Yeah, you know, you win some of those and you lose some of those. I think team trends are very overrated, most of the time, but league wide situations ARE NOT overrated. When something has held true for over 20 years, it's not just a coincidence. Teams simply can't get "up" for every game. And, teams like Cleveland, have players playing for jobs, etc. Unless they hate their coach and want to lay down, and even then they really can't because they are still playing for jobs. Denver comes into this game thinking they are all world, after last week's game and the fact Cleveland can't win, etc. All of a sudden, after a quarter, they are in a dog fight. At this point, Cleveland isn't going to lay down. And, even if Denver is up by 17 points, all it takes is a backdoor cover that is meaningless to everyone, except for those bettors out there. Laying dd in the NFL is a very risking proposition.