron Smith (thigh), TE C.J. Uzomah (calf), WR James Wright (knee)


--Questionable: LS Clark Harris (groin)


CLEVELAND BROWNS


No players listed


PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Browns OG Jonathan Cooper. The 2013 first-round draft pick by the Arizona Cardinals is ready to make his first start at right guard for the Browns. The Browns have given up a league-high 45 sacks and Cincinnati's defensive muscle is in the line.


"I'll step in and do the best I can to help the team however I can," Cooper said. "Do I feel like the weight of the world is on my shoulders specifically? No. I'm only one person. I know as long as we work together and continue to improve as a unit, the sky's the limit."


Cooper is starting because John Greco is out for the rest of the season with a foot injury. Bengals DL Geno Atkins is one of the best defensive tackles in the league.


FAST FACTS: The Bengals have won four consecutive meetings. ... Cleveland has lost 17 straight games dating back to last season. Bengals QB Andy Dalton has seven TD passes, zero interceptions and a passer rating of 137.3 in the past three meetings with the Browns.


PREDICTION: If not now, when? The Browns will come out swinging and take down the Bengals to avoid going winless in 2016. But it won't be easy.


OUR PICK: Browns, 23-20.


--Jeff Reynolds


Chicago Bears (3-9) at Detroit Lions (8-4)


KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Ford Field. TV: CBS, Spero Dedes, Solomon Wilcots.


SERIES HISTORY: 173rd regular-season meeting. Bears lead the series, 97-71-5. The Bears beat the Lions in the last meeting on Oct. 2, 17-14. One memorable matchup between these two teams was in 2010, when the Bears beat the Lions 19-14 in the season opener after Calvin Johnson had a late touchdown catch nullified because he "didn't complete the process of the catch."


GAMEDATE: 12/11/16


KEYS TO THE GAME: The Bears can't count on Lions QB Matthew Stafford throwing two interceptions right to them as he did in the first game between these teams. The Bears need to challenge the Lions' receivers with man-to-man coverage and mix in more blitzes than they've shown in the past to keep Stafford off stride.


This will put more pressure on inexperienced safeties such as Deon Bush, so the pass rush needs to be effective helping the secondary. The Lions have no real running game, so blitzing and playing man-to-man against a quarterback who isn't known for great mobility makes all the more sense. A strong interior pass rush is needed again from Akiem Hicks. He had a big game last week, with two sacks, and pressure up the middle is one of the best ways to force Stafford into mistakes.


This is Bears QB Matt Barkley's first start on the road; and, to keep him comfortable, Chicago will need to get running back Jordan Howard moving early and often. Barkley isn't mobile and the Bears were able to keep Detroit's defense off balance last time by moving Brian Hoyer around in the pocket or moving the pocket entirely. So this will be more difficult to do. Without a running game, it will be almost impossible to do.


The Lions struggled to move the ball in their first meeting. They had 11 yards on their first four possessions and ran for just 66 yards in the game, and Stafford threw those two interceptions. The Lions want to get on the scoreboard early and force an ill-equipped Bears team to play from behind.


Defensively, the Lions' focus will be on stopping rookie running back Jordan Howard and making sure Eddie Royal doesn't have another big game.


MATCHUPS TO WATCH:


--Lions OG/C Graham Glasgow vs. Bears DL Akiem Hicks. Center Travis Swanson is out (concussion). If Swanson can't play, Glasgow will slide over to center from his left guard spot for the first time this year. Hicks is coming off a monster 10-tackle, two-sack game, and he had a sack on Matthew Stafford in the first meeting. He rushes from all over the line and will be a bear for the rookie to handle.


--Lions S Rafael Bush vs. Bears WR Eddie Royal. Adairius Barnes should play as the Lions' third cornerback with Quandre Diggs out for the season, but Bush is the third safety in the Lions' big nickel package and will see the field plenty this week. He has two key interceptions this year. The bears hoped to isolate Bush on Royalm but Royal is doubtful with a toe injury. Royal had seven catches for 111 yards and a touchdown in the Week 4 meeting.


FRIDAY INJURY REPORT


CHICAGO BEARS


--Doubtful: T Mike Adams (back), WR Eddie Royal (toe)


--Questionable: LB Jonathan Anderson (hamstring), CB Johnthan Banks (ankle), WR Josh Bellamy (shoulder), WR Marquess Wilson (groin)


DETROIT LIONS


--Out: C Travis Swanson (concussion)


--Questionable: DE Ezekiel Ansah (ankle), S Don Carey (hamstring), TE Eric Ebron (knee), WR Marvin Jones (quadricep), LB DeAndre Levy (knee), RB Theo Riddick (wrist), RB Dwayne Washington (ankle), LB Tahir Whitehead (knee)


PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Bears DE Akiem Hicks. He is a steady performer at defensive end and provided an interior pass rush when nose tackle Eddie Goldman missed more than half the season with an injury. Hicks has had to be versatile throughout his career, but his height and overall size made him a better fit in the Bears' 3-4, and they already had drafted Goldman the previous year to be at nose.


FAST FACTS: Bears QB Matt Barkley had career-high 97.5 passer rating last week. ... Bears rookie RB Jordan Howard rushed for 117 yards and three TDs in Week 13 and became the fifth rookie in Bears history with three rushing TDs in a game. He ranks second among rookie RBs with 883 yards rushing and five TDs on the ground. ... Bears DE Akiem Hicks has four sacks and a forced fumble in the last four games. ... Lions QB Matthew Stafford has 916 passing yards and seven TDs in the past three games vs. the Bears. ... Detroit WR Anquan Bolden has TD catches in six home games with the Lions. Since entering the NFL in 2003, he ranks third with 13,627 yards receiving.


PREDICTION: The Lions are in the playoff chase, the Bears are not and this game in Detroit should show why. Chicago is 0-6 on the road this season and probably will not avoid losing its first seven road games in a season for the third time in franchise history (1969 and 1974).


OUR PICK: Lions, 38-21.


--Frank Cooney


Houston Texans (6-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-6)


KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Lucas Oil Stadium. TV: CBS, Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon.


SERIES HISTORY: 30th regular-season meeting. Colts lead series, 23-6. Indianapolis is 13-1 against the Texans in home games (6-0 at the Hoosier/RCA Dome and 7-1 at Lucas Oil Stadium) and 10-5 in road matchups (all games played at Reliant/NFG Stadium). The Colts have won eight of the last 13 meetings with Houston but have lost the last two contests. The Texans had not won a game in Indianapolis until last season's triumph. The Colts have swept the series nine times while Houston has never swept the series. Indianapolis won the first nine games of the series before losing and then ran off another six-game winning streak.


GAMEDATE: 12/11/16


KEYS TO THE GAME: When it comes to deciding the AFC South, the playoffs begin this weekend. Three teams are tied for first place, each with a 6-6 record -- Indianapolis, Houston and Tennessee.


With the possibility of any of those three teams earning wild-card postseason spots pretty much out of the question, only the AFC South winner will make the playoffs.


The Colts already swept their home-and-home series with the Titans. Indianapolis, however, lost its only other meeting with the Texans, dropping a 26-23 road game in overtime on Oct. 16.


Tennessee has a home game with Denver and a road trip to Kansas City over the next two weeks. So, with the Colts and Texans scheduled to face off Sunday afternoon at Lucas Oil Stadium, the game will have a definite postseason feel.


Indianapolis had success with its newfound aggressiveness on both sides of the ball in the win over the Jets. That game plan is expected to continue Sunday against Houston.


The Colts have been taking more shots downfield offensively and getting the ball into the end zone. Indianapolis is also getting the tight end much more involved in the team's passing attack.


Defensively, the Colts will have to dial up some pressure against Houston quarterback Brock Osweiler in an attempt to force turnovers and bad plays. Indianapolis will try to set the tone better defensively than the team did in the earlier loss to the Texans. In that game, Osweiler engineered a dramatic 26-23 comeback victory in overtime Oct. 16.


Osweiler has completed 59.8 percent of his throws for 2,509 yards and 14 touchdowns. He is keenly aware he needs to play the way he did in the first game against the Colts with the season on the line.


"This is the biggest game of our season," Osweiler said. "I'm viewing our season right now as a one-game season, and it's one game we must win. I think our entire football team understands that. There's great urgency in this building right now and it's reflected at practice."


The Texans are averaging just 13.2 points per game on the road, the worst in the NFL. Meanwhile, although the Colts are averaging 29.3 points on the road, they are scoring just 22.5 at home. That 6.8-point drop-off at home is the biggest in the league.


MATCHUPS TO WATCH:


--Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. Colts CB Vontae Davis. Hopkins caught his first touchdown pass in six games against the Packers. He is still a dangerous threat despite his reduced production overall. Davis is a strong, physical cornerback.


--Colts QB Andrew Luck vs. Texans CB A.J. Bouye. Bouye is having a breakthrough season and is primed to cash in as a free agent. Luck comes into the Houston game with 3,105 yards, 23 TDs and eight interceptions. He has connected on 64 percent of his passes but has been sacked a league-leading 36 times. The Texans are ranked fifth in the league in pass defense, allowing 208.4 yards per game.


FRIDAY INJURY REPORT


HOUSTON TEXANS


--Out: RB Tyler Ervin (ribs), WR Braxton Miller (shoulder), QB Tom Savage (right elbow), LB John Simon (chest), WR Jaelen Strong (ankle)


--Questionable: DE Jadeveon Clowney (elbow, wrist), LB Brian Cushing (back, ankle), CB Johnathan Joseph (ribs)


INDIANAPOLIS COLTS


--Out: S Clayton Geathers (neck), T Denzelle Good (concussion), DT Zach Kerr (concussion), LB Robert Mathis (bicep), CB Patrick Robinson (groin)


--Questionable: LB Curt Maggitt (concussion)


PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Colts RB Robert Turbin. Turbin has filled his role as the primary backup to Frank Gore. Since signing with the Colts in the offseason, the former Dallas and Seattle running back has become a valuable short-yardage and red-zone producer. He had a touchdown run against the Jets on Monday night. Turbin has four TD runs, which ties for the team lead with Gore.


FAST FACTS: Texans QB Brock Osweiler is 3-0 as starter vs. division in 2016 and threw for 2 TDs and 97.6 passer rating last week. ... Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins has 28 catches for 334 yards in the past three meetings. ... Texans LB Whitney Mercilus has five TFL, a sack and a fumble recovery in the last two games. ... Texans LB Benardrick McKinney is the only player in the NFL with 100 tackles (106) and at least four sacks (four). ... Colts QB Andrew Luck is a native of Houston, where he played at Stratford High School before going to Stanford. Luck is 5-2 against his hometown Texans, throwing for 1,637 yards, 15 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has been sacked 19 times in seven games. ... Colts WR T.Y. Hilton ranks second in the NFL with 1,088 yards receiving. ... Colts LB Robert Mathis has the most sacks (18.5) by any player vs. the Texans, including a sack in three of the past four meetings. He is the franchise leader with 121 sacks.


PREDICTION: While much attention is on Raiders-Chiefs and Cowboys-Giants this week, here is a game that may be key in putting one of these teams in the playoffs. The loser is probably out. The Colts have the advantage at home with the more experienced QB.


OUR PICK: Colts, 28-21.


--Frank Cooney


Minnesota Vikings (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)


KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, EverBank Field. TV: FOX, Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Laura Okmin.


SERIES HISTORY: Sixth meeting. Minnesota leads the series, 4-1. Jacksonville's only win came in 2001, a 33-3 win in Minneapolis. The Vikings are one of just two NFL teams (New England) that the Jaguars have not beaten at home. Last meeting between the teams was on Sept. 9, 2012, in Minneapolis with the Vikings winning 26-23 in overtime.


GAMEDATE: 12/11/16


KEYS TO THE GAME: First, let's get the report from Minnesota's busy infirmary. After four eye surgeries this season, coach Mike Zimmer can fly with the team to coach in Jacksonville, although probably from the coaching box above the field. Versatile safety Harrison Smith is probably lost for the season with an ankle injury. And superstar running back Adrian Peterson says he can return to action (knee surgery), but only if the Vikings are in the playoff picture.


That probably means there is a slim chance he will return this year and a good chance he will be released before the third day of the 2017 NFL year or the team will owe him $6 million.


As far as the game at Jacksonville is concerned, the absence of Smith is most important. His replacement could be rookie Jayron Kearse, second-year pro Anthony Harris or even starting cornerback Terence Newman, who shifted to safety a year ago when Smith missed the game at Arizona.


In stats that may matter, the Vikings head into the game with the fourth-ranked scoring defense (17.4) and the second-ranked turnover margin (plus-13). The Jaguars have the 27th-ranked scoring offense (18.7) and are last in turnover margin (minus-18), giveaways (25) and interceptions thrown (18).


Both quarterbacks are on the hot seat.


The Vikings gave up a lot now and in the future to get QB Sam Bradford after Teddy Bridgewater went out with a major knee injury.. But Bradford has not proven to be the answer to the Vikings' offensive woes as the team ranks 25th in passing and 26th in scoring. Bradford has had moments, including five games in which he has passed for over 260 yards.


Jaguars QB Blake Bortles has done little to go forward in recent games, and Jacksonville's record reflects it -- the Jags are on a seven-game losing streak. In his last five outings, Bortles has thrown for fewer than 250 yards each game.


This Sunday he goes against a Vikings secondary that is ranked No. 4 in the league for allowing the fewest passing yards. If the Vikings shut down Bortles for yet another week, the Jaguars likely will notch a franchise-record-tying eighth consecutive loss.


MATCHUPS TO WATCH:


--Jaguars RT Jermey Parnell vs. Vikings DE Danielle Hunter. Last week Parnell encountered Denver's Von Miller, who came into the game leading the NFL with 12.5 sacks. Miller made just three tackles and had no sacks until late in the game when he pushed Parnell into Blake Bortles, causing him to fumble. Parnell allowed four sacks in losses to Oakland, Tennessee and Kansas City, but hasn't allowed a sack in his last four games. Hunter has 9.5 sacks this year, eighth best in the NFL.


--Vikings OTs Jeremiah Sirles and T.J. Clemmings vs. Jaguars LEO Yannick Ngakoue. In coach Gus Bradley's defense, the LEO position is the weakside edge rusher. The team found a good one in Ngakoue in the third round this year. After 13.5 sacks as a senior at Maryland, Ngakoue has a team-high six for Jacksonville. He's a 6-2, 252-pounder with 4.75 speed. He could present difficulties for Sirles on the right side and Clemmings on the left. Both players were backups at the start of the season. They struggle with edge rushers and even committed three false start penalties at home against the Cowboys last week.


FRIDAY INJURY REPORT


MINNESOTA VIKINGS


--Out: C Joe Berger (concussion), DT Sharrif Floyd (knee), S Harrison Smith (ankle)


--Questionable: LB Edmond Robinson (hamstring), CB Marcus Sherels (rib)


JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS


--Out: WR Allen Hurns (hamstring), DE Jared Odrick (shoulder), RB Denard Robinson (ankle), TE Julius Thomas (back), S Peyton Thompson (ankle)


--Questionable: RB Chris Ivory (hamstring), G Brandon Linder (ankle), LB Dan Skuta (elbow)


PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Vikings DE Danielle Hunter. The second-year pro might be the best athlete on a team that includes Adrian Peterson. He is a physical marvel that the Vikings stole in the third round because of how raw he was at LSU. He developed more quickly than expected and is proving to be unblockable at times. He has 15.5 sacks the past two years, including a team-high 9.5 this season. He doesn't start, but does play a lot. Typically, the Vikings put him at left end in passing situations. When that happens, starting left end Brian Robison moves to a two-point stance and rushes from an interior spot on the left or right side.


FAST FACTS: Vikings QB Sam Bradford passed for 222 yards and three TDs in the only career meeting. He ranks second in the NFL in completion percentage (71.2). Bradford established season highs last week when he attempted 45 passes and completed 32. But the Vikings are 5-0 this season when Bradford attempts no more than 36 passes (starts only), compared to 0-6 when he throws at least 37 times. ... Vikings WR Stefon Diggs caught eight more passes last week and leads the NFL with 48 receptions since Week 8. For the season, Diggs is averaging 7.5 receptions per game, the third-highest rate in Vikings history. Only Cris Carter, who averaged 7.6 catches per game in both 1994 and 1995, has had a higher rate for Minnesota. ... Jaguars QB Blake Bortles completed only 45.2 percent of his passes last week, a season low, and compiled a passer rating of 37.9, a career low. He also threw the 11th pick-6 of his career, a total that tops the league since Bortles debuted in 2014.


PREDICTION: As long as they can stay healthy enough to play the game, the Vikings and their coach should eye a victory over a Jaguars team that has a long way to go before it is competitive in the NFL.


OUR PICK: Vikings, 28-14.


--Frank Cooney


Arizona Cardinals (5-6-1) at Miami Dolphins (7-5)


KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Hard Rock Stadium. TV: FOX, Chris Myers, Ronde Barber, Holly Sonders.


SERIES HISTORY: 12th regular-season meeting. The Dolphins hold an 8-3 edge in the all-time series, although the Cardinals have won the last three matchups. Three of the last four games have been decided by three points or fewer. This is the Cardinals' first visit to Miami since 2004. In that game, Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald finished with five catches for 92 yards to begin his active streak of catching at least one pass in 191 consecutive games, which ranks third on the all-time list. Fitzgerald caught a touchdown pass in that game with 19 seconds remaining to secure a 24-23, come-from-behind victory. The All-Pro wideout is the only player on either roster that played in that game.


GAMEDATE: 12/11/16


KEYS TO THE GAME: Miami had its six-game win streak snapped with a 38-6 loss at Baltimore last week. The 32-point losing margin was the Dolphins' largest since 2012 (Titans, 37-3), while the Ravens' 38 points, 496 total yards, and 386 net passing yards were all season highs for a Miami opponent.


Arizona moved within a game of .500 (5-6-1) with a 31-23 home victory over the Redskins on Sunday. While the Cardinals are unbeaten in their last four home games (3-0-1), they are 0-3 in their last three road contests, and just 1-4 on the road for the season. Arizona was 7-1 in road games in 2015.


The Cardinals had 11 players listed on their injury report on Wednesday, although three of them -- quarterback Carson Palmer, wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald and defensive tackle Frostee Rucker -- were each given a veteran's day off to rest and were not injury related.


Missing practice due to injuries were receiver John Brown (illness), linebacker Markus Golden (hamstring), safety Tyrann Mathieu (shoulder), who was ruled out Friday, and cornerback Tharold Simon (ankle). Listed as limited were cornerback Justin Bethel (foot/knee), defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche (elbow), defensive tackle Corey Peters (foot) and cornerback Patrick Peterson (knee).


In a game where both teams like to control things with a running game, this is not a good matchup for Miami. Arizona is No. 3 in time of possession (31:37) while the Dolphins are 28th; Cardinals running back David Johnson is No. 3 in rushing at 1,005 yards while the Dolphins are 30th in run defense at 130.3; Arizona is No. 2 in total defense while the Dolphins are 25th in offense.


The Cardinals do not take chances when an opponent has a stud receiver who constantly makes big plays, so cornerback Patrick Peterson will shadow Jarvis Landry to make sure Miami's biggest receiving threat doesn't doom Arizona. Peterson has won most of his individual matchups when he travels against an opponent's No. 1 wideout.


The right side of the Cardinals' reshuffled offensive line, consisting of right guard John Wetzel and right tackle Ulrick John, must come up with a way to neutralize Miami defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who could blow things up for the Dolphins if the Cardinals aren't careful.


MATCHUPS TO WATCH:


--Cardinals RB David Johnson vs. Dolphins run defense. The run defense gets the focus because Johnson is No. 3 in the NFL with 1,005 rushing yards and the Dolphins are 30th in run defense at 130.3 yards per game. But this could be expanded to Miami's entire defense. Johnson has at least 100 yards from scrimmage in all 12 games this season, so he's also a receiving threat. But with the Dolphins it all starts with stopping the run so they can unleash the pass rush on third down.


--Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald vs. Dolphins DB Bobby McCain. You won't see this matchup all the time because Arizona moves Fitzgerald around, but the future Hall of Famer will give fits to the young McCain. The Rams picked on McCain and got a crucial penalty in the end zone. Look for Arizona to work McCain and, if things fall apart, it could be very costly because it could shred the pass defense the way Baltimore did last week.


FRIDAY INJURY REPORT


ARIZONA CARDINALS


--Out: S Tyrann Mathieu (shoulder)


--Questionable: WR John Brown (illness), LB Markus Golden (hamstring),


MIAMI DOLPHINS


--Out: C Mike Pouncey (hip)


--Doubtful: LB Kiko Alonso (hand, hamstring), LB Jelani Jenkins (knee, hand), DE Mario Williams (ankle)


--Questionable: S Isa Abdul-Quddus (neck), T Branden Albert (wrist), RB Kenyan Drake (knee), CB Xavien Howard (knee), DT Earl Mitchell (back), QB Matt Moore (right shoulder), WR DeVante Parker (back), LB Spencer Paysinger (ankle), G Anthony Steen (shoulder, foot), C Kraig Urbik (knee)


PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Cardinals QB Carson Palmer. He has taken the lion's share of the blame for the Cardinals' inauspicious 5-6-1 record thus far, but he is quietly posting very good numbers and results despite the team's record. He is piling up 300-yard games and, with his next one, will tie Kurt Warner with his 22nd, the most in franchise history. With two more TD passes, Palmer also will tie Warner (3) and Neil Lomax (3) as the only players in team history to pass for 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns in three seasons.


FAST FACTS: Cardinals QB Carson Palmer had exactly 300 yards passing last week vs. Washington, his 48th career 300-yard game. He has 21 as a member of the Cardinals, one shy of Kurt Warner's franchise record of 22. ... Cardinals RB David Johnson is the second player in NFL history to gain 100 yards from scrimmage in each of his team's first 12 games. Edgerrin James did it with the Colts in 2005 (first 13 games) and 2000 (first 12). Johnson's 1,709 yards (1,005 rushing, 704 receiving) are the most in the NFL. ... Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill tied a career high with three interceptions last week vs. the Ravens (done five times previously). He was intercepted just once total during Miami's six-game win streak. ... Miami DE Cameron Wake had a franchise-record 4.5 sacks in the last meeting. He has 7.5 sacks in the past seven games and is second among active players with 78.5 sacks since 2009.


PREDICTION: Neither team is to be trusted, but Miami may be able to pull together at home following last week's embarrassing loss at Baltimore.


OUR PICK: Dolphins, 28-21.


--Frank Cooney


Washington Redskins (6-5-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)


KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Lincoln Financial Field. TV: FOX, Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch, Pam Oliver.


SERIES HISTORY: 164th regular-season meeting. Washington leads the all-time series, 84-73-5. A win would give the Redskins five consecutive for the first time since a six-game streak between 1981 and 1984. The Redskins won 27-20 at FedEx Field on Oct. 16.


GAMEDATE: 12/11/16


KEYS TO THE GAME: The Redskins were stable on the offensive line almost all season, even during the loss of Pro Bowl LT Trent Williams (four-game suspension) because Washington had a competent replacement in Ty Nsekhe. Williams returns this week just in time. Nsekhe (ankle) missed practice on Wednesday and left guard Shawn Lauvao, who struggled so much in Sunday's loss to Arizona, didn't practice (groin).


Meanwhile, center Spencer Long (concussion) also didn't practice Wednesday. The Redskins plugged in veteran John Sullivan, a six-year starter in Minnesota, and still performed well enough on Sunday. But they are concerned enough that veteran center Kory Lichtensteiger, the starter at the beginning of the season, was designated to return from IR in case Sullivan needs a backup.


The Redskins need to be stout on the interior because the Eagles have players like defensive tackle Fletcher Cox (four sacks), who is still a force despite his production dropping from 9.5 sacks in 2015.


Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins was 18-for-34 for 263 yards in the Redskins' 27-20 win over the Eagles on Oct. 16. Cousins had two touchdowns but has improved since that game.


Eagles rookie QB Carson Wentz threw 60 passes last week against the Bengals and has averaged 44.5 attempts per game the last six games. The large number of attempts has to do with the fact that the Eagles keep falling behind. They hope to establish the run early Sunday against the Redskins and stay with it. The Redskins are 29th in the league against the rush, allowing 4.6 yards per carry.


MATCHUPS TO WATCH:


--Redskins LG Arie Kouandjio vs. Eagles DT Fletcher Cox. Kouandjio is a good bet to play because starter Shawn Lauvao is hurt (groin) and the best alternative -- moving Spencer Long over from center -- is unlikely given Long's concussion on Sunday. Cox has been kept in check because of constant double-teams all season and is frustrated with his production. But Kouandjio, a second-year pro, has started only one game in his career.


--Redskins WR DeSean Jackson vs. Eagles CB Nolan Carroll. Ironic in a week where multiple reports linked Jackson, a free agent at the end of the season, back with Philadelphia. But there are no good options here for the Eagles, whose cornerbacks struggled with confidence lately and now face the NFL's second-best passing offense. Jackson had a 59-yard catch last week against Arizona. Since leaving Philadelphia after the 2013 season, he has 17 catches for 336 yards and a touchdown in four games against the Eagles.


FRIDAY INJURY REPORT


WASHINGTON REDSKINS


--Out: S Will Blackmon (concussion, thumb), DE Anthony Lanier (shin), C Spencer Long (concussion, stinger)


--Questionable: DE Chris Baker (ankle), TE Derek Carrier (knee), LB Will Compton (hip), DE Ricky Jean Francois (foot, knee), G Shawn Lauvao (groin), T Ty Nsekhe (ankle), TE Jordan Reed (shoulder), G Brandon Scherff (ankle), LB Preston Smith (groin)


PHILADELPHIA EAGLES


--Out: T Halapoulivaati Vaitai (knee)


--Questionable: WR Dorial Green-Beckham (abdomen), RB Ryan Mathews (knee), WR Jordan Matthews (ankle)


PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Redskins WR Pierre Garcon. Mr. Reliable for the Redskins, Garcon is in his fifth season in Washington and on his way to at least 68 catches for a fifth time. He has 59, which is tied for the team lead with tight end Jordan Reed. With 714 receiving yards, Garcon is on pace for his best season since 2013, when he had 1,346 yards on 113 catches. Garcon turned 30 in August and is a free agent at the end of the season.


FAST FACTS: In the past nine road games, Redskins QB Kirk Cousins has 2,876 yards passing, 18 TDs and four interceptions. He ranks third in the NFL with 3,811 passing yards. ... Washington RB Robert Kelley is third among NFL rookies with 524 rushing yards. ... Eagles QB Carson Wentz ranks second among NFL rookies with 2,901 yards passing. He tied an NFL rookie record with 36 completions last week.


PREDICTION: The Redskins have won four straight games over the Eagles, their longest winning streak in the series since a four-game streak from 1985 to 1987. The last time Washington won five (or more) in a row against Philadelphia was a six-game streak between 1981 and 1984. They should make it five straight on Sunday.


OUR PICK: Redskins, 42-30.


--Frank Cooney


Denver Broncos (8-4) at Tennessee Titans (6-6)

KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Nissan Stadium. TV: CBS, Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts, Evan Washburn.


SERIES HISTORY: 38th meeting. Broncos lead series, 21-15-1. The Broncos have won four of the last five. The most historic meeting between was on Jan. 4, 1992, when John Elway led "The Drive II," converting two fourth downs to set up David Treadwell's game-winning field goal. The Broncos mashed the Titans in the last meeting, in Denver in 2013. That game is most known for Matt Prater making an NFL-record 64-yard field goal.


GAMEDATE: 12/11/16


KEYS TO THE GAME: It's another week of wait-and-see at quarterback for the Broncos, with another must-win game looming. Starter Trevor Siemian shed the walking boot early this week, but coach Gary Kubiak said he would work both of his top two quarterbacks, and the possibility of going into Tennessee with rookie Paxton Lynch lingers. sIEMIAN WAS LISTED AS QUESTIONABLE fRIDAY.


The Jaguars' offense was ineffective enough to allow the Broncos to withstand Lynch's struggles last week. That almost certainly won't be the case with the Titans.


The Broncos are hoping to get a boost for their injury-plagued running game with the signing of Justin Forsett, who enjoyed his best season in 2014 with Baltimore. The Ravens' offensive coordinator that year? None other than current Denver coach Gary Kubiak.


The Denver defense's strength is against the pass, as teams are enjoying success running the football. That should play into the hands of Titans RBs DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry.


With Murray healthier than he has been in a while after battling turf toe throughout November, he could be primed for a big game. That would allow the Titans to munch on the clock and perhaps diminish Von Miller's opportunities to get after Marcus Mariota.


MATCHUPS TO WATCH:


--Titans defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau vs. Broncos QB Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch. Siemian may not know his status until later in the week after he missed last week with an injured foot. Either way, look for LeBeau to throw exotic looks and blitzes at a young quarterback, whether it be Siemian or first-round pick Lynch.


--Titans LT Taylor Lewan vs. Broncos LB Von Miller. Miller is one of the league's premier pass rushers, and Lewan will have his hands full containing him, despite playing well this season and allowing only one sack. If Lewan can win his share of this battle, it would make things easier for QB Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee offense.


FRIDAY INJURY REPORT


DENVER BRONCOS


--Out: LS Casey Kreiter (calf), LB Brandon Marshall (hamstring)


--Questionable: WR Bennie Fowler (knee), QB Trevor Siemian (foot)


TENNESSEE TITANS


--Questionable: DT Jurrell Casey (foot)


PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Titans RB DeMarco Murray. While Denver has a terrific pass rush and excellent secondary, it is also ranked 28th against the run, allowing 122.8 yards per game. Enter Murray, who has 1,043 yards and is also healthier after battling turf toe in November. If the Titans' O-line can create a new scrimmage line consistently, Murray should have a big day and the impact of the Broncos' pass rush could be reduced.


FAST FACTS: Broncos QB Trevor Siemian threw for 368 yards and three TDs in his last start. He has 10 TDs and three interceptions in five road starts. ... Broncos WR Demaryius Thomas had 88 receiving yards and a TD in the last meeting. Since 2012, he ranks second in the NFL with 468 receptions. He also is one of four players with five TD catches in each of the past five seasons. ... Broncos LB Von Miller leads the NFL with 12.5 sacks. He has 17.5 sacks, 14 tackles for loss, three forced fumbles and an interception in his past 14 games. ... Denver CB Bradley Roby had a 51-yard interception for a TD last week. He and Kansas City's Eric Berry are the only players with two pick-sixes this season. ... Titans QB Marcus Mariota has 21 passing TDs and three INTs in his past eight games. He is tied for fourth in the NFL with 25 passing TDs and ranks fifth with a 101.9 rating. He has thrown at least two TD passes in eight straight games. ... Titans LB Brian Orakpo ranks fifth in the AFC with nine sacks. In his past two games vs. Denver, he has 1.5 sacks, three tackles for loss and a fumble recovery.


PREDICTION: The Titans' offense is rolling, and the defense should benefit from facing Denver's stumbling offense.


OUR PICK: Titans, 24-20.


--Chris Cluff


New York Jets (3-9) at San Francisco 49ers (1-11)


KICKOFF: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Levi's Stadium. TV: CBS, Greg Gumbel, Trent Green, Jamie Erdahl.


SERIES HISTORY: 13th regular-season meeting. 49ers lead series, 10-2. The 49ers won the most recent game, Sept. 30, 2012, when CB Carlos Rogers returned a fumble 54 yards for a touchdown in a 34-0 victory at MetLife Stadium. The most memorable game in the series was played Sept. 6, 1998, when Garrison Hearst scored a 96-yard touchdown in overtime to lift the 49ers to a 36-30 win. It remains the longest overtime touchdown run in NFL history.


GAMEDATE: 12/11/16


KEYS TO THE GAME: Bryce Petty and Colin Kaepernick have been the focus of attention leading into Sunday's game. Don't be surprised, however, if Matt Forte and Carlos Hyde have a greater impact on who wins the battle of last-place teams.


The Jets will be seeking to wash away the embarrassment of a nationally televised blowout while the 49ers attempt to end an 11-game losing streak in a game that figures to greatly aid someone's draft position in May.


Petty was named the starter for the Jets' remaining four games shortly after Monday's 41-10 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. Petty relieved starter Ryan Fitzpatrick for the second half and went 11-for-25 for 135 yards and one touchdown. He threw two interceptions.


Look for lots of work out of the shotgun and plenty of quick passes from Petty. Forte and Bilal Powell have been underused as pass catchers, but this should be a game in which they get plenty of work on dumpoffs and screens.


San Francisco coach Chip Kelly decided to stick with Kaepernick after benching him last week.


The Jets' linebacking corps, shredded by Colts tight end Dwayne Allen for three touchdowns on Monday night, will need to limit Kaepernick's running.


The 49ers need to dominate the line of scrimmage to get their running game going early.


MATCHUPS TO WATCH:


--WR Brandon Marshall vs. CB Tramaine Brock and/or CB Jimmie Ward. Marshall is on pace for just 960 receiving yards and has yet to display any chemistry with new QB Bryce Petty, but this is a get-right spot against a 49ers secondary that has given up 26 passing touchdowns, tied for the second-most in the league. Look for the Jets to exploit the 6-foot-4 Marshall against Brock or Ward, each of whom are listed at smaller than six feet tall.


--49ers QB Colin Kaepernick vs. Jets LB Darron Lee. The Miami Dolphins didn't assign a linebacker to spy Kaepernick two weeks ago, when Kaepernick ran for 113 yards while leading the 49ers within a few yards of an upset victory. Kaepernick's weaponry is decidedly unimposing, so it makes sense for the Jets to try to further limit the 49ers' offense by assigning Lee, their youngest and fastest linebacker, to Kaepernick in the middle of the second level.


FRIDAY INJURY REPORT


NEW YORK JETS


--Out: S Antonio Allen (concussion), T Breno Giacomini (back, calf, shoulder), WR Jalin Marshall (concussion), LB Lorenzo Mauldin (ankle), DT Steve McLendon (hamstring), RB Khiry Robinson (lower leg)


--Questionable: DE Muhammad Wilkerson (ankle)


SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS


--Doubtful: T Joe Staley (hamstring)


--Questionable: DT Quinton Dial (elbow), LB Aaron Lynch (ankle)


PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Jets WR Robby Anderson. New QB Bryce Petty loves Anderson, whom he peppered with 11 targets in the second half of Monday's 41-10 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. Petty completed just four passes to Anderson, though one went for a 40-yard touchdown. Anderson has undeniable deep-threat ability but has a propensity for drops. This is as big a chance for Anderson as it is for Petty to prove he deserves to be a part of the Jets' plans in 2017.


FAST FACTS: Jets QB Bryce Petty passed for 135 yards and a TD in relief Monday. ... Jets RB Matt Forte has 387 scrimmage yards (96.8 per game) and a rushing TD in four games vs. the 49ers. He is one of seven players in NFL history with 9,000 rushing yards (9,386) and 500 receptions (516). ... Jets DT Leonard Williams led the team with 10 tackles and had half a sack last week. He ranks second among NFL defensive tackles with 6.5 sacks. ... 49ers RB Carlos Hyde has returned from a shoulder injury to rush for 86, 65 and 92 yards the last three weeks. The 49ers have amassed 456 rushing yards in those games, the third most in the league behind Buffalo (548) and Seattle (519). . . . In his past two home games, 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick has 604 passing yards, four TDs and one interception. In his past five home games vs. the AFC, he has seven TDs and no interceptions,


PREDICTION: The 49ers have lost their last three home games by an average of 16 points, and Todd Bowles knows Colin Kaepernick well.


OUR PICK: Jets, 17-10.


--Chris Cluff


Seattle Seahawks (8-3-1) at Green Bay Packers (6-6)


KICKOFF: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Lambeau Field. TV: FOX, Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews.


SERIES HISTORY: 17th regular-season meeting. Packers lead series, 9-7. Green Bay won last meeting, 27-17, last year. The home team has won the last four regular-season meetings and all three postseason matchups. Seattle beat the Packers 28-22 in overtime in the 2014 NFC Championship Game.


GAMEDATE: 12/11/16


KEYS TO THE GAME: Now that they're back to .500, the Packers must pass a stringent late-season test to climb all of the way back to the plus side for their record and remain in contention for the NFC North title and a playoff berth. The momentum of two straight wins on the heels of a four-game losing streak will be challenged by the NFC West-leading Seahawks and possibly Mother Nature, with a second straight Sunday of snow showers in Green Bay forecasted.


Points were going to be at a premium anyhow under stellar playing conditions. After all, Seattle has long been the stingiest on the scoreboard, leading the league again this season by allowing an average of only 16.2 points per game.


The Packers' lack of a quality rushing attack could mean Aaron Rodgers will have to try to keep the chains moving against Seattle's talented secondary if he's given time to get the football out in the face of a potent pass rush. The notable loss of All-Pro safety Earl Thomas to a broken leg should leave some soft spots in the middle of Seattle's defense for Rodgers to attack with his receivers and tight ends.


Green Bay's banged-up defense, on the other hand, will be keyed on containing the Seahawks' resurgent rushing attack. Seattle piled up a season-high 240 yards on the ground in its blowout win over the Carolina Panthers last Sunday and is averaging a robust 173 rushing yards the last three outings. Explosive second-year halfback Thomas Rawls is back healthy, and the Seahawks aren't bashful about getting fleet-footed receiver Tyler Lockett the football in the backfield. Then throw in the option reads of quarterback Russell Wilson, who will look to lure Green Bay's defense close to the line of scrimmage to create open passing lanes. The Packers must be disciplined and aggressive with their pass rush against a suspect offensive line.


MATCHUPS TO WATCH:


--Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett vs. Packers CB Quinten Rollins. Lockett had his most productive game of the season last week against the Panthers and will face a Green Bay defense that has struggled against opposing passing attacks the second half of the season.


--Seahawks DE Cliff Avril vs. Packers RT Bryan Bulaga. Bulaga has struggled in past games against Seattle' left end. Whether Chris Clemons, Bruce Irvin or Avril, Bulaga has allowed several sacks and pressures on Aaron Rodgers and could be a battle Seattle can win again.


FRIDAY INJURY REPORT


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS


--Out: LB Brock Coyle (foot), DE Damontre Moore (foot), RB C.J. Prosise (shoulder), RB Will Tukuafu (concussion)


--Questionable: LB Michael Morgan (hip)


GREEN BAY PACKERS


--Out: LB Kyler Fackrell (hamstring), LB Nick Perry (hand)


--Questionable: CB Ladarius Gunter (illness), G T.J. Lang (foot), LB Blake Martinez (knee), LB Clay Matthews (shoulder), CB Damarious Randall (groin, illness), C J.C. Tretter (knee)


PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: FS Steven Terrell. In facing Rodgers and the Packers' passing attack, Terrell will be under the spotlight as he steps into a starting role following the season-ending injury to All-Pro safety Earl Thomas. With games against Los Angeles, Arizona and San Francisco remaining, Terrell may face his toughest test before the playoffs this Sunday.


FAST FACTS: Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has six TD passes and one interception in three career meetings. ... Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin caught seven passes for 92 yards and a score in the last meeting. Since 2015, Baldwin ranks second in the NFC with 19 receiving touchdowns. ... Seahawks DE Michael Bennett has four sacks and a forced fumble in four meetings. ... Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has averaged 291 passing yards per game, with seven touchdowns and no interceptions, in the past three games. He has 486 passing yards, three TDs and no interceptions in two home meetings. ... Packers WR Randall Cobb has caught a TD pass in four straight home games. He caught eight passes for 116 yards in the last meeting.


PREDICTION: This is the proving game for the Packers, who face a much more explosive offense than the two they have beaten the past two weeks. But the Russell Wilson and the Seahawks have owned December (17-3).


OUR PICK: Seahawks, 30-25.


--Chris Cluff


Atlanta Falcons (7-5) at Los Angeles Rams (4-8)


KICKOFF: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. TV: FOX, Dick Stockton, David Diehl, Kristina Pink.


SERIES HISTORY: 77th regular-season meeting. The Rams lead the series, 47-27-2. The Falcons won the last meeting with the St. Louis Rams, 31-24, on Sept. 15, 2013. The Falcons won their last game against the Rams in Los Angeles, 8-5, on Oct. 2, 1994.


GAMEDATE: 12/11/16


KEYS TO THE GAME: The Falcons must hold off the surging Tampa Bay Buccaneers in order to claim the NFC South title and return to the playoffs for the first time since 2012. The Falcons and the Bucs are tied at 7-5, but the Falcons hold the tiebreaker advantage if both teams win out and finish 11-5.


While much of the hype in SoCal is about rookie QB Jared Goff, the Falcons will need their run defense to play well in order to beat the Rams.


The Rams finished strong last season at 7-9 and were projected to lean heavily on second-year running back Todd Gurley while developing Goff. But the Rams have not been able to spring Gurley and their respectable defense has spent too much time on the field.


Gurley was named the NFL's offensive rookie of the year after rushing for 1,106 yards and 10 touchdowns last season. He has gone 15 consecutive games without rushing for more than 100 yards and had a season-low 11 carries against the Patriots on Sunday. Gurley has rushed for a paltry 679 yards on 211 carries.


The Falcons need QB Matt Ryan to get the ball to WR Julio Jones. The Falcons have targeted Jones only six times in the red zone.


Overall, Ryan has completed 284 of 414 passes for 3,813 yards, 27 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He has a passer rating of 112.3. Jones has 72 catches for 1,253 yards and five touchdowns. He did not practice on Wednesday with his turf toe injury.


The Rams have faced two straight Pro Bowl quarterbacks in Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints and Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. A defense that was playing at an elite level for most of 2016 responded by surrendering 78 points in two blowout losses.


The Rams' challenge will be forcing Ryan to look elsewhere with the ball by limiting his looks to Jones.


MATCHUPS TO WATCH:


--Rams LT Greg Robinson vs. Falcons DE Vic Beasley. Robinson returned to the starting lineup Sunday after getting benched the week before over season-long poor play and mental lapses. He fared reasonably well against the Patriots. But he is in for a tall task vs. Beasley, who leads the Falcons with 10.5 sacks and will be a handful with his quickness, burst and physicality.


--Falcons LG Andy Levitre vs. Rams DT Aaron Donald. Levitre is having a strong second season with the Falcons, but he will have to anchor and anticipate Donald's quickness. Donald, a two-time Pro Bowler, is a disruptive force and has six sacks on the season. He was ejected from a game earlier in the season after making contact with a referee.


FRIDAY INJURY REPORT


ATLANTA FALCONS


--Out: DE Adrian Clayborn (knee), WR Mohamed Sanu (groin)


--Questionable: WR Julio Jones (toe), T Jake Matthews (knee), S Robenson Therezie (ankle)


LOS ANGELES RAMS


--Doubtful: RB Benny Cunningham (neck)


--Questionable: CB E.J. Gaines (thigh), DE Robert Quinn (concussion)


PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Rams CB Michael Jordan. With E.J. Gaines coming up lame with a quad injury Sunday against the Patriots, Jordan will likely get the starting nod. An undrafted rookie free agent from Western Missouri, Jordan has spent most of the season on the practice squad. Gaines did not practice Wednesday.


FAST FACTS: Falcons WR Julio Jones had seven catches for 113 yards last week vs. Kansas City and now has an NFL-high 1,253 yards. In his only previous game against the Rams (2013), Jones caught 11 passes for 182 yards, including an 81-yard touchdown. ... Falcons RB Devonta Freeman had two rushing touchdowns last week vs. Kansas City, after having two rushing touchdowns the week before against Arizona. ... Top overall 2016 draft pick Jared Goff has lost his first three NFL starts. Goff has thrown four touchdown passes against three interceptions and has a 70 passer rating. The last quarterback selected No. 1 overall to lose his first three starts was Alex Smith with San Francisco in 2005 (lost five). ... Rams WR/PR Tavon Austin had two TD catches in the last meeting. Since 2013, he is the only NFL player with five TDs rushing (7), 10 receiving (12) and punt return TDs (3). ... Rams DT Aaron Donald leads NFL DTs with 26 sacks.


PREDICTION: The Rams' defensive front can be a challenge for any team, but Falcons QB Matt Ryan has not been flustered easily this year.


OUR PICK: Falcons, 35-21.


--Frank Cooney


New Orleans Saints (5-7) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)


KICKOFF: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Raymond James Stadium. TV: FOX, Thom Brennaman, Charles Davis, Chris Spielman.


SERIES HISTORY: 49th regular-season meeting. Saints lead series, 30-18. After the Saints took seven consecutive games in the series, the Bucs finally ended the run with a 26-19 victory at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in Week 2 last season. The Saints, however, rebounded to take the rematch at Raymond James Stadium, 24-17, on Dec. 13 for their fourth win in a row in Tampa. The Saints have won six of the last seven meetings at the site of Sunday's game, outscoring the Bucs 187-118. Since Sean Payton took over in 2006, the Saints are 13-7 against the Bucs.


GAMEDATE: 12/11/16


KEYS TO THE GAME: After having a difficult time throwing the ball in Sunday's loss to the Detroit Lions, the Saints now get to face the Bucs' 15th-ranked pass defense, which has allowed just 249.9 yards per game. That likely means the Saints will try to move the ball on the ground and loosen up the Bucs' 25th-ranked run defense, which gives up 116.1 rushing yards a game and 4.4 yards per carry. Yet, that doesn't mean Drew Brees won't be highly motivated to atone for their clunker of a game a week ago.


The Bucs have given up 22 touchdowns and 12.7 yards per reception, which will provide opportunities for Brandin Cooks, Michael Thomas and Willie Snead to make some plays, especially if running backs Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower are successful early.


The Saints have done a decent job in their last seven games of pressuring the quarterback while the secondary provides coverage down the field. They will need more of that against the Bucs and quarterback Jameis Winston, who has completed 61.7 percent of his passes with 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Winston has been sacked 24 times and the Saints have reco
 

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Gridiron Angles - Week 14
December 10, 2016



NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:


-- The Rams are 10-0 ATS (11.10 ppg) since Oct 30, 2011 as a home dog after gaining no more than 15 first downs last game.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:


-- The 49ers are 0-12 ATS (-6.92 ppg) since Nov 10, 2013 at home if not more than a TD dog after they threw for less than 200 yards last game.


TOP NFL PLAYER ATS TREND:


-- The Seahawks are 9-0-1 ATS (9.35 ppg) since Jan 6, 2013 coming off a home game where Russell Wilson completed at least 70% of his passes.


NFL CHOICE TRENDS:


-- The Bills are 9-0 ATS (13.00 ppg) since Sep 16, 2012 coming off road loss where they failed to cover by at least seven points.


TOP NFL PLAYER OU TREND:


-- The Steelers are 0-14 OU (-8.93 ppg) since Dec 14, 2014 when LeVeon Bell had at least 15 rushes last game.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Broncos are 11-0 OU (9.55 ppg) since Dec 13, 1999 off a game as a favorite where they punted at least 8 times.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:


-- The Rams are 0-10 OU (-15.30 ppg) since Oct 28, 2013 after a road loss where they had less than 28 minutes time of possession.


SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:


-- Teams which have won as an underdog of more than a FG in two straight games are 40-56-2 OU. Active on Tampa Bay.


NFL BIBLE ATS ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Vikings are 0-11 ATS as a favorite on grass over a team that lost their last two games.


NFL BIBLE O/U ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Buccaneers are 0-18 OU on grass during the regular season when they are off a road game and facing a team that has averaged 13-plus passing first downs per game.
 

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Vegas Money Moves - Week 14
December 9, 2016



For the first time all season we've been given outstanding matchups in all three isolated night games.


The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Oakland Raiders 21-13 at home on Thursday and the remaining night games are taking in the largest Week 14 NFL action so far.


"We're getting lots of action on the typical teams like we do every week, beginning with the Cowboys," said Boyd Gaming sports book director Bob Scucci. "We opened the Cowboys -3 and we've moved through -3.5 and up to -4; I think we're the only 4 out there and we've got some sharp play on the Giants, but they were just playing the number."


Scucci moved the Cowboys to -4 on Thursday afternoon and even with those wagers taking the Giants, he didn't move the number just because he knows he's still going to be needing the Giants once Sunday night comes around with all the extended parlay risk. Station Casinos also made the move to -4.


Every other book in Las Vegas is using some variation of -3.5, including William Hill's operation which has seen 87 percent of their cash and tickets written on the Cowboys. Dallas has failed to cover the number in its last two games after reeling off nine straight covers.


The total is an interesting look with the all books in town at 47 or 47.5 considering it's going to be 28 degrees with a 20 percent chance of snow. However, the biggest factor with the total -- wind -- is only supposed to get up 5 mph. Up until the Week 1 game when the Giants won 20-19 at Dallas, these two teams had gone 'over' in seven straight meetings.


The other big game has New England at home without Rob Gronkowski getting a visit from the suddenly hot Baltimore Ravens, who feature the NFL's No. 1 ranked defense.


"I'm a little surprised that we're seeing so much two-way action with ticket counts here," Scucci said. "We opened high like we always do with New England and the line has been dropping ever since."


William Hill and the Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook opened with the largest number at -9, the Stratosphere opened -8 and everyone else opened -7.5, but it's been the same story everywhere as most have the Patriots have some variation of -7 (EV). The South Point, which deals only in flat numbers, made the first plunge in town to -6.5 on Friday afternoon.


The last three times the Ravens have been getting +7 or higher against the Patriots, they covered all three. Two of those were in the playoffs and they won one of them straight up on their way to the Super Bowl.


"The Ravens have the defense to keep them in the game," said Scucci, who noted that this is going to be a big teaser game with New England.


William Hill books have seen 81 percent of their cash taken on the side choosing the Ravens and 55 percent of the tickets written as well. This is a major shift from what we've seen all season with the public and their Patriots who have covered mostly inflated numbers in nine of 12 games. The public believes what they saw last and Joe Flacco finally had himself a good game in a 38-6 wipe out of the Dolphins.


Baltimore has covered four of its last five, but the four covers were at home. They've gone 0-3 straight-up and against-the spread in their last three road games.


Week 14 Moves to Watch - per Bob Scucci:


Arizona at Miami
"Sharps have been all over the Cardinals. We opened Miami at -2.5 and we've flipped it to Arizona -1.5."


NY Jets at San Francisco
"The 49ers have been bet up to -3 with most just betting against Bryce Petty starting for the Jets." The game opened pick 'em.


Minnesota at Jacksonville
"They're betting against Jacksonville, again, and taking the Vikings (-3.5)."


Atlanta at Los Angeles
"The Falcons have been bet up from -6 up to -7 just because the Rams with Jared Goff appear to be barely a notch above the 49ers and Browns."


William Hill's Public Plays


Ticket counts are the best indicator to see what the masses are playing with their parlays, which are also the games that can collectively hurt the books most if they all cover. It used to be a good idea to bet against the public and be on the side the books need most, but that hasn't been the case this season with the public faring extremely well with their plays in six of the past seven weeks.


Here's a look at the five most bet upon teams that William Hill is staring at with ticket counts:


1) Falcons 94% at Los Angeles
2) Redskins 94% at Philadelphia
3) Steelers 92% at Buffalo
4) Vikings 89% at Jacksonville
5) Bengals 88% at Cleveland


Weather Update


Besides Metlife Stadium on Sunday night, weather could play a role Monday night at New England with 33 degrees expected and a heavy chance of rain (5 mph wind). Lambeau Field gave us a fun looking game last week with snow and its possible again Sunday with Seattle in town. It'll be 28 degrees with 90 percent chance of snow in the morning and 10 mph winds. The total in that game is 46 and should be expected to drop considerably.
 

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Pick Six - Week 14
December 10, 2016



Week 13 Record: 1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS


Overall Record: 34-40 SU, 32-43-1 ATS

Texans at Colts (-6, 46 ½) – 1:00 PM EST



Houston
Record: 6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS, 7-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1


The Texans continue to stumble away from NRG Stadium as their road record dropped to 1-5 following last Sunday’s 21-13 setback at Green Bay as 6 ½-point underdogs. Houston has been held to 13 points or fewer in four of five road defeats, while quarterback Brock Osweiler has yet to throw for more than 270 yards in a game this season. The Texans go for the crucial season sweep of the Colts to grab the tiebreaker inside the AFC South as Houston rallied past Indianapolis, 26-23 in overtime back in Week 6.


Indianapolis
Record: 6-6 SU, 6-5-1 ATS, 8-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1


The Colts embarrassed the Jets on Monday night, 41-10 to pull back to .500 and into a three-way tie for first place in the division alongside the Texans and Titans. Indianapolis will be looking to win consecutive games for the second time this season, but the Colts are listed at their highest favorite number with their previous high chalk mark coming against the Bears in Week 5 as four-point favorites. The Colts have cashed the UNDER in three straight games at Lucas Oil Stadium, but each of those totals closed at 50 or higher.


Best Bet: Houston +6


Steelers (-2, 47) at Bills – 1:00 PM EST



Pittsburgh
Record: 7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS, 9-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1


The Steelers have come alive of late by winning three straight games, while holding opponents to a total of 30 points in those victories. The Giants were the latest victim to fall to Pittsburgh, 24-14 at Heinz Field last Sunday as the Steelers cashed as 6 ½-point favorites. Pittsburgh owns a 3-3 SU/ATS mark in the role of a road favorite this season, while going for its sixth consecutive win over Buffalo dating back to 2001. The Steelers are making their first trip to Buffalo since 2010 when Pittsburgh pulled out a 19-16 overtime triumph as 6 ½-point favorites.


Buffalo
Record: 6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS, 9-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 200/1


The Bills were on their way to a third straight victory at Oakland after grabbing a 24-9 third quarter lead last Sunday. However, the Raiders ran off 29 consecutive points to smoke the Bills, 38-24 and send Buffalo to its fourth loss in the last six contests. Buffalo has eclipsed the OVER in all five home contests this season, while putting up at least 25 points in each of those games. The Bills have participated in high-scoring affairs off a loss, going 4-1 to the OVER in this situation.


Best Bet: Pittsburgh -2


Cardinals (-2, 43 ½) at Dolphins – 1:00 PM EST



Arizona
Record: 5-6-1 SU, 4-8 ATS, 6-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1


The Cardinals travel east looking to snap a three-game road losing streak. Arizona is still outside the NFC Wild Card race, but picked up a crucial home victory over Washington last Sunday, 31-23 as 2 ½-point favorites. Carson Palmer threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns, the third game this season the Arizona quarterback has put up three touchdown passes. The Cardinals haven’t fared well on the highway this season by losing four of five road games, as all five away contests have sailed OVER the total.


Miami
Record: 7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 8-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1


The Dolphins return home following a 38-6 beatdown at Baltimore last week to snap a six-game winning streak. Miami has taken care of its business at home this season by compiling a 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS record at Hard Rock Stadium, as the Dolphins have eclipsed the 27-point mark in all five home victories. The Dolphins have dropped each of their last three meetings against the Cardinals as Arizona is making its first trip to Miami since a 24-23 triumph back in 2004.


Best Bet: Miami +2


Redskins (-2, 46 ½) at Eagles – 1:00 PM EST


Washington
Record: 6-5-1 SU, 8-4 ATS, 10-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 85/1


Two weeks ago, the Redskins owned a 6-3-1 record and were in a prime position to be a Wild Card team in the NFC. Following losses at Dallas and Arizona the last two weeks, Washington has slipped to seventh place in the NFC, one half-game behind Tampa Bay for the second Wild Card spot. The Redskins are currently on a five-game OVER streak, while allowing 31 points in each of the past two defeats. Washington knocked off Philadelphia as a three-point home underdog in Week 6 by a 27-20 count, the fourth straight win by the Redskins over the Eagles since 2014.


Philadelphia
Record: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS, 6-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 1000/1


The Eagles began the season at 3-0, but have stumbled to a 2-7 record the last nine games. Philadelphia dropped a 32-14 decision at Cincinnati last week, as rookie quarterback Carson Wentz threw a career-high three interceptions. The Eagles’ offense has been grounded of late by scoring 15 points or fewer in the last three games, but Philadelphia returns home where it owns a 4-1 SU/ATS mark at Lincoln Financial Field. In two opportunities as a home underdog this season, the Eagles have put together a pair of terrific defensive efforts by holding the Steelers and Vikings to a total of 13 points in a two double-digit wins.


Best Bet: Philadelphia +2


Seahawks (-3, 46 ½) at Packers – 4:25 PM EST



Seattle
Record: 8-3-1 SU, 7-5 ATS, 6-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/1


The Seahawks knocked the Packers out of a potential Super Bowl appearance two seasons ago with a walk-off victory in overtime. Lightning couldn’t strike twice for Seattle last season at Green Bay, as the Seahawks erased a 10-point deficit but ultimately lost, 27-17 as 3 ½-point underdogs. The Seahawks are currently rolling by winning four of their last five, while routing the Panthers in a double-revenge spot last Sunday night, 40-7 as eight-point favorites. Seattle has been an inconsistent team on the road by compiling a 2-3-1 mark, while cashing only once in four tries in the away favorite role.


Green Bay
Record: 6-6 SU, 6-5-1 ATS, 6-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1


The Packers aren’t normally a home underdog in December as this is just the third time they are getting points at Lambeau Field in this month since 1991. Since Aaron Rodgers took over at quarterback for Brett Favre, the Packers have received December points at home once in 2013 against the Steelers, but Rodgers didn’t play in a 38-31 loss. The Packers look to begin a December surge after picking up their second straight win last Sunday over the Texans, as Green Bay owns a 4-2 SU and 3-2-1 ATS mark at home. After Green Bay allowed at least 31 points during each loss of a four-game skid, the Packers’ defense has stepped up by yielding 13 points in each of the past two victories.

Best Bet: Green Bay +3


Saints at Buccaneers (-1 ½, 51) – 4:25 PM EST



New Orleans
Record: 5-7 SU, 8-4 ATS, 6-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 200/1


The Saints step up when they are listed as an underdog, plain and simple. New Orleans has covered in all six opportunities as a ‘dog this season, including outright home victories over Carolina and Seattle. The Saints are coming off their worst performance of the season in last Sunday’s 28-13 home defeat to the red-hot Lions as 6 ½-point favorites. Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees was intercepted three times and failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time this season. New Orleans has seen plenty of success at Raymond James Stadium by winning each of its past four visits to Tampa since 2012.


Tampa Bay
Record: 7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS, 6-5-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1


The Buccaneers are on the doorstep of taking sole possession of first place in the NFC South with a victory on Sunday paired with an Atlanta loss at Los Angeles. Tampa Bay continued its road domination in last Sunday’s 28-21 comeback victory at San Diego to improve to 5-1 away from Raymond James Stadium. However, the Bucs have stumbled to a 2-4 home mark with both victories coming in the underdog role against the Bears and Seahawks. Since Jameis Winston took over at quarterback for Tampa Bay last season, the Bucs have compiled a 2-5 SU/ATS record in the favorite role.

Best Bet: New Orleans +1 ½
 

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Total Talk - Week 14
December 10, 2016



For the second consecutive week, total bettors saw a stalemate (7-7-1) posted on the board. Most of the results were never in doubt with exception to the Arizona-Washington ‘over’ ticket (48 ½) that saw 38 points scored in the second-half after just 16 in the first 30 minutes. Through 13 weeks, the ‘over’ has gone 97-93-1 this season.


Weather


There were two games affected by the conditions last week in Green Bay and Chicago and sure enough, both of those contests went ‘under’ the number rather easily. For Week 14, there are expectations for snow in Buffalo, Cleveland, New York and New England. Be sure to stay abreast with the latest updates.


Divisional Matchups


Since 2010, the NFL decided to backload the regular season schedule with divisional games with the intention of creating more meaningful matchups in the final weeks. Including the Raiders-Chiefs matchup on Thursday, Week 14 has seven divisional games and five of them have playoff implications.


Houston at Indianapolis: In the first meeting between the pair on Oct. 16 from Houston, the Texans rallied for an improbable 26-23 overtime win against the Colts and the ‘over’ (48) was very fortunate to cash. Including that ticket, the ‘over’ has cashed in the last four between the pair in Houston. I mention those results because we’ve seen nothing but ‘under’ tickets in Indianapolis, seven straight to the low side. Houston hasn’t broken 20 points at Indy since 2008 and this year’s Texans squad is ranked last with 13.2 points per game on the road.


Cincinnati at Cleveland: The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams and the lone ‘over’ winner came earlier this season in Week 7 when Cincinnati was gifted a couple scores by Cleveland. The Browns are off the bye and Robert Griffin III is getting the start at quarterback. He should help an offense that’s averaging 9.8 PPG in their last four games (4-0 under) but I wouldn’t bank on it. The Bengals defense has been sneaky good in their last four games (17.5 PPG). The total opened 43 ½ and has dropped to 41 ½ as of Saturday morning.


Chicago at Detroit: The Bears beat the Lions 17-14 in Week 4 at Soldier Field and the ‘under’ (48) was never in doubt. I talked about Detroit’s underrated defense last week and it dominated New Orleans 28-13 in the Superdome, a rare feat these days. I can’t imagine Chicago doing much at Ford Field and the Lions could very well see the ‘under’ cash in their seventh straight game.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay:
This is a very tricky total to handicap and the early money leaned to the ‘under’, dropping the opener from 52 to 51. The Saints are always going to be a solid ‘over’ look based on their weak defense and offensive ability. However, New Orleans is facing a surging Tampa Bay team that is only allowing 13.3 PPG in its last four games, all wins too. For what it’s worth, the Buccaneers have held the Saints to 23, 19 and 24 in the last three meetings. I feel the number is a tad inflated and I’d hold off this Sunday and reassess the rematch battle between the pair in Week 16 from New Orleans.


Washington at Philadelphia: The Redskins have been one of the best ‘over’ wagers (10-2) this season but bettors should be aware that all five home games for the Eagles have gone ‘under’ the number. Philadelphia started the season 4-2 behind great defensive play and a mistake-free offense. Unfortunately for the Eagles, the defense has hit a wall and has allowed 26.6 PPG in their last six games. Despite the poor numbers, the total has gone 3-3 during this span because the offense has broken down under rookie QB Carson Wentz. Philadelphia has seen the ‘over’ go 3-0 in its three divisional games this season, which includes the Week 6 matchup between this pair from FedEx Field.


Dallas at N.Y. Giants: (See Below)


Coast to Coast


The Rams and Patriots easily went ‘under’ the number last week and that was just the third time this season that a West Coast team saw the low side connect while visiting the Eastern Time Zone. Overall, the ‘over’ still holds an impressive 13-3 (81%) mark this season and is 24-8 (75%) the last two seasons.


Week 14 has two clubs from the West Coast playing in the Eastern Time Zone and they’re a combined 9-2 to the ‘over’ on the road this season.


Arizona at Miami: The Cardinals have been a great ‘under’ bet at home (6-1) and perfect ‘over’ team (5-0) on the road. Why? Arizona is allowing 30.4 PPG outside of the desert compared to 14.1 PPG at home. Miami has watched the ‘over’ go 5-1 at home but this total (43 ½) seems a little low based on these tendencies and that may have me passing here. Plus, the Dolphins have seen the ‘under’ go 7-3 in their last 10 versus NFC foes and that includes a 2-1 mark this season.


San Diego at Carolina: The Chargers have seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 outside of Qualcomm Stadium and they’ll be facing a Carolina defense that surrendered 75 points in its recent two-game road trip to the West Coast. Playoffs are unlikely for either club, which means the pride factor come into play. San Diego has been in every game and the offense (27.8 PPG) is ranked third in the league. The Chargers have seen the ‘over’ go 2-0-1 in three games versus the NFC South this season and this week’s total (49) is expecting more points. Make a note that the Panthers have been better defensively at home (21 PPG) and that effort has helped the ‘under’ go 4-2 at Charlotte.


Hit the Road


We touched on a Road System total angle in Week 12 and it’s in play again on Sunday.


Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game


Unfortunately this system lost a few weeks ago in a Monday Night Football matchup as Green Bay defeated Philadelphia 27-13 in its third consecutive road contest and the ‘under’ (47 ½) connected.


This week, Washington will visit Philadelphia for a divisional matchup (see above) and the Redskins will be playing their third consecutive game outside of FedEx Field.


Including this loss, this system has watched the ‘over’ go 39-20-1 (66%) the past 12 seasons but it’s just 2-3 the last five situations.


Under the Lights


The ‘over’ posted a 2-1 mark in the primetime matchups last week. Overall, the ‘under’ has gone 21-19-1 in night games which includes the past result on Thursday between Oakland and Kansas City. Make a note that the ‘under’ has cashed in five straight midweek matchups and is 9-4 on the season.

Dallas at N.Y. Giants:
The Giants defeated the Cowboys 20-19 in Week 1 and the ‘under’ (48) connected rather easily. Prior to that result, the ‘over’ was on a 7-0 run in this series. A lot has changed since the opener and the rematch has a total hovering around 47. The Cowboys have won 10 straight behind a ground-and-pound offense and steady defense, which has produced a 7-5 lean to the ‘under.’ New York’s offense (20.4 PPG) has struggled all season and it just can’t stay on the field, ranked 31st in time of possession. The Giants remain in playoff contention because the defense (19.8 PPG) has been very solid and that unit has helped the ‘under’ go 9-3. Bettors should note that the SNF affair has seen the ‘over’ cash in six straight games and is 10-4 to the ‘over’ this season. I don’t necessarily like to play the due factor but we’re certainly ready for a slugfest.


Baltimore at New England: This total opened 45 ½ and has dropped to 44 ½ as of Saturday morning at a couple major offshore books. I expect the number to go lower, especially with poor weather looming. The Ravens and Patriots have both seen the ‘under’ go 8-4 this season and even though they have capable quarterbacks that can move the football, I expect a tight affair on Monday. The ‘over’ has gone 3-2 in the last five meetings but that was when both clubs had a slew of healthy offensive weapons on the field, something that will be missing this week. The Patriots have played in three night games this season and the ‘under’ has gone 2-1.


Fearless Predictions


We caught a break with the teaser and an early line last Sunday but still wound up losing 20 cents ($20) and the deficit is nearing five units ($450). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


Best Over: Atlanta-Los Angeles 45


Best Under: Cincinnati-Cleveland 41


Best Team Total: Over 19 ½ Los Angeles


Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Under 54 Baltimore-New England
Under 56 Dallas-New York
Over 34 ½ Arizona-Miami
 

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SNF - Cowboys at Giants
December 10, 2016



The Cowboys have rattled off 11 straight wins after a season opening loss with a pair of remarkable rookies guiding the offense and they'll get a chance to avenge their only loss Sunday night against the Giants at a chilly Metlife Stadium. The Giants (8-4) closed as 1-point favorites in the 20-19 Week 1 win at Dallas, but it's the Cowboys (11-1) who come in as 4-point favorites this time around.


Following the Cowboys only loss, they went on to cover the spread in nine straight games as QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott, behind the NFL's best offensive line, elevated both their names near the top of the list for MVP consideration. Prescott has thrown 19 TD passes while offering only two interceptions and has compiled a 108.6 QB rating. Elliott leads the league with 1,285 rushing yards and has Eric Dickerson's single season rookie rushing record of 1,808 yards in sight.


As the Cowboys power rating has risen, the last two weeks we've seen that the escalated rating may have hit the ceiling as they won, but failed to cover against Washington and Minnesota. The question you have to ask yourself before betting Sunday's game is whether the Cowboys spread is too high for the third straight week.


The Giants come off a lackluster 24-14 loss at Pittsburgh which halted a six game win streak where they covered five times. The high-priced defense has shown signs of toughness, but overall this team really doesn't do much well. They're 31st in rushing yards (77.5 ypg), 26th in total offense (327.4) and 24th in points scored (20.4). They've turned the ball over 21 times while forcing only 16, yet they still manage to overcome all their deficiencies and win ball games.


The Giants best feature is simply getting the ball in the hands of WR Odell Beckham Jr. who has caught 75 passes for 1,015 yards and eight TD's. He's a game changer and will have to make big plays for the Giants to win Sunday night.

WHO THEY BETTING?



"We're getting lots of action on the typical teams like we do every week, beginning with the Cowboys," said Boyd Gaming sports book director Bob Scucci. "We opened the Cowboys -3 and we've moved through -3.5 and up to -4; I think we're the only 4 out there and we've got some sharp play on the Giants, but they were just playing the number."


Scucci moved the Cowboys to -4 on Thursday afternoon and even with those wagers taking the Giants, he didn't move the number just because he knows he's still going to be needed the Giants once Sunday night comes around with all the extended parlay risk. Station Casinos and William Hill also made the move to -4.


William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada has seen 87 percent of their cash and tickets written on the Cowboys.


TOTAL VALUE?


The total is an interesting look with the all books in town at 47 or 47.5 considering it's going to be 30 degrees with a good chance of snow. However, the biggest factor with the total -- wind -- is only supposed to get up 5 mph. Up until the Week 1 game when the Giants won 20-19 at Dallas, these two teams had gone Over in seven straight meetings.


ROBERTS' RATING


The Cowboys have had the most accelerated rating this season and they've moved up to the top of my NFC charts, tied with Seattle, and 1.5 points behind New England.


HYPOTHETICAL SUPER BOWL TEAM


If Dallas makes the Super Bowl, they're such a popular public team that you could see the sports books open them as the favorite against New England. Both Seattle and Dallas would surely be favored over any other AFC team. If you believe that to be true, then you might see some value in the Westgate SuperBook's current Super Bowl line with the AFC -3 against the NFC.

SUPER BOWL ODDS - WESTGATE



New England is 2-to-1 favorites, but close behind is Dallas at 7-to-2 and the risk on them at books all across Las Vegas. America's Team is packing some serious weight on their wagon. The Giants are 30-to-1, which is around the same odds offered before the playoffs started in each of their last two Super Bowl wins.


RECENT MEETINGS


The Giants are 3-0-1 ATS in the past four meetings with Dallas and the Over has gone 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings.


TRENDS


-- Dallas is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four December games.
-- Dallas is 3-11-2 ATS in its last 16 game in Week 14.
-- Dallas stayed Under total in last five December games.
-- NY Giants are 1-3-1 ATS in last five after a loss.
-- NY Giants Over total 9-4 in last 13 home games.


NEXT WEEK


The national audience gets a treat next week with the Buccaneers-Cowboys game being flexed to Sunday night on NBC. Yes. Dallas fans will love it, but plenty others will like it because the Bucs are playing some great football right now. Dallas is 9.5-point home favorites for that one. The Giants are -3.5 at home against the Lions, a number that looks too high and one you probably won't get by next week.
 

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NFL notebook: Kuechly ruled out vs. Chargers
December 10, 2016



Carolina Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly remains in the NFL concussion protocol and will not play in Sunday's game against the San Diego Chargers, the team announced Saturday.


The ruling again raises questions about his future beyond Sunday.


Kuechly missed the last two games after suffering a concussion against the New Orleans Saints on Nov. 17. He was a full participant in Friday's practice for the first time since the injury and met with the medical stuff on Saturday.


Coach Ron Rivera was hopeful Friday that Kuechly would pass the final test in the protocol with an independent neurologist and be able to play.


This will be the second straight season the Pro Bowl linebacker has missed at least three games due to a concussion. Kuechly missed three games last season after sustaining a Week 1 concussion.


The Panthers (4-8) need Kuechly's service as they try to keep their playoff hopes alive. Carolina allowed 534 yards in last Sunday's 40-7 loss to the Seattle Seahawks and gave up 75 points and 900 yards in the two games he missed.


Fourth-year linebacker A.J. Klein is expected to start in Kuechly's place again.


--The New York Giants activated running back Shane Vereen from the injured reserve list for Sunday night's home game against the Dallas Cowboys.


Vereen has missed the last nine games with a triceps injury suffered in Week 3 against the Washington Redskins. The six-year veteran underwent surgery and returned to practice last week when he was designated for return from IR.


Vereen participated in his first padded practice on Thursday since the surgery.


--The Cleveland Browns signed cornerback Jamar Taylor to a three-year contract extension.


The deal is worth $15 million, a league source told Cleveland.com. It includes a $3 million signing bonus and $10.05 million over the first two years.


Taylor, who was set to become a free agent after this season, was acquired by the Browns in a draft day trade with Miami in 2013 after being picked in the second round by the Dolphins.


--The Denver Broncos promoted linebacker Quentin Gause from their practice squad and placed wide receiver Marlon Brown on injured reserve.


Brown was signed by the Broncos three weeks ago after he was out while recovering from a back injury. He was not active in the Broncos' previous two games.


The 6-foot, 243-pound Gause is an undrafted rookie from Rutgers who spent the last eight weeks on Denver's practice squad.


--The Buffalo Bills promoted linebacker Bryson Albright from their practice squad to the active roster.


The 6-foot-5, 225-pound Albright is expected to be part of the team's kick and punt coverage units for Sunday's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.


Albright has spent time on both the Bills' 53-man roster and practice squad this season.
 

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NFL Sunday action report: Steelers most popular bet of Week 14


“A lot of people are taking notice that the Steelers are playing their best football of season, having won and covered three straight."


Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts – Open: -4.5; Move: -6; Move: -6.5.


The logjam of mediocrity atop the AFC South will clear up a little bit with this matchup. Indianapolis (6-6 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) has won three of its last four to stay in contention for the division title. Last week, the Colts blasted the New York Jets 41-10 as a 1-point road underdog in the Monday nighter.


Houston has seen its division lead slip away due to a three-game SU and ATS purge. The Texans (6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) went to Green Bay last week as a 6.5-point road pup and exited with a 21-13 loss.


“The Colts opened the game as a 4.5-point favorite. Remember, that was before the domination of the Jets,” Simbal said, noting the line was at 6 by Thursday morning and 6.5 later that day. “People really backing Andrew Luck, who looks to be healthy.”


Indeed, Luck returned from a concussion to go a very solid 22 of 28 for 278 yards and four TDs against New York.


Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins – Open: -2; Move: -1.5; Move: +1; Move: +2


Miami’s betting stock apparently took a hit after its six-game winning streak (5-1 ATS) came crashing down in Week 13. The Dolphins (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) were on the wrong end of a 38-6 beatdown at Baltimore as a 3.5-point pup.


Arizona (5-6-1 SU, 4-8 ATS) is very close to the tipping point of having nothing left to play for this season. The Cardinals apparently realized that last week, beating a good Washington team 31-23 laying 2.5 points at home.


“Tuesday morning, we got sharp play on Arizona +2.5, so we moved the Cards to +1.5,” Jerome said. “Thursday afternoon, we got sharp play on ‘Zona +1.5, so we moved the Cardinals to -1. The heavy majority of betting cash agrees with the sharps, so on Thursday night, we moved Arizona to the current number of -2.


“One reason I can see why the line has moved so much is that the Dolphins are now going to be without one of their most important people on offense, with center Mike Pouncey out indefinitely with a hip injury.”


At CG’s books, including shops at The Cosmopolitan, M and the Venetian, the Dolphins opened -2.5 and were down to -1 by Thursday morning. The line flipped to Arizona -1 by Thursday afternoon and -2 that night.


“People really backing Arizona after their good performance against Washington,” Simbal said.


Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions – Open: -9; Move: -8; Move: -7.5


Detroit is two games clear of the rest of the NFC North, a big surprise considering that this is normally Green Bay’s territory and that Minnesota started the year 5-0. The Lions (8-4 SU and ATS) rolled to a 28-13 upset of New Orleans as a 6.5-point road underdog in Week 13, their fourth straight win and seventh in their last eight games (7-1 ATS).


Meanwhile, Chicago is the division doormat at 3-9 SU, 5-7 ATS, but is coming off a 26-6 home rout of even more lowly San Francisco in a pick ‘em game.


“Obviously the Lions are playing hot as can be, Bears looked good last week, albeit against the 49ers in terrible weather,” Simbal said. “There has been some early money on the Bears. Maybe that 9 was just a shade too high.”


Simbal said sharp money was the initial driver of the line drop in this division clash.


“Anytime a big favorite goes from 9 to 8 early on, that’s gonna be sharp money,” he said. “Because no fan is really gonna take the Bears in this situation.”


Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills – Open: +1; Move: +2; Move: +3


Pittsburgh is looking to keep pace with Baltimore in the race for the AFC North crown. The Steelers (7-5 SU and ATS) have won and cashed three in a row, including last week’s 24-14 victory over the New York Giants giving 6.5 points at home.


Buffalo (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) had a 24-9 third-quarter lead at Oakland last week, then gave it all away and more in a 38-24 loss getting 3 points.


“Pittsburgh -1 was the first sharp bet we got of the week, so we moved the Steelers to -2,” Jerome said. “Thursday afternoon, we moved Pittsburgh to -3 (even money). I could see us playing with the juice a bit and maybe using 3 flat or 3 -115 on the Steelers, but we definitely won’t move off the number 3.


“A lot of people are taking notice that the Steelers are playing their best football of season, having won and covered three straight. A large majority of cash is backing Pittsburgh on the spread, making the Steelers the most popular NFL bet for week 14.”


Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: Pick ‘em; Move: +1; Move: +2.5


Washington is struggling to keep itself in the playoff hunt, having dropped its last two games. The Redskins (6-5-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) lost at Arizona last week 31-23 catching 6.5 points.


Philadelphia (5-7 SU and ATS) has lost three in row and five of its last six SU and ATS, including a 32-14 setback at Cincinnati last week getting 2 points.


“On Tuesday afternoon, we got a sharp bet on Washington pick ‘em, so we moved the ‘Skins to -1,” Jerome said. “Then on Friday morning, we got another sharp bet on Washington -1, so we moved the Redskins to the current number of -2.5. I could see us moving to Washington -3 (even) on Sunday, if we keep getting 75 to 80 percent of the cash on Washington.


“For as nice as the Steelers are playing now, the other NFL team from Pennsylvania is trending the wrong way. Carson Wentz is looking like the player that was supposed to back up Sam Bradford, before Bradford was shipped off to Minnesota.”
 

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Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack


Six most popular Week 14 picks in Westgate Super Contest


6) Green Bay Packers +2.5 (408)


5) Minnesota Vikings -3 (420)


4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (440)


3) Washington Redskins -1 (481)


2) Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 (558)


1) Baltimore Ravens +7 (577)
 

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NFL


Sunday, December 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Sunday Night Football betting preview: Cowboys at Giants
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The Cowboys will look to avenge their lone loss of the season when they visit the Giants on Sunday night and are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS on the road.


Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+3.5, 47)


The Dallas Cowboys can celebrate numerous victories on Sunday night should they exit MetLife Stadium with a win over the New York Giants. The Cowboys can avenge a season-opening loss to their NFC East rival, extend their gaudy winning streak to 12 games and clinch the NFC East title - and possibly a first-round bye and home-field advantage.


Rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott have distinguished themselves since the former completed just 25 of 45 passes for 227 yards and the latter labeled his season-low 51-yard, 20-carry performance as "average" in a 20-19 loss to the Giants on Sept. 11. "It does seem like it was forever ago just because we've been through so much more as a team since then and we've grown so much," said Elliott, who tops the league in rushing yards (1,285) and is second in scrimmage yards (1,607). The Giants kept Elliott to a season-low 2.6 yards per carry in that tilt, but saw Le'Veon Bell become the first rusher to reach triple digits against them on Sunday following a 118-yard performance in a 24-14 setback to Pittsburgh. Odell Beckham Jr. did not snag any of Eli Manning's three touchdown passes in the opener, but has found the end zone eight times in his last eight outings.


TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.


POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys (-5.5) - Giants (-1) + home field (-3) = Cowboys -1.5


LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened the week as 3-point home dogs and that line rose half-point midweek to 3.5 The total hit the betting board at 47.5 and faded slightly to 47 late in the week. View complete line history here.


WHAT SHARPS SAY: 'Cowboys will be out to avenge season opening loss to the Giants while New York looks to stay in the playoff chase. Big Blue stands 18-12 SUATS in Sunday night games while Dallas remains focused on maintaining home field advantage. Key will be the quarterback play. '


WEATHER REPORT: The playing conditions for MetLife Stadium won’t be great, with a bit of snow in the evening, followed by rain and temperatures in the low 30’s.


INJURIES:


Cowboys -
CB Orlando Scandrick (questionable, foot), DE Jack Crawford (questionable, foot), DE Demarcus Lawrence (questionable, back), T Tyron Smith (questionable, back), OL Chaz Green (questionable, foot), LB Justin Durant (questionable, hamstring), S J.J. Wilcox (questionable, leg), DE Randy Gregory (out indefinitely, suspension)


Giants - TE Larry Donnell (questionable, concussion), WR Dwayne Harris (questionable, ankle), G Justin Pugh (questionable, knee), S Nat Berhe (questionable, concussion), LB Mark Herzlich (questionable, concussion), DE Owa Odighizuma (questionable, knee), CB Coty Sensabaugh (questionable, ribs), DT Johnathan Hankins (questionable, thigh), DE Jason Pierre-Paul (out for season, hernia), RB Shane Vereen (questionable, tricep)


ABOUT THE COWBOYS (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS, 5-7 O/U): Dez Bryant limped out of the gate with just one catch for eight yards in the first meeting with the Giants, but the mercurial wideout has gained chemistry with Prescott and reeled in four touchdowns in his last four contests. Veteran tight end Jason Witten acquitted himself well in the opener with nine receptions for 66 yards, but saw his franchise-record games streak with a catch end at 130 in a 17-15 victory over Minnesota last week. Witten will look to exploit a Giants defense that has struggled versus tight ends this season, with the club allowing 63 receptions and 793 yards with three touchdowns.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (8-4 SU, 6-5–1 ATS, 3-9 O/U):
Containing Elliott became an even harder chore for New York after news broke that veteran Jason Pierre-Paul will be sidelined at least six weeks following sports hernia surgery. Pierre-Paul registered six tackles and two quarterback hurries in the first meeting with Dallas, although the Giants were unable to register a sack on Prescott. Fellow defensive end Olivier Vernon (team-leading eight sacks) has collected one in six straight and a multiple total in three consecutive contests. Romeo Okwara, Owa Odighizuwa and Kerry Wynn are expected to take on larger roles in Pierre-Paul's absence for the Giants.


TRENDS:


* Cowboys are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
* Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 9-2 in Cowboys last 11 road games.
* Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games overall.
* Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.


CONSENSUS: 59 percent of the picking public is grabbing the road favorite Cowboys and the same percentage are grabbing the Over.
 

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SUNDAY, DECEMBER 11


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


MIN at JAC 01:00 PM

O 38.0


CIN at CLE 01:00 PM


CIN -5.5


U 41.0


PIT at BUF 01:00 PM


BUF +1.5 ******


O 45.5


WAS at PHI 01:00 PM


PHI +1.5 ******


O 48.5


CHI at DET 01:00 PM


CHI +7.5 ******


U 42.0


HOU at IND 01:00 PM


IND -6.5

O 47.5 ******



DEN at TEN 01:00 PM


TEN -1.0


U 44.0


ARI at MIA 01:00 PM


MIA +1.5 ******


U 43.5


SD at CAR 01:00 PM


SD +1.5


U 49.0 ******


NYJ at SF 04:05 PM


NYJ +3.0


U 43.0 *****


SEA at GB 04:25 PM


GB +3.0 ******


O 45.0


NO at TB 04:25 PM


NO +1.5 ******


U 51.0


ATL at LA 04:25 PM

LA +5.0


U 44.5


DAL at NYG 08:30 PM

NYG +3.5 ******


O 46.5 ******
 

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