4* Mississippi State Bulldogs +2 -110
This game has all of the stars aligned.
One of my favorite betting angles is betting on a team that is off an emotional home win that now has to go out and travel on the road the next week. Making this even more difficult for Vanderbilt is this let-down/look-ahead sandwich spot as Vandy is off a big win vs. Auburn, plays lowly Miss State this week, and has Georgia on deck. Making this even more difficult for Vandy is the fact that Miss State is off a bye week here and has had 2 weeks to prepare. Add another log to the fire in that Chris Nickson is questionable in this game, and I realize McKenzie Adams came in and did an admirable job, but the bottom line is Chris Nickson is the starter for a reason. Even if Nickson plays I still like this play based on the capping fundamentals listed above. Add another log to the fire in that Miss State needs this win bad, Vandy is starting to get a little too confident, Miss State is at home, and the SEC West owns the SEC East. Miss State has always played up to the level of competition, and the Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, Vandy has played down to the competition and has shown they are vunerable in these types of spots as the Commodores are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Public is on Vandy heavy and this team is simply not special enough to overcome all of these obstacles. More cowbell....
Miss State 23
Vanderbilt 16
This game has all of the stars aligned.
One of my favorite betting angles is betting on a team that is off an emotional home win that now has to go out and travel on the road the next week. Making this even more difficult for Vanderbilt is this let-down/look-ahead sandwich spot as Vandy is off a big win vs. Auburn, plays lowly Miss State this week, and has Georgia on deck. Making this even more difficult for Vandy is the fact that Miss State is off a bye week here and has had 2 weeks to prepare. Add another log to the fire in that Chris Nickson is questionable in this game, and I realize McKenzie Adams came in and did an admirable job, but the bottom line is Chris Nickson is the starter for a reason. Even if Nickson plays I still like this play based on the capping fundamentals listed above. Add another log to the fire in that Miss State needs this win bad, Vandy is starting to get a little too confident, Miss State is at home, and the SEC West owns the SEC East. Miss State has always played up to the level of competition, and the Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, Vandy has played down to the competition and has shown they are vunerable in these types of spots as the Commodores are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Public is on Vandy heavy and this team is simply not special enough to overcome all of these obstacles. More cowbell....
Miss State 23
Vanderbilt 16
2* Minnesota Golden Gophers +13 -110
Illinois is off of two big, big games - first against Penn State and then Michigan. This is their moment to *sigh* and have a let down that the hard part of their schedule is over. However, they have a very motivated Golden Gopher team coming to town in this one with a coach making his return to Champaign, IL a very big emotional game for this Minnesota coaching staff, and a very nice spot for this Minnesota team to proclaim to the college football world that they are for real. Do I think they are 5-1 for real? No. But don't underestimate the power of one team being extremely motivated for this game, and another team not caring as much as they should. Minnesota is finding ways to win games and stay competitive, whether you like their competition they have faced or not. Illinois giving double digits on top of it all and the Zooker is notorious for playing down to the competition. New Def Co for Minny has them sitting at #2 in the country in turnover margin, and I don't think that is a good thing for Juice Williams and his mistake-prone nature passing the football. Illinois' swiss cheese defense does not match up well against the up-start Minnesota offense. Give me Minnesota's special teams over the Illini as well. Benn is not getting the ball as much as I would like to see, and Juice's 11/6 TD to INT ratio is alarming. Adam Weber is playing very good football right now and although Juice is talented, I'd rather have Weber to manage this game.
Minnesota has historically played Illinois' tough and the Golden Gophers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings vs. the Illini. They have shown an ability to go out on the road and stay close as the Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and they are a team that you stick with when they are hot as they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Give me special teams and turnover advantages vs. a swiss cheese defense that will not be motivated for this game and I'll happily grab the 13 points.
Illinois 31
Minnesota 24
Illinois is off of two big, big games - first against Penn State and then Michigan. This is their moment to *sigh* and have a let down that the hard part of their schedule is over. However, they have a very motivated Golden Gopher team coming to town in this one with a coach making his return to Champaign, IL a very big emotional game for this Minnesota coaching staff, and a very nice spot for this Minnesota team to proclaim to the college football world that they are for real. Do I think they are 5-1 for real? No. But don't underestimate the power of one team being extremely motivated for this game, and another team not caring as much as they should. Minnesota is finding ways to win games and stay competitive, whether you like their competition they have faced or not. Illinois giving double digits on top of it all and the Zooker is notorious for playing down to the competition. New Def Co for Minny has them sitting at #2 in the country in turnover margin, and I don't think that is a good thing for Juice Williams and his mistake-prone nature passing the football. Illinois' swiss cheese defense does not match up well against the up-start Minnesota offense. Give me Minnesota's special teams over the Illini as well. Benn is not getting the ball as much as I would like to see, and Juice's 11/6 TD to INT ratio is alarming. Adam Weber is playing very good football right now and although Juice is talented, I'd rather have Weber to manage this game.
Minnesota has historically played Illinois' tough and the Golden Gophers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings vs. the Illini. They have shown an ability to go out on the road and stay close as the Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and they are a team that you stick with when they are hot as they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Give me special teams and turnover advantages vs. a swiss cheese defense that will not be motivated for this game and I'll happily grab the 13 points.
Illinois 31
Minnesota 24
Yes I think Miss State wins straight up.
I also like the Gators tonight but it would be for 1*-2* if I played it. LSU QB making his first road start, cocky Urban Meyer has had his offense criticized and they have been very vanilla all season long. I think Meyer opens up the playbook and throws the kitchen sink at LSU tonight. Brandon James and the Gator special teams will also be a big difference maker. LSU will look to run the football, and Meyer's defense is very good at stopping the run when they face a good rushing offense and they load up to stop it. LSU will play musical chairs at QB, the Swamp will be rocking tonight and I think Meyer will look for some more style points on National TV if he can get them. LSU can "afford" a loss more than FL can and the Gators backs are against the wall. This is a good stage for them to have a coming out party and I think they take advantage. A little revenge on the Gators mind from the tough loss at LSU last year. Line is a little fishy and I think LSU is the obvious underdog.
I also like the Gators tonight but it would be for 1*-2* if I played it. LSU QB making his first road start, cocky Urban Meyer has had his offense criticized and they have been very vanilla all season long. I think Meyer opens up the playbook and throws the kitchen sink at LSU tonight. Brandon James and the Gator special teams will also be a big difference maker. LSU will look to run the football, and Meyer's defense is very good at stopping the run when they face a good rushing offense and they load up to stop it. LSU will play musical chairs at QB, the Swamp will be rocking tonight and I think Meyer will look for some more style points on National TV if he can get them. LSU can "afford" a loss more than FL can and the Gators backs are against the wall. This is a good stage for them to have a coming out party and I think they take advantage. A little revenge on the Gators mind from the tough loss at LSU last year. Line is a little fishy and I think LSU is the obvious underdog.
1* Penn State Nittany Lions -6 -110
A lot of public bettors always love the "bounceback" angle. Wisconsin won't lose 3 games in a row, just because they won't. I think Penn State is a good football team, and this Big Ten is theirs for the taking. They have won their past 12 games by 7 points or more, and when they win they typically cover these types of spreads. I think Wisconsin is a very soft football team, and that dates back for the past few years. They can't win close games, they can't take hits going over the middle, and Penn State will smack this team in the mouth and run by them like they did last year en route to a 38-7 victory. I don't see much that has changed from last year to this year that makes me think that Wisconsin matches up better and closed the gap just because they are playing at home. If anything, the gap has widened, IMO and Penn State is better this year. Wisconsin QB Allan Evridge is banged up, and Daryll Clark has never been sharper. Coaching, QB, leadership, toughness, athleticism all point to Penn State for me. Wisconsin is doubting themselves, thinking back on what could have been stating that they are 5 point away from being undefeated. Well, if they keep looking back on what could have been, Penn State will be the brick wall that they run into. Penn State has a big part of their schedule coming up and they need to kick it into another gear and I dont see them losing to a Wisky team that is in the midst of a tailspin.
Penn State 31
Wisconsin 17
A lot of public bettors always love the "bounceback" angle. Wisconsin won't lose 3 games in a row, just because they won't. I think Penn State is a good football team, and this Big Ten is theirs for the taking. They have won their past 12 games by 7 points or more, and when they win they typically cover these types of spreads. I think Wisconsin is a very soft football team, and that dates back for the past few years. They can't win close games, they can't take hits going over the middle, and Penn State will smack this team in the mouth and run by them like they did last year en route to a 38-7 victory. I don't see much that has changed from last year to this year that makes me think that Wisconsin matches up better and closed the gap just because they are playing at home. If anything, the gap has widened, IMO and Penn State is better this year. Wisconsin QB Allan Evridge is banged up, and Daryll Clark has never been sharper. Coaching, QB, leadership, toughness, athleticism all point to Penn State for me. Wisconsin is doubting themselves, thinking back on what could have been stating that they are 5 point away from being undefeated. Well, if they keep looking back on what could have been, Penn State will be the brick wall that they run into. Penn State has a big part of their schedule coming up and they need to kick it into another gear and I dont see them losing to a Wisky team that is in the midst of a tailspin.
Penn State 31
Wisconsin 17
3* Miami Hurricanes -17 -110
I don't know why, but Randy Shannon coaches like a man in these types of games where he knows he has the superior team, and coaches like a vagina in the games where he thinks he may have some competition.
They will open it up on offense in this game, and allow Marve and Harris to go wild, they will rotate QBs, make plays and play loose. Too much talent on UM's side of the ball and UCF is the perfect team for them to take their frustrations out on.
Miami's defense will smother UCF, who will be rendered one-dimensional in this game. UCF QB Rob Calbrese is completing 45% of his passes and has a 1/3 TD/INT ratio. Not very good vs. this UM defense.
Miami 31
UCF 3
I don't know why, but Randy Shannon coaches like a man in these types of games where he knows he has the superior team, and coaches like a vagina in the games where he thinks he may have some competition.
They will open it up on offense in this game, and allow Marve and Harris to go wild, they will rotate QBs, make plays and play loose. Too much talent on UM's side of the ball and UCF is the perfect team for them to take their frustrations out on.
Miami's defense will smother UCF, who will be rendered one-dimensional in this game. UCF QB Rob Calbrese is completing 45% of his passes and has a 1/3 TD/INT ratio. Not very good vs. this UM defense.
Miami 31
UCF 3
no play, i can sit here and say pros and cons for each team and how they matchup and what kind of spot they are in but it all cancels out and at the end of the day i dont like either side
tennessee has shown no fight this year and they are playing bad football, and i am not laying 12 points with georgia in a rivalry game
no prob bryan
5-1, +8.7 this week
not to mention i made it very clear i liked Florida and the over in multiple threads
12-4, +22 units or so past 3 weeks
21-13, +20.20 units YTD, 62%
pardon my gloating but i'm feelin pretty happy about this annual CFB withdrawal i'm about to make
see ya next week
5-1, +8.7 this week
not to mention i made it very clear i liked Florida and the over in multiple threads
12-4, +22 units or so past 3 weeks
21-13, +20.20 units YTD, 62%
pardon my gloating but i'm feelin pretty happy about this annual CFB withdrawal i'm about to make
see ya next week
