Cincinnati vs Cleveland on 05/17 by Jay_Robinson
5
FINAL
4
Game Cincinnati
+145
WIN
Won 1.45
Handicapper Analysis
0
Taking the underdog Cincinnati Reds (9-26, minus-14.05 betting units) is a classic contrarian bet. The problem is that Major League Baseball incentives tanking, and that undermines Cincinnati’s betting value in a way that both the projections and the market might not reflect.
Having said that, the Cleveland Guardians (16-17, plus-0.86 units) aren’t exactly tearing things up. And the Reds appear to have the pitching advantage Tuesday night with Connor Overton (3.22 FIP), who rates 16 Elo points better than Zach Plesac (4.88 FIP) according to FiveThirtyEight. Plesac gave up 10 runs over 10 combined innings in his last two starts for Cleveland.
Having said that, the Cleveland Guardians (16-17, plus-0.86 units) aren’t exactly tearing things up. And the Reds appear to have the pitching advantage Tuesday night with Connor Overton (3.22 FIP), who rates 16 Elo points better than Zach Plesac (4.88 FIP) according to FiveThirtyEight. Plesac gave up 10 runs over 10 combined innings in his last two starts for Cleveland.
