CFB betting look for Week 9: Buy Georgia
Will Harris
ESPN INSIDER
10/23/17
Our college football look-ahead is the essential grab-bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. In Week 9, we examine a Big 12 clash that might see both teams right where bettors want them, remind you to look deeper at coordinators' track records and offer some tips on handicapping the coaching search futures market.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling and why.
Buy
Georgia Bulldogs
Much like Penn State, Georgia's weakness -- the offensive line -- should be another recruiting class or two away from being up to league standards, but good coaching has that position developing well ahead of schedule. The Bulldogs are sporting a freshman quarterback, lack elite depth in a few spots on defense and match up poorly against Alabama. Those three things will keep Georgia from an SEC championship in just the second year of the Kirby Smart era, but we're still buying this ascending power and expect the Dawgs to roll through the rest of their schedule and finish the season with just one loss. It won't be long before this outfit starts accumulating real hardware, and this week is a good time to jump back on the train as the 30 seniors on this Red and Black squad vent three years of Cocktail Party frustration against a hapless Florida team.
Sell
Texas A&M Aggies
We pointed out last week that the SEC is so down that some pretty weak teams will finish with solid records thanks to an uncharacteristically soft schedule. Kentucky was in the spotlight last week, and the Aggies are likewise not nearly as good as their record suggests. Five straight wins over weak opposition and a moral victory against a disinterested Alabama do not mean that the problems which led to an A&M regent publicly calling for Kevin Sumlin's ouster back in September have gone away. Poor chemistry, insufficient physicality, overdependence on too few playmakers and an inability to cope with adversity continue to plague this team even as it improves. If Christian Kirk and Armani Watts had gone down in camp, the Aggies would probably be 0-7 right now. The schedule stiffens down the stretch, and this crew might have already gotten its last win. We're especially eyeing the visit from New Mexico in Week 11 as a deceptively fair fight and appealing fade spot.
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for.
Texas Longhorns (-8) at Baylor Bears
Both of these team have improved substantially since a catastrophic season opener, but only Texas has something to show for it. The Longhorns mostly received their makeover in the offseason, and by the end of camp, they were already a much better team than the 2016 edition. The opening weekend Maryland loss was not representative of where the team really was. Baylor truly was what it was in its opening loss to Liberty, and the Bears' progress has been more gradual, though no less real.
Now the improving Bears meet the team that started the current 13-game regular season downswing. Baylor entered last year's tilt unbeaten and as a small road favorite over a Texas squad that had lost four of its past five and squandered the promise of the opening win over Notre Dame. It was an odd game, and Baylor didn't get the breaks in a 35-34 loss. This year's Bears may be winless, but they've been competitive. The most recent step was a furious 23-point fourth-quarter rally against West Virginia on Saturday that fell a two-pointer short of overtime. This squad has to show us two things to get our money this week.
We want to see encouragement and belief taken from the second half against the Mountaineers, a little dab of moral victory in another close defeat against a good team and a feeling of momentum after such a stellar fourth quarter and spirited rally. We also need to see a hunger and urgency to finally break through, a sense of being fed up with losing. If the Bears can show us that balance of encouragement and determination during the week, this might be a good spot to move in hard, provided we also get the needed vibe from the visiting favorite.
The question for the Longhorns is whether they are out of gas right now. Like Utah last week, the Horns are coming off two tough, narrow losses as underdogs against league favorites that essentially knocked the team out of the conference race. The Utes were simply out of gas and couldn't get off the mat as a favorite the following week. For Texas to do so in this morning road game will be especially difficult since winless Baylor is an uninspiring target and TCU is on deck. The Horns' last three were a draining gauntlet: double-overtime versus Kansas State, a big deficit then near-comeback in a physical game versus hated rival Oklahoma, then a third overtime game this year -- a missed upset chance versus the league co-favorite that ended with the most freshman mistake ever from a freshman quarterback who had just seized the job but is now ailing.
Does this team have anything left in the tank this week? We'll be trying to find out. There's a lot going on in this matchup, and if it all comes together, it could be something handicappers are always seeking: a spot where, independent of opponent, one side is ripe to be faded and the other is on the verge of its best game.
Handicapper's toolbox
A different concept every Monday, and how to apply it on Saturday.
Be aware of not only what coordinators bring to their side of the ball overall, but also their impact on specific series
In the second look ahead of 2017, we pointed to the loss of Gene Chizik as one of the key factors in North Carolina's impending decline. Most coaches are only elite schematic talents on one side of the ball or not at all, so most are only as good as their lieutenants to some extent. Larry Fedora is a top offensive mind, but his overall program culture leaves him relying heavily on his coordinator to forge the team's defensive identity.
Dabo Swinney has become a top coach without an elite Xs-and-Os pedigree. His team will often only be as good as its coordinators, but the strong program culture he's created provides a high floor even with league-average talent in the assistants' chairs. With big-time coordinators, Swinney's Tigers can really shine, and there are few Clemson observers who wouldn't say that reigning Broyles Award winner Brent Venables has been fantastic in his role and one of the best assistant coaches in the land.
Swinney became an ACC head coach in 2008, the same year as Paul Johnson, and Georgia Tech is a permanent crossover opponent for Clemson. The pair also faced off in the 2009 ACC Championship Game, and in the first five meetings Johnson's Jackets bested Swinney's Tigers four times, piling up an average of 293 rushing yards. Since Venables became Clemson's defensive coordinator, it's the Tigers who have won four of five, with the Jackets' rushing average slashed to 200 yards. And the Clemson defense has shown steady improvement against Johnson's unique option offense. In chronological order, here are the total yards allowed by Venables' unit in five games versus Tech: 483-440-353-230-124. As Swinney said about the Tech offense during last week's open date, "They don't freak us out anymore."
Venables has clearly taken an increasingly talented pool of players and forged one of the nation's most consistent defenses. The handicapper's task is to look beyond what everybody knows about the impact that great coordinators make, and try to find specific matchups where that impact manifests itself more than others. This is one of those spots, and those who like the Jackets plus the points this week will probably have to count on the Tech defense to win the day.
Chalk bits
Projecting the rise and fall of regimes is certainly a central focus of our work, and with that come predictions about specific coaching changes, searches and hires. With more and more bookmakers offering coaching-related props, we're not opposed to wading into those markets from time to time.
The two most important general rules of predicting coaching hires are:
1) If the previous regime was successful, athletic directors will attempt to find someone that they believe replicates the qualities that led to the success. If it failed, the new direction will be diametrically opposed. That's true for traits like offensive versus defensive background, ties to the school versus not, head coaching or NFL experience versus not, older versus younger and so on.
2) Coaches who have formerly served as an assistant at the school cash at a very high rate. Sure, there are always a handful of guys coaching at their alma maters, but the real litmus test is past experience as an assistant. Pick any point in history and count the number of FBS head coaches who had at some previous point in their careers been assistants at the school, and it'll probably be approaching 40 percent.
Those are the two most basic tenets for handicapping coaching hires. This year's props are just starting to emerge at the books that indulge in that sort of thing, so be on the lookout. There's not space to get expansive about the specifics, but here are three picks with multiple factors pointing toward them, and while things change rapidly on the coaching carousel, we'd consider these pretty good plays as of now at 15-1 or better.
Tennessee: Brent Venables
Ole Miss: Frank Wilson
Kansas State: Kevin Sumlin
Will Harris
ESPN INSIDER
10/23/17
Our college football look-ahead is the essential grab-bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. In Week 9, we examine a Big 12 clash that might see both teams right where bettors want them, remind you to look deeper at coordinators' track records and offer some tips on handicapping the coaching search futures market.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling and why.
Buy
Georgia Bulldogs
Much like Penn State, Georgia's weakness -- the offensive line -- should be another recruiting class or two away from being up to league standards, but good coaching has that position developing well ahead of schedule. The Bulldogs are sporting a freshman quarterback, lack elite depth in a few spots on defense and match up poorly against Alabama. Those three things will keep Georgia from an SEC championship in just the second year of the Kirby Smart era, but we're still buying this ascending power and expect the Dawgs to roll through the rest of their schedule and finish the season with just one loss. It won't be long before this outfit starts accumulating real hardware, and this week is a good time to jump back on the train as the 30 seniors on this Red and Black squad vent three years of Cocktail Party frustration against a hapless Florida team.
Sell
Texas A&M Aggies
We pointed out last week that the SEC is so down that some pretty weak teams will finish with solid records thanks to an uncharacteristically soft schedule. Kentucky was in the spotlight last week, and the Aggies are likewise not nearly as good as their record suggests. Five straight wins over weak opposition and a moral victory against a disinterested Alabama do not mean that the problems which led to an A&M regent publicly calling for Kevin Sumlin's ouster back in September have gone away. Poor chemistry, insufficient physicality, overdependence on too few playmakers and an inability to cope with adversity continue to plague this team even as it improves. If Christian Kirk and Armani Watts had gone down in camp, the Aggies would probably be 0-7 right now. The schedule stiffens down the stretch, and this crew might have already gotten its last win. We're especially eyeing the visit from New Mexico in Week 11 as a deceptively fair fight and appealing fade spot.
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for.
Texas Longhorns (-8) at Baylor Bears
Both of these team have improved substantially since a catastrophic season opener, but only Texas has something to show for it. The Longhorns mostly received their makeover in the offseason, and by the end of camp, they were already a much better team than the 2016 edition. The opening weekend Maryland loss was not representative of where the team really was. Baylor truly was what it was in its opening loss to Liberty, and the Bears' progress has been more gradual, though no less real.
Now the improving Bears meet the team that started the current 13-game regular season downswing. Baylor entered last year's tilt unbeaten and as a small road favorite over a Texas squad that had lost four of its past five and squandered the promise of the opening win over Notre Dame. It was an odd game, and Baylor didn't get the breaks in a 35-34 loss. This year's Bears may be winless, but they've been competitive. The most recent step was a furious 23-point fourth-quarter rally against West Virginia on Saturday that fell a two-pointer short of overtime. This squad has to show us two things to get our money this week.
We want to see encouragement and belief taken from the second half against the Mountaineers, a little dab of moral victory in another close defeat against a good team and a feeling of momentum after such a stellar fourth quarter and spirited rally. We also need to see a hunger and urgency to finally break through, a sense of being fed up with losing. If the Bears can show us that balance of encouragement and determination during the week, this might be a good spot to move in hard, provided we also get the needed vibe from the visiting favorite.
The question for the Longhorns is whether they are out of gas right now. Like Utah last week, the Horns are coming off two tough, narrow losses as underdogs against league favorites that essentially knocked the team out of the conference race. The Utes were simply out of gas and couldn't get off the mat as a favorite the following week. For Texas to do so in this morning road game will be especially difficult since winless Baylor is an uninspiring target and TCU is on deck. The Horns' last three were a draining gauntlet: double-overtime versus Kansas State, a big deficit then near-comeback in a physical game versus hated rival Oklahoma, then a third overtime game this year -- a missed upset chance versus the league co-favorite that ended with the most freshman mistake ever from a freshman quarterback who had just seized the job but is now ailing.
Does this team have anything left in the tank this week? We'll be trying to find out. There's a lot going on in this matchup, and if it all comes together, it could be something handicappers are always seeking: a spot where, independent of opponent, one side is ripe to be faded and the other is on the verge of its best game.
Handicapper's toolbox
A different concept every Monday, and how to apply it on Saturday.
Be aware of not only what coordinators bring to their side of the ball overall, but also their impact on specific series
In the second look ahead of 2017, we pointed to the loss of Gene Chizik as one of the key factors in North Carolina's impending decline. Most coaches are only elite schematic talents on one side of the ball or not at all, so most are only as good as their lieutenants to some extent. Larry Fedora is a top offensive mind, but his overall program culture leaves him relying heavily on his coordinator to forge the team's defensive identity.
Dabo Swinney has become a top coach without an elite Xs-and-Os pedigree. His team will often only be as good as its coordinators, but the strong program culture he's created provides a high floor even with league-average talent in the assistants' chairs. With big-time coordinators, Swinney's Tigers can really shine, and there are few Clemson observers who wouldn't say that reigning Broyles Award winner Brent Venables has been fantastic in his role and one of the best assistant coaches in the land.
Swinney became an ACC head coach in 2008, the same year as Paul Johnson, and Georgia Tech is a permanent crossover opponent for Clemson. The pair also faced off in the 2009 ACC Championship Game, and in the first five meetings Johnson's Jackets bested Swinney's Tigers four times, piling up an average of 293 rushing yards. Since Venables became Clemson's defensive coordinator, it's the Tigers who have won four of five, with the Jackets' rushing average slashed to 200 yards. And the Clemson defense has shown steady improvement against Johnson's unique option offense. In chronological order, here are the total yards allowed by Venables' unit in five games versus Tech: 483-440-353-230-124. As Swinney said about the Tech offense during last week's open date, "They don't freak us out anymore."
Venables has clearly taken an increasingly talented pool of players and forged one of the nation's most consistent defenses. The handicapper's task is to look beyond what everybody knows about the impact that great coordinators make, and try to find specific matchups where that impact manifests itself more than others. This is one of those spots, and those who like the Jackets plus the points this week will probably have to count on the Tech defense to win the day.
Chalk bits
Projecting the rise and fall of regimes is certainly a central focus of our work, and with that come predictions about specific coaching changes, searches and hires. With more and more bookmakers offering coaching-related props, we're not opposed to wading into those markets from time to time.
The two most important general rules of predicting coaching hires are:
1) If the previous regime was successful, athletic directors will attempt to find someone that they believe replicates the qualities that led to the success. If it failed, the new direction will be diametrically opposed. That's true for traits like offensive versus defensive background, ties to the school versus not, head coaching or NFL experience versus not, older versus younger and so on.
2) Coaches who have formerly served as an assistant at the school cash at a very high rate. Sure, there are always a handful of guys coaching at their alma maters, but the real litmus test is past experience as an assistant. Pick any point in history and count the number of FBS head coaches who had at some previous point in their careers been assistants at the school, and it'll probably be approaching 40 percent.
Those are the two most basic tenets for handicapping coaching hires. This year's props are just starting to emerge at the books that indulge in that sort of thing, so be on the lookout. There's not space to get expansive about the specifics, but here are three picks with multiple factors pointing toward them, and while things change rapidly on the coaching carousel, we'd consider these pretty good plays as of now at 15-1 or better.
Tennessee: Brent Venables
Ole Miss: Frank Wilson
Kansas State: Kevin Sumlin
