Postseason contenders and pretenders
Cold, Hard Football Facts for the week of Dec. 30-Jan. 5, 2005
Want a precise gauge of how teams will perform in the playoffs? Want to know who’s likely to lift the Lombardi Trophy?
Here’s how you do it.
Strip away the dead-weight detritus of regular-season games against the likes of Chicago, Detroit and Cleveland. These games mean nothing come playoff time. Then look at how playoff teams performed against quality opponents – that is, against teams like those they’ll face in the postseason.
You’re left with a stark, naked look at the essence of a team – minus the mid-season stat-padders against NFL also-rans. Who fixes bayonets when their ammo runs low? Who cowers in their foxhole and lifts the white flag? The quality wins quotient will tell you.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts define “quality wins” as any victory against a team with a winning record; a “quality team” or “quality opponent” simply refers to any team with a winning record.
You can marvel at a team’s red zone performance or proficiency against the run. You can calculate passing stats until your abacus ignites from the friction. But, simply put, those stats mean absolutely nothing in the postseason if a team can’t consistently beat quality opponents. After all, you must beat three to four quality opponents in the postseason to win the Super Bowl. If a team has trouble doing it in the regular season, they’ll have trouble doing it in the postseason. Playoff equations don’t get any easier than that.
Exposed under the harsh light of the Cold, Hard Football Facts quality wins quotient, for example, Peyton Manning and the juggernaut Indy offense look merely mortal. Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers look hopeless.
We examined the schedule of every playoff team to see how they performed against quality opponents. Armed with nothing more than a team’s record against quality opponents, and their average performance against those teams, we determined with a high degree of certainty the top Super Bowl contenders. Here they are, ranked in order from the most likely Super Bowl champion to the most clearly outclassed playoff pretender. It may come as no surprise that only two teams enter the postseason with a legitimate shot at a Super Bowl title.
THE CONTENDERS
New England – 7-1 against quality opponents; avg. score, 24.6-14.7 (+9.9)
Fret all you want about New England's secondary, but no team enters the playoffs with more games and more wins against quality opponents under its belt. In other words, the Patriots are the most battle-tested team in the postseason. New England also boasts the most impressive average scoring margin against quality opponents. Hanging over New England’s head, of course, is the memory a 34-20 regular-season loss at Pittsburgh. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: The Patriots won the Super Bowl last year with a leading rusher, Antowain Smith, who averaged 3.5 yards per carry. Corey Dillon averages 4.7 yards per carry.
Pittsburgh – 6-1; 22.4-15.1 (+7.3)
The Steelers looked strong against quality opponents, trailing only New England with six quality wins, but they faced just three teams all season that made the playoffs. Of course, Pittsburgh passed those tests with flying colors, posting a 3-0 record and outscoring New England, Philadelphia and the N.Y. Jets by an average score of 26.0-9.7, by the far the best performance in the league against playoff-bound teams. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: The Steelers average just 4.0 yards per rushing attempt, 18th best in the NFL regular season, but lead the league in attempts per game.
THE PRETENDERS
Atlanta – 2-1; 29.3-25.3 (+4.0)
The Falcons faced the easiest schedule of any playoff team (opponents were 111-145). But Atlanta boasts the NFC’s most impressive record against top competition. In fact, Atlanta’s point differential against quality opponents is better than its point differential against all opponents (21.2-21.1). With Philly’s Terrell Owens hobbled and the Eagles limping to the finish line, the Falcons are the team to beat in the NFC. Yes, it’s a sad commentary on the state of the conference. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: The Falcons are just +3 in scoring differential (340-337). The narrowest scoring margin by any Super Bowl participant was +14 (1979 Rams, 323-309).
Philadelphia – 2-1; 21.7-18.0 (+3.7)
The Eagles inflated their regular-season record (13-3) facing a substandard schedule this season. Opponents were a combined 116-140 and the Eagles faced just three quality opponents all season. They were hammered by Pittsburgh, squeaked by 9-7 Baltimore and crushed Green Bay which, you will soon see, is no great accomplishment. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: The Eagles faced four teams that made the postseason (Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Green Bay and St. Louis and outscored those opponents by a mere 1 point per game (21.0-20.0).
Indianapolis – 4-3; 26.4-25.1 (+1.3)
The hand-wringing in New England has already begun. “How do you stop the mighty Colts offense?” Well, the Colts don’t look so mighty when stripped of their stat-padding performances against Detroit, Chicago and Houston. In fact, five playoff teams posted a better scoring differential against quality opponents. Another thing to keep in mind when you marvel at the Indy offense: New England boasts a coach who has engineered the greatest defensive performances in modern NFL history. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: The worst defense ever to win a Super Bowl (1983 Raiders) surrendered 21.1 PPG. The Colts surrender 21.9 PPG.
Denver – 2-3; 21.4-19.0 (+2.4)
Denver did not beat a single quality opponent on the road all season. To make the Super Bowl, they’ll have to beat three quality opponents on the road. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: Only one NFC team, Philadelphia, posted a better scoring differential than Denver’s +77 (381 PF, 304 PA).
St. Louis – 4-4; 22.6-28.9 (-6.3)
We were surprised to find that the gutless Rams posted the most quality wins and faced the toughest schedule of any NFC playoff team this season (opponents were a combined 125-131). However, when St. Louis lost to quality opponents it was by an average of more than 21 points per game. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: St. Louis’ lone quality win on the road came at Seattle in Week Five.
New York Jets – 3-5; 17.6-18.9 (-1.3)
The Jets were haunted all season by the notion that they can’t win the big game. In the wildcard round they go to the site of their lone quality road win of the season: San Diego. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: Curtis Martin led the league in rushing this year but only two players, Emmitt Smith and Terrell Davis, won a rushing championship and a Super Bowl in the same season.
San Diego – 2-4; 24.3-25.0 (-0.7)
The Chargers had a nice regular-season run, but the postseason will include no more than one victory. San Diego faced three of the AFC’s other five playoff teams in the regular season and lost to all three (though split with Denver). Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: The Chargers did not record a single quality road win this season.
THE HOPELESS
Seattle – 1-3; 17.7-32.7 (-15.0)
You simply can’t cut it in the postseason when you’re outscored by a 2-1 margin against quality opponents. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: The Seahawks saved their best for last, recording their lone quality win of the season against Atlanta in Week 17.
Minnesota – 1-5; 26.0-28.2 (-2.2)
The Vikings’ lone quality win came against 9-7 Jacksonville, a team which failed to make the playoffs.
Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: The Vikings and the Falcons are the only NFC teams to post a winning record against the AFC (3-1).
Green Bay – 0-3; 24.3-40.0 (-15.7)
It pretty much says it all about the NFC when the 10-6 Packers faced just three teams all season with winning records, lost all three, surrendered 40 points per game in those contests, and still won their division. The Packers simply have no hope of winning more than one playoff game. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: Favre and the Packers have won just two postseason games since beating San Francisco in the 1997 NFC title game.
Cold, Hard Football Facts for the week of Dec. 30-Jan. 5, 2005
Want a precise gauge of how teams will perform in the playoffs? Want to know who’s likely to lift the Lombardi Trophy?
Here’s how you do it.
Strip away the dead-weight detritus of regular-season games against the likes of Chicago, Detroit and Cleveland. These games mean nothing come playoff time. Then look at how playoff teams performed against quality opponents – that is, against teams like those they’ll face in the postseason.
You’re left with a stark, naked look at the essence of a team – minus the mid-season stat-padders against NFL also-rans. Who fixes bayonets when their ammo runs low? Who cowers in their foxhole and lifts the white flag? The quality wins quotient will tell you.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts define “quality wins” as any victory against a team with a winning record; a “quality team” or “quality opponent” simply refers to any team with a winning record.
You can marvel at a team’s red zone performance or proficiency against the run. You can calculate passing stats until your abacus ignites from the friction. But, simply put, those stats mean absolutely nothing in the postseason if a team can’t consistently beat quality opponents. After all, you must beat three to four quality opponents in the postseason to win the Super Bowl. If a team has trouble doing it in the regular season, they’ll have trouble doing it in the postseason. Playoff equations don’t get any easier than that.
Exposed under the harsh light of the Cold, Hard Football Facts quality wins quotient, for example, Peyton Manning and the juggernaut Indy offense look merely mortal. Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers look hopeless.
We examined the schedule of every playoff team to see how they performed against quality opponents. Armed with nothing more than a team’s record against quality opponents, and their average performance against those teams, we determined with a high degree of certainty the top Super Bowl contenders. Here they are, ranked in order from the most likely Super Bowl champion to the most clearly outclassed playoff pretender. It may come as no surprise that only two teams enter the postseason with a legitimate shot at a Super Bowl title.
THE CONTENDERS
New England – 7-1 against quality opponents; avg. score, 24.6-14.7 (+9.9)
Fret all you want about New England's secondary, but no team enters the playoffs with more games and more wins against quality opponents under its belt. In other words, the Patriots are the most battle-tested team in the postseason. New England also boasts the most impressive average scoring margin against quality opponents. Hanging over New England’s head, of course, is the memory a 34-20 regular-season loss at Pittsburgh. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: The Patriots won the Super Bowl last year with a leading rusher, Antowain Smith, who averaged 3.5 yards per carry. Corey Dillon averages 4.7 yards per carry.
Pittsburgh – 6-1; 22.4-15.1 (+7.3)
The Steelers looked strong against quality opponents, trailing only New England with six quality wins, but they faced just three teams all season that made the playoffs. Of course, Pittsburgh passed those tests with flying colors, posting a 3-0 record and outscoring New England, Philadelphia and the N.Y. Jets by an average score of 26.0-9.7, by the far the best performance in the league against playoff-bound teams. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: The Steelers average just 4.0 yards per rushing attempt, 18th best in the NFL regular season, but lead the league in attempts per game.
THE PRETENDERS
Atlanta – 2-1; 29.3-25.3 (+4.0)
The Falcons faced the easiest schedule of any playoff team (opponents were 111-145). But Atlanta boasts the NFC’s most impressive record against top competition. In fact, Atlanta’s point differential against quality opponents is better than its point differential against all opponents (21.2-21.1). With Philly’s Terrell Owens hobbled and the Eagles limping to the finish line, the Falcons are the team to beat in the NFC. Yes, it’s a sad commentary on the state of the conference. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: The Falcons are just +3 in scoring differential (340-337). The narrowest scoring margin by any Super Bowl participant was +14 (1979 Rams, 323-309).
Philadelphia – 2-1; 21.7-18.0 (+3.7)
The Eagles inflated their regular-season record (13-3) facing a substandard schedule this season. Opponents were a combined 116-140 and the Eagles faced just three quality opponents all season. They were hammered by Pittsburgh, squeaked by 9-7 Baltimore and crushed Green Bay which, you will soon see, is no great accomplishment. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: The Eagles faced four teams that made the postseason (Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Green Bay and St. Louis and outscored those opponents by a mere 1 point per game (21.0-20.0).
Indianapolis – 4-3; 26.4-25.1 (+1.3)
The hand-wringing in New England has already begun. “How do you stop the mighty Colts offense?” Well, the Colts don’t look so mighty when stripped of their stat-padding performances against Detroit, Chicago and Houston. In fact, five playoff teams posted a better scoring differential against quality opponents. Another thing to keep in mind when you marvel at the Indy offense: New England boasts a coach who has engineered the greatest defensive performances in modern NFL history. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: The worst defense ever to win a Super Bowl (1983 Raiders) surrendered 21.1 PPG. The Colts surrender 21.9 PPG.
Denver – 2-3; 21.4-19.0 (+2.4)
Denver did not beat a single quality opponent on the road all season. To make the Super Bowl, they’ll have to beat three quality opponents on the road. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: Only one NFC team, Philadelphia, posted a better scoring differential than Denver’s +77 (381 PF, 304 PA).
St. Louis – 4-4; 22.6-28.9 (-6.3)
We were surprised to find that the gutless Rams posted the most quality wins and faced the toughest schedule of any NFC playoff team this season (opponents were a combined 125-131). However, when St. Louis lost to quality opponents it was by an average of more than 21 points per game. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: St. Louis’ lone quality win on the road came at Seattle in Week Five.
New York Jets – 3-5; 17.6-18.9 (-1.3)
The Jets were haunted all season by the notion that they can’t win the big game. In the wildcard round they go to the site of their lone quality road win of the season: San Diego. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: Curtis Martin led the league in rushing this year but only two players, Emmitt Smith and Terrell Davis, won a rushing championship and a Super Bowl in the same season.
San Diego – 2-4; 24.3-25.0 (-0.7)
The Chargers had a nice regular-season run, but the postseason will include no more than one victory. San Diego faced three of the AFC’s other five playoff teams in the regular season and lost to all three (though split with Denver). Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: The Chargers did not record a single quality road win this season.
THE HOPELESS
Seattle – 1-3; 17.7-32.7 (-15.0)
You simply can’t cut it in the postseason when you’re outscored by a 2-1 margin against quality opponents. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: The Seahawks saved their best for last, recording their lone quality win of the season against Atlanta in Week 17.
Minnesota – 1-5; 26.0-28.2 (-2.2)
The Vikings’ lone quality win came against 9-7 Jacksonville, a team which failed to make the playoffs.
Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: The Vikings and the Falcons are the only NFC teams to post a winning record against the AFC (3-1).
Green Bay – 0-3; 24.3-40.0 (-15.7)
It pretty much says it all about the NFC when the 10-6 Packers faced just three teams all season with winning records, lost all three, surrendered 40 points per game in those contests, and still won their division. The Packers simply have no hope of winning more than one playoff game. Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: Favre and the Packers have won just two postseason games since beating San Francisco in the 1997 NFC title game.
