Clemson at Texas:
The Clemson Tigers and Texas Longhorns face off in the No. 5 vs. No. 12 game in the first round of the College Football Playoff. A date with Arizona State in the Peach Bowl awaits the winner of this one, as two of the sport’s blue blood programs get together down in Austin.A premier coaching matchup between Dabo Swinney and Steve Sarkisian is just one of the many storylines in this one.
CFP First Round: Clemson Tigers at Texas Longhorns (-12, 52)
Saturday Dec. 21, 4 p.m. ETThe highs and lows of college football could not have been more evident at the end of the season for the Clemson Tigers. A home loss to rival South Carolina squashed any hopes of sneaking into the College Football Playoff as an at-large, though that was likely a mere footnote to losing a game that means so much to each program and each fan base.
As luck would have it, Syracuse beat Miami in the final week of the regular season to give Clemson another chance and Dabo Swinney’s team seized the opportunity, beating SMU on a 56-yard walk-off field goal from freshman Nolan Hauser, whose parents were both athletes at Clemson. That win gave Clemson the ACC crown and the CFP berth.
Then there’s Texas, a team that had a chance to win the SEC and avoid this game, but lost in the rematch against Georgia. Many felt like being the No. 5 seed would be a potential blessing, given the setup of the bracket and a date with the “weakest” conference champion.
As it turns out, the extra game may be more of a struggle than originally thought, as Clemson, despite the head-to-head win over SMU, drew the No. 12 seed and Swinney and his battle-tested Tigers with veteran QB Cade Klubnik won’t be overwhelmed heading to Austin for a game of this magnitude.
Klubnik shined for a long stretch of the season, posting a 33/4 TD/INT ratio for the 12 games following the season-opening loss to Georgia. Ironically, the only other game without a TD pass for Klubnik this season is the game against South Carolina, and he has another SEC foe here. This is not the same Clemson team on either side of the ball that we’ve seen in the past, as they finished 30th in yards per play on offense and a very disappointing 59th on defense.
Texas, meanwhile, shines on defense. The Longhorns led the nation in yards per play allowed and ranked third in total defense. As we look ahead to the College Football Playoff, Texas ranks 20th in strength of schedule per Jeff Sagarin and Clemson ranks 51st. That adds a little bit of weight to the fact that Texas led the nation in YPP on defense, while the Tigers, in an objectively worse conference, and without a head-to-head game against Miami, failed to show well.
But, turnovers are the great equalizer and that was really the difference in the ACC Championship Game and has been the difference for Clemson all season long. The Tigers forced 25 turnovers and finished +16 in turnover margin. Texas actually tied for the nation’s lead in takeaways with 28, but had 22 turnovers of their own.
Klubnik has shown a better ability to take care of the ball than Quinn Ewers, though Ewers had a tougher road to hoe. The Texas QB threw at least one pick in nine of 13 games. Many are wondering if there could be an enhanced role for Arch Manning after Ewers struggled to protect the ball, avoid sacks, and capitalize on scoring opportunities against Georgia in the last data point we have. He also completed just 55.8% of his passes against Washington in last year’s CFP Semifinal.
All we know about this one is we have two very talented play callers in Steve Sarkisian and Clemson OC Garrett Riley, and two quarterbacks whose ball security may not only decide who covers, but who actually wins the game.
This line has climbed a bit from what it was when our College Football Playoff Betting Guide went live, where this preview was originally published. My opinion remains the same. This spread is too big.
Pick: Clemson +12
