Box, you are so right about FLA's "D" being the beast here. Very much like NE in NFL 2 years ago, the "O" was so dominant, the general public & some media actually thought their "D" was dominant too. Well, when Brady & co couldn't blow the doors open on NYG, the "D" was exposed (albeit with a miraculous 1st down catch), and couldn't come up with the stops it needed. If TEN scores more than 10 saturday, I'll be flabbergasted.
by the way is the NFL survivor thing where you only pick 1 team a week to win, and you can keep picking them if you like them each week, or do you have to map out the schedule and you can only pick the team once and once you do they are "burned" for the year and you cant pick them again?
What has Deonte Thompson done in his time at UF thus far to lead you to believe that he is an impact player during SEC play? What has Emmanuel Moody done during his career to lead you to believe that he is an impact player during sec play and the savior to this offense? Deonte's only shot of catching a football is if it gets stuck in his facemask or if he is standing all alone vs TROY, and Moody doesn't enter the game vs troy until the 3rd quarter and gets benched for yet another case of the fumbles shortly after. Those guys suck right now. And to anyone not wearing orange and blue glasses, those guys suck (if people even know their names). Yet those are the guys being brought up as to why UF will cover - unproven guys that barely did anything vs Troy and Western Kentucky. The homerism is thick in your response, and if we were on gatorcountry i would respond, but for the sake of gambling, i stopped reading after that first line. You can't go back and forth with a homer, it's a never ending argument. I gotta save my breath. Until next time....(go gators)
And it's one right angle to tackle Brandon James to make it a TD less. Or one better coverage on Harvin to do the same. Or one better pass from Crompton to down the sideline to make it a TD more.
The inexperience at the WR position is still very very real for Florida. What's to make us think that UF will not be running anymore bad routes in this game with the poor experience at WR that exists?
Expect serious blitzing in this game from Tennessee to try to hit Tebow early and often while these inexperienced WRs are busy running their deep routes and not trying to come back to the QB or unawareness to find soft spots in the zone. UFs kryptonite has always been a heavy blitz, and Monte Kiffin knows how to dial them up from all angles, including cornerback (Ronde Barber anyone?)
Regarding this minor controversy over the Florida under:
If there is one thing that I have learned from watching/tailing you Box, it is that if your play kind of makes me go, "really?" or "ah damnit, I was liking the opposite," that's especially when I should tail your play. :toast: for the education!
Despite an average (but winning!) first couple of weeks, you have posted some seriously educated picks that lots of people were skeptical of. Good luck and keep up the great work man (<)<
If there is one thing that I have learned from watching/tailing you Box, it is that if your play kind of makes me go, "really?" or "ah damnit, I was liking the opposite," that's especially when I should tail your play. :toast: for the education!
Despite an average (but winning!) first couple of weeks, you have posted some seriously educated picks that lots of people were skeptical of. Good luck and keep up the great work man (<)<
This is the best compliment a handicapper can get, IMO.
I've said it before and I'll say it again:
You never want to have friends with you who love what you like. You always want to be alone on an island when gambling. Everytime people come in my thread and say they love the same side, I wince. I love when 20 people come in here and tell me what a moron I am. I entertain their viewpoint to see if I may be missing anything, but typically it's all stuff I am already aware of.
I love when I picked the Oakland Raiders the other day vs. the Chargers, I had like 4 people say they were on the other side and some other clown go "Yikes". LOL. I upped my units 2 more personally.
98% of sports bettors LOSE in the long run. That means I want 99 people to tell me I am on the wrong side, and I want 1 guy to agree.
Liking my UF/Tenn UNDER pick and scared about the Miami pick if you know what I mean.
98% of gamblers lose because they have no idea how to leverage their bets against their bankroll and have no idea what variance means. In the long run these guys will still win 48% of their bets but wont make it thru the year.I have to agree that being on the same side of the public is never a good feeling but more times than not, hopefully, its at a better number. GL and continued success!
3* Boise State Broncos -7 -116
Hooked the extra .5 point to get off that 7.5.
I tried to find reasons to take Fresno and play Devil's Advocate, I really did. But it's just not a good play. A lot of things point to Boise here, too much for me to lay off the game and obviously make Boise a solid play. I'll join the public on this one, and lay the wood with the Broncos.
First thing's first, will we see some kind of a let down from Boise? I don't think so. The Oregon game is long gone, they whooped Miami of Ohio, they have Bowling Green on deck, this game vs. Fresno is too important for them to overlook. Obviously, Boise has BCS hopes each year and in order to realize those goals, not only do they have to win every game, but they need to do so in convincing and impressive fashion. With a national TV game, no look aheads or let downs, Fresno should get a fully focused Boise State team.
Boise is obviously a juggernaut at home, but they are still a good football team on the road. Broncos are 6-1 ATS last 7 games as a road favorite. They can go on the road and cover as a fave. They have beaten Fresno 4 straight times. Last year was a 61-10 ass kicking in Boise. While Fresno did not have Ryan Mathews, there is no excuse to give up 61 points in a football game. Fresno's Brandstater is out of the picture, and in comes Ryan Colburn with 50 career pass attempts making his 1st big time start on national TV vs a very good Boise State defense. Colburn does get Ryan Mathews in this game, and he makes the point spread tight with his ability to run the football, but he isn't worth 10 points, as I felt this line would be in the 17 range.
Fresno is not some powerhouse at home, as they are 5-16 ATS last 21 games at home. And after their super disappointing loss at Wisconsin, as much as they will be up to play Boise, you have the "oh no, not again" syndrome creeping in on this team's psyche if Boise State jumps out on top. Fresno is an astounding 3-23 ATS in their last 26 games following a Straight up loss and you have to wonder how the overtime loss at Camp Randall will effect this team. This team does not handle losses well under Pat Hill and they do not bounce back well.
2 years ago in Fresno was a 13 point game, probably a little more like the game we will see on Friday. But I love Boise' head coach Chris Peterson, I like Kellen Moore at QB, etc.
When looking at this game: Coach, quarterback, defense, history, motivation, trends and intangibles all point to Boise State and that means they should have no problems covering a 1 score spread. Expect Ryan Mathews ability to run the ball keep this game close, but Bosie runs away with it late. This Fresno defense is just not good enough.
Boise State 31
Fresno State 17
Hooked the extra .5 point to get off that 7.5.
I tried to find reasons to take Fresno and play Devil's Advocate, I really did. But it's just not a good play. A lot of things point to Boise here, too much for me to lay off the game and obviously make Boise a solid play. I'll join the public on this one, and lay the wood with the Broncos.
First thing's first, will we see some kind of a let down from Boise? I don't think so. The Oregon game is long gone, they whooped Miami of Ohio, they have Bowling Green on deck, this game vs. Fresno is too important for them to overlook. Obviously, Boise has BCS hopes each year and in order to realize those goals, not only do they have to win every game, but they need to do so in convincing and impressive fashion. With a national TV game, no look aheads or let downs, Fresno should get a fully focused Boise State team.
Boise is obviously a juggernaut at home, but they are still a good football team on the road. Broncos are 6-1 ATS last 7 games as a road favorite. They can go on the road and cover as a fave. They have beaten Fresno 4 straight times. Last year was a 61-10 ass kicking in Boise. While Fresno did not have Ryan Mathews, there is no excuse to give up 61 points in a football game. Fresno's Brandstater is out of the picture, and in comes Ryan Colburn with 50 career pass attempts making his 1st big time start on national TV vs a very good Boise State defense. Colburn does get Ryan Mathews in this game, and he makes the point spread tight with his ability to run the football, but he isn't worth 10 points, as I felt this line would be in the 17 range.
Fresno is not some powerhouse at home, as they are 5-16 ATS last 21 games at home. And after their super disappointing loss at Wisconsin, as much as they will be up to play Boise, you have the "oh no, not again" syndrome creeping in on this team's psyche if Boise State jumps out on top. Fresno is an astounding 3-23 ATS in their last 26 games following a Straight up loss and you have to wonder how the overtime loss at Camp Randall will effect this team. This team does not handle losses well under Pat Hill and they do not bounce back well.
2 years ago in Fresno was a 13 point game, probably a little more like the game we will see on Friday. But I love Boise' head coach Chris Peterson, I like Kellen Moore at QB, etc.
When looking at this game: Coach, quarterback, defense, history, motivation, trends and intangibles all point to Boise State and that means they should have no problems covering a 1 score spread. Expect Ryan Mathews ability to run the ball keep this game close, but Bosie runs away with it late. This Fresno defense is just not good enough.
Boise State 31
Fresno State 17
well, that's convenient, because the really salient points came after that. I was simply listing some of those guys as options, but the key elements are: rainey/demps will approximately equal harvin, and cooper will step up into louis murphy's role. additionally, hernandez is going to have a HUGE year.
But i see where you are coming from dismissing the rest of the post, because I wouldn't want to have to answer for monte kiffin's results at home against a mediocre UCLA squad and a freshman QB either
well, that's convenient, because the really salient points came after that. I was simply listing some of those guys as options, but the key elements are: rainey/demps will approximately equal harvin, and cooper will step up into louis murphy's role. additionally, hernandez is going to have a HUGE year.
But i see where you are coming from dismissing the rest of the post, because I wouldn't want to have to answer for monte kiffin's results at home against a mediocre UCLA squad and a freshman QB either
Dude, the rest of the post was asinine and full of homerism.
For example:
What do you mean Monte Kiffin's defense has things to answer for? The fact that they gave up only 19 points in COLLEGE after 3 Crompton turnovers? Or the fact that they are allowing 13 PPG so far? Or is it the fact that they didn't allow 100 yards rushing to anyone yet? The fact that they forced the UCLA QB to complete less than 50% of his passes? The fact that they only allowed 100 yards passing in the UCLA game? Or maybe it's the fact that the longest pass play they have given up this season so far has been a measly 14 yards? The most total yardage any receiver has gained on them this season has been 24 yards.
I'm not really sure what about any of that constitutes bad defense or something to answer for. You act like Tennessee gave up 40 points, 200 yards rushing and 400 passing. The only reason it is considered bad defense by you is because it is Lane Kiffin that is doing the coaching and you're a homer so you hate all things Lane Kiffin so it's bad defense. This is why I didn't respond.
And Rainey and Demps could have sex, conceive a super child, and it wouldn't be half the player that Percy Harvin is or was.
This is too much homerism and nagging over me picking a freakin UNDER. I dont even wanna see how bad some of your guys panties would be in a wad if I picked Tennessee +30. God forbid the perfect Gators don't cover a 30 point spread! I would be hung and burned at the stake by you homers. ^<<^
well, that's convenient, because the really salient points came after that. I was simply listing some of those guys as options, but the key elements are: rainey/demps will approximately equal harvin, and cooper will step up into louis murphy's role. additionally, hernandez is going to have a HUGE year.
But i see where you are coming from dismissing the rest of the post, because I wouldn't want to have to answer for monte kiffin's results at home against a mediocre UCLA squad and a freshman QB either
PS ---->
Florida has played 2 horrible opponents neither of them BCS schools, and Tennessee has played 1 horrible opponent and 1 Pac-10 school. Here is the defensive comparison:
Rushing defense: Tennessee ranks #20 (59 yards per game), Florida #38 (85 yards per game)
Passing defense: Tennessee #3 (75 yards per game thorugh the air), Florida #29 (147 yards per game through the air).
Total Defense #3, Florida #22.
Tennessee has much better stats vs. better competition. You want Monte Kiffin to answer for being the #3 total defense in the nation? Maybe Charlie Strong should answer for why subpar teams have been able to move the ball better than this pathetic Monte Kiffin guy.
