Quantum,
Like most betting, its not what you think will happen but at what price, Soccer, especially the EPL is very sharp. You need to have a template of prices that immediately shows whether you are getting value, in this case the price should be nearer +115. If you can get in touch with me, I will give you mine for U/O goals. As long as you keep it to yourself.:drink:
Like most betting, its not what you think will happen but at what price, Soccer, especially the EPL is very sharp. You need to have a template of prices that immediately shows whether you are getting value, in this case the price should be nearer +115. If you can get in touch with me, I will give you mine for U/O goals. As long as you keep it to yourself.:drink:
winbet said:
Gladly winbet. You can get my email address from wil or if you prefer he can give me yours.
I look at www.betbrain.com for a list of prices. Is this what you mean as having a template of prices?
As far as the EPL being very sharp, I've consistently seen Pinnacle and bet365 having the Everton line at "2 and 2.5" where most others have it at 2.5 so that has partly lead me to believe in the unders. However I feel that could be misleading as they are giving me a better price at that mark than the other books at 2.5. It is somewhat confusing to think that they may have a "lean" on the under when in fact they are simply appearing to be that way at the equivalent price.
Any thoughts on this? Thanks in advance.
Duck said it. 2.25 under/overs are a recent phenomenon, even at pinnacle, of course they ve had them for a long while, but to move the line immediately to the 2.25 instead of hosting lower odds is a policy the 've taken only recently, in the past year(s). And I also know for a fact that they compile their own under/over lines.
@winbet
"If you can get in touch with me, I will give you mine for U/O goals. As long as you keep it to yourself"
CAN I HAVE IT TOO? I am very interested to see what you have come up with winbet. That will be too selves keeping it to themselves, silent as a tombstones.
Jack.
(who will be sending flowers, wines and swiss (he,he) chocolate over at the bayern hq in Munich if they finally manage to win him a bet.)
@winbet
"If you can get in touch with me, I will give you mine for U/O goals. As long as you keep it to yourself"
CAN I HAVE IT TOO? I am very interested to see what you have come up with winbet. That will be too selves keeping it to themselves, silent as a tombstones.
Jack.
(who will be sending flowers, wines and swiss (he,he) chocolate over at the bayern hq in Munich if they finally manage to win him a bet.)
OK, to save time and effort.
Look up the total goals in a match on Sporting Index and IG Index. They move in tenths of a goal from 2 to 3.these prices are very keen and they cannot afford to be wrong, if they are different, err on the cautious side. Now its a matter of putting a set of price values to each segment, its worth experimenting but I am happy with mine.
In 1.5 goals U/O
2.0 goals 2.4/1.70
2.1 " 2.6/1.63
2.2 2.8/1.56
2.3 3.0/1.50
In 2.5 goals U/O
2.0 goals 1.55/2.85
2.1 1.60/2.70
2.2 1.65/2.55 ETC,ETC
I have many arguements with friends who know their football and say things like, both teams dont score much etc, that is why the price is Low. But at the end of the day its the public perception that fuels the odds, however the books that matter do not go along with it. All this tells you is whether you are getting true value on games based on people who are sharper than most in the industry.:drink:
Look up the total goals in a match on Sporting Index and IG Index. They move in tenths of a goal from 2 to 3.these prices are very keen and they cannot afford to be wrong, if they are different, err on the cautious side. Now its a matter of putting a set of price values to each segment, its worth experimenting but I am happy with mine.
In 1.5 goals U/O
2.0 goals 2.4/1.70
2.1 " 2.6/1.63
2.2 2.8/1.56
2.3 3.0/1.50
In 2.5 goals U/O
2.0 goals 1.55/2.85
2.1 1.60/2.70
2.2 1.65/2.55 ETC,ETC
I have many arguements with friends who know their football and say things like, both teams dont score much etc, that is why the price is Low. But at the end of the day its the public perception that fuels the odds, however the books that matter do not go along with it. All this tells you is whether you are getting true value on games based on people who are sharper than most in the industry.:drink:
Winbet, thanks for taking the time buddy, much appreciated, I am embarassed to say though without any background at all in spread betting I can't figure out what you are doing. If any of the other guys gets it you can so kind enough as to explain it to old jackie here too. Otherwise I ll have to do some reading on spreads.
JackDee said:
I know this may be a pain for you guys, but what the hell is a quarter goal and how does it differ from a half? My accounts only offer the half goals. Logically speaking it is either 2 or 3, so it wouldn't see to matter, but maybe I am missing something.
Fulham 1, Chelsea 0.
:monsters-
Am I missing something here? Were half the Chelsea players gone on vacation and the other half not show up??? In-f***ing-credible.
On a related note, 6 out of 10 matches went over the 2.5 mark, some quite a bit over. I'm going to do some studying on betting some overs. It seems that a new dynamic has appeared.
:monsters-
Am I missing something here? Were half the Chelsea players gone on vacation and the other half not show up??? In-f***ing-credible.
On a related note, 6 out of 10 matches went over the 2.5 mark, some quite a bit over. I'm going to do some studying on betting some overs. It seems that a new dynamic has appeared.
Jack,
Its nothing to do with spread betting, you are just using 2 spread firms to ascertain a price. Firstly 2 things, I have a deep laid hatred for losing money to books due to years of misery, so I can go forever without a bet rather than give them any easy touch, only when I think I am beating their price do I put my head out of my shell. Secondly, I have long given up trying to be a judge at certain sports, soccer being one of them. These 2 firms put big money down on every game so their opinion is good enough for me.
If you take the Southampton game Monday, they are going 2.5 goals. On my template that means in the U/O 1.5 goals market, the under should be 3.4, the over 1.4, in the U/O 2.5 goals market the under should be 1.8 and the over 2.25. A quick look at Betfair suggests the value, although slight is in the over, however, I would have to get at least 2.3 to have a bet. As you probably know, different Countries do not have the same scoring levels, so different templates are needed.:drink:
Its nothing to do with spread betting, you are just using 2 spread firms to ascertain a price. Firstly 2 things, I have a deep laid hatred for losing money to books due to years of misery, so I can go forever without a bet rather than give them any easy touch, only when I think I am beating their price do I put my head out of my shell. Secondly, I have long given up trying to be a judge at certain sports, soccer being one of them. These 2 firms put big money down on every game so their opinion is good enough for me.
If you take the Southampton game Monday, they are going 2.5 goals. On my template that means in the U/O 1.5 goals market, the under should be 3.4, the over 1.4, in the U/O 2.5 goals market the under should be 1.8 and the over 2.25. A quick look at Betfair suggests the value, although slight is in the over, however, I would have to get at least 2.3 to have a bet. As you probably know, different Countries do not have the same scoring levels, so different templates are needed.:drink:
Sorry Jack but I havent. In my experience you can get bogged down looking at stats etc, basically if I know 2 teams are matched exactly then the price is EVENS, regardless of other data and stats. Those 2 books are the best judges in the game, so its just a matter of putting prices to their view. To give you an example, I consider myself as good a judge in NFL as anyone and know my onions when it comes to odds, however last season I only had 4 bets with Sporting, thats how many times I thought they were out, and I ended up 2-2.
As I showed earlier, my values go up by .2 in the 1.5 mkts and .05 in the 2.5 mkt
2.0 goals= 2.4 for the under
2.1 " = 2.6 etc
3.0 goals = 4.4
2.5 goals mkt
2.0 goals = 1.55 for the under
2.1 " = 1.6 etc
the overs are just the opposite value.:thumbsup2:
As I showed earlier, my values go up by .2 in the 1.5 mkts and .05 in the 2.5 mkt
2.0 goals= 2.4 for the under
2.1 " = 2.6 etc
3.0 goals = 4.4
2.5 goals mkt
2.0 goals = 1.55 for the under
2.1 " = 1.6 etc
the overs are just the opposite value.:thumbsup2:
