ChampionsLeague Fade

[chriscol]

I ll try a new system this season.
Over the last seasons i had always the feeling the teams of the top leagues involved in the champ league struggle the weekend before the ECL matches. They often rest players or are already focused on the game ahead.
it makes no sense to try the same in the weaker leagues like Port or scotland as the big team might be able to beat the others even with a B-team.
I cannot proove it as i ve not calculated it way back, but i had always the idea to try it. The first games have shown already the same pattern. So the rules are simple: I ll fade every team from the big leagues Italy, Spain, Germany, England against the spread in games on the weekend before (as long as they have something to play for in ECL). Every play risking one unit.
Let s give it a shot

Plays for this weekend

Spain

Betis - Real: Betis +0.5 @ 1.89
Barca-Valencia: No play as both are involved

England

Liverpool-Tottenham: Tottenham +0.5,+1 @ 2.11
Arsenal- Sheffield: Sheffield +1.5,+2 @ 2.13
Fulham- CHelsea: FUlham +1,+1.5 @ 1.92
Reading- ManU: Reading +1 @ 1.90

Italy:

Livorno-Milan: Livorn +0.5,+1 @ 2.05
Inter- CHievo: CHievo +1.5 @ 1.93
PaRMA- AS Roma : Parma +0.5 @ 1.91

Germany:

München- Aachen: Aachen +1.5,+2 @ 1.833
Hamburg- Bremen: No play as bot are involved

Let s see how it goes

 

[joeyfitzclick]

Good luck ! I like your thinking.

 

[quantumleap]

I like this too chris. It seems that whenever I find a team is resting players that they do not do well.

I especially like the Betis/Real pick. I think I'll look at that one too.

Good luck.

 

[Hooligans]

any thoughts on the real madrid game mate? cheers! :toast:

 

[Hooligans]

Well i will take my chances straight up on the draw +225 for (2 units) iasports

betis vs real :toast:

 

[Hooligans]

5 minutes into the game and real madrid scored ucking:

 

[chriscol]

some big wins of the favs, but still only
4-5 -1.287

lets see how it goes in two weeks

 

[averick]

Like your way of thinking chris.
Couple of late goals from chievo (86' , 88'), but a win's a win.
Hope to see more fades from you.

 

[chriscol]

welcome to the forum averick.
hope you enjoy ballack over there in chelsea

 

[averick]

Thanks chris.

I do think ballack has much less pitch presence over here at chelsea, and this isn't benefiting chelsea.

Many people have noted that when lampard and ballack play together none of them dare to make the runs into the penalty area. Ballack is now suspended and you can see lampard having a more attacking role (at least for the fulham game).

Mourinho has abit to do in the midfield area if chelsea are to become a european force.

 

[JackDee]

Chriscol, if it's of any worth I 've backtested this system for my home league and unfortunately it posits no advantage for either the pre or post cl or uefa game bet. All in all it yields some very peculiar results and I 've not taken the time to finetune it. But like I said that's just for the greek league for the past fifteen or so years.

bol.

 

[chriscol]

Chriscol, if it's of any worth I 've backtested this system for my home league and unfortunately it posits no advantage for either the pre or post cl or uefa game bet. All in all it yields some very peculiar results and I 've not taken the time to finetune it. But like I said that's just for the greek league for the past fifteen or so years.

bol.

i have a feeling that my "fine tuning" of fading only the teams from the big lragues can prrofe positive. In leagues like your home league or portugal, belgium, holland .... the top teams are way too stronger than 80 % of the rest and it often doesnt matter if they are resting players.
But ill give it a shot at least thru the groupe stage. I really think it was very unusual, especially for the EPL teams to cover some big hdcs before the CL. BUt it s all part of the game...

 

[averick]

Well it was arsenal against Sheffield. I guess there's no surprise in a big win. And if Jenas converted his chance just 1 min before Gonzalez scored it would definitely be a very different story.

Is there a trend whereby teams with CL in midweek find it harder to cover the handicap when they are away instead of at home? Just a suggestion.

 

[chriscol]

some big wins of the favs, but still only
4-5 -1.287

lets see how it goes in two weeks

second week of testing the system to fade all cl teams at the weekend before the cl in their domestic leagues:

Germany

München-Berlin: Berlin +1,+1.5 @ 1.87
Hamburg- Schalke: Schalke pk,+0.5 @ 2.02
Bochum-Bremen: Bochum +0.5,+1 @ 2.00

Spain

Getafe- Real: Getafe +0.5@ 2.09
Barca- Sevilla: Sevilla +0.5,+1 @ 1.89
Celta Vigo-Valencia: Celta Vigo +0.5 @ 1.89

England

Wigan-Manu: WIgan +0.5 @ 1.85
Arsenal-Watford: Watford +1.5,+2 @ 2.02
Liverpool-Blackburn: Blackburn +1 @ 1.95
Reading-CHelsea: Reading +1 @ 1.89

Italy:

Sampdoria- Milan: Sampdoria +0.5 @ 2.04
Inter- Catania: Catania +1.5,+2 @ 1.88
Reggina- ROma: Reggina +0.5 @ 2.13

 

[quantumleap]

If you'll notice, there is only 1 home dog of +1 and that is Reading against Chelsea. Bochum is at +0.75 but all the rest are no better than +0.5. It seems the linesmakers may know something about road favorites before the CL matches.

 

[chriscol]

to be honest, normally i like to fade some of the big teams "in reality" (remember this is a test only), but at these lines there is not much i really like. you might me right quantum, that they have adjusted, but we will see...interesting

 

[acw]

England

Wigan-Manu: WIgan +0.5 @ 1.85

Yamm Yammy. Someone just bet on MU with me giving 1 goal.
Which book had this sh*t price up?

 

[chriscol]

No real trend so far saturday went 4-4 with sunday pending

second week of testing the system to fade all cl teams at the weekend before the cl in their domestic leagues:

Germany

München-Berlin: Berlin +1,+1.5 @ 1.87 loss (2-4)
Hamburg- Schalke: Schalke pk,+0.5 @ 2.02 win (2-1)
Bochum-Bremen: Bochum +0.5,+1 @ 2.00 loss (0-6)

Spain

Getafe- Real: Getafe +0.5@ 2.09 win (1-0)
Barca- Sevilla: Sevilla +0.5,+1 @ 1.89
Celta Vigo-Valencia: Celta Vigo +0.5 @ 1.89

England

Wigan-Manu: WIgan +0.5 @ 1.85 (loss 1-3)
Arsenal-Watford: Watford +1.5,+2 @ 2.02 (loss 0-3)
Liverpool-Blackburn: Blackburn +1 @ 1.95 (win 1-1)
Reading-CHelsea: Reading +1 @ 1.89 (push 0-1)

Italy:

Sampdoria- Milan: Sampdoria +0.5 @ 2.04 (win 1-1)
Inter- Catania: Catania +1.5,+2 @ 1.88
Reggina- ROma: Reggina +0.5 @ 2.13

 

[chriscol]

sunday was much better for the fade (the italian team seem to understand my theory much better than arsenal,ManU and Barca who are in for 6 of the 10 fav covers aftzer 2 weeks)

total of week 2: 7-5 +2.00 units

brings the system now to 11-10 +0.713

 

[chriscol]

going in the third weekend of the fade

England

Sheffield- CHelsea: Sheffield +1.5 @ 1.90
ARsenal-Everton: Everton +1.5 @ 1.84
Liverpool- Aston Villa: Aston Villa +1 @ 1.84
Bolton- ManU: Bolton +0.5 @ 2.02

Spain:

Santander-Valencia: Santander +0.5 @ 1.90
Barca- Huelva: Huelva +1.5,+2 @ 1.92
Gimnastic- Real: Gimnastic +1 @ 2.12

Germany:

München- Frankfurt: Frankfurt +1.5 @ 1.93
Hamburg- Hannover: Hannover +0.5,+1 @2.03

Italy:

Udinese-Roma: Udinese pk @ 1.91