bigdaveyt's Road to $20K -- Week 1 Plays

Wayyysmarter · Sep 7, 2009

Ok to protect my friend jimmy...
Lets think about this 10k BR want to double make 10k profit. Thats his goal. @ 4% Perplay all the same never changeing and being patient. You would haft to be plus
24 units on the year not includeing the juice.Lets say you play 100 games through the season and you stay diciplined that means you would need to hit 76% to double your money?

Doesnt work with a 10k bankroll you shouldnt be playing
unless 10% or more is to risk on each play.

This buisness sports wagering is as Highrisk as possible
the more you play bigger shot to lose.

Heres a perfect example of a NOOB or Square. He Bets 15 games for the week gos 10-5 on his best week.

To most this would seems awesome but really its negative. For instance lets say he bets 110 a play to make it easy. This square just put 1650 at risk
to make 250 bucks.

This advice comes from years of seeing people be dumb.
Lose lose lose and after they lose they lose some more.

Almost like they dont care.

Either step up and swing the bat, Or sit on the bench and watch everyone else run around the bases.

bigdaveyt · Sep 7, 2009

Purdue (+11) v Oregon
------------------------

Purdue took out Toledo 52-31 in their home opener. I didn't get a chance to watch this game, but I was monitoring the gamecast and Purdue seemed to be very impressive offensively from the start. The Boilermakers racked up 535 total yards with 315 on the ground and 220 in the air. RB Ralph Bolden gained 234 yards on 21 attempts and had 2 TDs. Jaycen Talylor added 2 TDs on 14 carries for 84 yards. Finally, QB Joey Elliot had 220 yards passing and went 17-28. He threw 3 TDs but threw 3 INTS as well. Recieving - Kevin Smith had 8 receptions for 117 yards and 1 TD. So how the hell did Toledo score so many points? Threw the AIR. The Rockets had a staggering 423 yards passing and 3 TDs with 2 INTs. The Boilermakers probably started subbing when they were up 45-21 in the 3rd quarter, but the Rockets still managed to score 21. Toledo had two reciever over 100 yards. Purdue is going to have to tighten it up against Oregon this week if they want to pull off the upset.

Oregon will slip to the mid #20s if not off the AP poll altogether after their loss to Boise St (19-8). The Ducks lost supposed star LeGarrette Blount (8 rushes for -5 yards, supposed star) due to a one punch he delivered to a Boise lineman. The punch was straight up gangster and completely uncalled for at the end of the game. I can see why he might have been pissed. I'd be pissed if I was supposed to be this great RB and rushed for -5 yards. But, the momentarily lapse in judgement turned into pure insanity when he continued to fight both players and coaches. I don't know if he will be missed, but I can only assume there will be some ripples in the Oregon offense.

Jeremiah Masoli was a highly touted QB this preseason. Lindy's had the Ducks backfield ranked in the top 10 due to Masoli and Blount. Masoli really didn't impress me in his opener against Boise. He threw 14 for 27 for 120 yards and 1 INT. I think he might do a little better against a Purdue defense as opposed to the stiff Boise defense. Blount was, at least, a good decoy and gave a running game threat to the Ducks. I don't know how much running they will do in this game. It is going to be pass, pass, pass, and more pass.

Purdue has the offensive weapons to make this game a shootout. In any shootout, I'll gladly take the points.

bigdaveyt · Sep 7, 2009

bigdaveyt said:
USC (-6) v OhioSt
---------------------

Don't like laying points at the Horseshoe, but I do not believe that OhioSt is all what they are hyped up to be. #6 in the nation, the Buckeyes narrowly avoided being upset by the Midshipman. Well, maybe it wasn't that narrow, but the Midshipman ran the ball very well (186 yards) on the Buckeyes. How did they do this? Triple Option. Like I stated in my last post, the option can be the most devastating play in colege football when run properly. OhioSt had a hell of a time containing Daniel Herron and Ricky Dobbs. Now, enter #4 USC. USC started slow against San Jose State. Real slow. In fact, SJSU was winning 3-0 at the end of the first. From then on it was all Trojans, scoring 28 14 14 respectively. The Trojans finished with 612 yards total offense with 343 on the ground and 278 in the air. The lone fg by SJSU was set up off of a poor 24 yard punt from the USC 10 to the USC 34. The Trojans gave up 112 yards in the air and only 9 on the ground. Clearly, the Trojan run defense is stronger then their passing defense.

Ok, now that I've talked about the openers. Let's talk about what happened last year. Domination. Domination happened last year.

The Buckeyes traveled across the country only to get their asses handed to them 35-3. Did Beanie get hurt in this game? Or was he already hurt? No matter, all we need to know was that he had 1 carry for -2 yards. Would a healthy Beanie Wells have made a big difference? I don't think so. Pesonally, I never though Beanie Well was that good of a player. Maybe I only saw him play when he was plague with injuries. I can't remember. What I do remember is that Mark Sanchez lit up the OhioSt seconary with 4 TDs and 1 INT. On the other hand QB Todd Boeckman passed for 82 yards and 2 INTs and was replaced by Terrel Pryor.

USC only returns 3 from the #1 defense. USC is a school that simply reloads. They have 2nd and 3rd team players who could easily start at many of the top 15 schools. IMO, Pete Caroll is a significantly better coach then Jim Tressel. Tressel fucked around last week and put Hauserman in when the Buckeyes went up quick against Navy. I understand the need to demo your 2nd team QB when you have a big lead, but come on, you almost cost your team the game (and you cost me 250 by .5 points). Hauser is not a good QB. If Pryor goes down, this could get ugly.

Final note. The Big Ten seems to be a very weak conference this year. Minny barely beat Syracuse, PSU didn't score in the 2nd half vs the Zips, Illinois got smoked by Mizz, and Wisconsin barely beat Northern Ill (28-20). The Pac 10 provide for a 56-3 USC blowout, Cal (I love this team) killing Maryland 52-14, Oregon St beatin Portland St 34-7, Stanford over Washington 39-13, UCLA 33-13 over SDST, Arizon St 50-3 over Idaho St, and Washington hanging with LSU 23-31. Albeit, some of the teams the Pac 10 played were not stellar, the Pac 10 seems to be one of the strongest conferences in the league.

Couple of Wagerline Stats:

USC is 10-1 ATS last 10 v Big Ten teams
USC is 14-5 ATS v teams with a winning record

OhioSt are 1-7 in last 8 at home.