Cnotes 2015 College Football All You Need To Know- Trends, Picks, News Etc.

[CNOTES]

NCAAF


Short Sheet


Week 1




Thursday, September 3


South Carolina vs North Carolina, 6:00 PM EST
S. Carolina: 7-0 UNDER in road games when playing on a Thursday
North Carolina: 1-9 ATS in the first half of the season


Florida International at UCF, 6:00 EST
FLA International: 1-9 ATS when they gain less than 250 total yards
UCF: 9-0 ATS when they allow less than 250 total yards


Oklahoma St. at Central Michigan, 7:00 EST
Oklahoma St: 70-19 OVER when they allow 28 or more points
Central Michigan: 18-34 ATS when they commit 2 turnovers


Michigan at Utah, 8:30 EST
Michigan: 21-8 OVER when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt
Utah: 3-0 ATS versus MICHIGAN since 1992


TCU at Minnesota, 9:00 EST
TCU: 11-2 ATS when they score 28 or more points
Minnesota: 4-15 ATS when they're outgained by opponents by 1.5 to 2 yards/play


Duke at Tulane, 9:30 EST
Duke: 20-7 ATS in all games
Tulane: 1-9 ATS against ACC opponents


Ohio U. at Idaho, 9:00 EST
Ohio U: 11-1 UNDER in the first half of the season
Idaho: 24-48 ATS in home games


UTSA at Arizona, 10:00 EST
UTSA: 17-6 UNDER in games played on turf
Arizona: 49-82 ATS as a favorite


Colorado at Hawaii, 11:59 EST
Colorado: 54-79 ATS in the first half of the season
Hawaii: 19-8 ATS in the first two weeks of the season


Western Kentucky at Vanderbilt, 8:00 EST
W. Kentucky: 6-0 OVER in the first month of the season
Vanderbilt: 28-14 UNDER in September games




Friday, September 4


Baylor at SMU, 7:00 EST
Baylor: 6-0 ATS in the first month of the season
SMU: 0-8 ATS in non-conference games


Charlotte at Georgia ST, 3:30 EST
Charlotte: N/A
Georgia ST: 6-0 OVER in home games in the first half of the season


Michigan ST at Western Kentucky, 7:00 EST
Michigan ST: 18-8 ATS in all games
Western Kentucky: 6-17 ATS as a home underdog


Kent State at Illinois, 9:00 EST
Kent State: 3-0 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points last 3 seasons
Illinois: 2-7 ATS vs Mac opponents


Washington at Boise ST, 10:15 EST
Washington: 9-2 UNDER in games played on turf
Boise ST: 99-67 ATS as a favorite




Saturday September 5


Old Dominion at Eastern Michigan, 3:00 EST
Old Dominion: 8-1 OVER in road games
E. Michigan: 13-26 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points


New Mexico ST at Florida, 7:30 EST
New Mexico ST: 82-111 ATS in all lined games
Florida: 7-3 OVER as a home favorite


Penn State at Temple, 3:30 EST
Penn ST: 0-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
Temple: 9-1 ATS when the total is 42 or less


Florida Atlantic at Tulsa, 3:30 EST
Florida Atlantic: 11-3 ATS as an underdog
Tulsa: 0-8 ATS in non-conference games


Virginia at UCLA, 3:30 EST
Virginia: 2-5 when the total is between 49.5 and 56
UCLA: 50-31 ATS in September games


Stanford at Northwestern, 12:00 EST
Stanford: 3-1 as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points
Northwestern: 3-11 ATS in home lined games


Louisville vs Auburn, 3:30 EST
Louisville: 17-7 UNDER in all games
Auburn: 10-2 UNDER against ACC opponents


Arizona ST vs Texas A&M, 7:00 EST
Arizona ST: 134-128 ATS in all lined games
Texas A&M: 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) in road games in the first half of the season


BYU at Nebraska, 3:30 EST
BYU: 8-19 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 63
Nebraska: 9-2 OVER in all games over


Troy at NC State, 6:00 EST
Troy: 11-13 ATS in all lined games
NC State: 45-26 UNDER as a favorite


UNLV at Northern Illinois, 7:30 EST
UNLV: 12-25 ATS in road games in non-conference games
Northern Illinois: 78-55 UNDER in all lined games


Akron at Oklahoma, 7:00 EST
Akron: 6-0 UNDER as a road underdog
Oklahoma: 12-10 ATS as a favorite of 31 or more points


Bowling Green vs Tennessee, 4:00 EST
Bowling Green: 18-8 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points
Tennessee: 29-39 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points


LA Monroe at Georgia, 12:00 EST
LA Monroe: 12-27 ATS as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points
Georgia: 9-1 OVER as a favorite of 31 or more points


LA Lafayette at Kentucky, 7:00 EST
LA Lafayette: 35-18 OVER (+15.2 Units) in the first half of the season
Kentucky: 5-1 OVER as a home favorite


Utep at Arkansas, 3:30 EST
UTEP: 4-13 ATS as an underdog
Arkansas: 9-2 ATS when playing on a Saturday


Georgia Southern at West Virginia, 7:30 EST
Georgia Southern: 6-1 ATS as a road underdog
West Virginia: 1-5 ATS as a road favorite


Texas at Notre Dame, 7:30 EST
Texas: 10-2 UNDER as an underdog
Notre Dame: 46-68 ATS as a home favorite


Texas ST vs Florida State, 8:00 EST
Texas ST: 6-0 ATS in road lined games
Florida State: 3-11 ATS in all lined games


Wisconsin vs Alabama, 8:00 EST
Wisconsin: 75-57 ATS in the first half of the season
Alabama: 22-26 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56


Mississippi ST at Southern Miss
Mississippi ST: 13-8 ATS in games played on turf
Southern Miss: 4-13 ATS in home games in games played on turf


Arkansas ST at USC, 11:00 EST
Arkansas ST: 90-79 ATS when playing on a Saturday
USC: 61-69 ATS in the first half of the season




Sunday September 6


Purdue at Marshall, 3:00 EST
Purdue: 21-29 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
Marshall: 5-1 OVER when the total is between 56.5 and 63




Monday September 7


Ohio State at Virginia Tech, 8:00 EST
Ohio State: 12-3 OVER in all lined games
Virginia Tech: 10-2 ATS as a home underdog

 

[CNOTES]

NCAA FB


Team Open Line Movements Current Moneyline Halftime Scores


6:00 PM EDT


133 SOUTH CAROLINA -1 -2.5 -05 / -1 / -1 -05 -1 -119
134 NORTH CAROLINA 63.5 63.5 / 63 / 62.5u13 62 -101

SCA-QB-Connor Mitch-Probable | TV: ESPN, DTV: 206 | PARTLY CLOUDY, NORTH WIND 2-7. GAME TEMP 84, RH 54% HEAT INDEX 87


6:00 PM EDT


135 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 47 46 / 44.5 / 44 44.5 +330
136 CENTRAL FLORIDA -16.5 -12 / -12.5 / -11 -11 -05 -410

TV: CBSC, DTV: 221 | PARTLY CLOUDY, 40% CHANCE SHOWER/STORMS. NORTHWEST WIND 5-10. GAME TEMP 85, RH 67% HEAT INDEX 92


7:00 PM EDT


137 OKLAHOMA STATE -19 -22.5 / -21 / -21 -11 -21 -1200
138 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 56 59 / 58 / 58.5 58 +800

TV: ESPNU, DTV: 208 | PARTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE SHOWER/STORMS EARLY. SOUTHEAST WIND 2-7. GAME TEMP 73, RH 81% HEAT INDEX 77


8:30 PM EDT


139 MICHIGAN 46.5 46.5 / 46 / 45.5 46 +185
140 UTAH -4.5 -5.5 -15 / -6 / -6 -05 -5 -215


TV: FS-1, DTV: 219 | PARTLY CLOUDY, SOUTH WIND 15-25, GUSTY. GAME TEMP 87, RH 17% WIND CHILL 0


9:00 PM EDT


141 TCU -14 -16.5 / -16.5 -05 / -16.5 -16.5 -05 -825
142 MINNESOTA 58.5 58u14 / 57.5 / 58 57 +600

TCU-WR-Josh Doctson-Probable | TV: ESPN, DTV: 206 | MOSTLY FAIR, EAST WIND 5-10. GAME TEMP 80, RH 69% HEAT INDEX 84


9:30 PM EDT


143 DUKE -11 -7.5 +03 / -7 -05 / -6.5 -27 -7 -290
144 TULANE 48 49.5 / 50 / 51 51.5 +230

TV: CBSC, DTV: 221 | Dome


9:00 PM EDT


145 OHIO -10 -7 / -7 -15 / -7 -7 -05 -280
146 IDAHO 54.5 59 / 58 / 58.5 59 +230

Time-change to 09:00pm EDT | OHI-QB-Derrius Vick-Probable | Dome


10:00 PM EDT


147 TEX SAN ANTONIO 54 59.5 / 60 / 60.5 60
148 ARIZONA -32 -31.5 / -32 / -31.5 -07 -31.5 -05

TV: Pac-12 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE SHOWER/STORMS. SOUTH WIND 7-12. GAME TEMP 82, RH 52% HEAT INDEX 84


1:00 AM EDT


149 COLORADO -8 -8 / -7 -15 / -7.5 -7.5 -05 -300
150 HAWAII 57.5 59.5 / 60 / 61 61.5 +240


8:00 PM EDT


211 WESTERN KENTUCKY 66.5 -3 -05 / -3 EVEN / -3 +05 -2.5 -140
212 VANDERBILT -2.5 62.5 / 62 / 62u11 62 +120

TV: SEC, DTV: 611 | PARTLY CLOUDY, NORTH WIND 4-9. GAME TEMP 87, RH 49% HEAT INDEX 90


7:00 PM EDT


301 ELON
302 WAKE FOREST -27 -27

TV: ESPN3.com | PARTLY CLOUDY, NORTH WIND 3-8. GAME TEMP 82, RH 56% HEAT INDEX 84


7:00 PM EDT


303 VMI
304 BALL STATE -30 -30 / -30 -27 / -31 -18 -33

BLS-WR-Jordan Williams-Probable | BLS-QB-Ozzie Mann-OUT | TV: ESPN3.com | PARTLY CLOUDY, WEST WIND 3-8. GAME TEMP 80, RH 66% HEAT INDEX 83


7:00 PM EDT


305 STONY BROOK
306 TOLEDO -23 -24 / -23.5 / -25.5 -26

TOL-RB-Kareem Hunt-OUT | TOL-QB-Phillip Ely-probable | TV: ESPN3.com | MOSTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE SHOWER/STORMS. WEST WIND 4-9. GAME TEMP 80, RH 69% HEAT INDEX 84


7:30 PM EDT


307 ALCORN ST
308 GEORGIA TECH -40 -40 / -40 -21 / -41 -21 -41

TV: ESPN3.com | PARTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE SHOWER/STORMS. NORTHWEST WIND 3-8. GAME TEMP 83, RH 64% HEAT INDEX 88


7:30 PM EDT


309 VILLANOVA -6 -7 -05 / -8 / -8 +02 -6.5
310 CONNECTICUT

CON-QB-Bryant Shirreffs-Probable | TV: ESPN3.com | PARTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE SHOWER/STORMS. NORTH WIND 3-8. GAME TEMP 79, RH 66% HEAT INDEX 82


9:00 PM EDT


311 SOUTHERN UTAH
312 UTAH STATE -30 -30 / -31 -32

PARTLY CLOUDY, SOUTH WIND 12-17. GAME TEMP 85, RH 18% WIND CHILL 0


10:00 PM EDT


313 UC DAVIS
314 NEVADA -22.5 -22.5 / -23 -24 -15

PARTLY CLOUDY, WEST WIND 15-25, GUSTY. GAME TEMP 75, RH 19% WIND CHILL 0


10:00 PM EDT


315 NEW HAMPSHIRE
316 SAN JOSE STATE -2 -2.5 / -4 / -5 -5.5 -15

MOSTLY FAIR, WEST WIND 12-17. GAME TEMP 68, RH 56%


10:00 PM EDT


317 ABILENE CHRISTIAN
318 FRESNO STATE -19.5 -19.5 -21

FRS-QB-Zach Greenlee-Probable | FAIR, NORTHWEST WIND 8-13. GAME TEMP 81, RH 31% HEAT INDEX 80

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF Consensus Picks


SIDES (ATS)


Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds


10:00 PM Abilene Christian +21 49 15.86% Fresno State -21 260 84.14% View View


7:00 PM Stony Brook +26 250 22.77% Toledo -26 848 77.23% View View


10:00 PM UC - Davis +24 79 27.72% Nevada -24 206 72.28% View View


7:00 PM Virginia Military +33.5 88 28.39% Ball State -33.5 222 71.61% View View


10:00 PM New Hampshire +5 90 29.90% San Jose State -5 211 70.10% View View


9:00 PM Southern Utah +32 86 31.05% Utah State -32 191 68.95% View View


7:30 PM Alcorn State +41 107 32.04% Georgia Tech -41 227 67.96% View View


10:00 PM Texas-San Antonio +31 646 34.04% Arizona -31 1252 65.96% View View


7:30 PM Villanova -8 124 35.94% Connecticut +8 221 64.06% View View


6:00 PM North Carolina +1 854 36.16% South Carolina -1 1508 63.84% View View


6:00 PM Florida International +11 716 36.31% Central Florida -11 1256 63.69% View View


7:00 PM Elon University +27 136 40.84% Wake Forest -27 197 59.16% View View


11:59 PM Colorado -7.5 871 44.67% Hawaii +7.5 1079 55.33% View View


8:00 PM Western Kentucky -2.5 999 48.31% Vanderbilt +2.5 1069 51.69% View View


8:30 PM Michigan +5 1142 50.51% Utah -5 1119 49.49% View View


7:00 PM Oklahoma State -21 1157 57.85% Central Michigan +21 843 42.15% View View


9:00 PM Texas Christian -16.5 1273 58.37% Minnesota +16.5 908 41.63% View View


9:00 PM Ohio -7 1147 62.92% Idaho +7 676 37.08% View View


9:30 PM Duke -7 1333 64.99% Tulane +7 718 35.01% View View






TOTALS (OVER/UNDER)


Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds


7:30 PM Villanova 51.5 68 31.92% Connecticut 51.5 145 68.08% View View


6:00 PM North Carolina 62 668 41.59% South Carolina 62 938 58.41% View View


8:00 PM Western Kentucky 62 658 45.41% Vanderbilt 62 791 54.59% View View


8:30 PM Michigan 45.5 711 46.50% Utah 45.5 818 53.50% View View


9:00 PM Ohio 59 674 51.45% Idaho 59 636 48.55% View View


10:00 PM New Hampshire 52.5 102 53.68% San Jose State 52.5 88 46.32% View View


6:00 PM Florida International 44.5 754 54.09% Central Florida 44.5 640 45.91% View View


9:30 PM Duke 51.5 770 56.25% Tulane 51.5 599 43.75% View View


10:00 PM Abilene Christian 58 111 57.22% Fresno State 58 83 42.78% View View


7:00 PM Elon University 42 135 57.45% Wake Forest 42 100 42.55% View View


11:59 PM Colorado 61 806 59.13% Hawaii 61 557 40.87% View View


7:00 PM Virginia Military 64.5 134 59.82% Ball State 64.5 90 40.18% View View


7:30 PM Alcorn State 65 134 60.91% Georgia Tech 65 86 39.09% View View


9:00 PM Texas Christian 56.5 931 63.59% Minnesota 56.5 533 36.41% View View


10:00 PM UC - Davis 59 122 63.87% Nevada 59 69 36.13% View View


10:00 PM Texas-San Antonio 60 896 64.05% Arizona 60 503 35.95% View View


9:00 PM Southern Utah 47 132 67.01% Utah State 47 65 32.99% View View


7:00 PM Stony Brook 51 148 69.81% Toledo 51 64 30.19% View View


7:00 PM Oklahoma State 58.5 1098 71.95% Central Michigan 58.5 428 28.05% View

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3


Game Score Status Pick Amount


North Carolina - 6:00 PM ET North Carolina +2 500 *****
South Carolina -

Florida International - 6:00 PM ET Central Florida -13 500
Central Florida -

Stony Brook - 7:00 PM ET Toledo -26.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Toledo -

Oklahoma State - 7:00 PM ET Central Michigan +23.5 500
Central Michigan -

Western Kentucky - 8:00 PM ET Western Kentucky -2 500 *****
Vanderbilt -

Michigan - 8:30 PM ET Utah -5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Utah -

Ohio - 9:00 PM ET Ohio -7 500
Idaho -

Texas Christian - 9:00 PM ET Texas Christian -17 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Minnesota -

Duke - 9:30 PM ET Duke -7 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Tulane -

Texas-San Antonio - 10:00 PM ET Arizona -31 500 BLOW OUT
Arizona -

Colorado - 11:59 PM ET Hawaii +7.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Hawaii -

 

[CNOTES]

Pac-12 Report - Week 1


September 3, 2015


2015 PAC-12 STANDINGS


Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under


Arizona 10-4 7-2 5-9 5-9


Arizona State 10-3 6-3 6-7 7-6


California 5-7 3-6 7-5 7-5


Colorado 2-10 0-9 6-6 7-5


Oregon 13-2 8-1 10-5 7-7-1


Oregon State 5-7 2-7 3-9 5-6-1


Southern California 9-4 6-3 7-6 6-7


Stanford 8-5 5-4 7-6 3-9


UCLA 10-3 6-3 5-8 5-7-1


Utah 9-4 5-4 9-4 4-8-1


Washington 8-6 4-5 7-7 4-10


Washington State 3-9 2-7 4-8 6-6




Washington at Boise State (Friday - ESPN, 10:15 p.m.)
Washington head coach Chris Petersen returns to where he made a name for himself - the Smurf Turf of Boise. It won't be easy for the Huskies, who are a 12-point 'dog. Boise State has lost outright just four times in the past 96 games, a fact Petersen knows all too well. Washington has a mish-mash offense with QBs Jake Browning, Jeff Lundquist and K.J. Carta-Samuels vying for time under center. WR Jaydon Mickens and RB Lavon Coleman can make things easier for the quarterbacks if they stay healthy. Boise State hasn't lost at home in a non-conference game since 2001, a 41-20 setback to Washington State. QB Ryan Finley isn't about to let that streak end. However, the Broncos have a big piece to replace in RB Jay Ajayi. Three tailbacks look to fill the big shoes. Washington thrashed Boise 38-6 in the last meeting Aug. 31, 2013 in Seattle, but these squads are much different now. The Broncos will win, but do they have enough to cover a big number with new pieces against a quality defense?


Stanford at Northwestern (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Cardinal head for suburban Chicago looking to start out on a good note. Set those alarm clocks Stanford fans, as it's a 10 a.m. local time TV kickoff for you! The alarm clock hasn't been going off for the Wildcats at home in recent years, at least against the number and in non-conference games. Northwestern is 2-11 ATS in the past 13 home games, and 1-5 ATS in their past six non-conference tilts. Stanford is just 2-5 ATS in their past seven road games, but 14-6 ATS in their past 20 non-conference games. Still, senior QB Chris Hogan has 24 wins, second-most among all active players, and that will be huge against an inexperienced Northwestern offense led by QB Clayton Thorson. The last time these teams met resulted in a 41-41 tie in Evanston back in 1994. If Stanford does win, it will be a rare loss in an opener for Northwestern. The 'Cats are 8-1 in season openers under the tutelage of head coach Pat Fitzgerald.


Virginia at UCLA (FOX, 3:30 p.m. ET)
UVA heads out for the coast looking to take down UCLA and repay them for a home loss at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville last fall. This Bruins team has a much different makeup, including under center, where true freshman Josh Rosen starts at quarterback, replacing the departed Brett Hundley. Virginia also lost its top two rushers, but top-flight recruit Taquan Mizzell takes over and will get first crack. Dependable QB Matt Johns is back and looking to get the Cavaliers over the hump. He performed well in a 28-20 loss to the Bruins Aug. 30, 2014. UVA is 4-0 ATS in their past four non-conference games, and the over is 6-1 in their past seven against non-conference foes. The under went 4-1-1 in six home games for UCLA last season.


Arizona State at Texas A&M (in Houston) (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Arizona State has lofty expectations this season, and if they want to fulfill those expectations they need to win as short 'dogs in a neutral-site game in Houston against Kevin Sumlin's bunch. QB Mike Bercovici takes over full-time duties under center after shining as an understudy and injury replacement last season. He'll face a defense which ranked 102nd in the country, so the Sun Devils could get off to a quick start if things haven't improved for A&M on that side of the ball. QB Kyle Allen keeps his starting gig, but will have QB Kyler Murray breathing down his neck. It's a nice problem to have for the Aggies. WRs Josh Reynolds and Ricky Seals-Jones give the offense some big playmakers in a game which could be a shootout. Vegas seems to believe so with a total hovering around 70.


Arkansas State at Southern California (Pac-12 Network, 11:00 p.m. ET)
USC opens with a creampuff game against Ark State, and the Trojans are a four-touchdown favorite. In the past few seasons they're just 4-9 ATS in their past 13 non-conference games, but they look to change that. The Red Wolves haven't been very good in early-season games, going 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight September tilts, and they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five road outings. A lot is expected of the 10th-ranked Trojans, so they'll look to fire out of the box early. RBs Justin Davis and Tre Madden, as well as WR JuJu Smith-Schuster give the offense an embarrassment of riches. If the Trojans are to cover they'll need to shut down QB Fredi Knighten who is a threat not only to pass, but also do it with his feet, too. RB Michael Gordon is an underrated back with a 1,000-yard season and 13 touchdowns in 2014, too. However, the defense allowed 27.8 points per game and that doesn't bode well against a USC quick-strike offense which could be covering the spread by halftime.


Other ACC teams in action
Weber State at Oregon State (Pac-12 Network, 8:00 p.m.)
Portland State at Washington State (Pac-12 Network, 2:00 p.m.)
Grambling State at California (Pac-12 Network, 5:00 p.m.)
Eastern Washington at Oregon (Pac-12 Network, 8:00 p.m.)

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's Tip Sheet


September 1, 2015




**Michigan State at Western Michigan**


-- Michigan State finished 2014 with an 11-2 straight-up record and a 9-4 against-the-spread mark. Since 2011, Mark Dantonio's team has hooked up its gambling supporters at a 34-20 ATS clip. The Spartans capped last year with a 42-41 comeback win over Baylor at the Cotton Bowl. They won outright as 2.5-point underdogs after rallying from a 41-21 deficit.


-- Michigan State returns seven starters on offense and six on defense. The latter unit lost a key starter to a season-ending injury a few weeks ago when Ed Davis went down. He had 58 tackles and seven sacks last season.


-- Dantonio lost workhorse running back Jeremy Langford and his top two wide receivers, but the offense still has its leader in QB Connor Cook. The senior signal caller threw for 3,214 yards with a 24/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2014. Cook has a 47/15 TD-INT ratio for his career. Langford is gone after rushing for 1,522 yards and 22 TDs. Also, Cook's favorite target Tony Lippett has departed following a season in which he hauled in 65 receptions for 1,198 yards and 11 TDs.


-- Michigan State owns an incredible 17-4-1 spread record in 22 games as a road favorite on Dantonio's watch.


-- Western Michigan improved from 1-11 in P.J. Fleck's first season ('13) to go 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS last year. The Broncos bring back nine starters on offense and seven on defense. They saw their six-game winning streak snapped in the regular-season finale, a 31-21 home loss to No. Illinois, and then dropped a 38-24 decision to Air Force as two-point 'chalk' at the Idaho Potato Bowl.


-- Western Michigan returns nearly all of its skill players, including true sophomore RB Jarvion Franklin, who came out of nowhere to rush for 1,551 yards and 24 TDs while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. He also had 14 catches for 163 yards and one TD. Franklin garnered MAC Offensive Player of the Year honors, was on the first-team All-MAC squad and was also the MAC Freshman of the Year.


-- As a third-year sophomore in 2014, Zach Terrell completed 67.9 percent of his passes for 3,443 yards with a 26/10 TD-INT ratio. Terrell has two of the MAC's top wideouts in juniors Corey Davis and Daniel Braverman. Davis had 78 receptions for 1,408 yards and 15 TDs last year, while Braverman finished the season with 86 catches for 997 yards and six TDs.


-- Western Michigan played a pair of Power Five opponents last year, losing 43-34 at Purdue as an 8.5-point underdog in the season opener. The Broncos also lost at Virginia Tech, but they took the cash in a 35-17 loss as 21-point 'dogs.


-- Western Michigan opened the season at Michigan State two seasons ago, losing 26-13 in East Lansing. However, Fleck's team covered the number as a 28-point underdog.


-- As of Tuesday, most books had Michigan State listed as an 18-point favorite with a total of 58. The Broncos were +650 on the money line (risk $100 to win $650).


-- Kickoff on Friday night is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.


**Baylor at Southern Methodist**


-- Baylor smashed SMU by a 45-7 count as a 34.5-point home favorite in last season's opener. The Bears defense limited the Mustangs to just 67 yards of total offense. Baylor has won 11 in a row over SMU and has taken the cash in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.


--Art Briles' squad returns nine starters on offense and nine starters on defense. Baylor finished last year with an 11-2 SU record and a 7-5-1 ATS ledger. The Bears 41-27 at West Va. and then lost to Michigan State in heartbreaking fashion in the postseason.


-- With Bryce Petty gone to the NFL, junior QB Seth Russell is poised to take over under center. The fourth-year junior had eight TD passes compared to only one interception last season. Russell will have weapons galore around him, including one of the nation's best set of wide receivers. Corey Coleman had 64 receptions for 1,119 yards and 11 TDs in 2014, while K.D. Cannon hauled in 58 catches for 1,030 yards and eight TDs. RB Shock Linwood also returns following a season in which he ran for 1,252 yards and 15 scores.


-- Baylor has posted a 5-7-1 spread record in 13 games as a road 'chalk' during Briles's tenure.


-- The Baylor defense will be led by senior DE Shawn Oakman, who had 51 tackles, 11 sacks and nine QB hurries in 2014. This unit allowed 25.5 points per game last year.


-- As of Tuesday, most spots had Baylor favored by 36 with a total of 74.5 points.


-- SMU was outscored by a combined score of 159-6 in three games against Power Five schools (at Baylor, vs. Texas A&M and vs. TCU) in 2014. The Mustangs saw June Jones resign after a 43-6 loss at North Texas in Week 2. They would lose their first 11 games before winning 27-20 at UConn as 14-point underdogs in the regular-season finale.


-- SMU went out and hired highly-regarded Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris as its next head coach. Morris, who spent 16 years as a high school coach in Texas before getting the Clemson gig, inherits a team which finished 1-11 SU and 4-8 ATS last season. The Mustangs bring back nine starters on offense and seven on defense.


-- Morris will give junior Matt Davis the starting nod at QB. Davis started the last five games last year, finishing the campaign with 855 passing yards and a 3/5 TD-INT ratio. Davis rushed for a team-best 613 yards and four TDs while averaging 5.7 YPC.


-- From 2009-2013, SMU compiled an 8-2 spread record in 10 games as a home underdog. However, the Mustangs limped to a 1-5 ATS mark in six such spots last season.


-- ESPN will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.


**Washington at Boise State**


-- Chris Petersen enjoyed a dynastic eight-year tenure at Boise State from 2006-2013, turning down a plethora of big-name jobs while compiling a 92-13 record with seven double-digit win seasons and five years with 12 wins or more. However, when the University of Washington came calling, Petersen finally decided to make the move to a Power Five school. Now he returns to the smurf turf to take on his former team Friday night at 10:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.


-- As of Tuesday, most books had Boise State installed as an 11.5-point home favorite with a total of 57. The Huskies were available on the money line for a +350 payout (risk $100 to win $350).


-- Boise State went 12-2 straight up and 8-6 against the spread in 2014. The Broncos bring back nine starters on offense and eight on defense. They have named true sophomore Ryan Finley as the starting quarterback. Finley served as the departed Grant Hedrick's back-up last year, completing 12-of-27 throws for 161 yards and two TDs with one interception.


-- BSU has to replace workhorse RB Jay Ajayi, who was drafted by the Miami Dolphins after rushing for 1,823 yards and 28 TDs last season.


-- Since 2006, the first year of Petersen's tenure, Boise State has won 55 of 57 home games with the two losses coming by three combined points. This is the first time since 2009 -- when the Broncos smashed Oregon and LeGarrette Blount to begin Chip Kelly's reign -- that they've played a season opener at home.


-- The BSU defense is led by LBs Tanner Vallejo and Kamalei Correa. Vallejo had a team-high 100 tackles in 2014, while Correa had 59 tackles and 12 sacks.


-- Washington finished a disappointing 8-6 SU in Petersen's first season, going 7-7 versus the number. The Huskies lost a 30-22 decision to Oklahoma State six-point 'chalk' at the Cactus Bowl. They return five starters on offense and four on defense.


-- Petersen told the media Monday that he's decided on a new starting QB but won't reveal the news before Friday's kick. The three candidates are junior Jeff Lindquist, redshirt freshman K.J. Carta-Samuels and true freshman Jake Browning. Lindquist started one game last season, finishing the year with only 10 completions in 30 attempts for 162 yards and one TD without an interception. Cyler Miles was the starter last year and had a 17/4 TD-INT ratio and four rushing scores in 2014. However, a lingering hip injury forced Miles into retirement over the summer.


-- Petersen had this say about the homefield advantage BSU will enjoy: “It’s a great place to play. Unbelievable home-field advantage. The size of the stadium has nothing to do with it. Those are very passionate fans and a really good place to play a college football game. Noise is a factor. Tough place to play.”


-- Washington returns its top four pass catchers and top two leading rushers, including Dwayne Washington, who had 697 rushing yards and nine TDs with a 5.3 YPC average. Senior WR Jaydon Mickens had 60 catches for 617 yards and four TDs last year.


-- BSU posted a 4-3 spread record as a home favorite last season, while UW went 2-1 ATS as a road underdog.

 

[CNOTES]

Top 25 Capsules


September 4, 2015


MINNEAPOLIS (AP) Trevone Boykin threw for 246 yards and a touchdown and ran for 92 yards and another score to help No. 2 TCU outlast Minnesota 23-17 on Thursday night.


Boykin started his Heisman push by completing 26 of 42 passes. But he also threw an interception and the Horned Frogs had a difficult time getting their frenetic offense rolling against Minnesota's determined defense. Their 23 points were their fewest scored since Nov. 9, 2013.


The Horned Frogs shared the Big 12 title last year, but were left out of the four-team playoff field. They've heard nothing but questions about the crushing disappointment for the last nine months, providing plenty of motivation to erase that memory with a national championship run this season.


Jaden Oberkrom made three field goals, including a 53-yarder, and Josh Doctson had eight catches for 74 yards and a touchdown for TCU.


Mitch Leidner threw for 197 yards for Minnesota. His touchdown pass to K.J. Maye with 1:32 left pulled the Golden Gophers within a touchdown, but TCU recovered the onside kick to hang on.


Maye had four catches for 73 yards and Rodney Smith rushed for 88 yards and a touchdown for the Golden Gophers. They haven't beaten a Top 10 team at home since 1977.


NO. 22 ARIZONA 42, UTSA 32


TUCSON, Ariz. (AP) - Anu Solomon threw four touchdown passes to help Arizona beat UTSA, but the Wildcats suffered a big blow when All-America linebacker Scooby Wright went out early with a left knee injury.


Wright, the junior who swept the major defensive player of the year awards last season, went down in the first quarter and spent the second half in street clothes, walking with a cane.


Arizona sputtered on offense most of the night and allowed UTSA, a team returning two offensive starters, to rack up 525 total yards.


Arizona scored two defensive touchdowns, but had numerous breakdowns, even before Wright went down.


UTSA's Blake Bogenschutz had 332 yards and two touchdowns on 25-of-43 passing after throwing an interception that Anthony Lopez returned 23 yards for a touchdown on the game's first pass.


Solomon threw for 229 yards on 22-of-26 passing, and Nick Wilson ran for 97 yards.


NO. 16 GEORGIA TECH 69, ALCORN STATE 6


ATLANTA (AP) - Freshman Marcus Marshall ran for 184 yards and two long touchdowns in his college debut, Patrick Skov scored three TDs in his first game at Georgia Tech.


Georgia Tech scored on its first seven possessions in the opener for both teams, barely breaking a sweat against the Football Championship Subdivision school from Mississippi.


The Yellow Jackets led 34-0 at the end of the first quarter, their most points in an opening quarter since at least 1950. The officials were already letting the clock run in the second quarter, looking to make things a little easier on the Braves. Georgia Tech led 48-0 at halftime and never let up.


Quarterback Justin Thomas played only the first quarter, running for one score and passing for another.

 

[CNOTES]

2 starters among 5 Huskers suspended for opener against BYU


September 3, 2015


LINCOLN, Neb. (AP) Starting linebacker Michael Rose-Ivey and co-No. 1 cornerback Jonathan Rose are among five Nebraska players suspended for Saturday's opener against BYU.


Coach Mike Riley also announced Thursday that tight end Cethan Carter, defensive end Joe Keels and offensive lineman Robby Painter are suspended. Those three are backups.


Riley had said three weeks ago that five players would be suspended for the first game because of violations of team rules. He said he would wait to identify them until the week of the game.


Riley said Luke Gifford will start in place of Rose-Ivey at middle linebacker and Josh Kalu will play the first defensive snap at right cornerback.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Notes - Week 1


September 4, 2015




Welcome back to another college football season!


The goal of this weekly piece is to inform and hopefully help you with your college football total selections throughout the year.


Keep in mind that it's become harder to win as the sportsbooks and players have all become sharper and the sharing of information has led to a "one source" pool that forces solid handicappers to become excellent market analyzers and originators in order to win.


Books constantly adjust, so bettors must too.


With that said, adjusting too quickly can be a very slippery slope. I spend a lot of hours preparing for the football season to begin, so I feel that my off-season numbers are well formed and educated. However, adjustments must always be made, especially in the totals arena, but in the first several weeks it will take a larger discrepancy for me to start altering my vision of a team, coach, or offensive unit.


Similar to last season’s Total Notes that I assisted with CD, I’m going to follow the same approach and dummy it down a bit for newbies to the college football total market.


A lot of novice bettors often get confused by line moves or what many in the industry call “steam” which isn’t always correct.


How should we react to big moves?


Personally, I think it depends on the type of line movement and the time of the year.


I'm much more leery of significant moves on totals early in the season for a variety of reasons. Early movements, early in the season are generally the work of syndicates and well prepared totals players.


These moves are generally sharp and not the work of the betting public, so taking notice of them or getting ahead of them is necessary to win.


I classify these early total movements into four categories.


1) Correct sharp movement


2) Incorrect sharp movement


3) Public movement

4) Market manipulation


As a generalization I respect line moves early in the season and will look to get ahead of them or follow.


Later in the year, we have more data to work with and the totals have much less variance, so I'm more apt to fade a total at its peak and gain the value in the extra numbers.


Chasing steam on totals can work but as the season progresses it loses some of its value. This past Thursday, some of the early moves came in but we also saw clear-cut losers too.


The only adjustment I liked was the Ohio-Idaho OVER, which went from 55 to 59 before closing 58 at most shops. The Bobcats captured a 45-28 win, and late bettors will tell you that they needed late scores to beat the closing number. If you got on board early, the “sweat game” wasn’t necessary.


Going forward, pick your spots!


Based on my breakdown above, I’ve categorized the below four games for Week 1 and added some insight to help you understand my approach.


1) Correct sharp movement - BYU/Nebraska UNDER


This number opened as high as 67 ½ offshore and 66 in Vegas. It’s down to 60. Make a note of the injuries and suspensions to both squads.


2) Incorrect sharp movement - Penn State/Temple OVER


Books sent out 38 ½ two weeks ago, which held steady until this Wednesday. The number is up to 44 and I’d be surprised to see the winner getting more than 21. For those bettors into historical numbers, the last seven matchups from 2007 haven’t seen a combined score of more than 43.


3) Public movement - Arizona State/Texas A&M OVER


Both schools would like to play fast and have the talent to light up the scoreboard. Nationally televised game should only make the number climb. As of Friday it’s at 70, up from 66.


4) Market manipulation - Old Dominion/Eastern Michigan UNDER


The total has been clipped from 66 to 63. ODU notched a 17-3 win in this game last season and the total (69) was never threatened. EMU’s defense (41 PPG) was embarrassing last year and ODU’s unit (38 PPG) wasn’t better. Expect this number to close by the opener come Saturday.


Aloha!

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's Tip Sheet


September 1, 2015




**Michigan State at Western Michigan**


-- Michigan State finished 2014 with an 11-2 straight-up record and a 9-4 against-the-spread mark. Since 2011, Mark Dantonio's team has hooked up its gambling supporters at a 34-20 ATS clip. The Spartans capped last year with a 42-41 comeback win over Baylor at the Cotton Bowl. They won outright as 2.5-point underdogs after rallying from a 41-21 deficit.


-- Michigan State returns seven starters on offense and six on defense. The latter unit lost a key starter to a season-ending injury a few weeks ago when Ed Davis went down. He had 58 tackles and seven sacks last season.


-- Dantonio lost workhorse running back Jeremy Langford and his top two wide receivers, but the offense still has its leader in QB Connor Cook. The senior signal caller threw for 3,214 yards with a 24/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2014. Cook has a 47/15 TD-INT ratio for his career. Langford is gone after rushing for 1,522 yards and 22 TDs. Also, Cook's favorite target Tony Lippett has departed following a season in which he hauled in 65 receptions for 1,198 yards and 11 TDs.


-- Michigan State owns an incredible 17-4-1 spread record in 22 games as a road favorite on Dantonio's watch.


-- Western Michigan improved from 1-11 in P.J. Fleck's first season ('13) to go 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS last year. The Broncos bring back nine starters on offense and seven on defense. They saw their six-game winning streak snapped in the regular-season finale, a 31-21 home loss to No. Illinois, and then dropped a 38-24 decision to Air Force as two-point 'chalk' at the Idaho Potato Bowl.


-- Western Michigan returns nearly all of its skill players, including true sophomore RB Jarvion Franklin, who came out of nowhere to rush for 1,551 yards and 24 TDs while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. He also had 14 catches for 163 yards and one TD. Franklin garnered MAC Offensive Player of the Year honors, was on the first-team All-MAC squad and was also the MAC Freshman of the Year.


-- As a third-year sophomore in 2014, Zach Terrell completed 67.9 percent of his passes for 3,443 yards with a 26/10 TD-INT ratio. Terrell has two of the MAC's top wideouts in juniors Corey Davis and Daniel Braverman. Davis had 78 receptions for 1,408 yards and 15 TDs last year, while Braverman finished the season with 86 catches for 997 yards and six TDs.


-- Western Michigan played a pair of Power Five opponents last year, losing 43-34 at Purdue as an 8.5-point underdog in the season opener. The Broncos also lost at Virginia Tech, but they took the cash in a 35-17 loss as 21-point 'dogs.


-- Western Michigan opened the season at Michigan State two seasons ago, losing 26-13 in East Lansing. However, Fleck's team covered the number as a 28-point underdog.


-- As of Tuesday, most books had Michigan State listed as an 18-point favorite with a total of 58. The Broncos were +650 on the money line (risk $100 to win $650).


-- Kickoff on Friday night is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.


**Baylor at Southern Methodist**


-- Baylor smashed SMU by a 45-7 count as a 34.5-point home favorite in last season's opener. The Bears defense limited the Mustangs to just 67 yards of total offense. Baylor has won 11 in a row over SMU and has taken the cash in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.


--Art Briles' squad returns nine starters on offense and nine starters on defense. Baylor finished last year with an 11-2 SU record and a 7-5-1 ATS ledger. The Bears 41-27 at West Va. and then lost to Michigan State in heartbreaking fashion in the postseason.


-- With Bryce Petty gone to the NFL, junior QB Seth Russell is poised to take over under center. The fourth-year junior had eight TD passes compared to only one interception last season. Russell will have weapons galore around him, including one of the nation's best set of wide receivers. Corey Coleman had 64 receptions for 1,119 yards and 11 TDs in 2014, while K.D. Cannon hauled in 58 catches for 1,030 yards and eight TDs. RB Shock Linwood also returns following a season in which he ran for 1,252 yards and 15 scores.


-- Baylor has posted a 5-7-1 spread record in 13 games as a road 'chalk' during Briles's tenure.


-- The Baylor defense will be led by senior DE Shawn Oakman, who had 51 tackles, 11 sacks and nine QB hurries in 2014. This unit allowed 25.5 points per game last year.


-- As of Tuesday, most spots had Baylor favored by 36 with a total of 74.5 points.


-- SMU was outscored by a combined score of 159-6 in three games against Power Five schools (at Baylor, vs. Texas A&M and vs. TCU) in 2014. The Mustangs saw June Jones resign after a 43-6 loss at North Texas in Week 2. They would lose their first 11 games before winning 27-20 at UConn as 14-point underdogs in the regular-season finale.


-- SMU went out and hired highly-regarded Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris as its next head coach. Morris, who spent 16 years as a high school coach in Texas before getting the Clemson gig, inherits a team which finished 1-11 SU and 4-8 ATS last season. The Mustangs bring back nine starters on offense and seven on defense.


-- Morris will give junior Matt Davis the starting nod at QB. Davis started the last five games last year, finishing the campaign with 855 passing yards and a 3/5 TD-INT ratio. Davis rushed for a team-best 613 yards and four TDs while averaging 5.7 YPC.


-- From 2009-2013, SMU compiled an 8-2 spread record in 10 games as a home underdog. However, the Mustangs limped to a 1-5 ATS mark in six such spots last season.


-- ESPN will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.


**Washington at Boise State**

-- Chris Petersen enjoyed a dynastic eight-year tenure at Boise State from 2006-2013, turning down a plethora of big-name jobs while compiling a 92-13 record with seven double-digit win seasons and five years with 12 wins or more. However, when the University of Washington came calling, Petersen finally decided to make the move to a Power Five school. Now he returns to the smurf turf to take on his former team Friday night at 10:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.


-- As of Tuesday, most books had Boise State installed as an 11.5-point home favorite with a total of 57. The Huskies were available on the money line for a +350 payout (risk $100 to win $350).


-- Boise State went 12-2 straight up and 8-6 against the spread in 2014. The Broncos bring back nine starters on offense and eight on defense. They have named true sophomore Ryan Finley as the starting quarterback. Finley served as the departed Grant Hedrick's back-up last year, completing 12-of-27 throws for 161 yards and two TDs with one interception.


-- BSU has to replace workhorse RB Jay Ajayi, who was drafted by the Miami Dolphins after rushing for 1,823 yards and 28 TDs last season.


-- Since 2006, the first year of Petersen's tenure, Boise State has won 55 of 57 home games with the two losses coming by three combined points. This is the first time since 2009 -- when the Broncos smashed Oregon and LeGarrette Blount to begin Chip Kelly's reign -- that they've played a season opener at home.


-- The BSU defense is led by LBs Tanner Vallejo and Kamalei Correa. Vallejo had a team-high 100 tackles in 2014, while Correa had 59 tackles and 12 sacks.


-- Washington finished a disappointing 8-6 SU in Petersen's first season, going 7-7 versus the number. The Huskies lost a 30-22 decision to Oklahoma State six-point 'chalk' at the Cactus Bowl. They return five starters on offense and four on defense.


-- Petersen told the media Monday that he's decided on a new starting QB but won't reveal the news before Friday's kick. The three candidates are junior Jeff Lindquist, redshirt freshman K.J. Carta-Samuels and true freshman Jake Browning. Lindquist started one game last season, finishing the year with only 10 completions in 30 attempts for 162 yards and one TD without an interception. Cyler Miles was the starter last year and had a 17/4 TD-INT ratio and four rushing scores in 2014. However, a lingering hip injury forced Miles into retirement over the summer.


-- Petersen had this say about the homefield advantage BSU will enjoy: “It’s a great place to play. Unbelievable home-field advantage. The size of the stadium has nothing to do with it. Those are very passionate fans and a really good place to play a college football game. Noise is a factor. Tough place to play.”


-- Washington returns its top four pass catchers and top two leading rushers, including Dwayne Washington, who had 697 rushing yards and nine TDs with a 5.3 YPC average. Senior WR Jaydon Mickens had 60 catches for 617 yards and four TDs last year.


-- BSU posted a 4-3 spread record as a home favorite last season, while UW went 2-1 ATS as a road underdog.

 

[CNOTES]

Wittek leads Hawaii over Colorado, 28-20


September 4, 2015


HONOLULU (AP) Max Wittek delivered in his debut for Hawaii.


The senior quarterback, who sat out last season because of NCAA regulations after transferring from USC, threw three touchdown passes in a 28-20 win over Colorado at Aloha Stadium in the season opener for both teams.


''These players worked so hard in fall camp,'' fourth-year Hawaii coach Norm Chow said. ''The coaches did a great job preparing the team on both offense and defense and it was really a combination of a lot of things that contributed to today. This was a very good football team we played and I'm very proud of our players and coaches.''


Wittek completed 19 of his 38 passes for 202 yards for the Rainbow Warriors (1-0). The 6-foot-4, 240-pound senior also overcame a pair of first-half interceptions.


''I just told him to stick with it when things weren't going well,'' Chow said of Wittek. ''You see he's got a terrific arm and I just told him to just take what they could give us. He wanted to make a big play, but it was his leadership and skills that kept us in it.''


Marcus Kemp caught six passes for 116 yards with a score to lead all receivers. Quinton Pedroza and Isaiah Bernard also hauled in touchdown passes.


Michael Adkins II rushed for a game-high 90 yards and two first-half touchdowns to lead the Buffaloes (0-1). Diego Gonzalez, who made a pair of field goals in the loss, accounted for the rest of the scoring.


Rigoberto Sanchez converted field goals of 27 and 34 yards for Hawaii.


Colorado went three-and-out on its opening drive, but Alex Kinney's punt was blocked by Hawaii's Keelan Ewaliko, who also recovered the ball at the Colorado 16-yard line.


Three plays later, Wittek hit Pedroza for an 11-yard touchdown pass. The same two hooked up on the two-point conversion to give the Rainbow Warriors an early 8-0 lead.


The Buffaloes got on the board at the 9:21 mark of the second quarter on a 5-yard run by Adkins. The play was set-up by an interception by defensive end Derek McCartney, who picked off Wittek near the line of scrimmage and returned it 33 yards to the Hawaii 17. Gonzalez tacked on the extra point to cut the Hawaii lead to 8-7.


Hawaii quickly answered when Wittek hit Kemp on a short completion along the left hash mark. Kemp broke a tackle near the Colorado 40 en route to the 79-yard touchdown play - the team's longest since 2011.


Colorado again pulled within a point at 15-14 on a 3-yard touchdown run by Adkins that capped a nine-play, 57-yard drive with 4:47 left in the half.


Later in the quarter, the Rainbow Warriors capitalized on a turnover when Sanchez kicked a 27-yard field goal on the final play of the half. The drive started at their own 42 after Lance Williams forced a fumble by Christian Powell, which was recovered by Marrell Jackson.


Hawaii held an 18-14 lead at the intermission.


Gonzalez's 40-yard field goal early in the third quarter cut the Hawaii lead to 18-17.


Wittek's third touchdown pass, a 1-yarder to Bernard, came late in the third quarter and Sanchez's 34-yard field goal early in the fourth stretched the Rainbow Warriors' lead back to 28-17.


Colorado again got within a score with 3:48 to play on another Gonzalez field goal and had a chance to tie it on its final possession. The team drove to the Hawaii 8 in the closing seconds, but failed to get off a final play.


Luke Shawley made a game-high 14 tackles and Nick Nelson added 11 stops for the Rainbow Warriors.


Colorado wide receiver Nelson Spruce, a First Team Preseason All-Pac-12 selection, finished with eight receptions for 69 yards. Quarterback Sefo Liufau threw for 158 yards on 23-of-40 passing and rushed for 81 yards on 18 carries. He was intercepted once.


Hawaii avenged a 21-12 double-overtime loss at Colorado last year and now leads the all-time series, which dates back to 1925, 3-2. All three wins have come in Honolulu.


The Buffaloes, who are now 77-44-5 all-time in season openers, have now lost their last nine games. Their last victory was against Hawaii on Sept. 20 of last year. They were picked to sixth (last) in the Preseason Pac-12 Media Poll.


The Rainbow Warriors, who were picked to finish fifth in the West Division in the Preseason Mountain West Media Poll, improved to 59-35-5 all-time in season openers. They have opened the season against a Pac-12 opponent the last six years and are now 30-58 all-time against current members of the Pac-12.


Colorado and Hawaii are the only two FBS teams that are playing 13 consecutive weeks over the 2015 season.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Short Sheet


Week 1




Friday, September 4


Baylor at SMU, 7:00 EST
Baylor: 6-0 ATS in the first month of the season
SMU: 0-8 ATS in non-conference games


Charlotte at Georgia ST, 3:30 EST
Charlotte: N/A
Georgia ST: 6-0 OVER in home games in the first half of the season


Michigan ST at Western Kentucky, 7:00 EST
Michigan ST: 18-8 ATS in all games
Western Kentucky: 6-17 ATS as a home underdog


Kent State at Illinois, 9:00 EST
Kent State: 3-0 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points last 3 seasons
Illinois: 2-7 ATS vs Mac opponents


Washington at Boise ST, 10:15 EST
Washington: 9-2 UNDER in games played on turf
Boise ST: 99-67 ATS as a favorite




Saturday September 5


Old Dominion at Eastern Michigan, 3:00 EST
Old Dominion: 8-1 OVER in road games
E. Michigan: 13-26 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points


New Mexico ST at Florida, 7:30 EST
New Mexico ST: 82-111 ATS in all lined games
Florida: 7-3 OVER as a home favorite


Penn State at Temple, 3:30 EST
Penn ST: 0-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
Temple: 9-1 ATS when the total is 42 or less


Florida Atlantic at Tulsa, 3:30 EST
Florida Atlantic: 11-3 ATS as an underdog
Tulsa: 0-8 ATS in non-conference games


Virginia at UCLA, 3:30 EST
Virginia: 2-5 when the total is between 49.5 and 56
UCLA: 50-31 ATS in September games


Stanford at Northwestern, 12:00 EST
Stanford: 3-1 as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points
Northwestern: 3-11 ATS in home lined games


Louisville vs Auburn, 3:30 EST
Louisville: 17-7 UNDER in all games
Auburn: 10-2 UNDER against ACC opponents


Arizona ST vs Texas A&M, 7:00 EST
Arizona ST: 134-128 ATS in all lined games
Texas A&M: 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) in road games in the first half of the season


BYU at Nebraska, 3:30 EST
BYU: 8-19 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 63
Nebraska: 9-2 OVER in all games over


Troy at NC State, 6:00 EST
Troy: 11-13 ATS in all lined games
NC State: 45-26 UNDER as a favorite


UNLV at Northern Illinois, 7:30 EST
UNLV: 12-25 ATS in road games in non-conference games
Northern Illinois: 78-55 UNDER in all lined games


Akron at Oklahoma, 7:00 EST
Akron: 6-0 UNDER as a road underdog
Oklahoma: 12-10 ATS as a favorite of 31 or more points


Bowling Green vs Tennessee, 4:00 EST
Bowling Green: 18-8 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points
Tennessee: 29-39 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points


LA Monroe at Georgia, 12:00 EST
LA Monroe: 12-27 ATS as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points
Georgia: 9-1 OVER as a favorite of 31 or more points


LA Lafayette at Kentucky, 7:00 EST
LA Lafayette: 35-18 OVER (+15.2 Units) in the first half of the season
Kentucky: 5-1 OVER as a home favorite


Utep at Arkansas, 3:30 EST
UTEP: 4-13 ATS as an underdog
Arkansas: 9-2 ATS when playing on a Saturday


Georgia Southern at West Virginia, 7:30 EST
Georgia Southern: 6-1 ATS as a road underdog
West Virginia: 1-5 ATS as a road favorite


Texas at Notre Dame, 7:30 EST
Texas: 10-2 UNDER as an underdog
Notre Dame: 46-68 ATS as a home favorite


Texas ST vs Florida State, 8:00 EST
Texas ST: 6-0 ATS in road lined games
Florida State: 3-11 ATS in all lined games


Wisconsin vs Alabama, 8:00 EST
Wisconsin: 75-57 ATS in the first half of the season
Alabama: 22-26 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56


Mississippi ST at Southern Miss
Mississippi ST: 13-8 ATS in games played on turf
Southern Miss: 4-13 ATS in home games in games played on turf


Arkansas ST at USC, 11:00 EST
Arkansas ST: 90-79 ATS when playing on a Saturday
USC: 61-69 ATS in the first half of the season




Sunday September 6


Purdue at Marshall, 3:00 EST
Purdue: 21-29 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
Marshall: 5-1 OVER when the total is between 56.5 and 63




Monday September 7


Ohio State at Virginia Tech, 8:00 EST
Ohio State: 12-3 OVER in all lined games
Virginia Tech: 10-2 ATS as a home underdog

 

[CNOTES]

Team Open Line Movements Current Moneyline Halftime Scores

7:00 PM EDT

151 BAYLOR -34 -36 / -35.5 / -36 -36 -15
152 SMU 73.5 72 / 71.5 / 71 70.5

TV: ESPN, DTV: 206 | PARTLY CLOUDY, SOUTHEAST WIND 6-11. GAME TEMP 93, RH 42% HEAT INDEX 98

3:30 PM EDT

153 CHARLOTTE 73 68.5 / 68 / 68o11 68o15 +250 31 2314:41 4
154 GEORGIA STATE -4.5 -7 / -7 -15 / -7 -05 -7 -310 -5.5 6

Time-change to 03:30pm EDT | TV: ESPNU, DTV: 208 | Dome

7:00 PM EDT

155 MICHIGAN STATE -18.5 -16 / -16.5 -05 / -17 -05 -16.5 -820
156 WESTERN MICHIGAN 60 56 / 55 / 55.5 56 +595

Time-change to 07:00pm EDT | TV: ESPNU, DTV: 208 | PARTLY CLOUDY, WEST WIND 3-8. GAME TEMP 77, RH 68% HEAT INDEX 80

9:00 PM EDT

157 KENT STATE 52 52 / 51 / 51.5 53.5 +410
158 ILLINOIS -15.5 -13.5 / -13.5 -05 / -13.5 -15 -13.5 -05 -530

ILL-WR-Mike Dudek-OUT | TV: BTN, DTV: 610 | PARTLY CLOUDY, 20% CHANCE SHOWER/STORMS. SOUTH WIND 3-8. GAME TEMP 80, RH 66% HEAT INDEX 83

10:15 PM EDT

159 WASHINGTON 57.5 56u11 / 55.5 / 56 55.5 +380
160 BOISE STATE -10.5 -11 -05 / -12 -18 / -12 -15 -12.5 -475

WAU-QB-Cyler Miles-OUT | TV: ESPN, DTV: 206 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE SHOWER/STORMS. NORTHWEST WIND 9-14. GAME TEMP 69, RH 34%

7:00 PM EDT

319 FORDHAM
320 ARMY -5.5 -13 -15 / -13.5 / -13.5 -09 -13.5

ARM-QB-Ahmad Bradshaw-Probable | TV: CBSC, DTV: 221 | PARTLY CLOUDY, EAST WIND 7-12. GAME TEMP 76, RH 64% HEAT INDEX 79

7:00 PM EDT

321 RHODE ISLAND
322 SYRACUSE -33.5 -33.5 -33.5 -05

TV: ESPN3.com | Dome

8:00 PM EDT

323 WEBER ST
324 OREGON STATE -28 -28 -19 / -29 / -28 -02 -28.5 -15

TV: Pac-12 Network | MOSTLY FAIR, NORTHWEST WIND 6-11. GAME TEMP 62, RH 32%

 

[CNOTES]

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Michigan State - 7:00 PM ET Western Michigan +16.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Western Michigan -

Fordham - 7:00 PM ET Army -13.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Army -

Rhode Island - 7:00 PM ET Rhode Island +33.5 500
Syracuse -

Baylor - 7:00 PM ET Baylor -36 500 BLOW OUT
Southern Methodist -

Weber State - 8:00 PM ET Weber State +28.5 500
Oregon State -

Kent State - 9:00 PM ET Kent State +14 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Illinois -

Washington - 10:15 PM ET Boise State -12.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Boise State -

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF


Long Sheet


Saturday, September 5


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------


OLD DOMINION (6 - 6) at E MICHIGAN (2 - 10) - 9/5/2015, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E MICHIGAN is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
E MICHIGAN is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 15-38 ATS (-26.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
E MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus OLD DOMINION over the last 3 seasons
OLD DOMINION is 1-0 straight up against E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NEW MEXICO ST (2 - 10) at FLORIDA (7 - 5) - 9/5/2015, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO ST is 82-111 ATS (-40.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW MEXICO ST is 82-111 ATS (-40.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW MEXICO ST is 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992.
NEW MEXICO ST is 74-107 ATS (-43.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


PENN ST (7 - 6) at TEMPLE (6 - 6) - 9/5/2015, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PENN ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
PENN ST is 1-0 against the spread versus TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
PENN ST is 1-0 straight up against TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


FLA ATLANTIC (3 - 9) at TULSA (2 - 10) - 9/5/2015, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLA ATLANTIC is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
TULSA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
TULSA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
TULSA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-0 against the spread versus TULSA over the last 3 seasons
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-0 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


VIRGINIA (5 - 7) at UCLA (10 - 3) - 9/5/2015, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCLA is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in September games since 1992.
UCLA is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA is 1-0 against the spread versus UCLA over the last 3 seasons
UCLA is 1-0 straight up against VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


STANFORD (8 - 5) at NORTHWESTERN (5 - 7) - 9/5/2015, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NORTHWESTERN is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NORTHWESTERN is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NORTHWESTERN is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
NORTHWESTERN is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


LOUISVILLE (9 - 4) vs. AUBURN (8 - 5) - 9/5/2015, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


ARIZONA ST (10 - 3) vs. TEXAS A&M (8 - 5) - 9/5/2015, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BYU (8 - 5) at NEBRASKA (9 - 4) - 9/5/2015, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TROY (3 - 9) at NC STATE (8 - 5) - 9/5/2015, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


UNLV (2 - 11) at N ILLINOIS (11 - 3) - 9/5/2015, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UNLV is 72-107 ATS (-45.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
UNLV is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
N ILLINOIS is 1-0 against the spread versus UNLV over the last 3 seasons
N ILLINOIS is 1-0 straight up against UNLV over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


AKRON (5 - 7) at OKLAHOMA (8 - 5) - 9/5/2015, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BOWLING GREEN (8 - 6) vs. TENNESSEE (7 - 6) - 9/5/2015, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


LA MONROE (4 - 8) at GEORGIA (10 - 3) - 9/5/2015, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA MONROE is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points since 1992.
LA MONROE is 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


LA LAFAYETTE (9 - 4) at KENTUCKY (5 - 7) - 9/5/2015, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


UTEP (7 - 6) at ARKANSAS (7 - 6) - 9/5/2015, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTEP is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
ARKANSAS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


GA SOUTHERN (9 - 3) at W VIRGINIA (7 - 6) - 9/5/2015, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TEXAS (6 - 7) at NOTRE DAME (8 - 5) - 9/5/2015, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TEXAS ST (7 - 5) at FLORIDA ST (13 - 1) - 9/5/2015, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA ST is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA ST is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA ST is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


WISCONSIN (11 - 3) vs. ALABAMA (12 - 2) - 9/5/2015, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MISSISSIPPI ST (10 - 3) at SOUTHERN MISS (3 - 9) - 9/5/2015, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SOUTHERN MISS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-0 against the spread versus SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-0 straight up against SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


ARKANSAS ST (7 - 6) at USC (9 - 4) - 9/5/2015, 11:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF


Week1


Saturday, September 5


12:00 PM
TENNESSEE-MARTIN vs. MISSISSIPPI
Tennessee-Martin is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee-Martin is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Mississippi is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Mississippi is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games


12:00 PM
RICHMOND vs. MARYLAND
Richmond is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Richmond is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Maryland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Maryland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games


12:00 PM
STANFORD vs. NORTHWESTERN
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Stanford's last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Stanford's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Northwestern's last 10 games at home
Northwestern is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games at home


12:00 PM
NORFOLK ST vs. RUTGERS
Norfolk St is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Norfolk St is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Rutgers is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home


12:00 PM
ILLINOIS STATE vs. IOWA
Illinois State is 1-19 SU in its last 20 games
Illinois State is 1-19 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Iowa's last 8 games
Iowa is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 games at home


12:00 PM
LOUISIANA-MONROE vs. GEORGIA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 10 games
Louisiana-Monroe is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Georgia's last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Georgia's last 18 games at home


12:00 PM
COLGATE vs. NAVY
Colgate is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Colgate is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Navy's last 6 games
Navy is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home


12:00 PM
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE vs. KANSAS
South Dakota State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
South Dakota State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas's last 5 games at home
Kansas is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games at home


12:30 PM
WOFFORD vs. CLEMSON
Wofford is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Wofford is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Clemson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Clemson is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games


1:00 PM
YOUNGSTOWN STATE vs. PITTSBURGH
Youngstown State is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games
Youngstown State is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games


1:00 PM
MAINE vs. BOSTON COLLEGE
Maine is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Maine is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston College's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston College's last 12 games at home


2:00 PM
PORTLAND STATE vs. WASHINGTON STATE
Portland State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Portland State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
Washington State is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games


3:00 PM
OLD DOMINION vs. EASTERN MICHIGAN
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Old Dominion's last 6 games
Old Dominion is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Eastern Michigan is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games
Eastern Michigan is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games


3:30 PM
SAM HOUSTON STATE vs. TEXAS TECH
Sam Houston State is 1-16 SU in its last 17 games
Sam Houston State is 1-16 SU in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Texas Tech's last 10 games at home
Texas Tech is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games


3:30 PM
HOWARD vs. APPALACHIAN STATE
Howard is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Howard is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Appalachian State is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Appalachian State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


3:30 PM
LOUISVILLE vs. AUBURN
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Louisville's last 5 games
Louisville is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games
Auburn is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Auburn is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games


3:30 PM
ALBANY, N.Y vs. BUFFALO
No trends available
Buffalo is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games at home
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games


3:30 PM
MORGAN ST vs. AIR FORCE
Morgan St is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Morgan St is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Air Force is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Air Force is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


3:30 PM
VIRGINIA vs. UCLA
Virginia is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Virginia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of UCLA's last 9 games
UCLA is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games


3:30 PM
BYU vs. NEBRASKA
BYU is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of BYU's last 10 games
Nebraska is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Nebraska's last 7 games


3:30 PM
PRESBYTERIAN vs. MIAMI (OHIO)
Presbyterian is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Presbyterian is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami (Ohio)'s last 5 games at home
Miami (Ohio) is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games at home


3:30 PM
FLORIDA ATLANTIC vs. TULSA
Florida Atlantic is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Florida Atlantic is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tulsa is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games at home
Tulsa is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games


3:30 PM
PENN STATE vs. TEMPLE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Penn State's last 7 games when playing Temple
Penn State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Temple
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Temple's last 7 games at home
Temple is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games at home


3:30 PM
TEXAS EL PASO vs. ARKANSAS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas El Paso's last 7 games
Texas El Paso is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games
Arkansas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Arkansas is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games


3:30 PM
WAGNER vs. RICE
Wagner is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Wagner is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Rice is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Rice's last 5 games


4:00 PM
SAVANNAH ST vs. COLORADO STATE
Savannah St is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Savannah St is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Colorado State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Colorado State is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games


4:00 PM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS vs. INDIANA
Southern Illinois is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Southern Illinois is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Indiana is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Indiana's last 19 games at home


4:00 PM
NORTH DAKOTA vs. WYOMING
North Dakota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
North Dakota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Wyoming's last 6 games at home
Wyoming is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games


4:00 PM
BOWLING GREEN vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Bowling Green's last 9 games
Bowling Green is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games


4:00 PM
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE vs. MISSOURI
Southeast Missouri State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Southeast Missouri State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Missouri's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Missouri's last 5 games


5:00 PM
GRAMBLING STATE vs. CALIFORNIA
Grambling State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Grambling State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
California is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
California is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home


6:00 PM
TOWSON vs. EAST CAROLINA
Towson is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
Towson is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of East Carolina's last 10 games at home
East Carolina is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home


6:00 PM
BETHUNE-COOKMAN vs. MIAMI
Bethune-Cookman is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Bethune-Cookman is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games


6:00 PM
GARDNER-WEBB vs. SOUTH ALABAMA
Gardner-Webb is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Gardner-Webb is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
South Alabama is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of South Alabama's last 18 games




6:00 PM
TROY vs. NORTH CAROLINA STATE
Troy is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Troy's last 24 games
North Carolina State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
North Carolina State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at home


7:00 PM
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE vs. KENTUCKY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisiana-Lafayette's last 6 games
Louisiana-Lafayette is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Kentucky is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kentucky's last 5 games at home


7:00 PM
AKRON vs. OKLAHOMA
Akron is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Akron's last 16 games on the road
Oklahoma is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home
Oklahoma is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home


7:00 PM
ARIZONA STATE vs. TEXAS A&M
Arizona State is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Arizona State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Texas A&M is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
Texas A&M is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games


7:00 PM
ALABAMA A&M vs. CINCINNATI
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games
Cincinnati is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games


7:00 PM
MISSOURI STATE vs. MEMPHIS
Missouri State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Missouri State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games at home
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


7:00 PM
SOUTHERN U vs. LOUISIANA TECH
Southern U is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Southern U is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Louisiana Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Louisiana Tech is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games


7:00 PM
JACKSON ST vs. MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Jackson St is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Jackson St is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Middle Tennessee is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Middle Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games


7:00 PM
FLORIDA A&M vs. SOUTH FLORIDA
Florida A&M is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Florida A&M is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of South Florida's last 6 games at home
South Florida is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home


7:10 PM
SOUTH DAKOTA vs. KANSAS STATE
South Dakota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
South Dakota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas State's last 6 games at home


7:30 PM
UNLV vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
UNLV is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of UNLV's last 6 games
Northern Illinois is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Northern Illinois's last 6 games at home


7:30 PM
MCNEESE STATE vs. LSU
McNeese State is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
McNeese State is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LSU's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LSU's last 6 games


7:30 PM
GA SOUTHERN vs. WEST VIRGINIA
Ga Southern is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ga Southern's last 6 games on the road
West Virginia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of West Virginia's last 6 games at home


7:30 PM
TEXAS vs. NOTRE DAME
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Texas's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas's last 6 games
Notre Dame is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Notre Dame is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home


7:30 PM
NEW MEXICO STATE vs. FLORIDA
New Mexico State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
New Mexico State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Florida is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Florida is 4-13-1 ATS in its last 18 games at home


8:00 PM
NORTHERN IOWA vs. IOWA STATE
Northern Iowa is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Northern Iowa is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Iowa State is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Northern Iowa
Iowa State is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Northern Iowa


8:00 PM
TEXAS STATE vs. FLORIDA STATE
Texas State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Texas State's last 10 games on the road
Florida State is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Florida State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


8:00 PM
TENNESSEE TECH vs. HOUSTON
Tennessee Tech is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee Tech is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games


8:00 PM
WISCONSIN vs. ALABAMA
Wisconsin is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Alabama is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Alabama is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games


8:00 PM
EASTERN WASHINGTON vs. OREGON
Eastern Washington is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games
Eastern Washington is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oregon's last 5 games
Oregon is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games


8:00 PM
MISS VALLEY ST vs. NEW MEXICO
No trends available
New Mexico is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
New Mexico is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home


8:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. SAN DIEGO STATE
No trends available
San Diego State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
San Diego State is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home


10:00 PM
MISSISSIPPI STATE vs. SOUTHERN MISS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Mississippi State's last 6 games
Mississippi State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Southern Miss is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Southern Miss is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games


11:00 PM
ARKANSAS STATE vs. SOUTHERN CAL
Arkansas State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arkansas State's last 5 games on the road
Southern Cal is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Southern Cal's last 6 games

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Dunkel


Week 1


Saturday, September 5


Old Dominion @ Eastern Michigan


Game 161-162
September 5, 2015 @ 3:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Old Dominion
64.591
Eastern Michigan
61.438
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Old Dominion
by 3
72
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Old Dominion
by 7
65 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Eastern Michigan
(+7); Over


New Mexico St @ Florida


Game 163-164
September 5, 2015 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
New Mexico St
64.809
Florida
98.734
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida
by 34
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida
by 37
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Mexico St
(+37); Under


Penn State @ Temple


Game 165-166
September 5, 2015 @ 3:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Penn State
88.266
Temple
86.681
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Penn State
by 1 1/2
33
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Penn State
by 7
39
Dunkel Pick:
Temple
(+7); Under


Florida Atlantic @ Tulsa


Game 167-168
September 5, 2015 @ 3:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Florida Atlantic
71.905
Tulsa
69.956
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida Atlantic
by 2
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tulsa
by 7 1/2
62
Dunkel Pick:
Florida Atlantic
(+7 1/2); Over


Virginia @ UCLA


Game 169-170
September 5, 2015 @ 3:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Virginia
81.504
UCLA
111.846
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
UCLA
by 30 1/2
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
UCLA
by 17
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
UCLA
(-17); Over


Stanford @ Northwestern


Game 171-172
September 5, 2015 @ 12:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Stanford
109.014
Northwestern
88.183
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Stanford
by 21
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Stanford
by 12
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Stanford
(-12); Under


Louisville @ Auburn


Game 173-174
September 5, 2015 @ 3:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Louisville
93.951
Auburn
107.480
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Auburn
by 13 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Auburn
by 10 1/2
58 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Auburn
(-10 1/2); Under


Arizona State @ Texas A&M


Game 175-176
September 5, 2015 @ 7:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Arizona State
93.194
Texas A&M
99.288
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Texas A&M
by 6
72
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas A&M
by 3
66
Dunkel Pick:
Texas A&M
(-3); Over


Brigham Young @ Nebraska


Game 177-178
September 5, 2015 @ 3:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Brigham Young
92.948
Nebraska
96.487
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Nebraska
by 3 1/2
69
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Nebraska
by 6 1/2
64 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Brigham Young
(+6 1/2); Over


Troy @ NC State


Game 179-180
September 5, 2015 @ 6:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Troy
62.322
NC State
85.783
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NC State
by 23 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NC State
by 26
58
Dunkel Pick:
Troy
(+26); Under


UNLV @ Northern Illinois


Game 181-182
September 5, 2015 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
UNLV
65.068
Northern Illinois
89.846
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Northern Illinois
by 25
69
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Northern Illinois
by 21
62 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Northern Illinois
(-21); Over


Akron @ Oklahoma


Game 183-184
September 5, 2015 @ 7:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Akron
73.855
Oklahoma
113.557
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma
by 39 1/2
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma
by 31
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma
(-31); Over


Bowling Green @ Tennessee


Game 185-186
September 5, 2015 @ 4:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Bowling Green
80.484
Tennessee
95.299
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 15
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 21
60 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Bowling Green
(+21); Over


LA-Monroe @ Georgia


Game 189-190
September 5, 2015 @ 12:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
LA-Monroe
74.648
Georgia
105.487
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia
by 31
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia
by 35
52
Dunkel Pick:
LA-Monroe
(+35); Under


LA-Lafayette @ Kentucky


Game 191-192
September 5, 2015 @ 7:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
LA-Lafayette
79.953
Kentucky
86.824
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kentucky
by 7
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kentucky
by 17
61
Dunkel Pick:
LA-Lafayette
(+17); Under


UTEP @ Arkansas


Game 193-194
September 5, 2015 @ 3:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
UTEP
69.929
Arkansas
111.762
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arkansas
by 42
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arkansas
by 33
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arkansas
(-33); Under


Georgia Southern @ West Virginia


Game 195-196
September 5, 2015 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Georgia Southern
75.127
West Virginia
98.150
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
West Virginia
by 23
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
West Virginia
by 19 1/2
58 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
West Virginia
(-19 1/2); Under


Texas @ Notre Dame


Game 197-198
September 5, 2015 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Texas
111.420
Notre Dame
105.087
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Texas
by 6 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Notre Dame
by 10
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Texas
(+10); Under


Texas State @ Florida State


Game 199-200
September 5, 2015 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Texas State
76.474
Florida State
103.320
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida State
by 27
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida State
by 30
58
Dunkel Pick:
Texas State
(+30); Over


Wisconsin @ Alabama


Game 201-202
September 5, 2015 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Wisconsin
94.729
Alabama
112.717
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Alabama
by 18
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Alabama
by 10
51
Dunkel Pick:
Alabama
(-10); Over


Mississippi St @ Southern Miss


Game 203-204
September 5, 2015 @ 10:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Mississippi St
109.449
Southern Miss
63.280
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Mississippi St
by 48
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Mississippi St
by 23
56 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Mississippi St
(-23); Under


Arkansas St @ USC


Game 205-206
September 5, 2015 @ 11:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Arkansas St
74.292
USC
94.894
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
USC
by 20 1/2
72
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
USC
by 29
67
Dunkel Pick:
Arkansas St
(+29); Over

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 1


Saturday's games
Arizona State is 3-7 as an underdog under coach Graham; they're 1-7 in last eight neutral field games, 6-6 in non-league games. Sun Devils have a senior QB who made three starts LY. Texas A&M has soph QB with 5 career starts; Aggies are 3-10 vs spread in last 13 neutral field games, are 5-10 as a favorite since '13. Both teams have three starters back on OL. A&M is 8-7 vs spread in its last fifteen non-conference games.


Western Kentucky has 6th-year QB with 24 career starts and 3 starters back on OL: Hilltoppers are 13-7 as road underdogs since 2010, 10-5 in last 15 non-league games. Anytime a team like WKU plays an SEC club it is a big chance for them, even if it is Vanderbilt. Commodores have 4 starters back on OL; they're 3-5 in last eight games as home faves, 3-6 in last nine non-SEC games- their soph QB has made five career starts.


Stanford has a senior QB with 32 career starts and four starters back on its OL (65 starts), but Cardinal is just 3-6 in last nine games as a favorite on road, 4-6-2 in last 12 non-league games- since '12, they're 14-16 as a favorite. Northwestern covered just three of last 14 home games; since '08, they're 7-10 as a home dog- they're 3-8 in last 11 non-league games. Wildcats have a new QB and only two starters back on offensive line.


Nebraska has new coach in Riley; they're learning new offense, but their QB has 21 starts. Huskers lost 3 starters on OL: they're 6-8 as a favorite at home last two years, 10-5 in last 12 non-league games. BYU has a brutal September (Boise-UCLA-Michigan after this); they're 7-3 in last ten games as a road dog, 9-11 vs teams from Power-5 leagues. Cougars have a senior QB (20 starts) and three starters back on OL.


Petrino returns to Georgia Dome; he was Falcons' coach in '07 but quit before first season (3-10) was done. Louisville covered nine of last ten as an underdog but they lost 158 starts off their OL, have just one starter back there. Auburn is 9-8 as a favorite under Malzahn, 7-3 vs spread in neutral field games- they're 18-26 in non-SEC games since '08. Junior QB has made two starts; they've got three starters (60 starts) back on OL.


UCLA (-20) won 28-20 at Virginia LY; Bruins have 18 starters back but lost their QB- their 131 returning starts on OL is most in county. Since 2012, UCLA is 8-6 as a home favorite; they failed to cover its last four non-league games. Virginia is 9-6 in last 15 games as a dog, covering six of last eight non-ACC games; Cavaliers have four starters back on OL (68 starts) but their junior QB has made only three starters in his career.


Since 2005, Notre Dame is 18-31-3 as a home favorite; they're 8-13 vs Power 5 teams, 12-18 in last 30 games as a favorite anywhere. Irish have three starters (68 starts) back on OL but a new QB who started only one game LY. Texas are 3-5 SU in last eight games away from Austin; they're 5-11 as an underdog since '06, 10-12 in last 22 road games. Longhorns are 3-4 as a road dog since '11; their junior QB has made 12 starts.


Wisconsin has its third HC in four years but has a senior QB; Badgers covered five of last seven as an underdog- they're 7-3 in last ten games out of conference. Only two of their top 10 on OL are seniors- they have 58 starts back on OL (6 of top 10 back). Alabama is 7-12 vs spread in last 19 non-SEC games, 9-4 in last 13 neutral games; Tide has new QB, three new starters on OL (40 starts)- they lost eight starters on offense.


-- Eastern Michigan lost 17-3 at Old Dominion LY; outgained by 152 yards; Eagles are 11-21 as home underdogs since '06, 4-8 in non-MAC games. ODU has new QB but four starters back on OL.


-- Florida has a new QB, new coach, very thin OL; two freshmen, two sophs could start- they're 5-11 in last 16 games as a HF. New Mexico State is 2-13-1 in last sixteen games as a road underdog.


-- Penn State (-12) beat Temple 30-13 LY, running ball for 254 yards; Lions are 2-6 as road favorite since 2011. Since '05, Temple is 17-10-1 as a home dog-- they have all 11 starters back on defense.


-- Florida Atlantic is 14-4 in last 18 games as a road dog; they crushed Tulsa 50-21 (even) LY, averaging 14.8 ypa, outgaining Tulsa 518-363. Tulsa covered once in its last seven games as a home favorite.


-- Since 2012, Troy is 7-5-2 as a road underdog; they're 3-6 vs spread in last nine non-league games. NC State is 4-5 as home fave under Doeren; they're 5-4 vs spread in last nine non-ACC games.


-- Georgia Southern is 6-1 as road underdog since '10; they lost four of LY's starters from OL. West Virginia is 5-12 as home favorite since '11; their QB has started only two games.


-- Florida State lost 164 starts off its OL, QB who was 27-1; ;they were 1-6 as home favorite LY. Texas State is 12-7 in last 19 games as a home underdog; they covered seven of last nine non-league games.


-- Mississippi State plays LSU next week; they're 8-4-1 as road faves under Mullen. Bulldogs lost 114 starts off LY's OL. Since '09, Southern Miss 9-17-1 out of conference, 1-6 in last seven as a home dog.


-- USC has senior QB with 27 starts, but they're 6-14 vs spread in last 20 non-Pac-12 games- theya also have whole OL back. Arkansas State is 8-4 in last 12 games as road dog- they have a senior QB (13 starts).

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF Line Watch: Grab Arizona State's spread now

Texas A&M opened -3 and that’s where the line currently sits.

Spread to bet now: Arizona State +3 (vs. Texas A&M)

There hasn’t been any movement on this game as of yet; Texas A&M opened -3 and that’s where the line currently sits. But I expect money to show on Arizona State in this game, so taking the Sun Devils at +3 now may be a prudent move to make.

My raw power ratings actually rate Arizona State slightly higher than Texas A&M, and I don’t think the Aggies should be given more than a point or two for home field since this game will be played in Houston. That means there is value on Arizona State based on my numbers, and since I think the two teams are basically even after adjusting for location, grab the +3 now on the Sun Devils before the line drops.


Spread to wait on: Bowling Green +20.5 (vs. Tennessee)

Tennessee opened as 21-point favorites over Bowling Green, and a little early money has nudged the line down to -20.5 in favor of the Volunteers. However, I expect money to come in on Tennessee from the public bettors closer to kickoff.

Bowling Green returns 10 starters from a fantastic offense that averaged 30 points per game on 433 yards of offense last season. The Falcons can score points, so that makes them a dangerous underdog in this pointspread range. This game will be played in Nashville, and that lessens Tennessee’s home field advantage. Wait and take Bowling Green +21 or more in this game.


Total to watch: Wisconsin/Alabama 50

Wisconsin and Alabama are both similar teams in that they are heavily reliant on running the football and playing excellent defense to win. The total opened around 53.5, and it was quickly bet down to the current number of 50 which is fully understandable.

There are some major question marks on both teams coming into this game. Alabama is young and inexperienced (10 returning starters), but they are obviously super talented. Wisconsin has a new coach in Paul Chryst, and he only has 11 returning starters to work with. The Badgers also have offensive line concerns which will limit their scoring production. This game should be low-scoring, and there’s still value on the Under at the current number

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Short Sheet


Week 1


Saturday September 5


Old Dominion at Eastern Michigan, 3:00 EST
Old Dominion: 8-1 OVER in road games
E. Michigan: 13-26 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points


New Mexico ST at Florida, 7:30 EST
New Mexico ST: 82-111 ATS in all lined games
Florida: 7-3 OVER as a home favorite


Penn State at Temple, 3:30 EST
Penn ST: 0-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
Temple: 9-1 ATS when the total is 42 or less


Florida Atlantic at Tulsa, 3:30 EST
Florida Atlantic: 11-3 ATS as an underdog
Tulsa: 0-8 ATS in non-conference games


Virginia at UCLA, 3:30 EST
Virginia: 2-5 when the total is between 49.5 and 56
UCLA: 50-31 ATS in September games


Stanford at Northwestern, 12:00 EST
Stanford: 3-1 as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points
Northwestern: 3-11 ATS in home lined games


Louisville vs Auburn, 3:30 EST
Louisville: 17-7 UNDER in all games
Auburn: 10-2 UNDER against ACC opponents


Arizona ST vs Texas A&M, 7:00 EST
Arizona ST: 134-128 ATS in all lined games
Texas A&M: 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) in road games in the first half of the season


BYU at Nebraska, 3:30 EST
BYU: 8-19 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 63
Nebraska: 9-2 OVER in all games over


Troy at NC State, 6:00 EST
Troy: 11-13 ATS in all lined games
NC State: 45-26 UNDER as a favorite


UNLV at Northern Illinois, 7:30 EST
UNLV: 12-25 ATS in road games in non-conference games
Northern Illinois: 78-55 UNDER in all lined games


Akron at Oklahoma, 7:00 EST
Akron: 6-0 UNDER as a road underdog
Oklahoma: 12-10 ATS as a favorite of 31 or more points


Bowling Green vs Tennessee, 4:00 EST
Bowling Green: 18-8 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points
Tennessee: 29-39 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points


LA Monroe at Georgia, 12:00 EST
LA Monroe: 12-27 ATS as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points
Georgia: 9-1 OVER as a favorite of 31 or more points


LA Lafayette at Kentucky, 7:00 EST
LA Lafayette: 35-18 OVER (+15.2 Units) in the first half of the season
Kentucky: 5-1 OVER as a home favorite


Utep at Arkansas, 3:30 EST
UTEP: 4-13 ATS as an underdog
Arkansas: 9-2 ATS when playing on a Saturday


Georgia Southern at West Virginia, 7:30 EST
Georgia Southern: 6-1 ATS as a road underdog
West Virginia: 1-5 ATS as a road favorite


Texas at Notre Dame, 7:30 EST
Texas: 10-2 UNDER as an underdog
Notre Dame: 46-68 ATS as a home favorite


Texas ST vs Florida State, 8:00 EST
Texas ST: 6-0 ATS in road lined games
Florida State: 3-11 ATS in all lined games


Wisconsin vs Alabama, 8:00 EST
Wisconsin: 75-57 ATS in the first half of the season
Alabama: 22-26 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56


Mississippi ST at Southern Miss
Mississippi ST: 13-8 ATS in games played on turf
Southern Miss: 4-13 ATS in home games in games played on turf


Arkansas ST at USC, 11:00 EST
Arkansas ST: 90-79 ATS when playing on a Saturday
USC: 61-69 ATS in the first half of the season




Sunday September 6


Purdue at Marshall, 3:00 EST
Purdue: 21-29 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
Marshall: 5-1 OVER when the total is between 56.5 and 63




Monday September 7


Ohio State at Virginia Tech, 8:00 EST
Ohio State: 12-3 OVER in all lined games
Virginia Tech: 10-2 ATS as a home underdog