IG:
Read the previous post ... the panel of political experts I refer to are from a television program I watched last night. The Powell mention is from a State Department webpage and is taken from a speech by him to Egyptian leader I-forget-his-name. Two completely different things.
As for there being no opposition to Saddam, the majority of the internet would disagree with you. There were/are several groups opposed to Saddam. The principle issue surrounding them was that they did not necessarily agree with one another in how to run a post-Saddam regime (including a rejection of a US-led regime,) nor did any of them welcome US military action (although the INC eventually came around once it became clear that they would be the principle leaders in Iraq's new gov't.) Two of the largest opposition groups were Kurdish, highly problematic for the US since Turkey, one of their biggest allies in the region, would risk a Kurdish insurgence themselves should Iraq be deemed an 'example' to Turkey's Kurds. The INC was a strong opposition group, in large part because of the backing it received from the Pentagon until 1995, when, I guess, the Clinton admin abandoned them. In fact, as I was reading, I found several sources who thought that re-funding the INC was the way to go.
Also, it is important to note that Saddam's hold on power was diminishing. It's not like he was a popular guy, his army was only 400,000 people and the sanctions were working, inhumane though they were. Again, you can find numerous sources, including quotes from Powell (previously mentioned,) Rumsfeld, Rice and a bunch of journalists and others who state that Saddam's regime was weakening. It is conceivable that a regeneration of the INC (and others) who had met several times with other opposition groups in the two years preceding the war to discuss unification, could have been successful given Saddam's weakening hold on his people.
Here are some quotes that give evidence of the existence of opposition groups in Iraq:
Dec 17, 2002:
"Leith Kubba, an Iraqi analyst at Washington-based think-tank the National Endowment for Democracy believes the Bush administration is distancing itself from tribal leaders, the Kurds and the Shia Muslims ... They are the most relevant on the ground but their political agenda is so problematic in the long term that they are not being taken on board,he said ... Dr Alani believes that the US is coming round to the view that its best option in the case of Iraq is to create instability and encourage a military revolt inside Iraq - perhaps with the assistance of some US special forces as in the case of Afghanistan.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/1853522.stm
From August 8, 2002:
"Washington began looking for potential opponents to Hussein after the 1991 Gulf War ended with him still in power.
The U.S. began funding groups that oppose Hussein, and continued to do so even as tensions developed among the groups. Some in the U.S. government also doubt the groups' effectiveness in opposing Hussein.
A key opposition group is the Iraqi National Congress. The INC is an umbrella organization led by Ahmed Chalabi, a Shi'a Muslim exile based in London. The U.S. government helped establish the group.
Its members include the patriotic union of Kurdistan, a group of minority Kurds in northern Iraq. Jalal Talabani leads the PUK. The INC also represents: The Constitutional Monarchy Movement led by the exiled Iraqi royal family, which was overthrown by the military in 1958; the INA, a group of Iraqi military officials who have defected and now live outside Iraq; and the Supreme Council of the Islamic revolution in Iraq, a Shi'a group based in Iran ... In Washington today, INC Member Sharif Ali Bin al- Hussein, head of the Constitutional Monarchy Movement, appeared at a crowded news conference. Al-Hussein denied the Iraqi opposition is divided, and he said the Iraqi people would not fight to defend Saddam Hussein's regime ...
[Interviewer]: Do you think that the only way to get rid of Saddam Hussein is for the U.S. to take military action? Do you see any alternative?
SHARIF ALI BIN AL-HUSSEIN: I think, had we had more support from the international community and from regional countries, we could have done the job ourselves.
But the United States' decision is its own decision. We can't influence that decision and I think military action is based on the interests of the United States.
We intend to take advantage of that, and we intend to minimize as much as possible casualties to the Iraqi people.
Link:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/july-dec02/opposition_8-8.html
From Richard Perle (post 9/11, in 2001) on the INC and Washington's opinion of them:
Q: There seems to be a bit of a schizophrenic attitude toward the Iraqi National Congress in Washington. Can you define that for us and what it means?
A: Yes. The INC is highly regarded on Capitol Hill, and I believe highly regarded by a number of people who know the INC leadership well. It is not held in high regard by the Department of State and the Central Intelligence Agency, who are, together, the architects of the failed Iraq policy, including the mistakes of 1991 and repeated failures to deal with Saddam since then.
Q: So how has that translated into the debate that is ongoing in Washington right now over future moves?
It's very clear that the CIA and the State Department are energetic opponents of support to the Iraqi opposition, partly because they believe that we are safe. That's going to get serious reconsideration when we examine the prospect that Saddam Hussein could -- and very possibly will -- transfer weapons of mass destruction to anonymous terrorists, and thereby escape the retaliatory capabilities that have always been the basis for the theory that he's in a box and can't get out.
And a nice handy list of
some of Saddam's opposition groups:
Iraqi National Congress (INC)
An umbrella group founded in 1992. It has about 1,000 members, although many belong to its partner organizations. It has no armed forces.
Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP)
Based in northwest Iraq. Founded in 1946. Enjoys extensive self-government within an area off-limits to Iraqi military aircraft. The no-fly zone was set up by the United Nations after the Gulf War and is enforced by U.S. and British military jets. The KDP claims to have about 60,000 active and reserve forces. Others say it has 15,000 active troops and an additional 25,000 in its militia.
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)
Based in northeast Iraq, also within the northern no-fly zone. It claims it can mobilize 100,000 fighters. Others say it has about 15,000 members and fighters. Its arsenal includes T-54 tanks, 60mm and 120mm mortars, rifles, and anti-aircraft guns and missiles.
Constitutional Monarchy Movement (CMM)
A moderate organization aiming to restore the monarchy that was ousted in 1958. Based in London.
Iraqi National Accord (INA)
Based in London. Founded in 1976. Works closely with the United States. It has several hundred members.
Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI)
Based in Tehran, Iran. An umbrella group that claims to represent anti-government Shiite Muslims
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So, when you say that there was NO OPPOSITION, do you mean that there was no opposition, or that there was no opposition that fully satisfied US interests?