My wayward son. You have forsaken the grizzled and knarled father who gave you life. Thrown the Chosen One to the curb. You are now paying the price for being a F Head.
I understand that you and OxBoy will be in attendance at the castration of The Smokey Mountain School for the Dentally Impaired on saturday. Be sure to wear your JORTS proudly.
:toast: Grasshopper Coach LT2* Florida/Tennessee Under 51.5 -110
This will be a heavily bet game because everyone and their grandmother circled this play on their calendar once Lane Kiffin started talking trash this offseason. It has been well documented. Urban Meyer's blowout retaliation + 4th quarter timeouts of the Georgia celebration has been well documented. The Gators bulletin board in their lockerroom saying "97 days till Tennessee" has been well documented this summer. Florida has focused on this game for a long time. It is big for Florida, the other SEC teams, etc to show up the Volunteers. Tennessee is recruiting well, and all of those promises that the Vols make to recruits, all of those things that the Vols say on recruiting trips and on TV becomes a joke if they go out there and get rolled by Florida and start the season 1-2. If you are going to talk it, you have to be able to walk it. Urban Meyer knows this, and he will make every effort to blow these guys out.
Urban Meyer is college's best coach, and big on retaliation. That is why many bettors feel no spread is big enough. He will fire away, fire away and fire away some more. The problem is, that is what it is going to take to WIN this game alone. Once you think the win is already in the bag, and you are worried about running it up, you are in a bad state of mind.
Florida has looked unstoppable in their 2 exhibition games, and Tennessee is now coming off a loss to UCLA. If they cant beat UCLA how they can beat Florida? Simple: UT had a look ahead game. The same look ahead game that Ohio State had vs Navy before they played USC tough. Look ahead games happen all of the time, and you need to learn to mulligan them from your capping if you recognize them. You will see a different UT team this week, then the one that played vs. UCLA - bottom line.
So don't look into results of this seaosn just yet to determine why you should take who.
Instead, look at the fact that this is a RIVALRY game and will be HEATED.
You also need to look at the fact that the most underrated player in the history of the Florida Gators is Percy Harvin. If Tim Tebow wasn't conceived by the Virgin Mary back in 1988, Percy Harvin may have had a Heisman trophy and gotten more publicity. There were many times last season that the Florida offense stalled during SEC Play and even in the National Title, and during the SEC Title vs. Arkansas in 2006, and they needed a huge drive to go and win the game after all of the baby backs were stuffed, and it was Percy Harvin who was the savior to the offense - not Tim Tebow, not Chris Leak, not Aaron Hernandez. Percy Harvin was the go-to guy even as a freshman during both Gator National Title runs. Rainey, Brandon James, John Demps, aka the Baby Backs/speedy midgets have a tough time moving the pile, or getting hit hard and bouncing back up. They are great in open space, but in SEC play there isnt much of it. Rainey, Demps and co during their first two games have ripped off monster 50, 60 and 70 yard runs, and Tebow has hit wide open WRs in the end zone for easy scores as speedster WR Riley Cooper and co have just run by slower competition. That will not happen in this game with All-World safety Eric Berry back there. UFs WRs are also very GREEN with the departure of Harvin and Louis Murphy.
Expect more dinking and dunking by UFs offense, and a few 3 and outs and stalled drives as UTs intensity on defense, and new scheme will slow a Percy Harvin-less Gator offense in their first true test for their offense this season.
UFs defense believe it or not, not their offense, is the strength of this team. They have playmakers all over the field, they can stuff the run with beast future 1st rounder LB Brandon Spikes, they can rush the passer with speedy future 1st rounder Carlos Dunlap, they can defend the pass with stud corners and future 1st rounders Joe Haden and Janoris Jenkins, and they have playmakers in the secondary with Will Hill, Ahmad Black and big hitter Major Wright who may all get an NFL chance. Jonathan Crompton is having a tough time decoding much worse defenses than this, and look ahead or not, 4 INTs is never a good thing from your QB. Lane Kiffin's offensive production has been shitty, even with Oakland.
Tennessee's defense is installing the Tampa 2 that Monte Kiffin ran during his NFL tenure - a defense that gave NFL pro offenses fits. You better believe that Kiffin's NFL style defense will be able to at least slow this potent collegiate spread offense. Tennessee's first 2 games have been vs. bad competition, but both opponents have been held to less than 20 points. Tennessee's gameplan is to keep this game under control and winnable with their defense. Defense is the theme, they cant go score for score with Florida, and they need to do anything they can to confuse Tim Tebow, and shut down the baby backs to give themselves a chance at the end. No big plays for Florida, and make them earn every point has to be the theme here.
Tennessee wants an ugly, sloppy game not a track meet.
That being said, 25 points looks pretty high, and I'd recommend a very small play on Tennessee. However, I feel the UNDER is the better bet in this game.
Florida 31
Tennessee 13
This will be a heavily bet game because everyone and their grandmother circled this play on their calendar once Lane Kiffin started talking trash this offseason. It has been well documented. Urban Meyer's blowout retaliation + 4th quarter timeouts of the Georgia celebration has been well documented. The Gators bulletin board in their lockerroom saying "97 days till Tennessee" has been well documented this summer. Florida has focused on this game for a long time. It is big for Florida, the other SEC teams, etc to show up the Volunteers. Tennessee is recruiting well, and all of those promises that the Vols make to recruits, all of those things that the Vols say on recruiting trips and on TV becomes a joke if they go out there and get rolled by Florida and start the season 1-2. If you are going to talk it, you have to be able to walk it. Urban Meyer knows this, and he will make every effort to blow these guys out.
Urban Meyer is college's best coach, and big on retaliation. That is why many bettors feel no spread is big enough. He will fire away, fire away and fire away some more. The problem is, that is what it is going to take to WIN this game alone. Once you think the win is already in the bag, and you are worried about running it up, you are in a bad state of mind.
Florida has looked unstoppable in their 2 exhibition games, and Tennessee is now coming off a loss to UCLA. If they cant beat UCLA how they can beat Florida? Simple: UT had a look ahead game. The same look ahead game that Ohio State had vs Navy before they played USC tough. Look ahead games happen all of the time, and you need to learn to mulligan them from your capping if you recognize them. You will see a different UT team this week, then the one that played vs. UCLA - bottom line.
So don't look into results of this seaosn just yet to determine why you should take who.
Instead, look at the fact that this is a RIVALRY game and will be HEATED.
You also need to look at the fact that the most underrated player in the history of the Florida Gators is Percy Harvin. If Tim Tebow wasn't conceived by the Virgin Mary back in 1988, Percy Harvin may have had a Heisman trophy and gotten more publicity. There were many times last season that the Florida offense stalled during SEC Play and even in the National Title, and during the SEC Title vs. Arkansas in 2006, and they needed a huge drive to go and win the game after all of the baby backs were stuffed, and it was Percy Harvin who was the savior to the offense - not Tim Tebow, not Chris Leak, not Aaron Hernandez. Percy Harvin was the go-to guy even as a freshman during both Gator National Title runs. Rainey, Brandon James, John Demps, aka the Baby Backs/speedy midgets have a tough time moving the pile, or getting hit hard and bouncing back up. They are great in open space, but in SEC play there isnt much of it. Rainey, Demps and co during their first two games have ripped off monster 50, 60 and 70 yard runs, and Tebow has hit wide open WRs in the end zone for easy scores as speedster WR Riley Cooper and co have just run by slower competition. That will not happen in this game with All-World safety Eric Berry back there. UFs WRs are also very GREEN with the departure of Harvin and Louis Murphy.
Expect more dinking and dunking by UFs offense, and a few 3 and outs and stalled drives as UTs intensity on defense, and new scheme will slow a Percy Harvin-less Gator offense in their first true test for their offense this season.
UFs defense believe it or not, not their offense, is the strength of this team. They have playmakers all over the field, they can stuff the run with beast future 1st rounder LB Brandon Spikes, they can rush the passer with speedy future 1st rounder Carlos Dunlap, they can defend the pass with stud corners and future 1st rounders Joe Haden and Janoris Jenkins, and they have playmakers in the secondary with Will Hill, Ahmad Black and big hitter Major Wright who may all get an NFL chance. Jonathan Crompton is having a tough time decoding much worse defenses than this, and look ahead or not, 4 INTs is never a good thing from your QB. Lane Kiffin's offensive production has been shitty, even with Oakland.
Tennessee's defense is installing the Tampa 2 that Monte Kiffin ran during his NFL tenure - a defense that gave NFL pro offenses fits. You better believe that Kiffin's NFL style defense will be able to at least slow this potent collegiate spread offense. Tennessee's first 2 games have been vs. bad competition, but both opponents have been held to less than 20 points. Tennessee's gameplan is to keep this game under control and winnable with their defense. Defense is the theme, they cant go score for score with Florida, and they need to do anything they can to confuse Tim Tebow, and shut down the baby backs to give themselves a chance at the end. No big plays for Florida, and make them earn every point has to be the theme here.
Tennessee wants an ugly, sloppy game not a track meet.
That being said, 25 points looks pretty high, and I'd recommend a very small play on Tennessee. However, I feel the UNDER is the better bet in this game.
Florida 31
Tennessee 13
Thank you for giving props to Percy Harvin. I live in the Atlanta area and even though I'm not a Gator fan I have been telling people the last three years that Percy Harvin was more important than Tim Tebow and some people would look at me like I committed a sin against The Holy Tebow. I'm glad a true "Gator" fan agrees with me. BOL.
I can't say that Percy Harvin was overall MORE important than Tebow, but it was damn closer than people give him credit for. Tebow obviously touches the ball every play, he rarely turns it over, and he is a threat doing it all. But Harvin is the one that made this team move the ball when they needed it most. Just hand it to Percy in the National Title game, or in the 2006 SEC Championship game and so on and he always came through after the baby backs were stuffed trying to spell him.
UT won't play Tampa 2 vs UF - they haven't had enough time to learn it and more importantly they don't have the personnel to run it. Also, even Jon Gruden said Tampa 2 is very vulnerable to a spread option attack.
I also do not buy the look ahead excuse for UT. They were looking for a little revenge for last year and got punked again. The simple truth is that UTs defense is just plain ole average. Their lbers are a little on the slow side except for McCoy and their DL is so-so. Outside of Berry, the DBs flat out stink. Don't look at what they did vs UCLA and WKU. WKU had 59! frosh on their roster so they we quite literally a high sxhool team and UCLA was playing a frosh QB and at least 2 frosh OL. Even so, UT was completely incapable of defending the perimeter as they were beaten off tackle the entire game - and even by the QB on rollouts.
UFs offense isn't as good bec Harvin is gone, but I think it actually makes them a little harder to game plan. I also think the OL is maybe the best in the country. If UF only scores 31 I'll be disappointed and I feel quite comfortable in saying that UT will not score more than 10 unless they get another pick6 from Berry. The fact is they wouldn't have scored a TD against UCLA if not for a turnover deep in UCLA territory. That's horrible. UT only mustered 13 on offense with Ainge in 07 and we all know how awful that defense was. Also UCLA was forced to settle for 4 FGs, 3 in the RZ. You know as well as I do that = TDs for UF. So just equating UCLAs possessions and make one possession a fg, that is 31 points for UF.
I think a play could be to tease it to UF -23, Over 45.5. I just can't see UT doing much of anything in this game...on either side of the ball. But like I said before, I've been wrong on pretty much every play this year.
I also do not buy the look ahead excuse for UT. They were looking for a little revenge for last year and got punked again. The simple truth is that UTs defense is just plain ole average. Their lbers are a little on the slow side except for McCoy and their DL is so-so. Outside of Berry, the DBs flat out stink. Don't look at what they did vs UCLA and WKU. WKU had 59! frosh on their roster so they we quite literally a high sxhool team and UCLA was playing a frosh QB and at least 2 frosh OL. Even so, UT was completely incapable of defending the perimeter as they were beaten off tackle the entire game - and even by the QB on rollouts.
UFs offense isn't as good bec Harvin is gone, but I think it actually makes them a little harder to game plan. I also think the OL is maybe the best in the country. If UF only scores 31 I'll be disappointed and I feel quite comfortable in saying that UT will not score more than 10 unless they get another pick6 from Berry. The fact is they wouldn't have scored a TD against UCLA if not for a turnover deep in UCLA territory. That's horrible. UT only mustered 13 on offense with Ainge in 07 and we all know how awful that defense was. Also UCLA was forced to settle for 4 FGs, 3 in the RZ. You know as well as I do that = TDs for UF. So just equating UCLAs possessions and make one possession a fg, that is 31 points for UF.
I think a play could be to tease it to UF -23, Over 45.5. I just can't see UT doing much of anything in this game...on either side of the ball. But like I said before, I've been wrong on pretty much every play this year.
There is no doubt in my mind that UCLA was a look ahead game regardless of the results from last year. Just because UCLA beat Tennessee last year doesnt mean Tennessee wasnt looking forward to the Gator game. Lane Kiffin wasnt there last year so what does he care if they lost to UCLA, especially when Tennessee lost to just about everyone last year.
When Kiffin takes the UT job, priority number 1 is to beat UF. If they win the Florida game, they are likely in the driver seat for the SEC East. The most important game of the season for the Vols is UF, and the week before they play some west coast team that they don't know about, read about or care about. I bet almost half the kids on the Tennessee roster dont even know what UCLA stands for.
To me, UT was not prepared to play UCLA. That screams mulligan to me, and again, it throws out a lot of the performance we witnessed from Tennesse on Saturday. I think we see a different UT team this weekend. Mind you, this team will continue to get better anyway while the season progresses and these guys get comfortable with the new system.
I admire your attempts to be objective here, But i think you are being way too bearish on the FL offense this year. last time in the swamp in 2007, we hung 59 on em, and last year it was 30 in their place, before the offense really even started clicking. Of course harvin will be missed, but rainey and demps really do have similar skill sets (maybe not the route running and hands, but look for cooper to step up big there)..but don't forget who else we lost - dan freaking mullen! so no more "spin the wheel of tebow and harvin" playcalling. The attack really looked sharp against troy, and much more balanced than in years past.. and troy ain't too bad.
Finally, I think tenn's defense is a bit overrated here, but even if they are flying around making plays early, with tennessee's offense going up against the gator D and the resultant 3 and outs, the tennessee defense will be completely worn down as the game goes on..kind of like what happened to south carolina last year when they gave up 56 in the swamp...any defense will get worn out if their offense can't do jack shit. and crompton and co. will do exactly jack and shit. BOL with the under, but I still think FL might cover it by themselves...is tenn much better than they were in 2007 when they won the SEC east? Because I know florida sure is!
go gators!
Finally, I think tenn's defense is a bit overrated here, but even if they are flying around making plays early, with tennessee's offense going up against the gator D and the resultant 3 and outs, the tennessee defense will be completely worn down as the game goes on..kind of like what happened to south carolina last year when they gave up 56 in the swamp...any defense will get worn out if their offense can't do jack shit. and crompton and co. will do exactly jack and shit. BOL with the under, but I still think FL might cover it by themselves...is tenn much better than they were in 2007 when they won the SEC east? Because I know florida sure is!
go gators!
Hey,
You brought up a point in your explanation that I forgot to even bring up: Dan Mullen and Urban Meyer were bed buddies, darn near co-creators of this offense that UF runs. Mullen has been calling the plays for the last few years and takes off to Miss State. Addazio takes over as a rookie play caller, and he is going to take some time to adjust to the new defenses, new schemes, and new things he is going to see on Saturday. It doesn't really matter how crisp the offense looks vs. Troy. In fact, a few times Gator WRs literally just run a straight streak down the field and end up wide open for TDs. I dont consider that crisp as much as I consider it overmatched. Again, teams with tremendous safety play like Troy Palomalu, Eric Berry, etc can really make a difference in a game.
I think it's safe to say, and unarguable for that matter, that the rookie offensive coordinator Addazio does not hold Monte Kiffin's jockstrap right now. That includes experience, ability to make adjustments based on what is happening on the field, and ability to foil the other teams' gameplan and call the correct play. If calling plays is a chess match, Kiffin is the chessmaster and Addazio is a pimple faced teenager. (A pimple faced teenager with 2 queens!!)
I'm here to say front and center before it gets exposed a bit that the most overrated element of this game is the UF Offense. People, bettors, the media, fans, coaches, etc think UFs offense is this unstoppable force lead by the unstoppable man Tim Tebow. People, mainly Gator fans, are going to be in for a bit of a surprise when the UF offense has a few drives where they stall this year and there is no Percy Harvin to bail them out. It doesn't mean the offense will suck, I am hardly saying that. It's just not going to be as unstoppable as it has been. I'm here to say right now that Rainey and Demps are good players, that are elctric in open space, but to compare them to Percy Harvin is naive. Percy's vision, acceleration, football speed/game speed, cutback ability, ability to squeeze through tight spaces or take a hit and stay balanced, was some of the best in the history of this game and no offense to Demps and Rainey but they dont have what Percy had.
That means there will be points in this game and this season where those 2 guys will get popped, take their lumps, against good SEC defenses with good team speed and they have to be ability top make something happen. It wont happen as consistent as Percy was able to do it, and therefore the UF offense is overrated and overvalued.
Further there is no Louis Murphy to stretch the defense any more. I like Riley Cooper, he is an underrated WR, a tremendous blocker, etc, but his route running, ability to get separation and ability to come out of breaks is average, although his vertical straight ahead speed is very good.
I realize that the Gators have done no wrong lately, so I sound stupid, but in sports betting you have to be ahead of the curve before it happens.
If it isn't exposed this week, it will be eventually, IMO.
you make some good points, and I agree that there will be some bumps on the road this year- possibly starting as early as next week on the road in kentucky..but it will NOT be the vols that expose anything.
remember, in 2007 a much worse florida team that lost 4 games that year beat a much better tennessee team (that won the SEC east) 59-20 in this same game 2 years ago...59-20!!
I went to UF too (c/o '07), and you KNOW what a big deal this game is each year. Tennessee is the new georgia. And like georgia, We own them and they know it. This is the start of SEC play, the CBS 3:30 game (can't you just hear verne and gary and the sec on cbs theme song! god i am so fucking pumped!) and those hated vols..This game was huge before kiffin opened his mouth. But now...the energy in the swamp alone should be sufficient for urban to simply channel it through his hands into a big fireball and annihlate the vols himself with one well placed "HADOOOKEN"!
but seriously...how does this game set up any more favorably for the vols than it did in 2007?
Well, first off they are 2 different games, 2 different years, 2 different coaching staffs, 2 different sets of personnel, and 2 completely different sets of circumstances.
I'll play along though:
1. No Percy Harvin.
2. No Percy Harvin.
3. Brandon James returned a punt for a TD each of the past 2 years. Those are momentum killers, game changers, and back breakers. Obviously, chances are Brandon James will not be returning a punt back because percentages are against it and it's difficult to handicap for it.
4. The 59-20 game was a 1 score game halfway through the 3rd quarter. The game wasn't nearly as much of a blowout as the final score indicated. Florida outscored UT 24-0 in the 4th quarter once UT had thrown in the towel and stopped playing but it was a 28-20 game in the 3rd. That will not happen under a new head coach who is still "fresh" and the players are playing for playing time.
5. Tennessee has recruited better lately, and some of their talent is contributing. Eric Berry is 1 year older and is a big time impact player.
6. As bad as Crompton was last week, he is in his 2nd year as the starter, instead of his 1st.
7. Monte Kiffin, Monte Kiffin, Monte Kiffin. Pro coaches instead of Fat Fulmer running around.
