C2 Method / Week 9 AFL!

[SERocks]

Sorry these are late, but here they are.....

Picks this week are:
Orlando - Home Fav
Colorado - Away Dog
New York - Away Fav
Philadelphia - Home Fav
Georgia - Away Dog
Nashville - Home Dog
Los Angeles - Home Dog
San Jose - Away Fav

Play all dogs on the ML and the Home Fav SU. Skip the Away Favs.

-SERocks

 

[SERocks]

I have done some study on this approach we use and have determined that isolating home and away stats produces much better results. Here are the Home/Away Isolated Stats for the 2004 AFL season. This is WEEK 6 through WK 17. When isolating the home and away stats it takes about five weeks of stats before you have enough information to work from, hence the start in WK 6.

-SERocks

 

[SERocks]

WK 9 Home Away Isolated Picks

This week's Home/Away Isolated Stat picks are:

Austin
Colorado
New York
Philadelphia
New Orleans
Nashville
Los Angeles
San Jose

Six of these games have the same picks based on overall stats. (Colorado, New York, Philadelphia, Nashville, Los Angeles and San Jose). I would feel comfortable betting all those teams with the exception of the away favorites, New York and San Jose. If you bet those, bet them to win SU and bet them small. The Dogs that are picked in both systems should be bet SU. Those are Colorado, Nashville and Los Angeles. Those I would bet at a normal unit level. The Home Fav is Philadelphia and that one I would also bet at a normal unit level.

Those are my thoughts....good luck.

-SERocks

 

[MathProf]

If you are using past performance to generate your
picks, then should the picks be available prior to
theposting of the opening line, which
occurs on Tuesday AM?

Good luck this week

 

[AFLGuru]

MathProf-- We all agreed to be mum before the lines come out on Tuesday because it's us vs. Daringly in day 1. Sorry about that buddy.

--AFLGuru

 

[SERocks]

I can generate my picks as soon as game stats are available for the prior week, so that would be what, late Sunday night I suppose. However, real life gets in the way of things and this week I did not even do the home/away isolated picks until this morning. I am not overly concerned with lines anyway. It is obviously better to get the best line available, but what the line is does not affect these picks in any manner. They are the same whether made on Sunday night or Friday morning.

Sorry they are late this week, but this time of year I am very very busy.....

-SERocks

 

[AFLGuru]

Also very true... if you're just projecting sides, there's no problem... It's if you're sitting there and posting, for example "If New York is anything less than -7 against Columbus, take New York... if not, take Columbus."

That's giving info to the one you're trying to beat. But if it's just sides and su generated, there's no problems. Everyone knows who SHOULD win the majority of these games on a week to week basis.

 

[Mistermj]

Nice Work SERocks!

Hey everyone. I've been away for a while but I see SERocks has been keeping the posts going on his C2 method.

It looks like SERocks has refined his method even more by breaking down the home and away stats. It sure worked this week...wow. Congrats Rocks! Your C2 personal picks kicked butt.

If anyone is interested in more in depth posts and info on this method go to our site in my profile.

We will try to put something over here every week...but SERocks is very busy right now and its hard to do much.

 

[MathProf]

Sure, makes perfect sense to wait until opening lines are posted.

I was interested more from an academic standpoint; you and
C2 should be able to hit opening lines and then post.

Good luck with LV

 

[Mistermj]

C2 Method Week 9 Results

I just wanted to get the C2 picks for this week into a more visual format. Your picks were kind of lost in the middle of a paragraph in your prior post.

Again...congrats SERocks! I know how hard you worked on this. It looks like your adjustments might be paying off. Can't expect this every week...but wow! It sure looks promising...and its starting to build some history with your backtests of 2004. Nice!


Colorado +3 (risking -52.50 to win +50) <!--emo&-->

<!--endemo-->
Colorado +133 (risking -50 to win +66.50) <!--emo&-->

<!--endemo-->
Philadelphia -7 (risking -100 to win +102) <!--emo&-->

<!--endemo-->
Nashville +2.5 (risking -111 to win +100) <!--emo&h43r:-->

<!--endemo-->
Los Angeles +3 (risking -54.50 to win +50) <!--emo&-->

<!--endemo-->
Los Angeles +129 (risking -50 to win +64.50) <!--emo&-->

<!--endemo-->
New York for game (risking -100 to win +39.20) <!--emo&-->

<!--endemo-->
San Jose for game (risking -100 to win +64.50)

 

[MathProf]

Great Week for C2 - Congrats

Mr. MJ thanks for organizing picks so we can see the results clearly

 

[Mistermj]

Great job SERocks!

Week 9 AFL Results for C2 method personal picks of SERocks.


Colorado +3 (risking -52.50 to win +50) <!--emo&-->

<!--endemo-->
Colorado +133 (risking -50 to win +66.50) <!--emo&-->

<!--endemo-->
Philadelphia -7 (risking -100 to win +102) <!--emo&-->

<!--endemo-->
Nashville +2.5 (risking -111 to win +100) <!--emo&h43r:-->

<!--endemo-->
Los Angeles +3 (risking -54.50 to win +50) <!--emo&-->

<!--endemo-->
Los Angeles +129 (risking -50 to win +64.50) <!--emo&-->

<!--endemo-->
New York for game (risking -100 to win +39.20) <!--emo&-->

<!--endemo-->
San Jose for game (risking -100 to win +64.50) <!--emo&-->

<!--endemo-->