Cnotes 2016 NFL Betting Preview:

[CNOTES]

2016 NFL Betting Preview: Green Bay Packers


It’s never a bad idea to pick the Green Bay Packers to win games in the postseason. This season is no different, as many are projecting Aaron Rodgers and his Green and Yellow crew to get to Phoenix in February for Super Bowl 51.


The Packers play in the NFC North with the Bears, Vikings and Lions. Here is a look at the 2016 NFL Betting Preview for the Green Bay Packers.


Green Bay on Offense
The big news for Mike McCarthy’s offense is not the fact they have one of the best quarterbacks in all of the league. The fact that Jordy Nelson is back for the Packers is monstrous news. Nelson missed the entire season last year with a torn ACL.


Now, Nelson should join Randall Cobb as a tremendous duo. Cobb saw his numbers fall a little bit, without Nelson a season ago. Eddie Lacy appears serious about taking over as a dominating running back for Green Bay. If he does; that’s a pretty solid fearsome foursome for the Green Bay Packers.

Packers Defensively
Green Bay defensive coordinator Dom Capers knows this season is the year he must see a huge improvement in his defense. The unit took a step forward last season, but they must continue to improve if they want a shot at the Super Bowl.


Mike Daniels signed a huge extension in the offseason, and he will join Kenny Clark. Some other news for Green Bay; B.J. Raji retired, and Clay Matthews is going to move back outside. Julius Peppers continues to play at a high level, and will lineup opposite of Matthews.

Packers 2016 Schedule
The Green Bay Packers start their 2016 season with two straight road games. Green Bay is in Jacksonville to open it up, and then will travel to divisional rival Minnesota. The Packers first home game is in Week 3, as they host the Detroit Lions.


Once October arrives, the Packers will play three straight home games; with the New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears. The Packers then finish October on the road at Atlanta. In November, Green Bay starts with a home game against the Indianapolis Colts, before going on the road for three straight games. The Packers are in Tennessee, Washington and Philadelphia.


The final five games of the season for Green Bay start with two home games against the Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks, before a trip to Chicago, a home game against Minnesota, and a road trip to Detroit.

Betting on the Green Bay Packers
When you are looking to bet on the Green Bay Packers, you are going to have to be ready for them to be one of the Super Bowl contenders. If you bet early enough; taking the Packers to win Super Bowl 51 may not be a bad idea.


The Packers play in the NFC North and are listed at 11/1 to win the Super Bowl in February. The Packers are also given a pretty high win total for the 2016 season as well. The Packers win total is listed at 10.5.

 

[CNOTES]

Time Zone Trends
July 12, 2016


There isn’t a great deal of travel in the NFL compared to the NBA, MLB, and NHL due to the length of the season. However, flying across the country for a Sunday afternoon game isn’t the easiest task as many of these teams going either from the east coast to west coast or vice versa have struggled. The numbers were very telling last season that these teams struggled from a straight-up standpoint, but did those numbers translate from the against the spread perspective?


For the purposes of this discussion, ten teams that play in the Central and Mountain Time Zones were not included since they never travel more than two time zones during the season. These teams include the Bears, Cowboys, Broncos, Packers, Texans, Colts, Chiefs, Vikings, Saints, and Titans. The Cardinals are the exception to the rule since the state of Arizona doesn’t observe Daylight Savings Time as September through November this team plays on Pacific Time at home. From November through January, the Cardinals are on Mountain Time, so we’ll include them as one of the 22 teams that can travel three time zones.


In 2015, teams that play in the Eastern Time Zone traveled three time zones 16 times, as these clubs won straight-up only four times. However, these squads posted an 8-8 ATS record, as the only team that won twice out west was Cincinnati, who beat Oakland and San Francisco, while covering in a loss at Arizona. East coast teams that were listed as favorites compiled a 2-4 SU/ATS mark, but the underdogs struggled with a 2-8 SU record in spite of covering six of 10 times.


Flipping it around with the five teams that traveled from west to east (Cardinals, Raiders, Chargers, 49ers, and Seahawks), those squads put together a 6-10 SU and 9-6-1 ATS record in 16 opportunities last season. The ‘over’ hit in 11 of 16 games, as the Cardinals and 49ers each went 3-1 to the ‘over’ when traveling to the east coast. San Francisco was winless in four trips to the east coast, falling to the Steelers, Giants, Browns, and Lions with three of those defeats coming by double-digits.


This season, there are 43 situations in which teams travel three time zones, but that number has been jacked up due to the AFC East facing the NFC West and the NFC South taking on the AFC West in interconference play. With the Rams moving from St. Louis to Los Angeles this season, that makes for more opportunities of teams traveling across the country. The Rams, Cardinals, and 49ers all travel to the east coast four times each in 2016, while the Seahawks venture to the east coast for three contests.


The Buccaneers avoided long road trips in 2015, but Tampa Bay heads west for three separate trips this season. In Week 2, Tampa Bay travels to Arizona, one week after the Cardinals host the Patriots. The Bucs venture to California twice in a seven-week span, going to San Francisco in Week 7 and San Diego in Week 13. The Falcons also have it rough with three games on the west coast, including twice to the Golden State. Atlanta heads to Oakland in Week 2 and Los Angeles in Week 14, while making a trek to Seattle in Week 6 one week following a trip to face the defending champion Broncos in Denver.


Three times in 2016 teams will play consecutive games on the opposite coast, but all will likely remain there for those two weeks. The Panthers head west in Week 12 to battle the Raiders in Oakland, followed by a playoff rematch in Week 13 at Seattle. The Raiders travel to Florida for back-to-back games in Weeks 7 and 8 against Jacksonville and Tampa Bay, while the Dolphins go to California for contests against the Chargers in Week 10 and the Rams in Week 11.


Not one team in the AFC North (Bengals, Browns, Ravens, and Steelers) travels more than two time zones this season. The Giants are the only NFC East squad that doesn’t venture west of Texas, but New York battles Los Angeles in London in Week 7 (Cowboys excluded being in Central Time Zone).


As the Rams return to Los Angeles for the first time since 1994, the landscape of travel changes with no more trips to St. Louis. Four eastern teams make the longer trip from what would have been eastern Missouri to southern California this season with the Rams’ move as the Bills (Week 5), Panthers (Week 9), Dolphins (Week 11), and Falcons (Week 14) all travel to Los Angeles this season.

 

[CNOTES]

2016 NFL Betting Preview: New England Patriots

New England Offensive
Obviously, now with Tom Brady not under center, the New England Patriots could have a huge problem. The Patriots will turn to Jimmy Garoppolo once again. The Patriots should be fine with him at quarterback. New England head coach Bill Belichick has won 187 games on the season, and has a chance at 200.


The Patriots will throw the football to Rob Gronkowski. If the Patriots need a formation where they go two tight ends, sure Martellus Bennett could step up. The running game will feature Dion Lewis as the first chance running back.

Patriots on Defense
The New England Patriots have one of the strongest defenses in the National Football League. The Patriots have one of the top corner in the game in Malcolm Butler. Matt Patricia, the new defensive coordinator will use guys like Logan Ryan, Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung to contend for another title.


The Patriots lost Akiem Hicks, Domimique Easley and Chandler Jones, but look to pick up the pieces with Chris Long. The Patriots should be solid, but how solid will they have to be to win postseason games.

2016 Patriots Schedule
Clearly, the New England Patriots are going to be in a little more trouble to start the 2016 season without their quarterback. The Patriots have an interesting schedule during the season. They start the season at Arizona, before finishing the first month with games against Miami and Houston.


Then, in Week 4, the Patriots host the Buffalo Bills. New England then finishes October with a trip to Cleveland, a home game against Cincinnati, and then two road games; at Pittsburgh and Buffalo. November arrives, and you will see the Patriots play three games.


They take on Seattle, at home, followed by a trip to San Francisco and then the New York Jets. On Sunday, the Los Angeles Rams are at New England, followed by a home game against Baltimore. The final three games see the Patriots play at Denver and Miami, with a game against the Jets mixed in between.


Betting on the Patriots
It’s interesting what the betting lines have done for the New England Patriots. Obviously, now with Tom Brady missing the first quarter of the season, New England has had their odds changed. New England was 15/2 when they opened up betting at MyBookie.


Now, they have fallen to 9.5 – 1. For the win total, as of last checked, the Patriots came in at 10 wins. With a tough schedule, and a loss of the best quarterback in the game right now, it will be interesting to see what New England does. This is a tough bet!

 

[CNOTES]

2016 NFL Betting Preview: Houston Texans


Some changes have been made in Houston, but the core is back from their 2015 AFC South title. After starting 2-5, the Texans went on to finish 9-7 and won the divisional title over the Colts. The postseason did not go the way Bill O’Brien and Houston envisioned it.


The Kansas City Chiefs blew them out 30-0 at home. The Texans defense should be one of the best in the game, after finishing third last season. Brock Osweiler is there at quarterback, as they paid him for four seasons, and more than $70M. Let’s take a look at the 2016 NFL Betting Preview for the Houston Texans.


Houston Offensively
Not only did the Texans bring over Brock Osweiler, who was the back-up in Denver for Peyton Manning, they also brought in a new running back in Lamar Miller. Miller spent the first part of his NFL career in Miami. For Osweiler, he is known as fearless in the pocked, and at 6’8, can be hard to drag down at times.


DeAndre Hopkins is one of the top wide receivers in all of the National Football League. He caught 111 passes for more than 1,500 yards and 11 touchdowns a season ago. Will Fuller was drafted by the Texans, and should be a great complement to the stud Hopkins.


Texans Defense
There are certainly other players on the defensive unit for the Houston Texans, but all the talk will continue to be on the three time NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Last season, he recorded 17.5 sacks, and hit the quarterback 50 times. Romeo Crennel has been creative as the defensive coordinator to put Watt in different spots.


Whitney Mercilus is the second pass rusher for the Texans, and he had 12 sacks a season ago. Jadeveon Clowney hopes to contribute with an injury free season for the first time in his career. Kareem Jackson and Johnathan Joseph are the starting corners, and are both entering their sixth season as the starters.


Houston’s 2016 Schedule
The Houston Texans are going to start the 2016 season with two straight home games. The Chicago Bears and Kansas City Chiefs come to town to start the season. The Texans then go on the road to New England to wrap up the first month of the season.


In October, Houston plays every other team at home. Houston hosts Tennessee, Indianapolis and Detroit, with road games at Minnesota and Denver sandwiched in between. Moving on to November is where things could be interesting. The Texans have the first weekend off in November, before two straight road games at the Jacksonville Jaguars and Oakland Raiders.


The final game in November is at home against the San Diego Chargers. In December, the first of five games is at Green Bay, with a trip to Indianapolis to follow. The Texans then come home and will face the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals, before finishing the 2016 season on the road in Nashville, against the Tennessee Titans.


Betting on the Houston Texans
When you are betting on the Houston Texans, they are an underdog to win the division, behind the Indianapolis Colts. The best two bets that seem to be available for the Texans include winning the Super Bowl, and the win total.


The odds at MyBookie placed on the Houston Texans to win Super Bowl 51 in Phoenix are listed at 40/1. Finally, if you are looking at win totals for a future bet, the Houston Texans are given 8 wins as their odds. It’s pretty mixed how folks feel the Houston Texans will fare in 2016.

 

[CNOTES]

2016 NFL Betting Preview: Minnesota Vikings


The Minnesota Vikings are looking to get back to the postseason, after their heartbreaking postseason loss of a season ago. Last season, Mike Zimmer and his Vikings used 23 year old Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. The team was ranked 29th offensively a season ago.


Laquon Treadwell was the top pick for Minnesota, which the Vikings hope will give Bridgewater someone to throw to. Minnesota also added left guard Alex Boone and right tackle Andre Smith. Things are looking up for the Vikings, but will the Blair Walsh curse live on?

Minnesota on Offense
Norv Turner remains as the offensive coordinator for the Minnesota Vikings. The offense has been under fire, and will be again in 2016. The Vikings over the last couple seasons have not improved much offensively, especially on the line. Tony Sparano was hired to help out, but the line is still a question mark.


Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has won 17 games as the starting quarterback, which ties two guys by the name of Warren Moone and Brett Favre for most wins in their first two seasons. Minnesota will see 31 year old running back Adrian Peterson following his season, where he became just the third player in NFL history to lead the league in rushing at 30 years or older.


Defensive Unit for Vikings
Minnesota is known for their very aggressive style of defense, and their pressure oriented 4-3 scheme. When Zimmer arrived in Minnesota, the Vikings were allowing 30 points per game, and last year they were fifth in the NFL at 18.9 per game.


Harrison Smith will be all over the line of scrimmage, along with the big man, with long length Anthony Barr. The Vikings have a bunch of incredible athletes on the defensive side. The question will be – can they put it all back together, and will they all stay healthy?


Vikings 2016 Schedule
The Minnesota Vikings play a rather tough schedule in 2016. The Vikings start the opening month with a trip to Nashville to open up against the Titans, followed by a home game with Green Bay, and a road trip to Carolina. In October, home games with the New York Giants and Houston Texans and followed by road trips to Philadelphia and Chicago.


Once November arrives, the Detroit Lions, and Arizona Cardinals come to town, while the Lions go to Washington and Detroit. The final five games of the season for the Vikings are at home against Dallas, on the road at Jacksonville, with Indianapolis, at Green Bay, and then they finish at home against the Chicago Bears.


Betting on the Minnesota Vikings
If you are looking to bet on the Minnesota Vikings, we do not advise of it. The Vikings found of bunch of fortunate breaks last season. The Vikings are our pick to completely bust this season. But, for those of you that insist on betting on Minnesota, their odds to win Super Bowl 51 are listed at 18/1 over at MyBookie.


When you are looking at a future bet for win totals, the Minnesota Vikings are given odds of winning 9 games. There are much better bets out there in the world of sports betting than these two on the Minnesota Vikings.

 

[CNOTES]

2016 NFL Betting Preview: Seattle Seahawks


Pete Carroll and his Seattle Seahawks are back at the top of the NFC chain of command. The Seahawks will look to get back to the Super Bowl in February for the third time in four seasons.


Pete Carroll continues to do an incredible job as the head coach of the Seahawks, but they have another loaded roster in the great Northwest. Look for quarterback Russell Wilson to put together a solid season, especially after the marriage this off-season.


Seattle will have to contend with the Arizona Cardinals to win the NFC West.


Seattle Seahawks on Offense
The Seahawks have improved in each season Russell Wilson has been the quarterback. Wilson has been to the postseason four times in his career, and to the Super Bowl twice. The Seahawks will look to figure out a way to replace running back Marshawn Lynch, and right guard J.R. Sweezy.


Thomas Rawls will look to bounce back from his broken ankle, and will get the first look at running back. Alex Collins and C.J. Prosise will get the chance behind Rawls. The receiving core for the Seahawks will start with Jermaine Kearse and Doug Baldwin as the veterans, with Tyler Lockette as the deep threat. Jimmy Graham is still the starting tight end for Seattle.


Seattle on Defense
The Legion of Boom is back for the Seattle Seahawks. The team is looking to lead the NFL in points allowed for the fifth straight season. The Seahawks welcome back guys like Michael Bennett, Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas and Jeremy Lane, along with the name everyone knows defending the pass; Richard Sherman.


The Seahawks will look for big seasons from Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright as the inside and outside linebackers. No matter who is on the field, the Seattle defense is going to be a force to reckon with.


2016 Seahawks Schedule
The Seattle Seahawks start the 2016 season at home against the Miami Dolphins. That will be followed by a road game at the Los Angeles Rams, the first game in Los Angeles, and then they end the month with a home game against San Francisco.


In October, the Seahawks play three road games at the Jets, before coming home against the Atlanta Falcons, and then playing at Arizona and New Orleans. Once we get to November, the Seattle Seahawks are at home with Buffalo, at New England, with Philadelphia and then on the road at Tampa Bay.


Once December starts, the Seattle Seahawks host the Carolina Panthers, go on the road to Green Bay, before finishing the month with home games against Los Angeles and Arizona. The final game of the season for the Seahawks is at the San Francisco 49ers.


Betting on the Seattle Seahawks
Pete Carroll and the Seattle Seahawks are another good team to wager on this season. The Seahawks are looking for their third trip to the Super Bowl in four seasons. It will be awfully tough for the Seahawks, but they have the talent on paper to get it done.


If you are betting on the Seattle Seahawks to win the division, they are the favorite at Bookmaker. The Seahawks are listed at 10.5 wins, which is more than Arizona, who is listed at 9.5. To win the Super Bowl, the Seattle Seahawks are one of the favorites to win it all. You can grab Seattle at 10/1 odds over at Mybookie to win Super Bowl 51 in Phoenix.

 

[CNOTES]

2016 NFL Betting Preview: Dallas Cowboys


The Dallas Cowboys have a ton of potential to be a real monster out of the National Football League this season. The biggest question with the talent on the Dallas Cowboys roster is, can they put everything together, can they stay healthy, and can they stay out of trouble?


Tony Romo and Dez Bryant pose one of the top passing duo’s in all of the National Football League. The Cowboys defense has gotten better every season, and they are bound to be able to slow down the rest of the NFC East.


Dallas Offensively
The Dallas Cowboys will need Tony Romo on the field at all times this season. Romo broke his left collarbone twice last season. The 36 year old quarterback has not played a full season since the 2012 season. If Romo is not on the field, it’s Kellen Moore or Dak Prescott.


At running back, the Cowboys are going to turn to Ezekial Elliott, but his character has been questioned a bit following a domestic violence accusation in July. After the rookie it’s Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden. Dez Bryant is like Romo, and needs to be on the field for the Cowboys. When Bryant and Romo connect, they are deadline. Also in the offense for the Cowboys is 34 year old tight end Jason Witten.


Cowboys on Defense
Dallas needs to figure out a way to get to the quarterback. Last season, the Cowboys had just 31 sacks last season. Greg Hardy is gone from the Cowboys roster, and in came DeMarcus Lawrence, a second round pick. Randy Gregory continues to remain on the Cowboys roster, but will miss the first four games of the season.


The main cog on the Cowboys defense will be Sean Lee. Lee missed a game last season with concussion, but still earned a Pro Bowl Berth. The Cowboys also welcome back Rolando McClain, after 80 tackles in 11 games a season ago.


2016 Cowboys Schedule
The Dallas Cowboys will start the season on Sunday September 11th against divisional rival, New York Giants. Following that, the Cowboys are on the road at the Washington Redskins, and then wrap up September with a home game against the Chicago Bears.


In October, the Cowboys play their first and third games on the road at San Francisco and Green Bay, with home games on the front and back end against the Cincinnati Bengals and the Philadelphia Eagles. Once we arrive in November, the Cowboys start on the road at Cleveland and Pittsburgh, and end at home with Baltimore and Washington.


The final five games start with two on the road; at Minnesota and the New York Giants, before home games with the Buccaneers and Lions, before finishing the season at the Philadelphia Eagles.

Betting on the Dallas Cowboys
When you are betting on the Dallas Cowboys, the first thing to look at should be their chances to win the NFC East. The Cowboys have the best roster in the division, but if they can stay healthy, and put everything together is the major key.


The Dallas Cowboys are projected at 9 wins in their win total. The Cowboys have the most of any team in the division. If you are looking at the Dallas Cowboys, led by Tony Romo and Dez Bryant to win the Super Bowl in February, you can grab them at pretty good odds.


The betting odds at MyBookie to win Super Bowl 51 for the Dallas Cowboys is 16/1.

 

[CNOTES]

2016 NFL Betting Preview: New York Giants


The New York Giants are back for a 2016 season without their long time head coach Tom Coughlin. The Giants turn to Bob McAdoo, who will certainly have the team looking different. It’s a new time of New York Giants team, and it’s yet to be seen what kind of toughness this group will bring.


A couple things we are sure of with the New York Giants, they have Eli Manning, and they have Odell Beckham Jr. After that, there are certainly some question marks. In the end, they have a chance out of the NFC East.


New York Offense
The New York Giants are still run offensively by the right arm of Eli Manning. McAdoo has been running the offense for the past two seasons, so no big change there. The Giants have turned towards a quick throw, short pass type team. Odell Beckham Jr is one of the most dangerous threats in all of football.


The problem with the Giants is no proven #2 receiver. The Giants will look at guys like Rueben Randle or possibly rookie Sterling Shepard to take that role. The running game still is a work in progress, which certainly is bad news in such a tough league like the National Football League.


Giants Defense
The Giants will have to be better on the defensive side of the football this season. The pass rushing for New York was awful until Jason Pierre-Paul came back. The Giants have brought him back, and are hoping for 16 games this season. Robert Ayers is also gone from the Giants. Janoris Jenkins has been added to the secondary, along with Eli Apple, who played his college football at Ohio State.


Teaming with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, the defense certainly has the potential. Linebacker issues seem to plague this Giants team, and the Giants will have July and early August to figure that out.


Giants 2016 Schedule
The New York Giants start the 2016 season on the road, at their biggest rival, the Dallas Cowboys. That’s the line road game for the Giants during the first month of the season. The Saints and Redskins come to town in September.


Once October arrives, the Giants are on the road at Minnesota and Green Bay, before coming back home to host the Baltimore Ravens. They finish the month on October 23rd at the Los Angeles Rams. In November, the Giants start with three straight home games. The Eagles, Bengals and Bears will all three come to town, then the Giants are on the road at the Cleveland Browns.


Once December arrives, the first of their final five games is in Pittsburgh, against the Steelers. After that, the Giants finish with home games with the Cowboys and Lions, then road games on the road at the Eagles and Redskins.


Betting on the Giants
The New York Giants, who are under new leadership will be a tough team to beat all season long. The defense is improved and they have a quarterback that knows how to win. The Giants and Cowboys will be battling at the top of the NFC East, if they both remain relatively healthy.


If you are going to bet on the New York Giants, they are given interesting odds to win the Super Bowl at MyBookie. The New York Giants have pretty good MyBookie odds to bet on at 32/1. The win total put beside the New York Giants is interesting. While the Dallas Cowboys were given 9 wins, the New York Giants are next at 8.5.

 

[CNOTES]

AFC North Outlook
July 26, 2016


In recent years, the AFC North has been one of the most competitive divisions with 11 North squads in the playoffs the past five seasons as the division has snagged six wild card spots including taking both AFC spots in 2011 and 2014.


The Bengals, Ravens, and Steelers have mostly shuffled around in the top spots in recent years with the one constant being a basement finish for the Browns. The scenario is expected to be similar in 2016 with the Browns being the only team in a major transition, but there will be a lot to watch for in the North in the upcoming preseason.

BALTIMORE RAVENS
Over/Under Win Total: 8.5 (EVEN OVER, -130 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC North: 11/4
Odds to win the AFC: 14/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 33/1

STAFF CHANGES: Former Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier is now the defensive backs coach with Matt Weiss moving over to linebackers coach after Ted Monachino was hired as the new Indianapolis defensive coordinator. Joe Cullen is now the defensive line coach, but Frazier is a big hire for John Harbaugh’s staff as he has a lot of credibility in the league and could easily be in line for a defensive coordinator position in the near future.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Running Back
Six players are in camp for likely four spots as Justin Forsett’s lead role could be challenged. Lorenzo Taliaferro filled in admirably last season and he will get an opportunity. Veterans with experience including Trent Richardson and Terrance West will be looking to earn a backup spot while rookie Kenneth Dixon had a great career at Louisiana Tech and will be in the mix after being a fourth round draft pick.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Tight end features four pretty big names with Benjamin Watson, Dennis Pitta, Crockett Gillmore and Maxx Williams on board. All four could make the team with the Ravens often utilizing the tight end in the offense but that would mean trimming the roster in other spots. The left side of the offensive line has some question marks with Eugene Monroe retiring, while cornerback also is likely to feature a spirited battle for the defense.

SEASON OUTLOOK: Baltimore won the Super Bowl after the 2012 season and has finished third in the AFC North each of the three seasons since, although they did make the playoffs in 2014. Last season’s 5-11 campaign was the worst since Brian Billick’s final season with the team and while a lot of signs point upward for the Ravens, they sit in a division with two serious AFC contenders and moving up will be a challenge. Baltimore’s schedule is favorable early in the season as this is a team that needs to take advantage with a strong start. Several key games between fellow AFC wild card candidates are in the first two months and those games could make or break the season for the Ravens.

CINCINNATI BENGALS
Over/Under Win Total: 9.5 (-135 OVER, +105 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC North: 7/4
Odds to win the AFC: 8/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 18/1

STAFF CHANGES: There was some speculation that Marvin Lewis could be let go after another playoff failure last season. That didn’t happen but offensive coordinator Hue Jackson headed across the state to Cleveland. Former quarterbacks coach Ken Zampese will be the team’s third offensive coordinator in three years. Cincinnati also lost three defensive coaches to other teams and Kevin Coyle has returned to the team to fill the defensive backs position under defensive coordinator Paul Guenther.


KEY POSITON BATTLE: Defensive Tackle
It is a good problem to have but Cincinnati has great depth on the defensive line and there should be a good battle to earn spots on the roster. Geno Atkins and Domata Peko are the presumed starters, but DeShawn Williams and Pat Sims will make a push with Sims being a factor last season though his age and contract might make him expendable. Brandon Thompson might not be able to play right away coming off an ACL injury from late last season as he may be left inactive early in the season. Andrew Billings was also a fourth round pick that many graded much higher, but concerns over a possible knee issue pushed the Baylor product back to the mid-rounds.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: At cornerback, William Jackson III is a candidate to push for a starting spot as Cincinnati’s first round draft pick. Leon Hall left the team so there may be an opportunity, but he will be in competition with 2014 first round pick Darqueze Dennard and Dre Kirkpatrick and Adam Jones are still on the roster. With the departure of Marvin Jones and Mahomed Sanu, there are openings at wide receiver. Brandon LaFell was signed and Tyler Boyd, a second round draft pick out of Pittsburgh, will get an opportunity to earn playing time as well. Brandon Tate seems likely to maintain a spot in the offense with his experience in the offense and capability to contribute on special teams as well.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The Bengals never seem to be the AFC North favorites, but they have won three of the last seven division titles while making the playoffs six of the last seven seasons. Cincinnati has been 10-6 or better in each of the last four seasons and if Andy Dalton returns to form, this is a team that should be considered a serious threat in the AFC, especially with the North teams appearing to have favorable schedules as a whole this season. The early season schedule is difficult, playing on the road vs. playoff contenders in four of the first six weeks plus hosting the Super Bowl champions as the pressure will on early this year coming off last season’s miserable ending with another devastating playoff loss.


CLEVELAND BROWNS
Over/Under Win Total: 4.5 (-115 OVER, -115 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC North: 20/1
Odds to win the AFC: 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1

STAFF CHANGES: Former Raiders head coach and 2015 Cincinnati defensive coordinator Hue Jackson will be Cleveland’s ninth head coach since the team was reactivated in 1999. Only Romeo Crennel lasted as long as four seasons and none have produced a winning record, although Butch Davis did lead the Browns to the playoffs with a 9-7 season in 2002. Former Colts offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton will be an associate head coach and will lead the quarterbacks as Jackson intends to lead the offense himself. Ray Horton was the defensive coordinator for the Browns in 2013 and he served in that role for the Titans the past two seasons. He is back in Cleveland to lead the defense for Jackson’s staff this season while Chris Tabor is a holdover running special teams.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Quarterback
The Browns resisted drafting a quarterback in April and instead signed Robert Griffin III, who starred for the Redskins in his rookie season of 2012 only to fall out of favor with the organization. Josh McCown will be a veteran option if that plan fails with Austin Davis, who is also from the 2012 draft class, in the mix as well. Davis played in a handful of games for the Rams in 2014 and also filled in with mixed results last season before the Browns turned to Johnny Manziel.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Linebacker appears to be an area with little stability for the Cleveland defense. Rookies Joe Schobert and Scooby Wright could compete for time with free agent Demario Davis as well as the other returning players on the roster. Eyes will also be on first round draft pick Corey Coleman and the wide receiver position with Andrew Hawkins and Terrelle Pryor also returning while the team still will be waiting on any chance that Jose Gordon could return.


SEASON OUTLOOK: After a modestly successful 7-9 season in 2014, the Browns fell back to 3-13 last year and in seven of the last eight years Cleveland has failed to top five wins. They are firmly expected to struggle in the AFC North this season and likely finish back among the worst teams in the league. Cleveland does have some promising matchups in the first two months of the season as it wouldn’t be impossible for the Browns to have a competitive start if Hue Jackson can find the right mix on offense as the defense should be capable. The late-season schedule looks difficult as a slow start could spell a very challenging season as the best opportunities for wins should be early in the season.


PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Over/Under Win Total: 10.5 (-125 OVER, -105 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC North: 13/10
Odds to win the AFC: 11/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 12/1


STAFF CHANGES: Keith Butler took over for Dick LeBeau last season as the defensive coordinator for the Steelers and the results were promising with a high sack and high turnover unit that was very good against the run. The staff under Mike Tomlin remains mostly intact from last season with Todd Haley leading the offense. Tomlin is actually the fifth longest tenured head coach in the league with the same team and the stability for the organization makes the team one of the AFC favorites again this season.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Safety
The secondary went through some ups-and-downs last season for the Steelers and it will be a position of interest in preseason action. Will Allen started 13 games last season for the Steelers, but he was not re-signed. Robert Golden started three games early in the year at strong safety, but played less late in the season although he was re-signed to a three-year deal. Shamarko Thomas has been mostly a bust for the Steelers and may be in his last opportunity to earn meaningful time on the field. Sean Davis was a second round pick in the draft and the opportunity to take the spot is there.


OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Kicker has been an interesting position for the Steelers in recent years as Josh Scobee was dismissed midseason last year. Chris Boswell did the job the rest of the season including hitting some big kicks in the playoffs, but long-time Steelers kicker Shaun Suisham is back after missing last season due to an ACL injury. It seems likely Boswell keeps the job but Suisham will get an opportunity. Alejandro Villanueva and Ryan Harris could be in a heated battle at left tackle as the position was a weak spot for the team last season. Landry Jones and Bruce Gradkowski will also provide the Steelers with a battle for the back-up spot behind Ben Roethlisberger, who missed some time last season and seems to constantly make his way to the injury report.

SEASON OUTLOOK: As one of the most popular teams in the league and one of the most stable organizations, the Steelers have almost always been considered one of the AFC favorites in recent years and that won’t change this season. Pittsburgh was very close to making the AFC Championship last season and the defense showed promising signs last season to go along with a very productive offense that should battle fewer injuries than last season. Optimism for Pittsburgh is also built on a schedule draw that many rate among the most favorable slates in the league.

 

[CNOTES]

Win Total Outlook - NFC
July 20, 2016




The 2016 NFL regular season begins on Thursday Sept. 8 and our staff has taken a look at Win Total tendencies for all 16 teams in the NFC for the past five seasons.


Be sure to check out all the results and take a look at VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson’s in-depth Schedule Analysis for each division as well.

NFC East - Schedule Analysis


2016 Non-Divisional Opponents (NFC Central, AFC North)


Dallas (2016 Win Total per Las Vegas Westgate - 9, Over -120)


The Cowboys win total is usually inflated based on its popularity and the oddsmakers have fared well with the team going ‘under’ in four of the last five seasons. Since Tony Romo became a full-time starter in 2006, the team has never lost more than eight games in a season when he’s healthy but they’ve only won nine or more three times. Going 4-12 last season certainly helps the 2016 slate with last=place games set against the Buccaneers and 49ers. They also get three primetime games at home and the Thanksgiving Day game, which is both surprising and beneficial.


N.Y. Giants (8, Over -120)


The Giants are another club that has burned ‘over’ bettors recently. The team has posted three straight losing seasons, yet they’re expected to go at least .500 this fall. Ben McAdoo takes over for Tom Coughlin as coach and he’s been handed a generous schedule. New York does play three sets of back-to-back road games but they don’t travel further than the Central Time zone. Instead of going to Los Angeles, the Giants will meet the Rams in London.


Washington (7, Over -140)


Even though the Redskins won the NFC East last season, most believe that effort was a fluke. Jay Gruden has a chance as coach to prove the naysayers wrong but history has shown us that Washington hasn’t had back-to-back winning seasons since 1997. Washington only faced two playoff teams (0-2) last season and now meet six in 2016 which includes the first-place winners Carolina and Arizona. Three of the first four games for the ‘Skins are at home but they’ll be underdogs (Steelers, Cowboys) in two of those games. The franchise will also make their first trip to London this season when they meet the Bengals in a scheduled road game in Week 8.


Philadelphia (7, Under -120)


The Eagles went 7-9 last season and it appears the days of winning anywhere from eight to 11 wins under former coach Andy Reid are long gone. Rookie head coach and former Eagles QB Doug Pederson takes over in Philadelphia and the expectations from the oddsmakers are much lower. The Eagles have an early bye (Week 3) and follow that break with four of five on the road. Playing seven games versus playoff teams from last year won’t be easy, especially with a less talented roster and quarterback. Before you back up the bus and bet ‘under’ this season, note that the Eagles haven’t had back-to-back losing seasons since 1999 when Reid took over for Ray Rhodes.


NFC EAST WIN TOTAL RESULTS (2011-2015)


Team 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Dallas Cowboys 8-8 8-8 8-8 12-4 4-12
Win Total 9 8.5 8.5 8 9.5
Result

New York Giants 9-7 9-7 7-9 6-10 6-10
Win Total 9.5 9 9 8 8
Result

Philadelphia Eagles 8-8 4-12 10-6 10-6 7-9
Win Total 10.5 10 7.5 9 10
Result

Washington Redskins 5-11 10-6 3-13 4-12 9-7
Win Total 6 6.5 8 7.5 6
Result



NFC North - Schedule Analysis


2016 Non-Divisional Opponents (NFC East, AFC South)


Green Bay (10 ½, Over -165)


The Packers have posted double-digit wins in six of the eight seasons since Aaron Rodgers became the starting quarterback yet they’ve seen the ‘under’ go 3-2 in their win total wagers the last five years. Winning 11 games isn’t easy in the NFL but the oddsmakers are expecting Green Bay to make a serious run at it. Playing games versus two of the weakest divisions (NFC East, AFC South) in football will help that cause, plus the Packers host the Colts, Texans and Seahawks. Outside of a Week 2 road trip to Minnesota’s new venue, Green Bay will likely be favored in every other game this season and that’s why its win total is shaded heavily (-165) to the high side.


Minnesota (9 ½, Over -130)


Mike Zimmer and the Vikings are 2-0 to the ‘over’ in win total wagers but the bar has been raised two games in 2016. Defensively, Minnesota was ranked fifth in points and 13th in yards but some pundits might question whether or not the new venue will give opponents a better chance indoors. Playing three primetime games at home helps but first-place games versus the Panthers and Cardinals are daunting. Fortunately, road trips to Tennessee and Jacksonville look winnable.

Chicago (7 ½, Under -135)


The Bears have been one of the best fades in win total wagers of the last five seasons, going 4-1 to the ‘under.’ However, the oddsmakers are expecting Chicago to improve off its 6-10 record last season and the schedule doesn’t look imposing on paper. The Bears finish with four of their last six games at Soldier Field and the longest road trip of the season takes them to Tampa Bay, which is filled with plenty of Chicago transplants. John Fox has never won a Super Bowl as head coach but he’s also never had back-to-back losing seasons in his career.

Detroit (7, Over -125)
After having win total ranging from 8 to 9 wins the last five years, the oddsmakers have lowered the bar for Jim Caldwell and company this season. Considering the Lions closed the season with a 6-2 record in 2015 and one of the losses was the Hail Mary setback to Green Bay, some bettors might question this year’s number. Playing back-to-back road games are very difficult to overcome in the NFL and Detroit will face this dilemma three times this season.




NFC NORTH WIN TOTAL RESULTS (2011-2015)


Team 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Chicago Bears 8-8 10-6 8-8 5-11 6-10
Win Total 8.5 9.5 8.5 8.5 6.5
Result

Detroit Lions 10-6 4-12 7-9 11-5 7-9
Win Total 8 9 8 8.5 8.5
Result

Green Bay Packers 15-1 11-5 8-7-1 12-4 10-6
Win Total 11.5 12 10.5 10.5 11
Result

Minnesota Vikings 3-13 10-6 5-10-1 7-9 11-5
Win Total 7 6 7 6 8
Result


NFC South - Schedule Analysis


2016 Non-Divisional Opponents (NFC West, AFC West)

Carolina (10 ½, Over -120)
After posting a 15-1 record and losing in the Super Bowl to Denver last February, the oddsmakers are buying Carolina this season. Their win total has jumped from 8 ½ to 10 ½ and bettors should note that the Panthers have never posted back-to-back winning seasons since the franchise began in 1995. Carolina should be favored in all eight of its home games barring key injuries but three trips to the West Coast plus a visit to Denver could have ‘over’ bettors backing off Cam Newtown and company this season. Final note – the last three teams (Steelers, Patriots, Packers) to win 15-plus games in a regular season all finished with 11 the next season.

Atlanta (7, Over -135)
The Falcons have a win total of 7 but the money is shaded to the high side and a few offshore books have pushed the number up to 7 ½. After starting last season 5-0 and 6-1, rookie head coach Dan Quinn and the Falcons were humbled by losing by seven of their final nine games behind an offense that was hard to watch in the second-half of the season. Another 8-8 record seems probable but the wins might come later in the season, especially with the Falcons playing four of their first six on the road.


Tampa Bay (7, Over -125)
The Buccaneers pushed their win total (6-10) last season and has only gone ‘over’ once in the last five years, which occurred in Week 17 of the 2012 season. Despite winning six games overall and losing five of the final six, oddsmakers raised the win total on the Bucs this season and bettors could be scratching their heads. None of the wins came against playoff teams in 2015 and three of the four losses versus playoff teams came by double digits. Tampa Bay hasn’t won eight-plus games since 2010 and new head coach Dirk Koetter will be tasked to do so this season.

New Orleans (7, Under -120)
The oddsmakers have finally jumped off the Sean Payton bandwagon in “The Big Easy” and listed the Saints with a win total of 7 for the 2016 season. Including the “Bounty Gate” season when he wasn’t on the sidelines, New Orleans has never won less than seven games which makes the ‘over’ appear to be a lean. If the Saints look to turn it around, they’ll need to improve on the league’s worst defense (29.8 PPG) and a 7-9 record at the Superdome the last two seasons.



NFC SOUTH WIN TOTAL RESULTS (2011-2015)


Team 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Atlanta Falcons 10-6 13-3 4-12 6-10 8-8
Win Total 10 9 10 8.5 8.5
Result

Carolina Panthers 6-10 7-9 12-4 7-8-1 15-1
Win Total 4.5 7.5 7.5 8 8.5
Result

New Orleans Saints 13-3 7-9 11-5 7-9 7-9
Win Total 10 9.5 9 10 8.5
Result

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-12 7-9 4-12 2-14 6-10
Win Total 8 6 7.5 7 6
Result



NFC West - Schedule Analysis


2016 Non-Divisional Opponents (NFC South, AFC East)


Seattle (10 ½, Over -135)
The ‘Hawks had their win total ‘over’ run snapped last year despite winning 10 games. Surprisingly, three of the six losses came at CenturyLink Field. Plus, three of the setbacks came by four points or less and the largest margin was only by 10 points. The first four games out of the chute in 2016 look very winnable but road trips to New Orleans, New England and Green Bay aren’t gifts.


Arizona (10, Over -120)
The Cardinals have seen the ‘over’ go 4-1 the last five seasons and the last three years have been easy winners, all under head coach Bruce Arians. If you include Arians job as understudy with the Colts, he’s gone 34-14 in the NFL regular season. Going ‘over’ 7, 7 ½ and 8 wins is much easier than ‘over’ 10 victories but the schedule has the Cardinals playing six of their first nine games in the desert. If Arizona doesn’t start 6-3 or 7-2, the ‘under’ could be a solid lean knowing five of the final seven are on the road.

L.A. Rams (7 ½, Under -130)
New home, same coach in Jeff Fisher and that hasn’t been a good thing for the Rams. The club has never won more than seven games in his first four seasons at the helm. Playing in Los Angeles could certainly play a toll traveling to the Jets, Patriots, Saints and Buccaneers. Giving up a home game to play the N.Y. Giants in London could spell trouble and a matchup versus the defending NFC champion Carolina Panthers at home won’t be easy either. The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in the last five seasons for the Rams and that’s with win totals listed between 6 and 7 ½ victories.

San Francisco (6, Under -160)
The 49ers surprised oddsmakers the first three years under head coach Jim Harbaugh and cashed ‘over’ wagers but came back to reality in his final season and went backwards again last year under Jim Tomsula (5-11). The 49ers expected to be the worst team in the NFC but the Chip Kelly era could open some eyes. Even though he was let go a week early last season with Philadelphia, he still produced a 26-11 record with the Eagles and he did go 46-7 while coaching on the West Coast with Oregon.


NFC WEST WIN TOTAL RESULTS (2011-2015)


Team 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Arizona Cardinals 8-8 5-11 10-6 11-5 13-3
Win Total 7 7 5.5 7.5 8.5
Result

Los Angeles Rams 2-14 7-8-1 7-9 6-10 7-9
Win Total 7.5 6 7.5 7 7.5
Result

San Francisco 49ers 13-3 11-4-1 12-4 8-8 5-11
Win Total 7.5 10 11.5 10.5 6.5
Result

Seattle Seahawks 7-9 11-5 13-3 12-4 10-6
Win Total 6 7.5 10.5 11 11
Result

 

[CNOTES]

Win Total Outlook - AFC
July 20, 2016




The 2016 NFL regular season begins on Thursday Sept. 8 and our staff has taken a look at Win Total tendencies for all 16 teams in the AFC for the past five seasons.


Be sure to check out all the results and take a look at VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson’s in-depth Schedule Analysis for each division as well.

AFC East - Schedule Analysis


2016 Non-Divisional Opponents (AFC North, NFC West)

New England (2016 Win Total per Las Vegas Westgate – 10 ½, Over -150)
Since Bill Belichick arrived in in 2000, the Patriots have won 11 games or more in 12 of the 16 seasons he's been head coach. Most would’ve expected that run of dominance to continue this fall but not having quarterback Tom Brady for the first four games certainly puts things up in the air. This year’s first-place opponents doesn’t appear as intimidating with the Texans and Broncos both boasting new faces at quarterback. However, the AFC North returns two playoff teams in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati plus Baltimore should rebound with QB Joe Flacco being healthy.


Buffalo (8, Over -110)
The Bills have seen the ‘under’ cash in their win total three of the last four seasons. It appears the oddsmakers have given up on the Rex Ryan talk, lowering the win total from 8 ½ to 8 this season. He talks a good game but he’s only won more than eight games twice in seven seasons as a head coach in the NFL. Buffalo closes the season with three of its final four games played at Ralph Wilson Stadium but three trips to the West Coast (Rams, Seahawks, Raiders) is tough for any club.

N.Y. Jets (8, Under -150)
Head coach Todd Bowles and the Jets surprised the oddsmakers last year with a 10-6 record, easily surpassing their win total of 7 ½ games. The quarterback position is still up in the air and having to play consecutive road games three times throughout the season is difficult to prepare for. New York closes the season with four divisional games in its last six, which includes a home-and-home against New England.

Miami (7, Over -110)
Once a proud franchise, the Dolphins have become an afterthought with only one posting winning season the last 10 years. They did go 8-8 in 2013 and 2014, which is an ‘over’ winner with this year’s number. Adam Gase becomes the new head coach and his reputation is on the offensive side of the ball, where the Dolphins ranked 26th in total yards last season. Miami opens the season with three of the first four on the road but they do miss Brady in Week 2.


AFC EAST WIN TOTAL RESULTS (2011-2015)


Team 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Buffalo Bills 6-10 6-10 6-10 9-7 8-8
Win Total 5.5 8 6.5 6.5 8.5
Result

Miami Dolphins 6-10 7-9 8-8 8-8 6-10
Win Total 7.5 7 8 8 9
Result

New England Patriots 13-3 12-4 12-4 12-4 12-4
Win Total 11.5 12 11 10.5 10.5
Result

New York Jets 8-8 6-10 8-8 4-12 10-6
Win Total 10 8.5 6.5 7 7.5
Result



AFC North - Schedule Analysis


2016 Non-Divisional Opponents (AFC East, NFC East)

Pittsburgh (10 ½, Over -110)
The Steelers have cashed ‘over’ tickets the last two seasons but there are higher expectations in Western Pennsylvania in 2016. Winning 11 games has only happened once in the last four years in Pittsburgh but knowing they haven’t had a losing season since 2003 provides confidence. There is a stretch in November where the Steelers play three games in 11 days and two are on the road. Closing with home games versus the Ravens and Browns could be the deciding outcomes for this wager.


Cincinnati (9 ½, Over -140)
The Bengals have exceed the expectations of the oddsmakers the last five seasons by cashing ‘over’ winners. This year Cincinnati’s number has jumped from 8 ½ to 9 ½ and the worst record the club has had with Andy Dalton was 9-7, which came in his rookie season (2011). The Bengals have gone 19-4-1 at home in the regular season over the last four years but they lose a game this season with a scheduled game set in London versus the Redskins.

Baltimore (8 ½, Under -130)
The Ravens finally threw up a clunker (5-11) last season, the first losing record under the John Harbaugh tenure. QB Joe Flacco was also lost late in the season to a knee injury and is expected to be ready this fall. Baltimore plays 15 of 16 games in the Eastern Time Zone with the outlier being a trip to Dallas in November. The Ravens do play back-to-back road games three times this season, which includes tough trips to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in Week 16 and 17 respectively.

Cleveland (4 ½, Over -130)
Cleveland has the lowest win total in the NFL and they’ve been a great ‘under’ wager the last five years. Hue Jackson, who is familiar with this division, becomes the fourth coach in the last five years for the Browns and the early slate doesn’t set up well. Cleveland plays three of its first four on the road before hosting Tom Brady and the Patriots in his first game back from suspension. Good Luck!

AFC NORTH WIN TOTAL RESULTS (2011-2015)


Team 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Baltimore Ravens 12-4 10-6 8-8 10-6 5-11
Win Total 10.5 10 8.5 8.5 9
Result

Cincinnati Bengals 9-7 10-6 11-5 10-5-1 12-4
Win Total 5.5 8 8.5 9 8.5
Result

Cleveland Browns 4-12 5-11 4-12 7-9 3-13
Win Total 6.5 5.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
Result

Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4 8-8 8-8 11-5 10-6
Win Total 10.5 10 9 8.5 8.5
Result



AFC South - Schedule Analysis


2016 Non-Divisional Opponents (AFC West, NFC Central)

Indianapolis (9, Over -120) The Colts have seen their win total go from 5 ½ in 2012 up to 10 ½ wins last season. The ‘over’ went 3-0 in the first three seasons with QB Andrew Luck at the helm but came back to earth with an 8-8 last fall in an injury riddled season. Knowing Indianapolis has gone 20-4 in the division the last four years, a 5-1 or 6-0 record seems doable again in 2016. Getting five more wins could be tough knowing the Colts visit the Broncos, Packers, Vikings and Raiders.


Houston (8 ½, Under -120) The Texans have posted a pair of 9-7 records in their first two years under head coach Bill O’Brien and that mark is expected again this season. Achieving a 9-7 record won’t come easy in the Lone Star State especially with first-place games versus the Patriots (No Brady) and Bengals on tap. Houston has gone 10-6 at home under O’Brien and he might need his team to go 8-0 this season knowing four road games this season are against playoff teams. Houston also meets a surging Oakland team in Mexico City in Week 11 as part of the league’s international series.

Jacksonville (7 ½, Over -120) The Jaguars have seen their win total go ‘under’ each of the last five seasons yet this year’s number has ballooned to 7 ½ victories. It’s certainly hard to expect the ‘over’ to come in considering Jacksonville has won eight games once in the last eight years and they’re coming off a 5-11 season with four of the wins coming by six points or less. Jacksonville has gone 4-20 the last four seasons on the road and this year’s non-divisional home slate is arguably the toughest in the NFL with the Packers, Ravens, Raiders, Broncos and Vikings visiting the Sunshine State. The Jaguars also lose a home game in London again as they play the Colts in Week 4 overseas.


Tennessee (5 ½, Over -160) It’s rare to see a team double their win total from the previous season but the oddsmakers are buying the Titans. Tennessee went 3-13 last season and six of the losses came by six points or less and four by three or less. Marcus Mariota missed four games but he went 3-9 in 12 starts during his rookie season and should only get better with a running game, which was beefed up. Head coach Mike Mularkey took over the coaching duties from Ken Whisenhunt last season and while six wins doesn’t seem like much, bettors should be aware that he’s gone 5-11 (2005 Bills) and 2-14 (2012 Jaguars) in his last two head coaching stints.



AFC SOUTH WIN TOTAL RESULTS (2011-2015)


Team 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Houston Texans 10-6 12-4 2-14 9-7 9-7
Win Total 9 10 10.5 7.5 8.5
Result

Indianapolis Colts 2-14 11-5 11-5 11-5 8-8
Win Total 9.5 5.5 8.5 9.5 10.5
Result

Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11 2-14 4-12 3-13 5-11
Win Total 6.5 5.5 5 5 5.5
Result

Tennessee Titans 9-7 6-10 7-9 2-14 3-13
Win Total 6.5 7 6.5 7 5.5
Result



AFC West - Schedule Analysis


2016 Non-Divisional Opponents (AFC South, NFC South)


Kansas City (9 ½, Over -130)
The Chiefs started 2015 with a 1-5 record before winning their final10 games, which helped the team go ‘over’ their win total (8 ½) for the third straight season. This year’s number is boosted up a bit and another slow start would hamper their ‘over’ run. Matching up with the South divisions doesn’t hurt but they face the top teams (Panthers, Falcons, Colts, Texans) from those groups on the road. Knowing Andy Reid has posted winning marks in 12 of his 17 head coaching seasons makes you believe you have a chance at this number to go high.

Denver (9 ½, Under -150)
Despite being one of the best win total ‘over’ teams in the NFL the last five seasons, oddsmakers are selling Denver in 2016. The Broncos won 12 games behind the league’s best defense but a shaky quarterback situation won’t help an offense that was lacking a punch to begin with. A lot of Denver’s success came versus the AFC West. They went 21-3 versus divisional opponents the last four regular seasons with signal callers Peyton Manning and Brock Oswelier, who are both long gone.


Oakland (8 ½, Over -110)
After winning a combined 11 games from 2012 through 2014, the Raiders finished last season with a 7-9 record and cashed ‘over’ tickets (5 ½). Outside of defeating the Broncos (15-12) on the road, the Raiders didn’t have an impressive win on their resume. There’s no doubt that Oakland has a solid young nucleus and this year’s win total appears to be based on their matchups vs. the AFC & NFC South clubs. The Raiders only play two playoff teams on the road (Chiefs, Broncos) and have a mid-season stretch of hosting three games at home and another in Mexico City, which has a strong Oakland fan base.


San Diego (7, Over -140)
The Chargers posted their worst record (4-12) in the last 12 years in 2015. During that same span, San Diego has never had less than seven wins which could have bettors leaning ‘over’ this season. Head coach Mike McCoy went 9-7 in each of his first two seasons and the return of offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt should help an offense that declined since he left after 2013. The bye week comes late for the Chargers and four of the final five are against non-playoff teams from last season, three being played at home.


AFC WEST WIN TOTAL RESULTS (2011-2015)


Team 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Denver Broncos 8-8 13-3 13-3 12-4 12-4
Win Total 6 8.5 11.5 11.5 10
Result

Kansas City Chiefs 7-9 2-14 11-5 9-7 11-5
Win Total 7.5 8 7.5 8 8.5
Result

Oakland Raiders 8-8 4-12 4-12 3-13 7-9
Win Total 6.5 7 5.5 5 5.5
Result

San Diego Chargers 8-8 7-9 9-7 9-7 4-12
Win Total 11 9 7.5 8 8
Result

 

[CNOTES]

Season Win Total Predictions


July 24, 2016


By Mark Franco


Lions - Under 7 (-105 at Stations)


Losing your best player to early retirement in WR Calvin Johnson does not bode well for a team that had its problems on offense the last couple of years. The Lions offense ranked 20th last season and their running game was almost not existence ranked dead last in the league. Third-down conversion percentage for the Lions offense was just 37% in the NFL a year ago.


The Lions have a tough road schedule with games at the Colts, Packers, Texans, Vikings, Saints, Giants and Cowboys. I don’t see them getting to 7 wins on the season.

Texans - Over 8 ½ (-105 at South Point)


The new-look Houston Texans have added pieces on offense starting with QB Brock Osweiler. The Texans drafted Wide receiver Will Fuller, Center Nick Martin, Wide receiver Braxton Miller and Running back Tyler Ervin with their first four picks and I expect all of them to have an impact on the offense.


The Texans road schedule is manageable with their only tough games being at New England with no Tom Brady in week 3, at the Vikings, at the Broncos and at the Packers.

Raiders - Over 8 ½ (-115 at South Point)


The Silver and Black and back after finally not having a losing season last year at 8-8. I see no reason why they can’t at least get one more win this year. Head Coach Jack Del Rio has made a big impact on this team and with the weapons they have on offense I’m looking for the Raider to even have a shot at the playoffs.


They have very winnable out of division road games at the Titans, Ravens, Jaguars, and Bucs. Nine wins seems attainable.

 

[CNOTES]

AFC South Outlook
August 1, 2016


West It is a bit hard to believe that the Colts from the AFC South opened the 2015 season as the AFC favorites. This season, the expectations are grounded for the division as a whole with relatively difficult schedules outside of the division and 9-7 being enough to take the title in 2015. Here is a look at some of the staff changes and key position battles for the AFC South for 2016.


HOUSTON TEXANS
Over/Under Win Total: 8.5 (-130 OVER, EVEN UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC South: 2/1
Odds to win the AFC: 18/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 33/1

STAFF CHANGES: Despite winning the AFC South last season, the Texans made a few coaching moves, firing Bob Ligashesky as special teams coordinator, a holdover from Gary Kubiak’s staff. Wide receivers coach Stan Hixton followed Bill O’Brien from Penn State, but was released after last season. Mike Vrabel was allegedly offered the defensive coordinator position in San Francisco, but he opted to stay put as linebackers coach while Sean Ryan and Anthony Weaver are new position coach hires. Larry Izzo is the new special teams coordinator, having spent the last five seasons with the Giants.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Running Back
Arian Foster is no longer with the Texans as the incredibly productive but often-injured running back has moved on and signed with Miami. Ironically, Houston is replacing Foster with Lamar Miller, who was the main running back for the Dolphins last season. Alfred Blue had several strong fill-in performances last season, but he may wind up being a career back-up. Seeking more of a change-of-pace back, the Texans will hope to see improvement from Jonathan Grimes who had 282 yards last season but isn’t a lock to make the roster. A more dynamic option might be rookie Tyler Ervin, who was a fourth round pick out of San Jose State, while Akeem Hunt will also see some preseason snaps after bouncing between three teams as an undrafted rookie out of Purdue last season.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: There should be a true competition in the kicking game for the Texans as while Nick Novak was adequate last season, rookie Ka’imi Fairbairn was a prolific college kicker for UCLA and figures to have greater range. If J.J. Watt misses time, defensive end will be a position with questions as Jared Crick signed with Denver and there is an open starting spot opposite Watt. Christian Covington may be moved from the interior while Jeoffrey Pagan remains on the roster. Devon Still and Brandon Dunn are also new additions that will compete for a rotation spot.


SEASON OUTLOOK: Winning the AFC South was a great accomplishment for the Texans last season in Bill O’Brien’s second season, but a 30-0 home loss in the playoffs was a sour finish to the season. The success of Houston will hinge on new quarterback Brock Osweiler, the latest attempt to solidify the position that the franchise has struggled to find stability at in its entire existence. Houston was just 9-7 last season and in the AFC South, that might again be enough for a division title with a grouping that figures to be a bit more balanced with improvement from Tennessee and Jacksonville very possible. The draws of the NFC North and AFC West will make for a tough overall schedule for Houston and as has been the case in recent years the matchups with the Colts may decide the division.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Over/Under Win Total: 9.5 (EVEN OVER, -130 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC South: 7/5
Odds to win the AFC: 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 28/1

STAFF CHANGES: There was some speculation that Chuck Pagano could be fired after the Colts opened the season as the AFC favorites last year and finished just 8-8. Big changes were made on defense as Greg Manusky was fired as defensive coordinator along with several position coaches. Recall that in the middle of the season offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton was fired, as under Pagano the 2016 season will start with almost a completely new set of assistants. Former Ravens assistant Ted Monachino is the new defensive coordinator and will run Pagano’s scheme. Higher profile assistants are joining the team on offense with former Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin coaching the offensive line and Brian Schottenheimer coaching the quarterbacks while former Browns head coach Rob Chudzinski the new offensive coordinator.


KEY POSITON BATTLE: Right Guard
Hugh Thornton started at right guard last season and injuries have plagued him heading into his fourth season with the team. Thornton will have an opportunity to retain the starting spot and likely get a hefty contract after the season or he could fall out of favor. Denzelle Good played at tackle last season, but was impressive in his rookie season and the team sees him as a potential replacement at guard, though an injury has kept him out of action in the early summer. Jonotthan Harrison has been the team’s center in recent years, but Ryan Kelly is taking that spot leaving Harrison as a potential replacement at guard. Joe Haeg was a fifth round pick as a tackle but has mostly been working as a guard since joining the Colts.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Jerrell Freeman signed with the Bears to leave an opening at inside linebacker. Nate Irving was next in line on the roster last season, starting two games while starting significantly for the Broncos in 2014. Sio Moore was acquired just before the start of last season, but he did not earn consistent playing time and figures to be in a clear competition for the spot. Antonio Morrison was picked up in the fourth round of the draft, but an injury has kept him from realistically joining the competition at this point. The defensive line and receiver depth will also have some sorting out to do for the Colts, who will have five preseason games as they are in the early August Hall of Fame game to open the season.


SEASON OUTLOOK: While the Colts were just 8-8 last season, the expectations will be in line with the previous three 11-5 seasons under Andrew Luck and Pagano. Owner Jim Irsay is known for the potential for bold decisions and if the season does not start out strong, changes could be made. Indianapolis has a favorable early slate with many of the toughest games in the second half as that scenario doesn’t seem likely, but Luck has to prove he is healthy and ready to take a leap after the step backwards last season while being injured. The South remains one of the weaker divisions in the league as it won’t likely take a great season to win the division, but after an AFC Championship appearance two seasons ago the bar is set high for a team that had a lot of problems last season and turned over most of the staff.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Over/Under Win Total: 7.5 (-125 OVER, -105 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC South: 3/1
Odds to win the AFC: 22/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 40/1

STAFF CHANGES: Gus Bradley is just 12-36 in three seasons leading the Jaguars, but ownership has been patient although this figures to be a critical season for the team to show improvement even with Bradley getting an extension through 2017. Jacksonville did make a major change on defense with Todd Wash replacing Bob Babich as the defensive coordinator. Wash has been with the team all three seasons under Bradley as the defensive line coach as it won’t likely be a major transition. There were some other minor moves for in assistant roles for position coaches, but much of the staff from last season is in place.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Left Tackle
The key position on the offensive line will be under the microscope for the Jaguars in August. Luke Joeckel was the #2 pick in the 2013 draft, but he missed most of that season with an ankle injury. His 2014 season was forgettable and while he made 14 starts at left tackle last season, his starting spot may be in jeopardy. Kelvin Beachum is the best candidate to unseat as a free agent signing from the Steelers, working his way from being a seventh round pick out of SMU into 39 starts the past three years. Veteran Mackenzy Bernadeau was also picked up by the Jaguars with eight years of experience and versatility at the line positions.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: T.J. Yeldon had a solid rookie season and figures to be coveted fantasy running back this summer, but veteran Chris Ivory might still wind up as the starter based on his experience and red zone success. Both will play significantly but Yeldon may not get the touches many will expect in his second season. The Jacksonville offense also features a pair of college wide receiver stars in play for the slot position with Marqise Lee and Rashad Greene in a head-to-head battle. Lee has been hurt for portions of his first two seasons and while Greene made a few dynamic plays in his rookie season he ultimately had just 19 receptions plus a punt return touchdown. The defensive line rotation and the strong safety positions also have some question marks at this point for the Jaguars.

SEASON OUTLOOK: On paper, Jacksonville is starting to look like a team that can seriously compete in the AFC South despite a long stretch of losing for the franchise. Blake Bortles will be in his third season as the starting quarterback and there is a lot of young talent on both sides of the ball. Expectations are definitely elevated and while Jacksonville likely doesn’t need a playoff run for 2016 to be considered a success, getting close to .500 is reasonable goal and the opportunity should be there for this squad.


TENNESSEE TITANS
Over/Under Win Total: 5.5 (-155 OVER, +125 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC South: 10/1
Odds to win the AFC: 40/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 66/1

STAFF CHANGES: Ken Whisenhunt was fired mid-season and his replacement Mike Mularkey had the interim tag removed as he will lead the Titans in 2016, his third stint as a head coach as he coached the Bills for two seasons in 2004 and 2005 as well as the Jaguars in 2012. His career record is just 18-39 and he promoted long-time Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau to that position moving forward as well as retaining his distinction as assistant head coach. Terry Robiskie was twice an interim head coach before settling in as a wide receivers coach the last decade, mainly with the Falcons. Robiskie will be the offensive coordinator for the Titans this season while there is a change at special teams as well with Bobby April taking over having held that role for the Rams, Bills, Eagles, Raiders, and Jets the last 15 years.


KEY POSITON BATTLE: Running Back
DeMarco Murray is presumably the starter after the Titans struck a deal to acquire the 2014 season’s leading rusher. Alabama star Derrick Henry was also the team’s second round pick and the Heisman Trophy winner will certainly be watched closely. Bishop Sankey was the team’s second round pick in 2014 and while he has underwhelmed with just 762 yards in two seasons, he still has some potential and is likely more comfortable in the passing game. David Cobb was also a prolific college rusher for Minnesota and while he was injured much of his rookie season, he did have some positive production late in the season when given an opportunity. Taking pressure of Marcus Mariota will be critical for Tennessee as the team will need to get strong running back play to have success.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: The Titans have several veterans with experience at wide receiver, but the pecking order isn’t particularly clear. Harry Douglas, Kendall Wright, and Justin Hunter figure to be the top three receivers but Dorial Green-Beckham had a productive rookie season and Rishard Matthews had 43 catches for the Dolphins last season. It is a deep group but perhaps lacking a standout leader. Brian Orakpo leads the linebacker corps but rookie Kevin Dodd joins Davis Bass and Derrick Morgan on the depth chart in what will be a key spot for the defense.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The Titans are projected to finish at the bottom of the AFC after finishing just 3-13 last season, but the offense had a handful of big games last season and improvement on the defense seems likely. The AFC South would be one the most likely divisions to produce an unexpected winner and the Titans lost six games by a touchdown or less last season despite all the changes and injuries. Tennessee is probably a year or two away from a serious push for the division, but the Titans are also a candidate to surprise especially with a pretty favorable first half schedule.

 

[CNOTES]

NFC South Outlook
July 30, 2016




An NFC South team has been the NFC’s top seed in four of the last seven seasons and the possibility for a strong season from this group is there in 2016. Here is a look at preseason storylines and personnel changes for the NFC South, led by the 2015 NFC Champion Carolina Panthers.


ATLANTA FALCONS
Over/Under Win Total: 7.5 (+105 OVER, -135 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC South: 5/1
Odds to win the NFC: 28/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 50/1


STAFF CHANGES: With a major overhaul before the 2015 season Atlanta wound up 8-8 and only minor changes took place over the winter under Dan Quinn. Former Buccaneers head coach Raheem Morris is switching to offense for the Falcons as an assistant head coach and wide receivers coach. Former Patriots cornerback Jerome Henderson was hired to be the passing game coordinator on defense after working with Dallas in recent seasons.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Defensive End
The Falcons surprised some by not drafting a pass rusher in April and a key position battle this summer will be at defensive end. Veterans Adrian Clayborn, Vic Beasley, Malliciah Goodman, and Derrick Shelby are likely fighting for spots with Tyson Jackson likely the only lock to start after starting 28 games the past two seasons for the Falcons. In late July the Falcons also picked up Efe Obada after he was released by the Chiefs.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: There appears to be an opening for the team in nickel sets with Akramm King, Jalen Collins, and DeMarcus Van Dyke likely in a preseason battle at cornerback. Collins is suspended the first four weeks as he may be at a disadvantage. Starting with 2nd round pick Deion Jones the Falcons have three rookie linebackers in camp. Veterans Paul Worrilow, Tyler Starr, Brooks Reed, and Phillip Wheeler will need to prove they belong in the mix. The offensive line looks mostly set but depth and primary back-up assignments may still be in flux as well.


SEASON OUTLOOK: The rest of the division was overwhelmed by the Panthers last season but Atlanta was the only team to beat Carolina in the regular season. Going 8-8 with a new staff and featuring a clearly improved defense was a solid step forward for the Falcons but Atlanta won just once in the division and went just 4-4 at home as a once-strong home field has softened. This is a team that could go either way, making a playoff push or sinking in a division that could be tightly packed.

CAROLINA PANTHERS
Over/Under Win Total: 10.5 (-115 OVER, -115 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC South: 1/2
Odds to win the NFC: 6/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 12/1

STAFF CHANGES: A lot of Super Bowl teams lose assistants but Carolina will keep most of its staff in place under Ron Rivera. Mike Shula has been the offensive coordinator since 2013 while Sean McDermott has led the defense since 2011 and both are back in 2016. The scouting department had a bit of a shake-up in the summer but overall the staff remains mostly the same as in last season’s very successful campaign.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Wide Receiver
A Panthers team that made the Super Bowl will get back Kelvin Benjamin and Stephen Hill from injury to bolster the receiving corps. Corey Brown and Ted Ginn were significant contributors last season but may be battling for similar roles this season with both in contract seasons. Second-year receiver Devin Funchess could also be fighting for an expanded role in the offense as well.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: With Josh Norman gone a cornerback spot is open and it could be a serious battle this August with veteran Robert McClain joined by three rookie draft picks in Daryl Worley, James Bradberry, and Zack Sanchez as the Panthers made three consecutive picks at the position. Punter Brad Nortman signed with Jacksonville and it appears that Mike Scifres and former CFL kicker Swayze Waters will be in for a preseason battle for kicking duties.


SEASON OUTLOOK: After going 15-1 but suffering a disappointing Super Bowl loss Carolina remains one of the top threats in the NFC. A lot went right for the Panthers last season with a +192 point differential and some big breaks with defensive touchdowns as repeating a 15-1 mark would be a great challenge but a big fall in the standings would be as much of a surprise.


NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Over/Under Win Total: 7 (-105 OVER, -125 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC South: 6/1
Odds to win the NFC: 33/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 66/1

STAFF CHANGES: Dan Campbell was the interim head coach for the Dolphins last season and he was brought on to the Saints staff as an assistant, focusing on tight ends. Joe Lombardi was fired mid-season by the Lions as offensive coordinator and he was re-hired by the Saints as quarterbacks coach, a role he held from 2009-2013 with the team. Former Raiders head coach Dennis Allen is returning as the defensive coordinator after taking over late last season after Rob Ryan was fired. Aaron Glenn is the new secondary coach while Dan Roushar is the offensive line coach.


KEY POSITON BATTLE: Defensive End
The Saints have a strong pass rusher in Cameron Jordan but finding a complement on the other side looks like a major priority this summer. Hau’oli Kikaha was the favorite to take the spot but he may be lost for the season. Bobby Richardson was a successful undrafted free agent pick-up last season and he has some versatility on the line. Kasim Edebali, Obum Gwacham, and Davis Tull will be in the mix for the starting spot with Edebali posting five sacks last season as the most proven player. Sheldon Rankins was also the team’s #1 pick out of Louisville but he looks likely to be slotted in as an interior player in his first season.


OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Slot cornerback will be a key position in NFC South and Damian Swann and P.J. Williams figure to be fighting for a lead role, although the starting spots of Delvin Breaux and Keenan Lewis are not set in stone. Wide Receiver depth looks limited for the Saints behind Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, and rookie 2nd round pick Michael Thomas. Brandon Coleman will get the first look after taking over for Marques Colston last season but the team also likes R.J. Harris to compete for a spot. Kai Forbath and Connor Barth will have a kicking battle as well and the offensive line has some question marks in the guard rotation.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The Saints are still handcuffed by the contract of Drew Brees with a monster cap number this season and while negotiations to adjust that figure could happen, it seems the team will have a hard time getting something major done. New Orleans looks likely to improve defensively this season, albeit that won’t be a huge accomplishment having allowed nearly 30 points per game last season. New Orleans did win three of the final four games last season and has the offensive scheme to put up big numbers on occasion but it would be a surprise if the Saints challenge Carolina for the top spot in the South.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Over/Under Win Total: 7.5 (+110 OVER, -140 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC South: 13/2
Odds to win the NFC: 40/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1


STAFF CHANGES: The Buccaneers were impressed with the work offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter did with rookie Jameis Winston and they decided he was right to take over the team as Lovie Smith was somewhat surprisingly released after two seasons in Tampa. Koetter is the fourth head coach for the team since 2009 and he has hired former Falcons head coach Mike Smith and several of his former assistants on the defensive staff. Nate Kaczor is leading special teams and while Koetter plans to continue to call offensive plays he was able to pry Todd Monken from the college ranks to be his coordinator and wide receivers coach with Monken leading a great turnaround season at Southern Miss last year.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Wide Receiver
The Buccaneers have veteran Vincent Jackson and rising star Mike Evans to lead the receiving corps but there appears to be six other players at the position on the roster. Louis Murphy’s timetable isn’t clear yet but Kenny Bell and Russell Shepard figure to be fighting for targets. Andre Davis, Adam Humphries, and Donteea Dye all should see looks as the team looks for a slot player and a clear pecking order on the roster.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: The Buccaneers don’t have a clear #1 tight end that can cover all the roles of the position. Austin Seferian-Jenkins has had a few big games but continues to fight injuries. Luke Stocker is a great blocking player but hasn’t done much as a receiver while Cameron Brate hasn’t met the call yet. Veteran Brandon Myers was brought back in but isn’t a lock to last on the roster. 6th round pick Dan Vitale was mostly a fullback in college but he could prove to fill a variety of roles on the team and might deem one of the other tight ends unnecessary. Rounding out the defensive end rotation with free agent pick-up Robert Ayers and rookie Noah Spence will be an area to watch this summer while cornerback depth is also going to have some battles in play.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The case can be made for the Buccaneers to be a candidate for a rise to playoff contention this season. Tampa Bay was just 6-10 last season but the coaching transition should be relatively smooth and there is a great deal of young talent supporting Jameis Winston after a solid rookie season at quarterback. The early season schedule is brutally tough facing both 2015 NFC championship teams on the road plus a home date with the Super Bowl champion Broncos in the first five weeks and the Buccaneers may need to weather an early storm to have success.

 

[CNOTES]

AFC West Outlook
July 30, 2016


The AFC West will be one of the 2016 season’s most interesting and most competitive divisions. Here is a look at some of the summer storylines as the preseason approaches for the defending Super Bowl champions and three other West squads aiming for the playoffs.

DENVER BRONCOS
Over/Under Win Total: 9 (-125 OVER, -105 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC West: 2/1
Odds to win the AFC: 8/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 18/1

STAFF CHANGES: After a Super Bowl championship season, the Denver Broncos don’t have any major staff changes to report as Gary Kubiak’s staff will be led by Rick Dennison as the offensive coordinator for the second straight season and his 26th (non-consecutive) season with the team. Veteran coach Wade Phillips is back to lead the defense as well as a coaching staff that won it all in year one will try to do it again

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Quarterback
The Broncos didn’t need spectacular quarterback play last season, but they will be a rare example of a Super Bowl champion not returning with their quarterback, the first since Trent Dilfer wasn’t re-signed by the Ravens for the 2001 season. It is assumed that Mark Sanchez will be leading the Broncos, but Trevor Siemian could be a wild card and the Broncos also drafted Paxton Lynch late in the first round. Siemian impressed the team last season as a seventh round pick and his arm strength and athleticism could keep him in the mix if Sanchez fails to take a firm hold of the spot.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: The success of the defense last season led to some departures and while the starting secondary looks locked in, there will be some battles for depth, particularly at cornerback with a casualty likely among Keyvon Webster, Tarurean Nixon, and Lorenzo Doss. Keeping Von Miller grabbed the headlines this summer for the Broncos, but the team lost Danny Trevathan to the Bears to open up a linebacker spot. Nose tackle also should feature a battle between Sylvester Williams and Darius Kilgo who both contributed last season.

SEASON OUTLOOK: Denver has some risk to be a Super Bowl champion that fails to make the playoffs the next season. Denver was the AFC’s top seed, but they weren’t far from missing the playoffs entirely heading into the final weeks last season. Five AFC teams had a superior point differential to the Broncos last season and while Peyton Manning didn’t have a great statistical season, his leadership proved pivotal in the many narrow wins the team had. Add that the competition in the West looks steep with the Raiders and Chargers likely to improve and the Chiefs still formidable, a fall for the Broncos looks possible if the defense is unable to carry the team again.


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Over/Under Win Total: 9.5 (-115 OVER, -115 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC West: 2/1
Odds to win the AFC: 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 28/1

STAFF CHANGES: The Chiefs made 10 coaching changes this off-season although few were headline-grabbing moves. Primary among those moves for Andy Reid’s staff was Britt Reid promoted to defensive line coach and Al Harris taking over coaching the secondary. A handful of college coaches have also been added to the staff including two former UCLA assistants.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Cornerback
The Chiefs would not pay Sean Smith a big contract and he left for division rival Oakland to open up a starting cornerback spot. It will be a young group led by Marcus Peters who had a great rookie season, but the replacement options for Smith include less proven options like Phillip Gaines and Steven Nelson. Marcus Cooper is also an option with some experience and the Chiefs addressed the position heavily in the draft picking three corners, led by KeiVarae Russell in the third round out of Notre Dame.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Alex Smith is certainly entrenched as the starter for the Chiefs, but they lost back-up Chase Daniel, who went to Philadelphia with hopes of competing for a starting role. Daniel impressed in the preseason in three years behind Smith but never got a significant opportunity. Three young quarterbacks are on the roster with no clear leader in the battle between Tyler Bray, Aaron Murray, and rookie Kevin Hogan. Bray has the most experience and the strongest arm, but this will be a key battle that will be given time to work out in the preseason. The Chiefs also may have a battle at right guard as well as some competition with wide receiver depth.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The Chiefs went 11-5 last season while posting twice the point differential of the Broncos, but the slow start to the season left Denver with the division title and favorable playoff seed. Kansas City won a playoff game last season and the Chiefs have the pieces to be a viable AFC contender, although the AFC West looks like a difficult division. No team did better in the AFC last season with a 10-2 record in conference games and with the years continuing to add up for Alex Smith and Andy Reid, this figures to be a critical season in Kansas City to take the next step.


OAKLAND RAIDERS
Over/Under Win Total: 8.5 (-130 OVER, EVEN UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC West: 5/2
Odds to win the AFC: 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 25/1

STAFF CHANGES: It was a competitive first season for Jack Del Rio’s staff with the Raiders going 7-9, the best finish for the franchise since 2011. Oakland has not made the playoffs since losing the Super Bowl after the 2002 season and the staff has mostly been held together for the 2016 season. The offense under Bill Musgrave had a great start to the season before slipping late in the year while Ken Norton’s defense struggled early and came on late. This season, the team will look for more complete and consistent performances while also facing elevated expectations.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Right Tackle
After a great battle last season, Austin Howard won the spot last season as Menelik Watson was injured before the season opener. Howard was passable in 13 starts last season, but Watson figures to make a push for the starting spot again this season. The Raiders did not address the position in the draft of free agency as they fell they feel they have what they need on the roster.


OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Connor Cook was picked up in the draft and he may push Matt McGloin in a battle for the backup spot at quarterback behind Derek Carr. At safety, Karl Joseph will be under a close watch as he is recovering from a knee injury, but still was deemed worthy of the team’s first round pick. Running back depth will also be of interest behind Latavius Murray with a complementary back needed to step up. Rookie DeAndre Washington out of Texas Tech will get looks while speedster Taiwan Jones is still on the roster.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The competitive 7-9 season was a step forward for the Raiders last season, but the team was once 4-3 before the offense started to struggle late in the season. Oakland did win at Denver last December, but it was an ugly 15-12 win with Brock Osweiler starting for the Broncos and Denver had nearly a 3:1 yardage edge. That was the only win vs. a playoff team for the Raiders last season and the schedule is loaded with long travel miles and few easy games in a very competitive division. The expectations are elevated and handling the added pressure of the first significant meaningful games for the franchise in a long time will be a challenge.


SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Over/Under Win Total: 7 (-115 OVER, -115 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC West: 13/2
Odds to win the AFC: 33/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 66/1


STAFF CHANGES: Mike McCoy’s spot leading the Chargers was certainly a question mark after a very disappointing 2015 season. McCoy was retained and the big move is bringing back Ken Whisenhunt as the offensive coordinator. Whisenhunt had a great 2013 season with the Chargers in that role before taking the Tennessee head coaching position. John McNulty is following Whisenhunt from Tennessee as the new tight ends coach, while former Patriots offensive line coach Dave DeGuglielmo was also added to the staff although Jeff Davidson will be the new offensive line coach. Craig Aukerman was promoted to special teams coordinator and former All-Pro Chris Harris will be an assistant with the defensive backs. Former Jacksonville defensive coordinator Bob Babich was also added to coach the linebackers as there were many changes to piece together a staff in what will be a critical year for McCoy though his contract does now run through 2017.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Center
After going through five different starting centers last season, this spot is the most important of the summer for San Diego. Trevor Robinson ended the season as the team’s center but they added former Bears center Matt Slauson and drafted Max Tuerk in the third round out of USC. Former starter Chris Watt is also still on the roster and while Slauson is the presumed starter, the team added four lineman and two new offensive line coaches since last season as there is a lot to be sorted out.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: With Joey Bosa still unsigned, the defensive line has some question marks. Locked into spots should be Corey Liuget and free agent addition Brandon Mebane, but after that there will be battles in August with eight other defensive lineman on the roster, not counting Bosa. Safety is another area on defense with reasonable depth, but lacking standout proven starters. Rookie Adrian McDonald has shown a lot of promise in camp and Darrel Stuckey will likely keep a spot for his excellent special teams abilities. Depth at wide receiver and tight end should also feature some competition on offense while backup quarterback could be a true one-on-one battle between Zach Mettenberger and Kellen Clemens.

SEASON OUTLOOK: Last season, the Los Angeles cloud hung over the Chargers all season and while that prospect isn’t going away, the team should enter 2016 with a bit more stability with McCoy extended and with a team that lost nine games by eight or fewer points. Getting a few of those games to go the other way could dramatically change the season for San Diego with the Chargers featuring a defense that was formidable down the stretch last season. The offensive line should be much more stable this season and that should lead to improvement throughout the offense and a worst-to-first scenario isn’t all that unrealistic even though it is a difficult division with three other teams that expect to be playoff teams. The Chargers still look like the #4 team in the West to most, but they are a team that could surprise.

 

[CNOTES]

NFC West Outlook
August 2, 2016


NFC West The West has been one of the strongest divisions in the NFL with three of the last four NFC Super Bowl representatives from the West and a wild card out of the division each of the last four years as the division has 12 postseason wins in that four-year span. Most expect Arizona and Seattle to be serious contenders in 2015 while the NFL is finally back in Los Angeles in the return season for the Rams.


ARIZONA CARDINALS


Over/Under Win Total: 9.5 (-165 OVER, +135 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC West: 7/5
Odds to win the NFC: 6/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 12/1


STAFF CHANGES: The Cardinals promoted James Bettcher before the 2015 season to defensive coordinator and he had a strong season replacing Todd Bowles. Head Coach Bruce Arians has retained assistants Tom Moore and Harold Goodwin to lead the offense again in 2016 as most of the staff has returned after the team lost in the NFC Championship last season.


KEY POSITON BATTLE: Center
The Cardinals expect A.Q. Shipley to be the starting center but 4th round draft pick Evan Boehm has put a lot of pressure on in camp, impressing after a strong career at Missouri. Earl Watford is another versatile lineman that will get looks at center. Shipley’s job looks safe but the team will be excited to see Boehm in live game action.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: There is a lot of sorting out to do in the secondary with three starting spots potentially open at corner and safety and solid groups of players competing. There will also be special teams tests done to organize those groups. The defensive line will also be under watch for the Cardinals in the preseason.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The season ended poorly with an ugly loss to Carolina in the NFC Championship but it was a great season for the Cardinals with a 13-3 record and a dominant point differential on the season. Arizona figures to be on the short list of NFC favorites and they have a very favorable early season as the Cardinals could be the pace-setters in September and October.



LOS ANGELES RAMS


Over/Under Win Total: 7.5 (+120 OVER, -150 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC West: 15/2
Odds to win the NFC: 33/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 66/1


STAFF CHANGES: Some expected a change after the announcement that the team was moving from St. Louis to Los Angeles but Jeff Fisher is a native to the area and played his college ball at USC, looking like a great candidate to lead the renewal of the NFL in the area despite four straight losing seasons with the Rams. Five assistants were released in January however including changes on special teams, running backs, and wide receivers positions. Rob Boras is the team’s new offensive coordinator, promoted from leading the tight ends while Gregg Williams is the defensive coordinator

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Quarterback
The Rams traded to get the #1 pick in April’s draft and selected Jared Goff out of California. He may get a chance to start right away as Nick Foles was recently released. Case Keenum has some NFL experience and looks like the main option if Goff is not deemed ready to start from Week 1. Sean Mannion is also on the roster after briefly appearing once last season in his first season out of Oregon State.


OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Cory Harkey and Lance Kendricks are holdover tight ends with the departure of Jared Cook to Green Bay. The Rams also drafted both Tyler Higbee and Temarrick Hemingway as the position could turn over significantly. The Rams could be without both of last season’s starting safeties as Rodney McLeod signed with the Eagles and T.J. McDonald had an off-season incident that may leave his role in question. Kenny Britt and Brian Quick could be pushed by rookie Pharoh Cooper at wide receiver as well.

SEASON OUTLOOK: Enthusiasm will be high with the move to Los Angeles but the Rams reside in a tough division and the move will increase the travel demand significantly in a year where the Rams will also give up a home game to play in London. Los Angeles has some talented pieces on defense and at times the unit shined last season but getting consistent results from the offense has been an ongoing problem throughout Fisher’s tenure with the franchise.




SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS


Over/Under Win Total: 5.5 (-115 OVER, -115 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC West: 20/1
Odds to win the NFC: 40/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1

STAFF CHANGES: Chip Kelly was fired before last season ended in Philadelphia and while the Eagles were a big disappointment last season Kelly has a winning NFL record in three seasons. He inherits a challenging situation in San Francisco as Jim Tomasula was released after just one season. Kelly brought on former Lions assistant and Curtis Modkins as his offensive coordinator, a role he had with the Bills from 2010-12. Leading the defense is Jim O’Neil who was the defensive coordinator with the Browns the past two seasons. A handful of 2015 assistants were retained on the staff including former 49ers fullback Tom Rathman who has been an assistant on the team through four coaching changes.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Quarterback
The 49ers mostly had better success behind Blaine Gabbert last season, touting a much more accurate arm but lacking the dynamic ground presence of Colin Kaerpernick. Kaepernick led the 49ers to the Super Bowl just a few years ago and remains the face of the franchise but he is recovering from off-season surgery and the quarterback decision will be the biggest decision Kelly will need to make for 2016. San Francisco did pick up Jeff Driskel in the 6th round of the draft and he will get some snaps in August as well.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Cornerback features a group with limited experience but a lot of draft picks have been used on the position in recent years as there should be suitable options. Tramaine Brock started last season and is the most established in the group while Kenneth Acker also saw some productive time last season. Jimmie Ward and Dontae Johnson will be in the mix along with three rookie draft picks led by Will Redmond from Mississippi State who was picked in the 3rd round.

SEASON OUTLOOK: Not much was expected when Chip Kelly took over the Eagles but in year one a division title was delivered, led by unheralded quarterback Nick Foles. Kelly will hope to work similar magic on a 49ers roster that has turned over significantly in recent seasons after the fallout from Jim Harbaugh’s departure two years ago. Delivering a division title with this group in year one would be a remarkable accomplishment as the West appears to have a pair of serious contenders and by most accounts the 49ers were one of the league’s worst teams last season.




SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Over/Under Win Total: 10.5 (-140 OVER, +110 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC West: 10/11
Odds to win the NFC: 9/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 9/1

STAFF CHANGES: Seattle made a few minor changes under Pete Carroll as he enters just his sixth season with the franchise, leading a great run of success. Kris Richard will be in his second season as defensive coordinator and Darrell Bevell remains the offensive coordinator despite annually being in the rumor mill as a potential head coaching hire elsewhere.


KEY POSITON BATTLE: Offensive Line
While the retirement of Marshawn Lynch made the biggest waves the Seahawks also lost Russell Okung and J.R. Sweezy in free agency and the running game could suffer greatly. It is a young group and with the team having to pay Russell Wilson and some of the defensive stars the offensive line was not the priority. Garry Gilliam and Bradley Sowell will be in the mix at left tackle while rookie Rees Odhiambo could push Mark Glowinski at right guard. Justin Britt and Patrick Lewis also figure to have a head-to-head battle at center.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Running back is assumed to be led by Thomas Rawls but Christine Michael is also back with the team after finding some success late last season after bouncing around with three teams. Three running backs were picked up in the draft led by C.J. Prosise in the 3rd round. A new back-up quarterback will also be on the roster for the Seahawks with free agent Jake Heaps and rookie Trevone Boykin in play for that spot but a veteran could also be signed at some point. The defense figures to remain fierce but the biggest question mark could be at linebacker on the strong side, needing to replace Bruce Irvin. Mike Morgan is a solid option but from other positions Cassius Marsh and Eric Pinkins could get a look in that role.


SEASON OUTLOOK: The Seahawks should remain on the shortlist of NFC contenders. The 2015 team was relegated to a wild card with a handful of narrow losses and with a favorable early season schedule the West could be Seattle’s to reclaim. It would be a surprise if the Seahawks didn’t return to the playoffs but the line and running game will need to hold up once the schedule stiffens in the second half. Now paying their star quarterback a real quarterback salary the Seahawks have had to pinch the numbers in other areas and that could start to show up this season.

 

[CNOTES]

2016 NFL Betting Preview: Baltimore Ravens


The Baltimore Ravens were 5-11 last season, and it was the worst season of the John Harbaugh tenure. The Ravens were very aggressive in the offseason with the additions of Mike Wallace, Benjamin Watson and Eric Weddle.


The Ravens grabbed 11 quality players in the 2016 NFL Draft, and those guys will go along with quality veterans such as Joe Flacco, Steve Smith Sr and running back Justin Forsett. The Ravens did not stay healthy a season ago, and that’s what they are hoping for this season.

Baltimore Offense in 2016
Joe Flacco just keeps on ticking as the quarterback of the Baltimore Ravens. The one guy that has pretty much been through all the emotions with the organization would be Mr. Flacco. He will turn to Steve Smith Sr, if he can finally remain healthy is his older age. The other weapons for the Ravens are Kamar Aiken, and Mike Wallace.


Justin Forsett will get the first chance at running back, with Javorius Allen behind. The tight end position is a great fight in the preseason with guys like Benjamin Watson, Dennis Pitta and Crockett Gillmore all fighting for the position.

Ravens on Defense
Dean Pees is the defensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens. Pees looks to lean on guys like Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil, who both have a ton of experience in the league. The Ravens also will turn to free safety LaDarius Webb, with Jimmy Smith and Eric Weddle as members of the fearsome defense.


Baltimore will have a special teams weapon this season with Keenan Reynolds, who was quite the star in college. Look for him to play in several situations for Coach Harbaugh and the Baltimore Ravens.

Ravens 2016 Schedule
The Baltimore Ravens start the 2016 season with a home game against the Buffalo Bills. That’s the lone home game in the first month, as they then head to Cleveland and Jacksonville. Following that, the Ravens start October with back to back home games against the Raiders and the Redskins, and end the month with back to back games in New York, against the Giants and Jets.


In November, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns come to town. The final two games of November for the Ravens start in Dallas, and then end just after Thanksgiving against the Cincinnati Bengals.


The final five games of the season for Baltimore start with the Miami Dolphins at home, a road trip to New England, home game against the Eagles, a road trip to Pittsburgh, and then the final game of the season for the Baltimore Ravens is on the road at the Cincinnati Bengals.


Betting on Baltimore
The Baltimore Ravens could be a trendy pick this season. With Pittsburgh as the sexy pick, and Cincinnati as a little bit of an older pick, the Ravens could be there. If you want to bet on the Baltimore Ravens, you can start wagering them with the win total.


MyBookie has placed the total win total for the Ravens at 8.5 wins. That’s third place in their own division. The Baltimore Ravens odds to win the Super Bowl are interesting. The odds to win the Super Bowl for the Baltimore Ravens come in at 32-1. There is a look at the betting odds over at MyBookie for the Baltimore Ravens, out of the AFC North.

 

[CNOTES]

2016 NFL Betting Preview: Los Angeles Rams


The first season for the Rams in Los Angeles is upon us. While the Rams left St. Louis irritating the fan base, they will have a great crowd awaiting them when they play their home games at the Coliseum. Jeff Fisher remains the head coach for the Rams, but he may have his quarterback.


Will Fisher really go with Case Keenum to start the season, or will they go with their rookie right away in Jared Goff. Goff is coming into the league from California, where he was fantastic. The Rams may have the best running back in all of football in Todd Gurley. Things will be interesting for the 2016 Los Angeles Rams.

Rams Offensively
It’s the same cast of characters for the Rams, with the exception of maybe the quarterback. Maybe. Will Case Keenum get the first chance to start, or will they go right with their rookie Jared Goff? Todd Gurley was better than many projected a season ago, winning the offensive rookie of the year award. Can Gurley get on the field for 16 games is the big question this season.


The offensive line should be better, after last season seeing Greg Robinson have a poor season, and Rodger Safford missed games. The receiving core for the Rams has added fourth round pick Pharoh Cooper to go along with Kenny Britt, Brian Quick and Tavon Austin.

Los Angeles on Defense
The Los Angeles Rams have shown flashes of greatness over the last couple seasons. This will be the third season under Gregg Williams. The Rams made some changes to their defense, letting Janoris Jenkins, Rodney McLeod, James Laurinaitis and Chris Long gone.


The Rams will look to Alec Ogletree, Robert Quinn, Michael Brockers and Aaron Donald to lead the charge. Los Angeles signed Dominqiue Easley, who was released from the New England Patriots.

Rams 2016 Schedule
The Los Angeles Rams start their 2016 season on the road at the San Francisco 49ers in a divisional rivalry. Then, the Rams get their first game in Los Angeles, as they take on the Seattle Seahawks. The Rams finish September with a road trip to Tampa Bay. Once October arrives, the Rams head out on the road at the Arizona Cardinals, before a home game with the Buffalo Bills.


The final two games in October are on the road at Detroit, and at home against the New York Giants. In November, the Rams start the month at home with the Carolina Panthers, before heading out East to take on the New York Jets. The Miami Dolphins come to town, before they go on the road to New Orleans.


The first of the final five games for the Rams are at New England, at home with Atlanta, on the road at Seattle, and then they finish at home with the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals.

Betting on Los Angeles
The Los Angeles Rams are one of those teams that if they are going to put things together and make a deep postseason run, this could be it. The first season in Los Angeles will be interesting. How can they adapt will be the biggest question mark.


The win total at MyBookie for the Los Angeles Rams indicates what they do about every season under Jeff Fisher. The Rams are listed at 7.5 wins. That’s third in the NFC West, behind the Seahawks and Cardinals, and only ahead of the San Francisco 49ers. If you are thinking about the Los Angeles Rams to do the unthinkable, and win the Super Bowl, you can grab them at 60-1 odds at MyBookie.

 

[CNOTES]

Buying the Browns
August 9, 2016


Are the Cleveland Browns really the worst team in the NFL?


If looking at odds board all along the Las Vegas strip, the answer is yes. And there's lots of recent history to support the notion.


The Browns haven't had a winning record since 2007 (10-6) and they haven't made the playoffs since losing a Wild Card game in 2002. They come off an awful 3-13 season finishing dead last in the AFC North for the fifth consecutive year.


So it's not hard to understand why the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has them listed as the longest shot to win the Super Bowl at 200/1 -- double the next longest odds -- and also the lowest season win total at 4.5 (Over -155) -- the next lowest is Tennessee and San Francisco at 5.5 victories.


The crew at the CG Technology sport book hub office inside M Resort also don't have a high rating on the 2016 version of the Browns. They posted the first 16 weeks of spreads for every team in April and the Browns weren't favored in any of them. Not even one home game. The smallest spread placed upon them is a Week 16 game where the Chargers are 2-point road favorites.


CG has the Browns as their lowest rated team, just a point worse than Tennessee who are 3.5-point favorites in a Week 6 matchup in Nashville. If going by last year's awful numbers, the rating is hard to argue against as their average score was 17-27. They couldn't stop the run or pass on defense and their offense was almost as bad.


But action for Week 1 has actually come in on the Browns.


"One of the biggest moves we've had in Week 1 has seen the Browns drop from +8.5 to +6.5 at Philadelphia," said CG Technology's VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "But I don't think those wagers on the Browns were necessarily because of bettors liking them as much as they don't like the Eagles. There's a lot of anti-Eagles sentiment with smart money. One (respected) bettor bet against the Eagles in 13 of their 16 games we have have posted. And it doesn't just stop there with weekly games.


To make the playoffs, the NO on Philly opened -170 and it's now -240 and the season win total went from 7.5 UNDER -115 to -155."


As for the Browns, Simbal said they have seen action on them to win the AFC North with the number dropping from 35/1 down to 20/1 odds, citing a lot of small action with the largest wager being $200 at 30/1. But bettors also laid -1000 for Cleveland not to make the playoffs (again) and it's now -1200 with the YES at +750.


The Westgate also has seen some action on the Browns to win the division where its odds have dropped from 35/1 down to 25/1. Pittsburgh is the 6/5 favorite, followed by last years division winner Cincinnati at 3/2 and Baltimore at 7/2. Just like CG, the action has been small, but the risk builds up quickly at large numbers like that.


Could there just be some sentimental believing in Believe-land lately with the Cavs winning a title in the city for the first time since 1964 and the first-place Indians looking at a postseason birth? Is it possible the winning vibe soaking up the city could help the initial mindset of the Browns?


One thing for sure is this years Browns have a much different look than 2015. They have a new head coach, the offensive-minded Hue Jackson, and they also got a new QB in Robert Griffin III, who was just named the starter on Monday.


Rookie first-round pick Corey Coleman out of Baylor has been impressing in camp to the point he's been listed as the starter along side converted QB Terrell Pryor who is proving to have great hands and has been a beast to cover. Griffin's Baylor teammate, WR Josh Gordon, will also be back after serving a four-game suspension to start the season. All-Pro CB Joe Haden, who only played five games last season, has been cleared to practice and will be ready for Week 1 at Philadelphia.


"I think they have a good infrastructure in place with Hue Jackson and an improved roster to be good, or at least better than expected," Simbal said.


Obviously the key is Griffin at QB. The Browns will only go as far as he can take them and the hope is that he'll be healthy enough to have a re-birth in Cleveland after being immature at times and showing a lack of leadership in Washington that helped make the decision to bench him easy. Sometimes a change of scenery is the best thing that can happen to a player and Griffin is still young and athletic enough to make special plays. In 1980 the Oakland Raiders were coming off two straight seasons of not making the playoffs and former Heisman Trophy winner Jim Plunkett led the them to a Super Bowl win when getting his chance to start again.


"Throughout the offseason program and training camp, Robert (Griffin) has shown improvement every day," Hue Jackson said in a press release Monday, "and we expect him to continue to ascend as he becomes more and more acclimated to the offensive system we will employ this season. I've been crystal clear on what we expect from Robert. He fully understands the responsibility and I feel he is ready to handle this role."


I'm looking for Griffin to be better than most are expecting and I also expect the team to get better along the way. They play six of their last nine games at home and could be vying for a playoff position, or dare I say, a division title.


I'm believing in Cleveland this season which has me thinking 9-7 is a strong possibility making all their final six home games currently posted at CG having nice value, as well as OVER 4.5 wins.


Getting +4 against the Jets in Week 8 is attractive, so is +5 against Dallas in Week 9, +8.5 against Pittsburgh in Week 11, +3.5 against the Giants in Week 12, +7.5 against Cincinnati in Week 14 and +2 against the Chargers in Week 16. They should have the most rapidly adjusted rating by Week 7 when things start to really jell.


Still, it's hard to change old habits and grasp reality sometimes. Cleveland has averaged only 4.6 wins a year the past eight seasons. I could be way off, but I'm definitely a believer this year.

 

[CNOTES]

Coaching often key to preseason success


No, we didn’t really miss much. However, the first opportunity to cash an NFL ticket was wasted, especially if you got in on fading Green Bay before the line moved to Indianapolis -3 at many spots. The combination of Scott Tolzien and Stephen Morris was going to offer the Colts a major edge in experience alone, and you have to take any advantage you can get when it comes to betting pro football’s preseason.


There’s certainly a level of tooting my own horn to the following, but it’s just to establish credibility. Over the past six NFL preseasons, the below are my ATS records at VegasInsider.com:


2010: 29-24-2 (54.7 +227)


2011: 44-35 (55.7 +550)


2012: 35-13-1 (72.9 +1992)


2013: 26-25 (51.0 -196)


2014: 27-15 (64.3 +950)


2015: 31-13-1 (70.5 +1672)


Between sides and totals, there are always going to be opportunities to take advantage of legwork that needs to be done to consistently turn a profit in the preseason.


Personnel comes first and foremost. Who is playing? How long are they going to go? Because coaches are badgered by media during these dog days of summer on a daily basis and they often have little concrete to say, most will at least be forthcoming with that information.


There are some who simply put no effort into wanting to win these games and others who seem to relish in seeing their team be successful when they’re out there between the lines and there’s someone operating a scoreboard.


Seattle’s Pete Carroll had a ridiculous nine-game winning streak that stretched from the final game of the 2011 preseason into the 2014 opener. Carroll’s Seahawks then won the next two games by a combined margin of 75-20 to make it 11-for-12. Obviously, Seattle has been one of the NFL’s best franchises throughout his tenure, but a lot of its preseason dominance can simply be tied to a desire to be their best at all times while others are content going through the motions.


Chip Kelly’s Eagles put on a show last preseason, outscoring their first three opponents by 115-53 count as they looked for a quarterback and attempted to give all the combatants, Tim Tebow included, equal opportunities to play at a faster tempo. It will be interesting to see how Kelly handles things in his first preseason with the 49ers, but there’s a QB controversy there too.


Minnesota’s Mike Zimmer won all four of his preseason contests in his first year as head coach and then went 4-0 last year before losing a fifth preseason contest the Vikings were only playing due to their appearance in the Hall of Fame game. Even though he’s downplayed the Vikes success in these exhibitions, it’s clear that how we and his staff coach them produces results.


New England's Bill Belichick has never put much emphasis on what transpires in August, but saw Deflategate interfere with his handling of Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo affect last year. This year will yield more of the same now that it’s certain that Brady will be unavailable for the regular season’s first four games, which means Belichick will have to walk the line of preparing Garoppolo to start while also making sure he keeps him upright until the lights come on.


Kansas City's Andy Reid has never been big on preseason results, but fellow QB gurus turned head coaches like Sean Payton and Gary Kubiak seem to have more success than most. It’s not a quarterback thing, either. Jason Garrett has had little success with the Cowboys this time of year, while Ken Whisenhunt, now offensive coordinator in San Diego, mostly struggled in August while with Tennessee and Arizona.


Although we’ve most talked coaches, that’s not the end-all, be-all with what you need to know to take advantage of a time where spreads aren’t bloated and uncertainly prevails due to playing time concerns involved with giving everyone a fair look.


There’s definitely a level of nuance to it, but anyone who tells you that you can’t consistently bank on the NFL preseason because it’s too difficult to predict simply doesn’t know where to look. It’s too bad that overlooking the field conditions in Canton until it was too late to prevent the Hall of Fame game’s cancellation kept us from one additional chance to capitalize.