SECOND BEST SPORTS DAY OF THE YEAR !!!! Good horses at honest prices.........Can be a crapshoot for sure, but ya don't have to hit many to make some decent money ............Gonna try a diff. approach this year , and bet mainly into the HUGE exotic pools hoping to catch a monster !!!! Two pick 4's and some pick 3's and one or two win bets ................Will post my picks and hopefor some feedback from some playas here, maybe avoid disaster and find something I may have overlooked .................Hope y'all have a profitable day today , there will be some big payoffs out there , so let's snag a couple !!!!!!
Summary: In the absence of Azeri, Sightseek and others, it may be unrealistic to expect this race to be run at its usual level of an average 108 winning Beyer. In fact , Island Fashion is the only entrant to have ever exceeeded that figure . Storm Flag Flying is sentimentally appealing, does her best running around two turns and appears set for a strong effort. Ashado is a less than compelling favorite in this spot but is a filly of high quality and figures to turn in a sold effort. Society Selection is a wild card but unappetizing at under 8-1 until she delivers a fast race outside of New York or on a fast track. Stellar Jayne may get lost in the betting shuffle and be a tempting price but will have to work out a trip from the outside post. Tamweel is a quickly improving outsider with a small chance to stick around for a long time at a healthy price. Selections: Island Fashion, Storm Flag Flying, Ashado
Other legit contenders: Society Selection, Stellar Jayne
4. Society Selection
Morning Line: 4-1
Fair value odds: 6-1
Positives: A three-time Grade 1 winner - Frizette, Test and Alabama - Society Selection stormed past Stellar Jayne and Ashado winning the Alabama. She earned a Beyer 107 that day, second only to Island Fashion's top efforts in the field. She had a tough task trying to run down a loose Sightseek in a paceless Beldame last time out and may do better here around two turns and behind contested fractions. Negatives: The Alabama, her only triple-digit Beyer, was run in sloppy footing and Society Selection handles wet tracks exceptionally well. It is unclear whether she can transfer her best New York form to other tracks as she is winless in all three starts outside the NYRA circuit.
10. Island Fashion
Morning Line: 5-1
Fair value odds: 7-2
Positives: Her very best races - her La Brea blowout last December and her second to Southern Image in the Santa Anita Handicap, both of which earned Beyers of 111 - tower over this field. After an unsuccessful trip to Japan this summer, she returned from a four-month layoff to grind past Elloluv and hold off Miss Loren in a slow but slow-paced Lady's Secret, a useful prep off which she should improve. Negatives: With just one start since June, she could still be a race short of her best.
7. Storm Flag Flying
Morning Line: 9-2
Fair value odds: 6-1
Positives: Brilliant as a 2-year-old, when she won the Juvenile Fillies in a stirring performance, Storm Flag Flying had two dismal starts as a 3-year-old but returned to prominence this year with victories in the G2 Shuvee and G1 Personal Ensign. Raced mainly at Belmont, she has been around two turns only four times but has won three of those races in her best route efforts and gets that preferred configuration today. Negatives: Admirable as her return to the races has been, the feeling lingers that she never came back 100 percent or as good as she was at 2.
5. Nebraska Tornado
Morning Line: 15-1
Fair value odds: 25-1
Positives: By Storm Cat, whose Giants Causeway and Hold That Tiger ran well first-time dirt in the Breeders' Cup. Won the G1 French Oaks and G1 Prix du Moulin while going 4 for 5 last year, when she looked like a worldbeater at a mile on turf. Negatives: No dirt success from the female side of her pedigree. Moreover ,she is winless in four starts this season and has not improved on her 3-year-old Timeform Ratings. If her connections had confidence in her current form, wouldn't she be running in the Mile instead of taking a "Why not?" freeroll here en route to the breeding shed?
1. Ashado
Morning Line: 7-2
Fair value odds: 6-1
Positives: The Kentucky Oaks and CCA Oaks winner is the nominal leader of the 3-year-old fillies despite having finished third to Society Selection and Stellar Jayne in the Alabama Aug. 21. She was closest of the three to the early pace, fought back when challenged and did not weaken until the final sixteenth. A mile and an eighth should suit her better. She is 8 for 13 and has never been worse than third. She ships well, having won at six different tracks. She comes into this off a very easy victory at 1-5 in the Cotillion, which should have her fresh for a top effort. Negatives: She has never faced older fillies, and her fastest Beyer outside the wet-track Alabama is a moderate 103
Feel pretty confident here that ISLAND FASHION is ready for this and if she runs her race should be right there ...............sooooo, gonna key the 10 in all three spots w/ the 1457 in the trifecta and up and down in the exacta , also WP on ISLAND FASHION .....................PICK 4 4,10/ 7,10/1,2,3,6,11,12/2,3,5,7,13.......$240.00
Other legit contenders: Society Selection, Stellar Jayne
4. Society Selection
Morning Line: 4-1
Fair value odds: 6-1
Positives: A three-time Grade 1 winner - Frizette, Test and Alabama - Society Selection stormed past Stellar Jayne and Ashado winning the Alabama. She earned a Beyer 107 that day, second only to Island Fashion's top efforts in the field. She had a tough task trying to run down a loose Sightseek in a paceless Beldame last time out and may do better here around two turns and behind contested fractions. Negatives: The Alabama, her only triple-digit Beyer, was run in sloppy footing and Society Selection handles wet tracks exceptionally well. It is unclear whether she can transfer her best New York form to other tracks as she is winless in all three starts outside the NYRA circuit.
10. Island Fashion
Morning Line: 5-1
Fair value odds: 7-2
Positives: Her very best races - her La Brea blowout last December and her second to Southern Image in the Santa Anita Handicap, both of which earned Beyers of 111 - tower over this field. After an unsuccessful trip to Japan this summer, she returned from a four-month layoff to grind past Elloluv and hold off Miss Loren in a slow but slow-paced Lady's Secret, a useful prep off which she should improve. Negatives: With just one start since June, she could still be a race short of her best.
7. Storm Flag Flying
Morning Line: 9-2
Fair value odds: 6-1
Positives: Brilliant as a 2-year-old, when she won the Juvenile Fillies in a stirring performance, Storm Flag Flying had two dismal starts as a 3-year-old but returned to prominence this year with victories in the G2 Shuvee and G1 Personal Ensign. Raced mainly at Belmont, she has been around two turns only four times but has won three of those races in her best route efforts and gets that preferred configuration today. Negatives: Admirable as her return to the races has been, the feeling lingers that she never came back 100 percent or as good as she was at 2.
5. Nebraska Tornado
Morning Line: 15-1
Fair value odds: 25-1
Positives: By Storm Cat, whose Giants Causeway and Hold That Tiger ran well first-time dirt in the Breeders' Cup. Won the G1 French Oaks and G1 Prix du Moulin while going 4 for 5 last year, when she looked like a worldbeater at a mile on turf. Negatives: No dirt success from the female side of her pedigree. Moreover ,she is winless in four starts this season and has not improved on her 3-year-old Timeform Ratings. If her connections had confidence in her current form, wouldn't she be running in the Mile instead of taking a "Why not?" freeroll here en route to the breeding shed?
1. Ashado
Morning Line: 7-2
Fair value odds: 6-1
Positives: The Kentucky Oaks and CCA Oaks winner is the nominal leader of the 3-year-old fillies despite having finished third to Society Selection and Stellar Jayne in the Alabama Aug. 21. She was closest of the three to the early pace, fought back when challenged and did not weaken until the final sixteenth. A mile and an eighth should suit her better. She is 8 for 13 and has never been worse than third. She ships well, having won at six different tracks. She comes into this off a very easy victory at 1-5 in the Cotillion, which should have her fresh for a top effort. Negatives: She has never faced older fillies, and her fastest Beyer outside the wet-track Alabama is a moderate 103
Feel pretty confident here that ISLAND FASHION is ready for this and if she runs her race should be right there ...............sooooo, gonna key the 10 in all three spots w/ the 1457 in the trifecta and up and down in the exacta , also WP on ISLAND FASHION .....................PICK 4 4,10/ 7,10/1,2,3,6,11,12/2,3,5,7,13.......$240.00
