Here's a little system i was thinkin about this mornin for soccer:
With 8 tickets, ranging in price from $3 to $9, one can cover all combos of 3 soccer teams a certain way and as long as the Home team wins or a Draws and doesn't lose, you still make an overall profit.
Lol, the difficult thing is finding 3 soccer teams in that range of odds that won't lose, but it seems that there have been a good stream of home favorites that win or draw at least, and this is where i think one can pick their best shots to win...
Something to think about though is the whole idea of betting against yourself with the spread of combos, and guaranteeing that you will end up with at least 7 losing tickets...
But i kinda like the idea of going for a much surer smaller profit, and if you pick your spots well you could end up with a steadier profit stream, than if you go for the higher possible profits with the much lesser probability.
As long as the system hits every 2 out of 3 weeks, you'd still make an overall profit... $60 profit - $42 = $18 profit...
Multiply your wagers by 10, and for $420 spent it would be $300 profit per week...
That's as long as none of the Visitor teams win...
With 8 tickets, ranging in price from $3 to $9, one can cover all combos of 3 soccer teams a certain way and as long as the Home team wins or a Draws and doesn't lose, you still make an overall profit.
Lol, the difficult thing is finding 3 soccer teams in that range of odds that won't lose, but it seems that there have been a good stream of home favorites that win or draw at least, and this is where i think one can pick their best shots to win...
Something to think about though is the whole idea of betting against yourself with the spread of combos, and guaranteeing that you will end up with at least 7 losing tickets...
But i kinda like the idea of going for a much surer smaller profit, and if you pick your spots well you could end up with a steadier profit stream, than if you go for the higher possible profits with the much lesser probability.
As long as the system hits every 2 out of 3 weeks, you'd still make an overall profit... $60 profit - $42 = $18 profit...
Multiply your wagers by 10, and for $420 spent it would be $300 profit per week...
That's as long as none of the Visitor teams win...
I spent the mornin sortin through some soccer standings, tryin to find the high value Home teams as you suggested and it was interesting how the team that you instinctively picked - Sochaux - actually ended up on top of the sheet.
I found the Home Win %, the Home Win and Draw %, and the Visitor Win % (the percentage of times that they win playing Away).
Then I ranked them so that the teams with the highest Home Win % and highest Home Win and Draw %, and lowest Visitor Win % came out on top.
and there is Sochaux on top like you suggested hehe...
So according to the sheet, the teams at the top are more likely to win or draw at home and less likely to win on the road, so there is value in playin them with the system mentioned at the start of the thread...
In other words, these are the teams most likely to get the best odds for winning or drawing at home... in theory...
Any thoughts or further refinements are welcome...
I found the Home Win %, the Home Win and Draw %, and the Visitor Win % (the percentage of times that they win playing Away).
Then I ranked them so that the teams with the highest Home Win % and highest Home Win and Draw %, and lowest Visitor Win % came out on top.
and there is Sochaux on top like you suggested hehe...
So according to the sheet, the teams at the top are more likely to win or draw at home and less likely to win on the road, so there is value in playin them with the system mentioned at the start of the thread...
In other words, these are the teams most likely to get the best odds for winning or drawing at home... in theory...
Any thoughts or further refinements are welcome...
So, in theory, one should be able to look at all the upcoming matches this weekend, and rank the games according to the top value Home teams playing against the Visitor teams with the worst winning road records:
So the games at the top of that list should be the top plays for the Home Not to Lose system... in theory...
So the games at the top of that list should be the top plays for the Home Not to Lose system... in theory...
I took a look at last weekend's games and used this week's numbers to see how the games ranked...
please bear in mind i realize that this is not an accurate backtest, and is misleading, but i figured it would give a general idea as the teams would have had somewhat similar stats going into last weekend...
it is interesting to see how outta all the games, only 5 visitors won, and 4 of those 5 visitor winners were favorites...
also nice to see that the Visitor winners were mainly from the middle/lower section, and that out of the top ranked 12 games, all either ended in a Home win or Draw... unfortunately most of these odds were lower though...
it's interesting to look at this because it gives a future insight to what we might be faced with this coming weekend, and how to plan for that...
please bear in mind i realize that this is not an accurate backtest, and is misleading, but i figured it would give a general idea as the teams would have had somewhat similar stats going into last weekend...
it is interesting to see how outta all the games, only 5 visitors won, and 4 of those 5 visitor winners were favorites...
also nice to see that the Visitor winners were mainly from the middle/lower section, and that out of the top ranked 12 games, all either ended in a Home win or Draw... unfortunately most of these odds were lower though...
it's interesting to look at this because it gives a future insight to what we might be faced with this coming weekend, and how to plan for that...
ok, here are the approximate book odds filtered between 1.7 and 2.4 by betexplorer for the upcoming matches on poorline this weekend comin up...
bear in mind that poorline will give us a poorer line on the game with odds lower...
and here again is the pick sheet using the top value Home team stats vs the worst road teams:
bear in mind that poorline will give us a poorer line on the game with odds lower...
and here again is the pick sheet using the top value Home team stats vs the worst road teams:
Ok, now that we have the poorline odds, here are the top 4 ranked games with those odds:
eliminating Lille because of the low odds, here are the other 3 rotated with the original system, with some changes to the ticket size because of the different odds... payouts are approx:
gonna look at this deeper, including doing a steve type key rotation instead as well...
eliminating Lille because of the low odds, here are the other 3 rotated with the original system, with some changes to the ticket size because of the different odds... payouts are approx:
gonna look at this deeper, including doing a steve type key rotation instead as well...
Instead of dropping Lille because of the low odds, just use it as a key like you said, yup!
Plus Sochaux is the 4th place pick, so eliminate it... like you said, yup!
So I made up this combo sheet based on your idea:
I looked at a soccer prediction site i like and it has Lille winnin 4-0, so i don't think we need to play 4 more tickets covering the draw for that game... like you said, yup!
Plus Sochaux is the 4th place pick, so eliminate it... like you said, yup!
So I made up this combo sheet based on your idea:
I looked at a soccer prediction site i like and it has Lille winnin 4-0, so i don't think we need to play 4 more tickets covering the draw for that game... like you said, yup!
60h lille 1.25
49h mallorca 1.6
47h lazio 1.85
x $50
____________________
60h lille 1.25
49h mallorca 1.6
47t fiorentina/lazio 3.0
x $30
____________________
60h lille 1.25
49t gijon/mallorca 3.4
47h lazio 1.85
x $25
____________________
60h lille 1.25
49t gijon/mallorca 3.4
47t fiorentina/lazio 3.0
x $15
49h mallorca 1.6
47h lazio 1.85
x $50
____________________
60h lille 1.25
49h mallorca 1.6
47t fiorentina/lazio 3.0
x $30
____________________
60h lille 1.25
49t gijon/mallorca 3.4
47h lazio 1.85
x $25
____________________
60h lille 1.25
49t gijon/mallorca 3.4
47t fiorentina/lazio 3.0
x $15
btw, another good bet would probably be to play Lille, Mallorca and Lazio straight up to win, it is more risky but the profit is much higher if it hits...
Here's that ticket:
LAZ WIN BY 01 PTS.
ODDS 1.85
47 SCR FIO @ LAZ
2011-01-29
MALL WIN BY 01 PTS.
ODDS 1.60
49 SCR GIJO @ MALL
2011-01-29
LILL WIN BY 01 PTS.
ODDS 1.25
60 SCR LNS @ LILL
2011-01-29
All 3 correct pays
WAGER $100
X ODDS 3.70
=PAYS $370.00
Here's that ticket:
LAZ WIN BY 01 PTS.
ODDS 1.85
47 SCR FIO @ LAZ
2011-01-29
MALL WIN BY 01 PTS.
ODDS 1.60
49 SCR GIJO @ MALL
2011-01-29
LILL WIN BY 01 PTS.
ODDS 1.25
60 SCR LNS @ LILL
2011-01-29
All 3 correct pays
WAGER $100
X ODDS 3.70
=PAYS $370.00
