WITH DEEP, talented fields and favorites with notable obstacles, the 20th Breeders' Cup on Saturday will offer a heck of a challenge to any handicapper.
About the only thing that intrigues a handicapper more than a good challenge is good value, and this card promises plenty of it.
The basic game plan we're taking is to let the European shippers beat us. Besides the travel, they've got a surface they're unaccustomed to and hot weather.
We also will try to beat the two outside drawn juvenile favorites and play against classy favorites not running at their preferred distance.
Distaff: On paper, it looks like the most predictable race on the card. The only logical betting strategy is to try to hit small exactas and trifectas several times with Sightseek to Got Koko and Elloluv.
Juvenile Fillies: If Halfbridled is the monster everyone thinks she is, she'll be able to overcome the No. 14 post and make a lot of even money tickets winners.
The outside post, the weak competition she's defeated and the infrequency of 2-year-olds stringing together four big efforts in a row are reasons to try to beat the chalk.
The bet is Society Selection, who has won both her races and showed heart rallying past Victory U.S.A. in the Frizette. In this group, we think the value makes her a very reasonable play.
Mile: Top European contenders Oasis Dream and Six Perfections have to contend with a new surface, hot weather and awful outside posts. We'll make a pitch for Special Ring and Peace Rules.
The thinking here is Special Ring's last race is a toss-out. Trainer Julio Canani wanted to try him farther off the pace, and he didn't get the best of trips. If that fourth-place finish wasn't on his form, he would be 2-1, not 4-1.
Peace Rules got noticed on the dirt this spring but began his career as a very nice turfer. He'll be gunning from the very cozy rail post and may dictate the pace.
Sprint: Aldebaran looks like a favorite you must try to beat. He's got a ton of class and has Bobby Frankel and Jerry Bailey in his corner, but he prefers 7 or 8 furlongs.
Shake You Down is a 6-furlong monster who has cracked off three 118 or higher Beyer figures this year. The play is a single on him and exactas with speedster Valid Video and up-and-coming longshot Private Horde, ridden by Jason Lumpkins.
Filly & Mare Turf: Frankel has had a tough time winning Breeders' Cup races but starts three in this. We like his chances with Tates Creek.
He looked good winning the Yellow Ribbon on the Santa Anita oval, and Pat Valenzuela should have him placed nicely near the pacesetters. Also saddled by Frankel, Megahertz loves Santa Anita and should have an honest pace to run down.
Juvenile: Cuvee is the 8-5 morning-line favorite. With questions about getting two turns and the outside No. 12 post, taking a 2-year-old at 8-5 seems foolish.
We wouldn't be surprised to see the biggest price of the day come out of this race. Richard Mandella starts three, and 20-1 Action This Day deserves serious consideration.
He rallied from 12 lengths back to win at Santa Anita in his last start, proving 11/16 miles is not a problem. Also, his sharp works indicate he may show more speed.
Turf: Sulamani has won all over the world, so Santa Anita shouldn't be a problem. He loves the distance and looks to be poised for a big effort.
Gary Stevens says Storming Home is the best turf horse he's ever ridden. That statement and his current form make him a no-brainer in an exacta with the top choice.
Falbrav may not be at his preferred distance, and High Chaparral doesn't look quite as sharp as he was last year when he won this race.
Classic: Medaglia d'Oro, Congaree, Ten Most Wanted and Funny Cide are championship horses who all deserve a long look. Then, punch No. 7 for Perfect Drift on your win ticket.
He's 7-2 on the morning line, and that seems like solid value for a horse who has beaten top older horse Mineshaft, Congaree and Ten Most Wanted and owns spectacular dirt form this year.
Of the top choices, Funny Cide and Ten Most Wanted picked tough spots to try to beat elders. Congaree (a hoof injury) and Medaglia d'Oro (a long layoff) have questions about their current form and should prevent each other from setting a soft pace.
www.timesstar.com
About the only thing that intrigues a handicapper more than a good challenge is good value, and this card promises plenty of it.
The basic game plan we're taking is to let the European shippers beat us. Besides the travel, they've got a surface they're unaccustomed to and hot weather.
We also will try to beat the two outside drawn juvenile favorites and play against classy favorites not running at their preferred distance.
Distaff: On paper, it looks like the most predictable race on the card. The only logical betting strategy is to try to hit small exactas and trifectas several times with Sightseek to Got Koko and Elloluv.
Juvenile Fillies: If Halfbridled is the monster everyone thinks she is, she'll be able to overcome the No. 14 post and make a lot of even money tickets winners.
The outside post, the weak competition she's defeated and the infrequency of 2-year-olds stringing together four big efforts in a row are reasons to try to beat the chalk.
The bet is Society Selection, who has won both her races and showed heart rallying past Victory U.S.A. in the Frizette. In this group, we think the value makes her a very reasonable play.
Mile: Top European contenders Oasis Dream and Six Perfections have to contend with a new surface, hot weather and awful outside posts. We'll make a pitch for Special Ring and Peace Rules.
The thinking here is Special Ring's last race is a toss-out. Trainer Julio Canani wanted to try him farther off the pace, and he didn't get the best of trips. If that fourth-place finish wasn't on his form, he would be 2-1, not 4-1.
Peace Rules got noticed on the dirt this spring but began his career as a very nice turfer. He'll be gunning from the very cozy rail post and may dictate the pace.
Sprint: Aldebaran looks like a favorite you must try to beat. He's got a ton of class and has Bobby Frankel and Jerry Bailey in his corner, but he prefers 7 or 8 furlongs.
Shake You Down is a 6-furlong monster who has cracked off three 118 or higher Beyer figures this year. The play is a single on him and exactas with speedster Valid Video and up-and-coming longshot Private Horde, ridden by Jason Lumpkins.
Filly & Mare Turf: Frankel has had a tough time winning Breeders' Cup races but starts three in this. We like his chances with Tates Creek.
He looked good winning the Yellow Ribbon on the Santa Anita oval, and Pat Valenzuela should have him placed nicely near the pacesetters. Also saddled by Frankel, Megahertz loves Santa Anita and should have an honest pace to run down.
Juvenile: Cuvee is the 8-5 morning-line favorite. With questions about getting two turns and the outside No. 12 post, taking a 2-year-old at 8-5 seems foolish.
We wouldn't be surprised to see the biggest price of the day come out of this race. Richard Mandella starts three, and 20-1 Action This Day deserves serious consideration.
He rallied from 12 lengths back to win at Santa Anita in his last start, proving 11/16 miles is not a problem. Also, his sharp works indicate he may show more speed.
Turf: Sulamani has won all over the world, so Santa Anita shouldn't be a problem. He loves the distance and looks to be poised for a big effort.
Gary Stevens says Storming Home is the best turf horse he's ever ridden. That statement and his current form make him a no-brainer in an exacta with the top choice.
Falbrav may not be at his preferred distance, and High Chaparral doesn't look quite as sharp as he was last year when he won this race.
Classic: Medaglia d'Oro, Congaree, Ten Most Wanted and Funny Cide are championship horses who all deserve a long look. Then, punch No. 7 for Perfect Drift on your win ticket.
He's 7-2 on the morning line, and that seems like solid value for a horse who has beaten top older horse Mineshaft, Congaree and Ten Most Wanted and owns spectacular dirt form this year.
Of the top choices, Funny Cide and Ten Most Wanted picked tough spots to try to beat elders. Congaree (a hoof injury) and Medaglia d'Oro (a long layoff) have questions about their current form and should prevent each other from setting a soft pace.
www.timesstar.com
