Cheer's to President Bush for bringing the US out of a recession....

[KMAN]

that began during Clinton's administration.


Stocks Rise on Bullish Earnings

Monday, January 26, 2004

NEW YORK — Stocks rose Monday, with the Dow Jones industrial average and Nasdaq Composite Index hitting highs not seen for more than 2-1/2 years, as a bullish report on Merck (MRK) and strong housing data boosted the Dow ahead of more earnings reports.

The Dow Jones industrial average (search) closed up 132.75 points, or 1.26 percent, at 10,701.04. its highest close since June 2001. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (search) ended up 13.46 points, or 1.18 percent, at 1,155.01, its highest close since March 2002. The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite Index (search) finished up 27.06 points, or 1.27 percent, at 2,150.93, its highest close since June 2001.

This week is one of the busiest in corporate America's quarterly reporting period and there is also a host of economic data on tap and comments from the Federal Reserve's (search) policy-making body, the Federal Open Market Committee, which will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday.

It's widely assumed that the Fed will reiterate its commitment to keeping U.S. interest rates at a 45-year low for a considerable period.e meeting are expected to be announced on Wednesday.

"I think people are on the sidelines probably waiting to hear what the (FOMC) has to say on Wednesday," said Dan McMahon, head of listed trading at CIBC World Markets Inc. "Everything is still very much earnings driven. People are just in a wait and see mode for the next catalyst."

Investors are anticipating the government's advance reading of change in the U.S. g**** domestic product on Friday, Dunay added. Wall Street has pegged a 4.8 percent rise in real GDP -- the broadest measure of economic activity -- for the fourth quarter, according to analysts polled by Reuters.

Drugmaker Merck (MRK) rose after a report in Barron's on Sunday said Merck's cheap stock price "could spell a buying opportunity" for investors.

The newspaper cited Merck's new treatments for cervical cancer, diabetes and other ailments, which could help reverse the company's fortunes if the products make it to the market. Merck shares rose $1.52, or 3.3 percent, to $47.29 and were the Dow's biggest percentage gainer.

American Express Co. (AXP) on Monday posted higher fourth-quarter profits as the financial services company put its charge cards in the hands of more consumers and improved stock market conditions lifted its asset management business.

The Dow component rose 35 cents to $50.31 in afternoon trading after it posted its results.

Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) rose after the No. 1 U.S. meat processor reported higher first-quarter earnings even after taking a $61 million charge for canceled shipments of beef. Its shares rose $1.39, or 10.3 percent, to $14.89 on relief that the impact of mad cow disease was not more severe.

Schering-Plough Corp. (SGP) shares rose, even after the drugmaker posted a quarterly net loss due to a big charge for job cuts and lower sales of its key allergy and hepatitis drugs. It also forecast this year's results would be worse than dismal 2003 earnings. Schering-Plough shares initially fell before recovering to $17.76, up 24 cents.

Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB) was up $1.83 at $58.38 after it posted a rise in fourth-quarter earnings, beating Wall Street's estimates. The maker of personal care products Huggies, Kotex and Depends has engaged in a fierce price war with rival Procter & Gamble Co.

The National Association of Realtors (search) reported that sales of previously owned homes set a record high in 2003. Low mortgage rates have powered the housing market.

The Russell 2000 index, which tracks smaller company stocks, was down 1.00, or 0.2 percent, at 595.14.

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average finished 2.8 percent higher Monday. In Europe, France's CAC-40 closed down 0.5 percent, Britain's FTSE 100 lost 0.3 percent and Germany's DAX index shed 0.6 percent in late-day trading.

KMAN

 

[lander]

Indeed.

Hill budget office sees record deficit in '04 $477 billion red-ink estimate seen an election issueThe Associated Press

Federal deficits will total nearly $2.4 trillion over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office projected Monday, a worsening of nearly $1 trillion since its last forecast in August.

“Make no mistake; President Bush is serious about the deficit,” Snow said.
Yeah, serious about creating deficits in record highs with his unprecedented incompetence and irresponsibility.

"The cumulative national debt is already over $7 trillion."
Fuk, what's another trillion here or there. Anyone ready for another war? Bring em' on

---------------------------
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4063380/
Hill budget office sees record deficit in '04
$477 billion red-ink estimate seen an election issueThe Associated Press
Updated: 12:30 p.m. ET Jan. 26, 2004WASHINGTON - Federal deficits will total nearly $2.4 trillion over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office projected Monday, a worsening of nearly $1 trillion since its last forecast in August.

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In its annual wintertime economic update, Congress’ nonpartisan fiscal analyst also projected that the red ink would hit a record $477 billion this year.

Though the report envisions next year’s shortfall dipping to $362 billion, the estimates are sure to become ammunition in the election-year fight over red ink. Already, Democrats are hitting President Bush for the stark reversal from huge surpluses of just three years ago, while conservative Republicans are criticizing him for excessive spending as well.

“The president wants to go to Mars, and he’s got deficits going to the moon,” said Sen. Kent Conrad of North Dakota, top Democrat on the Senate Budget Committee.

Treasury Secretary John Snow, in a speech delivered via satellite to a conference in London, repeated the administration’s commitment to cut the deficit in half — toward a size that is below 2 percent of g**** domestic product — over the next five years.

“Make no mistake; President Bush is serious about the deficit,” Snow said.

CALENDAR Coming up

Major economic indicators and events

Monday, Jan. 26
- Existing home sales

Tuesday, Jan. 27
- Consumer confidence
- FOMC meeting (first day

Wednesday, Jan. 28
- Durable goods orders
- New home sales
- FOMC meeting and decision

Thursday, Jan. 29
- Initial jobless claims
- Employment cost index
- FOMC minutes

Friday, Jan. 30
- G**** domestic product
- Consumer sentiment (Michigan)



MSNBC research
Click here to see key economic indicators • Printable version

All the congressional projections assume the president and Congress will not cut taxes or increase spending — an unlikely scenario, particularly with control of the White House and Congress up for grabs this November.

The report’s short-term projections were in the neighborhood of where they were in the budget office’s last report five months ago.

The most marked deterioration was for the decade ending 2013, for which the office projected cumulative deficits of $2.38 trillion. That was $986 billion worse than it estimated last August, and $3.7 trillion deeper than it projected a year ago.

The forecast worsened in part because the budget office assumed — as it is required to by law — that the $87.5 billion approved last year for wars in Iraq and Afghanistan will be renewed annually for the decade. Many lawmakers and analysts consider that unlikely.

The office also factored in new costs like the prescription drug benefit created last fall. In addition, the report projects lower federal revenue than was anticipated earlier, partly as result of lower inflation that the budget office now expects.

But the budget office did not include the costs of programs or initiatives lawmakers are considered likely to approve in coming years. These include making at least some tax cuts permanent, changing the alternative minimum tax so it doesn’t affect growing number of middle-income earners, and spending increases for popular programs or unforeseen needs like war or disasters.

The cumulative national debt is already over $7 trillion.

GUIDE Key economic indicators


Click an indicator name to learn more
Period Latest Prev.
• Consumer Confidence Dec.* 91.3 92.5
• Retail sales Dec.* 0.5% 1.2%
• GDP Q3* 8.2% 3.3%
• ISM Index Dec.* 66.2 62.8
• Factory Orders Nov.* -1.4% 2.4%
• Unemployment Rate Dec. 5.7% 5.9%
• Employment situation Dec.* 1,000 43,000
• Consumer inflation Dec. 1.1% 1.1%
• Housing starts Dec.* 2,088,000 2,054,000
• Home sales Nov.* 7,142,000 7,459,000



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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Recent figures
Dec.* 91.3
Nov. 92.5
Oct. 81.7
Sept. 77.0
Aug. 81.7
July 77.0
June 83.5
May 83.6
April 81.0
March 61.4
Feb. 64.8
Jan. 03 78.8

What is it?
Consumer confidence is considered important because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. The monthly Conference Board survey is one of the two most closely watched indicators of sentiment. Based on a mail-in survey sent to about 5,000 households. Results are converted to an index and expressed in comparison to the 1985 average of 100.
Source: The Conference Board



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RETAIL SALES
Recent figures
Dec.* 0.5%
Nov. 1.2%
Oct. 0.0%
Sept. -0.3%
Aug. 1.0%
July 1.4%
June 0.9%
May 0.5%
April -0.3%
March 2.3%
Feb. -1.4%
Jan. 03 0.4%

What is it?
A broad measure of consumer spending trends. Includes sales of motor vehicles, clothing, food at both grocery stores and restaurants, electronics, building materials drugs and other items. Expressed as a percent change from previous month, adjusted for seasonal variations but not price changes.
Source: Census Bureau



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GDP
Recent figures
Q3* 8.2%
Q2 3.3%
Q1 2003 1.4%
Q4 1.4%
Q3 4.0%
Q2 1.3%
Q1 2002 5.0%
Q4 2.7%
Q3 -0.3%
Q2 -1.6%
Q1 2001 -0.6%
Q4 1.1%

What is it?
The g**** domestic product is the broadest measure of the economy, comprising the value of all goods and services produced in the United States. It is reported quarterly with frequent revisions. Generally expressed as a percentage change from the previous quarter in "real" or inflation-adjusted terms. Economists presume real GDP is capable of growing at an annual rate of about 3.5 percent over the long term. When GDP declines over a sustained period of time the economy is considered to be in recession.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.



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ISM INDEX
Recent figures
Dec.* 66.2
Nov. 62.8
Oct. 57.0
Sept. 53.7
Aug. 54.7
July 51.8
June 49.8
May 49.4
April 45.4
March 46.2
Feb. 50.5
Jan. 03 53.9

What is it?
The first major indicator reported each month, considered a reliable assessment of how the manufacturing sector is performing. Based on a survey of executives done by the Institute for Supply Management, formerly known as the National Association of Purchasing Management. Responses are compiled and reported as an index number. A reading above 50 percent indicates the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below 50 indicates it is shrinking.
Source: Institute for Supply Management



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FACTORY ORDERS
Recent figures
Nov.* -1.4%
Oct. 2.4%
Sept. 1.4%
Aug. -0.3%
July 2.0%
June 1.9%
May 0.3%
April -2.6%
March 1.5%
Feb. -0.5%
Jan. 03 1.6%
Dec. 0.3%

What is it?
Data on new orders for manufactured goods, adjusted for seasonal variation, offer a good indicator of the manufacturing sector's health, closely watched because it is the most volatile part of the economy. Expressed as percent change from previous month.
Source: Census Bureau.



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UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Recent figures
Dec. 5.7%
Nov. 5.9%
Oct. 6.0%
Sept. 6.1%
Aug. 6.1%
July 6.2%
June 6.4%
May 6.1%
April 6.0%
March 5.8%
Feb. 5.8%
Jan. 03 5.7%

What is it?
One of the best known and most politically powerful economic indicators, the rate is calculated from a monthly survey among a sample of about 60,000 households. The rate is adjusted for seasonal variations, but unlike most economic statistics it is never revised.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.



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EMPLOYMENT SITUATION
Recent figures
Dec.* 1,000
Nov. 43,000
Oct. 100,000
Sept. 99,000
Aug. 35,000
July -57,000
June -83,000
May -76,000
April -22,000
March -151,000
Feb. -121,000
Jan. 03 158,000

What is it?
Represents the month-to-month change in jobs on payrolls of the nation's business, government and non-profit establishments. Generally considered a more accurate indicator of labor market health than the unemployment rate. Analysts estimate the economy should add about 150,000 jobs monthly to keep up with the nation's growing work force. Based on a sample of 300,000 establishments employing nearly a third of the nation's workers, the figure is adjusted for seasonal variations and frequently revised.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.



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CONSUMER INFLATION
Recent figures
Dec. 1.1%
Nov. 1.1%
Oct. 1.3%
Sept. 1.2%
Aug. 1.3%
July 1.5%
June 1.5%
May 1.6%
April 1.5%
March 1.7%
Feb. 1.7%
Jan. 03 1.9%

What is it?
The most widely known and used measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index is based on the price of a "basket"of goods including food, beverages, fuel, medical care and clothing. Value refers to year-over-year change in "core" prices, excluding volatile food and energy categories.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.



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HOUSING STARTS
(seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Recent figures
Dec.* 2,088,000
Nov. 2,054,000
Oct. 1,977,000
Sept. 1,931,000
Aug. 1,831,000
July 1,890,000
June 1,844,000
May 1,745,000
April 1,627,000
March 1,742,000
Feb. 1,640,000
Jan. 03 1,828,000

What is it?
A good indicator to assess demand for housing and construction industry health. Represents the number of new residential buildings, including single-family and multifamily homes, where construction was started. Expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Construction was started on 1.7 million new residential structures in 2002, the highest level since 1986.
Source: Census Bureau.



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HOME SALES
(seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Recent figures
Nov.* 7,142,000
Oct. 7,459,000
Sept. 7,817,000
Aug. 7,650,000
July 7,275,000
June 7,030,000
May 6,931,000
April 6,854,000
March 6,538,000
Feb. 6,795,000
Jan. 03 7,029,000
Dec. 6,973,000

What is it?
One of the bright spots of the economy in recent years, driven at least in part by historically low mortgage rates. Figure represents the sum of new and existing single-family home sales, expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate. In 2002, a record 6.5 million homes were sold.
Sources: National Association of Realtors, Census Bureau




* preliminary figures • Printable version

Bush plans to send Congress a $2.3 trillion budget for that year next Monday in the face of growing criticism by Democrats and conservatives over increased spending and surging federal shortfalls.

Underscoring the political pressure he feels, Bush and administration officials have said their budget will propose cutting the deficit to half of this year’s level by 2009.

Bush has so far revealed no details of how he would achieve that. Democrats say his goal would be a minimal accomplishment because deficits are so high to start with. They also say it is meant as a distraction from the even deeper deficits expected when baby boomers retire in force just beyond a decade from now.

The deficit hit $375 billion in 2003, the highest in dollar terms ever. The previous record was $290 billion in 1992. Administration officials say the more important measure is how the shortfall compares to the size of the U.S. economy, a measure by which today’s red ink is smaller than it was in the 1980s.

All the estimates assume lawmakers will not rewrite any tax laws and let spending grow only at the rate of inflation.

Because tax and spending changes are inevitable, the forecasts are not meant as a prediction. Rather, they provide lawmakers with a baseline from which to measure the effect their policies would have on the budget.

The two parties are already fighting over the red ink that has materialized during the Bush years.

The budget’s health has taken an abrupt nosedive after four straight years of annual surpluses that ran through 2001.

Only last January, the budget office estimated 10-year surpluses — not deficits — of $1.3 trillion. And in January 2001, when Bush took office, the projection was for a decade of black ink totaling $5.6 trillion.

Republicans say Bush is not to blame for the turnabout. Analysts say the surpluses have dissolved due to the recession, the tax cuts Bush pushed through Congress, and growing spending for defense, Medicare and other programs.

Even so, many Republicans have grown increasingly uneasy with the shortfalls. The public has mostly ignored the budget gaps, focusing instead on the economy, war and terrorism, but recent polls indicate people are paying more attention.

 

[Banned4Life]

You obviously know about as much about the economy as you do about meteorology.