The NIT rolls on with quarterfinal action between Cincinnati and Utah Valley on Wednesday. The Bearcats (23-12) took down Hofstra on Saturday, 79-65, to advance while also winning ATS as -1 favorites on the road. The Wolverines (26-8) took down Colorado on Sunday, 81-69, winning ATS as +4.5 underdogs on the road. This will be just the second meeting between these schools, with the winner moving on to play either UAB or Vanderbilt in the Semifinals next Tuesday. Tipoff from the UCCU Center in Orem, Utah is set for 9:00 p.m. EST.
Landers Nolly scored a team-high 20 points in the team’s win over Hofstra. It was the 25th straight game scoring in double digits for the senior guard, and 12th game this season scoring 20-or-more. Including the AAC Tournament, Nolly has average 17.8 points per game in four postseason matchups.
Trey Woodbury struck for 15 of his 25 points in the second half to lead the Wolverines offense over Colorado. The senior guard shot 11-for-15 overall, hitting 3 three-pointers. He also has 7 rebounds and 7 assists. Over the last four games, Woodbury has averaged 21.3 points per game on 59.6% shooting, with 7.5 rebounds and 6 assists per game.
This will be the first time these two have met since 2010 and only the second time ever. The Bearcats won that affair, 92-72, but that is ancient history at this point. There were no common opponents between the two this season either. Both teams were fantastic in the books this season, Cincinnati going 23-11 ATS and Utah Valley 23-9 ATS all year. The Wolverines are also 8-3 ATS at home this season, while the Bearcats are 6-5 ATS on the road. Given their propensity for rebounding and blocked shots, you would expect the Wolverines to own the paint. However, they are going to have their hands extremely full with this Bearcats front court. Cincinnati has a size advantage and will make things hard down low for Utah State to do what they like. The Bearcats even have big guards who are capable of banging as well. Both teams have shot well in the postseason, but Cincinnati has faced tough tests overall and is more battle ready for these moments. They are 5-1 ATS over their last six games and 4-1 ATS in their last five away from home.
Take the Bearcats.
Prediction: Colorado +1.5
These two teams have been putting up the points in the postseason. Cincinnati has averaged 73 points per game in their four games, including scoring just 48 against top-ranked Houston in the AAC Tourney. Utah Valley has averaged 81 points per game over their last four games, so combined these teams have given us 154 points per game on average. The Bearcats have scored 79-or-more in five of their last seven games and have had 16 of their games go over this season. The Wolverines have scored 81 or more in three straight games and four of their last five. These teams are also considered high-tempo offenses with KenPom ranking Cincinnati 114th in their tempo ratings and Utah Valley 43rd. With both teams shooting over 50% in their last games and the points they’ve been putting up at the end of the season, I expect that to continue.
Take the over.
Prediction: Over 148.5
Cincinnati in complete control
In their second round win the Bearcats took a 6-5 lead in the third minute and never looked back, running the lead to three at the half and to 19 at its highest point. They shot 52.6% from the field, but only 28.6% from three. Cincinnati dominated down low, scoring 40 points and owning the glass, out-rebounding Hofstra, 42-27. They did cough up 15 turnovers on the day that led to 14 points for the Pride, so that’ll be an area they look to sure up on Wednesday. This season the Bearcats are averaging 77.4 points per game on offense, 48th best in the country, while allowing 69.2 points per game on the defense end. Over their last five games the Bearcats averaged 77.8 points per game behind 45.4% shooting overall. On the rebounding front they have averaged a solid 37.2 per game to go along with a +2.8 margin in their favor. They normally do well to hold on to the ball, averaging just 10.7 turnovers on the year to go with a 1.5 assist-to-turnover ratio.Landers Nolly scored a team-high 20 points in the team’s win over Hofstra. It was the 25th straight game scoring in double digits for the senior guard, and 12th game this season scoring 20-or-more. Including the AAC Tournament, Nolly has average 17.8 points per game in four postseason matchups.
Utah Valley offense flashes claws
A late second half surge allowed the Wolverines to pull away from Colorado after the pair were tied at the half. Excellent shooting carried Utah Valley who was 55.9% from the field, 52.9% from three and 100% from the free-throw line. Utah Valley had 32 rebounds and three blocked shots. On the season they have averaged 39.9 rebounds per game, seventh best in the country and their 6.6 blocks per game are tops in the land. The Wolverines offense is just behind Cincinnati’s, averaging 77.2 points per game, 52nd in the country, and have shot 46.6% from the field and 33.6% from three. On the defense end they’ve allowed 68.1 points per game on average, holding the opposition to 39.1% shooting from the field, fifth best in the country, and 30.6% from three on the year. Utah Valley has averaged 87.4 points of offense over their last five games and have allowed 70.8 per game.Trey Woodbury struck for 15 of his 25 points in the second half to lead the Wolverines offense over Colorado. The senior guard shot 11-for-15 overall, hitting 3 three-pointers. He also has 7 rebounds and 7 assists. Over the last four games, Woodbury has averaged 21.3 points per game on 59.6% shooting, with 7.5 rebounds and 6 assists per game.
This will be the first time these two have met since 2010 and only the second time ever. The Bearcats won that affair, 92-72, but that is ancient history at this point. There were no common opponents between the two this season either. Both teams were fantastic in the books this season, Cincinnati going 23-11 ATS and Utah Valley 23-9 ATS all year. The Wolverines are also 8-3 ATS at home this season, while the Bearcats are 6-5 ATS on the road. Given their propensity for rebounding and blocked shots, you would expect the Wolverines to own the paint. However, they are going to have their hands extremely full with this Bearcats front court. Cincinnati has a size advantage and will make things hard down low for Utah State to do what they like. The Bearcats even have big guards who are capable of banging as well. Both teams have shot well in the postseason, but Cincinnati has faced tough tests overall and is more battle ready for these moments. They are 5-1 ATS over their last six games and 4-1 ATS in their last five away from home.
Take the Bearcats.
Prediction: Colorado +1.5
These two teams have been putting up the points in the postseason. Cincinnati has averaged 73 points per game in their four games, including scoring just 48 against top-ranked Houston in the AAC Tourney. Utah Valley has averaged 81 points per game over their last four games, so combined these teams have given us 154 points per game on average. The Bearcats have scored 79-or-more in five of their last seven games and have had 16 of their games go over this season. The Wolverines have scored 81 or more in three straight games and four of their last five. These teams are also considered high-tempo offenses with KenPom ranking Cincinnati 114th in their tempo ratings and Utah Valley 43rd. With both teams shooting over 50% in their last games and the points they’ve been putting up at the end of the season, I expect that to continue.
Take the over.
Prediction: Over 148.5
