Zachary Cohen takes a look at a Week 13 Monday Night Football meeting between the Browns and Broncos.The Monday Night Football matchup in Week 13 of the 2024 NFL season features the Denver Broncos hosting the Cleveland Browns at Empower Field at Mile High. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 13 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
How To Watch Browns vs. Broncos
When: Monday, December 2nd at 8:15 pm ETWhere: Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado
Channel: ABC/ESPN/ESPN+
Browns vs. Broncos Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, December 1st. Look around for the best prices!Moneyline: Broncos -265, Browns +215
Spread: Broncos -6 (-110), Browns (-110)
Total: Over 42 (-108), Under 42 (-112)
Browns vs. Broncos Analysis
The Browns have a significant rest advantage heading into this game. We last saw Cleveland in the snowy Thursday Night Football win over Pittsburgh on November 21st. So, the Browns have had 10 full days of rest to prepare for the Broncos. However, that’s about the only reason to like Cleveland. This Browns team is just 19th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.025), while the Broncos are second in the NFL in that statistic (-0.118). Also, while Cleveland has been better offensively since Jameis Winston took over at quarterback, the team is just 22nd in the NFL in EPA per play (-0.039) in the four-game span. Meanwhile, since Week 5, Denver has performed as a top-15 team in the league in EPA per play (0.039), which is plenty good enough with an elite defense. And over the last two weeks, the Broncos have an EPA per play of 0.167, so the team is starting to look very dangerous.It’s just hard to trust this Cleveland team to put together a ton of successful drives against an awesome Denver defense. And the other side of the ball might not be much better. Bo Nix has gone from looking like a game manager to a Pro Bowl-caliber signal caller. Over the last three games, Nix has thrown for eight touchdowns and no interceptions. He has also thrown for a total of 580 yards over the last two games. He’s just shredding opponents through the air, and he has Courtland Sutton looking like one of the league’s best wideouts. With that in mind, head coach Sean Payton, an offensive genius, should be able to dial up some plays to burn a Browns defense that is just 19th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play (0.090).
Considering all of the above, the best way to play this game might just be to lay the points. While I don’t usually suggest doing so with bigger spreads, Denver is 8-2 against the spread in its last 10 games. And each of the Broncos’ last five wins has come by double digits. Payton has not been shy about running up the score this season. You could also look to tease the Broncos with a Week 14 play that you like, which would essentially make Denver a moneyline play.
As far as the total goes, our DraftKings betting splits and Circa betting splits show that most bets are on the Over, which has gone up a little since this was posted. And the Over is probably the way I’d lean here. I wouldn’t want to be rooting against points if this ends up being a game in which the Broncos jump out to an early lead. Once Winston starts letting it rip, points will be scored.
Browns vs. Broncos Player Props
Bo Nix Over 219.5 Passing Yards (-110)I’m a little surprised that Nix’s passing yard total is so low again. The rookie has thrown for at least 220 yards in four of his last five starts. The one game in which he didn’t was a road game against the Chiefs in which he threw for 215 yards, so he really wasn’t that far off. Well, I’m not sure Nix is going to slow down soon. He’s getting more and more comfortable operating Payton’s offense, and he genuinely looks like a top-10 quarterback in the league right now.
Nix is also working against a Cleveland defense that is not very strong in the secondary. As long as Nix can avoid making mistakes throwing in Denzel Ward’s direction, there should be some big plays to be made. So, not only would I suggest playing Nix to reach 220 yards in this game, but I also think it’s worth laddering this thing up to 250 or so.
Browns vs. Broncos Pick
Sometimes Payton will zig when everybody expects a zag, so maybe we will see a heavy dose of the Denver running backs here. But that’d be a little surprising given how well Nix has been playing lately. And that’s especially true considering the lack of quality in the Cleveland secondary. That said, while I have leans on the Broncos and the Over in this game, my best bet for this one is the Over on Nix’s passing yard prop.Bet: Nix Over 219.5 Passing Yards (-110)
