Boxslayer's CFB Week 9 (26-15, +22.80 units, 63%)

[Boxslayer]

Final Card:

3* Penn State Nittany Lions -2 -110
2* West Virginia Mountaineers -3 -120 (win/thur)
2* Kansas Jayhawks -1 -110
2* Oklahoma State Cowboys +13 -110
2* Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -14 -110
2* Georgia Bulldogs +1 -110
1* Wake Forest/Miami UNDER 41 -110
1* Ole Miss Rebels -6.5 -110
0.5* Oklahoma State Cowboys ML +350

Usually have between 4-5 plays. Today I have 7. Keeping the units reasonable, no big plays. Putting 13 units at risk, so it's a risky weekend - but had a lot of games that qualified as plays.

Good luck this weekend

 

[MMfan]

2* Kansas Jayhawks -1 -110

I like this play here for a few reasons, and I am keeping it small for a few reasons.

I think Kansas has a good recipe to defeat Texas Tech:

1. Kansas is at home. Big plus. Kansas has 2 losses this year - both on the road. 4-0 at home, they are tough in their backyard. Meanwhile, Texas Tech can be very bad on the road historically, and they can lay some pretty nasty eggs when they get out of their comfy surroundings.

2. Score for Score - Todd Reesing and this Kansas offense can go score for score with Tech if they need to. Tech's defense is bad, especially their pass defense. Their pass D has been lit up all year, and Reesing has comparable numbers to Harrell and can match him score for score if necessary.

3. Battle tested - Kansas has played a much tougher schedule than Tech. In fact, Tech hasnt faced any top 25 teams yet.

4. Coaching, defense and special teams - Kansas is by the far the best defense that Tech has faced this season. Couple that with the road and it should slow them down. I'll take Mangina over Leach in this type of game. Mangina has shown he can win it. In regards to special teams, Tech is pulling students out of the stands to kick FGs it has gotten so bad. In a game where you won't want to waste an offensive possession and have a drive come up empty, give me the team that doesnt anticipate any major problems with extra points. Tech has missed 6 PATs this year and half their FGs.

Tech in a potential look ahead spot vs. Texas, but that is not a big deal as Tech has won every game for the past 6 years before their annual UT showdown. I'm actually keeping this play small because Kansas is off a tough loss to Oklahoma, and I think Tech's offense is good.

Bottom line, you have the better coached team, the more fundamentally sound team, playing at home, with more motivation, comparable QBs, in a look ahead spot for Tech and they have no defense.

Kansas 34
Texas Tech 28

Ummmm...your game total is going to be Texas Tech's total...

 

[Boxslayer]

Ummmm...your game total is going to be Texas Tech's total...

CAREFUL. Something doesn't feel right about this game, and this is actually a play I debated laying off altogether. I may end up downgrading this to a 1*. You rarely see the "reverse trap", but of all of the games I have seen this year, this one has some of the most potential. I have seen everyone and their mother recognize this game as a potential trap line, and wanting to play this blindly bc the "books are trying to tell you something"....that is not a good thing when lots of members of the public and squares are recognizing this game as a "trap". I have seen Tech play 3 games now, and their offense is very good and they are like 6-0 the week before the Texas game and dont think they are in much danger of looking ahead here. That all being said, my writeup indicates many more reasons to play the Jayhawks, and for now I am sticking with the play. Something deep in my gut tells me I may be getting off this play and I am monitoring line movement and action right now. Stay tuned.

Thanks for the hot tip, MMFan. As I stated twice in this thread (above from Page 1), once I started looking around a little bit and monitored the line, I didn't feel good about this play. It was a square play all the way, and I really screwed up here - which doesn't happen often. There hasnt been one play that I have posted this year that I ended up buying back or state my intentions to potentially buy it back, but this was the only one I have said that about so far. At the end of the day, I didnt want to get off the play because my initial reaction was to play it - so I just kept it as is. But I warned many, that it should be a small play if anything. This truly was a square play, and despite my suspicions about it - bottom line - I played it.

GL

 

[buffettgambler]

Boxslayer,
Thanks for adding some handicapping realism, fundamental principles and analysis, and undoctored success to a forum in dire need of such.
Best of luck this season.

 

[Slickwitdadick]

with u on penn st and ok st.

bol with your plays

 

[Boxslayer]

Boxslayer,
Thanks for adding some handicapping realism, fundamental principles and analysis, and undoctored success to a forum in dire need of such.
Best of luck this season.

much appreciated. miss your stuff around here

 

[EVincent]

Thanks for the hot tip, MMFan. As I stated twice in this thread (above from Page 1), once I started looking around a little bit and monitored the line, I didn't feel good about this play. It was a square play all the way, and I really screwed up here - which doesn't happen often. There hasnt been one play that I have posted this year that I ended up buying back or state my intentions to potentially buy it back, but this was the only one I have said that about so far. At the end of the day, I didnt want to get off the play because my initial reaction was to play it - so I just kept it as is. But I warned many, that it should be a small play if anything. This truly was a square play, and despite my suspicions about it - bottom line - I played it.

GL

Box, you are an asset to this forum. You just need to learn to ignore the bashers & immaturity. Lot of jokers around. Just keep doing what you do and best of luck to you.

 

[PacmanSmith]

Box:

Cant say I am sorry you lost the Texas Tech game, but good luck on the rest of the day. I am on the same side as you on many of today's games.

Pac

 

[DontTazeMeBro___]

boxslayer.. r u UF alum?

 

[Boxslayer]

Box, you are an asset to this forum. You just need to learn to ignore the bashers & immaturity. Lot of jokers around. Just keep doing what you do and best of luck to you.

it doesnt really bother me as much as i can shut the argument down very easily

i appreciate the words either way

gl

 

[Boxslayer]

Box:

Cant say I am sorry you lost the Texas Tech game, but good luck on the rest of the day. I am on the same side as you on many of today's games.

Pac

Pacman thanks for your earlier post. Feel free to share your thoughts on Tech games anytime.

 

[Boxslayer]

boxslayer.. r u UF alum?

yeah. i like the screen name

 

[SportsFan818]

can i have a quick write up on bama/tenny? i really wanna play tenny but not sure

 

[Oak3]

Final Card:

3* Penn State Nittany Lions -2 -110
2* West Virginia Mountaineers -3 -120 (win/thur)
2* Kansas Jayhawks -1 -110
2* Oklahoma State Cowboys +13 -110
2* Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -14 -110
2* Georgia Bulldogs +1 -110
1* Wake Forest/Miami UNDER 41 -110
1* Ole Miss Rebels -6.5 -110

Fan, Slayer has finished his days work, lets appreciate that
and not ask for more ?

 

[SportsFan818]

Fan, Slayer has finished his days work, lets appreciate that
and not ask for more ?

i know that, but he is an sec guy and i just want his quick opinion, he doesnt need to write a book for. that is what this forum is for after all, sharing information

 

[Boxslayer]

can i have a quick write up on bama/tenny? i really wanna play tenny but not sure

Tenn is a wounded dog w/ a tired coach. Bama is a physical favorite with a lot more at stake. Lean Bama

That being said. NO PLAY for me.

 

[Boxslayer]

Fan, Slayer has finished his days work, lets appreciate that
and not ask for more ?

i appreciate it Oak, but it's cool i enjoy talking football - that's why i am here. i admit - i never understand why guys want my, or anyone elses opinion on a game they didn't find enough advantage on to bet anyway.

how are you doing on plays today

 

[runandhide21]

Box

congrats on the florida smackdown today...damn they looked sharp that is all i gotta say...

 

[Boxslayer]

Box

congrats on the florida smackdown today...damn they looked sharp that is all i gotta say...

they are very healthy right now overall, the O-line has gelled, they are playing at a high level, their special teams overall is easily the best in the country, their defense is MUCH improved and one of the top 15 units in the country, and most importantly they have figured out their offense. Another thing is Tebow early in the year was really buying into this "I have to stay healthy" and "I am not going to run as much" concept. And he is finally running with authority again and not scared to go out there and be a playmaker.

they are primed to make a run.

their loss to Ole Miss seemed very bad at the time, but ole miss is a good team, and VERY underrated. Their are very few lines in the country have have a 1st rounder in the trenches on offense and defense AND a 3rd rounder in the trenches on offense and defense. And the bottom line is the gators overlooked them, if they make their extra point OR make their routine handoffs instead of fumbling the routine handoffs and turning it over in their own territory a couple times in a row.... maybe they are undefeated right now and probably ranked #1.

no one has come out and BEAT FL. So they will be very dangerous down the stretch.

 

[halekulani]

great pick on penn st