CFL plays: Week 7

YourAllAmerican · Aug 9, 2010

Going to go ahead and make this play because I like the number.

Edmonton (+9.5) at Calgary

I'm a big believer in regression-to-the-mean theory in handicapping (especially in the NFL, but that's a different topic) and the Eskimos are well below the rest of the pack in ATS margin at this point in the season (chart link below). Couple that with a Stamps team that appears to have an iffy (at best) killer instinct, and I like the chances of this one staying within the number.

If the line happens to drift toward Calgary, I'd consider tacking on another half-unit it it got to 10 or better.

http://cleanuphitter.com/cfl/stats/chart_ats_margins.php

guil0000 · Aug 10, 2010

Glad you like it also! May I ask what book you got the 9.5?

YourAllAmerican · Aug 10, 2010

Try Bookmaker/Cris for 9.5. Looks like they still have it there.

Dandy · Aug 10, 2010

No Stamps

Fred Stamps is out. That's big for Eskies.

douglas · Aug 10, 2010

Dandy said:
Fred Stamps is out. That's big for Eskies.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/spor...ne+Eskimos+receiver+Stamps/3373368/story.html

YourAllAmerican · Aug 10, 2010

Dandy said:
Fred Stamps is out. That's big for Eskies.

He's a good ballplayer, but receivers just don't touch the ball enough to affect a game much at all (if any) .

I wouldn't mind seeing an overreaction to his absence bump the line, though, but I don't it's very likely to happen.

YourAllAmerican · Aug 14, 2010

Montreal at Toronto, O 51.5

I had really been hoping this would dip to 51 before game time, but that's not going to happen. Even with that hook sitting there, I still like the total. We know that Montreal with Calvillo can score points, even against a Toronto defense that's not bad at all. Now with Cleo Lemon seeming more comfortable, I like for the Argos to hit the scoreboard.

I sort of like the Argos in this spot as a dog, but Montreal's potential for piling scores in a hurry has pushed me away from any line play in this one.