BOWL Season Thread

[ofred]

2* Nevada/ Colorado St. -under 55.5

These 2 teams scored a total of 13 points in their bowls last year. Nevada scored 3 vs. ULL, and CSU scored 10 vs. Utah. Almost no offense for either. Despite season averages and stats, the marginal bowl teams, with less than stellar offenses, tend to play conservative, be out of rhythm, or commit penalties/ mistakes that wouldn't happen during the regular season. I think Nevada slows this game down by running the ball often. They ran on about 62 % of their plays this year, but may increase that here to keep CSU off the field. Neither team has great QB play, although CSU's Nick Stevens is the better(though sometimes inconsistent) passer. Nevada has a bit of a chip on their shoulder having to play another Mt. West team in their bowl game, and they do have decent DL.

CSU also runs the ball often- at about a 58.5% rate, but they do have a star receiver that could cause problems for the Nevada secondary- Rashard Higgins. Higgins will go pro after this game for financial reasons. Will he risk catching one over the middle, risking injury and $$ in the draft? Maybe. But I think Nevada double covers him and takes their chances with the CSU running game. Nevada coach, Brian Polian, is a former defensive coach and I think can game plan given the extra time off. And although both teams run often, neither team has a real game-breaker RB. Nevada, though, runs the ball very effectively.

CSU is one of the most penalized teams in the NCAA. But they also have a very aggressive defense, being 12th nationally in TFL. One of these teams, if not both, struggles offensively here. I think when you see two teams that run often and have so-so QBs(Stevens maybe better than that), you see lower scoring bowl ​games.

 

[tnvolfan]

Fred have you had a chance to look at the C Mich Minn game? Leaning
C Mich +6 but haven't pulled the trigger yet.

 

[METFAN]

CONTINUED SUCCESS FRED..But aren't you concerned that Ncarolina has one of the worst run defenses in the country and Baylor had the #4 rushing offense..talk about a "RUNNING DOG" play. Also I thought in big spots it's been Hood to carry the team and Williams has actually choked. He was horrible in the ACC Championship game

anyway good luck on the rest

 

[ofred]

Fred have you had a chance to look at the C Mich Minn game? Leaning
C Mich +6 but haven't pulled the trigger yet.

Looked, but can't find a play.

 

[ofred]

CONTINUED SUCCESS FRED..But aren't you concerned that Ncarolina has one of the worst run defenses in the country and Baylor had the #4 rushing offense..talk about a "RUNNING DOG" play. Also I thought in big spots it's been Hood to carry the team and Williams has actually choked. He was horrible in the ACC Championship game

anyway good luck on the rest

Baylor might have more running yards, but UNC right now(with Linwood out) are probably the better running team. Williams did have a bad game vs. Clemson, but Clemson has a very good D, and they still only lost by 8. Williams has played so well this season, that he is a an absolute asset to UNC. Also, remember, Baylor has 4 key playmakers out on offense, and their RT. UNC upbeat about their season, Baylor disappointed. Every bet is a risk and feel free to fade.

 

[Incubus]

4* Navy/ Pitt- under 53
Pitt has got to be one of the more conservative offenses I've seen. Slow to huddle, slow to the line of scrimmage, and then a lot of runs and short passes. About 60% run plays, and their QB, Peterman, is definitely more of a dink and dunk passer. Most of their games have been low scoring affairs, with a couple of outliers(Louisville, ND). They are good running team, and will stick to it even when behind, but they do miss star RB James Conner. They are also coached by the former great DC of Michigan State, Pat Narduzzi. He has ingrained in his team a certain physical style of play that has helped make Pitt defensive-minded, and a punishing running team.

Navy also has one of their best defenses in years, having a number of great D efforts(holding Memphis to 20, USF to 17, Air Force to 11, Tulsa to 21). I think in bowl games we'll see the best of defenses that are well rested, not tired after many weeks without byes. We also see offenses that can come out a little rusty 1H. Also, Pitt and Navy are not the type of teams that will throw a flurry of passes in a 4th quarter back and forth which happens with more pass-happy teams. Navy runs very effectively, but runs a lot. Lots of time draining off the clock…same as Pitt. I also think Pitt will have the time to prep for the Navy triple option offense, and have played Georgia Tech- a similar offense. Pitt has the 20th ranked, and Navy the 32nd ranked, rushing defense.

Neither team turns the ball over much and therefore less chance of a pick 6 or a short-field score(after a TO). Cool, possible showers expected. I think we'll see the defenses shine and running games predominate here. Physical and low scoring.

Outstanding exceptional in-depth analysis and reasoning behind this totals play. k:

I'm with you on the UNDER 53 in this Pittsburgh-Navy game!
Best of luck, O FRED! Let's get this one to cash for us! :toast:

 

[ofred]

Terrible start. First a kickoff return, then an absent Pitt defense. Need some punts and/or FGs.

 

[gskiman]

Terrible start. First a kickoff return, then an absent Pitt defense. Need some punts and/or FGs.

or missed Pitt FGs.
and long time consuming Navy TD drives with no scoring by Pitt

 

[ofred]

Due for a loss. Those linebackers on both teams looked like they were playing in cement shoes. The UNC line is now at -3.5 in some places.

 

[cashflow50]

will it still be a play at 3.5 fred?

 

[ofred]

will it still be a play at 3.5 fred?

Why did you wait? It's been at 2.5 for so long. I'd pay the juice down to 3, but maybe lower my units.

 

[ofred]

I have to make my plays chronologically. It helps me focus since there are SO many bowl games. But on this one, I'm going to jump ahead until Thursday. Not a big write-up, but I really like:

5* Clemson +4 (-118)
2* Clemson ML (+160)

Going to ride with Clemson through the playoffs. Yeah, I love the Baker Mayfield story too. Who wouldn't? But Deshaun Watson will be the better QB and playmaker on that field. I have a weakness for players like Watson, Boykin, and Mariota. They're not just great players, they make it nearly impossible to defend them. Also, I think Swinney will have his team looser and motivated to win as underdogs and to continue their perfect season. Bob Stoops deserves a lot of credit for this year, but he's been known to get "tight", lose his temper, and lose confidence in his team. Most of all, I really am a believer that Clemson DC, Brent Venables, might be one of the best at defensive coaching/ game planning in the country. I also don't think Oklahoma has seen a defense nearly this good, nor does Oklahoma play D at Clemson's level. Got the +4 paying the juice, but the ML play will pay off well. May up the ML by Thursday.

Will update my record after tomorrow's games.

 

[ofred]

Surprised at how many posters are just now finding out who is playing and not playing for Baylor. UNC still a good play at -3.

4* USC -3 (-125)

Went round and round with this play, but ultimately I think the USC players are very good at coping with chaos and change. That will serve them well here after all the coaching changes, and a loss to Stanford in the PAC 12 CG. They are not head hangers. I also think they're disappointed in themselves for not winning the CG for Helton, who they overwhelmingly supported for the head coaching job. USC has their flaws, but if they come to play, and I think they will(in San Diego with lots of fans and a great place to recruit), they could cover the 3 by a decent amount. In games where they were ON, they lit up ND's defense, blew out UCLA and Utah, and destroyed ASU. I also can see Wisconsin winning, but only in a very close game. In my observations of USC, they were a mess in the Sark days- on, off, on, off again. They also really struggle with teams like Stanford, with great OL, running game and a pretty good QB like Hogan. But….

Wisconsin is not what they used to be. Better defense, but their OL is nothing like its glory days. Injuries and graduation of their NFL talent have left them mediocre there. Melvin G is gone, and I know Clements is playing, but other than his good game vs. a crappy Rutgers defense, he's done nothing. Joel Stave is a steady hand at QB, and is good on the short safe passes, but he does have 11 int. to 10 TDs, 21 sacks and is not a running threat. Good story, but I don't like pocket QBs who are facing a fast pass rush without much of a running game, and doesn't pass spectacularly.

The Badgers have one of the best statistical Ds in the country, but never played Ohio State, MSU, Michigan or Indiana. Also, they didn't exactly swamp the weaker Big 10 teams even though they had great field position due to their defense in many situations. Their lousy ats record reflects that. I'm also not a huge fan of Paul Chryst, an OC who doesn't seem all that innovative on offense, and was a meh hire that was more a case of Barry Alvarez wanting someone who would do things HIS way. USC comes to play amid the upheavals because that's nothing new for them.

 

[cashflow50]

my local has his stuck at bay-4...wtf..should i slam this

 

[indiana]

Fred..........appreciate the time, effort and thoughts you've provided us this past season...........Happy New Year to you and your family..............good luck today..........indy

 

[ofred]

my local has his stuck at bay-4...wtf..should i slam this

Lots of early sharp money came in on UNC, and now some sharp money coming in on Baylor. But UNC +4 looks too good to be true.

 

[cashflow50]

i had to do a double take when i got the lines

 

[ofred]

Brilliant game plan by Art Briles. This could be the NEW offense when you don't have a real QB option, but an assortment of runners and wildcat formations. Line change seemed to reflect bettors(?) that knew this was coming. It's like watching Baylor run through North Texas out there. UNC, where's the adjustment?

 

[ofred]

2* Louisville -4.5

I'm going with Bobby Petrino and the fact that Lamar Jackson will have extra practices to refine his passing game a bit. Petrino should be able to prep his team for this one game showdown with the sh*t show that is A&M. Petrino is a great offensive mind that has done a good job with the high turnover and moderate recruiting talent at Louisville. Lamar Jackson might be allowed to open up his game here- what have they got to lose? Jackson is a one-man highlight reel at times, and I think Petrino will use him to run at times on roll outs, draws, play action, and other plays to get other offensive players open.

A&M is going with 3rd string QB, Jake Hubenak, who is not that mobile nor much of a long passing threat. I also think there is a bit of disgust within the locker room at A&M with how the school/ team lost their 2 starting QBs, and probably with OC Jake Spavital and Sumlin's personal behavior off the field. A&M has the talent to make this a game, but will they show up? The end of their season wasn't promising. Tra Carson, their go to back, has completely different stats in games vs. the better teams(so-so) and the lower tier defenses(nice stats). The game is in Nashville so Louisville should have a nice contingent of fans.

 

[ofred]

2* Louisville -4.5

I'm going with Bobby Petrino and the fact that Lamar Jackson will have extra practices to refine his passing game a bit. Petrino should be able to prep his team for this one game showdown with the sh*t show that is A&M. Petrino is a great offensive mind that has done a good job with the high turnover and moderate recruiting talent at Louisville. Lamar Jackson might be allowed to open up his game here- what have they got to lose? Jackson is a one-man highlight reel at times, and I think Petrino will use him to run at times on roll outs, draws, play action, and other plays to get other offensive players open.

A&M is going with 3rd string QB, Jake Hubenak, who is not that mobile nor much of a long passing threat. I also think there is a bit of disgust within the locker room at A&M with how the school/ team lost their 2 starting QBs, and probably with OC Jake Spavital and Sumlin's personal behavior off the field. A&M has the talent to make this a game, but will they show up? The end of their season wasn't promising. Tra Carson, their go to back, has completely different stats in games vs. the better teams(so-so) and the lower tier defenses(nice stats). The game is in Nashville so Louisville should have a nice contingent of fans.

​3* not a 2*