NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Wednesday, March 15
Play-in games, Dayton
Wednesday
North Carolina Central won at Northern Kentucky and Missouri, lost by 6 at Ohio State; they’re 20-3 vs teams outside the top 200. Eagles are most experienced team in country, starting five seniors- they lost by 18 to Iowa State in NCAA’s three years ago. MEAC teams are 3-3 in play-in games, winning last two. Cal-Davis is in NCAA’s for first time; they start two senior guards, are 5-6 vs teams in top 200. Three years ago, Cal Poly of Big West won their play-in game by 12. Last six years, favorites are 5-5-1 vs spread in the “JV (16-seed) ” play-in game.
Providence beat USC 70-69 in an 8-9 first round game LY, scoring on an OB under play as the game ended, a game Trojans led by 5 with 2:21 left. Friars are in NCAA’s for 4th year in row (1-3 last three years, with USC with only win); they won six of last seven games, are #278 experience team, starting four juniors. Southern Cal is 3-5 in its last eight games; they went 13-0 vs #251 pre-conference schedule. USC is #326 experience team; they start a freshman, three sophs; this is much longer trip for them than for Friars. Trojans are 2-6 vs teams in the top 60.
Thursday’s NCAA games
Day games
Notre Dame lost in regional finals the last two years; they’re 2-7 vs spread in last nine first round games, winning last two years by 4-7 points. Princeton won its last 19 games; their last loss was 96-90 to Monmouth Dec 19. Tigers are 1-4 vs top 100 teams, with losses by 9-11-11-6 points and a 72-70 win at Bucknell- they’re in NCAA’s for first time since 2011, when they lost 59-57 (+13) as a 13-seed vs Kentucky; Ivy League teams are 5-2 vs spread in first round last seven years (4-3 SU). Princeton played Sunday, now has early game Thursday; not best scenario.
Virginia went 9-7 down stretch after starting season 16-3; they won four of last five games, with all four wins by 10+ points. Cavaliers play slowest-tempo games in country, are #16 team in country at protecting ball. NC-Wilmington won its last seven games; they’re 11-2 outside CAA, with one of losses by 14 at Clemson of ACC. Seahawks are #57 experience team, starting three seniors, two sophomores; they force turnovers 20.4% of time. Virginia won their last three first round games, by 11-12-36 points. Since ’09, CAA teams are 8-2 vs spread in first round games. Last four years, underdogs are 10-6 vs spread in 5-12 first round games.
Winthrop is in NCAA’s for first time since 2010; they’re #31 experience team, starting three seniors and a junior. Eagles lost by 14 at Florida St, 16 at Dayton- they won at Illinois in their games vs “bigtime” teams. Winthrop makes 38% of its 3-pointers, accounting for 36.7% of their points. Butler lost its last two games, split their last ten games; they’re 5-1 vs teams outside top 100, with three wins by 16+ points. Bulldogs won first round games the last two years, by 8-10 points. Since ’08, Big South teams are 2-5 vs spread in first round games.
Gonzaga hammered South Dakota 102-65 Dec 21; Coyotes finished four games ahead of rival South Dakota State in Summit standings- does that make Zags overconfident here? Over last seven years, Gonzaga is 5-2 vs spread in first round games; last time they were a 1-seed (’13) they won their first round game 64-58. Jackrabbits lost first six D-I games this season; they lost by 29 at Cal, 12 to East Tennessee St, 28 at Northern Iowa, 22 to Wichita State in non-league games vs good teams. Since ’03, Summit League teams are 4-8-2 vs spread in first round, 4-4 last eight years.
Bucknell won 18 of its last 21 games, winning last six; they lost by 20 at Wake Forest, by 26 at Butler, but also won at Vanderbilt. Patriot League teams are 0-4 vs spread in this round the last four years, losing by 12-40-41-39 points; Bucknell is in tourney for first time since 68-56 (+3) loss to Butler four years ago. West Virginia lost in first round LY to SF Austin; Mountaineers force turnovers 28.1% of time, #1 in country- they’re 3-5 vs spread in last eight first round games. Last three years, underdogs are 7-5 vs spread in 4-13 first round games.
Florida lost three of last four games, all to Vandy/Kentucky; Gators are 19-0 this season vs teams ranked outside top 50- this is coach White’s first NCAA tourney in his sixth year as a head coach. East Tennessee State won 13 of its last 15 games; they’re #7 experience team in country, starting a junior, four seniors. Buccaneers played two SEC teams this year, losing to Tennessee by 4 at home, winning by 2 at Miss State- ETSU coach Forbes was an assistant at Tennessee for six years. Last three years, dogs are 7-5 vs spread in 4-13 first round games.
5-seed Minnesota is a 1-point favorite over 12-seed Middle Tennessee? Gophers are in NCAA tourney for first time since ’13; they’ve won nine of last 11 games, but lost senior G Springs over weekend- they played only six guys in last game (three played 39:00+). Blue Raiders beat Michigan St in first round LY; they’re 20-1 in last 21 games, 5-1 vs top 100 teams, with wins over UNCW, Ole Miss, Vandy, Belmont. Last three years, Big 14 teams are 8-14 vs spread (12-8 SU) in first round games. Last six years, C-USA teams are 4-2 vs spread in this round.
Northwestern is in NCAA’s for first time, despite going 5-7 in its last 12 games; Wildcats are 4-6 vs top 40 teams this season, with best win at Wisconsin- they start two juniors, two seniors, are healthier now with Lindsey (mono) back in lineup. Vanderbilt won seven of its last nine games; they were only 6-6 in pre-conference games, going 0-5 vs top 50 teams- they’re 6-9 overall vs top 50 teams this season. Drew was in NCAA’s twice as Valpo’s coach, losing first round games by 3-11 points. Commodores are 1-5 in last six NCAA tournament games.
Night games
Maryland is #317 experience team, playing three frosh around star PG Trimble; Terps are 4-6 in their last ten games after a 20-2 start when they won eight games by 6 or less points- they beat Georgetown by point in only game vs Big East foe. Xavier lost seven of last ten games; two of three wins were over doormat DePaul; Musketeers are 6-7 since Somner got hurt, but Bluiett is back, playing 38:00+ in seven games since he returned. Xavier played three starters 38:00+ in last game, a 4th kid 34:00- they’re 9-3 in last 12 first round games. Underdogs are 5-3 SU in 6-11 games the last two years.
VCU split its last six games after a 23-5 start; Rams are 4-2 in last six first round games- they’re #40 experience team, forcing turnovers 21% of time (#36)- they start four seniors. St Mary’s is in NCAA’s for first time since ’13; 2-3 vs top 60 teams, with three losses to Gonzaga, wins over Dayton, Nevada back in November (VCU split pair with Dayton). Gaels are #84 experience team, playing 2nd-slowest tempo in country; they start three juniors, two seniors- they’ve got #4 eFG% in country. Last six years, underdogs are 14-9-1 vs spread in 7-10 games.
Purdue lost in first round LY as a 5-seed; their last tourney win was in ’12. Boilers won eight of last ten games with both losses to Michigan- they’re #23 experience team- no seniors start. Vermont won its last 21 games, is in its first NCAA since 2012; Catamounts lost to Providence by 22, Butler by 12, So Carolina by 18; their best win was over #111 Harvard. Vermont is #93 experience team, but start only one senior. America East teams are 6-6 vs spread in last 12 tourney games, but Albany was 5-1, rest of league is 1-5 vs spread. Last three years, underdog is 7-5 vs spread in 4-13 games— since ’13, single digit underdogs are 5-4 in 4-13 games.
Florida State is in NCAA’s for first time since 2012; they split last four first round games (1-3 vs spread). Seminoles split their last eight games- they’re #306 experience team, starting frosh and two sophs- their bench plays #23 minutes in country. FSU is 11-1 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with ten wins by 14+ points- the only loss was to Temple. Florida Gulf Coast won 19 of last 21 games; they’re 0-3 vs top 50 teams, losing by 21 to Florida, 1 at Michigan St, 9 at Baylor- they lost by 16 to UNC in this round LY. Last four years, double digit favorites are 4-3 vs spread in 4-13 games.
Virginia Tech is in NCAA’s for first time since ’07; Hokies are 2-0 vs Big 14 teams, winning by 3 at Michigan, by 13 over Nebraska on neutral floor. Tech starts two juniors, two seniors; they’re #103 experience team- they make 40.3% of their 3’s (#9 in country). Wisconsin beat Syracuse by 17, lost by 15 to UNC; Badgers are 4-6 in last 10 games (3-1 in last four)- they start four seniors, but are #306 at defending arc (37.7%). Last three years, favorites are 6-4 vs spread in 8-9 games; last five years, favorites of 4+ points are 6-2 vs spread in 8-9 games.
Arizona won five of its last six first round games; they’re 2-6 vs spread in last eight first round games, 4-6 in last 10 first round games when laying double digits. When Wildcats won Pac-12 tourney two years ago, they won first round game by 21. Arizona is #323 experience team, with two frosh and a soph starting. North Dakota is here for first time; Hawks went 2-5 vs D-I teams in pre-conference. UND plays #34 tempo in country. Big Sky teams lost last ten NCAA 1st round games (2-8 vs spread); last SU winner was Montana in ’06.
Since ’08, Mountain West teams other than San Diego State are 5-22 vs spread in NCAA tournament, 4-16 in the first round. Nevada is in NCAA’s for first time since ’07; they’ve got a former NBA coach, start three sophs- their bench plays 2nd-least minutes in country. Since ’94, underdogs in 5-12 game in this region are 18-5 vs spread, 15-8 SU. Over last four years, dogs are 11-5 vs spread in 5-12 games. Iowa State is #6 experience team in country, starting four seniors; they’re 4-1 in last five first round games, with all four wins by 13+ points.
Friday’s games
Day games
Oklahoma State lost its last three games, all to Kansas/Iowa St; Cowboys went 20-12 against the hardest schedule in country, winning five Big X road games- they lost by 1 at Maryland, their only Big 14 opponent. Michigan is in NCAA’s for 6th time in last seven years; they’re 10-2 in last 12 games, winning four games in Big 14 tourney last week after the team plane slid off the runway while trying to leave Michigan Wednesday. Wolverines are #62 experience team led by senior PG Walton. Last eight years, underdogs are 20-11-1 vs spread in 7-10 games.
Baylor lost in first round last two years, as a 3-seed and 5-seed; that doesn’t happen much. Bears went 5-6 in last 11 games after a 20-1 start that had them #1 in country; 8 of their 11 non-league wins were by 15+ points. New Mexico State is in NCAA’s for 5th time in last six years; they went 1-3 vs spread in previous four visits, losing by 13-20-4-19 points. Aggies won their last five games overall; they beat Bakersfield in WAC final, after Roadrunners won in four OT’s the night before, so they got little fortunate there. Aggies are #147 experience team, Baylor #109.
Seton Hall won five of its last six games, Arkansas eight of its last ten; good 8-9 game here. Seton Hall starts three juniors and senior who won Big East tourney LY, then lost to Gonzaga by 16 in first round- it was their first NCAA’s since ’06. Pirates lost 81-76 to Florida, its only SEC opponent this season. In first three years of refigured Big East, league is 9-6 vs spread in first round games. Arkansas is 11-1 outside SEC, losing at Minnesota by 14; Razorbacks are #18 experience team. Last eight years, underdogs are 20-10 vs spread in 8-9 games.
Oregon won eight of last nine games but lost best shot blocker Boucher for season with injury; Ducks lost Pac-12 final by 3 to Arizona- they’re 13-0 vs teams ranked outside the top 100, with seven wins by 17+ points. Oregon played 7 guys in Pac-12 final, with four starters playing 33+ minutes. Iona won Alaskan Shootout in November; they’re 7-4 outside MAAC, losing by 21 at Florida State. Gaels make 39.7% on arc (#16); they won true road game in OT in MAAC final to get to this point. Last four years, underdogs are 10-6 vs spread in 3-14 games.
Jacksonville State is in NCAA’s for first time; JSU coach Harper was in twice while at Western Kentucky, losing in this round by 15-7 points to Kentucky/Kansas. Gamecocks are 0-2 vs top 50 teams this season, losing to TCU by 19, Maryland by 26. Louisville won its last four first round games (1-2-1 vs spread), winning by 7-31-7-2 points. This is only 3rd time in last 30 years Cards are #1 or #2 seed- they won 1st round games by 20-31 those years. Over last 8 years, OVC teams are 6-1-1 vs spread in this round. Since ’08, #2 seeds favored by 20+ points are 1-3 vs spread.
North Carolina was “only” 8-4 in its last 12 games, losing by 15 at Miami, 20 at Virginia; UNC is 3-4 in its last seven games away from Chapel Hill- they won their last 14 first round games. Last six times they were a 1-seed, Tar Heels are 3-2-1 vs spread in first round. Texas Southern lost at Arizona by 22, Louisville by 31, Cincinnati by 38, Baylor by 26 as they played guarantee games in December to cover their budget. Tigers won at Rice/LaSalle; their coach is Mike Davis, who used to coach at Indiana. Since 2004, SWAC teams are 1-6 vs spread in this round.
Rhode Island is in NCAA’s for first time since ’99 (lost to Charlotte in OT); Rams won their last eight games, are strong defensive team that holds foes to 29.2% on arc, #2 in country. Creighton was 18-1 when PG Watson got hurt; they’re 7-8 since then. Bluejays made 45%+ on arc in four of those seven wins. Creighton is 12-0 outside Big East, but that was with Watson in lineup. URI beat Cincinnati on a neutral court, lost by 3 at Providence in two of its pre-conference games. Last eight years, underdogs are 17-14-1 vs spread in 6-11 games, 5-3 last two years.
Night games
Wichita State beat Sean Miller’s Arizona team in LY’s tourney; they draw Sean’s brother Archie here. Shockers are 10-3 outside MVC, 3-4 vs top 60 teams this season- they’re #262 experience team. Wichita’s bench plays 4th-most minutes in country. Dayton had won nine games in row before losing to GW/Davidson in last two; Flyers are #34 experience team, starting four seniors- they shot 40%+ from arc in each of last eight games. Dayton is 2-1 in this round under Miller, losing 70-51 to Syracuse LY. Last four years, MVC teams are 6-1 vs spread in this round.
Kansas State gets extra day of rest, with this game Friday instead of Thursday after Tuesday tilt in Dayton. Wildcats were 27-36 on foul line in Dayton foulfest Tuesday; they’ve won four of last five games, are 12-1 outside Big X. Cincinnati is 7-3 in its last ten games after starting season 22-2; Bearcats won by point in OT at Iowa State in December, a team that swept Kansas State this year, by 5-8 points. Cincy is 1-3 in last four first-round games, with four games decided by total of 11 points. Last 7 years, dogs are 15-12-1 vs spread in 6-11 games.
South Carolina lost six of last nine games (went 4-6 in last 10 LY) but made tourney due to 13-0 pre-conference schedule with wins over Clemson/Memphis. Carolina won by 15-14 vs couple of lesser Big East teams (DePaul/St John’s). Marquette is best 3-point shooting team in tourney (43%); Eagles beat Vandy by 24, Georgia by 10 in two games vs SEC opponents. Carolina is #5 in country at defending 3’s. Crowd in Greenville figures to support home-state Gamecocks, but Duke fans will root for Wojo’s team. Last six years, dogs are 14-9-1 vs spread in 7-10 games.
Duke is 1-4 vs spread in its last five 1st-round games, losing SU as a 2-seed/3-seed to Lehigh, Mercer; Blue Devils won ACC tourney LW, are 12-3 in last 15 games- they’re #266 in experience, starting two frosh and a soph (all very talented). Troy finished T6 in Sun Belt (15th-rated league); Trojans won 10 of last 12 games- they went 6-6 vs #335 pre-conference schedule- they lost by 5 at USC. Last ten years, 2-seeds are 22-18 vs spread in this round (7-5 last three years). Since ’07, Sun Belt teams are 7-3 against the spread in this round.
PG Lonzo Ball hurt his left thumb in UCLA’s last game; he is their engine, so if he isn’t 100%, Bruins won’t play well, but we won’t be able to tell until game starts. UCLA won 10 of last 11 games; they beat W. Michigan of MAC by 14 in December. Bruins won seven of last eight first round games; they were underdog in 3 of last 4. Kent State is in NCAA’s for first time since ’08; Golden Flashes won nine of last ten games; they start a frosh, two sophs- they lost at Oregon St by 19, the worst team in Pac-12. Since ’03, MAC teams are 8-6 vs spread in this round, 1-3 last four years.
Kentucky won its last 11 games; they’re 10-3 outside SEC, beating Cleveland St of Horizon by 31 in November. Wildcats won last six first round games (3-3 vs spread); they’re #341 experience team, better not look ahead to Wichita/Dayton winner, because Northern Kentucky has to excited as hell to be here, for first time. Norse won six in row, 10 of last 11 games; they lost by 31 at West Va, but game was only 36-29 at the half. Last five years, Horizon teams are 1-4 vs spread in this round. Last ten years, 2-seeds are 22-18 vs spread in this round (7-5 last three years).
Michigan State/Miami both lost three of last four games; Spartans are 8-2 in last ten first round game- they lost as a 2-seed LY, as an 18-point favorite. Miami won its last five first round games but was higher seed in all five games. ‘canes are #264 experience team that plays #338 tempo- their bench plays #321 minutes. MSU’s bench plays most minutes in country- they start three freshmen, which is why they aren’t as consistent (8-9 in last 17 games) as most Izzo teams. MSU plays #242 tempo. Last eight years, underdogs are 20-10 vs spread in 8-9 games.
