One of the reasons I'm on this game is regression towards the mean in the turnover category. Are you familiar with that at all?
I clearly said it was about the turnovers in the very first post. I never mentioned anything regarding past history of these two teams facing each other, you did. If you can't interpret "Cleveland wins the turnover battle and covers" as they will win the turnover battle and cover then I don't know what else to say.
"No smart bettor who knows the starting QB was injured and didnt start in the prior game with no reports saying he will start next week is a fool."
I handicapped the game as if Watson wasn't going to start, which it looks like he isn't. I know exactly what I'm doing.
I handicapped the game as if Watson wasn't going to start, which it looks like he isn't. I know exactly what I'm doing.
Yes I asked because you said they would win the battle of turnoves, SF is doing very well at +7, Cleve is -7 and yes I know it could begin to even out but that is not a good reason to bet this game IMO.
And yes I know you probably handicapped it knowing Watson was probably out, but I wonder why you shot it out there on a Tuesday. The backup is NOT ready for prime time at all. Cleveland is banged up, QB, OLs, RBs, BUT you never know and Cleveland needs this game more than SF.
Let's look at your last writeup.
Green Bay @ Vegas.
Looks like two teams that need a win.
Problem is that the Raiders won one-time, because they played Denver. In that game, it was the only time they didnt have more than one turnover. In their 3 losses - they had 3 turnovers in each game.
The Raiders entered that game (9) in turnovers and you "thought" they would commit that many again and lose. Instead they finished +2 in turnovers including an interception right at the end of the game to seal the deal. It's called regression towards the mean.
Green Bay was a bit better but they did have 2 to's vs Detroit and lately no one beats Detroit, but they played a tough game.
They trailed 27-3 at halftime at home vs. the Lions and they played a tough game???
LV played 3 of its first 4 games away. But in the one home game they were beat by Pitt who was not playing well .
The other glaring issue with the Raiders is that they have NOT scored over 18 points in any game. The win was a 17-16 win over the broken Bears.
Wasn't that 17-16 win against the Broncos?
The Packers are at least averaging 25 pts per game - so if they hit that number tonight - then the Raiders need 28 to cover?
The Packers did average 19 pts per game against 3 winning record teams, who are ranked 9th, 9th and 12th on defense.. They put up 38 on a loser. They're playing another loser tionight...
They didn't put up 38 against the Raiders. They scored 13.
If I was going to critique that writeup I would give it an F.
Green Bay @ Vegas.
Looks like two teams that need a win.
Problem is that the Raiders won one-time, because they played Denver. In that game, it was the only time they didnt have more than one turnover. In their 3 losses - they had 3 turnovers in each game.
The Raiders entered that game (9) in turnovers and you "thought" they would commit that many again and lose. Instead they finished +2 in turnovers including an interception right at the end of the game to seal the deal. It's called regression towards the mean.
Green Bay was a bit better but they did have 2 to's vs Detroit and lately no one beats Detroit, but they played a tough game.
They trailed 27-3 at halftime at home vs. the Lions and they played a tough game???
LV played 3 of its first 4 games away. But in the one home game they were beat by Pitt who was not playing well .
The other glaring issue with the Raiders is that they have NOT scored over 18 points in any game. The win was a 17-16 win over the broken Bears.
Wasn't that 17-16 win against the Broncos?
The Packers are at least averaging 25 pts per game - so if they hit that number tonight - then the Raiders need 28 to cover?
The Packers did average 19 pts per game against 3 winning record teams, who are ranked 9th, 9th and 12th on defense.. They put up 38 on a loser. They're playing another loser tionight...
They didn't put up 38 against the Raiders. They scored 13.
If I was going to critique that writeup I would give it an F.
Smart thinking? LOL. Thats even worse.!!!
LOL. They had the Starting QB and RB in that game! LOL. They're both OUT now.
Easily win this? Then bet the ML!
Watson never played! LOL
LOL. I cant stop laughing...You just said dont pay attention to last week? LOL Which is it. Oh I see......But lets pay attention to a game weeks ago when Cle beat Cincy? LOL. With a different offense? LOL
You contradict everything you say over and over...LOL
Thanks for never doing writeups...Youre dangerous...
They're not playing in prime time. It's a 1pm kickoff in Cleveland. As far as PJ Walker goes, he faced Tom Brady and the Buccaneers last season in week seven as a 13 point home dog as a backup QB on the Panthers. They won SU 21-3. I remember that game because I bet on Walker and Panthers.
What do you mean Watson didn't play in that game. The first pass he threw was intercepted and returned for a TD.
1st & 10 at CLE 25
(14:51 - 1st) Alex Highsmith 30 Yd Interception Return C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-P.Harvin.| Deshaun Watson |
| TEAM |
| C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | SACKS | QBR | RTG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/40 | 235 | 5.9 | 1 | 1 | 6-25 | 16.7 | 70.3 |
| 22/40 | 210 | 5.9 | 1 | 1 | 6-25 | -- | 70.3 |
That's a little above your pay grade isn't G-man?
Only game 49ers for sure didn'tcover with Purdy in the regular season was last year vs an AFC team with a backup QB playing.
I was 100% taking this game if Watson was playing. I am still taking it just deciding on how much now Waiting to see how high the line goes. PJ Walker is a better option than DTR
I was 100% taking this game if Watson was playing. I am still taking it just deciding on how much now Waiting to see how high the line goes. PJ Walker is a better option than DTR
You mean this game?
| 13-3 | 6-10 | 10-7 | 3-0 | 0-2 | 11-4 HFW | Purdy | SF | @ | LV | Stidham | 6-9 RDL | 0-2 | 2-0 | 10-7 | 8-8 | 7-9 | +9.5 | 34-37L | 24-21 | 2-1 | -1.5 |
That 5.5 line is death for you Louie. Plain and Simple...Face it -You made a bad choice...
Shoulda done more research louie...
To admit you played this before Pitt was even more disastrous on judgment...It shows a serious flaw in capping ability in anyones book.
Please tell us WHY you only needed 3.5 points to make this play....against arguably the best team in the NFL right now.?
There cant be a logical answer...
OH How do you know they WILL win the Turnover battle? Is there a crystal ball in your possession?
Shoulda done more research louie...
To admit you played this before Pitt was even more disastrous on judgment...It shows a serious flaw in capping ability in anyones book.
Please tell us WHY you only needed 3.5 points to make this play....against arguably the best team in the NFL right now.?
There cant be a logical answer...
OH How do you know they WILL win the Turnover battle? Is there a crystal ball in your possession?
Man you crave attention. I PM'd you twice this past week saying you leave me alone and I'll leave you alone. You didn't answer either message. You also failed to accept or decline my challenge in the Westgate contest here at the Rx. Could it be because you're currently on a 5-13-2 ATS run? And the line was 10.5 last night, you bought the 1/2 point so you pushed but once again you we're on the wrong side.
Regarding the turnovers, it's known as regression towards the mean.
That 5.5 line is death for you Louie. Plain and Simple...Face it -You made a bad choice...
Shoulda done more research louie...
To admit you played this before Pitt was even more disastrous on judgment...It shows a serious flaw in capping ability in anyones book.
Please tell us WHY you only needed 3.5 points to make this play....against arguably the best team in the NFL right now.?
There cant be a logical answer...
OH How do you know they WILL win the Turnover battle? Is there a crystal ball in your possession?
Nostradamus Lou! What else is in the future?
Shoulda done more research louie...
To admit you played this before Pitt was even more disastrous on judgment...It shows a serious flaw in capping ability in anyones book.
Please tell us WHY you only needed 3.5 points to make this play....against arguably the best team in the NFL right now.?
There cant be a logical answer...
OH How do you know they WILL win the Turnover battle? Is there a crystal ball in your possession?
Nostradamus Lou! What else is in the future?
Niners shut down Clev running game, force them to pass, force ill advise passing, and sack QB. Niner off establishes running game, neutralizing Clev pass rush, forcing safeties to come up to help defend run, only to have Purdy throw dink passes into unprotective zone. Niner has been playing to form in all 5 games, look for more of the same. Blow out conditions brewing wih Clev 5'9' back up qb and his 5 TD 11 INT record.
