Brazil - Campeonato for 10/4/06

[quantumleap]

Also known as Serie A League.

Gremio -0.5 over Palmeiras Pinnacle 3 units
Just a small bet here. Gremio is the best home team in the league having outscored opponents 30:10 while Palmeiras has lost their last 3 road matches. The thing that makes this most interesting is that Gremio lost their last match 0-4. They will have the motivation (and talent) to do well because of their humiliating loss and because they are chasing league-leaders Sao Paulo.

On the injury front, Gremio is without 3 players for this match. This may have lead to their poor showing in their last match along with the absence of midfielder Hugo. However, Hugo will be back for today's match. Palmeiras will be missing 6 of their players today.

Match goes off at 6pm PDT.

 

[AndySpainpick's]

what linedid u get ?? just wondering because its at -145 now, and maybe u think there is no value any longer.

:toast:

 

[fhmesq44]

I got 142 but still played it. Value is in the win, not the line IMO.

 

[quantumleap]

what linedid u get ?? just wondering because its at -145 now, and maybe u think there is no value any longer.

:toast:

Sorry, I got it at -139. 5dimes had Gremio at -143 when I looked.

I believe there is still value on this bet. Risking $300 will get you $210 at -143.

 

[AndySpainpick's]

I got 142 but still played it. Value is in the win, not the line IMO.

So you would bet this at -500 anyway ?

 

[fhmesq44]

So you would bet this at -500 anyway ?

Not necessarily this game, but I wouldn't have a problem betting Chelsea home v. Sheff United, or something akin to that. I guess my point is, there is a reason they are -500, they are virtual locks. I know a lot of people don't like big favorites b/c of the cost involved.

 

[AndySpainpick's]

me too man, the point i try to make is, if the opening number was -110, then -140 must have taken all of the value there was in the play.

 

[quantumleap]

Ramon scores for Gremio at the 32' mark!!

 

[quantumleap]

me too man, the point i try to make is, if the opening number was -110, then -140 must have taken all of the value there was in the play.

If Gremio wins this match 3 out of 4 times then there is value in -140.

 

[quantumleap]

Gremio 2, Palmeiras 1! WINNER!!! +2.16

arty: arty:

 

[Soprano]

Nice Call Quantum!!!!

 

[fhmesq44]

Nice call once again.

 

[quantumleap]

Thanks guys. Let's make some more money on Friday. Nothing much for Thursday.

 

[Hooligans]

What do you have in store for Friday? I will look and post later on ! :toast:

Thanks guys. Let's make some more money on Friday. Nothing much for Thursday.

 

[RingoStar]

Gremio 2, Palmeiras 1! WINNER!!! +2.16

arty: arty:

Thanx for the winner Quantum. EZ $$.:Guitarman

Do you like Botafogo home against Santa Cruz?

 

[quantumleap]

Thanx for the winner Quantum. EZ $$.:Guitarman

Do you like Botafogo home against Santa Cruz?

I've been leaning that way since Santa Cruz does so poorly on the road but Botafogo has been so inconsistent for me this year that I've decided not to take that bet.

 

[quantumleap]

What do you have in store for Friday? I will look and post later on ! :toast:

Usually the French 3rd Division and the Dutch 2nd Division leagues have a couple matches worth betting on. I don't see any line movements in those leagues so far so I will take a look later Thursday night. I'll post then if I see anything I like. Don't rule out any early Friday morning picks for those leagues as well.

There's a lot of line movement on the Euro 2008 Qualifiers for Saturday so I hope to have a few picks for them on Friday.