Chase Systems

[brewers7]

-----------------------------------

Day 38:

#1 Clm +174 (4 units)-L
#2 Phi +155 (2 units)--W
#3 Tor +150 (1 unit)--L
#4 Buf +140 (1 unit)--L
#5 NYI +133 (1 unit)--W
#6 Colo +130 (1 unit)--W
#7 Nash +125 (1 unit)-W
#8 NJ +120 (1 unit)---W
#9 Bos +118 (1 unit)--L
#10 Dal +110 (1 unit)--W

6-4, +$228
Overall: 86-137, +$67,403

$5 base bet would be up $3370.15 after 38 days...
-----------------------------------

Day 39:

#1 LA +167 (8 units)--L
#2 Atl +145 (2 units)--L
#3 TB +137 (2 units)--L
#4 Stl +116 (2 units)--L

0-4, -$1400
Overall: 86-141, +$66,003

$5 base bet would be up $3300.15 after 39 days...
-----------------------------------


Day 40:

#1 Edm +190 (16 units)-L
#2 Ott +145 (4 units)--L
#3 NYI +127 (4 units)--W
#4 Nash +122 (4 units)--L
#5 Tor +120 (1 unit)---L

1-4, -$1992
Overall: 87-145, +$64,011

$5 base bet would be up $3200.55 after 40 days...
-----------------------------------

Day 41:

#1 Fla +146 (32 units)-W
#2 Colo +135 (8 units)-L
#3 Edm +133 (8 units)-W
#4 Min +132 (2 units)-W
#5 Caro +105 (1 unit)--W

4-1, +$5305
Overall: 91-146, +$69,316

$5 base bet would be up $3465.80 after 41 days...
-----------------------------------

 

[Jambruins]

how do you determine who is the #1 play and so on? Are there numbers/stats you use or do you just rank them based on gut feeling?

 

[brewers7]

how do you determine who is the #1 play and so on? Are there numbers/stats you use or do you just rank them based on gut feeling?

It was explained earlier in the thread...

It is simply taking the highest moneyline dog on the board at #1 and then simply listing them all in decreasing order, from highest to lowest plus-juice dog...

Every loss is then martingaled until the losing streak is over and that's how you get the units...Put the highest losing streak at the top daily down to the lowest remaining losing streak and all other games are 1-unit bets..

Carry over all losing streaks to the next day if there aren't enough games...

Nothing fancy...

 

[brewers7]

-----------------------------------

Day 42:

#1 Van +125 (16 units)-W
#2 Buf +117 (1 unit)---L
#3 Was +115 (1 unit)---W


2-1, +$2015
Overall: 93-147, +$71,331

$5 base bet would be up $3566.55 after 42 days...
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[incomeraise]

where do u get ur lines, and at what time?
because i tougth buffalo was the bigger underdog yesterday i guess bnot
thanks for answering

 

[brewers7]

where do u get ur lines, and at what time?
because i tougth buffalo was the bigger underdog yesterday i guess bnot
thanks for answering

Since I started the season taking the OPENING lines from OTK's head-to-head thread for simplicity sake (http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=629082 ), I figured I'd be consistent and keep using those opening lines all season long...I believe they come out before midnight or 1 a.m. EST...So I have been using opening lines all season long...So if you look at every line posted, except for the ones he left out here and there, I took them from the thread 99% of the time...

Back before Pinnacle came around, almost every positive juice ended in a zero or five (i.e. +140, +145, +150, +155) and there would be a lot of the same lines tied...So remember the tie-breaker would be the team with the better record...

Yeah last night was one of those nights where all 3 dogs were really close in juice and line-movements during the day could change things significantly depending on when you bet them...

Remember I am doing this for tracking purposes only...

 

[incomeraise]

thanks brewers, i can tell u are scared of people following this system and then blaming u if anything goes wrong....dont worry i know u said it many times, and as far as i am concerned, i am actually following it, and so far so good...will see how long it goes...but the thing is right now, favorite wins a lot already, so i believe there will be a time when dogs win more to make things even which should maybe reduce the money we ll make out of it, but will also reduce the risk,...just y opinion and thanks for the input

Since I started the season taking the OPENING lines from OTK's head-to-head thread for simplicity sake (http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=629082 ), I figured I'd be consistent and keep using those opening lines all season long...I believe they come out before midnight or 1 a.m. EST...So I have been using opening lines all season long...So if you look at every line posted, except for the ones he left out here and there, I took them from the thread 99% of the time...

Back before Pinnacle came around, almost every positive juice ended in a zero or five (i.e. +140, +145, +150, +155) and there would be a lot of the same lines tied...So remember the tie-breaker would be the team with the better record...

Yeah last night was one of those nights where all 3 dogs were really close in juice and line-movements during the day could change things significantly depending on when you bet them...

Remember I am doing this for tracking purposes only...

 

[jzaharat]

B7
Thanks for keeping up the tracking of this system. As Snoman said above it's very difficult to say no to it. But I gatta tell you that your numbers are a bit misleading, and I know not on purpose !!!

Instead of 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64 etc.. it should be 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, 96.....
The 3rd bet should be 3 units instead of 4 as the first 2 bets total 3 units.. This would have made you max unit bet at 192 ($1920) instead of 256.($2560).
So while there would still be a HUGE profit, it wouldn't be as much as the $71K you have thus far with the 4 unit instead of 3 unit bet. I would like to see the actual difference but that would be way too much work for anyone to go back and track.

I'm going to start this with $1 units for a bit and see how it goes, figure I'll make an arbetrary stop loss point of 6 or 7 losses.

I think I'm also going to start the TIE chase as well. Taking the top 15 'tie likely' teams should come close to 30% winners. Martingaling should turn a decent profit without the imminent fear of a budget crushing bet like we have in this system. Pitsburgh along is Money with the ties so far.

Appreciate your work.

JZ

 

[Snoman13]

I'm working on getting an Excel sheet working for this system, but having trouble finding websites that archive lines for seasons/games past. Any help there would be much appreciated. PM if someone has it and doesn't want to clutter up this thread anymore than we all are now %^_

Instead of 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64 etc.. it should be 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, 96.....

The system doubles a losing play, not sum the previous losing streak.

You do bring up the point of how this system could be tweaked to provide a better ROI%, which is what I'm hoping my spreadsheet will help us be able to do.

 

[brewers7]

I agree with snoman...That would be one of the first tweaks I would make immediately, going 1-2-3-6, instead of in its current form, a strict martingale system where you double-up at every level...

Another possible tweak would be like this (because of what happened last night when you have the top 2 lines so very close):

If the #1 play is like, say, 32 units, and the #2 play is 4 units, and the top dogs are, say, +155 and +153 and have been switching all day between which is bigger and which is smaller, well those numbers are so close that a consideration to be made would be to add 32 units and 4 units (36), divide that by 2 (18 units), and make the #1 and #2 plays 18 units each, just in case the #1 loses and the #2 hits that night...

 

[jzaharat]

That's also a good plan to limit risk and increase the odds of a pay out, as does my 1,2,3,6 suggestion instead of 1,2,4,8. Though it lowers the winnings, it also lowers the risk to the bankroll.

I've been tracking ties over the last 9 game days, tonight with be the 10th day and thus far with the 14 teams i've chosen as of last night is running at over 29% with a net gain of 8.7 units, ans has been very gentle on the bankroll. No streak has gone over 4 "non tie" games... I'm obviously avoiding Phoenix.

I'll post the teams and the numbers after tonight's games if anyone's interested.

JZ

 

[brewers7]

-----------------------------------

Day 43:

#1 Van +170 (2 units)-W
#2 Fla +141 (1 unit)---L
#3 Atl +121 (1 unit)---L
#4 Chi +114 (1 unit)---W
#5 Cal +113 (1 unit)---W
#6 Ott +113 (1 unit)---L


3-3, +$267
Overall: 96-150, +$71,598

$5 base bet would be up $3579.90 after 43 days...
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[brewers7]

-----------------------------------

Day 44:

#1 Fla +195 (2 units)--L
#2 NYI +150 (2 units)--L
#3 Phi +135 (2 units)--W
#4 Phoe +127 (1 unit)--L
#5 Stl +112 (1 unit)--W
#6 Nash +107 (1 unit)--L

2-4, -$218
Overall: 98-154, +$71,380

$5 base bet would be up $3569 after 44 days...
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[brewers7]

Used lines for Day 44 from 7:00 EST (OTK not posting opening lines the last few days in his thread)...So, I may as well post them in here daily myseld or get a volunteer...

Below are the opening lines for Day 45 (2 games are missing)...If anyone sees the lines for the 2 missing games before I do, feel free to post them and if anyone wants to volunteer to post the opening lines, then feel free to do so)...
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o> </o>
Sat 11/22 51 <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Vancouver</st1lace></st1:City> Canucks +1.5 -225 +138 OVER 5.5 +120 <o></o>
<st1:time Hour="11" Minute="5">11:05 AM</st1:time> 52 <st1:City><st1lace>Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City> Penguins -1.5 +205 -148 UNDER 5.5 -130
<o> </o>
Sat 11/22 53 <st1:State><st1lace>New York</st1lace></st1:State> Rangers +1.5 -260 +105 OVER 5 -115 <o></o>
12:05 PM 54 <st1:City><st1lace>Ottawa</st1lace></st1:City> Senators -1.5 +240 -115 UNDER 5 +105
<o> </o>
Sat 11/22 55 <st1:State><st1lace>New York</st1lace></st1:State> Islanders +1.5 -135 +202 OVER 5.5 -103 <o></o>
<st1:time Hour="16" Minute="5">04:05 PM</st1:time> 56 <st1:City><st1lace>Buffalo</st1lace></st1:City> Sabres -1.5 +125 -222 UNDER 5.5 -107
<o> </o>
Sat 11/22 57 <st1:City><st1lace>Chicago</st1lace></st1:City> Blackhawks -1.5 +214 -125 OVER 6 +100 <o></o>
<st1:time Hour="16" Minute="5">04:05 PM</st1:time> 58 <st1:City><st1lace>Toronto</st1lace></st1:City> Maple Leafs +1.5 -234 +115 UNDER 6 -110
<o> </o>
Sat 11/22 59 <st1:City><st1lace>Columbus</st1lace></st1:City> Blue Jackets +1.5 -260 +105 OVER 5.5 -103 <o></o>
<st1:time Hour="16" Minute="5">04:05 PM</st1:time> 60 <st1:City><st1lace>Atlanta</st1lace></st1:City> Thrashers -1.5 +240 -115 UNDER 5.5 -107
<o> </o>
Sat 11/22 61 <st1:City><st1lace>Phoenix</st1lace></st1:City> Coyotes +1.5 -193 +153 OVER 5.5 -105 <o></o>
<st1:time Hour="16" Minute="5">04:05 PM 62</st1:time> <st1:City><st1lace>Philadelphia</st1lace></st1:City> Flyers -1.5 +180 -163 UNDER 5.5 -105
<o> </o>
Sat 11/22 63 <st1:City><st1lace>Boston</st1lace></st1:City> Bruins +1.5 -215 +140 OVER 5.5 +105 <o></o>
<st1:time Hour="16" Minute="35">04:35 PM 64</st1:time> <st1:City><st1lace>Montreal</st1lace></st1:City> Canadiens -1.5 +195 -150 UNDER 5.5 -115
<o> </o>
Sat 11/22 67 <st1:City><st1lace>St. Louis</st1lace></st1:City> Blues +1.5 -150 +206 OVER 5 -120 <o></o>
<st1:time Hour="17" Minute="5">05:05 PM 68</st1:time> <st1:State><st1lace>Minnesota</st1lace></st1:State> Wild -1.5 +140 -226 UNDER 5 +110
<o> </o>
Sat 11/22 69 <st1:City><st1lace>Detroit</st1lace></st1:City> Red Wings -1.5 +203 -142 OVER 5.5 +110 <o></o>
<st1:time Hour="19" Minute="5">07:05 PM 70</st1:time> <st1:City><st1lace>Calgary</st1lace></st1:City> Flames +1.5 -223 +132 UNDER 5.5 -120
<o> </o>
Sat 11/22 73 <st1:State><st1lace>Colorado</st1lace></st1:State> Avalanche +1.5 -255 +110 OVER 5.5 -105 <o></o>
<st1:time Hour="19" Minute="35">07:35 PM 74</st1:time> <st1:City><st1lace>Los Angeles</st1lace></st1:City> Kings -1.5 +235 -120 UNDER 5.5 -105

 

[brewers7]

Sat 11/22 65 <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Anaheim</st1lace></st1:City> Ducks +1.5 -240 +120 OVER 5.5 +105 <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<st1:time Hour="17" Minute="5">05:05 PM 66</st1:time> <st1:City><st1lace>Dallas</st1lace></st1:City> Stars -1.5 +220 -130 UNDER 5.5 -115
<o> </o>
Sat 11/22 71 <st1:State><st1lace>Washington</st1lace></st1:State> Capitals +1.5 -175 +170 OVER 5.5 +101 <o></o>
<st1:time Hour="19" Minute="35">07:35 PM 72</st1:time> <st1:City><st1lace>San Jose</st1lace></st1:City> Sharks -1.5 +165 -180 UNDER 5.5 -111
<o> </o>
Sat 11/22 91 Away Goals +4.5 -109 +228 OVER 68 -105 <o></o>
11:05 AM 92 Home Goals -4.5 -101 -248 UNDER 68 -105

 

[dirtymoose]

have you been making these bets your self?
or just something you are doing for research?

I haven't been watching this from the start.
do you also post the daily plays?

 

[brewers7]

have you been making these bets your self?
or just something you are doing for research?

I haven't been watching this from the start.
do you also post the daily plays?

Tracking purposes only for me...Plays are self-explanatory based on the system...


-----------------------------------

Day 45:

#1 Stl +206 (4 units)---W
#2 NYI +202 (4 units)--W
#3 Was +170 (2 units)--L
#4 Phoe +153 (2 units)-L
#5 Bos +140 (1 unit)---W
#6 Van +138 (1 unit)---W
#7 Cal +132 (1 unit)---L
#8 Ana +120 (1 unit)---W
#9 Tor +115 (1 unit)---L
#10 Colo +110 (1 unit)--W
#11 NYR +105 (1 unit)--L
#12 Clm +105 (1 unit)---W

7-5, +$1545
Overall: 105-159, +$72,925

$5 base bet would be up $3646.25 after 45 days...
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[brewers7]

Sun 11/23 1 <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Nashville</st1lace></st1:City> Predators +1.5 -212 +132 OVER 5.5 -120 <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<st1:time Minute="5" Hour="12">12:05 PM</st1:time> 2 <st1:City><st1lace>Carolina</st1lace></st1:City> Hurricanes -1.5 +192 -142 UNDER 5.5 +110
<o> </o>
Sun 11/23 3 <st1:State><st1lace>New Jersey</st1lace></st1:State> Devils +1.5 -256 +110 OVER 5.5 +120 <o></o>
02:05 PM 4 Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 +236 -120 UNDER 5.5 -130


-----------------------------------

Day 46:

#1 Nash +132 (4 units)--
#2 NJ +110 (4 units)----


Three 2-unit plays to carry over...

 

[brewers7]

-----------------------------------

Day 46:

#1 Nash +132 (4 units)--W
#2 NJ +110 (4 units)----W

Three 2-unit plays to carry over...

2-0, +$968
Overall: 107-159, +$73,893

$5 base bet would be up $3694.65 after 46 days...
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[brewers7]

Mon 11/24 51 <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Phoenix</st1lace></st1:City> Coyotes +1.5 -220 +136 OVER 5 -118 <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
04:05 PM 52 <st1:State><st1lace>New York</st1lace></st1:State> Rangers -1.5 +200 -146 UNDER 5 +108
<o> </o>
Mon 11/24 53 <st1:City><st1lace>Dallas</st1lace></st1:City> Stars +1.5 -223 +135 OVER 5.5 -113 <o></o>
04:05 PM 54 <st1:City><st1lace>Philadelphia</st1lace></st1:City> Flyers -1.5 +203 -145 UNDER 5.5 +103
<o> </o>
Mon 11/24 55 <st1:State><st1lace>New York</st1lace></st1:State> Islanders +1.5 -141 +200 OVER 5.5 +108 <o></o>
<st1:time Minute="35" Hour="16">04:35 PM</st1:time> 56 <st1:City><st1lace>Montreal</st1lace></st1:City> Canadiens -1.5 +131 -220 UNDER 5.5 -118
<o> </o>
Mon 11/24 57 <st1:City><st1lace>Carolina</st1lace></st1:City> Hurricanes +1.5 -258 +100 OVER 5.5 +105 <o></o>
<st1:time Minute="35" Hour="16">04:35 PM</st1:time> 58 <st1:State><st1lace>Florida</st1lace></st1:State> Panthers -1.5 +238 -110 UNDER 5.5 -115
<o> </o>
Mon 11/24 59 <st1:State><st1lace>Washington</st1lace></st1:State> Capitals +1.5 -196 +156 OVER 5.5 +126 <o></o>
<st1:time Minute="5" Hour="17">05:05 PM</st1:time> 60 <st1:State><st1lace>Minnesota</st1lace></st1:State> Wild -1.5 +181 -166 UNDER 5.5 -136
<o> </o>
Mon 11/24 61 <st1:City><st1lace>Detroit</st1lace></st1:City> Red Wings -1.5 +196 -150 OVER 5.5 -105 <o></o>
<st1:time Minute="5" Hour="19">07:05 PM 62</st1:time> <st1:City><st1lace>Vancouver</st1lace></st1:City> Canucks +1.5 -216 +140 UNDER 5.5 -105
<o> </o>
Mon 11/24 63 <st1:State><st1lace>Colorado</st1lace></st1:State> Avalanche +1.5 -206 +141 OVER 5.5 +117 <o></o>
<st1:time Minute="5" Hour="19">07:05 PM 64</st1:time> <st1:City><st1lace>Anaheim</st1lace></st1:City> Ducks -1.5 +186 -151 UNDER 5.5 -127
<o> </o>
Mon 11/24 91 Away Goals +2.5 +103 +195 OVER 38 -123 <o></o>
04:05 PM 92 Home Goals -2.5 -113 -215 UNDER 38 +113

-----------------------------------

I decided several weeks back not to play anything under +105

Day 47:

#1 Was +156 (2 units)--
#2 Colo +141 (2 units)--
#3 Van +140 (2 units)--
#4 Phoe +136 (1 unit)--
#5 Mon +131 (1 unit)--