Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh 11/5/2011

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Cincinnati winning 47% of simulations, and Pittsburgh 53% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Cincinnati commits fewer turnovers in 38% of simulations and they go on to win 60% when they take care of the ball. Pittsburgh wins 64% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Isaiah Pead is averaging 95 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (32% chance) then he helps his team win 60%. Zach Brown is averaging 80 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (38% chance) then he helps his team win 66%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is PIT +3

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