Champions League semifinals - 2nd leg

[rolltide]

Barcelona vs Chelsea

I think backing Barcelona 1H is best bet for this game. Really anything can happen in 2H with away goals rule so I'm more more confident with Barca winning at HT than with them winning match by 2+ goals or qualifying.

Stats for Barca winning HT at home are insane this year. Saturday trailing 0-1 at vs Real Madrid was the only time they were losing at HT all year! 23-2-1 in first half when hosting a match in the Nou Camp...La Liga they are a ridiculous 15-1-1, Champions League 4-1-0, and Copa Del Rey 4-0-0.

They've only conceded in 5 of 26 home games and have a goal difference of 51/5 at HT this year and only twice have failed to score a first half goal (Saturday vs RM, October vs Sevilla.

Chelsea have led at HT in just 5 EPL gams (same as Blackburn btw) and scored only 9 goals in 18 EPL games, and just 2 in past 9. Toss out the 4 they netted in Bolton and you're talking 5 goals in the other 17 games. Away to Genk as a -400 fav was the only time they led at HT in Europe

Barcelona now with 2 straight defeats for the first time in 3 years. I attended the match the last time they were playing off two straight losses (vs Man U in CL final in Rome) and they had no trouble leading at HT and then FT in that one.

I never risk more than 2.5 units in a CL match so that's what I'm going with tomorrow.

Barcelona 1H 1.5u -167

 

[DialSquares]

i am rather surprised to see chelsea +2 at -130 over at pinny. I could see 2-0 barca and they advance and Barca can score 4-5 goals vs anyone when the condition is right but chelsea defending at the start and perhaps counter-attacking should hold barca to a 1 or at most 2 goal win. Chelsea have a great h2h record at the camp nou...so 1-0 HT and 1-1 2-1 FT works for both of us.

GL - i do hope the Turkish ref doesn't play into the barca flop' game and ruins what could be a good match.

 

[rolltide]

well i think you're going to see a big dose of embarrassing anti-football today from Chelsea so if barca don't score in the first 20-30 minutes they'll get frustrated and start the incessant flopping for free kicks. Hopefully barca net one early and lead at HT, as they usually do, and then we get a 2H of good barca possession with chelsea counters. Will be interesting to see if they start Mata and Lampard or if they go with the 3 defensive midfielders and 4 defenders like they did on saturday. Guessing Torres will be in lineup although him or Drogba might see 4 touches all game anyway

real madrid's weekend win even more impressive when i read that barca at camp nou this year were 27-3-0 104/16

regarding ref...saw that chelsea supporters already starting a conspiracy theory as his appointment was made by a committee headed by a fellow turk who does a lot of business with one of Barca's key sponsors. he's a quality ref and this is his 5th CL match this year so he's not going to be intimidated

i don't really care who advances as long as barca lead at ht

 

[gremlin]

Is Barca HT-FT a good bet?

 

[DialSquares]

Cuenca starts for barca and drogba for chelski? I wonder if chelsea were playing a little game with barca over drogba. Bit of a surprise to me. I guess the over/under is 4 for drogba lying on the ground bringing out the trainers. 4 seems high but i'd take the over myself...unless chelski is down by 2 and then he will never be hurt.

i know at bet365 Barca leading at HT pays -188 and Barca/Barca HT/FT pays -175. So that little odd change doesn't seem worth it to me.

and i know what you mean rolltide...with these 4 teams left i think it is easy to be a fan of Bayern Munich (evens with Robben and Ribery)

 

[rolltide]

Barca 2-1 HT winner

should be great 2H now that Barca needs another goal vs 10 men

 

[gremlin]

I'm on Barca HT-FT

 

[gremlin]

Is Real Madrid -1 the play today?

 

[rolltide]

certainly RM have a more decisive advantage because of scoring in first leg but i'm really surprised they are -200....figured something like -350. surely we won't end up with 2 teams playing for title in europe that can't even win their own league, right?

 

[DialSquares]

my belief is 2-1 real and we are going to extras....i don't see a bet of value in this one.....good game to watch but not to bet imho

but i'll be rooting for munchen of course

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

that's really too bad the net held robben in place in lieu of crashing thru the back into the placards.....shocking, i know.... another wide open chance to beat iker casillas....and doesn't....F U robben u ****

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

astonishing how indecisive players are when it comes to a penalty...

 

[DialSquares]

chelsea v munich - take the over. Both teams will need to score early and often with the backline being depleted due to UEFA dumb yellow card rule. What a poor second half - i think both sides started worrying about red cards/yellow cards because it just died. too bad because the first half was great. As for the pks, these guys just don't practice it i guess - too busy on twitter and at night clubs i guess. I still blame la liga for scheduling el classico between semi-final legs of cl. certainly the epl didn't expect chelski in the semi's when they scheduled them vs the Arsenal. But La liga should have clued in one or the other (or both) would still be in the CL. Oh well...worked for me as a chelski v munich final was my hope. And now the germans lift the cup.

bayer -138 at bet365 and the over pays +105. No bets til game day for me but i do think munchen and over is the early play

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

germans are known for being precise and mathematical...was shocked they actually missed 2 pk's.... i thought the spanish were dead going to pk's and as soon as cr7 missed the first one.. boom...i thought bayern played well..funny that robben didn't get a 2nd chance during the pk's...lil **** barely squeaked that first one in...couldn't agree more on the over as the play in the final..and i do hate the yellow cards leading to many missing the final...no real opinion on a side..but the germans back end should definitely be exploited...maybe torres will actually get a nod as a starter?

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

guess censorship knows no bounds..apparently swearing is now a no-no?..interesting...guess i will take my potty mouth back to the pub