3* Georgia/OK State under 62 -110
Whenever I look at over/unders, I try to establish what style of game will be played. I establish this from a number of different angles and theories. Since this is the first game of the season, it's difficult to establish accurate trends.
However, we know a few things that have driven this line up, and overinflated it making the under an attractive option:
The first is the fact that OK State returns their big 3 - QB Robinson, RB Hunter (special), and WR Dez Bryant. But they lose 2 key offensive linemen and their playmaking TE Brandon Pettigrew. They technically lose half of their offensive line, and that is one of the hardest things to make gel as a unit, especially against a good defense.
We established last year that the Big 12 was over inflated, over hyped, video game offensive numbers were the result of mostly poor defenses. i.e. the Oklahoma Sooners hung 61 on this OK State team but just 14 on UF in the title game and Ole Miss scoring 47 on Texas Tech. My point here is OK State has a good offense, but not as good as perceived. And sometimes when things turn into a pinball match, scores snowball out of control.
However, in most defensive battles, every possession counts and it turns more into a chess match than a track meet. That's a little more of what I expect here.
It's well documented that Georgia replaces Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno and most squares will run to the ticket booth saying that the Bulldogs are in some kind of rebuilding mode. If you watched Georgia at all, Stafford, while being a strong armed NFL Prospect, never did anything special for the Bulldogs, and never elevated their offensive numbers to some ridiculous levels to where his loss is devastating to the program. And while Knowshon was a dynamic back whose circus leaps and athleticism were flashed all over highlight reels, he was hardly unstoppable. With good blocking, running backs are the easiest position to replace on a football team. Qb is not so easy, but you replace a strong armed underachiever, with a avg armed decision maker and game manager and you have the recipe for a ball control slug fest.
Cox will not be zipping balls around the yard, but he won't do anything stupid either. Reports are that he is a very mature QB that knows what he is doing and manages the game well. That sounds like ball control to me. And I fully expect the new QB to struggle some with his first game on the road. The pressure of potentially having to come out and keep up with OSU's offense is not a good thing for a new QB. Georgia should not put up many points in this game regardless of how bad OSUs defense can be.
The Bulldogs placed 5 of their defensive starters on the All-SEC Team. They are very strong up the middle putting their DT and MLB on the 1st team and FS on the 2nd team. Their defense, like UF's, has grown up together. The majority of their defense is older, wiser, and should be the strength of their football team. Outstanding defense can usually wreck the pace of a game, and a game manager at QB will continue that pace as Georgia dinks and dunks their way down the field with occassional bombs to AJ Green.
I tried to figure what game that OK State played last year was most like the game they will play on Saturday vs. Georgia, and to me that game was the Texas game. Texas doesn't have some gimmick offense of no huddling or some crazy spread attack. The base of their offense is typically a pro style attack, somewhat similar to what Georgia runs. And Texas' defense was stout, somewhat similar to Georgia. That game last year ended at 28-24, 52 points.
Georgia played many low scoring games on the road last year as well, and their initial meeting 2 years ago with OK State was below the 62.
Finally, defenses are usually ahead of gelling offenses to start the season. Offenses take some time to gel and figure out how to move the ball and get into a rhythm.
All of that to me points to an under.
OK State 28
Georgia 25
Whenever I look at over/unders, I try to establish what style of game will be played. I establish this from a number of different angles and theories. Since this is the first game of the season, it's difficult to establish accurate trends.
However, we know a few things that have driven this line up, and overinflated it making the under an attractive option:
The first is the fact that OK State returns their big 3 - QB Robinson, RB Hunter (special), and WR Dez Bryant. But they lose 2 key offensive linemen and their playmaking TE Brandon Pettigrew. They technically lose half of their offensive line, and that is one of the hardest things to make gel as a unit, especially against a good defense.
We established last year that the Big 12 was over inflated, over hyped, video game offensive numbers were the result of mostly poor defenses. i.e. the Oklahoma Sooners hung 61 on this OK State team but just 14 on UF in the title game and Ole Miss scoring 47 on Texas Tech. My point here is OK State has a good offense, but not as good as perceived. And sometimes when things turn into a pinball match, scores snowball out of control.
However, in most defensive battles, every possession counts and it turns more into a chess match than a track meet. That's a little more of what I expect here.
It's well documented that Georgia replaces Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno and most squares will run to the ticket booth saying that the Bulldogs are in some kind of rebuilding mode. If you watched Georgia at all, Stafford, while being a strong armed NFL Prospect, never did anything special for the Bulldogs, and never elevated their offensive numbers to some ridiculous levels to where his loss is devastating to the program. And while Knowshon was a dynamic back whose circus leaps and athleticism were flashed all over highlight reels, he was hardly unstoppable. With good blocking, running backs are the easiest position to replace on a football team. Qb is not so easy, but you replace a strong armed underachiever, with a avg armed decision maker and game manager and you have the recipe for a ball control slug fest.
Cox will not be zipping balls around the yard, but he won't do anything stupid either. Reports are that he is a very mature QB that knows what he is doing and manages the game well. That sounds like ball control to me. And I fully expect the new QB to struggle some with his first game on the road. The pressure of potentially having to come out and keep up with OSU's offense is not a good thing for a new QB. Georgia should not put up many points in this game regardless of how bad OSUs defense can be.
The Bulldogs placed 5 of their defensive starters on the All-SEC Team. They are very strong up the middle putting their DT and MLB on the 1st team and FS on the 2nd team. Their defense, like UF's, has grown up together. The majority of their defense is older, wiser, and should be the strength of their football team. Outstanding defense can usually wreck the pace of a game, and a game manager at QB will continue that pace as Georgia dinks and dunks their way down the field with occassional bombs to AJ Green.
I tried to figure what game that OK State played last year was most like the game they will play on Saturday vs. Georgia, and to me that game was the Texas game. Texas doesn't have some gimmick offense of no huddling or some crazy spread attack. The base of their offense is typically a pro style attack, somewhat similar to what Georgia runs. And Texas' defense was stout, somewhat similar to Georgia. That game last year ended at 28-24, 52 points.
Georgia played many low scoring games on the road last year as well, and their initial meeting 2 years ago with OK State was below the 62.
Finally, defenses are usually ahead of gelling offenses to start the season. Offenses take some time to gel and figure out how to move the ball and get into a rhythm.
All of that to me points to an under.
OK State 28
Georgia 25
