CFL Week 3

[HPark1]

2-4, -5x

Olympic just released this week's lines.

BC Lions -13 *x4

Line too low, should be 16/17. I really believe Montreal simply turned the switch off and then the momentum built by Ottawa just could not be stopped. Before the 4th quarter it was a clinic by Montreal. Thus I don't think that result from Ottawa is completely legit.

I also rank BC a level higher than Montreal so I really can't see Ottawa competing at BC. The only way Ottawa covers is if their offense can have a big day, which is possible. I do like Ottawa's offense and BC's defense looked a bit shaky against Toronto. However on paper they have a strongish defense and I think it will just take some time before they operate at a high level.


I will have a cover bet of sorts with the Over but will wait that line out. 58 probably won't get any higher and I should be able to get the reduced juice line from Pinnacle when they release.


BC should be able to score 40+ points.



gl

 

[HPark1]

Dominguez confirmed out. Centre J. O'Day is also questionable.

Toronto -3, +105 *x3


more to come...

 

[HPark1]

Starting to get a better feel for whats going on this year.

Thus opening up the "attack" this week.

adding;

Calgary -165/BC -600 parlay, -115 *x2
Ottawa/BC Over 58, -110 *x2
Edmonton +3.5, -110 *x3


Will post a bit of info as gameday approaches. A lot already has been said about the Calgary game so might not add anything there. Seems pretty straight forward, team with a rookie QB with not much help around him or on the defensive side of the ball. Calgary has a good defense and if Burris can play average they will win this game.


gl2 everyone this week :fballch3:

 

[AC]

are there any key pointspread numbers in CFL?

obviously because of singles 3 and 7 don't matter

just curious

AC

 

[HPark1]

don't ask me, ask JeffH! (see Sal The Itals thread)

I would guess 3 and 7 are still numbers of interest just to a slightly lesser degree obviously with the singles and safety's interfering on a common basis.

Overall I don't think to much about not laying x number or buying a half point due to the fact these games have such a vast array of numbers they could land on. I don't think any situation would warrant buying a half point, especially for 10c.

 

[oneoutofthreeaintbad]

Key Numbers

From a very reliable source.....

2002-2004 CFL Seasons Inclusive

Pointspread-Frequency:

1-14
2-17
3-21
4-9
5-13
6-11
7-12
8-11
9-9
10-13
11-6
12-7
13-4
14-5

Total-Frequency:

45-2
46-6
47-7
48-6
49-3
50-5
51-10
52-6
53-8
54-5
55-4
56-9
57-12
58-5
59-1
60-2

 

[HPark1]

this forum is quite useful :aktion033

Small sample so still almost impossible to draw conclusions. Still I was thinking maybe 2 could also be a number of interest, data seems to back it up. Totals are interesting, 51/57 sort of make sense.

thanks for the numbers

 

[AC]

thanks

AC

ps. northern ice play tonight winn +5.5 and Under 49

he says that wind and field position are dictating this play.

AC

 

[Moon88]

From a very reliable source.....

2002-2004 CFL Seasons Inclusive

Pointspread-Frequency:

1-14
2-17
3-21
4-9
5-13
6-11
7-12
8-11
9-9
10-13
11-6
12-7
13-4
14-5

Total-Frequency:

45-2
46-6
47-7
48-6
49-3
50-5
51-10
52-6
53-8
54-5
55-4
56-9
57-12
58-5
59-1
60-2

Thanks for the info!! I'm assuming those are not the #'s for games landing on the spread......Correct?

 

[Moon88]

thanks

AC

ps. northern ice play tonight winn +5.5 and Under 49

he says that wind and field position are dictating this play.

AC

AC if you don't mind...where are you finding his plays? Thanks!!:toast:

 

[MarkieMark+]

Wind in Winnipeg is 40 KM/HR (25 mph) gusting to 60 KM/HR (40 mph) and 70% chance of thunderstorms.

However, just like last week against Edmonton, the weather might affect the total but it won't affect the outcome. Calgary will still win LARGE.

MM

 

[AC]

he says he won't post on forums anymore so he has an email list...all he asks is that you wait an hour after you recieve the play to post on the forums.

shoot me an email and I will give you his email addy

AC

 

[unconscious]

with you on the "moes"

 

[jwblue]

Had to sweat out Edmonton. Got the "W'" though.

IS

 

[jwblue]

Well..another late butt f*cking in the BC game. Oh well. Still a profitable day.

IS

 

[HPark1]

yes a bit unlucky again with Ottawa covering twice scoring TD's after falling behind by 15. It was quite unreal how BC still (and really should have) was in position to cover. Their offensive line has serious issues. D. Dickenson was pressured on what seemed like half the plays and had to run for his life on numerous occasions. Even with their offensive woes it took an idiot rookie who thought he could run back a missed fg from the back of the endzone (with several Ottawa players within 2-4 yards of him) to fumble the ball in the endzone and have some hog fall on it for the TD and a "prevent D" to give Ottawa a 80 yard TD drive in seconds.

I guess BC's performance didn't deserve the cover.


About the Edmonton game, complete throwaway by the Eskimoes. They basically handed the game to Montreal. Nothing to say about Landry's 300+ yard return total, totally unacceptable. Whats most disturbing is the last play from Edmonton. With 8+ ticks to go they have to punt from their 5 yard line. The punt is fine (up the middle, make sure he can't get of bounds quickly) but an Edmonton player decides to touch Landry after he immediately goes down leaving .2 seconds for the winning FG attempt. After Landry went down they should have just surrounded him to make sure he didn't get up and run again but to stop the clock by tagging him was completely INSANE!



Still believe tonight's line is off. 4-6 would be a more appropriate line with Saskatchewan key injuries. Looking hard at the Under also.

 

[jwblue]

I can't believe BC gave away that TD on the muffed return.

Unbelievable!

IS

 

[HPark1]

Centre O'day and defensive rusher N. Davis were injured. Two more key injuries.

If Toronto does not come back and win they should be ashamed of themselves.


Toronto -2 *x3


gl

 

[sharky99]

Far from done, Sask D playing well, they have a good secondary also but DB McCalla is out also, arguably their best one and at the fact of the other injuries, hoping with you Toronto comes back. Toronto has to be able to move the ball because their D is spending a lot of time on the field. COME ON ARGOS GET IT DONE:toast:

 

[sharky99]

F.... First pass is a Pic