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ok season in Brazil winding down with only 3-4 matches left. Couple games I like today.

2:00 est

Flamengo +120ish over Palmeiras

Palmeiras lost 1-0 at home to Gremio last weekend which virtually eliminated their chances of claiming the title. It was a dire game to watch and Palmeiras created little. I found their overall performance disappointing in such a huge match. They missed their regular striker Kleber but one player (who isn't a superstar anyways) should not have an effect like that. Not just this game but recently Palmeiras has struggled. Mediocre results matched with mediocre performances.

Flamengo are coming into this match after a 1-0 win in a Rio derby against Botafogo. Game was just edged imo by Flamengo and they were able to scrape a goal in the latter stages after they won a penalty. Flamengo has been up and down this season but I believe the team is in good spirit and can grab one of the top 4 spots (top 4 teams qualify for the Copa Libertadores, the Champions League for South America). They currently sit 5th just 1 point back of Cruzeiro (who lost yesterday) and Palmeiras. A victory today will leapfrog them over both those teams and put them in a good position.

Technically both teams are still in reach of the title themselves so I suspect if the game is level late both teams will attempt to win it.


Other game I like is Santos -160ish over Internacional > ko 4:10 est

Santos has slipped a little lately and find themselves edging towards the relegation zone. The team has had little to play for the past month so I'll blame some of their recent results on lack of motivation. Now that there is something to play for I expect them to react as they are not a relegation calibre team imo. Aiding them nicely is the fact Internacional will send a B side of sorts to Sao Paulo. This is due to their involvement in the Copa Sudamericana competition. Midweek they visited Mexico and beat Chivas 2-0. This week the return leg is scheduled and the coach will rest basically all of those players. Internacional have little to play for in the league so the decision makes sense.

If you can lay 3/4 ball or even -1 at the appropriate price I'd go that route.



gl
 

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