It's been a tough first half of the season, with my futures being the only positive I can take solace in. Time to get back on track with a play that is probably really unpopular...
British Columbia Lions +11 (-110) -- 2 units: I'm trying not to be a homer, but I really think BC match up well with Montreal. I'll analyze it 4 ways, starting with BC's passing game against Montreal's pass defence. BC's pass game sucks, largely due to Printers having to spend more time watching his own OL collapse than he does looking downfield. Because of this and his tendency to throw it up for grabs, BC will probably live and die with the big play. Montreal's secondary is in the bottom half of the league rankings, and is probably the worst in the league at stopping the deep ball, having committed numerous pass interference penalties this season. There is room for BC to make big plays. Secondly, I look at BC's run game against Montreal's run defence. Montreal will stuff the run all day, as they are very strong up front, but since BC has had zero success in recent weeks, I doubt they'll be relying on the run game to make the offence work. Montreal's strength on defence is almost wasted by the fact that BC will probably elect to keep it in the air most of the game. Third, I look at Montreal's pass game against BC's pass defence. Montreal has been lighting it up in the air this year, but without Calvillo, they will probably not take too many shots downfield. I fully expect them to keep the playbook simple, maybe run some trick plays that take the ball out of Leak's hands, etc. BC's pass defence has actually been holding pretty strong this season, and is probably the biggest surprise on a terrible team. Even more important, BC has numerous corners and halfbacks who like to ball hawk, and jump routes with hopes of making a pick. Against a rookie like Leak, this could lead to several turnovers. Finally, looking at Montreal's non-existent run game against BC's crappy run defence, I feel okay backing the Leos as Montreal has done very little all year. They may try to put the ball in Avon's hands a bit more, but again, they are of little threat on the ground. In the end, 11 points is way too much to give for a team with a crappy secondary and a QB making his first pro start (with less than 50 snaps taken in his pro career). If BC can avoid the catastrophic early turnover, they should stick around.
GL
YTD: 9-13, -8.67 units
hno:
British Columbia Lions +11 (-110) -- 2 units: I'm trying not to be a homer, but I really think BC match up well with Montreal. I'll analyze it 4 ways, starting with BC's passing game against Montreal's pass defence. BC's pass game sucks, largely due to Printers having to spend more time watching his own OL collapse than he does looking downfield. Because of this and his tendency to throw it up for grabs, BC will probably live and die with the big play. Montreal's secondary is in the bottom half of the league rankings, and is probably the worst in the league at stopping the deep ball, having committed numerous pass interference penalties this season. There is room for BC to make big plays. Secondly, I look at BC's run game against Montreal's run defence. Montreal will stuff the run all day, as they are very strong up front, but since BC has had zero success in recent weeks, I doubt they'll be relying on the run game to make the offence work. Montreal's strength on defence is almost wasted by the fact that BC will probably elect to keep it in the air most of the game. Third, I look at Montreal's pass game against BC's pass defence. Montreal has been lighting it up in the air this year, but without Calvillo, they will probably not take too many shots downfield. I fully expect them to keep the playbook simple, maybe run some trick plays that take the ball out of Leak's hands, etc. BC's pass defence has actually been holding pretty strong this season, and is probably the biggest surprise on a terrible team. Even more important, BC has numerous corners and halfbacks who like to ball hawk, and jump routes with hopes of making a pick. Against a rookie like Leak, this could lead to several turnovers. Finally, looking at Montreal's non-existent run game against BC's crappy run defence, I feel okay backing the Leos as Montreal has done very little all year. They may try to put the ball in Avon's hands a bit more, but again, they are of little threat on the ground. In the end, 11 points is way too much to give for a team with a crappy secondary and a QB making his first pro start (with less than 50 snaps taken in his pro career). If BC can avoid the catastrophic early turnover, they should stick around.
GL
YTD: 9-13, -8.67 units
hno:
