California vs USC on 11/05 by blackwiseguy
35
FINAL
41
Game California
+22 -112
WIN
Won 4.45
Handicapper Analysis
0
A year after faltering to an embarrassing 4-8 record, the USC Trojans have found new life under Lincoln Riley. At 7-1 with their lone loss coming by a single point at Utah, they still have hopes of capturing the conference title and making noise nationally. First, they need to take care of business against a California team that has lost four straight games, all against Pac-12 opposition.
There’s a reason the Trojans are large favorites in this contest. They have the ninth-best scoring offense in the country at 41 points per game and are led by star quarterback Caleb Williams, who threw for a career-best 411 passing yards and five touchdowns in his last game against Arizona.
Perhaps the most impressive thing about his performance against the Wildcats is that he put up those insane numbers without the help of his two-star receivers, Jordan Addison and Mario Williams. Both were out with injury and their status for Week 10 is uncertain.
Although the final score (42-24) may not be a great indicator, the Golden Bears played a fine game against Oregon a week ago — for one half, at least. Cal held a 10-7 lead with 13:08 to play in the second quarter but ultimately surrendered 28 consecutive points to lose the game going away.
Both Jack Plummer and Kai Millner saw time at quarterback, adding some controversy over who will start and see the majority of snaps this week against USC. Millner completed 8 of 11 passes for 114 yards (10.4 yards per attempt) and two touchdowns, making a strong case for more playing time.
Whoever is under center should be able to move the ball against a USC defense that ranks 119th in success rate allowed (excluding garbage time). The Trojans may have a great offense, but the defense is simply not up to par. They rank 120th in standard down success rate, so California should be able to stay ahead of the chains and avoid an utter blowout.
USC’s rush defense has been the primary culprit of a leaky defense, as the Trojans rank 128th in expected points added (EPA), 127th in success rate, and 116th in explosiveness against the run.
I can’t lay a spread this big in conference play when the favorite has so many holes defensively. Therefore, give me the points with Cal.
There’s a reason the Trojans are large favorites in this contest. They have the ninth-best scoring offense in the country at 41 points per game and are led by star quarterback Caleb Williams, who threw for a career-best 411 passing yards and five touchdowns in his last game against Arizona.
Perhaps the most impressive thing about his performance against the Wildcats is that he put up those insane numbers without the help of his two-star receivers, Jordan Addison and Mario Williams. Both were out with injury and their status for Week 10 is uncertain.
Although the final score (42-24) may not be a great indicator, the Golden Bears played a fine game against Oregon a week ago — for one half, at least. Cal held a 10-7 lead with 13:08 to play in the second quarter but ultimately surrendered 28 consecutive points to lose the game going away.
Both Jack Plummer and Kai Millner saw time at quarterback, adding some controversy over who will start and see the majority of snaps this week against USC. Millner completed 8 of 11 passes for 114 yards (10.4 yards per attempt) and two touchdowns, making a strong case for more playing time.
Whoever is under center should be able to move the ball against a USC defense that ranks 119th in success rate allowed (excluding garbage time). The Trojans may have a great offense, but the defense is simply not up to par. They rank 120th in standard down success rate, so California should be able to stay ahead of the chains and avoid an utter blowout.
USC’s rush defense has been the primary culprit of a leaky defense, as the Trojans rank 128th in expected points added (EPA), 127th in success rate, and 116th in explosiveness against the run.
I can’t lay a spread this big in conference play when the favorite has so many holes defensively. Therefore, give me the points with Cal.
