Cnotes 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Thursday's game
Cowboys (5-6) @ Vikings (6-5)— Minnesota coach Zimmer had emergency eye surgery Wednesday nite, his status for this game is unclear. Dallas won its last 10 games (9-1 vs spread); they’re 5-0 on road, 2-0 as road favorites- they scored 27+ points in last seven games, averaged 7.9+ yds/pass attempt in last four. Dallas has zero takeaways (-1) in last four games. Minnesota lost five of last six games after a 5-0 start; they’re 4-1 at home, with only loss inn OT to Detroit. Vikings are 2-2 as an underdog this year. Home side won last five Cowboy-Viking games; teams last met in 2013. Dallas lost last five visits here, with four of five losses by 10+ points- their last win here was 21 years ago. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 10-3 vs spread, 3-1 on road. NFC North underdogs are 6-7 vs spread, 1-1 at home. Under is 8-3 in Minnesota games, 3-1 in last four Cowboy road games.


Sunday's games
Broncos (7-4) @ Jaguars (2-9)— Denver is 3-4 in last seven games after 4-0 start; they’re 3-2 on road, 1-1 as road favorite. Broncos are +6 in turnovers in their wins, -3 in losses. Jax lost its last six games (2-4 vs spread); they’re 0-4 at home- they were favored in last two home games. Jacksonville is -13 in turnovers in its last seven games, with only two takeaways- they have only seven TA’s for whole season. Broncos are 20-39 on 3rd down the last two games, but they lost tough OT game to Chiefs last week, a pivotal game. Jaguars won three of last four games with Denver; teams last met in ’13. Broncos lost three of last four visits here, with last win in ’05. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 9-8 vs spread, 3-0 on road. AFC South underdogs are 7-11, 2-5 at home.

Chiefs (8-3) @ Falcons (7-4)— KC won six of its last seven games, is 4-2 on road this year, 2-2 as a road underdog. Chiefs’ last four games were all decided by 5 or less points- they converted 20 of last 36 3rd down plays. Atlanta is 3-2 at home this year, 1-3 as home favorite, with losses to Bucs/Chargers- only nine of their 67 plays vs Arizona LW came on third down, thats how well they moved ball. Chiefs are in Denver/Oakland sandwich; they host Raiders next Thursday. Falcons won 38-14/40-24 in last two series games; teams split last four meetings played here. AFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 8-3 vs spread this season; NFC South favorites are 6-9 vs spread, 4-7 at home. Under is 6-1 in last seven Chief games, 2-9 in Atlanta games this year.

Texans (6-5) @ Packers (5-6)— Houston is 3-0 in division games, 3-5 outside division; they’re 1-4 on road, 1-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 27-18-18-7 points, with win at Jacksonville. Texans are -10 in turnovers in their losses, +1 in wins. Short week for Pack after they snapped 4-game skid with Monday win in Philly; Green Bay is 3-2 at home, 1-3-1 as home favorite, with home wins by 7-7-16 points. Home side lost all three series games; Texans won 24-21 in only visit here, in ’08. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 7-11 vs spread, 5-6 on road. NFC North favorites are 6-10 vs spread, 5-6 at home. Over is 5-3 in last eight Houston games, 4-1 in last five Green Bay games. December on frozen tundra can be dicey for a dome team from Texas- Osweiler is from Montana, but played in college at Arizona State.

Eagles (5-6) @ Bengals (3-7-1)— This is two sliding teams who desperately need a win. Philly lost six of last eight games after its 3-0 start; Eagles lost last five road games, are 1-3 as road underdog this year, losing away games by 1-7-6-5-11 points- this is short week for them after Monday loss to Packers. Bengals are 0-3 since their bye, losing by 1-4-5 points; they’re 2-2 at home, and were favored in all four. Since ’08, Cincy is 14-6-1 vs spread as a home underdog (4-0 since ’13). Cincy is 8-3-1 in this series, 2-0-1 in last three meetings; Eagles are 0-3-1 here, with a 13-all tie in last visit, 8 years ago. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 10-3 vs spread, 3-1 on road; AFC North underdogs are 2-10 vs spread, 0-4 at home. Bengals are 1-5-1 in last seven games, with only win against the Browns.

Lions (7-4) @ Saints (5-6)— Detroit has trailed all 11 games in 4th quarter; all 11 games were decided by 7 or less points. Lions are 2-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdogs, with wins at Indy/Minnesota. Detroit has only 7 offensive TD’s in last five games; they had 16 in first six games. Saints won three of last four home games, are 1-3 as home favorites this year; they outscored opponent in second half of last six games (38-3 in last two games). Lions beat New Orleans 24-23/35-27 in last two meetings; Detroit is 3-9 on Bourbon Street, but won here by 8 LY. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 6-7 vs spread, 5-6 on road NFC South favorites are 6-9 vs spread, 4-7 at home. Under is 5-0 in last five Detroit games, 4-2 in Saints’ last six games.

49ers (1-10) @ Bears (2-9)— Niners lost last ten games (2-8 vs spread); they’re 0-5 on road, 2-3 as road underdog, losing away games by 19-19-29-3-7 points- they allowed 30+ points in six of last seven games. Chicago is 0-3 since its bye, losing by 26-6-6 points; they’re 2-3 at home, 0-2 as home favorite, beating Lions/Vikings. Barkley was 28-54/316 in his first NFL start, 27-21 loss to Titans LW. Bears are -6 in turnovers last three games; they have one takeaway in last four games. 49ers won three of last four series games, winning 26-20 in OT here LY, their first win in last five visits to Soldier Field. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 4-11 vs spread, 4-6 on road. NFC North favorites are 6-10 vs spread, 5-6 at home. Over is 5-2 in 49ers’ last seven games, 1-3-1 in Chicago home games.

Rams (4-7) @ Patriots (9-2)— LA got crushed in Superdome LW, has now lost six of last seven games- they appeared to quit late in game vs Saints. Rams are 3-3 in true road games, 4-1 as road underdog, with losses by 28-3-28 points in true road games. New England is 6-1 since Brady is back; they’re 2-2 as home favorite, winning home games by 7-27-18 points. Patriots won last four series games, winning last meeting 45-7 in London in ’12. Rams won three of last four visits here. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 4-11 vs spread, 4-6 on road. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 7-5 vs spread, 3-5 at home. Under is 4-1 in Rams’ last five games, 6-3 in last nine Patriot games. Cal native Goff playing in Foxboro in December could be dicey; check the weather forecast.

Dolphins (7-4) @ Ravens (6-5)— Miami won/covered its last six games; they’re 2-3 on road, winning last two away games, at Chargers/Rams- they’re 2-2 as road underdogs. Baltimore is 3-1 since its bye, allowing 12.8 pts/game in last four home games. Ravens are 4-2 at home, 3-2 as home favorite- they lost at home to Raiders/Redskins. Ravens won five of last six series games; Dolphins lost 30-23/26-10 in last two visits here, last of which was in ’10. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 9-7 vs spread, 5-5 on road. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 7-9 vs spread, 4-5 at home. Under is 3-2 in Miami games, 5-0 in last five Baltimore games. Miami is tied with Denver for second Wild Card spot; Ravens are tied with Steelers atop NFC North.

Bills (6-5) @ Raiders (9-2)— Buffalo won the two games since its bye by 4-7 points; they’re 3-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdog, with losses on foreign soil by 6-3-6 points- they won in Foxboro when Brady was out. Bills have only two giveaways, two takeaways in last five games. Oakland won its last five games (4-1 vs spread); they’re 3-2 at home, 1-3 as home favorites- they play Chiefs on Thursday better not look past this game. Raiders won five of last seven series games; Bills lost last six visits to Oakland- their last win here was in 1966 (they beat Raiders in LA in ’91). AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 9-7 vs spread, 5-5 on road. AFC West favorites are 9-8 vs spread, 5-8 at home. Over is 9-2 in Oakland games, 8-3 in Buffalo games.

Buccaneers (6-5) @ Chargers (5-6)— Tampa Bay won/covered last three games, allowing 10.7 pts/game; they allowed only three offensive TD’s on last 31 drives. Bucs are 4-1 on road, with only loss in Week 2 at Arizona- they’re 3-1 as road underdogs. San Diego won four of last six games, is 3-2 at home, 2-2 as home favorite, losing to Saints/Dolphins. Chargers are 8-2 in last ten series games; they split last four. Average total in last three series games is 59.3. Buccaneers lost three of four visits here, with last win in ’96. Tampa Bay San Diego NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 11-2 vs spread, 8-1 on road; AFC West favorites are 9-8 vs spread, 5-8 at home. Under is 4-2 in Tampa Bay’s last six games, 8-3 in Charger games this season.

Redskins (6-4-1) @ Cardinals (4-6-1)— Washington is 6-2-1 in its last nine games; they’re 2-2 in true road games, 3-1 vs spread as road underdogs, with losses by 3 at Detroit, 5 at Dallas. Redskins are 47-91 on 3rd down in their last six games. Arizona lost three of last four games, is 3-2-1 at home, with losses to Pats/Rams- they’re 2-4 as home favorites, have turned ball over nine times in last four games (-5). Redskins won eight of last nine series games; they lost 30-20 in last meeting couple years ago. Washington is 4-8 in its last dozen trips to the desert. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 8-4 vs spread, 4-3 on road. NFC West favorites are 5-7 vs spread, 3-4 at home. Over is 9-2 in Washington games, 0-6 in Arizona home games. Arizona was outscored 41-16 in second half of its last three games.

Giants (8-3) @ Steelers (6-5)— New York won its last six games (5-1 vs spread) but last week in Cleveland was only true road game in that span- they beat Rams in London. Giants are 2-2 in true road games, losing by 14 in Minnesota, 7 in Green Bay; they also won in Dallas. Pittsburgh won last two games, allowing total of 16 points; Steelers lost last two home games, to Pats/Cowboys- they’re 3-1 as home favorites this year. Home side lost last three Giant-Steeler games; Pitt is 3-2 in last five series games. This is only 2nd time Giants have been in Steel City since 1991. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 8-4 vs spread, 4-3 on road. AFC North favorites are 7-9 vs spread, 3-4 at home. Under is 6-2 in last eight Giant games, 8-2 in last ten Steeler games.

Panthers (4-7) @ Seahawks (7-3-1)— Last four Carolina games were all decided by exactly three points; Panthers are 1-4 on road- they were favored in four of the five games- they’re 1-0 as an underdog this year. Carolina is 2-5 this season in games decided by three or less points. Seahawks are 6-2-1 in last nine games, 5-0 at home, 2-3 vs spread as a home favorite, with home wins by 2-19-2-6-11 points. Carolina-Seattle met in playoffs last two years; Panthers won 27-23/31-24 in two meetings with Seahawks LY. Carolina lost four of last five visits here. NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 11-2 vs spread, 8-1 on road; NFC West favorites are 5-7 vs spread, 3-4 at home. Under is 3-1 in last four Carolina games, 4-2 in last six Seattle games. Seahawks new 1-3-1 this season when scoring less than 26 points.


Monday's game
Colts (5-6) @ Jets (3-8)— Indy is 5-2 this season when scoring 24+ points, 0-4 when they do not; Colts are 2-2 in true road games, 2-1-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 14 at Denver, 3 in Houston. Jets lost last three games by 4-3-5 points; they’re 1-4 at home, 2-1 as home underdogs, with home losses by 1-10-3-5 points- they beat Baltimore 24-16 for only home win. Colts lost by 1-26-13 points in last three games with Jets, scoring only 10.7 pts/game; teams split last eight visits here. Three of last eight series meetings came in playoffs. AFC South non-divisional road teams are 7-8 vs spread, 2-1 as favorites. AFC East home teams are 7-7 vs spread, 4-2 as underdogs. Under is 3-1 in last four Indy games, 6-1 in Jets’ last seven games.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Week 13

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 1

8:25 PM
DALLAS vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
Dallas is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games


Sunday, December 4

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. BALTIMORE
Miami is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
Detroit is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Detroit
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. GREEN BAY
Houston is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games at home

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. CHICAGO
San Francisco is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games at home
Chicago is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games at home

1:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. NEW ENGLAND
Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
Los Angeles is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 9 games

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games on the road
Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Atlanta is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at home

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. JACKSONVILLE
Denver is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
Denver is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Denver
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

4:05 PM
BUFFALO vs. OAKLAND
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo

4:25 PM
NY GIANTS vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games on the road
NY Giants are 2-2-2 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

4:25 PM
WASHINGTON vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Washington's last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Washington
Arizona is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games ,

4:25 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. SAN DIEGO
Tampa Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
San Diego is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

8:30 PM
CAROLINA vs. SEATTLE
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Seattle is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home


Monday, December 5

8:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. NY JETS
Indianapolis is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets are 7-13-1 ATS in their last 21 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
NY Jets are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Thursday, December 1

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Thursday Night Football betting preview: Cowboys at Vikings
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The Cowboys are trying to navigate through their most rugged stretch of the season, with Thursday's matchup marking their third game in 12 days.

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+3, 44)

The Dallas Cowboys have not lost since the season opener but cannot afford to take their foot off the pedal as they prepare to visit the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday night. Riding a 10-game winning streak and leading the New York Giants by two games in the NFC East, Dallas has a chance to clinch a playoff spot with a win over Minnesota and some help.

The Cowboys are trying to navigate through their most rugged stretch of the season, with Thursday's matchup marking their third game in 12 days. “They throw these schedules at you and it’s part of the game,” Dallas cornerback Brandon Carr told reporters. "You get through this one, get through the storm ... you can look back and tell stories about it. It’s something that makes us bond and become closer.” Minnesota, which also will be playing for the third time in 12 days, has been in a spiral since sprinting out to a 5-0 start. The Vikings have dropped five of their last six, including a 16-13 loss at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day to fall one game behind the Lions in the NFC Central.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Dallas Cowboys opened as 2.5-point road favorites and by Monday morning the point spread was all of the way up to the current number of 3.5. The total has wobbled between 43.5 and, the current number, 44 all week. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome.

INJURY REPORT:

Cowboys - DE D. Lawrence (Probable, back), T T. Smith (Probable, back), LB S. Lee (Probable, illness), S B. Church (probable, forearm), DL D. Irving (Probable, illness), DE J. Crawford (Questionable, foot), DT T. McClain (Questionable, thigh), LB J. Durant (Out, hamstring), S J. Wilcox (Out, leg), OL C. Green (Out Indefinitely, foot), CB M. Claiborne (Out Indefinitely, hernia), DE R. Gregory (Elig Week 15, suspension), LB R. McClain (I-R, suspension), RB D. McFadden (Questionable, elbow), OL L. Collins (Questionable, toe), TE J. Hanna (I-R, knee), TE G. Swaim (I-R, pectoral), DE C. Tapper (I-R, back), LB J. Smith (I-R, knee), QB K. Moore (I-R, ankle).

Vikings - WR S. Diggs (Probable, knee), TE K. Rudolph (Probable, shoulder), S H. Smith (Probable, ankle), LB E. Kendricks (Probable, hip), CB T. Newman (Probable, neck), G J. Sirles (Probable, hip), QB S. Bradford (Probable, ankle), WR A. Thielen (Probable, shoulder), QB T. Heinicke (Questionable, foot), CB C. Munnerlyn (Questionable, ankle), DE E. Griffen (Questionable, shoulder), CB M. Alexander (Doubtful, groin), DT S. Floyd (Out, knee), CB M. Sherels (Out, ribs), G J. Berger (Out Indefinitely, concussion), G M. Harris (Questionable, illness), RB A. Peterson (Mid Dec, knee), T J. Long (I-R, achilles), T A. Smith (I-R, tricep), T M. Kalil (I-R, hip), QB T. Bridgewater (I-R, knee), DT S. Crichton (I-R, undisclosed), CB J. Price (I-R, knee), S A. Exum Jr. (I-R, leg).

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS, 5-6 O/U): Dallas owner Jerry Jones is adopting the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" philosophy and sees no reason to deviate from the formula of riding the legs of rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott, the league's leading rusher with 1,199 yards. "The more we give Ezekiel the ball, then I think the better," Jones said of Elliott, who also has rushed for 11 touchdowns. "We're winning with that. We're wearing them down on defense." Elliott has thrust himself into the MVP conversation, and one of his competitors may be fellow rookie Dak Prescott, who has 18 TD passes against only two interceptions and has posted a passer rating of at least 100 in nine of the last 10 games. Dallas ranks 31st in pass defense (280.4 yards) and has made only four interceptions.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS, 4-7 O/U): Minnesota cornerback Xavier Rhodes has as many interceptions as the Cowboys and is part of a defense that ranks second in the league with 17.5 points allowed and paces the NFC with a plus-12 turnover differential. With a stagnant running game and an offense that has been limited to 16 points of fewer four times in the last six games, quarterback Sam Bradford is pushing for the coaches to open the playbook and take shots downfield. Bradford (ankle) has been limited in practice this week but hopes to have the services of leading wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who had 40 receptions over a four-game stretch prior to sitting out last week's loss against the Lions with a knee injury. "I think we've got to find a way to create more explosive plays," Bradford acknowledged.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Vikings are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 8-2 in Cowboys last 10 road games.
* Under is 14-2 in Vikings last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The road favorite Dallas Cowboys are picking up 70 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 59 percent of the Over/Under wagers.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 13

New Orleans has consistently produced when it gets deep into opposition territory, coming into Week 13 ranked third overall in touchdown success rate in the red zone (70.21 percent).

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 40.5)

Dolphins' weak O-line vs. Ravens' formidable front line

The Dolphins are making waves in the AFC playoff race, reeling off six consecutive victories after opening the season 1-4. The defense has been garnering the majority of the headlines, but the offense has been equally as impressive, reaching the 30-point plateau three times during the run. But look for things to get a lot more difficult in Week 13, as Miami visits Baltimore to face a Ravens team that boasts one of the most impressive defensive lines in football.

The 2016 Baltimore defense may not harken back to the dominant Ray Lewis-led units that propelled the Ravens to a pair of Super Bowls, but it has been impressive nonetheless. All four starting defensive lineman have Pro Football Focus grades of 73 or better, led by Terrell Suggs (81.5). The Ravens have allowed the fewest rushing yards in the NFL entering Week 13 (824), and have surrendered just four touchdowns on the ground to date.

Miami appears to be in good position to challenge the Baltimore defensive line given the Dolphins' recent scoring barrage, but a closer look at the numbers reveals some major red flags. Four of the five members of Miami's base offensive line formation have PFF grades below 58, highlighted by RG Jermon Bushrod (40.1), who will likely match up against Baltimore LE Timmy Jernigan (77.1). The Miami offense could be in for a long afternoon this weekend.

Daily fantasy fade: RB Jay Ajayi


Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-6, 53.5)

Lions' defensive generosity vs. Saints' red-zone success

By most measures, the Saints have one of the top offenses in the game; this is particularly true at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, where New Orleans is averaging a staggering 34 points per contest. You don't light up the scoreboard that often without being proficient in the red zone - and the Saints certainly fit the bill. That bodes poorly for the Detroit Lions, who travel to the Big Easy this weekend hoping they can find a way to shut down the Saints inside their own 20.

New Orleans has consistently produced when it gets deep into opposition territory, coming into Week 13 ranked third overall in touchdown success rate in the red zone (70.21 percent). Only the Tennessee Titans (72.50) and the Carolina Panthers (70.59) have been more proficient. The Saints are over 70 percent both at home and on the road, and have improved dramatically over last season, when they were ninth in the NFL with a 60.34-percent red zone success rate.

The Lions are in no position to stem New Orleans' red-zone success. They come into this one ranked 26th in opponent red zone touchdown rate (64.10 percent), with a similar rate at home and on the road. With Drew Brees playing as well as he has all season, and the Saints armed with one of the best home-field advantages in the league, the Lions could struggle mightily to keep New Orleans out of the end zone once it marches down the field.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Drew Brees


Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders (-3, 49)

Raiders OLB Khalil Mack vs. Bills RT Jordan Mills

The Buffalo Bills haven't won in Oakland in 50 years. A lot of things have happened since then, most recently the Raiders surging to the top of the AFC West standings with a 9-2 record. Oakland has a lot of players to thank for its stunning resurgence, but one in particular has made a significant impact on the defensive side of the ball. And he's facing a whale of a mismatch this weekend, one that could have singlehandedly decide the outcome of the game

Raiders OLB Khalil Mack has been nothing short of spectacular over the past three seasons, boasting Pro Football Focus grades of 94.6, 95.9 and 92.6, respectively. He's the top-graded player at his position, and with good reason: He has nine sacks and an interception through 11 games, along with the only touchdown of his career. And if that weren't enough, he has also forced three fumbles so far this season, recovering a pair.

This week's victim: Bills RT Jordan Mills, whose PFF rating of 46.1 ranks him 65th among his peers. It's by far one of the biggest mismatches at any position in any game in Week 13 - and if Mack performs as expected, Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor could find himself scrambling for his life. In a game where the visiting Bills are expected to keep things close, Mack could mean the difference between the Raiders going 10-2 or 9-3.

Daily fantasy watch: Raiders D/ST


Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (+2, 49)

Jets' punting problems vs. Colts' elite kicking game

Vegas is expecting the Monday nighter between the Jets and Colts to be a close one, with the Jets boasting a solid run defense, the Colts featuring a high-octane pass attack and neither team all that proficient at preventing points through the air. Much of the focus in this one will be on whether Andrew Luck can thrive after missing last week due to injury - but if field position winds up playing a role, the biggest factor could be the significant advantage Indianapolis has in the kicking department.

The Jets and Arizona Cardinals boasted the worst average yards per punt a season ago (36.2), and New York hasn't shown much of an improvement in 2016. It enters Week 13 ranked 29th in yards per punt (38.1), ahead of only the Jacksonville Jaguars (37.8), Washington Redskins (37.4) and Cardinals (36.4). Seventh-round pick Lachlan Edwards has pinned foes inside their own 20-yard line just 16 times in 52 punts this season, a rate that ranks among the league's worst.

Indianapolis punter Pat McAfee has been considerably better. The 29-year-old social media dynamo is averaging an absurd 50.1 yards per attempt, easily the best mark in the NFL. He's a major reason the Colts rank third league-wide in net yards per punt attempt at 43.1, nearly 1 1/2 yards better than the mark they posted in 2015. All those extra yards could have a major impact on what is anticipated to be one of the closest contests of the week.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Andrew Luck

 

[CNOTES]

TNF - Cowboys at Vikings
December 1, 2016


Dallas (-3.5, 44) at Minnesota, 8:25 pm ET, NBC/NFLN


December football kicks off with the rare attractive mid-week matchup on the Thursday night slate. Even though a bit of the allure has faded with Minnesota no longer atop the NFC North, we could definitely be getting a playoff preview with the Vikings welcoming in the Cowboys. They've won the last five meetings in the series in Minneapolis, with Dallas' last win coming in 1995.


Although any postseason showdowns would almost certainly be played in Dallas, the owners of the NFL’s best record should still be tested here. Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott takes the field in one of the most hostile atmospheres he’s experienced in the pros to date to square off against one of the league’s top defensive units, so that combination should make this a challenge.


The Cowboys are looking to tie a franchise-record with their 11th consecutive win, which would also guarantee their presence in the playoffs for the first time since 2014 and only the second time in seven seasons. Dallas is perfect on the road despite all the uncertainty it has faced this season, from a rookie backfield to injuries to defensive concerns. It owns wins at Washington, Green Bay and Pittsburgh. It has even survived a potentially nasty QB controversy when Tony Romo took the high road in accepting his demotion. To date, the Cowboys have been bullet-proof.


The Vikings started that way too, but have crumbled since starting 5-0. They somehow thrived despite losing Teddy Bridgewater before the season began and Adrian Peterson tearing his ACL in Week 2, but their lack of offense has caught up with them to the point where they’re in danger of falling to .500 after stumbling out of the playoff picture for the first time with their Thanksgiving Day loss at Detroit.


Minnesota’s last three losses have been one-possession games. The Lions victimized them twice, first in OT and last week on a field goal at the final gun. The Vikings had Washington on the ropes at FedEx Field two-and-a-half weeks ago before being outscored 12-0 in the second half. Both of those teams have now passed them in the standings.


Late Wednesday, news came down that Vikes’ head coach Mike Zimmer underwent emergency eye surgery to repair retina damage, so he may not even be present on the sideline if not cleared. Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur and defensive coordinator George Edwards, a long-time Zimmer confidant back to their lengthy tenure with the Cowboys, are equipped to make for as smooth a transition as possible if Zimmer is absence, but it would be yet another obstacle to clear for a team that hasn’t managed to navigate many successfully of late.


Injuries, a lack of a running game, poor offensive line play, inefficiency in the red zone and kicking miscues top the laundry list of issues that have derailed Minnesota, but its success at the brand new U.S. Bank Stadium has helped keep it afloat. Three of the Vikings remaining five games will be played there, so they’ll be looking to move to 5-1 with an upset here, instantly keeping hope alive since it would keep them firmly entrenched in the chase for the NFC North title and one of two Wild Card spots.


Two of this NFL's season top four MVP candidates have a big stage to shine on here and could potentially make major inroads with big performances. Sportsbook.ag ranks Ezekiel Elliott at (+300), favored alongside Tom Brady and Matt Ryan (+300) in their current future odds. Prescott is +500, rising fast since he's up to 18 touchdown passes against just two picks after going without an interception in November.

Dallas Cowboys
Season win total: 8.5 (Over +110, Under -130)
Odds to win NFC East: 1/7 to 1/12
Odds to win NFC: 2/1 to 3/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 5/1 to 4/1

Minnesota Vikings
Season win total: 9.5 (Over +115, Under -135)
Odds to win NFC North: 5/4 to 13/4
Odds to win NFC: 10/1 to 23/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 25/1 to 50/1

LINE MOVEMENT


Division odds for the Cowboys opened 3-to-2 back in May, slipped to only 2-to-1 entering Week 1 despite the loss of Romo and are now 1-to-12 after last Thursday's win. The Vikings opened 5-to-2 to win the NFC North back in May and remain in that ballpark after falling behind Detroit. The Cowboys are the NFC favorite, while the Vikings numbers at the WestgateLV SuperBook have slipped due to their struggles. As far as this matchup is concerned, the advanced line was set at Cowboys -2, opened at -3.5 this week and continues to hover in that range. The total is set at 43.5/44.


BY GROUND OR BY AIR


Prescott hasn't thrown an interception since the Eagles got him way back on Oct. 30 but faces a Vikings squad that leads the NFC with 12 picks, ranking third overall. Minnesota's defense ranks first in opposing QB efficiency, second in points per game allowed (17.5), third in total yards allowed (307 ypg) and is fourth-best against the pass (206.8). Expect the Cowboys to respect the Vikes' strengths, which means they'll lean on an Elliott-led rushing attack wherever possible. The 21-year-old has run for at least 90 yards in nine straight games. After not allowing a back more than 55 rushing yards over the first six games, they've allowed 90-plus in three of the last five.


Dez Bryant has injected himself into the fray more of late and had scored touchdowns in four of five before last Thursday's contentious duel with Washington's Josh Norman. Bryant still ended up with five catches for 72 yards and will undoubtedly play with a chip on his shoulder here as he takes on a strong secondary led by safety Harrison Smith and corner Xavier Rhodes.


Minnesota hasn't had a 100-yard runner all season, while the Cowboys are the only defense to not allow 100-yard rusher. The Vikings ran last in NFL with 71.1 yards per game and 2.8 yards per rush.That's concerning for the Vikings given their inability to consistently protect Bradford over the past few months.

INJURY CONCERNS


The Vikings lost center Matt Kalil and tackle Andre Smith in October and tackle Jake Long in mid-December, so nagging issues with their offensive line aren't new. Center Joe Berger (concssion) won't play, so second-year center Nick Easton will get his first career start. The news is better for QB Sam Bradford (ankle), WR Stefon Diggs (knee) and TE Kyle Rudolph (shoulder), all of whom should play.


Dallas is hoping safety Barry Church (forearm) is able to return since J.J. Wilcox has been ruled out with a thigh contusion, leaving them thin in the back with Morris Peterson still out with a sports hernia. LB Sean Lee was sick this week, but will play. LB Justin Durant (hamstring) won't. The Cowboys elite offensive line will again be without RT Chaz Green, but did fine without him against the 'Skins.


RECENT MEETINGS (Minnesota 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS last five; UNDER 3-2)


11/3/13 Dallas 27-23 vs. Minnesota (DAL -8.5, 51)
10/17/10 Minnesota 24-21 vs. Dallas (MIN -1.5, 44)
1/17/10 Minnesota 34-3 vs. Dallas (MIN -2.5, 45)
10/21/07 Dallas 24-14 vs. Minnesota (DAL -9.5, 46.5)
9/12/04 Minnesota 35-17 vs. Dallas (MIN -6.5, 44)


PROPS


Of the props available below at the WestgateLV Superbook, I'd ride a field goal to provide the game's first points and would back that Elliott over.


Sam Bradford completions 24.5: (-110 o/u)
Dak Prescott passing yards 244.5: (-110 o/u)
Ezekiel Elliott rushing yards 93.5: (-110 o/u)
Dez Bryant receiving yards 69.5: (-110 o/u)
Dak Prescott TD passes 1.5: (-110 o/u)
Sam Bradford TD passes+INT 1.5: (-130 over, +110 under)
Total combined sacks 4: (-125 over, +105 under)
First score of game will be: (-150 TD, +130 other)
Total points: Cowboys 23.5, Vikings 20.5 (-110 o/u)


COWBOYS AS A ROAD FAVORITE


This will be the third time Dallas is favored on the road, as they've won and covered at both San Francisco and Cleveland by a combined margin of 59-27. This will be the first time they're in this role against a team with a winning record. The Cowboys were 1-1 SU/ATS as a road favorite last year.


VIKINGS AS A HOME UNDERDOG


The Vikings will be a home favorite for just the second time in their new digs. They beat Green Bay 17-14 as a 1-point 'dog on Sept. 18. They were only in this role once in the ’15 regular season and then against in the playoffs, both vs. Seattle. Minnesota lost both times, but covered the playoff setback despite Blair Walsh's brutal miss.


NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED


The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 14 has the Vikings as 3-point road favorites in Jacksonville. The Cowboys are back on the road in prime time next Sunday and have been placed as an early 2-point favorite against the N.Y. Giants.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL RECORD AND BEST BETS:


10/31/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
11/03/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
11/06/2016 13-8-1 61.90% +2100
11/07/2016 0-1-1 0.00% -550
11/10/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/13/2016 9-12-0 42.86% -2100
11/14/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
1/17/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/20/2016 12-12-0 50.00% -600
11/21/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
11/24/2016 3-3-0 50.00% -150
11/27/2016 12-10-2 54.55% +500


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 98-115-8 46.01% -14250


O/U Picks 95-119-5 44.39% -17950


Triple Plays:..... 47 - 55 - 4


NFC EASTERN CONFERENCE GOM.....0 - 1......... ( NY GIANTS THUMPS PHILLY )
NFL GAME OF THE YEAR.................0 - 0 -1 ( CAROLINA PUSHES WITH RAMS )
TOTAL OF THE DAY .......................1 - 0.....( INDY/GB GOES OVER 53 )
NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GOY..............,..0 - 1.....( RAIDERS STOMP BRONCOS )
INTERCONFERENCE GOD.............,...0 - 1,,,,,( DENVER UPSET SAINTS )
NFC GOM................................,....0 - 1.....( PHILLY UPENDS ATLANTA )
NFC NORTH GOM...........................0 - 1......( TAMPA BAY STOMPS THE BEARS)
NFC WEST BLOW OUT.....................0 - 1 .... ( ARIZONA BARELY BEATS THE 9ERS)
SUNDAY NIGHT INTERCONFERENCE GOY....0 - 1 ( SEATTLE UPSETS NEW ENGLAND )
SUNDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE YEAR 1 - 0 .....( WELL OVER THE 49 PTS....55 PTS )
THURS DOG OF THE DAY ................1 - 0 ( WASHINGTON + 6 COVERS DALLAS 26 - 31 )
THURS TOTAL OF THE DAY............... 1 -0 ( WASH/DALLAS OVER 52 26 - 31 )
DOG OF THE DAY...................... 0 - 0 - 1 ( CHICAGO + 6 /TENNESSEE 27 - 21 )
TOTAL OF THE DAY.........................0 - 1 ( NYGIANTS/CLEVELAND OVER45' 27 - 13 )
SUNDAY NIGHT DOG ......................1 - 0 ( KANSAS CITY + 3.5 DENVER 30-27 )

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 1


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


DAL at MIN 08:25 PM


DAL -3.0 *****


U 44.0 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 13
December 2, 2016


Bettors have been having their way with Las Vegas sports books in five of the past six weeks of NFL action, but Week 13 has the look of being very favorable for the house and kick off December with figures in the black. CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal has a few reasons to be optimistic that make lots of sense.


"Well, first off we already beat the Cowboys last night, so that gives us a little momentum from the first game of the week," he said referencing the Cowboys winning 17-15 at Minnesota Thursday, but failing to cover the spread (-3).


It's the second straight week Dallas hasn't covered after being on a 9-0 run against the spread. The past few Thursday's have put the books in a hole right out of the gate.


"The only two big teaser games we're looking at this week is Seattle and Green Bay, the 49ers and Bears are playing each other, the Browns have a bye and the Patriots have a large number (-13). If the Patriots are -6.5 to -7.5, the public is all over them, but they're a little apprehensive laying the big number this week."


The public's confidence in New England laying double-digits is also downgraded with Rob Gronkowski being out.


Teasers were a sore spot last week for most Vegas books with so many spreads hovering around -7, and Simbal said Seattle and Green Bay have also been heavily bet in parlays.


"Yeah, they love the Packers again after seeing them look good Monday night at Philadelphia and we're gonna being in trouble with the Seahawks because no one wants the Panthers," Simbal said. "We opened Green Bay -4.5 (vs Houston) and have been bet up to -6.5; no big bets, just a combination of moving with the market and smaller bets. The Seahawks have been bet heavy at -6.5, and -7 and we're currently at -7 (-120)."


The public is really down on the Texans and QB Brock Osweiler, which is help spurring Packers action. The other teams the public have been on every week has been whoever the Bears and 49ers are playing. They have a combined 3-19 record (7-15 ATS), but large money has an opinion on the ugly game of the week.


"Sharps have been betting the 49ers at every move from +3 all the way down to +1.5," said Simbal, who has the Bears as 1-point home favorite as of Friday afternoon. He said the public has shown no interest in the game.


CG Tech books have also taken large wagers on the Falcons who started as 3.5-point home favorites against the Chiefs, but have been bet up to -5. Simbal said the Falcons have six-times more action than the Chiefs. The Falcons have gone Over the total in nine of 11 games this season, including all five home games, but large money has bet Under dropping the number from 49.5 down to 48.5.


The Saints have also received sharp play for their home game against the Lions moving the number from -4.5 to -6.5. The starting spread is a little baffling, which indicates that the 5-6 Saints were 2-points better than the Lions who have won and covered six of their last seven. However, the Saints have covered seven of their last eight -- four of those games as an underdog.


One of the more attractive games of the day has the New York Giants, riding a six-game win streak, getting +6 at Pittsburgh. "We've had great two-way action with only $3,000 separating the two sides," said Simbal.


So yes, overall there doesn't appear to be too many pitfalls for books when forecasting Week 13. Let's go ahead and make the Vegas books a -300 favorite to show a collective win on the week at 5 percent or higher.


There's no way to actually validate the true results, but you kind of get the idea how big of a favorite they are to halt their losing streak.

 

[CNOTES]

Gridiron Angles - Week 13
December 3, 2016

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:


-- The Buccaneers are 13-0 ATS (11.04 ppg) since Sep 21, 2008 on the road after a home win where he covered.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:


-- The Raiders are 0-12 ATS (-8.23 ppg) since Nov 21, 2004 at home when the total is at least 46 coming off a win.


TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:


-- The Dolphins are 0-7 ATS (-10.50 ppg) since Dec 22, 2013 after Ryan Tannehill threw for at least three touchdowns.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:


-- The Steelers are 0-10 OU (-8.90 ppg) since Nov 18, 2012 off a win as a favorite where they scored more than expected.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Broncos are 11-0 OU (6.68 ppg) since Oct 24, 1999 off a home game where they passed for at least 100 yards more than their average.


NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Packers are 20-0 OU vs a non-divisional opponent when they are not more than a two-point dog and they are off a game as a dog of six points or less.

 

[CNOTES]

Pick Six - Week 13
December 3, 2016


Week 12 Record: 1-5 SU, 2-3-1 ATS


Overall Record: 33-39 SU, 31-38-1 ATS


Review: A rough week as the lone straight-up winner was the Ravens over the Bengals. The Jets cashed as home underdogs against the Patriots, while the Panthers pushed in a three-point loss to the Raiders.


Chiefs at Falcons (-5 ½, 49) – 1:00 PM EST


Kansas City
Record: 8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS, 8-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1


The Chiefs have been outgained in each of their last four games, but Kansas City has found a way to win three of those contests. In last Sunday night’s last-second overtime victory at Denver, the Chiefs mustered less than 300 yards offensively, but improved to 9-3 SU/ATS in their past 12 games away from Arrowhead Stadium. However, Kansas City owns a 2-5 SU/ATS mark in its previous seven games against NFC opponents with one of those wins coming at Carolina in Week 10 by erasing a late 17-0 deficit.


Atlanta
Record: 7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS, 9-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1


The Falcons remain atop the NFC South after cruising past the Cardinals last Sunday, 38-19 as four-point favorites. Atlanta improved to 2-8 ATS as a home favorite since the start of 2015 as the Falcons busted the 30-point mark for the fourth straight home game. Matt Ryan’s touchdown to interception ratio at the Georgia Dome improved to 12/3 following a two-touchdown performance against Arizona. Ryan owns a 2-0 SU/ATS career record against the Chiefs, including a 40-24 victory over Kansas City in the 2012 season opener.


Best Bet: Atlanta -5 ½


Texans at Packers (-6 ½, 45 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


Houston
Record: 6-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS, 6-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1


It’s been a rough road, literally for Houston this season. The Texans have dropped four of five games away from NRG Stadium with the only road victory coming at Jacksonville in Week 10. Houston suffered its first home defeat of the season in last Sunday’s 21-13 setback, the first time this season the Texans have lost two straight games. The Texans have struggled defensively on the highway by giving up at least 27 points in their four road losses, while the OVER cashed three times.


Green Bay
Record: 5-6 SU, 5-5-1 ATS, 6-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1


The Packers put an end to a four-game slide in last Monday’s 27-13 victory at Philadelphia as four-point underdogs. The Green Bay defense fixed its woes for at least one week after giving up 89 points in the previous two losses at Washington and Tennessee. Aaron Rodgers continued to stay hot for the Packers by throwing for 313 yards and two touchdowns, while eclipsing the 300-yard mark for the third straight week. The Packers have compiled a 3-4-1 ATS mark as a favorite this season, but have lost two of their last three at Lambeau Field.


Best Bet: Houston +6 ½


Lions at Saints (-6, 53) – 1:00 PM EST


Detroit
Record: 7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS, 7-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1


The Lions keep finding ways to win as Detroit is coming off its seventh victory this season when tied or trailing in the fourth quarter. Detroit edged Minnesota, 16-13 to even its mark inside the NFC North at 2-2, while pulling off the season tiebreaker over the Vikings. Detroit’s defense has been excellent during this three-game winning streak by allowing 48 points, while cashing the UNDER in five straight contests. The Lions went into the Mercedes-Benz Superdome last December and knocked off the Saints, 35-27 as Matthew Stafford threw three touchdown passes in the victory.


New Orleans
Record: 5-6 SU, 8-3 ATS, 6-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1


The Saints are riding a 7-1 ATS stretch the last eight games, punctuated by a 49-21 blowout of the Rams as eight-point favorites. New Orleans has won two of its last three at the Superdome since an 0-2 start at home, but have put together a 1-3 ATS mark as a home favorite. Drew Brees reached the 30-touchdown plateau for the ninth consecutive season as the New Orleans quarterback tossed four touchdowns against Los Angeles. The Saints had won the previous three home meetings with the Lions prior to last season’s eight-point defeat.


Best Bet: Detroit +6


Dolphins at Ravens (-3 ½, 40 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


Miami
Record: 7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS, 7-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1


After five games, the Dolphins were sitting in the doghouse at 1-4. However, Adam Gase’s team has ripped off six consecutive victories to move into the second Wild Card spot in the AFC. The Dolphins held off the 49ers last Sunday, 31-24, but failed to cover for the first time in six games as 7 ½-point home favorites. Ryan Tannehill is finally getting away from the “game manager” moniker as the Dolphins’ quarterback has tossed nine touchdowns and been intercepted only once during this six-game hot streak. Miami has won its last two road games since starting 0-3 on the highway, but the Dolphins needed late comebacks at San Diego and Los Angeles.


Baltimore
Record: 6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS, 7-3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1


The Ravens have gone through an uneven campaign at 6-5, but that’s good enough to be tied with the Steelers atop the AFC North. Baltimore pulled off the three-game home sweep of divisional foes by holding off Cincinnati last week, 19-14 as the Ravens’ defense limited their three rivals to 14 points or fewer. The Ravens have hit the UNDER in four consecutive games to improve to 7-3-1 to the UNDER this season. Baltimore has owned this series by winning five matchups between 2008 and 2014 before the Dolphins tripped up the Ravens without Joe Flacco last season, 15-13.


Best Bet: Miami +3 ½


Buccaneers at Chargers (-4, 47 ½) – 4:25 PM EST


Tampa Bay
Record: 6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS, 6-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 75/1


For whatever reason, the Buccaneers have played better away from Raymond James Stadium this season. Tampa Bay owns a solid 4-1 SU/ATS road record as the Bucs head to the west coast for the third time this season. The Bucs picked up only their second home victory last Sunday in a 14-5 triumph over the Seahawks as five-point underdogs to improve to 5-1 ATS in their previous six opportunities when receiving points. The defense has been a major reason why Tampa Bay has gotten back into the NFC South race by allowing 32 total points in the last three wins since giving up 43 to Atlanta in Week 9.


San Diego
Record: 5-6 SU, 7-4 ATS, 8-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 200/1


The Chargers’ roller-coaster season continued in last Sunday’s 21-13 triumph at Houston as 2 ½-point favorites. San Diego has now alternated wins and losses in each of its past five games, looking for consecutive victories for the first time since knocking off Denver and Atlanta in mid-October. The Chargers have won four straight December home games in the role of a favorite, while posting a 4-1 ATS mark as in December/January action last season.


Best Bet: San Diego -4


Giants at Steelers (-6, 48 ½) – 4:25 PM EST


New York
Record: 8-3 SU, 6-4-1 ATS, 8-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1


The Giants face the Cowboys in a crucial NFC East battle next Sunday night at Met Life Stadium as New York looks to remain two games back in the division. First, New York needs a victory at Pittsburgh as the Giants attempt to pull off the four-game sweep of AFC North opponents. The Giants pulled away from the winless Browns last Sunday, 27-13 to capture their sixth consecutive win as Eli Manning has racked up over 260 yards passing only once during this hot streak.


Pittsburgh
Record: 6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS, 8-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1


The Steelers return home following back-to-back road wins at Cleveland and Indianapolis. Pittsburgh allowed a total of 16 points in those victories, as the Steelers faced a pair of backup quarterbacks in those games. Since beating Washington in the season opener, the Steelers have lost their other two games against NFC East foes, falling to Philadelphia and Dallas, while giving up an average of 34.5 points per game in those defeats. Pittsburgh has cashed the UNDER in six of the last eight games, as the Steelers are going for their first home win since Week 5 against the Jets.


Best Bet: New York +6

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 13
December 3, 2016


After watching the ‘under’ produce an 11-3 record in Week 11, the total pendulum swung the other way during the long holiday weekend with an 8-8 stalemate. Those results could’ve easily been 11-5 to the ‘under’ but three games flip-flopped with late fourth-quarter surges that helped ‘over’ tickets connect.


Dallas 31 Washington 26 (Over 53 ½) – 34 combined points in the 4th quarter
Tennessee 27 Chicago 21 (Over 42) – 17 total points in the final quarter, 14 from Chicago in final 8 minutes
Buffalo 28 Jacksonville 21 (Over 44) – 36 combined points in the 2nd half


As always, we apologize to those who had the ‘under’ in those contest and at the same time congratulate the winners. Through 12 weeks, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge with a 90-86-1 record through 12 weeks.


Home-Away Tendencies


There are no divisional games on tap for Week 13, which means a lot more of your handicapping will be based on current form. Along with following the streaks on hand, we’ve got some solid ‘home vs. away’ total angles to watch this weekend and for the final five weeks of the season.


-- Arizona has watched the ‘under’ go 6-0 at home behind a defensive unit that’s only surrendering 12.7 points per game.


-- The ‘over’ has gone 4-1 in San Diego’s five games at Qualcomm Stadium this season behind a great offense (32 PPG) and weak defense (25.6 PPG).


-- Oakland is 5-1 to the ‘over’ at home.


-- The Baltimore Ravens are allowing 14.3 PPG at home this season, which has helped the ‘under’ go 5-1.


-- The New York Giants haven’t been able to consistently score (18 PPG) on the road this season and that’s led to a 5-0 ‘under’ mark.


-- San Francisco has allowed a league-high 36.4 PPG on the road this season. The ‘over’ is 4-1 outside of Santa Clar.


-- The Philadelphia Eagles defense has struggled on the road (24.7 PPG) compared to at home (13 PPG) and that’s resulted in a 4-1-1 ‘over’ mark as visitors.


Inflated Numbers?


The highest total listed for Week 13 takes place between Detroit and New Orleans. The number is hovering between 52 and 53 points, which isn’t a surprise considering the venue (Superdome). The Saints are averaging 30.4 points per game on offense and the defense (27.9 PPG) is the third worst scoring unit in the league. Despite that perfect combination, New Orleans has only seen the ‘over’ go 6-5 this season. I’m guessing many still believe Detroit is known for its offense but the reason why this team is successful is because of the defense (21.6 PPG). The Lions have been super in their last five games, holding opponents to 17 PPG and that’s produced a 5-0 ‘under’ mark.


Other notable games with high numbers to watch are listed below.


Kansas City at Atlanta: This total (49) is clearly based on the Falcons, who lead the league in scoring offense (32.5 PPG). Kansas City has had trouble scoring (22.9 PPG) all season and I wouldn’t buy into last week’s 30-point outburst at Denver. Even though that game went ‘over’ the number, the Chiefs are clear-cut ‘under’ (8-3) team and the defense leads the league with 24 takeaways.


Buffalo at Oakland: I’m a little surprised this total has dropped from 49 ½ to 48 ½ as of Saturday morning but concerns over Oakland QB Derek Carr (finger) have been brought up. Still, the Raiders (9-2) and Bills (8-3) have been two of the best ‘over’ clubs this season. Oakland’s offense is one of the top units in the league and Buffalo’s attack is playing very well lately. The Bills are averaging 27.7 PPG in their last seven games and that’s led to a 6-1 ‘over’ mark. Traveling to the West Coast is never easy but Buffalo has posted 30 and 25 points in their first two games to Los Angeles and Seattle respectively. The Raiders defense isn’t close to those units and expecting Buffalo to get near those numbers seems very doable.


Washington at Arizona: Based on the Cardinals total tendencies (see above) at home, I’m surprised this number is this high. Plus, Arizona’s playoff hopes are in jeopardy and you’d expect a sense of urgency in the desert. A more compelling reason to lean ‘under’ is based on the Cardinals scoring defense (12.7 PPG) at home, which is the best in the league. Washington’s offense will be a nice test but not having tight end Jordan Reed (shoulder) is a big void to fill. The Redskins have been a great ‘over’ bet (9-2) this season but I believe this could be a flat spot for them after coming off the emotional holiday loss at Dallas.

Coast to Coast


The most popular total angle this season churned out more profits in Week 12 as the ‘over’ went 2-1 in games where teams from the West Coast are playing in the Eastern Time Zone.


Arizona 19 at Atlanta 38 (Over 49)
San Francisco 24 at Miami 31 (Over 45)
Seattle 5 at Tampa Bay 14 (Under 46)


Including the results from Week 12, the ‘over’ is now 13-2 (87%) with these matchups. If you include the numbers from last season when this trend picked up, the ‘over’ is 24-7 (77%) during this span.


We only have five matchups remaining (one Sunday) this season and if all five games happen to go ‘under’ the number, most bettors would still take any angle that hits at a 65 percent clip (13-7).


Week 13 – Los Angeles at New England: Make a note that this is the lowest total (44) the Patriots have seen since QB Tom Brady returned to the lineup.
Week 14 – Arizona at Miami, San Diego at Carolina
Week 15 – San Francisco at Atlanta
Week 16 – San Diego at Cleveland


Under the Lights


The ‘under’ posted a 2-1 mark in the primetime matchups last week and the overall mark for the season is 22-17-1 to the low side which includes this past result on Thursday between Dallas and Minnesota.


Carolina at Seattle: This pair has met six times in the last five seasons and the first three matchups were good old fashioned slugfests (16-12, 12-7, 13-9) but the last three encounters had the scoreboard operator working hard with an average combined score of 51 PPG. For the seventh installment, the oddsmakers expect somewhere in between and have the total listed at 44. You could point to the ‘over’ knowing both clubs are beat up on the defensive side of the ball but the travel toll on both teams this season has been a nightmare. Carolina has played better offensively on the road (27.2 PPG) and that effort has helped the ‘over’ go 4-1 in its road games. Surprisingly, Seattle’s defensive numbers have been better on the road (15.8 PPG) than at CenturyLink Field (18.4 PPG) this season.


Indianapolis at N.Y. Jets: This total (48 ½) seems a tad high but the Colts have been perfect to the ‘over’ (5-0) on the road this season. QB Andrew Luck is expected to return and with a few extra days to prepare, I’d expect the offense to play well in this spot. The Jets defense still garners a lot of respect but the numbers (24.2 PPG) tell a slightly different story. Indy’s defense (395 YPG) is far from great but can you trust QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets to do their part? New York has scored a combined 23 points in its last two home games and the ‘under’ connected easily in both.


Fearless Predictions


Tough holiday weekend ended ugly and the Buccaneers team total summed up the slate. We’ve got five weeks in the regular season left to erase the deficit ($430) and hopefully it starts in Week 13. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


Best Over: Tampa Bay-San Diego 47 ½


Best Under: Kansas City-Atlanta 49


Best Team Total: Under Baltimore 22


Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)


Over Tampa Bay-San Diego 38 ½
Under 49 Denver-Jacksonville
Over 39 ½ Buffalo-Oakland

 

[CNOTES]

SuperContest Picks - Week 13
December 3, 2016


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.


Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.


The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.


This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.


Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.


Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9


Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12


Week 13


1) Detroit +6 (564)
2) Atlanta -4 (516)
3) N.Y. Giants +6.5 (515)
4) Green Bay -6.5 (447)
5) Seattle -6.5 (417)


SUPERCONTEST WEEK 13 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections


Dallas (-3) 225 Minnesota (+3) 121


Denver (-4) 302 Jacksonville (+4) 290


Kansas City (+4) 338 Atlanta (-4) 516


Houston (+6.5) 165 Green Bay (-6.5) 447


Philadelphia (PK) 179 Cincinnati (PK) 334


Detroit (+6) 564 New Orleans (-6) 259


San Francisco (+1) 294 Chicago (-1) 173


Los Angeles (+13.5) 234 New England (-13.5) 145


Miami (+3) 267 Baltimore (-3) 381


Buffalo (+3) 396 Oakland (-3) 379


Tampa Bay (+3.5) 325 San Diego (-3.5) 269


Washington (+2.5) 408 Arizona (-2.5) 289


N.Y. Giants (+6.5) 515 Pittsburgh (-6.5) 226


Carolina (+6.5) 151 Seattle (-6.5) 417


Indianapolis (-2) 240 N.Y. Jets (+2) 196


WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage


1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%
4 1-4 4-16 20%
5 3-2 6-14 30%
6 1-3-1 5-19-1 21%
7 3-2 8-21-1 28%
8 3-2 11-23-1 32%
9 2-3 13-26-1 33%
10 0-5 13-31-1 29%
11 3-2 16-33-1 33%
12 5-0 21-33-1 38%

 

[CNOTES]

SNF - Panthers at Seahawks
December 3, 2016


When scanning the schedules for every team before the season started, Sunday night's Week 13 clash with Carolina visiting Seattle was circled as a certain top-5 game of the year. It's been the premier NFC match-up the last two seasons with the regular season meeting being a prelude to a playoff meeting and the winner making a Super Bowl appearance.


However, the Panthers (4-7) resume has fallen well below expectations following a physical Super Bowl loss to Denver. Cam Newton sulked, and the NFL didn't do his team any favors by scheduling a rematch for the first time ever in a Week 1 match-up, which ended in a another Denver win. Newton sulked some more, got beat up some more -- albeit unprotected by the refs, and the Super Bowl slump was underway with a 1-5 start.


Since then Carolina has won three of its last five, but the most noticeable difference, besides Newton not having fun and dabbing weekly, is the team finding ways to lose close games. Their last four losses have been by three points. Last season they found ways to win those games, including a fourth-quarter come back win at Seattle, which helped them gain home field throughout the playoffs.


Playoffs don't look to be in the Panthers future this season, but if Newton can somehow restore his confidence they can at least close out the season respectable and carry something over to 2017.


Meanwhile, the Seahawks (7-3-1) come off a shocking 14-5 loss at Tampa Bay which ended a three-game win streak against strong teams like Buffalo, New England and Philadelphia. Russell Wilson was showing signs that he was close to being 100 percent for the first time this season while continuing a Pete Carroll staple of dominating the second-half of a season. Since 2012, Seattle had gone 31-6 in November and December (one Jan. game) prior to the Tampa loss.


The good news for Seattle is that they get a couple of key defensive performers back from injury this week and the defense, despite not looking as strong as recent seasons, still leads the NFL allowing only 17 ppg. Seattle has won all five of their home games (3-2 ATS).


The Panthers have gone 1-4 on the road (1-3-1 ATS) with four of the games going Over the total. They are currently on a run of going 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine road games, which is part of the reason the spread keeps rising.


LINE MOVEMENT


The Westgate SuperBook opened Seattle -6.5 last Sunday night and the number briefly went to -7 on Monday, but Carolina money pushed it back down to -6.5. On Thursday, they were pushed back up to -7 and eventually to -7 (-120), where every book in town is sitting. The lone exception is the South Point at 7-flat because they don't add extra juice to sides. The total has dropped from 45 to 44.


WHO THEY BETTING?


"We're gonna being in trouble with the Seahawks because no one wants the Panthers," CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal said. "The Seahawks have been bet heavy at -6.5, and -7 and we're currently at -7 (-120)."


The Seahawks are tied into the Packers as one of the most popular risky teaser and parlay combinations of the day. In April when CG Tech books opened numbers on every game, the Seahawks were -3 for this one.


ROBERTS' RATING


I have Seattle three points better than Carolina on a neutral field and give the home field, one of the best in the NFL, a full three points which makes my true number for the game Seattle -6. I have Seattle tied with Dallas as the top rated teams in the NFC, two points behind NFL leader New England.


WEATHER


There's a 40 percent chance of showers in Seattle Sunday night with temperatures at 36 degrees and winds from the west up to 13 mph. Not exactly ideal conditions for passing, but it's really just a normal December night in Seattle.


KEY INJURIES


The Panthers biggest blow is not having LB Luke Kuechly (concussion and they'll also be without offensive-linemen Ryan Kalil, Gino Gradkowski, Daryl Williams and Michael Oher. Meanwile the injury riddled Seahawks have good news with DE Michael Bennett (knee), DB Earl Thomas (hamstring), CB Deashawn Snead (hamstring) and DE Damontre Moore (foot) all expected to play.


TRENDS


-- Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS against in last seven against NFC teams.
-- Carolina Over 7-2 in last nine following straight-up loss.
-- Carolina Over 12-3 in last 15 against winning teams.
-- Seattle is 10-1 ATS in last 11 Week 13 games.
-- Seattle is 1-5-1 ATS in last seven after scoring less that 15 points in previous game.
-- Seattle Under 12-2 in last 14 December games.


RECENT MEETINGS


The two teams met in Week 6 last season at Seattle and the Seahawks (-7) had a 23-14 lead in the fourth quarter only to see Carolina reel off 13 unanswered and win which kept Carolina undefeated at 5-0. Seattle would drop to 2-4, but go on to win seven of the next eight and make the playoffs where they'd play at Carolina in the Divisional Round. The Panthers (-2.5) jumped out to a 31-0 halftime lead and held on to win 31-24. Seattle had won five against Carolina straight before dropping those two last season. The last five meetings in Seattle have gone Over the total, as have the past three three meetings overall.


DIVISION ODDS


Five games remain and the Cardinals are three games behind Seattle in the NFC West, but the Westgate SuperBook called the race over and took the odds off the board. Meanwhile, Carolina, who opened the season as the 2-to-7 favorite to win the NFC South, are now being offered at 100-to-1. The Falcons are the 1-to-4 favorite with the Saints 9-to-2 followed by the Buccaneers at 7-to-1.


SUPER BOWL ODDS


Carolina was 12-to-1 to win it all before the season, but the Westgate will give you 300-to-1 now. Hey, you never know. Cam Newton is the type of dynamic player that can carry a team for two months. Seattle opened as the 8-to-1 co-favorite to win the Super Bowl, and they've been dropped to 7-to-1, but both Dallas (4/1) and New England (7/5) have passed them as favorites.


NEXT WEEK


The Westgate Superbook opened early Week 14 numbers on Tuesday and posted Seattle -2.5 (-120) at Green Bay. Carolina is -2.5 at home against San Diego.

 

[CNOTES]

Essential Week 13 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday


The Giants have won 6 in a row, going 5-1 ATS in the process. Big Blue is currently a 6-point road dog in Pittsburgh in Week 13.

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5, 49)


* Kansas City has survived despite a mediocre offense that has topped 300 total yards just once in the last four games. The Chiefs have missed star receiver Jeremy Maclin, who has been sidelined for three straight games with a groin injury, but his absence has helped open up more playing time for rookie speedster Tyreek Hill, who last week became the first player since Gale Sayers in 1965 to record rushing, receiving and return touchdowns in the same game. Kansas City’s saving grace has been a defense that leads the league in takeaways (24) and features dynamic pass rushers Justin Houston and Dee Ford.


* Atlanta’s offense is one of the best in the league and features a prolific duo in quarterback Matt Ryan and receiver Julio Jones, who leads the league in receiving yards (1,140) and recorded 108 and two touchdowns in Atlanta’s 40-24 win at Kansas City in 2012. The backfield combination of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman gives the Falcons decent balance and will need to be effective to keep the Chiefs’ defense honest. The Falcons’ most glaring weakness is their pass defense, which ranks last in the league but has held three of its last four opponents under 300 passing yards.


LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened the week as 3.5-home favorites and that number has been steadily going up, as of Friday afternoon the line has grown to 5.5. The total opened at 49 and has remained there all week. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Chiefs are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
* Falcons are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 games overall.
* Under is 7-1 in Falcons last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.




Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 40.5)


* Tannehill likely will be without one of his weapons on Sunday in Parker, who missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a back injury. "Right now, this moment, we got to make sure we have a plan in place if he doesn't make it," offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen said of 23-year-old Parker, who has 16 receptions for 246 yards in his last three games. "If he does make it, it's going to be at the last hour. That would be awesome. We're hoping so, but right now we're preparing for the worst." Jarvis Landry leads Miami in receptions (64) and receiving yards (733) while fellow wideout Kenny Stills has three of his team-best five touchdowns in his last five games.


* Baltimore's second-ranked defense (297.8 yards per game) is led by linebacker Terrell Suggs, who recorded two sacks and two forced fumbles last week and three of each in the last three contests. Suggs hasn't been shy against the Dolphins, collecting at least one sack in each of his seven career encounters. Top cornerback Jimmy Smith is in line to return after a two-game absence due to a back injury and will likely shadow Landry.


LINE HISTORY: The Ravens opened the week as 3.5-point home favorites and that line has dropped to 3. The total opened at 41.5 and has faded one full point to 40.5. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
* Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings.




San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (PK, 43.5)


* Kaepernick tried to take the game into his own hands last week and nearly succeeded but the quarterback, who has surged into the national limelight for anything but football recently, was stopped just shy of the goal line on the game's final play in the 31-24 loss. Still, it was his best day as a quarterback since 2014 when he was entrenched as a dual threat viewed as one off the game's top playmakers. The Niners' lone win of the season was a 28-0 whitewashing of the Rams on opening day and they rank 29th in the NFL in scoring (20.7 points) and 30th in passing (198 yards a game)


* Sunday will be a chance for Barkley to see if he can build on his solid second half of last week despite the Bears' vast shortcomings in the receiving game. Chicago, which is still without top receiver Alshon Jeffery (suspension) for two more weeks and placed tight end Zach Miller (foot) on injured reserve a week ago, could also be missing Eddie Royal due to a toe injury. Regardless, look for Jordan Howard to carry the ball a lot as the Niners have allowed an NFL-worst 171.8 rushing yards per game and Howard ranks second to Ezekiel Elliott in rushing for rookies with 766 yards and two touchdowns.


LINE HISTORY: The Bears opened as 2.5-home favorites and the public has driven that line down to a PK. The total opened at 42.5 and that has been bet up to 43.5. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* 49ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.




Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5, 42)


* Wide receiver Jordan Matthews was limited in Thursday's practice as he attempts to work his way back from a right ankle injury that hampered him against the Packers. Matthews' availability is key for Wentz, as the former leads the team in receptions (57), targets (90), receiving yards (686) and receiving touchdowns (three). Tight end Zach Ertz has stepped up in the passing game, reeling in 23 receptions in the last four weeks. Running back Ryan Mathews (team-leading 427 yards, seven TDs) did not practice on Thursday due to a knee injury and is in jeopardy of missing his second straight game.


* Cincinnati has won only one of its last seven games to put its streak of five consecutive playoff appearances on life support, and losing the electric Gio Bernard and Green hasn't helped matters. Running back Jeremy Hill has been limited to just 83 yards in the last two contests, but added an unexpected boost in the passing game on Sunday with six catches for 61 yards in a 19-14 loss to Baltimore. Veteran wideout Brandon LaFell has struggled to pick up the slack in the absence of Green, who was spotted working on the team's rehab field during Thursday's practice.


LINE HISTORY: The Bengals opened this game as 1-point home dogs, but were bet all the way to Bengals -2. The total opened at 42 and hasn’t moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Eagles are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Bengals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Over is 9-1 in Eagles last 10 road games.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
* Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings.



Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 44.5)


* Osweiler is under heavy criticism after throwing three interceptions in the loss to the Chargers, and his average of 5.77 yards per attempt is the worst among qualifying quarterbacks in the NFL. "Our job as an offensive unit is to score touchdowns and put together multiple drives that result in touchdowns every single week," Osweiler told reporters. "And we've struggled with that this year. And I can't quite put my thumb on that, but I will certainly always stand up and point the finger at myself." Coach Bill O'Brien dismissed the idea of replacing Osweiler, who signed a $72 million free-agent deal in the offseason, with backup Tom Savage.


* Green Bay came out of its victory on Monday night banged up at key positions, with Rodgers battling a hamstring strain and linebacker Clay Matthews suffering a separated shoulder. Coach Mike McCarthy gave the team the day off from practice on Wednesday to let everyone rest and does not see the team making big adjustments offensively to accommodate for Rodgers' decreased mobility. "We'll see how he is, movement-wise," McCarthy told reporters. "But with that, you've got to make sure he's got more answers for later in the time clock of the play then he did when he can't move out of the pocket."


LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as 6-point home favorites and were pumped up to 7, but has since settled at 6.5. The total opened at 45.5 and has been bet down to 44.5. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Texans are 5-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
* Over is 4-0 in Texans last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games overall.




Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars (3.5, 40)


* After picking up Super Bowl MVP honors in February, Von Miller could add another prestigious title should he continue on his impressive path: NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Miller recorded a career high-tying three of his league-best 12.5 sacks versus the Chiefs and is inching closer to his personal best of 18.5 (2012). Rookie running back Devontae Booker has proven to be a workhorse over the last two weeks, recording 24 carries in each contest while totaling 155 yards. He'll look to exploit a Jaguars' defense that is being gouged for 116 yards on the ground.


* Defensive tackle Malik Jackson made no bones about looking forward to his Rocky Mountain reunion. "This is the game," said Jackson, who signed with Jacksonville in March after spending four seasons in Denver. "When I first signed here, I realized we were playing Denver this year and I just looked forward to it, the old team, to show those guys who I am on another team." Jackson recorded two sacks last week versus the Bills and his 4.5 on the season are just 1.5 shy of the career he he set in 2013.


LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened up as 4.5-point road favorites and was quickly bet up to 5, before fading late in the week to 3.5. The total opened a 42 and has been bet down to 40.5. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Broncos are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 13.
* Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 5-1 in Jaguars last 6 vs. AFC.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
* Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.




Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots (-13, 44)


* Los Angeles went four straight games scoring 10 points or fewer prior to last week's 49-21 loss in New Orleans, a game in which it did all its scoring in the first half behind three scoring passes from Goff. The No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft has 348 yards in his first two games and is not getting much help from running back Todd Gurley, who is averaging 3.1 yards per carry and has rushed for only two touchdowns in his last eight games. Kenny Britt has been the top receiving target by a wide margin with 54 receptions for 788 yards and four scores. The Rams' defense features a standout defensive tackle in Aaron Donald and ranked seventh against the pass at 227.5 yards per game.


* Brady battled an ailing knee to beat the New York Jets last week on a late touchdown pass, but he told a radio station on Thursday night that "I'll be feeling a lot better than I was feeling last week." The loss of Gronkowski is impossible to replace -- he had three 100-yard games and 21 catches for touchdowns in Brady's first four games after the quarterback returned from a four-game suspension. The Patriots have a nice backup play in tight end Martellus Bennett, who has three 100-yard games, while rookie Malcolm Mitchell and the return of running back Dion Lewis have added a spark to the passing game. New England ranks third with an average of 17.9 points permitted.


LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened the week as 13-point favorites and were briefly up to 13.5 mid-week before returning to 13. The total opened at 45.5 and has dropped down to 44. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Rams are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 7-0 in Rams last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.



Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-6, 53.5)


* Detroit has survived a lackluster ground game thanks to the maturation of Matthew Stafford, who has completed 66.8 percent of his passes for 19 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Stafford has thrown scoring passes to seven different targets - including leading receiver Golden Tate, who caught two in last year’s win over the Saints. Detroit’s defense has stepped up its effort of late, allowed fewer than 300 total yards on average over the last four games and holding three straight opponents under 90 yards rushing.


* New Orleans again possesses one of the league’s most prolific offenses but hasn’t been able to consistently make stops on defense. Veteran Drew Brees leads the league in passing yards (3,587) and touchdown passes (30) and has led three game-winning drives in the fourth quarter, while Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower give the Saints a viable running game. The defense has turned it up the last two games, holding Carolina and Los Angeles under 250 total yards after failing to keep an opponent under 325 in the first nine contests.


LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened the week as 4-point home favorites and that number has grown two full points over the week to 6. The total opened the week at 53.5 and has remained there all week. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Lions last 5 games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Saints last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.




Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders (-3, 48.5)


* Buffalo hopes to have Marcell Dareus on the field Sunday after the defensive tackle sat out the latter stages of last week's victory over Jacksonville with an abdominal strain and has been limited at practice. "I think he's going to be OK," coach Rex Ryan told the team's website. "I'm no doctor, so I can't tell you the issue that he had, but he feels confident that he's going to be ready to roll, and I feel the same way." The Bills will be without Seantrel Henderson, however, as the offensive tackle received a 10-game suspension from the NFL for violating the league's Policy and Program for Substances of Abuse. Buffalo placed wide receiver Walt Powell and defensive tackle Corbin Bryant (shoulder) on injured reserve, signing Dez Lewis and DeAndre Coleman from the practice squad to respectively replace them, and also inked tight end Logan Thomas from Detroit's practice squad to fill Henderson's roster spot.


* Carr has put himself in the conversation for the MVP award this season thanks in part to the five fourth-quarter comebacks he has orchestrated. He has led nine game-winning drives in the final period or overtime since 2015, which puts him one behind Detroit's Matthew Stafford for the most in the league in that span. Oakland may have another player in the running for MVP in Khalil Mack, who was named both the AFC Defensive Player of the Month for November and the conference's Defensive Player of the Week - for the second time this season - after becoming the first player to record a sack, interception-return touchdown, forced fumble and fumble recovery in the same game since Charles Woodson accomplished the feat in 2009.


LINE HISTORY: The Raiders open this game as 3.5-home favorites, that was bet down to 3 early in the week and that number has held firm. The total opened at 49.5 and has been dropped to 48. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Raiders are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-1 in Bills last 7 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.




Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 48.5)


* Kirk Cousins is playing out the season under the franchise tag and continues to give the team reasons to sign him to a long-term extension. Cousins threw for 449 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions in the 31-26 loss at Dallas - the second time in the last four games he went over 440 yards and his third contest in a row without an interception. "Much like any other job, as you perform it longer in the same role, you're going to get comfortable and say, 'OK, I've been here, I've done this, I can do this,'" Cousins explained to reporters.


* Arizona surrendered a total of 68 points in losses at Minnesota and Atlanta in its last two games, and Arians hinted at selfishness as the cause. "I thought, defensively, we had some guys get out of their lane again and try to do too much," he told reporters, "tried to get on the stat sheet instead of just doing their job." Safety Tyrann Mathieu played against the Falcons last week but described himself as "limited" due to a shoulder injury while cornerback Marcus Cooper recorded a career-high nine tackles.


LINE HISTORY: The Cardinals opened this NFC showdown as 2.5 home favorites and the public seems happy with it, as the line hasn’t moved yet. The total opened at 49.5 and has dropped a point and half to 48. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Redskins are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Over is 10-1 in Redskins last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games following a ATS loss.



New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 48.5)


* New York's defense was among the worst in the league while going 6-10 last season, but one of the biggest reasons for the turnaround is safety Landon Collins, who was named the NFC Defensive Player of the Month on Thursday. Collins had three of his five interceptions in four games in November to earn the Giants' first monthly honor since Jason Pierre-Paul in 2011. Pierre-Paul is re-emerging as a force with 5.5 sacks over the past two weeks for New York, which has recorded 21 sacks during the winning streak. Beckham has multiple touchdowns receptions in three of the past six games while Manning has 15 scoring passes and six interceptions in that span.


* Pittsburgh stopped a four-game skid with back-to-back road wins at Cleveland and Indianapolis, but each victory came against an opponent with an untested quarterback. Brown, who is two yards shy of his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season, leads the NFL with 82 receptions and caught three touchdown passes last week to match his total from his previous six games combined. Running back Le'Veon Bell has scored in each of the last three games and has rushed for 266 yards in the past two while Roethlisberger is coming off his sixth game with at least three touchdown passes. Pittsburgh's defense allows 263.5 yards per game and will be tested by New York's passing attack.


LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened the week at 5.5-home favorites and have been bet up to 6. The total opened at an even 50 and has been slowly moving down all week, settling at 48.5. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Giants are 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
* Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 6-0 in Steelers last 6 games following a ATS win.




Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Diego Chargers (-3.5, 47.5)


* Tampa Bay's defense likely is salivating at the prospect of facing San Diego, as it has recorded 18 takeaways in its last seven games while the Chargers enter Week 13 leading the league with 23 turnovers. The team ranks 24th in total defense (369.3 yards per game) but is tied for 13th in scoring defense (264 points) as it has clamped down during its winning streak, allowing a total of 32 points in the three games after yielding 73 over the previous two contests. Jameis Winston has been on fire of late, throwing for 1,573 yards and 13 touchdowns in his last six games with only three interceptions, while Mike Evans is tied for the league lead with 10 TD receptions and has hauled in five scoring passes in his last five road contests.


* Despite its turnover total, San Diego will provide a challenge to Tampa Bay's defense as it possesses the fifth-best passing offense (271.5 yards) and fourth-ranked scoring offense (313 points) in the league. Philip Rivers is fourth in the NFL with 3,128 passing yards and tied for fifth with 23 touchdown passes but also is one interception off the league lead of 13. The veteran has eclipsed the 3,000-yard plateau for the 11th consecutive season, which has him tied for the fourth-longest such streak in NFL history.


LINE HISTORY: The Chargers opened as 3.5-home favorites and were briefly bet up to 4, before fading back to the opening number. The total started the week at 46.5 and has risen a full point to 47.5. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Chargers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
* Over is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

 

[CNOTES]

The Over is a white-hot wager when the snow blows into NFL betting


Going back to 2004, NFL games with snow have finished with a 24-9-1 Over/Under record – topping the total 73 percent of the time.


December isn’t wasting any time making its presence felt in Week 13 of the NFL season, with snow in the forecast for two games Sunday.


Weather reports in Chicago are calling for three inches of the white stuff, just in time for the Bears’ home stand against the San Francisco 49ers (-2, 43). And in another NFC North venue, Lambeau Field will live up to its “frozen tundra” billing with similar weather expected for the Green Bay Packers’ game versus the Houston Texans (+6, 44.5).


Snow is the most misunderstood element when it comes to its impact on the football game. While the knee-jerk reaction to less-than-ideal playing conditions it to bet the Under, history has shown that slippery field conditions favor the Over. And so they should, with the ball carrier having the advantage over the tackler, simply by knowing which way he’s going to go.


Going back to 2004 (when we first started record game day weather), regular season games with snow have finished with a 24-9-1 Over/Under record – topping the total 73 percent of the time. Those games have featured an average total of 45.18 points versus a closing betting total of just 40.6, with the final score blowing away the number by more than 4.5 points.


The Over in snow games has been even more profitable since 2009, with those wintery wonderlands producing a 14-3 Over/Under mark, for an 82 percent Over windfall. NFL teams posted an average of 53.59 total points against an average total of 42.6, soaring Over the total by nearly 11 points per game.


As it pertains to the pointspread outcomes, you would think teams from cold climates would be more than used to playing in snow and inclement weather, therefor giving them an edge at the sportsbook. But it’s actually been the opposite, with road teams posting a 20-13-1 ATS record (17-17 SU) in snow games since 2004, winning by an average score of 23-22.18 against an average spread of +2.53 points.


In fact, going back to the 2010 NFL season, home teams are a dismal 4-10 ATS in snow games, getting outscored by an average final of 30.78-24.57 while facing an average pointspread of -1.32.


Sunday’s San Francisco-Chicago total opened at 42.5 and has moved to 43 points while the Houston-Green Bay number has dropped from 46.5 to 44.5. The Bears are 1-2 SU and ATS with a 2-1 O/U record at home in the snow, while the Packers are 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS and 3-1 O/U when winter weather comes to Lambeau.

 

[CNOTES]

Light snow in Green Bay today and cold, light rain (maybe wet snow) in Chicago.
Other than those 2 cities, conditions s/b dry w/light winds.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Sunday, December 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday Night Football betting preview: Panthers at Seahawks
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Seattle will be looking for some payback when Carolina comes to town after the Panthers eliminated the Seahawks from the playoffs last season.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 44)

The Carolina Panthers may have to run the table to have a chance to return to the postseason as they prepare to visit the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night in a matchup of the past two Super Bowl losers. Carolina, which finished 15-1 last season. is coming off a 35-32 loss at Oakland last week to drop into last place in the AFC South with a 4-7 mark.

"We'll just keep fighting, keep playing," Panthers coach Ron Rivera said. "Now we still have an opportunity. We'll see what happens." Carolina has won only once in five road games and will be trying to win at one of the league's toughest venues -- Seattle is a perfect 5-0 at CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks are coming off a 14-5 loss at Tampa Bay -- a division rival of the Panthers -- in which they failed to score a touchdown for the third time. Still, Seattle owns a comfortable three-game lead over Arizona atop the NFC West.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Panthers (+1.5) - Seahawks (-4) + home field (-3) = Seahawks -5.5

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened the week as 6.5-point home favorites against their NFC rivals from Carolina and that line has been growing all week up to 7.5. The total hit the board at 45 and has inched down during the week to 44. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for CenturyLink Field is calling for plenty of clouds with a passing shower or two, standard Seattle weather. There will be minimal winds from the southeast between 7-9 mph and temperatures in the mid-30’s at kickoff.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Panthers were on a 22-2 SU run entering Super Bowl 50, but have now gone just 4-8 SU in their past twelve games. An emotionally draining loss at Oakland last week as Carolina overcame a 7-24 halftime deficit with 25 straight points to take a 32-24 lead in the second half before a narrow 32-35 loss. Carolina was an underdog for the first time all season in that game and narrowly covered the closing line as a 3.5-point underdog."

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The Seahawks are coming off their worst offensive performance of the season scoring only 5 points last week against Tampa Bay. We opened the Seahawks as 6.5 point favorites at home to the Panthers and bounced between the -6.5 and -7 all week until it finally settled at our current number of Seahawks -7.5, where the Seahawks are getting 60% of the action to cover."

INJURY REPORT:

Carolina - WR Kelvin Benjamin (probable, shoulder), DT Kawann Short (questionable, back), WR Philly Brown (questionable, shoulder), DE Ryan Delaire (questionable, knee), OT Daryl Williams (questionable, ankle), DE Mario Addison (out, foot), S Kurt Coleman (out, concussion), LB Luke Kuechly (out indefinitely, concussion), C Ryan Kalil (IR, shoulder), C Gino Gradkowski (IR, knee)

Seattle - RB Troymaine Pope (probable, ankle), DE Damonte Moore (probable, foot), S Earl Thomas (probable, hamstring), TE Jimmy Graham (probable, knee), DE Michael Bennett (probable, knee), C Justin Britt (probable, ankle), WR Paul Richardson (questionable, hamstring), LB Jordan Tripp (questionable, thigh), DB Deshawn Shead (questionable, hamstring), LB Brock Coyle (questionable, foot), TE Luke Wilson (doubtful, knee)

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (4-7 SU, 3-7-1 ATS, 6-5 O/U): Carolina's last four games -- and six of the past seven -- have been decided by three points and it is 2-4 in those games, along with a one-point defeat at Denver in the season opener. Quarterback Cam Newton had a passer rating above 100 in half of his 16 games en route to winning league MVP honors last season, but he has reached triple digits once this year and has completed less than 60 percent of his passes in six of 10 games. Running back Jonathan Stewart finally broke out with 96 yards rushing and two touchdowns in last week's loss after averaging 2.7 yards per carry in his previous three games. Carolina ranks second against the run (79.5 yards) but 29th versus the pass (275.2).

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (7–3-1 SU, 6-5 ATS, 5-6 O/U): Seattle amassed 88 points during a three-game winning streak prior to last week's dud against the Buccaneers, in which quarterback Russell Wilson threw for a season-low 151 yards and was intercepted twice -- matching his season total from the first 10 games. Running back Thomas Rawls was limited to 38 yards on 12 carries in his second game back from a broken leg, although Wilson rushed for a season-high 80 yards. Star safety Earl Thomas was a full participant in practice Thursday after missing the first game of his career last week while defensive end Michael Bennett could return to the lineup for the first time since Week 7. The Seahawks are allowing a league-low 17 points per game.

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
* Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Over is 7-1 in Panthers last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle.

CONSENSUS: The road Panthers are getting 54 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 51 percent of the total action.
NFL

Sunday, December 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday Night Football betting preview: Panthers at Seahawks
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Seattle will be looking for some payback when Carolina comes to town after the Panthers eliminated the Seahawks from the playoffs last season.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 44)

The Carolina Panthers may have to run the table to have a chance to return to the postseason as they prepare to visit the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night in a matchup of the past two Super Bowl losers. Carolina, which finished 15-1 last season. is coming off a 35-32 loss at Oakland last week to drop into last place in the AFC South with a 4-7 mark.

"We'll just keep fighting, keep playing," Panthers coach Ron Rivera said. "Now we still have an opportunity. We'll see what happens." Carolina has won only once in five road games and will be trying to win at one of the league's toughest venues -- Seattle is a perfect 5-0 at CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks are coming off a 14-5 loss at Tampa Bay -- a division rival of the Panthers -- in which they failed to score a touchdown for the third time. Still, Seattle owns a comfortable three-game lead over Arizona atop the NFC West.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Panthers (+1.5) - Seahawks (-4) + home field (-3) = Seahawks -5.5

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened the week as 6.5-point home favorites against their NFC rivals from Carolina and that line has been growing all week up to 7.5. The total hit the board at 45 and has inched down during the week to 44. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for CenturyLink Field is calling for plenty of clouds with a passing shower or two, standard Seattle weather. There will be minimal winds from the southeast between 7-9 mph and temperatures in the mid-30’s at kickoff.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Panthers were on a 22-2 SU run entering Super Bowl 50, but have now gone just 4-8 SU in their past twelve games. An emotionally draining loss at Oakland last week as Carolina overcame a 7-24 halftime deficit with 25 straight points to take a 32-24 lead in the second half before a narrow 32-35 loss. Carolina was an underdog for the first time all season in that game and narrowly covered the closing line as a 3.5-point underdog."

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The Seahawks are coming off their worst offensive performance of the season scoring only 5 points last week against Tampa Bay. We opened the Seahawks as 6.5 point favorites at home to the Panthers and bounced between the -6.5 and -7 all week until it finally settled at our current number of Seahawks -7.5, where the Seahawks are getting 60% of the action to cover."

INJURY REPORT:

Carolina - WR Kelvin Benjamin (probable, shoulder), DT Kawann Short (questionable, back), WR Philly Brown (questionable, shoulder), DE Ryan Delaire (questionable, knee), OT Daryl Williams (questionable, ankle), DE Mario Addison (out, foot), S Kurt Coleman (out, concussion), LB Luke Kuechly (out indefinitely, concussion), C Ryan Kalil (IR, shoulder), C Gino Gradkowski (IR, knee)

Seattle - RB Troymaine Pope (probable, ankle), DE Damonte Moore (probable, foot), S Earl Thomas (probable, hamstring), TE Jimmy Graham (probable, knee), DE Michael Bennett (probable, knee), C Justin Britt (probable, ankle), WR Paul Richardson (questionable, hamstring), LB Jordan Tripp (questionable, thigh), DB Deshawn Shead (questionable, hamstring), LB Brock Coyle (questionable, foot), TE Luke Wilson (doubtful, knee)

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (4-7 SU, 3-7-1 ATS, 6-5 O/U): Carolina's last four games -- and six of the past seven -- have been decided by three points and it is 2-4 in those games, along with a one-point defeat at Denver in the season opener. Quarterback Cam Newton had a passer rating above 100 in half of his 16 games en route to winning league MVP honors last season, but he has reached triple digits once this year and has completed less than 60 percent of his passes in six of 10 games. Running back Jonathan Stewart finally broke out with 96 yards rushing and two touchdowns in last week's loss after averaging 2.7 yards per carry in his previous three games. Carolina ranks second against the run (79.5 yards) but 29th versus the pass (275.2).

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (7–3-1 SU, 6-5 ATS, 5-6 O/U): Seattle amassed 88 points during a three-game winning streak prior to last week's dud against the Buccaneers, in which quarterback Russell Wilson threw for a season-low 151 yards and was intercepted twice -- matching his season total from the first 10 games. Running back Thomas Rawls was limited to 38 yards on 12 carries in his second game back from a broken leg, although Wilson rushed for a season-high 80 yards. Star safety Earl Thomas was a full participant in practice Thursday after missing the first game of his career last week while defensive end Michael Bennett could return to the lineup for the first time since Week 7. The Seahawks are allowing a league-low 17 points per game.

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
* Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Over is 7-1 in Panthers last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle.

CONSENSUS: The road Panthers are getting 54 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 51 percent of the total action.

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 4


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


HOU at GB 01:00 PM


GB -6.5 ***** ( SNOW FAVORITE OF THE DAY )


U 44.5 *****


DET at NO 01:00 PM


DET +6.5


U 53.0 *****


KC at ATL 01:00 PM


KC +4.5 ***** ( NFL DOG # 1 )


U 50.0


LA at NE 01:00 PM

NE -13.0


O 44.5


DEN at JAC 01:00 PM


JAC +3.5


U 39.0 *****


PHI at CIN 01:00 PM


PHI +1.5


O 42.0 *****


MIA at BAL 01:00 PM


BAL -3.5 *****


O 41.5


SF at CHI 01:00 PM


SF -1.0 *****


U 44.0 ***** ( TOTAL OF THE DAY )


BUF at OAK 04:05 PM


BUF +3.0 ***** ( DOG OF THE DAY # 2 )


O 48.5


NYG at PIT 04:25 PM


PIT -6.5


O 49.5


WAS at ARI 04:25 PM


WAS +2.5 ***** ( DOG OF THE DAY # 3 )


U 48.5


TB at SD 04:25 PM


TB +3.5 ***** ( DOG OF THE DAY # 3 )


O 49.0


CAR at SEA 08:30 PM


SEA -7.5


U 44.0

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Capsules
December 5, 2016


OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) Derek Carr threw for 260 yards and two touchdowns to rally the Oakland Raiders to their biggest comeback in 16 years with a 38-24 victory over the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.


After falling behind 24-9 following touchdowns on the first two drives of the second half for Buffalo (6-6), the Raiders (10-2) took the game over with 29 straight points and won their sixth straight to remain one game ahead of Kansas City in the tough AFC West.


Oakland scored touchdowns on three straight drives, including scoring strikes from Carr to Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper for his sixth fourth-quarter comeback of the season. This was the biggest comeback for the Raiders since overcoming a 21-point deficit to Indianapolis to win 38-31 on Sept. 10, 2000.


The defense also tightened by forcing three straight three-and-outs and then getting a turnover when Khalil Mack deflected Tyrod Taylor's pass that Nate Allen intercepted .


SEAHAWKS 40, PANTHERS 7


SEATTLE (AP) - Thomas Rawls ran for 103 yards and two touchdowns in the first half, Tyler Lockett took a reverse 75 yards for a score to open the second half and Seattle routed Carolina.


Another prime-time game in Seattle was clouded with odd story lines right from the outset when Carolina quarterback Cam Newton was benched for the first play, only to watch backup Derek Anderson throw an interception.


The Seahawks (8-3-1) rolled up a season-high 534 yards and kept a three-game lead over Arizona in the division with four remaining.


Rawls finished with 106 yards on 15 carries, quiet in the second half after briefly being checked for a concussion. Russell Wilson was 26 of 36 for 277 yards and a touchdown.


Seattle safety Earl Thomas broke a bone in his lower left leg during a first-half collision with teammate Kam Chancellor while trying to intercept Newton's pass. X-rays revealed a ''cracked tibia,'' coach Pete Carroll told Seattle's radio broadcast.


Carolina dropped to 4-8.


CHIEFS 29, FALCONS 28


ATLANTA (AP) - Eric Berry returned an interception for a touchdown, and then brought back another pick for a 2-point conversion that gave Kansas City an improbable victory over Atlanta.


The Falcons (7-5), rallying from a 27-16 deficit, went ahead 28-27 on Matt Ryan's 5-yard touchdown pass to Aldrick Robinson with 4:32 remaining.


Atlanta decided to go for 2, looking to stretch the margin to a field goal. But Berry stepped in front of Ryan's pass and ran 99 yards the other way to give the Chiefs (9-3) their winning margin. It came after Denver won a game in similar fashion last month, returning a blocked PAT for the winning points at New Orleans.


Berry had another huge play with less than a minute to go in the first half, picking off Ryan's pass over the middle and bringing it back 37 yards for a touchdown. After reaching the end zone, the suburban Atlanta native handed the ball to his mother sitting in the stands at the Georgia Dome.


Those weren't the only big plays for the Chiefs.


CARSDINALS 31, REDSKINS 23


GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) - Carson Palmer threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns and David Johnson scored twice.


The loss by the Redskins (6-5-1) clinched a playoff spot for the 11-1 Dallas Cowboys.


Palmer's 25-yard touchdown pass to Johnson with 11:09 to play put Arizona ahead 24-20, the fourth lead change of the second half.


After a Washington field goal, Palmer's 42-yard pass to J.J. Nelson with 1:56 padded gave the Cardinals (5-6-1) a 31-23 lead.


Washington drove to the Arizona 28-yard line before Patrick Peterson's interception of Kirk Cousins' pass with 41 seconds left sealed the victory.


Johnson, who also scored on a 1-yard run, became the second player in NFL history to top 100 yards from scrimmage in the first 12 games of a season. Edgerrin James was the other.


STEELERS 24, GIANTS 14


PITTSBURGH (AP) - Ben Roethlisberger passed for 289 yards and two touchdowns, Le'Veon Bell rolled up 182 yards of total offense, and Pittsburgh's resurgent defense harassed Eli Manning into a flurry of mistakes.


Antonio Brown edged good buddy Odell Beckham Jr. in their personal showdown, catching six passes for 54 yards and an acrobatic scoring grab at the back of the end zone. Tight end Ladarius Green added six receptions for 110 yards, both career highs, and a touchdown as the Steelers (7-5) won their third straight to keep pace with Baltimore atop the AFC North.


Manning completed just 24 of 39 passes for 195 yards with two touchdowns and two picks in the red zone for the Giants (8-4), whose six-game run ended with a thud. Beckham was largely a non-factor despite a game-high 10 receptions for 100 yards.


BUCCANEERS 28, CHARGERS 21


SAN DIEGO (AP) - Jameis Winston threw a go-ahead, 12-yard touchdown pass to Cameron Brate midway through the fourth quarter and Keith Tandy intercepted Philip Rivers in the end zone with 2:56 left to give the Buccaneers their fourth straight victory.


Rivers had the Chargers on the move in the final minutes before Tandy got in front of a pass to Dontrelle Inman and picked it off. Tandy's momentum carried him into the end zone, giving the Bucs the ball on their 20. They ran out the clock.


The Bucs (7-5) pulled into a tie with Atlanta atop the NFC South.


Rivers threw two second-half interceptions, including Lavonte David's pick-6.


The Chargers (5-7) were trying to get back to .500 for the first time since Week 2.


PACKERS 21, TEXANS 13


GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) - Aaron Rodgers threw for 209 yards and two touchdowns, and the Packers pulled away with two fourth-quarter touchdowns.


The Packers (6-6) weathered snowy conditions at Lambeau Field, making just enough plays on the cold turf.


Brock Osweiler connected with DeAndre Hopkins for a 44-yard touchdown pass with 1:51 left to get within eight for Houston. Nick Novak missed the extra point, with footing slippery at Lambeau.


The Texans (6-6) had one last shot after the Packers failed to run out the clock. But Osweiler's last-ditch pass-and-lateral play from Houston's 12 with 4 seconds left failed, handing Houston its third straight loss and dropping it into a tie with Tennessee atop the AFC South.


Nelson finished with eight catches for 118 yards and a touchdown for Green Bay.


LIONS 28, SAINTS 13


NEW ORLEANS (AP) - Matthew Stafford passed for 341 yards and two touchdowns.


Golden Tate exploited a coverage breakdown on third-and-long for a 66-yard touchdown early in the fourth quarter when Detroit (8-4) was clinging to a six-point lead. The Lions, who've won seven of eight, dominated statistically, but four opportunities inside the New Orleans 20 ended with Matt Prater field goals, allowing the Saints (5-7) to stay close until the fourth quarter.


This time, however, the Lions pulled away for their most comfortable victory of the season after seven previous victory margins of one to seven points.


The Lions also became the first team in 60 Saints home games to stop Drew Brees from completing a touchdown pass, although tight end Coby Fleener had a pass bounce off his hands at the goal line.


RAVENS 38, DOLPHINS 6


BALTIMORE (AP) - Joe Flacco threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns, and the Ravens overwhelmed the Dolphins in the first half to end Miami's six-game winning streak.


Baltimore (7-5) led 24-0 at halftime behind Flacco and a dominant performance from the league's second-ranked defense. Flacco went 27 for 34 for 258 yards and three scores over the first 30 minutes, and the Ravens yielded only 115 yards and intercepted a Ryan Tannehill pass.


That was enough to provide the Ravens with their fourth win in five games. Miami also is 7-5.


Flacco finished with a franchise-record 36 completions in 47 attempts, by far his most impressive outing in an uneven season. He entered with 11 TD passes and 10 interceptions.


PATRIOTS 26, RAMS 10


FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) - Tom Brady became the NFL's career leader in victories by a quarterback, earning his 201st by throwing for 269 yards and a touchdown. Brady, who was 33 of 46, had tied Peyton Manning last week in a win over the New York Jets.


His lone touchdown came on a 14-yard pass to Chris Hogan in the first quarter. LeGarrette Blount scored the game's first touchdown , rumbling for a 43-yard, ankle-breaking score in the first quarter while spinning around safety Maurice Alexander in the process. He finished with 88 yards on 18 carries.


The Patriots (10-2) have won seven of their last eight.


On the same day that Los Angeles coach Jeff Fisher and general manager Les Snead were given contract extensions, the recently relocated Rams (4-8) proved they still have a long way to go after losing for the seventh time in eight outings.


BRONCOS 20, JAGUARS 10


JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) - Bradley Roby returned an interception 51 yards for a touchdown, helping the Broncos gain ground in the AFC playoff picture.


Roby picked off Blake Bortles' wobbler across the middle in the third quarter and went untouched the other way. Star linebacker Von Miller hit Bortles as he released the ball.


It was the 11th pick-6 of Bortles' three-year career and his third in the last four games. Houston and Detroit also returned interceptions for touchdowns in games the Jaguars lost by less than seven points.


The latest one resulted in a seventh consecutive loss for Jacksonville (2-10) and secured another miserable milestone for the small-market franchise. The Jaguars became the fifth team in NFL history to post double-digit losses in six consecutive seasons, joining Tampa Bay (1983-94), Detroit (2001-06), Oakland (2003-09) and Cleveland (2008-13).


Jacksonville had a chance to tie in the final minutes, but Bortles fumbled trying to make a play in the pocket.


The Broncos (8-4) rebounded from an overtime loss against Kansas City, and with Miami's loss at Baltimore, moved into position to get one of the conference's wild-card spots.


BENGALS 32, EAGLES 14

CINCINNATI (AP) - Andy Dalton threw a pair of touchdown passes and Cincinnati finally got its depleted offense moving without receiver A.J. Green.


The Bengals (4-7-1) got their first win since Oct. 23, beating a team that's in a swoon of its own. The Eagles (5-7) opened the season with three straight wins, but have dropped seven of nine.


Dalton had completions of 50, 44, 29, 23 and 21 yards. The Bengals scored on each of their first six possessions for a 29-0 lead, reinventing themselves with Green and running back Giovani Bernard sidelined by injuries. The previous time they scored on their first six possessions was 2009 against the Bears.


The only bad moment: Mike Nugent missed another PAT kick wide to the right, his fourth miss in a span of five tries. Nugent made field goals from 32, 33, 26 and 38 yards, the last one deflecting off the left upright.


BEARS 26, 49ERS 6


CHICAGO (AP) - Jordan Howard ran for 117 yards and a career-high three touchdowns and the Bears handed San Francisco its 11th straight loss.


The 49ers (1-11) extended their franchise-record losing streak and set a club low with 6 yards net passing on a day when Colin Kaepernick got lifted for Blaine Gabbert.


The Bears (3-9) finished with a season high in points and picked up a rare win in a matchup between two of the NFL's worst teams.


Matt Barkley, making his second start with Jay Cutler sidelined by a season-ending shoulder injury, went nearly the entire first half without a completion. But he led a touchdown drive near the end of the second quarter and finished 11 of 18 for 192 yards.

 

[CNOTES]

Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…….

Broncos 20, Jaguars 10— Jaguars have now lost seven games in a row; QB Bortles threw his 11th career pick-6 in this game- he has 10 career wins. Jags are -16 in turnovers their last eight games. First career win for rookie QB Paxton Lynch. AFC South underdogs are 7-13 vs spread, 2-6 at home.


Chiefs 29, Falcons 28— Eric Berry scored 8 points; he had a pick-6 in last 1:00 of first half when score was tied, then scored game-winning two points on a pick-2 in 4th quarter, after Falcons had taken a 28-27 lead. Atlanta also gave up a TD on a 55-yard fake punt. Over is 10-2 in Falcon games this season. Not a good day at all for the Atlanta coaches.


Packers 21, Texas 13— You say Texans should struggle in cold weather, being a dome team and all, but QB Osweiler grew up in Montana; shouldn’t he be used to it? Houston is 1-5 on road, 1-4 as road underdogs, losing away games by 27-18-18-7-8 points- its not the cold, they’re just bad on the road.


Bengals 32, Eagles 14— Philly has now lost seven of last nine games after its 3-0 start; Eagles lost last six road games, are 1-4 as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 1-7-6-5-11-18 points.


As far as rookie QB’s go, here are some W-L records of rookie QB’s:
John Elway 4-6, Troy Aikman 0-11, Eli Manning 1-6, Peyton Manning 3-13, Dan Marino 7-2. Oddly enough, Marino is only one of those five who never won a Super Bowl.


Lions 28, Saints 13— Didn’t see Sean Payton celebrating much on the sidelines today. Detroit is now 8-4, atop NFC North; this was first game all year they didn’t trail in 4th quarter. Lions are 4-1 as road underdogs this year. Last six Detroit games stayed under total.


Bears 26, 49ers 6— On a snowy day in Windy City, 49ers completed 5 of 15 passes for a net of six yards. Bears had six sacks in a game where neither side completed a pass in first quarter, but Chicago wound up 11-18/184 passing. Under is 4-1-1 in Chicago home games.


Patriots 26, Rams 10— My three favorite football movies:
1) Any Given Sunday 2) Invincible 3) Friday Night Lights


It is accurate to say that Sunday afternoon wasn’t a happy one in my living room.


On a happier note, some Christmas trivia: the Rockefeller Center Christmas tree in New York City is 94 feet tall and weighs over 30,000 pounds.


Ravens 38, Dolphins 6— Miami’s 6-game win streak was put to an emphatic end- this game was 24-0 at half; Ravens have won four of last five games- they’ve allowed 11.4 pts/game in last five home games.


Raiders 38, Bills 24— Buffalo led 24-9 halfway thru third quarter but got outscored 29-0 from that point on. On their last six drives, Oakland ran 34 plays for 230 yards and four TD’s, with two short TD drives of 38-16 yards. Over is 10-2 in Raider games this season.


Buffalo was -2 in turnovers; teams that were -2 or worse in turnovers are 7-64 in the NFL this season.


Buccaneers 28, Chargers 21— Tampa Bay has won four straight road games for first time ever; they’re 5-1 on road this year, NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 12-2 vs spread this season, 9-1 on road.


Bucs are tied with Atlanta atop NFC South and would be the #2 Wild Card now; as for San Diego, sounds like they’re moving to the new stadium in LA, which opens in 2019. They need to draft a QB in April, someone who will be in place as a starter when they try to sell tickets in their new location.


Cardinals 31, Redskins 23— Washington’s loss drops them out of the playoff picture, for now; they’re half-game behind the Wild Cards. Arizona was 10-16 on third down, and didn’t turn the ball over; they had turned it over nine times in previous four games. Over is 10-2 in Redskin games this season.


Steelers 24, Giants 14— Pittsburgh won its third straight game, allowing total of 30 points- they’re 4-1 as home favorites this year. Giants had 6-game win streak snapped, in game where Victor Cruz had zero targets. Under is 7-2 in Giants’ last nine games.