BUNDESLIGA (Germany) - 2012/13

[ARUKIDNME]

First wager in Germany. Have watched some matches and do follow what's happening around the league. So here goes....

Sunday Sept 23, 2012
11:30AM ET

I the Europa League on Thursday I took Twente vs. Hannover96 to go over the number and they did with 4 goals scored in a 2-2 draw.

I expect the same result today as Hoffenheim must produce a result or face further embarrassment as the bottom dweller of the table and without a point.

Hoffenheim will be missing their star goalkeeper Tim Wiese with a muscle tear and that will only add to their problematic and vulnerable defensive corps. They could have had a better result in a couple of their matches, but the poor defending cost them points.

Hannover is back from the Europa League and will likely be tired or may start off flat. Hoff needs to come out strong early and catch a quick one; however the best offensive team is clashing with the worst defensive team and I think that’s enough for us to get the result we expect.

Hannover96
In their last 9 competitive matches they have scored 32 goals and allowed 11. That’s 4 goals per match average.

Hoffenheim
In their last 9 competitive matches, they have scored 11 goals and allowed 22. That’s 3.5 goals per match average.

With the ability to score goals coupled with the poorly defending Hoffenheim side I can’t see how this won’t go over. The low number scares me a bit, as I am suspect that the FIX may be in play here. So my unit amount will be just as cautious.

However, (with tongue in cheek) I strongly feel that the books and the public believe Hannover will be too fatigued to give a crap (I disagree)and that’s why we see a DNB handicap and a low total.

Hoffenheim vs. Hannover96 Over 2.5 (-130) 2 units

!~))!

 

[roundrobin11]

GL... liking Hannover PK myself at +105. Hoffenheim are in such poor form at the moment while Hannover have been playing excellent. The win at +165 even looks nice. I lean over as well, but I see a lot of value in the side. After winning with United and the over this morning, I have some extra cash to throw on this, probably another over/side parlay. With you on it, let's cash.

 

[ARUKIDNME]

September 2012 … -6.6 Units
August 2012 ... +30.5 Units

EPL 14-3-1
La Liga 3-1
Champions League 5-3
Japan League 2-0
German Bundesliga 1-0
League Championship (Eng) 0-1
Europa League 0-4
Turkish Superlig 0-0-1

Tuesday Sept 25, 2012
11:00am ET

Borussia Dortmund Vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Newly promoted Eintracht Frankfurt will be hosting Dortmund who was the German Cup Champions last season beating Bayern Munich in the final 5-2. Since then Dortmund lost the German Super Cup 2-1 to Bayern Munich to kick start the season.

Although Dortmund has been playing well, they have been stretched thinly by the harsh schedule and some teams just can’t cope with that. After a difficult win against AJAX in the Champions League they went to Hamburger and lost 3-2. They just didn’t have the legs to keep up and conceded two quick goals in the 55’ and 59’. It was Hamburger's first win and Dortmund’s 1st loss. This heavy a schedule so early in the season when teams are still adjusting to new players and schemes can negatively affect expectations.

Frankfurt is playing with great emotion since they have been promoted and that should transcend in to this match today. It would be a great feather in their cap if they could beat the defending league champions and being at home will only help matters.

Frankfurt has won all four matches to date, is top of the table and has been finding the back or the net easily. Both teams will be attacking tonight and I expect goals. Dortmund needs a victory and losing to a newly promoted side will be a step down. I really think that this match will end in a 2-2 draw.

In the 8 games that these two clubs have played thus far, 7 of 8 have gove over 2.5 goals and 3 of 8 have gone over 3 goals.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Borussia Dortmund Over 3 (+100) 2 units

Eintracht Frankfurt +0.5 (+110) 1 Units

!~))!

 

[roundrobin11]

I really like Eintracht as well, play Dortmund tough at home. Only reason I didn't make it a play in my thread was because of line movement. Dortmund was -135 when I went to bed last night. They are now -170 at my book (Eintracht moved to +1 at -155). I'll probably wait till the lineups are out.

GL with the over, hope you cash it, but no play myself on it.

 

[varkeyboy]

Ah, I missed these. Good luck....hope u cash in!

 

[rolltide]

eintracht looks horrendous. took the +1 ... hope you can hit the over

 

[roundrobin11]

eintracht looks horrendous. took the +1 ... hope you can hit the over

Yup, I stayed away from them after I saw that line movement. Hope they can get one back for you... and hope you hit that over Aruk.

 

[ARUKIDNME]

I was watching the Juve v Fiore match but when I saw 2-2 I switched to the Frankfurt match and it's nothing short of BEDLUM in the stadium. The supports are going crazy and are urging their side to score a winner against Dortmund.

I wish I was their. It looks like a rat's nest in parts of the stands and if Frankfurt score a winner it will be pandemonium until the whistle.

 

[rolltide]

3-3...nice comeback a couple of times!

 

[ARUKIDNME]

3-3...nice comeback a couple of times!

You won! Nice hit!

Frankfurt are for real. They are exciting to watch. Dortmund must have thought they had the game in hand until the 2 goal comeback. LOL. They are so piised for letting this match escape them.

 

[varkeyboy]

Damn it! I'm upset i missed both of these. Congrats on the 2-0 SWEEP.

 

[ARUKIDNME]

September 2012 … -5.5 Units
August 2012 ... +30.5 Units

EPL 14-3-1
La Liga 3-1
Champions League 5-3
Japan League 2-0
German Bundesliga 3-0
League Championship (Eng) 0-1
English League Cup 0-1
Europa League 0-4
Turkish Superlig 0-0-1

Wednesday September 26, 2012
2:00pm ET

Hannover96 vs. FC Nurnberg

Let’s get right to the point:

Hannover96 vs. FC Nurnberg
· 7 of the last 10 meetings between these clubs has gone OVER 2.5 Goals

Hannover96
· 9 of the last 10 matches played have gone OVER 2.5 Goals

FC Nurnberg
· 8 of the last 10 matches played have gone OVER 2.5 Goals

H96 took a big blow last match losing to Hoffenheim 3-1 on the road. But now they are back home and have a great home record. In fact they have not lost at home since April 2011 in the Bundesliga. Now that’s amazing!

The Reds on the other hand are winners of their last four away matches and have been playing quite well with their only loss 0-1 coming at the hands of newly promoted and this season’s surprise team Frankfurt.

The over is clearly the play here today. Others may suggest that the implications of this match are so great and these teams are tied in the table, that it will be played very tight with very few goals.

Fortunately for us, history has a funny way of repeating itself and I think we will see a 2-2 draw today. Both teams employ a 4-4-2 formation and these similar styles tend to produce goals. I would love to see a goal by the visitors in the first 10 minutes and then all hell should break loose.

Hannover96 vs. FC Nurnberg OVER 2.5 (-120) 3.6 Units

FC Nurnberg +0.5 (-130) 1.3 Units

!~))!!~))!

 

[DialSquares]

love stats like that Aruk - i was going to steal them and post on my thread but i'll just ride it along with you....gl

 

[rolltide]

looks good kidnme

nurnberg last 5 away...3-1-3-2-2 scored
hannover home 2+ goals scored in 8 out of last 9

 

[ARUKIDNME]

Lets hope for the best.

I hope it's as exciting as yesterday's match in Frankfurt.

 

[varkeyboy]

OVER is $$$$$ in the 52'! I love easy winners like this. Thanks Aruk!!!

 

[DialSquares]

what varkey said - i knew i should have stolen the pick and claim it as my own...haha...i think stuttgart and hamburg in german II would be crazy...

 

[ARUKIDNME]

what varkey said - i knew i should have stolen the pick and claim it as my own...haha...i think stuttgart and hamburg in german II would be crazy...

You're not stealing anything.

Post it if you capped it too. This way we can see how strong a choice it is.

After I post I open other threads but never before so we may have duplicates.

Germany is shaping up nicely.

 

[DialSquares]

i didnt have time to cap it - i read your writeup about the match and it fit with all the things i look for...so i didn't cap it so i didn't want to post it.....winner is a winner and that's always good.

 

[ARUKIDNME]

September 2012 … -5.5 Units
August 2012 ... +30.5 Units

EPL 14-3-1
La Liga 3-1
Champions League 5-3
Japan League 2-0
German Bundesliga 5-0
League Championship (Eng) 0-1
English League Cup 0-2
Europa League 0-4
Turkish Superlig 0-0-1

Been a tough month, Up and Down. Took it on the chin in Europa and English Cup.
Should have avoided these matches altogether. Live and learn.

Friday September 28, 2012
2:30pm ET

Fortuna Dusseldorf vs. Shalke04

When I looked at the stats with respect to Dusseldorf; I was totally shocked to see that in the 2011/12 Season in Bundesliga 2 they ONLY LOST ONE MATCH at HOME, a 2-3 result to Paderborn on Dec 17, 2011.

Now in the Bundesliga 1 2012/13, not only have they not lost at home but they have not lost yet this season. They have not conceded a goal either. Dusseldorf has yet to concede a goal with 2 wins and 3 draws.

What is it with these promoted teams? I know in Frankfurt’s case they bought up all the best 2nd Division players and for some reason they are gelling perfectly in the Bundesliga this season.

Now I am not throwing Shalke under the bus. They are a good team and have been playing well. But they have only won 4 of the last 11 away games in the Bundesliga. Another thing to note is the fact that they have commitments in the UEFA Champions League on the horizon which could keep them from fielding a strong squad on the road in hopes of achieving a draw. I expect their manager Huub Stevens to rest some key players.

Either way, Dusseldorf should defend well and their young keeper Giefer should gain another clean sheet.

Fortuna Dusseldorf vs. Shalke04 Draw (+230) 3 Units

Fortuna Dusseldorf vs. Shalke04 Under 2.5 (-130) 3.9 Units

!~))!!~))!