1st up ... Brazil
Fluminense vs Corinthians - this is the standout bet of the round. Both teams with horrible defenses and strong attacks though 7 straight meetings have ended under. Emerson Leao takes over as Timao coach missing two fullbacks and his keeper which will not help the 3rd worst defense in Brazil. Timao's goal scoring problems have taken a backseat with the return of their WC players but their defense remains a huge problem and against a great Flu attack they will allow some goals. Flu have scored in all but one of their last 7 games and in 8/8 home games and have allowed goals in 8 straight games (17 in their last 7 games!). Flu missing two starting defenders, Thiago Silva and Marcelo, but will have Lenny back up front with Tuta. Certainly a game where goals are expected and I will take a decent stake for the over. Flu/Timao over 2.5 goals 6/10 @1.826 (pinn, 1.80 pointbet, 1.75 ibc/10bet)
Palmeiras vs Juventude - Verdao trashing everyone since the WC break, 5-1-0 15/5, with 4 wins by 2+ goals and 3-0-0 9/4 at home. Juventude night and day home vs away, and have lost 4 straight on the road and 1-0-6 overall. Palmeiras have won all 4 meetings since returning to Serie A, 4-0-0 11/4, and look almost unstoppable right now. Verdao without two players for the match, Wendel and Daniel, while Juventude will Fabio, Ederson, Marcio Rozario, Ze Rodolpho, and Marcel (all but Marcel list last match too). Tite has Palmeiras playing the best football in Brazil and Juventude are a midtable team, at best. This line should be a full goal. Palmeiras -3/4 5/10 @1.905 (ibc / pointbet)
Santos vs Cruzeiro - unders have not been going so well for me lately but gotta give this one a shot. We have the two best defensive teams in the league in this one and even more defensive in the home/away situation we have here. Santos just 4 home goals allowed and 3-4 o/u on the year at home. Cruzeiro huge goals stats at home but a world of difference away. Home matches avg 3.33 gpg but away just 1.85 gpg including 6 straight unders. H2H's are all overs so, again, a bet against history. More limited stake than stats suggest because new Cruzeiro coach Oswaldo de Oliveira will form a 3-attacker lineup though he'll be without strong midfielders Jonilson and Wagner. Santos/Cruzeiro under 2.5 goals 3.5/10 @2.15 (pointbet, 2.13 pinn, 2.09 ibc)
Fluminense vs Corinthians - this is the standout bet of the round. Both teams with horrible defenses and strong attacks though 7 straight meetings have ended under. Emerson Leao takes over as Timao coach missing two fullbacks and his keeper which will not help the 3rd worst defense in Brazil. Timao's goal scoring problems have taken a backseat with the return of their WC players but their defense remains a huge problem and against a great Flu attack they will allow some goals. Flu have scored in all but one of their last 7 games and in 8/8 home games and have allowed goals in 8 straight games (17 in their last 7 games!). Flu missing two starting defenders, Thiago Silva and Marcelo, but will have Lenny back up front with Tuta. Certainly a game where goals are expected and I will take a decent stake for the over. Flu/Timao over 2.5 goals 6/10 @1.826 (pinn, 1.80 pointbet, 1.75 ibc/10bet)
Palmeiras vs Juventude - Verdao trashing everyone since the WC break, 5-1-0 15/5, with 4 wins by 2+ goals and 3-0-0 9/4 at home. Juventude night and day home vs away, and have lost 4 straight on the road and 1-0-6 overall. Palmeiras have won all 4 meetings since returning to Serie A, 4-0-0 11/4, and look almost unstoppable right now. Verdao without two players for the match, Wendel and Daniel, while Juventude will Fabio, Ederson, Marcio Rozario, Ze Rodolpho, and Marcel (all but Marcel list last match too). Tite has Palmeiras playing the best football in Brazil and Juventude are a midtable team, at best. This line should be a full goal. Palmeiras -3/4 5/10 @1.905 (ibc / pointbet)
Santos vs Cruzeiro - unders have not been going so well for me lately but gotta give this one a shot. We have the two best defensive teams in the league in this one and even more defensive in the home/away situation we have here. Santos just 4 home goals allowed and 3-4 o/u on the year at home. Cruzeiro huge goals stats at home but a world of difference away. Home matches avg 3.33 gpg but away just 1.85 gpg including 6 straight unders. H2H's are all overs so, again, a bet against history. More limited stake than stats suggest because new Cruzeiro coach Oswaldo de Oliveira will form a 3-attacker lineup though he'll be without strong midfielders Jonilson and Wagner. Santos/Cruzeiro under 2.5 goals 3.5/10 @2.15 (pointbet, 2.13 pinn, 2.09 ibc)
