BOWL Season Thread

[ofred]

4* Utah St/ Akron- under 47 This number actually is very generous considering how bad Akron's offense is, and how much Utah State's offense has sputtered even against Mt. West teams. I think it would be lower if a regular season game. First, let me say that Akron has struggled to score against teams like Ohio, Kent, UMass, BG, and other less than stalwart defenses. Akron is a really conservative, run-heavy offense. And they are happy to drive 65 yards over seven minutes and kick a FG. Their QB, Woodson, is about a 52% passer, with worse passing numbers vs. the better competition. Akron also didn't play NIU, Toledo, or WMU this year. They had a dream schedule in the MAC. But their defense, especially their defensive front is pretty good.

Utah State no longer has the dynamic Chuckie Keaten(51%, with 3 TDs and 6 int.) anymore. Probably because of multiple injuries, a bad OL, and a lack of playmakers on offense. They also run the ball a lot, probably more than Akron. After beating Boise mid-season, they have gone 2-4, and looked flat and uninterested. Their D is not what it used to be, but it should have no trouble with Akron. They have a defensive pride and always get up for bowl games. Should be miserable weather in Boise on Tuesday.

 

[bully07]

Bol

 

[indiana]

Fred............strong looking card..........BOL with all your action today.............indy

 

[ofred]

Fred............strong looking card..........BOL with all your action today.............indy

Thanks Indy. I'm still looking at adjusting units for 1 or 2 games.

 

[ofred]

App. St. has dominated this game, and Ohio has done almost nothing on offense. Yet still just 7-0. Please….no more 2 yard passes with 5 to go.

 

[fballgenius]

Amen, fred

 

[DatSmell7]

Yes fred app should be up by 3 possessions. Definitely the better team. BOL this bowl season. Always enjoy your write ups.

 

[ofred]

App. St. has dominated this game, and Ohio has done almost nothing on offense. Yet still just 7-0. Please….no more 2 yard passes with 5 to go.

Spoke too soon. Bang, bang- turnovers leads to a quick 14.

 

[rekt]

2h?

 

[ofred]

2h?

Not a play, but I put a little something on it.

 

[ofred]

3-1 day. +10.6 units, and App State WAS a good play. One less TO and they cover, 2 less TOs and they easily cover. Overall: 5-2, +12.3 units.

 

[ofred]

8* SD St. -1.5 So Gunner Kiel has personal problems and can't play. Fine… He's NFL material anyways. Hayden Moore is a very capable backup. Or is he? Yes, I know he broke a record passing for 557 yards vs. Memphis, but they don't play defense much. And games like that tend to exaggerate the myth that he's a stud QB who will win games all on his own. But if you take out that and the Miami, FL game(at home), he's not nearly as good as you think. Or is it that Cinn. is so weak in other areas that makes them lose games? Like almost by 40 to USF. Or by 14 to BYU. He's a 58% passer, with 9 TDs and 8 int. He has 52 rushing attempts for 50 yards, and 13 sacks. He's not nearly mobile enough vs. this SD ST. defense, and now plays a bowl game in Hawaii as a freshman, with all the distractions that brings.

The Bearcats are the perfect opponent for SD St. The Aztecs are used to playing in Hawaii(they've already played a game there this season- winning it). SD St. has a super dynamo running game, which Cinn. will struggle to contain. 235 yards rushing per game, 13th in the nation, and about 5 yards per rush. They have a star in Donnell Pumphrey, and 2 other backups that also have game-breaking abilities. Cinn. is 92nd in rushing defense, and that's in a conference where passing is prevalent. The reason this spread is only -1.5 is that SD St. is also playing a redshirt freshman QB, Christian Chapman. But Chapman is more mobile than Maxwell Smith, the injured QB he's replacing. Smith was a 55% passer, who was good at playing it safe and not turning the ball over. But Chapman, with the great running game, and the poise to guide his team in winning the Mt. West title game, AND he almost beat Smith out of the starter job early on, will not be a drop off of much- if anything. It's almost like the injury factor. Other players play "up" knowing they have a somewhat inexperienced player in there.

SD St. also has a much better D than Cinn, never giving up more than 14 points in their last 9 games, except 24 to Air Force in the title game. A 9 Game winning streak. 13th nationally in passing D, and 9th in rushing defense. This is a team with momentum, whose last loss was on the road in Sept. at Penn State- where they were in the game until the 4th qtr. It's almost a different team. This play says SD St. wears the Bearcats down running the ball, passing when needed, and limits the Cinn. offense enough to cover a measly 1 and half points. I don't like teams like Cinn.(in bowl games) that depend so much on passing, and after a long lay-off might be off in timing, and run the ball so-so and play poor defense.

 

[ofred]

3* WMU/ MTSU- over 63.5 The key to this play is that both of these teams have 2 go-to receivers, and 2 very capable QBs. Also, MTSU has struggled mightily vs. strong offenses. They gave up a lot of yards and points to almost every team that was at least average this year- Marshall, FIU, WKU, La. Tech, and others. Even Vandy had their highest yardage total of the year vs. MTSU. But their defensive stats are skewed due to playing some really bad offensive teams- South Ala, Charlotte, Jackson St, UNT, FAU. Western Michigan, which has a good balance of run and pass, is the kind of team that should move the ball easily on MTSU. WMU played their last 8 games without a bye, and looked tired at the end. But they did show what they're capable of at times, scoring 35 on Toledo, the best D in the MAC. And 49 on Ohio and 41 on CMU, another good defense. QB Zach Terrell is also a dual threat, though he has better options in the backfield.

MTSU has found a jewel in redshirt freshman QB, Brent Stockstill. He's a 67% passer, with 27 TDs, 8 int, with good escapability, helping his team to a 17th NCAA passing ranking. He's the coach's son, and plays like a coach on the field. MTSU has discovered that passing is their way to success, which should help with clock stoppage. WMU is vulnerable on defense, and looked awful at times vs. the better MAC teams. 63.5 is a very reasonable number in a game with two teams that have good offensive playmakers, 2 accurate QBs, and two defenses that have struggled all year vs. better Os. Should be nice Bahama weather Thursday.

 

[ofred]

2* WKU/ USF- over 66.5

1* Teaser: WKU/ USF- over 58.5
Toledo/ Temple- under 59
Akron/ USU- under 55.5

I'll have a play or two on the unders later on. As for WKU and USF, we are seeing one offense(USF) that was red hot to end the season. They combine a great running attack, with Quinton Flowers' ability to move around the pocket, run on the fly, and pass off a scramble. He is extremely elusive and I don't think the WKU defense will be able to handle him AND Marlon Mack and the other runners for USF. WKU is an offense, that with the extra prep time, will also be dangerous. Though USF has decent defensive talent, WKU has everything on offense- a slew of playmaker receivers, a running attack, good OL, and the best pocket passer, arguably, in the country. In these big games, offenses like these tend to bring their A game, and add some new kinks that defenses haven't seen in their film study. I predict at least one explosive quarter here of 28-31 points that will make this over happen. Two very good QBs, both teams can run and pass very well, warm weather, a show-me type game- all the recipes of a lot of a shootout.

The 3rd qtr. was the explosive quarter. Seems many bowl teams need a half to warm up their passing game…BYU, WKU, La. Tech not so much, but it looked better 2nd H, App St...

 

[ofred]

4* Utah St/ Akron- under 47 This number actually is very generous considering how bad Akron's offense is, and how much Utah State's offense has sputtered even against Mt. West teams. I think it would be lower if a regular season game. First, let me say that Akron has struggled to score against teams like Ohio, Kent, UMass, BG, and other less than stalwart defenses. Akron is a really conservative, run-heavy offense. And they are happy to drive 65 yards over seven minutes and kick a FG. Their QB, Woodson, is about a 52% passer, with worse passing numbers vs. the better competition. Akron also didn't play NIU, Toledo, or WMU this year. They had a dream schedule in the MAC. But their defense, especially their defensive front is pretty good.

Utah State no longer has the dynamic Chuckie Keaten(51%, with 3 TDs and 6 int.) anymore. Probably because of multiple injuries, a bad OL, and a lack of playmakers on offense. They also run the ball a lot, probably more than Akron. After beating Boise mid-season, they have gone 2-4, and looked flat and uninterested. Their D is not what it used to be, but it should have no trouble with Akron. They have a defensive pride and always get up for bowl games. Should be miserable weather in Boise on Tuesday.

Cold, but not very wet in Boise. Can't imagine there would be a lot of fans. 18,000 last year for the bowl game. Not near a TV to see...

 

[WineO]

Looks like a lot less than 18,000 in the stands.

 

[ofred]

Nerve-wracking game, and glad to get the W. Overall: 7-2 +18.3 units

 

[ofred]

Counting on Temple to play conservatively, knowing their D is very good and can win this game.

 

[Addicted2quack]

Very nicely done so far.... You and I think a lot alike... Good luck sir

 

[ofred]

Very nicely done so far.... You and I think a lot alike... Good luck sir

Thanks Quack. I appreciate your write-ups. Good luck to you also.