C2 Method / Week 8 AFL!

SERocks · Mar 16, 2005

The picks this week are:

Los Angeles +1
Grand Rapids +17
Orlando -1.5
New York -6.5
Arizona +1.5
Chicago +4
Philadelphia +9
Colorado -13

The way to play these appears to be to play home favorites straight up, skip away favorites and play the dogs straight up.

So this week the bets would be moneyline all games except the two away favorites, Orlando and New York.

Let's see how that does.

-SERocks

AFLGuru · Mar 16, 2005

I think there's some questionable "AFL" calls on here, but I'm not going to ridicule the system before it produces any significant amount of result... Just be known that Philyaw still might not play for Chicago, making any play on Chicago questionable at the current moment... there's a reason I'm not TOUCHING that game.

scottw · Mar 16, 2005

Philyaw is officially listed on the injury report as "Like you think we're actually going to tell you?"

TOMMYB · Mar 16, 2005

I See The Sj Game As A Push With That Line , And I Would Be On The Other Side On The Rest Of Those Picks . One Of Us Is Going To Have A Very Bad Week I Think. Since My Bets Are Already Made The Best I Could Hope For Is To Go 50 / 50 With You . In Any Event Good Luck This Week.

daringly · Mar 17, 2005

Tomm B - is something wrong with your keyboard? Why do you capitalize the first letter of each word? I see this from a couple different people, and it really drives me NUTS! I'd much rather see all lower case, or even all shouting. But the effort required to capitalize one letter in each word, just to drive a few select people crazy... You must be part of a larger conspiracy organized for the sole purpose of shredding what's left of my sanity.

AFLGuru · Mar 17, 2005

daringly said:
Tomm B - is something wrong with your keyboard? Why do you capitalize the first letter of each word? I see this from a couple different people, and it really drives me NUTS! I'd much rather see all lower case, or even all shouting. But the effort required to capitalize one letter in each word, just to drive a few select people crazy... You must be part of a larger conspiracy organized for the sole purpose of shredding what's left of my sanity.

Lol... it's not so bad Tommy

SERocks · Mar 17, 2005

Home Away stats isolated.

Here is an interesting thing. I have no backup of this in the NFL or AFL, and only have done this on one week....this coming week in the AFL, Week 8.

What I did was use the same stats that I use to calculate the C2, but instead of overall stats, I isolated the stats to home and away.

When I did this and ran through all the calculations there were only three teams that lined up the same as the overall stats C2 computations. This week those teams are:

New York
Chicago
Colorado

Every other game produced the other result. Not sure what it all means. It will be very interesting to see how they do. I would love to backtest home/away only stats and see how it all lines up. Maybe I will get an opportunity to do so in the near future.

Fun stuff. Good Luck to all.

-SERocks

SERocks · Mar 17, 2005

AFLGuru...MJ told me you had some historical AFL stats. I don't really have stats in any easily usable format. If you would be interested in sharing could you email me and we can discuss exactly what my needs are. I think my email is in my profile.

Thanks
SERocks

PS - I just changed my user options to accept email, but it appears to not have gone through the system yet. So...if it tells you that I am not accepting email, try again in a couple hours. If that doesn't work, we can figure it out on here.

AFLGuru · Mar 17, 2005

Most anything I have you can find very readily on ats411.com. If you can't find it there, check statfox, though I have found ats411 to be best. If you're looking for data past 2002 or so, check for Brewers. I don't have very many "stats" per se past this season, just a lot of prior knowledge. That being said, try Brewers for some actual stats or either of those websites. If there's anything I can help you with though, don't be afraid to ask.

SERocks · Mar 18, 2005

The problem with ATS411 is that they don't seem to provide individual game stats. The stats are either combined for the full season to date, or you really have to dig. I need individual game by game information.

I can get that over at statfox, but it is not an easy download for me. I have to copy each team into an excel spreadsheet team by team and then I need to do a lot of organization on the data before I can actually use it.

So it appears no matter where I get the data from, it is a chore to just get it to a useable format.

Would be nice if these sites provided a download capability.

Ah well. Cannot have everything!

-SERocks

AFLGuru · Mar 18, 2005

ATS411 DOES have individual game stats for the last 20 games a team has played over any period of time. The problem with it is once you go back to the teams that no longer exist, the opponent name is blank. So the information is there, but it does require some work to figure out who's who. That's the site I used when I figured out that ATS record of the massive dogs on the road... That's why GR is gonna get crushed tonight.