Championship Monday Service Plays 4/4/11

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Rx.com Mod Team has created this Service Play sub-forum in order to supply an area for Rx Service Play Posters to expand upon their posting topics without creating a logjam in the main forum where the three principle threads are maintained..

Posters can track services here if they care to but we will need any trackers to do so in an accurate and civil manner. We did not create this area for posters to ridicule or bash any services..

You can also discuss who is hot and who is not. The general state of the pay for plays industry and any other subject or topic related to service plays.

You can also create individual threads about specific services and discuss them freely but civilly. Again bashing and abusive treatment of any services will not be tolerated.

Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post ther daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

The Rx.com will not tolerate posters that post false records of any services they track. Please be truthful if you decide to track a particular service.

Lastly The Rx Moderators are appealing to you our everyday posters to report any promotional threads or posts that are made by services or individual touts. No links or contact information to an individual service will be allowed. Just the name of the service. Please report any threads or posts that are promotional attempts by services and touts to use this forum to promote themselves..

Posters can easily report a promotional post by using the triangular Report-a-Post Icon at the bottom left of all post boxes. The poster name of any poster who reports a post that is out of line will be kept strictly confidential.

I will leave this thread open for a month to take questions and do my best to answer them. I will check in daily but am off on Wednesday and Thursday.

I hope this additional Service Play Forum will satisfy those posters that would like to widen the scope of topics relating to service plays and the industry in general to have their own threads. Mods will be liberal as possible regarding topics but this forum was specifically created to allow you more freedom to express your ideas regarding service plays and related subject matter. No off topic threads will be allowed.

Thank you, wilheim




TheRX.com Policy on Posting Handicapper Plays:
In the poster agreement that all posters agree to when signing up, posters have agreed to NOT post copyrighted information.
Some handicappers do not mind having their plays posted, If we are asked by any company to not let their information be posted here, we will comply with the request and remove the information if we see it.
For The Record.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To all services and professional handicappers. I am only going to be editing posts where your copyrighted write-ups are involved. Please do not email me if someone simply posts so and so likes xyz team plus or minus so many points only.
Thank you, wilheim.......

We have received requests from the following companies:
Do not post any copywritten info from the following servvices.

Apple Handicappers
PlusLineSports-
PowerPlay Wins
Pregame.com
The Real Animal
THELOCKOFTHEDAY
Right Angle Sports (RAS)
Tony Karpinski and 3G-Sports
Discreat Cat (do not post at all..)
Dr. Bob Sports
Dr. guru sports
madduxsports
Red Zone Sports
Dennis Hill
Peter Gold at VI
Strike Point Sports
Vegas Sports Informer
Winning Points/Sports Reporter
ASA, ASA Inc’s or American Sports Analysts
Sal Bansa/sportspicks1019
Mikelineback
Larry Ness
Al McMordie
zen_gambler
Tom Stryker
Lenny Delgenio
Scott Spreitzer
Matt Fargo
@ntonwins
Doc's Sports Services
Robert Ferringo
Pacific (Pac Star) Sports
The Prez
Mike Rose
LT Profits
Pregame.- which include (shaker,law,o'shea,jwip,creole,nover,rocketman,d'angelo,vrunner)
Alex Smart
JB Sports
ATS Consultants
Ken Jenkins
AJ Apollo
Jim Avery
Jim Kruger
Paul Stone
Ross Benjamin
Dave Cokin
Tony George
Fred Wallin
Rocky Atkinson
Jorge Gonzalez
Greg DiPalma
Vernon Croy
Ron Raymond
Dennis Macklin
Ben Lewis
Lucky Lester
Bruce Marshall
Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers)
Ben Burns
Fairway Jay
EZ Winners
Pointwise Sports
Pro Sports Info
Steve Merril SportsAlatex Sports
Tennessee Valley Sports
Trushel Sports Consulting
Sports Memo Crew which include:
Rob Veno,Brent Crow,Erin Rynning,Donnie Black,Marty Otto,Jared Klein,David Jones,Ed Cash
Sixth Sense Sports
Marc Lawrence, and/or
Playbook, and/or
Preferred Picks
Boxslayer
PayneInsider
Killersportslive
jumperjack (keith)
Oskiem Sports
-------

****Please note we can post ONLY Picks for the services above - NO WRITE - UPS. All other services not on this list can be posted in any fashion. GL!​

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday, April 4, 2011 - 9:23 PM ET

(8) Butler

(28-9, 13-5 Horizon)

(3) Connecticut

(31-9, 9-9 Big East)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bulldogs underdogs vs. Huskies
By: Michael Robinson

If only one Cinderella can go to the ball, it might as well be coach Brad Stevens and his Butler Bulldogs. They meet the Connecticut Huskies for the NCAA men’s basketball national championship at Houston’s Reliant Stadium. CBS will televise the event starting at 6:23 p.m. (PT).

The Don Best Sports odds screen has Connecticut as a 3½-point favorite, with the total set at 129 points.

Butler (28-9 straight-up, 20-13-2 against the spread) advanced by beating 11th seed VCU 70-62 as 3½-point favorites. It was a battle marked by grit and hard work by each school. Both teams shot under 40 percent from the floor, but Butler’s 46-30 advantage on the glass was a big reason for the win.

Guard Shelvin Mack scored 24 points for Butler on 8-of-11 from the floor, including 5-of-6 from beyond the arc. Forward Jamie Skeen had 27 points for VCU, showing a very nice inside and outside game.

The 132 combined points scored snuck just ‘over’ the 131½-point total. Late Butler free throws after intentional fouls were the difference. The ‘over’ is 3-2 for Butler this tournament.

Butler, which has now won 14 straight games, is 7-0 ATS dating back to the start of the Horizon League tournament.

Eighth-seed Butler is trying to match the 1985 Villanova Wildcats as the lowest-seeded school to capture the title. Villanova had the huge upset over Patrick Ewing’s Georgetown squad that was looking for back-to-back titles.

Butler lost 61-59 to Duke in thrilling fashion in last year’s championship game, but easily ‘covered’ the seven-point spread. That game also went ‘under’ the 128 ½-point total.

Michigan’s ‘Fab Five’ teams in the early 90s were the last to lose consecutive title games. The 1998 Kentucky squad was the last to win the national championship after losing in the title game the year before.

The No. 3 seed Huskies (31-9 SU, 22-12 ATS) had the more high profile Final Four game, beating Kentucky 56-55 as two-point underdogs.

The 111 combined points scored went way ‘under’ the 138 ½-point total. The ‘under’ is 4-1 for Connecticut in this tournament, with the defense allowing just 59 PPG.

Kentucky shot just 33.9 percent from the floor with freshman point guard Brandon Knight a dismal 6-of-23. The team converting just 4-of-12 from the line also really hurt.

Kentucky trailed 31-21 at halftime, its lowest first-half output of the season. However, coach John Calipari’s guys clawed back in the second half, even taking some small leads. But Kentucky was the more tired team down the stretch with just seven players seeing action.

Connecticut All-American point guard Kemba Walker had to work for his 18 points. He was 6-of-15 from the field and 1-of-5 from beyond the arc. The entire squad struggled from long range (1-of-12), which needs to improve Monday night.

Connecticut has won 10 straight contests starting with winning the Big East Tournament as a No. 9 seed. The only ‘cover’ failure was a 65-63 win over Arizona in the Elite Eight as 3½-point favorites.

The Huskies are perfect outside of Big East regular season play, going 22-0 SU and 15-1 ATS.

Coach Jim Calhoun is looking to join some elite company by winning his third national title (1999 and 2004 the others). Only John Wooden, Mike Krzyzewski, Adolph Rupp and Bobby Knight have won three or more.

The Monday night matchups will be exciting to watch. Mack (16.1 PPG) is averaging 23.5 PPG in his last four and is much stronger physically than Walker. Walker (23.7 PPG) has the quickness advantage and will play a lot of off-guard with freshman Shabazz Napier handling the ball.

Connecticut has good size up front with starters Alex Oriakhi and Roscoe Smith, plus Charles Okwandu off the bench. Matt Howard, Butler’s big man who is averaging 16.7 PPG, is as crafty as they come drawing fouls around the basket. He had 12 free throw attempts last game and made 11.

The key could be freshman guard Jeremy Lamb (11.1 PPG). He’s been a consistent second scorer this tourney at 17 PPG. He also provides a big matchup problem for Butler with his athleticism and 6-foot-5 length.

Neither team is reporting any significant injuries.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Butler vs. UConn
By Brian Edwards

The field of 68 for the 2011 NCAA Tournament has been reduced to two, Butler and Connecticut, who will go at it for (at least) 40 minutes until one team is left standing and cutting the nets down Monday night at Reliant Stadium in Houston.

Most betting shops opened UConn (31-9 straight up, 22-12 against the spread) as a four-point favorite, but that number was down to 3½ within a half-hour of betting late Saturday night. The total started at 129½ but was reduced to 128½ by Sunday afternoon. Gamblers can take the Bulldogs to win outright for a plus-155 return (risk $100 to win $155).

Butler (28-9 SU, 20-13-2 ATS) has been a live underdog all season long. In fact, the Bulldogs have won outright in seven consecutive games as underdogs. They own an 8-1-1 spread record in 10 such situations.

Brad Stevens’ squad advanced to the national-championship game for the second straight year by dismantling Virginia Commonwealth 70-62 as a 3½-point favorite in Saturday’s national semifinals. As usual, junior guard Shelvin Mack and senior power forward Matt Howard led the way.

Mack was on fire, draining 5-of-6 attempts from 3-point range and 8-of-11 overall shots. He finished with a team-high 24 points and six rebounds. Even on a bad shooting night, Howard managed 17 points, eight boards, two assists, two steals and one blocked shot.

The unsung hero was reserve senior guard Zach Hahn, who had provided a huge boost with a pair of timely 3-pointers in an Elite Eight win over Florida seven days before. This time around with VCU leading five minutes into the second half, Hahn scored eight straight points with a pair of 3’s and a gorgeous reverse layup in traffic.

All three buckets over a 104-second span put Butler back in the lead. The last, the layup on a baseline drive, put the Bulldogs in front for good. Mack would follow Hahn’s scoring surge with seven consecutive points to create some separation from the Rams, who would get no closer than four the rest of the way.

Jamie Skeen scored a game-high 27 points for VCU and Brandon Burgess added 15 points and nine rebounds. However, senior point guard Joey Rodriguez struggled with just three points on 1-of-8 shooting. To Rodriguez’s credit, he did dish out eight assists compared to just two turnovers.

VCU reserve guard Brandon Rozzell, who had been instant offense off the bench throughout the school’s improbable run to its first Final Four, couldn’t buy a bucket, either. Rozzell scored just two points, missing all three of his attempts from beyond the arc.

Rozzell and Rodriguez’s shooting woes weren’t without cause. Butler has played incredible perimeter defense throughout the tournament. In fact, Shawn Vanzant and Ronald Nored’s ‘D’ has forced UF’s Erving Walker and Rodriguez to shoot a combined 2-for-18 in the last two games.

Jim Calhoun’s team is back in the NCAA finals for the third time in his distinguished career. He won both previous times, upsetting Duke in 1999 and beating Ga. Tech in 2004. But this has to be his proudest hour, as he’s taken this team to unexpected heights in the wake of a suspension and NCAA violations.

UConn’s Kemba Walker has been the catalyst all year and nothing was different in Saturday’s win over Kentucky by a 56-55 count as a two-point underdog. Walker finished with 18 points, seven assists, six rebounds and two steals. Jeremy Lamb, the freshman who has been dynamite in March (and beyond), produced 12 points, nine board and four assists.

UConn raced out to a 31-21 lead at halftime, but UK promptly went on an 8-0 run to start the second stanza. It was a nip-and-tuck affair from there, but the Huskies pulled away with a 6-0 run to give them a 54-48 advantage at the 2:20 mark.

The Wildcats would slice the deficit in half on a DeAndre Liggins’ trey, but his 3-ball for the lead with five ticks remaining was off the mark. Shabazz Napier would knock down a pair of free throws to put the game on ice for UConn.

The 111 combined points easily stayed ‘under’ the 139-point tally for UConn-UK. The Huskies have now seen the ‘under’ go 19-14-1 overall, 5-1 in their last six outings. On the flip side, the ‘over’ has hit at a 20-14-1 overall clip in Butler games.

Since losing seven of its last 11 regular-season games, UConn has won 10 in a row while posting a lucrative 9-1 ATS record. As single-digit favorites this season, the Huskies are 6-8 versus the number.

Tip-off is scheduled for 9:20 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

We usually don’t mention ATS stats for a team on a neutral court, but we’d be remiss if we didn’t note UConn’s incredible 13-0 straight-up record in such contests this year. The Huskies won all three games at the Maui Classic, all five at the Big East Tournament at MSG and all five in the NCAA Tournament so far. Butler has won nine in a row on neutral floors but did fall against Duke earlier this year at the Izod Center in East Rutherford, N.J.

Going into Saturday’s games, Butler’s Mack had plus-750 odds to win Most Outstanding Player honors (risk $100 to win $750). Sportsbook.com has updated its odds for this bet with only three wagering options: Walker (+125), the field (+175) and Howard (+225).

Going into its Elite Eight showdown against Florida, Butler’s future number was 10/1.

As of Sunday afternoon, Sportsbook.com had not yet posted all of the props that it will eventually have available, but the website did have its numbers up for the player who will score the first points of the game. Walker is the favorite with plus-350 odds (risk $100 to win $350), while Howard and Mack have the second-shortest odds (+400). The odds for other players include UConn’s Lamb (+500), Butler’s Andrew Smith (+600), UConn’s Alex Oriakhi (+700) and Butler’s Vanzant (+700).

Mack drew first blood for Butler against VCU with a 3-pointer, hooking up his backers with a plus-400 payout at most spots.

We mentioned Vanzant’s defensive contributions against VCU, but he also scored 11 points. In prop bets, Vanzant’s points were a 1½-point underdog vs. the points of Rodriguez. This was an easy winner for Vanzant backers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Basketball Picks

Butler vs. Connecticut

The Bulldogs look to take advantage of a Connecticut team that is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite from 1 to 6 1/2 points. Butler is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Huskies favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Butler (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's games.
<table id="table3" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="4"><tbody><tr> <td style="height: 38px; width: 566px;">MONDAY, APRIL 4
Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST (4/3)</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 601-602: Butler vs. Connecticut (9:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 74.310; Connecticut 75.206
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 1
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Butler (+3 1/2)</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 5px;" width="566">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 5px;" width="566">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 5px;" width="566">
</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NCAA CBB

Season
Straight Up: 3871-1336 (.743)
ATS: 1812-1845 (.495)
ATS Vary Units: 5006-5128 (.494)
Over/Under: 1791-1820 (.496)
Over/Under Vary Units: 2306-2476 (.482)

NCAA Tournament
National Championship at Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX
Connecticut 68, Butler 64

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Betting: LA Kings visit San Jose Sharks
By: Brad Young

A late-season matchup between a pair of Pacific Division rivals highlights Monday’s National Hockey League action when Los Angeles (45-27-4-2) visits San Jose (46-23-4-5).

The Kings are currently locked in a tight battle with Phoenix for the fourth seed in the Western Conference standings, entering the weekend with 96 points. The team that finishes fourth will get home-ice advantage for the first-round series.

The Sharks presently find themselves in second place, 12 points behind Vancouver. However, San Jose is just a point ahead of hard-charging Detroit in the standings as the regular season starts to wind down.

Versus will provide coverage of Monday’s Pacific Division matchup beginning at 7:00 p.m. PT from San Jose’s HP Pavilion.

Los Angeles improved to 5-1 its last six games after skating past Dallas Saturday as 128 home ‘chalk,’ 3-1. The combined four goals failed to topple the five-goal closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 7-1 the previous eight outings.

The game was tied heading into the third period before the Kings put the contest away. Defenseman Matt Greene scored the go-ahead goal, just his sixth of the season, while Wayne Simmonds had a goal and an assist and Dustin Brown also lit the lamp. Goaltender Jonathan Quick stonewalled 24 shots in the victory. Los Angeles finished the contest with advantages in faceoffs won, 33-22, and shots on goal, 32-25.

The Kings are 7-2 their last nine games against Pacific Division opponents, while the ‘under’ is 11-4-1 the previous 16 matchups. Los Angeles is now 6-2 its past eight outings following a victory.

San Jose is riding a three-game winning streak after doubling-up Anaheim Saturday as a 157 home favorite, 4-2. The combined six goals eclipsed the 5½-goal closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 5-1 the past six performances.

The Sharks rallied from a two-goal deficit with two goals in each the second and third periods. Devin Setoguchi scored the tiebreaking goal, while Patrick Marleau scored twice and Dany Heatley also lit the lamp.

San Jose has now reached the 100-point mark for the fifth straight season. The Sharks can clinch their fourth consecutive division crown with a victory over the Kings. San Jose concluded the contest with advantages in faceoffs won, 29-22, and shots on goal, 33-22.

The Sharks have seen the ‘over’ go 8-1-2 their last 11 games versus Western Conference teams. San Jose is now 20-6 its past 26 games following a victory.

Los Angeles has won the previous two meetings with San Jose, and both outings were determined in a shootout. The Kings prevailed Jan. 26 as 115 home ‘chalk,’ 3-2, and March 24 as a 114 home favorite, 4-3. The ‘under’ is 3-1 the previous four games in this series. Los Angeles is just 8-18 the past 26 matchups in San Jose, and 17-35-1 the previous 53 meetings overall.

Los Angeles center Anze Kopitar (ankle injury) is expected to miss the next month, while right wing Justin Williams (shoulder) is expected to miss the rest of the regular season. San Jose center Scott Nichol (wrist) and defenseman Kent Huskins (upper body) are ‘out.’

The Sharks follow this contest with a two-game road trip against Anaheim and Phoenix before concluding the regular season at home versus the Coyotes. The Kings host Phoenix after this contest before playing Anaheim in a home-and-home series.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ice Picks

Monday's Best NHL Bets


Boston Bruins at New York Rangers (-115, 5)

Boston's Michael Ryder had not scored a goal in more than a month, but the end of his drought was worth the wait. Ryder's successful penalty shot in the third period of Saturday's game against Atlanta gave the Bruins the win and the Northeast Division title.

"It's what a lot of teams battle for," head coach Claude Julien told the Boston Globe of winning divisions. "I'm just glad that's out of the way. We've got to keep winning games and see where we end up."

The Rangers, on the other hand, are still battling for a playoff spot. They were kicking themselves for losing three of four and back-to-games on Wednesday and Thursday, but things may have turned around on Sunday afternoon. New York edged Philadelphia 3-2 in a shootout for two critical points, putting the team in seventh in the Eastern Conference, a point ahead of Buffalo and three clear of Carolina.

All signs point to a thriller. Both teams have some momentum, every one of their three previous contests this season has been decided by one goal, and neither club is scoring a ton at the moment.

Boston has not scored more than three goals in its last five outings and New York has failed to light the lamp more than three times in each of its last six.

Pick: Under

Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks (-165, 5)

Something's gotta give when Los Angeles and San Jose square off in a showdown between two Western Conference playoff teams.

Both squads are on fire as they gear up for postseason action. The Kings have won five of their last six games and they are coming off a 3-1 home win over Dallas on Saturday. The Sharks have been even better, winning three in a row and seven of their last eight while taking points in all eight of those contests (the only loss came in a shootout at Los Angeles).

Not only that, but this is also an intriguing matchup in that it pits San Jose's blistering offense against L.A.'s stellar defense.

The Sharks have scored a ridiculous 37 goals during this current eight-game surge and they have not scored fewer than three goals in each of their last nine outings. The Kings, meanwhile, have not allowed more than three goals in any of their last seven contests and they have been scored upon a total of just five times in their last four games.

What could sway this clash in one of the two teams' favor?

Well, Los Angeles is just 8-18 in its past 26 trips to San Jose. The visitors won 4-0 there on December 27 but also got hammered 6-3 on the west coast on Nov. 15. The Kings will be without point-machine forwards Anze Kopitar (ankle) and Justin Williams (shoulder), who were both injured in late March.

Pick: Sharks

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NHL

Season: 358-278 (.563)

N.Y. RANGERS 3, Boston 2
SAN JOSE 3, Los Angeles 2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Philly WiseGuys

TOP PLAY CHAMPIONSHIP GOY BUTLER - too physical and uconn will struggle with their toughness

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Al

uconn -4

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Gold Sheet


MONDAY, APRIL 4

NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

at Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX


Well, maybe the Big East has indeed made its statement in the NCAA

Tournament. After all, how many loops could dream of their ninth-place team

ending up in the national title game? Miami-Florida (ACC), UMass (A-10),

Minnesota (Big Ten), Oklahoma State (Big XII), Wyoming (Mountain West),

Oregon State (Pac-10)..and the UConn Huskies, ninth-place finishers all in the

regular season. We’re guessing that the Big East bashers who support teams

from those other major conferences have a slightly different idea about the

quality of depth in UConn’s conference after the Huskies’ mad rush to the

NCAA title game.

Still, UConn-Butler was not the matchup many (any?) envisioned for the

national championship less than two months ago. Not when the Huskies were

laboring in the middle of the Big East pack en route to a .500 finish in

conference play. Or when the Bulldogs were looking more like a CBI or CIT

entry when struggling at 14-9 and just 6-5 in the Horizon League after a 62-60

loss to the lowly Youngstown State Penguins on February 3. Indeed, most

college hoop aficionados didn’t even dream HC Brad Stevens’ team could

make it back to the Final Four, much less the title game, after last year’s star

G Gordon Hayward had departed early for the NBA, where he was a first-round

draft choice of the Utah Jazz. In early February, a UMass-Minnesota final

looked almost as likely as a UConn-Butler title decider.

What has happened since is well-documented. Butler hasn’t lost since

that setback against the Penguins, winning 14 straight to make an unexpected

return to the national title game it lost in the last seconds a year ago to Duke.

It’s worth noting that the Bulldogs have also been effectively playing NCAA

elimination games since the Horizon Tournament, where losses to either

Cleveland State or UW-Milwaukee (which had beaten Butler twice in the

regular season and was hosting the league tourney title game) would have

probably knocked Butler into the NIT. Meanwhile, UConn waited until the Big

East Tourney to begin its ascent, winning and covering an astounding five

games in as many days at Madison Square Garden to advance to the Big

Dance with a head of steam, where the winning has continued unabated.

When combined with the late November success at the Maui Invitational, the

Huskies are a rather remarkable 13-0 SU this season in knockout format

games. Not to mention undefeated straight up against non-Big East

competition this season, and a near-spotless 10-1 spread mark vs. that nonconference

opposition to boot.

But, after watching these teams closely over the past month, we’re

convinced there is little, if anything, separating the two sides. If the Bulldogs

haven’t convinced the masses by now that they’re worthy of their place in the

title game, they never will. Big Dance wins over two of the top rebounding

teams in the country, Old Dominion and Big East regular-season champ Pitt,

plus dispatching rugged Wisconsin in the Sweet Sixteen, confirms that Butler

is very comfy if having to go the bump-and-grind route to the championship.

The electric transition games of Florida and Virginia Commonwealth were also

short-circuited by the Bulldogs and their tempo-controlling ways in the tourney.

Which is all much like a year ago, when Stevens’ well-schooled Butler also saw

off differing styles (uptempo Kansas State, and brutish Michigan State in

particular) to reach the title game vs. Duke.

The fundamental matchups vs. UConn will be no less challenging for

Butler than they have been countless times vs. other high-profile foes in the

Dance over the past two seasons. And, in do-everything G Kemba Walker

(23.7 ppg), the Huskies own the possible Player of the Year; among this year’s

college crop, only BYU’s Jimmer Fredette had similar abilities to singlehandedly

turn games on their ear. Walker has been getting more consistent

scoring help over the second half of the season from a couple of frosh

backcourt mates, Jeremy Lamb (now on a 10-game DD scoring streak after

netting 12 in the tedious semifinal win over Kentucky) and Shabazz Napier.

The UConn frontcourt, led by underrated 6-9 soph Alex Oriakhi and another

emerging frosh, 6-8 Roscoe Smith, is populated with effective role players who

play robust defense and crash the boards consistently.

The structure of the Huskies’ offense, however, runs through Walker and

the other perimeter weapons, something the Bulldogs are prepared to handle.

Snippy G Ronald Nored is one of the best on-ball defenders in the country and

would seem a decent matchup on Walker, if nothing else making Kemba work

extra hard to get his points. The Bulldogs excel at perimeter defense,

effectively fighting through ball-screens or switching as the situations dictate,

as VCU found out in the semifinals when it misfired on 14 of 22 triples. Butler’s

defense had earlier flustered Wisconsin sharpshooter Jordan Taylor and

limited Florida’s collection of long-range threats (limiting the Gators to 3 of 14

beyond the arc) in previous rounds of the Dance. The Huskies were also not

exactly putting on a shooting clinic in their semifinal win over Kentucky,

missing 11 of 12 from tripleville. And as big and physical as UConn’s frontline

is, we again refer to the Bulldogs’ ability to go toe to toe with Old Dominion

(maybe the most physically-intimidating team in the field of 68) and Pitt in

earlier rounds. The fact that Huskies’ frontliners such as Oriakhi generate

their scoring through graft and outside of the normal offensive flow might mean

that often foul-prone 6-8 Butler F Matt Howard will not have to worry as much

about post-up defensive chores as the Bulldogs did on Saturday, when VCU’s

versatile Jamie Skeen was doing most of his work on the blocks. Although

Kentucky’s big Josh Harrellson got into foul trouble on Saturday vs. UConn,

those were mostly silly fouls, something Howard has done a better job of

avoiding in the past two months.

Of course, the Huskies play some nasty defense, too, and Butler’s task is

not going to be easy unless some complementary scoring weapons step

forward to help hot jr. G Shelvin Mack (who was uncanny when scoring 24

points, including 5 of 6 triples, vs. VCU) and the consistent Howard. It’s worth

noting that the non-Mack Bulldogs shot only 28% from the floor vs. the Rams.

Butler’s role players, however, have been stepping forward in crucial moments

throughout the Dance, such as G Zach Hahn’s 8 straight points in a crucial

second-half stretch vs. VCU and pair of triples to get Butler back in the game

in the Elite 8 vs. Florida, and clutch baskets throughout the tourney from sr. G

Shawn Vanzant (including a key jumper in the late going on Saturday) & active

6-7 frosh F Khyle Marshall, who also snared nine key rebounds vs. the Rams.

The Bulldogs have also been hitting enough of their FTs lately (20 of 26 vs.

VCU) to suggest they won’t melt down at the charity stripe as Kentucky did vs.

UConn when the Cats missed 8 of 12 free tosses.

In conclusion, the Huskies have hardly appeared unbeatable when

squeezing past Arizona and Kentucky by the skin of their teeth in the past two

rounds. Fundamentals and two year’s worth of Big Dance results hardly

suggest Butler is out of its depth in this matchup. Moreover, given the close

nature of recent games, and the Bulldogs’ ten straight NCAA covers (and eight

in a row as a dog), the pointsptread cushion provided Butler is not insignificant.

Although this time, unlike a year ago vs. Duke, we don’t think the Bulldogs are

going to need any help from the oddsmakers for their backers to cash their

tickets on Monday night in an expected grinder with few transition

opportunities...exactly Butler’s style.

TGS SCORE FORECAST:

BUTLER 63 - Connecticut 59

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BUTLER (28 - 9) vs. CONNECTICUT (31 - 9)

Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games when playing with one or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
CONNECTICUT is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
CONNECTICUT is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in non-conference games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BUTLER is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 2 seasons.
BUTLER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
BUTLER is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
BUTLER is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
BUTLER is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
BUTLER is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
BUTLER is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
BUTLER is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in a NCAA tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
BUTLER is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BUTLER is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


BUTLER vs. CONNECTICUT
BUTLER: 10-0 ATS on neutral court
CONNECTICUT: 12-1 ATS on neutral court

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday's Best MLB Bets


Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles (-120, 9.5)

There’s a lot of optimism floating around Baltimore about this year’s Orioles club and rightfully so. They have a good, young nucleus of talent and have jumped out to a great start to the year, sweeping the Rays in their opening three-game set in Tampa Bay.

Zach Britton, a 23-year-old lefty, allowed just a single earned run and three hits in Sunday’s 5-1 win over Tampa Bay and Baltimore will look for another good outing from Jake Arrieta in the club’s home opener.

Pitching and defense have been key to Baltimore’s hot start as the club has allowed just three runs through its first three games.

"We're all out here to win. We're not out here to lose, I'll tell you that much," starter Chris Tillman told reporters. "I think Buck's kind of put that confidence in us. We watched that [motivational] video again the other day and we were just as pumped up. There's no secret behind it. We're all here to win every day."

Last season the Orioles went just 2-16 to start the season, but this year’s club looks like it could be an early money-maker for bettors.

Pick: Orioles

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (-160, 9)

Backed by a great start from Jaime Garcia, the St. Louis Cardinals booked their first win of the season with a 2-0 victory over San Diego on Sunday, which was a welcome sight for Cards supporters after the club gave up 16 runs in dropping its first two games of the season.

"You have to get off zero," manager Tony La Russa told reporters. "If it hangs around for a while, then all of a sudden it gets bigger than it should be. ... Over a long season, if you are good enough, your record is going to reflect it. But you don't want to be walking around with an anvil on your back."

It was a nice win, but St. Louis would feel a lot better moving forward if the team’s offense could heat up a bit. Albert Pujols has just two hits and one RBI so far and the Cardinals will now be without Matt Holliday for a couple of weeks after he underwent an appendectomy.

Without Holliday, La Russa decided to put Garcia in the No. 8 hole of the batting order and the team will need a lot of help from its bench to push some runs across without its cleanup hitter.

Pick: Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Butler vs. UCONN: What Bettors Need To Know

Butler Bulldogs vs. UCONN Huskies (-3.5, 129)

THE STORY: Nobody thought they’d be back. But the Butler Bulldogs, who came up just shy of a national title last season, have returned to the NCAA championship game to face another blueblood. The tiny school from Indianapolis battled Duke last year; Monday it’s UConn. Eighth-seeded Butler is the lowest-seeded team to play for the title since Villanova won it as a No. 8 seed in 1985. The third-seeded Huskies are seeking their third national championship, having won it in 1999 and 2004. Both teams play stifling defense and take their cues from a star junior guard.

TV: 9:20 p.m. ET, CBS. POINTSPREAD: UConn -3.5, 129

ABOUT BUTLER (28-9): The Bulldogs have won 14 straight and appear to be mentally tougher than everyone they play. Shelvin Mack scored 24 points on 8-of-11 shooting to lead the Bulldogs past VCU 70-62 in the semifinals, and he’s been clutch throughout the tournament. The 6-3 junior made five of six from beyond the arc and also grabbed six rebounds. Leading scorer Matt Howard (16.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg) drew 10 fouls, making 11 of 12 free throws. And reserve senior guard Zach Hahn scored all eight of his points in a decisive 90-second span in the second half. Junior Ronald Nored is the defensive tone-setter. A shutdown on-ball defender, Nored will face his toughest challenge yet in trying to contain Huskies superstar Kemba Walker.

ABOUT UCONN (31-9): The Huskies have won 10 straight dating to the start of the Big East tournament, making their ninth-place Big East finish a distant memory. Walker didn’t shoot well in UConn’s 56-55 semifinal win over Kentucky, but he did everything else, getting seven assists, six rebounds and two steals to go with 18 points. Walker continues to penetrate at will and is averaging more than eight free throws in the tournament (38 of 42). The Huskies outrebounded the bigger Wildcats and held them to 34 percent shooting. Freshman Jeremy Lamb continues to be a nice complement to Walker; he’s shooting 59 percent in the tournament (32 of 54) and has made 11 of 17 3-pointers. Forward Alex Oriakhi (9.6 rpg in the tourney) must stay out of foul trouble to defend Howard.

PREDICTION: UConn 67, Butler 65 – No team is more fundamentally sound than Butler, but the Bulldogs will be bothered by UConn's superior quickness. Most important, the Huskies have the best player in Walker. In what's sure to be a tight game, Walker makes the difference.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday's Best NCAAB Championship Bet

Butler Bulldogs vs. UCONN Huskies (-3.5, 129)

It all comes down to this. On Monday night, our Butler Bulldogs vs. Connecticut Huskies free picks will come to fruition, as one of these two teams will be cutting down the nets at Reliant Stadium as the 2011 National Champions.

In one corner, we have the Bulldogs. They are the first team from a mid major conference to make it to the Final Four in back to back seasons since the 1990-91 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels, and even that team, which had an undefeated regular season in there in ’91, wasn’t able to make it to two straight finales. Butler has proven that it isn’t just a one year wonder any longer, and it has certainly been arguably even stronger this season than it was last year. The Bulldogs have stood some stern tests from some powerful teams, and you can bet, especially after taking down the Pittsburgh Panthers in the Round of 32, that there is no issue intimidation issues whatsoever about trying to beat a team that was challenged by Pitt all season long. As always, the men to really keep a close eye on are Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard. Mack was an absolute dynamo on Saturday night, accounting for five three pointers and a total of 24 points against the VCU Rams. For the first time since the opening round of the dance, Howard was in foul trouble against the Rams, but he was able to stay on the court, and he knocked down 11 big time free throws in 12 attempts to help lead the team to victory.

When push really comes to shove, one could make the argument that it is just as unlikely for UConn to be in this spot as Butler is. Sure, the Bulldogs have come out of a very tough West Region and survived against a slew of difficult teams after just barely even making it into the field of 68 as the Horizon League champs (though we tend to believe that they would’ve been in the field even had they lost the Horizon League Championship). However, the Huskies have won 10 games in a row, seven of which have come as underdogs, and all 10 games have come in a span of less than four total weeks. Kemba Walker continued his tear on Saturday, scoring 18 points to lead all scorers in the game against the Kentucky Wildcats, and though he wasn’t really the reason in the end why the team won the game, it is clear that it wouldn’t be in this spot without him. Walker has averaged 25.0 points per game in the dance to date, one of the highest marks in the entire tournament amongst players that played at least three games (BYU’s Jimmer Fredette being the primary exception). However, he has really gotten some help out of Jeremy Lamb as well. Lamb has scored in double digits in all 10 of these wins, which isn’t all that bad for a man that averaged fewer than 10 points per game coming into the Big East Tournament.

They say that every dog has its day. UConn has had its day in the past, but Butler hasn’t. These Bulldogs came up literally centimeters short last season of winning it all. This year’s version of the team will get the job done. Back Butler for your National Championship picks.

PICK: Butler

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Red Sox Sunday.

Monday it's Connecticut. The deficit is 1,384 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

The big bad Bosawx remained on pace to go 0-162 yesterday as they flopped again against the Rangers to trim Hondo's earnings to 70 armstrongs.

Tonight, at the Houston Dog Show, Mr. Aitch will put his DDPs (disposable dead presidents) on the Huskies to win in Conn-vincing fashion -- 10 units.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Play Monday

Cubs -145

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

618 - 466 57 % Run over 2 1/2 YEARS !

Free winner Mon Yanks -150