Cfl Week 5

powerz · Jul 23, 2008

Last week I told you that the Dogs were cashing in at an incredible clip of 75% YTD. So what happened in week 4 the favorites swept the board on opening lines. BC pushed their closing line and if you were unlucky and got the argos at -4.5 you lost.

So things are evening out stats wise for the books after 4 weeks here are some numbers:

THIS INFO IS BASED ON CLOSING LINES:

TOTALS 9-7 Over-Under ----> Line moves on Totals 6-7 (meaning the line move has only been correct 6 times and lost 7 times)

FAVS ATS 6-9 ------> Line moves:
Opening lines Favs 6-5
Closing line Favs 4-6 ( this maybe confusing but heres why the diff. there has been 5 games with no ats movement & one game pushed at the closing line).

Heres why I look at this stuff - in the past two weeks line movements on totals has gone 2-6 after starting 4-1. Not surprising during the last 2 weeks the Overs have gone 6-2. I would not be surprised to see a strong week from Totals with line movements.

Starting with CGY and WINN. the line opened at 55 it is currently at 53.5

This drop makes sense when you consider:

CGY has solid run defense - which should neutralise Roberts again
Winn is starting their back up QB and will be without Milt Stegal again
CGY has a tremendous offense so far avg'g 31 pts (27 OTR).
H2H the two years in Winn have resulted in unders.
Winn will be with out two starting LB's so expect a lot of run plays from CGY.

My first play this week

CGY/WINN U54 -1.2*

GL guys

Powerz

VenomousSanction · Jul 23, 2008

Gl P!

powerz · Jul 24, 2008

Once again banking on line movements

ED/HAM O52 1.2*

powerz · Jul 25, 2008

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">I always thought Maciocia was a horrible coach but look at his record in the scenario he is in tonight:

Maciocia is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) as a favorite as the coach of EDMONTON.
The average score was EDMONTON 25.1, OPPONENT 24.1 - (Rating = 1*)
</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">Maciocia is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) as the coach of EDMONTON.
The average score was EDMONTON 19.8, OPPONENT 22.7 - (Rating = 1*)</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">Maciocia is 2-15 ATS (-14.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of EDMONTON.
The average score was EDMONTON 21.7, OPPONENT 25.6 - (Rating = 4*)</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">Maciocia is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) versus awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse as the coach of EDMONTON.
The average score was EDMONTON 22.6, OPPONENT 26.1 - (Rating = 1*)</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">Maciocia is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring 23 or less points/game as the coach of EDMONTON.
The average score was EDMONTON 20.8, OPPONENT 26.5 - (Rating = 3*)</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">Maciocia is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by 5+ points per game on the season as the coach of EDMONTON.
The average score was EDMONTON 22.8, OPPONENT 26.2 - (Rating = 4*)</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">Maciocia is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) versus terrible teams - outscored by 9+ points per game on the season as the coach of EDMONTON.
The average score was EDMONTON 21.6, OPPONENT 25.3 - (Rating = 3*)</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">Maciocia is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of -0.75 per game or worse as the coach of EDMONTON.
The average score was EDMONTON 20.1, OPPONENT 22.4 - (Rating = 2*)</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">Maciocia is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in the first half of the season as the coach of EDMONTON.
The average score was EDMONTON 23.9, OPPONENT 26.5 - (Rating = 0*)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>