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Canadian bacon: 2010 CFL season betting preview

Football is still a couple months away – unless you’re north of the border. The CFL is back with some three-down pigskin and so is out expert, who breaks down the league before the CFL kicks off on Canada Day.

East Conference

1. Montreal Aloutette
s

Four key players left the Als’ nest in the offseason but already their replacements are proving to be capable. Veteran Paul Lambert will take the spot of retiree Bryan Chiu at center and will most likely be replaced at left guard by the young and promising Luc Brodeur-Jourdain.

Kerry Taylor left for the NFL but Tim Maypray showed he can be as explosive for punts and kickoff returns. The void left by the departure of tackle Kerone Williams will most likely be filled by either Jermaine McElveen or J.P. Bekasiak. Finally, both Paul Woldu and De’Audra Dix have shown they have what it takes to be efficient at the corner position left empty when Davis Sanchez moved to Vancouver.

The Alouettes have the players to go back to the Grey Cup game in 2010. But all is not peachy. They will face an extremely tough schedule that starts with three games in Western Canada and far too many games played in four days intervals. A few injuries to key positions could make life more difficult than last year for coach Trestman’s men.

2. Hamilton Tiger Cats

The Tiger Cats have improved throughout last season and kept improving in the offseason by acquiring some good players like kicker Sandro DeAngelis, tackle Jason Jimenez (who will miss the first nine games because of an injury) and DB’s Jason Shivers and Will Poole.

The TiCats have two good QB’s in Kevin Glenn and Quinton Porter and some good receivers like Dave Stala and Chris Bauman. They don’t quite have the team to challenge the Alouettes’ domination in the Eastern Conference but they will have a winning record and give their opponents a tough challenge week after week.

3. Winnipeg Blue Bombers

The good news for the Blue Bombers fans is that they finally have a head coach that should get the best of a team that is not lacking talent in Paul LaPolice. Quarterbacks Buck Pierce and Steven Jyles will prove more efficient than their predecessors Stefan LeFors and Michael Bishop.

Again this year, halfbacks Fred Reid and Yvenson Bernard will burn defensive squads unwilling to sacrifice to stop the running game. The Bombers still don’t have all it takes to take first place but the summer and fall of 2010 promise to be much more pleasant than 2009 in Winnipeg.

4. Toronto Argonauts

The least we can say is that the Argos fans didn’t have much to rejoice in 2009. Their team had the worst offence and the worst record in the league. The Argos can’t do worst than last year, can they?

Is Cleo Lemon the QB they needed? Will Jeremaine Copeland bring some fireworks on offence? Will cornerback Byron Parker give more depth to a defensive squad that often kept this team in games last season?

The thing is that question marks are more numerous in Toronto than answers. Maybe the Argos will manage to win more than three games but one thing is for sure, they will be last in the East.

West Conference

1. B.C. Lion
s

The Lions are coming off a rare season with a losing record in 2009. But Wally Buono did what was needed to bring back this team to the top of the West Conference. Two former Alouettes, CB Davis Sanchez and DT Keron Williams will bring more depth to the defence while the acquisitions of running backs Jerome Messam and Jamal Robertson will give even more punch to their running game.

It all comes down to see if Casey Printers can go back to the performances that made him one of the best QB’s and if he can exploit a group of receivers capable of ripping apart almost any secondary in this league. If that is the case, the Lions will be the team to beat in the West this season.

2. Saskatchewan Roughriders

The Roughriders will undoubtedly want to avenge the Grey Cup they lost to the Alouettes despite leading during 60 minutes of play. But this team lost three key players on defence - linemen Stevie Baggs and John Chick as well as defensive back Eddie Davis.

Darian Durant will be supported by veteran QB Ryan Dinwiddie and the OL will have more depth with the arrival of Kelly Bates and Dan Goodspeed. Dominique Dorsey will be the man to watch on kick returns.

The road to the Grey Cup is long and arduous and the conquest of the West shouldn’t be any easier this year than in the recent ones.

3. Calgary Stampeders

John Hufnagel is one of the most brilliant strategists in the CFL. But his army has been depleted by the exodus of some important soldiers during the offseason, starting with receivers Jeremaine Copeland and Brett Ralph, OL Jeff Pilon and DL Jim Davis. The good news is that Henry Burris will be back and must still be considered one of the best quarterbacks this league as to offer.

Nik Lewis and Romby Bryant will keep finding the opening and provide him with good targets to throw at. This team will be even better when Ken-Yon Rambo gets off the injury list.

On defence, the likes of Mike LaBinjo and DeVone Claybrooks will be terrorizing the opposing offences. The Stampeders will have much to do to pass the Lions and the Roughriders.

4. Edmonton Eskimos

The Eskimos could play.500 or better in 2010 and still finish last in the West. No doubt this team has talent despite the departures of WR Maurice Mann an DB’s Kelly Malveaux and Scott Gordon. The Eskimos acquired some interesting players during the offseason, including Andre Talbot and Brad Smith, LB Javier Glatt and DB Lawrence Gordon.

Also keep an eye on young running back Pascal Fils, who starred with Sherbrooke Vert et Or. He will start the season on the practice squad but you can bet he will see some pro action soon enough.

It will also be interesting to see how the Eskimos will adjust to their new synthetic turf at Commonwealth Stadium after years of taking advantage of being the only team to play its home games on natural grass.
 

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Long Sheet

Thursday, July 1


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MONTREAL (17 - 3) at SASKATCHEWAN (11 - 8 - 1) - 7/1/2010, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 138-104 ATS (+23.6 Units) in all games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 138-104 ATS (+23.6 Units) in all lined games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 92-56 ATS (+30.4 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 125-94 ATS (+21.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 38-18 ATS (+18.2 Units) in July games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 4-1 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (3 - 15) at CALGARY (11 - 8 - 1) - 7/1/2010, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1996.
TORONTO is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 3-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 4-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Friday, July 2

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HAMILTON (9 - 10) at WINNIPEG (7 - 11) - 7/2/2010, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 4-2 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 4-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, July 4

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BRITISH COLUMBIA (9 - 11) at EDMONTON (9 - 10) - 7/4/2010, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 55-79 ATS (-31.9 Units) as a favorite since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-3 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-3 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Week 1

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Trend Report
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Thursday, July 1

7:00 PM
MONTREAL vs. SASKATCHEWAN
Montreal is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Saskatchewan
Montreal is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Montreal
Saskatchewan is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

10:00 PM
TORONTO vs. CALGARY
Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
Calgary is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto


Friday, July 2

8:00 PM
HAMILTON vs. WINNIPEG
Hamilton is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing Hamilton
Winnipeg is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Hamilton


Sunday, July 4

7:00 PM
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. EDMONTON
British Columbia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games on the road
Edmonton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against British Columbia
Edmonton is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games at home
 

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