Thanks Indy. I hope your Christmas was fun. Now that I've had a little Christmas cheer(without families, alcohol wouldn't be necessary), follow at your own peril…..
4* Navy/ Pitt- under 53
Pitt has got to be one of the more conservative offenses I've seen. Slow to huddle, slow to the line of scrimmage, and then a lot of runs and short passes. About 60% run plays, and their QB, Peterman, is definitely more of a dink and dunk passer. Most of their games have been low scoring affairs, with a couple of outliers(Louisville, ND). They are good running team, and will stick to it even when behind, but they do miss star RB James Conner. They are also coached by the former great DC of Michigan State, Pat Narduzzi. He has ingrained in his team a certain physical style of play that has helped make Pitt defensive-minded, and a punishing running team.
Navy also has one of their best defenses in years, having a number of great D efforts(holding Memphis to 20, USF to 17, Air Force to 11, Tulsa to 21). I think in bowl games we'll see the best of defenses that are well rested, not tired after many weeks without byes. We also see offenses that can come out a little rusty 1H. Also, Pitt and Navy are not the type of teams that will throw a flurry of passes in a 4th quarter back and forth which happens with more pass-happy teams. Navy runs very effectively, but runs a lot. Lots of time draining off the clock…same as Pitt. I also think Pitt will have the time to prep for the Navy triple option offense, and have played Georgia Tech- a similar offense. Pitt has the 20th ranked, and Navy the 32nd ranked, rushing defense.
Neither team turns the ball over much and therefore less chance of a pick 6 or a short-field score(after a TO). Cool, possible showers expected. I think we'll see the defenses shine and running games predominate here. Physical and low scoring.
7* North Carolina -2.5
This line has got to be a nightmare for the books. Opened at Baylor -3, and now closing in on UNC -3. Imagine if UNC wins by 3 with all the late money coming in on them? Usually I'm hesitant on betting the -2.5(like Indiana and WSU), but in this case I think the books are protecting themselves from Baylor at +3, or maybe even +3.5, but also having to pay off the UNC bettors who took anywhere from +3 to -2.5. Anyways, the players and teams don't care one whit about the spread, so here's why UNC wins here:
I think Baylor was overrated even before all the injuries. They played a very easy schedule early on so nobody really knew how good they were(SMU, Lamar, a very bad Rice team, Texas Tech(no defense), Kansas, a reeling WVU team at home, Iowa State, probably the weakest K ST. team in years and won that by 7). Baylor's 8-0 put them in the spotlight as a NC contender before they played even one tough team. The media purred about just how good they were, how their offense was unstoppable. The perception even after losing a few games was that they can score 50 with their eyes closed. I'm not buying it. They lose to Oklahoma at home, beat a defense-less OK St. team by 10(but still a promising win), lose to a Josh Doctson-less TCU team in the monsoon, and then came out flat vs. Texas, giving up 3 scores right off the bat.
Their defense has been exposed. Good DL, average secondary, and a fairly weak linebacking corps. And I know that they run plays at light speed, but with Chris Johnson at QB, I think their offense will be a little less creative…and explosive. Another major loss is WR Corey Coleman and his 20 TDs (yes, 20!). He might be the top WR taken in next year's NFL draft. Shock Linwood, their top RB is out, although his backups are fairly good. But Linwood is the most likely to break the "big run". Now their starting RT is out for the bowl game. Chris Johnson is the X factor. He threw 2 long balls in the OK St. game, going 5 for 10. Then played in the monsoon game, having a rough time, then threw a few short passes vs. Texas before getting injured. He'll have to be amazingly good for Baylor to win here.
UNC gets no respect. All year, until the Clemson game, the spreads have been low as they continued to blow out one team after another. And much better teams than Baylor played. Marquise Williams has become a stud playmaker. He can roll out and pass, run as called play, run when flushed out, or pass in the pocket. This offense can explode for big plays and comes out early ready to play. They have a great OL and no weaknesses as far as I can tell. I think they have had time to get over their Clemson loss, and are feeling good about their season(they should- they far exceeded expectations). They also get to play a high profile team in the bowl. UNC's defense is strong vs. the pass, and a bend don't break outfit that tackles well. They practice well, and stay positive, with good veteran leadership.
Baylor has been pretty mediocre in recent bowls even with their best teams. I have to feel they are let down by their season's end, and their key injuries.
This line has got to be a nightmare for the books. Opened at Baylor -3, and now closing in on UNC -3. Imagine if UNC wins by 3 with all the late money coming in on them? Usually I'm hesitant on betting the -2.5(like Indiana and WSU), but in this case I think the books are protecting themselves from Baylor at +3, or maybe even +3.5, but also having to pay off the UNC bettors who took anywhere from +3 to -2.5. Anyways, the players and teams don't care one whit about the spread, so here's why UNC wins here:
I think Baylor was overrated even before all the injuries. They played a very easy schedule early on so nobody really knew how good they were(SMU, Lamar, a very bad Rice team, Texas Tech(no defense), Kansas, a reeling WVU team at home, Iowa State, probably the weakest K ST. team in years and won that by 7). Baylor's 8-0 put them in the spotlight as a NC contender before they played even one tough team. The media purred about just how good they were, how their offense was unstoppable. The perception even after losing a few games was that they can score 50 with their eyes closed. I'm not buying it. They lose to Oklahoma at home, beat a defense-less OK St. team by 10(but still a promising win), lose to a Josh Doctson-less TCU team in the monsoon, and then came out flat vs. Texas, giving up 3 scores right off the bat.
Their defense has been exposed. Good DL, average secondary, and a fairly weak linebacking corps. And I know that they run plays at light speed, but with Chris Johnson at QB, I think their offense will be a little less creative…and explosive. Another major loss is WR Corey Coleman and his 20 TDs (yes, 20!). He might be the top WR taken in next year's NFL draft. Shock Linwood, their top RB is out, although his backups are fairly good. But Linwood is the most likely to break the "big run". Now their starting RT is out for the bowl game. Chris Johnson is the X factor. He threw 2 long balls in the OK St. game, going 5 for 10. Then played in the monsoon game, having a rough time, then threw a few short passes vs. Texas before getting injured. He'll have to be amazingly good for Baylor to win here.
UNC gets no respect. All year, until the Clemson game, the spreads have been low as they continued to blow out one team after another. And much better teams than Baylor played. Marquise Williams has become a stud playmaker. He can roll out and pass, run as called play, run when flushed out, or pass in the pocket. This offense can explode for big plays and comes out early ready to play. They have a great OL and no weaknesses as far as I can tell. I think they have had time to get over their Clemson loss, and are feeling good about their season(they should- they far exceeded expectations). They also get to play a high profile team in the bowl. UNC's defense is strong vs. the pass, and a bend don't break outfit that tackles well. They practice well, and stay positive, with good veteran leadership.
Baylor has been pretty mediocre in recent bowls even with their best teams. I have to feel they are let down by their season's end, and their key injuries.
1* Air Force +7
Was thinking "over" for this play being that both defenses are not used to the offenses they'll be facing, and that might be the right play??? But AF doesn't usually get into shootouts due to the fact that their offense has these time-consuming long drives that end with a score of some kind. Cal has a very weak run defense and red zone defense, so I can see this happening again. It's only a 1* because AF broke up their practice schedule so that the majority of practices were not the ones before the game. AF also plays a bend but not break defense, and might allow CAL the shorter gains, but not the longer ones.
I just think Air Force is more excited about this game. Cal is finally getting to a bowl game, but this isn't exactly what they had in mind playing a military academy in Fort Worth. Cal is missing Michael Barton, their best LB, and some other defensive depth. They'll have to deal with not only the triple option with the AF QB, Roberts, but also Jacobi Owens, and newcomer Tim Mcvey- who has about a 9 YPC average and many late season TDs. Mcvey could be a difference maker. Cal has had many distractions with Dykes contract, Goff and others going pro, and the recruiting schedule for coaches. They'll lose 5 of 6 of their WRs(likely) after this season. Sometimes these players(and Goff) can be looking ahead to their NFL considerations. Maybe a 2* later on.
Was thinking "over" for this play being that both defenses are not used to the offenses they'll be facing, and that might be the right play??? But AF doesn't usually get into shootouts due to the fact that their offense has these time-consuming long drives that end with a score of some kind. Cal has a very weak run defense and red zone defense, so I can see this happening again. It's only a 1* because AF broke up their practice schedule so that the majority of practices were not the ones before the game. AF also plays a bend but not break defense, and might allow CAL the shorter gains, but not the longer ones.
I just think Air Force is more excited about this game. Cal is finally getting to a bowl game, but this isn't exactly what they had in mind playing a military academy in Fort Worth. Cal is missing Michael Barton, their best LB, and some other defensive depth. They'll have to deal with not only the triple option with the AF QB, Roberts, but also Jacobi Owens, and newcomer Tim Mcvey- who has about a 9 YPC average and many late season TDs. Mcvey could be a difference maker. Cal has had many distractions with Dykes contract, Goff and others going pro, and the recruiting schedule for coaches. They'll lose 5 of 6 of their WRs(likely) after this season. Sometimes these players(and Goff) can be looking ahead to their NFL considerations. Maybe a 2* later on.
