Atletico Paranaense - Santos
This is one of the few matches with little to play for , both team are secure in mid table and will be looking forward to the end of the campaign and a break over the holiday season. We have lost 10% of goals in Serie A this year over each of the last two seasons, which were in turn , 10% down on 2011. However, it is the nature of all football games at this time of the year to be more open and usually to have more of a home bias, when there is little at stake.
Atletico have won the last three h2h meetings and the last two have gone "over" and I feel there is every chance that this will follow suit.
Santos have had a very tough month, this will be their tenth start inside 33 days, their fifth on the road and their last five games have come against top 5 teams and that is a very tough schedule against quality opposition. Atletico have played three games less over the same sequence and with an easier schedule, this will be their penultimate home game and they will want a performance after losing in front of their own supporters at the weekend. In general they are strong at home, with nine wins already and both these teams tend to struggle on the road. I think we can excuse AP that loss to Sport Recife, they had just all but secured their top flight safety and they were not as focused as they will surely be this evening. Home coach Claudinei Oliveira has a virtually full squad to pick from, which is almost unheard of in Brazil and has spoken of not allowing his players to mentally go on early holiday this week, he was awarded a contract extension yesterday to keep him at the club for next season and wants to celebrate with a win.
Santos have two home games up next and I feel it is those which will get their full attention, looking at their website you would not know they had a match today and given their busy month, the tank must be a little empty. Both to score and Atletico to win feels about right and is how the last two meetings here in Curitiba have played out ( 2-1/3-2), something similar today. I will suggest 1.5 units Atletico Paranaense -0.5 ball 2.20 asian line/Sportmarket.
This is one of the few matches with little to play for , both team are secure in mid table and will be looking forward to the end of the campaign and a break over the holiday season. We have lost 10% of goals in Serie A this year over each of the last two seasons, which were in turn , 10% down on 2011. However, it is the nature of all football games at this time of the year to be more open and usually to have more of a home bias, when there is little at stake.
Atletico have won the last three h2h meetings and the last two have gone "over" and I feel there is every chance that this will follow suit.
Santos have had a very tough month, this will be their tenth start inside 33 days, their fifth on the road and their last five games have come against top 5 teams and that is a very tough schedule against quality opposition. Atletico have played three games less over the same sequence and with an easier schedule, this will be their penultimate home game and they will want a performance after losing in front of their own supporters at the weekend. In general they are strong at home, with nine wins already and both these teams tend to struggle on the road. I think we can excuse AP that loss to Sport Recife, they had just all but secured their top flight safety and they were not as focused as they will surely be this evening. Home coach Claudinei Oliveira has a virtually full squad to pick from, which is almost unheard of in Brazil and has spoken of not allowing his players to mentally go on early holiday this week, he was awarded a contract extension yesterday to keep him at the club for next season and wants to celebrate with a win.
Santos have two home games up next and I feel it is those which will get their full attention, looking at their website you would not know they had a match today and given their busy month, the tank must be a little empty. Both to score and Atletico to win feels about right and is how the last two meetings here in Curitiba have played out ( 2-1/3-2), something similar today. I will suggest 1.5 units Atletico Paranaense -0.5 ball 2.20 asian line/Sportmarket.
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