Shizzle thanks for posting, but I'm gonna need more than that to stop me from betting OKST. What Mack Brown wants doesnt necessarily mean Mack Brown gets. Texas on the heel of big wins over OK and MZ are suddenly laying double digits to a good football team right smack in the middle of a tough gauntlet of games? They have an average defense and a below average running game and when the "going gets tough" and you find yourself in a battle for your season, you better be able to win the tight ones with defense and a ground game. They are grossly overvalued here and if for some reason they win and cover, I may double up next week. I have Texas as the #6 team in the country. Everyone else has them unanimous #1 (rightfully so). Too much pressure on them, and too much motivation for OKST.
Shizzle thanks for posting, but I'm gonna need more than that to stop me from betting OKST. What Mack Brown wants doesnt necessarily mean Mack Brown gets. Texas on the heel of big wins over OK and MZ are suddenly laying double digits to a good football team right smack in the middle of a tough gauntlet of games? They have an average defense and a below average running game and when the "going gets tough" and you find yourself in a battle for your season, you better be able to win the tight ones with defense and a ground game. They are grossly overvalued here and if for some reason they win and cover, I may double up next week. I have Texas as the #6 team in the country. Everyone else has them unanimous #1 (rightfully so). Too much pressure on them, and too much motivation for OKST.
2* Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -14 -110
Virginia off an emotional home over time victory, now travels on the road to face a top defense, and top coach.
Many people look at Virginia and think they have had a tale of 2 seasons. But really, this is a classic case of a team who can't play football on the road. Outside of the USC loss in which USC was just the better team, when the Wahoo's have been playing at home, they have been beating good teams. When they have played on the road, they have gotten blown out by bad teams.
UVA has averaged almost 30 points per game, last 3 games (all home games) and given up 11 points per game (all home games). When they play on the road they average 6.5 points per game and give up 38. And that is to UCONN and Duke - not USC and Oklahoma.
I think we need to see a couple proper ingredients to see the Cavs struggle on the road: 1. Bad spot 2. Facing a good defense 3. Potentially getting outcoached.
I think we have the recipe for a blowout.
Tech has been cruising and their defense will hold sophomore QB Marc Verica, who took over in game 3 and has 5 career games under his belt. Fading the young, inexperienced QB on the road vs. a good defense.
Cavs are 3-8 ATS last 11 road games, home teams is 9-1 ATS in this series last 10. Jackets are 4-0 ATS last 4 after a straight up win. Stick with the Jackets when they are hot, fade the Cavs on the road, take the home team in this series.
Jackets 31
Cavs 10
Virginia off an emotional home over time victory, now travels on the road to face a top defense, and top coach.
Many people look at Virginia and think they have had a tale of 2 seasons. But really, this is a classic case of a team who can't play football on the road. Outside of the USC loss in which USC was just the better team, when the Wahoo's have been playing at home, they have been beating good teams. When they have played on the road, they have gotten blown out by bad teams.
UVA has averaged almost 30 points per game, last 3 games (all home games) and given up 11 points per game (all home games). When they play on the road they average 6.5 points per game and give up 38. And that is to UCONN and Duke - not USC and Oklahoma.
I think we need to see a couple proper ingredients to see the Cavs struggle on the road: 1. Bad spot 2. Facing a good defense 3. Potentially getting outcoached.
I think we have the recipe for a blowout.
Tech has been cruising and their defense will hold sophomore QB Marc Verica, who took over in game 3 and has 5 career games under his belt. Fading the young, inexperienced QB on the road vs. a good defense.
Cavs are 3-8 ATS last 11 road games, home teams is 9-1 ATS in this series last 10. Jackets are 4-0 ATS last 4 after a straight up win. Stick with the Jackets when they are hot, fade the Cavs on the road, take the home team in this series.
Jackets 31
Cavs 10
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3* Penn State Nittany Lions -2 -110
I have liked this bet as much as 3 weeks ago as long as things went as planned, and my have they gone as planned.
I was hoping for an OSU blowout over MSU the week before, and I got it. I was betting on Penn State struggling with Michigan, and for the most part I got it.
This Penn State team has not beaten any ranked opponents yet, but more important than who is ranked what is I see things in this Penn State team that show me they are for real. When you go on the road on a night game and handle Wisconsin in a trap game with EASE, that speaks volumes to me. When you play a Michigan team that you cant ever beat and you go down 17-3 and all of the pressure is on you, and where most teams may have folded or got into a 17-17 battle, Penn State stepped up to the challenge and exploded on them for the big victory when it mattered.
While Ohio State has had the slightly tougher schedule to date, they have not passed many of their tests. They were completely uncompetitive at USC, and didnt show a hint of life when everyone was counting them out. Their only big win this year is over a ranked Minnesota team and trust me when I say Minny is an okay football team but not top 25. They fell for the Ohio trap the week before the USC game and had a battle for their lives against an outmanned Ohio group. They battled Troy a little bit, they win a squeeker at Wisky and they couldnt score on Purdue. Just not a big fan of how this group has played football this year, and they are primed to get blown out again. This team has a very documented history now of not stepping up in big games, and Tressel is on a fine line at OSU. The rumblings will turn into Fire Tressel websites if he loses this one. Tressel's act is old and tired and I dont think he has what it takes to stop this Penn State train right now. If OSU goes down 7-0, or 10-0, they will pack it in like they always do in big games. "Here we go again" syndrome.
If Penn State goes down, I know they will fight.
Penn State had this game circled on their calendars. This is the one they want more than any of them. Not motivation problems for Penn State here and they are a very good team on the road 4-1 ATS last 5 road games, and the Buckeyes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Penn State has a lot of things going for them here. They can match up in the trenches, they have the 2nd best defense OSU has faced this year, they have the much better overall and more experienced QB right now, and they have too much speed for the Buckeyes on the edges.
Since Pryor has been named starter, this is the best defense he will face and the one dimensional nature of the Buckeye offense will catch up to them in this game. The Buckeyes are 108th in the country in passing the football, and that will hurt because Darryl Clark can throw the ball and he has a major advantage over Pryor here.
This Buckeye team can't get pressure on the QB, they cant tackle anyone in the backfield, they cant create 3rd and longs for the opposition. Meanwhile, Penn State gets good pressure on the QB as they are 14th in the country in sacks.
Penn State has scored 38+ points in every game but one game when they scored 20 vs. Purdue. This team never comes out and throws up a clunker on offense, where OSU has put up 3 vs. USC, 16 vs. Purdue, 20 vs. Wisky and 26 vs. Ohio. They have scored 30+ in only 3 of their 8 games. Penn State has held their opponents to 14 or less in 6 of their 8 games.
I have a hard time seeing Penn State score anything less than 28 points. I have OSU scoring no more than 24.
Penn State 28
Ohio State 20
I have liked this bet as much as 3 weeks ago as long as things went as planned, and my have they gone as planned.
I was hoping for an OSU blowout over MSU the week before, and I got it. I was betting on Penn State struggling with Michigan, and for the most part I got it.
This Penn State team has not beaten any ranked opponents yet, but more important than who is ranked what is I see things in this Penn State team that show me they are for real. When you go on the road on a night game and handle Wisconsin in a trap game with EASE, that speaks volumes to me. When you play a Michigan team that you cant ever beat and you go down 17-3 and all of the pressure is on you, and where most teams may have folded or got into a 17-17 battle, Penn State stepped up to the challenge and exploded on them for the big victory when it mattered.
While Ohio State has had the slightly tougher schedule to date, they have not passed many of their tests. They were completely uncompetitive at USC, and didnt show a hint of life when everyone was counting them out. Their only big win this year is over a ranked Minnesota team and trust me when I say Minny is an okay football team but not top 25. They fell for the Ohio trap the week before the USC game and had a battle for their lives against an outmanned Ohio group. They battled Troy a little bit, they win a squeeker at Wisky and they couldnt score on Purdue. Just not a big fan of how this group has played football this year, and they are primed to get blown out again. This team has a very documented history now of not stepping up in big games, and Tressel is on a fine line at OSU. The rumblings will turn into Fire Tressel websites if he loses this one. Tressel's act is old and tired and I dont think he has what it takes to stop this Penn State train right now. If OSU goes down 7-0, or 10-0, they will pack it in like they always do in big games. "Here we go again" syndrome.
If Penn State goes down, I know they will fight.
Penn State had this game circled on their calendars. This is the one they want more than any of them. Not motivation problems for Penn State here and they are a very good team on the road 4-1 ATS last 5 road games, and the Buckeyes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Penn State has a lot of things going for them here. They can match up in the trenches, they have the 2nd best defense OSU has faced this year, they have the much better overall and more experienced QB right now, and they have too much speed for the Buckeyes on the edges.
Since Pryor has been named starter, this is the best defense he will face and the one dimensional nature of the Buckeye offense will catch up to them in this game. The Buckeyes are 108th in the country in passing the football, and that will hurt because Darryl Clark can throw the ball and he has a major advantage over Pryor here.
This Buckeye team can't get pressure on the QB, they cant tackle anyone in the backfield, they cant create 3rd and longs for the opposition. Meanwhile, Penn State gets good pressure on the QB as they are 14th in the country in sacks.
Penn State has scored 38+ points in every game but one game when they scored 20 vs. Purdue. This team never comes out and throws up a clunker on offense, where OSU has put up 3 vs. USC, 16 vs. Purdue, 20 vs. Wisky and 26 vs. Ohio. They have scored 30+ in only 3 of their 8 games. Penn State has held their opponents to 14 or less in 6 of their 8 games.
I have a hard time seeing Penn State score anything less than 28 points. I have OSU scoring no more than 24.
Penn State 28
Ohio State 20
i agree okie state has a a lot of motivation. no one knows how good texas is until we actually played ou and mizzou. and i agree there is a lot of value in the line for okie state. the line is defintely inflated due to public perception and such. colt has definitely shaped to be a great and smart qb. our receivers rarely drop a pass. but BOL on your okie state pick!
by the way...i like the kansas and georgia tech picks. and i was also on wvu last night! let's cash sir and beat the books! BOL
if you lose a pick..it'll be the okie state one!
cheers.:toast:
Box
Thanks a lot for the plays as always...really liking that Kansas write up and you can get +13 for Ok State at Bodog right now...
Wanted your thoughts on LSU -1...I just think LSU so good at home and think georgia always falters in the big game (alabama) and hasnt really looked THAT great all season...what your thoughts?
Good luck tomm!
Thanks a lot for the plays as always...really liking that Kansas write up and you can get +13 for Ok State at Bodog right now...
Wanted your thoughts on LSU -1...I just think LSU so good at home and think georgia always falters in the big game (alabama) and hasnt really looked THAT great all season...what your thoughts?
Good luck tomm!
I appreciate the effort you put into cfb, Box. You are very gifted and very disciplined. Thanks a lot for sharing your thoughts. I really liked Okie St, but was afraid to bet against Texas. But thinking further, I can't be afraid to bet against a great team, if the line is inflated. Also agree on PSU. I don't think I can bet KU, but will follow on GT, even though I never would have bet that myself. Good luck to us. 
Mr. Box:
As always I appreciate your thoughts on every game. I am young and feel like I learn something new each time you post. There is always some way you decipher a game that I totally miss, and I thank you for that.:toast:
However, I feel compelled to post an argument regarding your KU pick. Yes…Yes I am a homer!! However I would like to argue your points in a respectful manner if possible.
1. Kansas is at home. Well, versus Texas Tech KU is 0-5 at home. While I understand KU is a totally different team than Tech has faced in Lawerance in the past, I think you can arguably say the same about Tech.
2. Score for Score. Your argument about the passing game is true. Both teams have a great air attack. I think the difference maker is the running game. If Tech controls the clock they win. Tech has one of the top pass rushing D’s in the country (and rush D’s) vs one of the worst pass protection O line’s. I look for some sack's and pressure on Todd. This may lead to some TO's.
3. Battle Tested – KU has beaten the following teams (CU 30-14) (Iowa St. 35-33) (Sam Houston St 38-14) (La Tech 29-0) (Florida Int. 40-10) KU has lost to (OU 45-31) & (South FL 37-34). They have played more top 25 teams than Tech, but have lost each game. I think this is a push. Tech has proven it can win on the road unlike in years past.
4.Coaching, defense and special teams – Yes Tech has an issue at the kicking position however this wont be an issue. Look for Tech’s D line to get pressure on Tood R. Tech will start out in a conservative zone coverage. After one TD look for the cover 2 man. I honestly think no one has scored on this coverage all year.
If anything Mr. Box I would lay off this game, but I am taking the Red Raiders for a 45 – 27 win. Don’t forget Tech is one of the leading teams in turnover margin at + 4. Look for + 5 to + 6 after this game.
Good luck my friend and I appreciate all you do:drink:
As always I appreciate your thoughts on every game. I am young and feel like I learn something new each time you post. There is always some way you decipher a game that I totally miss, and I thank you for that.:toast:
However, I feel compelled to post an argument regarding your KU pick. Yes…Yes I am a homer!! However I would like to argue your points in a respectful manner if possible.
1. Kansas is at home. Well, versus Texas Tech KU is 0-5 at home. While I understand KU is a totally different team than Tech has faced in Lawerance in the past, I think you can arguably say the same about Tech.
2. Score for Score. Your argument about the passing game is true. Both teams have a great air attack. I think the difference maker is the running game. If Tech controls the clock they win. Tech has one of the top pass rushing D’s in the country (and rush D’s) vs one of the worst pass protection O line’s. I look for some sack's and pressure on Todd. This may lead to some TO's.
3. Battle Tested – KU has beaten the following teams (CU 30-14) (Iowa St. 35-33) (Sam Houston St 38-14) (La Tech 29-0) (Florida Int. 40-10) KU has lost to (OU 45-31) & (South FL 37-34). They have played more top 25 teams than Tech, but have lost each game. I think this is a push. Tech has proven it can win on the road unlike in years past.
4.Coaching, defense and special teams – Yes Tech has an issue at the kicking position however this wont be an issue. Look for Tech’s D line to get pressure on Tood R. Tech will start out in a conservative zone coverage. After one TD look for the cover 2 man. I honestly think no one has scored on this coverage all year.
If anything Mr. Box I would lay off this game, but I am taking the Red Raiders for a 45 – 27 win. Don’t forget Tech is one of the leading teams in turnover margin at + 4. Look for + 5 to + 6 after this game.
Good luck my friend and I appreciate all you do:drink:
I don't care if you have a TT avatar. If you bring valid points, I'm all for it.
Most of these points look valid.
#1 - I dont think Kansas needs to run the ball in this game. If you look at every game when Tech has given up points (31 to NEB, 28 to KST, 25 to A&M, 24 to EASTWASH) the leading rusher in all of those games had like 80 yards, but every QB was able to shred Tech's defense through the air - and this is by far the best offense Tech has faced this year.
#3 - How has Tech proven they can win on the road? Beating very, very marginal teams on the road hasn't proven much to me.
#4 - Coaching, defense and special teams - and nothing about your argument really supported or denied any of those topics.
Kansas reminds me a lot of Wake Forest at times. Well coached, they do the little things right, etc and I think Tech will have to play an extremely good football game to win today. Considering they are on the road and have Texas on deck, I'm not sure they have it in them.
GL
